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2. Two-Stage Short-Term Power Load Forecasting Based on RFECV Feature Selection Algorithm and a TCN–ECA–LSTM Neural Network.
- Author
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Liang, Hui, Wu, Jiahui, Zhang, Hua, and Yang, Jian
- Subjects
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LOAD forecasting (Electric power systems) , *FEATURE selection , *CONVOLUTIONAL neural networks , *FORECASTING , *ALGORITHMS , *PREDICTION models , *LINEAR network coding - Abstract
To solve the problem of feature selection and error correction after mode decomposition and improve the ability of power load forecasting models to capture complex time series information, a two-stage short-term power load forecasting method based on recursive feature elimination with a cross validation (RFECV) algorithm and time convolution network–efficient channel attention mechanism–long short-term memory network (TCN–ECA–LSTM) is presented. First, the load sequence is decomposed into a relatively stable set of modal components using variational mode decomposition. Then, the RFECV-based method filters the feature set of each modal component to construct the best feature set. Finally, a two-stage prediction model based on TCN–ECA–LSTM is established. The first stage predicts each modal component and the second stage reconstructs the load forecast based on the predicted value of the previous stage. This paper takes actual data from New South Wales, Australia, as an example, and the results show that the method proposed in this paper can build the feature set reliably and efficiently and has a higher accuracy than the conventional prediction model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2023
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
3. The development of Future Health Today: piloting a new platform for identification and management of chronic disease in general practice.
- Author
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Hunter, Barbara, Alexander, Karyn, Biezen, Ruby, Hallinan, Christine Mary, Wood, Anna, Nelson, Craig, and Manski-Nankervis, Jo-Anne
- Subjects
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PILOT projects , *CHRONIC kidney failure , *EVALUATION of human services programs , *FAMILY medicine , *CHRONIC diseases , *MOTIVATION (Psychology) , *POINT-of-care testing , *SELF-evaluation , *MEDICAL care , *CONCEPTUAL structures , *PRIMARY health care , *HUMAN services programs , *PREVENTIVE health services , *FORECASTING , *QUALITY assurance , *RESEARCH funding , *ELECTRONIC health records , *TECHNOLOGY , *NEEDS assessment , *PATIENT care , *MEDICAL informatics , *ALGORITHMS , *DISEASE management - Abstract
Chronic disease identification and management is a significant issue in Australia, with general practice being the primary contact point for those at risk of, or living with, chronic disease. However, there is a well-described gap between guideline recommendations for chronic disease management and translation in the general practice setting. In 2018, a group of researchers, clinicians and software developers collaborated to develop a tool to support the identification and management of chronic disease in general practice, with the aim to create a platform that met the needs of general practice. The co-design process drew together core principles and expectations for the establishment of a technological platform, called Future Health Today (FHT), which would sit alongside the electronic medical record (EMR) management system within general practice. FHT used algorithms applied to EMR data to identify patients with, or at risk of, chronic disease and requiring review. Using chronic kidney disease as a clinical focus, the FHT prototype was piloted in a large, metropolitan general practice, and a large regional general practice. Based on user feedback, the prototype was further developed and improved. This paper provides a report on the key features and functionalities that participants identified and implemented in practice. Future Health Today is a new platform, co-designed by general practice for general practice, which aims to streamline the identification and management of chronic disease to improve health outcomes. This paper describes the development of the technology platform and how it was optimised through an implementation study in general practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2023
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
4. Multi-timescale photovoltaic power forecasting using an improved Stacking ensemble algorithm based LSTM-Informer model.
- Author
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Cao, Yisheng, Liu, Gang, Luo, Donghua, Bavirisetti, Durga Prasad, and Xiao, Gang
- Subjects
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PHOTOVOLTAIC power systems , *ALGORITHMS , *DATA visualization , *FORECASTING , *PREDICTION models - Abstract
As more and more photovoltaic (PV) systems are integrated into the grid, the intelligent operation of the grid system is facing significant challenges. Therefore, accurately forecasting PV power output at various time scales is particularly urgent. To meet this demand, this paper proposes an LSTM-Informer model based on an improved Stacking ensemble algorithm (ISt-LSTM-Informer). The proposed model improves the k-fold cross validation in the traditional Stacking algorithm to a time-series cross validation for integrating time-series forecasting models. Simultaneously, it utilizes long short-term memory (LSTM) and Informer as the base models. By integrating the advantages of the two base models, the ISt-LSTM-Informer achieves accurate short and medium-term PV power forecasting. To validate the effectiveness of the model, a historical dataset from a PV system located in Uluru, Australia, is used for various types of experiments. Among them, comparative experiments validate the superiority of the model. Compared with five other methods, the ISt-LSTM-Informer obtains 21 optimal results for the four evaluation metrics of RMSE, MAE, MAPE, and R 2 across eight forecasting time scales. In addition, different combinations of base models are conducted to verify the advantages of the Stacking ensemble algorithm and the two base models, respectively. • A novel multi-timescale photovoltaic power forecasting model is proposed. • Time-series cross validation is introduced into the Stacking algorithm. • LSTM and Informer are utilized as the base models of the Stacking algorithm. • Various methods are compared to verify the proposed model's effectiveness. • The model's predictive accuracy is illustrated through various visualization methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2023
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
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