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It is widely acknowledged that the climate is warming globally and within the UK. In this paper, studies which assess the direct impact of current increased temperatures and heat-waves on health and those which project future health impacts of heat under different climate change scenarios in the UK are reviewed.This review finds that all UK studies demonstrate an increase in heat-related mortality occurring at temperatures above threshold values, with respiratory deaths being more sensitive to heat than deaths from cardiovascular disease (although the burden from cardiovascular deaths is greater in absolute terms). The relationship between heat and other health outcomes such as hospital admissions, myocardial infarctions and birth outcomes is less consistent. We highlight the main populations who are vulnerable to heat. Within the UK, these are older populations, those with certain co-morbidities and those living in Greater London, the South East and Eastern regions.In all assessments of heat-related impacts using different climate change scenarios, deaths are expected to increase due to hotter temperatures, with some studies demonstrating that an increase in the elderly population will also amplify burdens. However, key gaps in knowledge are found in relation to how urbanisation and population adaptation to heat will affect health impacts, and in relation to current and future strategies for effective, sustainable and equitable adaptation to heat. These and other key gaps in knowledge, both in terms of research needs and knowledge required to make sound public- health policy, are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is expected to modify rainfall, temperature and catchment hydrological responses across the world, and adapting to these water-related changes is a pressing challenge. This paper reviews the impact of anthropogenic climate change on water in the UK and looks at projections of future change. The natural variability of the UK climate makes change hard to detect; only historical increases in air temperature can be attributed to anthropogenic climate forcing, but over the last 50 years more winter rainfall has been falling in intense events. Future changes in rainfall and evapotranspiration could lead to changed flow regimes and impacts on water quality, aquatic ecosystems and water availability. Summer flows may decrease on average, but floods may become larger and more frequent. River and lake water quality may decline as a result of higher water temperatures, lower river flows and increased algal blooms in summer, and because of higher flows in the winter. In communicating this important work, researchers should pay particular attention to explaining confidence and uncertainty clearly. Much of the relevant research is either global or highly localized: decision-makers would benefit from more studies that address water and climate change at a spatial and temporal scale appropriate for the decisions they make. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

British summers are known to have become warmer and drier in recent decades, but has there also been a change in the timing of this season’s beginning, as has occurred for spring? This paper addresses this question by examining records of the first blooming date of early summer flowering plants (phenology) and the timing of first occurrences of warm ‘summer’ temperatures, both events that we associate with the onset of summer. This has revealed that the onset of summer in England has been advancing since the mid 1950s. The occurrence of ‘summer’ temperatures has advanced more than early summer flowering, by eleven and three days respectively in the 1990s compared to the period 1954–1963. This may have encouraged drought or heat wave conditions by prolonging the period of warm temperatures and lower rainfall in which these events occur. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper compares precipitation, maximum and minimum air temperature and solar radiation estimates from the Hadley Centre's HadRM3 regional climate model (RCM), (50x50 km grid cells), with observed data from 15 meteorological station in the UK, for the period 1960-90. The aim was to investigate how well the HadRM3 is able to represent weather characteristics for a historical period (hindcast) for which validation data exist. The rationale was to determine if the HadRM3 data contain systematic errors and to investigate how suitable the data are for use in climate change impact studies at particular locations. Comparing modelled and observed data helps assess and quantify the uncertainty introduced to climate impact studies. The results show that the model performs very well for some locations and weather variable combinations, but poorly for others. Maximum temperature estimations are generally good, but minimum temperature is overestimated and extreme cold events are not represented well. For precipitation, the model produces too many small events leading to a serious under estimation of the number of dry days (zero precipitation), whilst also over- or underestimating the mean annual total. Estimates represent well the temporal distribution of precipitation events. The model systematically over-estimates solar radiation, but does produce good quality estimates at some locations. It is concluded that the HadRM3 data are unsuitable for detailed (i.e. daily time step simulation model based) site-specific impacts studies in their current form. However, the close similarity between modelled and observed data for the historical case raises the potential for using simple adjustment methods and applying these to future projection data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]