Search

Abstract: Soil is one of the most important and most complex natural resources, but current developments (urbanisation, erosion and climate change) increasingly threaten this valuable resource in Europe and worldwide. The main objective of this paper is to introduce how changes in soil quality were modelled in the SENSOR project through two indicators: soil carbon content and soil water erosion. Indicators were calculated using state variables and model variables that were mainly derived from the CLUE model which predicts land use change in response to policy scenarios. In the case of erosion, accuracy of the calculations was evaluated by comparing GIS data with the results of the PESERA project. The PESERA and SENSOR models predicted comparable soil loss for the first year in the NUTS-X regions of Europe that were analysed. The higher resolution national soil-loss prediction USLE map largely overestimated the amount of soil loss compared to the PESERA and the SENSOR models in the NUTS-X regions of Hungary. This discrepancy may result from technical or methodological differences such as the spatial reference framework (NUTS-X regions), spatial resolution or levels of data aggregation. The soil organic carbon loss predictions for the NUTS-X regions of Europe are displayed on maps and background data are given in tables. The greatest decreases in soil carbon content may be expected in some regions of Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, south-eastern UK and eastern Germany. The greatest increases in soil carbon content may be expected in central and eastern parts of the UK, in Ireland, in northern and central Sweden and Estonia, in Greece, in central and southern Italy, in the island of Sardinia and in some regions of Spain. As erosion strongly reduces soil productivity these predictions have not only environmental but also socio-economic implications. The results presented in this paper could be used at EU level to locate regions where negative changes in soil quality can be expected. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

