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Context: Documenting trends in the health impacts of ambient temperature is key to supporting adaptation strategies to climate change. This paper explores changes in the temperature-related mortality in 18 French urban centers between 1970 and 2015. Method: A multicentric time-series design with time-varying distributed lag nonlinear models was adopted to model the shape of the relationship and assess temporal changes in risks and impacts. Results: The general shape of the temperature-mortality relationship did not change over time, except for an increasing risk at very low percentiles and a decreasing risk at very high percentiles. The relative risk at the 99.9th percentile compared to the 50th percentile of the 1970–2015 temperature distribution decreased from 2.33 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.95:2.79] in 1975 to 1.33 [95% CI: 1.14:1.55] in 2015. Between 1970 and 2015, 302,456 [95% CI: 292,723:311,392] deaths were attributable to non-optimal temperatures, corresponding to 5.5% [95% CI: 5.3:5.6] of total mortality. This burden decreased progressively, representing 7.2% [95% CI: 6.7:7.7] of total mortality in the 1970s to 3.4% [95% CI: 3.2:3.6] in the 2000s. However, the contribution of hot temperatures to this burden (higher than the 90th percentile) increased. Discussion: Despite the decreasing relative risk, the fraction of mortality attributable to extreme heat increased between 1970 and 2015, thus highlighting the need for proactive adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 2012, SCOR, one of the world's largest reinsurers, sued the French state, challenging a public–private natural disaster insurance scheme, called the "cat nat" regime. It campaigned in favour of a "real" natural disaster insurance market. The purpose of this paper is to grasp the logic of this litigation. It reveals growing tensions regarding the insurance of natural disasters, against the backdrop of climate change. To make sense of this, we will build on Christian Parenti's theory of the "environment making state". This approach aims at understanding the interaction between capitalism, states, and nature. The question we will pose is: what happens to "environment making" institutions in times of crisis? Crisis leads to the "politicisation" of "environment making": decisions concerning the management of natural hazards are increasingly taken by the executive branch. This "politicisation" may represent an important evolution in the relationship between capitalism, states, and nature in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Growing a second food, fodder or bioenergy crop during the fallow period commonly refers to sequential double cropping or relay cropping practices, as a function of sowing date (following or within the primary crop, respectively). Such practice may generate an additional income while supplying support and regulation services. As such, it could be referred as a form of ecologically intensive agriculture but also an opportunity offered by climate change. The decision-making process in the adoption of double cropping relies on many factors related to soil and climate conditions, but also on profit expectation and risk perception. The CASDAR project "3C2A: Three crops in two years" (2019–2023) strived to create references for sequential double cropping in the South-West of France, which encompasses the regions of Nouvelle-Aquitaine and Occitanie. The project focused mainly on grain crops and raised the interest of the use of oil-protein crops such as soybean (Glycine max (L.) Merrill) and sunflower (Helianthus annuus L.) for such practice. As a preliminary contribution of 3C2A project, this paper aims at illustrating the potential interest of soybean and sunflower as double crops in the South-West of France through a qualitative analysis of farmers' perceptions about the risks and opportunities of double-cropping completed by a 4-years on-farm evaluation of agronomic and economic performances of this practice (110 fields). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The sedimentary sequence of La Narce du Béage Basin is one of the few natural archives covering the last 18 ka cal. BP in the French Massif Central. This paper focuses on the palaeoecological reconstruction of environmental and climatic changes affecting this shallow periglacial lake from the Late-Glacial to the Early Holocene. After field surveys and geophysical mapping, two cores (cores A and D) were extracted and dated. Plant macrofossils, pollen, non-pollen palynomorphs (NPPs) and diatom assemblages were compared within the cores to study vegetation, temperature, pH, water level and ice cover changes through time. During the Oldest Dryas (18–14.75 ka cal. BP), climatic conditions were the coldest with a short ice-free season allowing the development of periphytic diatoms only (ecologically comparable to Arctic ones). A cold and dry steppe landscape – exposed to severe erosion – comprised an herbaceous and shrub flora (e.g. Artemisia , Chenopodiaceae, Helianthemum, Ephedra, Hippophaë, Juniperus). Animal presence is suggested by coprophilous fungi. Periphytic diatoms and allochtonous