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Background: CD4 cell counts is widely used as a biomarker for treatment progression when studying the efficacy of drugs to treat HIV-infected patients. In the past, it had been also used in determining eligibility to initiate antiretroviral therapy. The main aim of this was to model the evolution of CD4 counts over time and use this model for an early prediction of subject-specific time to cross a pre-specified CD4 threshold. Methods: Hospital based retrospective cohort study of HIV-infected patients was conducted from January 2009 to December 2014 at University of Gondar hospital, Northwest Ethiopia. Fractional polynomial random effect model is used to model the evolution of CD4 counts over time in response to treatment and to estimate the individual probability to be above a pre-selected CD4 threshold. Human subject research approval for this study was received from University of Gondar Research Ethics Committee and the medical director of the hospital. Results: A total of 1347 patients were included in the analysis presented in this paper. The cohort contributed a total of 236.58 per 100 person-years of follow-up. Later the data were divided into two periods: the first is the estimation period in which the parameters of the model are estimated and the second is the prediction period. Based on the parameters from the estimation period, model based prediction for the time to cross a threshold was estimated. The correlations between observed and predicted values of CD4 levels in the estimation period were 0.977 and 0.982 for Neverapine and Efavirenz containing regimens, respectively; while the correlation between the observed and predicted CD4 counts in the prediction period are 0.742 and 0.805 for NVP and EFV, respectively. Conclusions: The model enables us to estimate a subject-specific expected time to cross a CD4 threshold and to estimate a subject-specific probability to have CD4 count above a pre-specified threshold at each time point. By predicting long-term outcomes of CD4 count of the patients one can advise patient about the potential ART benefits that accrue in the long-term. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper evaluates the development impacts of migration and remittances in migrant source communities by applying insights from the New Economics of Labor Migration (NELM) theory to Ethiopia’s migration. Using household survey data, we empirically evaluate how household participation in migration arises and so that the subsequent labor losses and the influx of remittances affect income sources and asset accumulation of smallholder farm households. To account several econometric issues and consistently estimate the impacts of migration and remittances, we adopted three-stage least-squares method complemented with endogeneity and multicollinearity test. Besides, using logistic and multinomial logistic regressions respectively, we estimate the determinants of the household migration decision to have migrants, as well as the probability of the household to send out temporary or permanent migrants. Findings suggest that larger and wealthier households are less likely to have migrant family members, while households living below the poverty line, as well as villages with the highest unemployment rate, are the most likely to have both temporary and permanent migrants. However, a rise in months spent out of agriculture has a significant negative effect on crop income and asset accumulation, but only for permanent migration. By contrast, the influx of remitted income from migrants has led to increased crop income and asset values in the form of land and livestock holdings. Finally, this manuscript provides more comprehensive evidence by showing the net-returns of migration in terms of initial lost-labor effects and the positive developmental impacts that it produces varied for households with different types of migration and production conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

School health and nutrition (SHN) programmes are recognized as a significant contributor to both health and education sector goals. The school system offers an ideal platform from which to deliver basic health interventions that target the most common health conditions affecting school-age children (SAC) in low-income countries, leading to improved participation and learning outcomes. However, governments require evidence to cost, design, and implement these programmes. In Ethiopia, prevalent health conditions affecting SAC's education participation and learning outcomes include infection with soil-transmitted helminths (STHs), hunger, and malnutrition. In recognition of the multiple issues affecting the health and education of SAC, the government has taken a proactive approach, coordinating an integrated SHN programme designed to be implemented in partnership and monitored and financed through a single, integrated mechanism. The programme, known as the Enhanced School Health Initiative (ESHI), integrates three complimentary health interventions: deworming; school feeding; and provision of a water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) package in schools, which in delivery aim to maximize the benefits of each of the individual components. Operational research surrounding the ESHI programme includes both qualitative and quantitative analyses. Here, we present an overview of the ESHI programme and its genesis. We also introduce three additional supporting papers that provide in-depth analyses of key findings, including the baseline situational analysis, the costs, and community perceptions of the programme. The findings from ESHI provide initial evidence to develop an understanding of the related costs and synergies of integrating multiple health interventions onto a single platform. The work has translated into strengthened institutional capacity and improved cross-sectoral coordination. The government is now committed to supporting 25 million school children in Ethiopia through SHN. The ESHI model serves as a reference point for other countries looking to scale up targeted SHN interventions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reducing child undernutrition is a key social policy objective of the Ethiopian government. Despite substantial reduction over the last decade and a half, child undernutrition is still high; with 48 percent of children either stunted, underweight or wasted, undernutrition remains an important child health challenge. The existing literature highlights that targeting of efforts to reduce undernutrition in Ethiopia is inefficient, in part due to lack of data and updated information. This paper remedies some of this shortfall by estimating levels of stunting and underweight in each woreda for 2014. The estimates are small area estimations based on the 2014 Demographic and Health Survey and the latest population census. It is shown that small area estimations are powerful predictors of undernutrition, even compared to household characteristics, such as wealth and education, and hence a valuable targeting metric. The results show large variations in share of children undernourished within each region, more than between regions. The results also show that the locations with larger challenges depend on the chosen undernutrition statistic, as