1. Modeling the Impact of Climate Change on the Crop Yield.
- Author
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Pepelyaev, V. A., Golodnikov, A. N., and Golodnikova, N. A.
- Subjects
- *
CLIMATE change models , *AGRICULTURAL climatology , *CROP yields , *WHEAT , *DISTRIBUTION (Probability theory) - Abstract
The paper considers a problem of modeling the impact of the future climate on the yield of crops (in the example of spring wheat). The authors have analyzed the sources of climatic data and values of agrometeorological indicators for past and future periods. Using agroclimatic parameters, they have developed a mathematical model of the dependence of the median of the distribution function of spring wheat yield on climatic changes. The authors performed the calculations using this model and analyzed the obtained results. The analysis indicates a significant increase in the yield level of spring wheat in 2030–2040 and an increase in the risk of losses of its yield compared to historical data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2023
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