pollen (Cedrus) underline windy conditions, and the possible erosion of neo-formed soils. Then, during the Bølling-Allerød interstadial (14.75–12.7 ka cal. BP), the ice-free season increased and some trees/shrubs (Salix, Betula and Juniperus) established locally within open grasslands. During the Younger Dryas (12.7–11.7 ka cal. BP) cooler conditions favoured steppe taxa again (Helianthemum, Achillea, Artemisia , Caryophyllaceae, Ranunculaceae) and erosion increased. The ice cover on the lake prevailed even if the conditions were not as cold as during the Oldest Dryas. During the Preboreal (11.7–10 ka cal. BP) Isoëtes echinospora and I. lacustris developed in the eulittoral zone of the lake, which was surrounded by a swamp forest (with Betula nana and B. pubescens). Pinus sylvestris, Betula pendula, Corylus avellana and trees from the Quercetum mixtum rapidly established in the uplands. Occurrences of Gaeumannomyces and Xylomyces fungi – both phytopathogens on broadleaved trees – and decreasing herb values indirectly hint at a close forest canopy. At the beginning of the Boreal (10 ka cal. BP), aquatic and semi-aquatic taxa developed on open water due to longer ice-free seasons (diatoms, micro-algae, Alisma plantago-aquatica, Potamogeton, Typha). The final terrestrialization towards a mire occurred as a consequence of the Holocene warming and related to water chemistry changes (acidification, eutrophication). • During the last deglaciation, a very shallow lake established as demonstrated by palaeoecological data, such as epiphytic diatoms, living on rocks. • Late-Glacial steppe landscape with severe erosion, open grassland and possible mega-herbivore presence. Arctic-like conditions. • Development of shrubs or trees during the Bølling-Allerød interstadial and reduced ice-free season. • Dry and cold conditions persisted from the Younger Dryas to the Early Preboreal. Oligotrophic flora (Isoetids) established in the eulittoral zone. • During the post-glacial warming, the lake tended to acidify. Peat flora and organic matter accumulated and led to the terrestrialization of the lake. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides an overview of the papers published in this Special Issue « Coastal Evolution under Climate Change along the Tropical Overseas and Temperate Metropolitan France» of Journal of Coastal Research. This special issue reflects the large diversity of mainland and tropical French coast and highlights the complex, site- and timescale-specific, combination of factors driving coastal evolution. Many contributions reveal a strong climate control on storm wave activity and, in turn, coastal response. In some contributions, the inherited geology and anthropogenic factors clearly appear affect coastal change. This special issue emphasises the need to monitor the coast combining different means to improve our understanding and predicting capacities of the natural variability of coastal response in a changing climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

France is one of the countries that have made commendable progress towards accomplishing sustainable development goals but still struggles with combating environmental challenges. Decarbonizing the energy sector by deploying clean energy and reducing fossil fuels in the energy mix are essential steps. The study uses annual time series data from 1980 to 2021 and employs the ridge regression estimation technique to estimate a twice-differentiable transcendental production function, which approximates the second-order Taylor series to explore the potential for such decarbonization for France. The study finds that substitution possibilities exist between clean energy and fossil fuels, with substantial substitution possibilities coming from nuclear energy. Nuclear energy and renewables are found to be complements that can be deployed concurrently, but since nuclear energy already constitutes a significant proportion of clean energy for France, the study recommends increasing the proportion of renewable energy in the overall energy mix as the most plausible path to decarbonization. Other complementary sustainable energy policies are recommended in the body of the paper. • The substitution elasticities between clean energy and fossil fuels were estimated. • A second-order Taylor series trans-log production function was specified. • Substitutability is found between clean energy and fossil fuels. • Nuclear energy currently dominates France's clean energy mix. • Increasing renewables in the clean energy mix is recommended. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The climate impacts of deep enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) have been understudied in the academic literature. Using life-cycle analysis (LCA) conducted in accordance with ISO 14040 and ISO 14044 standards, this paper explores the climate change impacts of two deep EGS. The first study was in Reykjanes, Iceland, where a single well, IDDP-2/DEEPEGS, was drilled to a depth of 4.6 km for the purposes of additional electricity production from an existing power plant. The second study involved two wells with side-tracks (depth > 5000 m), drilled to serve a new heat and power co-generation plant located on an old oil field site in Vendenheim, France. Climate change impacts for the sites were estimated in the range 1.6–17.4 gCO2e/kWh and 6.9–13.9 gCO2e/kWh for Reykjanes and Vendenheim, respectively. Although the EGS projects are very different, both outcomes are low when compared to non-renewable alternatives and akin to best-in-class renewable alternatives. The main impact at the Reykjanes demonstration site were the greenhouse gas emissions released from the borehole, an effect that could be avoided by carbon capture and storage/mineralisation/utilisation. In the case of Vendenheim, further reductions in emissions could be achieved via more extensive adoption of circular economy principles in design and procurement. • First two life-cycle assessments of deep enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). • Climate change impacts for Reykjanes estimated in the range 1.6–17.4 gCO2e/kWh. • Climate change impacts for Vendenheim estimated in the range 6.9–13.9 gCO2e/kWh. • Emissions reductions at Reykjanes achievable through carbon capture and storage. • Circular economy design/procurement principles could reduce emissions at Vendenheim. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We investigate the environmental benefits of ridesharing and rebound effects. • We use an integrated transport land-use model calibrated to the Paris region. • By reducing the cost of car and congestion, ridesharing yields rebound effects.... • ...that mitigate by about 2/3 initial decreases in CO 2 emissions, mostly due to modal shift. • Road pricing and reducing road capacity can efficiently reduce the rebound effect. This paper investigates how and to what extent changes in user behavior may mitigate the environmental benefits of urban ridesharing, a phenomenon commonly referred to as "rebound effect". Ridesharing reduces both the individual cost of car travel (through cost splitting) and road travel times (by decreasing congestion). This may trigger a number of behavioral changes among transportation users, including: making less detours to avoid congestion (route choice effect), switching from public transit and active modes to the car (modal shift effect), travelling longer distances (distance effect), and relocating further from the urban center (relocation effect). Taking Paris region as a case study, this research applies an integrated transportation/land-use model to evaluate several ridesharing scenarios and quantify the four rebound effects. The overall rebound effect is found to be substantial, cancelling out from 68 to 77% of CO 2 emission reductions and from 52 to 73% of aggregated social benefits (including congestion, air quality, CO 2 emissions, noise) expected from ridesharing. This is primarily the result of the modal shift effect, supplemented as ridesharing develops by the distance effect. Although the simplified representation of ridesharing in the baseline model calls for caution regarding these estimates, a sensitivity analysis corroborates the main findings and the prevalence of substantial rebound effects. The paper also investigates to what extent three complementary policies - improving public transit, reducing road capacity or increasing the cost of car travel – might limit the overall rebound effect and thereby maximize the benefits of urban ridesharing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Overheating regulations and calculation methods in 26 European countries were compared. • Most of the existing calculation methods are outdated and do not fit climate-proof buildings. • France requires a mixed-mode operation of naturally ventilated households. • The UK developed a heatwave-based calculation approach. • Comfort-based, multi-zonal, and time-integrated calculation approaches are needed. With the ongoing significance of overheating calculations in the residential building sector, building codes such as the European Energy Performance of Building Directive (EPBD) are essential for harmonizing the indicators and performance thresholds. This paper investigates Europe's overheating calculation methods, indicators, and thresholds and evaluates their ability to address climate change and heat events. e study aims to identify the suitability of existing overheating calculation methods and propose recommendations for the EPBD. The study results provide a cross-sectional overview of twenty-six European countries. The most influential overheating calculation criteria are listed the best approaches are ranked. The paper provides a thorough comparative assessment and recommendations to align current calculations with climate-sensitive metrics. The results suggest a framework and key performance indicators that are comfort-based, multi-zonal, and time-integrated to calculate overheating and modify the EU's next building energy efficiency regulations. The results can help policymakers and building professionals to develop the next overheating calculation framework and approach for the future development of climate-proof and resilient residential buildings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For the last 25 years, CO-PDD (Cézeaux-Aulnat-Opme-puy de Dôme) has evolved to become a full instrumented platform