the share, number and concentration of undernourished children point to vastly different locations. There is also limited correlation between share of children underweight and stunted across woredas, indicating that different locations face different challenges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the effects of maternal autonomy on child schooling outcomes in Ethiopia using a nationally representative Ethiopian Demographic and Health survey for 2011. The empirical strategy uses a Hurdle Negative Binomial Regression model to estimate years of schooling. An ordered probit model is also estimated to examine age grade distortion using a trichotomous dependent variable that captures three states of child schooling. The large sample size and the range of questions available in this dataset allow us to explore the influence of individual and household level social, economic and cultural factors on child schooling. The analysis finds statistically significant effects of maternal autonomy variables on child schooling in Ethiopia. The roles of maternal autonomy and other household-level factors on child schooling are important issues in Ethiopia, where health and education outcomes are poor for large segments of the population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Agricultural technologies developed by national and international research institutions were not benefiting the rural population of Ethiopia to the extent desired. As a response, integrated agricultural extension approaches are proposed as a key strategy to transform the smallholder farming sector. Improving Productivity and Market Success (IPMS) of Ethiopian Farmers project is one of the development projects initiated by integrating productivity enhancement technological schemes with market development model. This paper explores the impact of the project intervention in the smallholder farmers’ wellbeing. Methods: To test the research hypothesis of whether the project brought a significant change in the input use, marketed surplus, efficiency and income of farm households, we use a cross-section data from 200 smallholder farmers in Northwest Ethiopia, collected through multi-stage sampling procedure. To control for self-selection from observable characteristics of the farm households, we employ Propensity Score Matching (PSM). We finally use Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) techniques to estimate technical efficiency of farm households. Results: The outcome of the research is in line with the premises that the participation of the household in the IPMS project improves purchased input use, marketed surplus, efficiency of farms and the overall gain from farming. The participant households on average employ more purchased agricultural inputs and gain higher gross margin from the production activities as compared to the non-participant households. The non-participant households on average supply less output (measured both in monetary terms and proportion of total produce) to the market as compared to their participant counterparts. Except for the technical efficiency of production in potato, project participant households are better-off in production efficiency compared with the non-participant counterparts. Conclusion: We verified the idea that Improving Productivity and Market Success (IPMS) of Ethiopian farmers’ project has contributed for the input and out market integration and/or market oriented agricultural production. Overall, we argue that these can be seen as an experimental model with a promising potential to improve the livelihood of the poor. Furthermore, we suggest that it is worthwhile to employ integrated agricultural extension programs with further targeting in the developing world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Ethiopia achieved a rapid expansion of TB microscopic centers for acid fast bacilli (AFB). However, external quality assurance (EQA) services were, until recently, limited to few regional and sub-regional laboratories. In this paper, we describe the decentralization experience and the result of EQA using random blinded rechecking. Materials and Methods: The routine EQA quarterly report was compiled and analyzed. A positive result by the microscopic center while the EQA center reported negative result is categorized as false positive (FP). A negative result by the microscopic center while the EQA center reported positive is considered false negative (FN). The reading of EQA centers was considered a gold standard to compute the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive (PPV) and negative predictive values (NPV) of the readings of microscopic centers. Results: We decentralized sputum smear AFB EQA from 4 Regional Laboratories (RRLs) to 82 EQA centers and enrolled 956 health facilities in EQA schemes. Enrollment of HFs in EQA was gradual because it required training and mentoring laboratory professionals, institutionalizing internal QA measures, equipping all HFs to perform diagnosis, and establishing more EQA centers. From 2012 to 2014 (Phase I), the FP rate declined from 0.6% to 0.2% and FN fell from as high as 7.6% to 1.6% in supported health facilities (HFs). In HFs that joined in Phase II, FN rates ranged from 5.6 to 7.3%. The proportion of HFs without errors has increased from 77.9% to 90.5% in Phase I HFs and from 82.9% to 86.9% in Phase II HFs. Overall sensitivity and specificity were 95.0% and 99.7%, respectively. PPV and NPV were 93.3% and 99.7%, respectively. Conclusion: Decentralizing blinded rechecking of sputum smear microscopy is feasible in low-income settings. While a comprehensive laboratory improvement strategy enhanced the quality of microscopy, laboratory professionals’ capacity in slide reading and smear quality requires continued support. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Visceral leishmaniasis (also known as kala-azar) is classified as one of the most neglected tropical diseases. It is becoming a growing health problem in Ethiopia, with endemic areas that are continually spreading. The annual burden of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in Ethiopia is estimated to be between 4,500 and 5,000 cases, and the population at risk is more than 3.2 million. There has been a change in the epidemiology of VL in Ethiopia. Over the last decades, almost all cases and outbreaks of VL were reported from arid and semi-arid parts of the country; however, recent reports indicated the introduction of this disease into the highlands. Migration of labourers to and from endemic areas, climatic and environmental changes, and impaired immunity due to HIV/AIDS and malnutrition resulted in the change of VL epidemiology. HIV spurs the spread of VL by increasing the risk of progression from asymptomatic infection towards full VL. Conversely, VL accelerates the onset of AIDS. In Ethiopia, VL epidemiology remains complex because of the diversity of risk factors involved, and its control is becoming an increasing challenge. This paper reviews the changes in epidemiology of VL in Ethiopia and discusses some of the possible explanations for these changes. The prospects for novel approaches to VL control are discussed, as are the current and future challenges facing Ethiopia's public health development program. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]