In coastal dunes, landscape changes are a rule, rather than an exception. This paper gives an overview of changes in landscape and vegetation with a focus on the past century. The history of dunes is characterised by phases of sand drift, alternated with geomorphological stability. The historical development of dune woodland during these stable phases has been documented for sites all over Europe. Vegetation reconstructions of historical open dune habitats however is very difficult due to limited preservation of fossil remains. People have drastically altered coastal dune landscapes through centuries of exploitation and more recently development of the coast. Historical land use has generally pushed vegetation back into a semi-natural state. During roughly the past century a tendency of increasing fixation and succession is observed on coastal dunes throughout northwest Europe. Six causes of change are discussed. 1) Changes in land use, mainly abandonment of agricultural practices, have led to the development of late successional stages such as scrub and woodland. 2) Crashing rabbit populations due to myxomatosis in the 1950s caused vigorous grass growth and probably stimulated scrub development. 3) A general tendency of landscape fixation is observed due to both natural and anthropogenic factors. 4) Eutrophication, mainly due to atmospheric nitrogen deposition is clearly linked to grass encroachment on acidic but also on some calcareous dunes. 5) The impact of climate change on vegetation is still unclear but probably lengthening of growing season and maybe enhanced CO concentrations have led to an acceleration of succession. 6) A general anthropogenisation of the landscape occurs with rapid spread of non-native species as an important consequence. The reconstruction of a natural reference landscape is considered largely unattainable because of irreversible changes and the long tradition of human impact, in many cases since the development of the dunes. Two contradictory elements need reconciliation. First, the general acceleration of succession and scrub and woodland development in particular is partly caused by a decreased anthropogenic interference in the landscape and deserves more appreciation. Second, most biodiversity values are largely linked to open, early succession dune habitats and are threatened by the same tendency. Apart from internal nature management, in which grazing plays an important part, re-mobilisation of stable, senescent dunes is an important challenge for dune management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lichens are thought to be sensitive indicators of global warming, as the spread of several thermophilous epiphytes in north-western Central Europe has been attributed to late 20th century warming. In the present paper, the potential contribution of late 20th century warming to the decline of arctic-alpine and boreal-montane lichen species is analyzed. Relevant ecological groups of lichens include terricolous heathland species, saxicolous species of exposed rock outcrops and boulder fields as well as epiphytes of mountain forests. These three groups of lichens experienced significant declines before the onset of late 20th century warming in the 1970s. These declines can be attributed to the abandonment of traditional land use systems in the case of the heathland lichens, increased recreational use of the exposed summits usually inhabited by cold-tolerant saxicolous lichens, and to high atmospheric SO2 levels in the mid-20th century, but are probably not directly connected to global warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impacts of agricultural land use are far-reaching and extend to areas outside production. This paper provides an overview of the ecological status of agricultural systems across the European Union in the light of recent policy changes. It builds on the previous review of 2001 devoted to the impacts of agricultural intensification in Western Europe. The focus countries are the UK, The Netherlands, Boreal and Baltic countries, Portugal, Hungary and Romania, representing a geographical spread across Europe, but additional reference is made to other countries. Despite many adjustments to agricultural policy, intensification of production in some regions and concurrent abandonment in others remain the major threat to the ecology of agro-ecosystems impairing the state of soil, water and air and reducing biological diversity in agricultural landscapes. The impacts also extend to surrounding terrestrial and aquatic systems through water and aerial contamination and development of agricultural infrastructures (e.g. dams and irrigation channels). Improvements are also documented regionally, such as successful support of farmland species, and improved condition of watercourses and landscapes. This was attributed to agricultural policy targeted at the environment, improved environmental legislation, and new market opportunities. Research into ecosystem services associated with agriculture may provide further pressure to develop policy that is targeted at their continuous provisioning, fostering motivation of land managers to continue to protect and enhance them. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper presents a range of future, spatially explicit, land use change scenarios for the EU15, Norway and Switzerland based on an interpretation of the global storylines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that are presented in the special report on emissions scenarios (SRES). The methodology is based on a qualitative interpretation of the SRES storylines for the European region, an estimation of the aggregate totals of land use change using various land use change models and the allocation of these aggregate quantities in space using spatially explicit rules. The spatial patterns are further downscaled from a resolution of 10min to 250m using statistical downscaling procedures. The scenarios include the major land use/land cover classes urban, cropland, grassland and forest land as well as introducing new land use classes such as bioenergy crops. The scenario changes are most striking for the agricultural land uses, with large area declines resulting from assumptions about future crop yield development with respect to changes in the demand for agricultural commodities. Abandoned agricultural land is a consequence of these assumptions. Increases in urban areas (arising from population and economic change) are similar for each scenario, but the spatial patterns are very different. This reflects alternative assumptions about urban development processes. Forest land areas increase in all scenarios, although such changes will occur slowly and largely reflect assumed policy objectives. The scenarios also consider changes in protected areas (for conservation or recreation goals) and how these might provide a break on future land use change. The approach to estimate new protected areas is based in part on the use of models of species distribution and richness. All scenarios assume some increases in the area of bioenergy crops with some scenarios assuming a major development of this new land use. Several technical and conceptual difficulties in developing future land use change scenarios are discussed. These include the problems of the subjective nature of qualitative interpretations, the land use change models used in scenario development, the problem of validating future change scenarios, the quality of the observed baseline, and statistical downscaling techniques. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

SummaryUnder the Kyoto Protocol, the European Union is committed to a reduction in CO2 emissions to 92% of baseline (1990) levels during the first commitment period (2008–2012). The Kyoto Protocol allows carbon emissions to be offset by demonstrable removal of carbon from the atmosphere. Thus, land-use/land-management change and forestry activities that are shown to reduce atmospheric CO2 levels can be included in the Kyoto targets. These activities include afforestation, reforestation and deforestation (article 3.3 of the Kyoto Protocol) and the improved management of agricultural soils (article 3.4). In this paper, we estimate the carbon mitigation potential of various agricultural land-management strategies and examine the consequences of European policy options on carbon mitigation potential, by examining combinations of changes in agricultural land-use/land-management. We show that no single land-management change in isolation can mitigate all of the carbon needed to meet Europe's climate change commitments, but integrated combinations of land-management strategies show considerable potential for carbon mitigation. Three of the combined scenarios, one of which is an optimal realistic scenario, are by themselves able to meet Europe's emission limitation or reduction commitments. Through combined land-management scenarios, we show that the most important resource for carbon mitigation in agriculture is the surplus arable land. We conclude that in order to fully exploit the potential of arable land for carbon mitigation, policies will need to be implemented to allow surplus arable land to be put into alternative long-term land-use. Of all options examined, bioenergy crops show the greatest potential for carbon mitigation. Bioenergy crop production also shows an indefinite mitigation potential compared to other options where the mitigation potential is finite. We suggest that in order to exploit fully the bioenergy option, the... [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]