for atmospheric research. It has received credentials as a national observing platform in France and is internationally recognized as a global station in the GAW (Global Atmosphere Watch) network. It is a reference site of European and national research infrastructures ACTRIS (Aerosol Cloud and Trace gases Research Infrastructure) and ICOS (Integrated Carbon Observing System). The site located on top of the puy de Dôme mountain (1465 m a.s.l.) is completed by additional sites located at lower altitudes and adding the vertical dimension to the atmospheric observations: Opme (660 m a.s.l.), Cézeaux (410 m), and Aulnat (330 m). The integration of different sites offers a unique combination of in situ and remote sensing measurements capturing and documenting the variability of particulate and gaseous atmospheric composition, but also the optical, biochemical, and physical properties of aerosol particles, clouds, and precipitations. Given its location far away from any major emission sources, its altitude, and the mountain orography, the puy de Dôme station is ideally located to sample different air masses in the boundary layer or in the free troposphere depending on time of day and seasons. It is also an ideal place to study cloud properties with frequent presence of clouds at the top in fall and winter. As a result of the natural conditions prevailing at the site and of the very exhaustive instrumental deployment, scientific studies at the puy de Dôme strongly contribute to improving knowledge in atmospheric sciences, including the characterization of trends and variability, the understanding of complex and interconnected processes (microphysical, chemical, biological, chemical and dynamical), and the provision of reference information for climate/chemistry models. In this context, CO-PDD is a pilot site to conduct instrumental development inside its wind tunnel for testing liquid and ice cloud probes in natural conditions, or in situ systems to collect aerosol and cloud. This paper reviews 25 years (1995–2020) of atmospheric observation at the station and related scientific research contributing to atmospheric and climate science. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Groundwater represents the most important freshwater resource. In this paper, we applied a spatial approach based on the Geographical Information Systems (GIS) technology to assess the groundwater vulnerability in the Grand Est region from northeastern France. Aquifers media (AM), potential infiltration map (PIM), pollution load index (PLI), and effective precipitation (EP) were the main parameters used in the calculation of groundwater vulnerability. This study proposes a spatial-temporal analysis including past (1961–1990), near future (2011–2040), and more distant future (2041–2070), thereafter called the 1990s, the 2020s, and the 2050s. To validate the results, groundwater monitoring stations data of Nitrate (NO 3 −), dated from 2005 to 2012, was used as reference datasets. The validation of the groundwater vulnerability map was based on pixel pair comparison (PPC) method and it indicates 42.85% perfect confidence and 50% good confidence for the groundwater vulnerability map in 2020s period. The high groundwater vulnerability was found in the Rhine, Marne, and Aube Valleys, while the low and very low vulnerability was depicted in the Vosges, Ardennes Mountains, and some territories form the central region for all three periods. Application of the proposed framework indicates increases of vulnerability up to 60% between 1990s and 2020s and up to 80% between 1990s and 2050s scenarios. The output maps and findings could be useful for the future environmental plans of the region and, in addition, could help mitigate the problems related to water resources, considering the climate expectations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract This paper explores the relationship between past climate and prehistoric Mediterranean agriculture by adapting a process-based dynamic vegetation model to estimate potential agricultural productivity under climate scenarios that characterize the extremes of Mediterranean climate in the Holocene. We adapt LPJmL (the Lund-Potsdam-Jena-managed-land model [Bondeau et al., 2007]), a process-based dynamic vegetation model, to the modeling of potential agricultural productivity in the past. Calibrating this model for past crops and agricultural practices and using a downscaling approach to produce high spatiotemporal resolution paleoclimate data, we produce quantitative estimates of potential yields under past climatic conditions derived from four Holocene climatic extremes (warm/wet, warm/dry, cold/wet, and cold/dry) under two different assumptions (approximate high and low limits) about the intensity of agricultural practice. We here discuss this process with reference to a case study in Provence, examining the methodology and data requirements for modeling past agriculture using LPJmL and considering the implications of the range of variability in potential agricultural productivity under distinct climate conditions. We focus particularly on comparing the range of variability induced by climatic shifts with that achievable through changes in agricultural practices as a means of approaching questions of past vulnerability and resilience. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Organizational sustainability is a multi-facet paradigm widely used to address perennial business challenges such as climate change, industrial waste, the economies of scale and social well-being, etc. In the last three decades, extensive research has been performed on ecological or economic sustainability, ignoring the third pillar of sustainability. Given the importance of humans and society-a center-stage of inclusive development-this paper aims to conduct a bibliometric analysis to examine the growth of organizational social sustainability (OSS) from 2000 to 2021 during MDG & SDG periods. A total of 1566 publications are analyzed using Scopus and the Web of Science (WoS) database. Citation networks, bibliographic coupling, and thematic mapping have explored influential work, intellectual structure, and research gaps. The study findings demonstrated that most publications are during the SDG period, with Sustainability as the most productive journal and the USA as the most contributing country. The top 10 active institutions are from Australia, France, and Spain. The top contributing authors are from France, but the USA is at the top in citations. Contributions are lacking from large portions of Africa. Keyword analysis showed that "social sustainability," "sustainable development," "environmental sustainability," "sustainable supply change management," "circular economy," and "social life cycle assessment" are the main topics. Keyword analysis and thematic mapping show that despite increased publications in the field of organizational social sustainability, OSS research is still far from focusing on the stakeholders' benefits, satisfaction, and subjective well-being. Moreover, quantitative assessment of OSS based on sustainability standards such as Global Reporting Initiatives (GRI) and Value Reporting Foundation (VRF) standards was found scant in the given field. The present research concluded with scope and opportunity for future research in the area of OSS. • Bibliometric analysis to examine organizational social sustainability during MDG & SDG periods. • Scopus & WoS data used in R Studio & Vosviewer. • Citation networks, bibliographic coupling, and thematic mapping have explored influential work, intellectual structure. • Global Reporting Initiatives and Value Reporting Foundation standards was found scant in the given field. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 2015 Paris Agreement represents a historic deal in the form of a strong international response to address climate change. This outcome came as a surprise for some, as several controversial issues had been postponed from previous conferences, and were expected to complicate the talks in Paris. One related to the Warsaw International Mechanism on Loss and Damage (L&D), and potential legal remedies for L&D in the form of compensation payments. This issue had been particularly contentious with some developing countries advocating ideas for climate damage liability, which developed countries were unwilling to include in an agreement. Although the negotiations on L&D secured many positive outcomes, Decision 1/CP.21 adopting the Paris Agreement notes that there is no possibility of claiming liability and financial compensation for developing countries. This article, however, argues that, rather than triggering endless compensation claims disputes, a liability mechanism could actually serve as a commitment and reciprocity device, ultimately increasing global policy ambition. In this regard, this article reports the results of two experiments testing the effects of liability rules on the climate policy investment decisions of two players that differ in wealth and vulnerability. Results show that liability rules imposing a responsibility for precaution on both parties increase cooperation significantly, consequentially minimizing risk of L&D occurrence in the first place. Liability rules could thus not only help to address future losses, but also to drive global mitigation and adaptation ambition. POLICY RELEVANCE The research results presented in this paper suggest that policymakers would be well advised to further intensify negotiations on a climate-related compensation mechanism beyond that already committed to in the Paris Agreement. Our findings show that a compensation mechanism that implements a rather simple negligence rule makes climate cooperation more attractive and rewarding, potentially leading rich and poor nations to boost their investments in mitigation and adaptation for climate protection. Thus, far from opening up a Pandora’s box of endless compensation claims towards industrialized countries, a liability mechanism could make global climate cooperation more effective, and in the longer run also less costly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Interaction between mitigation and adaptation is a key question for the design of climate policies. In this paper, we study how land use adaptation to climate change impacts land use competition in the agriculture, forest and other land use (AFOLU) sector and how a mitigation policy in agriculture might affect this competition. We use for this purpose two sector-specific bio-economic models of agriculture and forest combined with an econometric land use shares model to simulate the impacts of two climate change scenarios (A2 and B1, 2100 horizon), and a greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture policy consisting of a tax of between 0 and 200 €/tCO 2 equivalent. Our results show that both climate change scenarios lead to an increase in the area devoted to agriculture at the expense of forest which could have a negative impact on reducing greenhouse gas emissions responsible for climate change. The mitigation policy would curtail agricultural expansion, and thus could counteract the effects of land use adaptation to climate change. In other words, accounting for land use competition results in a reduction of the abatement costs of the mitigation policy in the agricultural sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While the importance of Nature-Based Solutions for climate change adaptation (NBaS) is being increasingly acknowledged, very few studies investigate the status of these solutions in higher education syllabi. In an effort to bridge this gap, this study assessed the position of the NBaS notion in French Master's programs. Based on a survey questionnaire, several interviews and a text mining analysis of the Master's contents, this paper identified, localised and analysed the French Masters that presented links with NBaS related concepts. This analysis revealed that the notion of NBaS is far from being mastered. This might be caused by a conceptual misunderstanding of definitions. While text mining revealed that the building blocks of the NBaS framework are present, much still needs to be done for connecting them together. A combined analysis of the findings derived from this study led to recommendations to better introduce NBaS in Masters programs in the future. • The term of Nature-Based (adaptation) Solution is far for being well mastered. • Based on the existing definition, the concept should also be better explained. • Few courses are actually dedicated to climate change and how to adapt to it. • The complexity of the environments across scales has to be taken into account. • NBaS require a transition from silo approaches to multidisciplinary frameworks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How soil moisture affects precipitation is an important question-with far reaching consequences, from weather prediction to centennial climate change-, albeit a poorly understood one. In this paper, an analysis of soil moisture-precipitation interactions over France based on observations is presented. A first objective of this paper is to investigate how large scale circulation modulates soil moisture-precipitation interactions, thanks to a weather regime approach. A second objective is to study the influence of soil moisture not only on precipitation but also on the difference between precipitation and evapotranspiration. Indeed, to have a total positive soil moisture-precipitation feedback, the potential decrease in precipitation associated with drier soils should be larger than the decrease in evapotranspiration that drier soils may also cause. A potential limited impact of soil moisture on precipitation is found for some weather regimes, but its sign depends on large scale circulation. Indeed, antecedent dry soil conditions tend to lead to smaller precipitation for the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) regime but to larger precipitation for the Atlantic Low regime. This differential response of precipitation to soil moisture anomalies depending on large scale circulation is traced back to different responses of atmospheric stability. For all circulation regimes, dry soils tend to increase the lifted condensation level, which is unfavorable to precipitation. But for the negative phase of the NAO, low soil moisture tends to lead to an increase of atmospheric stability while it tends to lead to a decrease of stability for Atlantic Low. Even if the impact of soil moisture anomalies varies depending on large scale circulation (it is larger for Atlantic low and the positive phase of the NAO), dry soils always lead to a decrease in evapotranspiration. As the absolute effect of antecedent soil moisture on evapotranspiration is always much larger than its effects on precipitation, for all circulation regimes dry soil anomalies subsequently lead to positive precipitation minus evapotranspiration anomalies i.e. the total soil moisture feedback is found to be negative. This negative feedback is stronger for the Atlantic Low and the positive phase of the NAO regimes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Future development and renewal of transport infrastructures have to take into account how the effects of climate change will affect these complex sociotechnical systems. This article aims at understanding how to raise this issue to ensure an efficient and systemic uptake of climate change by infrastructure managers. It reports the results of an in-depth case study conducted on the French railway company. This study identifies several adaptation dynamics: one is top-down and stems from climate change impacts; others are more bottom-up and focused on vulnerabilities. However, both types of approaches have, so far, yielded limited results. Building on the existing literature, this paper reveals critical bottlenecks to overcome in order to get the organization ready to adapt. It suggests key components of an enabling framework for a more proactive preparation to climate change and mainstreaming climate adaptation into major organisational decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given that in-depth place-specific studies are needed for a better understanding of the role of cities in coping with climate change and implementing the energy transition, this paper, based on the case of Lyon (France), brings empirical evidence of how climate and energy are being governed at a city level. A comprehensive understanding of this is achieved with emphasis put on the modes of governing enacted by the local authority, as well as the positioning of the city at broader scales. The framing and localising processes involved in the policy-making process are at the core of this analysis, with a particular focus on two interrelated questions: how are climate and energy making their way as new urban issues that call for specific responses, and how do they reinforce – and are they also reinforced by – metropolitan-wide governance in a context of institutional change? [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 2007, the French government organized a series of meetings dealing with environment and sustainable development problematics under the title ⪡ Grenelle de l'Environnement ⪢. The conclusions of these meetings were introduced in a new law published in August 2009 (Law N° 2009-967) known as "Grenelle 1". Article 1 requires that the State designs a so-called Sustainable Development National Strategy (SDNS) structured around 9 targets. Target 1 consists in fighting against climate change. The SDNS is used as a basis for the involvement of public and private agencies in this perspective. The struggle against climate change and implementation of sustainable development principles within the agency framework raises a number of practical questions: how are adaptive methods and tools to be developed to help the agency reach a new balance given the environmental, economic and social risks induced by these broad targets? Are there any standards of reference and if not can an innovative approach be developed to support decision-making in situations of uncertainty? How can a management dashboard be developed for a proportional allocation of resources adapted to the various stakeholders and decision levels within the agency? How does one compare actions that can have different impacts in different sub-systems and with different time frameworks? Following a brief historical review of the origin of the challenges of sustainable development and climate change in the introduction part of the paper, we discuss the methodological approach selected and the investigator's intervention program in the first part of the paper. In the second part, we address practical issues for an agency facing the challenges of sustainable development and climate change. To this end we relate the experience of designing a sustainable development framework within a public agency using an organizational approach and a multiple criteria decision aid methodology. Finally, we discuss the decision-makers' choices and the lessons learned by implementing an innovative approach which we set up to face these new challenges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Faced with increasing urbanization and uncertainties linked to climate change, the scientific community has integrated the concept of resilience into urban management practices. Once revolutionary, now a buzzword, resilience is a concept that is difficult to transform into an integrated tool that stakeholders accept and adopt. This paper offers a perspective on the different interpretations of resilience, its difficult implementation and the tools that seek to operationalize it. The underlying questions are how these tools are appropriated by urban managers and territorial decision-makers, and how the theoretical concept can be translated into resilient urban development. This research paper reviews the work on resilience and investigates its use and operationalization, comparing two different approaches – organizational (Canada) and holistic (France) – that aim to clarify and operationalize resilience. These theoretical approaches have been combined to create workshops for urban managers so they can move from theoretical results to practical applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, a stochastic model is used to simulate daily minimum temperature time series coming from observations and two CMIP5 climate models (IPSL-CM5A-MR and CNRM-CM5) in order to analyze the changes in cold wave number and proportions under future climate conditions. The stochastic model allows computing 100 temperature time series for each different source (observation or climate model), and for 22 locations in France, which enables inferring the statistical significance of the changes. Two future time periods, near (around 2010-2060) and far future (around 2050-2100), and two RCPs (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) are considered, while 3 different thresholds are used to identify cold waves: 0 °C and the 10th and 5th percentiles of observed wintertime (December-January-February) daily minimum temperature distribution. The results show that both models project a significantly lower number of cold waves in the future, all durations considered, but the changes mainly concern the proportion of the longest cold waves (10 days and more). The decreases are higher with IPSL-CM5A-MR than with CNRM-CM5. The main driver of this change is the decreasing frequency of the observation based thresholds in the future, which is higher for IPSL-CM5-MR model because the impact of a higher mean is enhanced by a decrease in the variance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• French people have limited knowledge about climate change but worry about it. • They prefer green investments or regulations to a tax and dividend. • Distributive effects and lack of alternatives prevent carbon tax acceptance. • Improving knowledge is predicted to increase ecological attitudes and concern. • Unlike in the US, partisanship does not interact with education to shape perceptions. This paper aims to assess the prospects for French climate policies after the Yellow Vests crisis halted the planned increase in the carbon tax. From a large representative survey, we elicit knowledge, perceptions and values over climate change, we examine opinions relative to carbon taxation, and we assess support for other climate policies. Specific attention is given to the link between perceptions of climate change and attitudes towards policies. The paper also studies in detail the determinants of attitudes in terms of political and socio-demographic variables. Among many results, we find limited knowledge but high concern for climate change. We also document a large rejection of the carbon tax but majority support for stricter norms and green investments, and reveal the rationales behind these preferences. Our study entails policy recommendations, such as an information campaign on climate change. Indeed, we find that climate awareness increases support for climate policies but no evidence for the formation of opinions through partisan cues as in the US, suggesting that better access to science could foster support for climate policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coastal flooding is among the most significant disasters that threaten littoral populations in today's world. Climate change and global warming increase this risk and require implementing efficient strategies to anticipate the hazard and reduce human and material damage. This paper describes a generic platform called LittoSIM-GEN (a coupling of agent-based and hydrodynamic models), which aims to involve stakeholders in a participatory simulation of land use management to minimize the risks of coastal submersion. An application to the southwest coast of France (Rochefort) demonstrates the features of this platform. We propose several recommendations to improve the generic conception and implementation of models dedicated to participatory simulation. • We describe LittoSIM-GEN, a generic model and platform for conducting workshops on flooding risk management. • We present an application of LittoSIM-GEN to the case study of Rochefort on the southwest coast of France. • We discuss the genericity problem in participatory simulation models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Predictions of future land use areas are an important issue as land use patterns significantly impact environmental conditions (biodiversity, water pollution, soil erosion, and climate change) as well as economic and social welfare. In order to improve the prediction accuracy of aggregated land use share models, we propose in this paper a methodological contribution by controlling for both unobserved individual heterogeneity and spatial autocorrelation. Our model is a land use shares model applied to aggregated data in France. Our dataset is a panel which covers both time series observations from 1992 to 2003 and cross-sectional observations by Département (equivalent to NUTS3 regions). We consider four land use classes: (1) agriculture, (2) forest, (3) urban and (4) other use. We investigate the relation between the areas in land in different alternative uses and economic and demographic factors influencing land use decisions. Based on the comparison of prediction accuracy of different model specifications, our findings are threefold: First, controlling for both unobserved individual heterogeneity and spatial autocorrelation outperforms any other specification in which spatial autocorrelation and/or individual heterogeneity are ignored. Second, accounting for cross-equation correlations does not seem to improve the prediction performances and finally, ignoring individual heterogeneity introduces substantial loss in prediction accuracy. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Le Cozannet, G., Ait-Kaci, H., Colas, S., De Lacaze, X., Lecacheux, S., Mirgon, C., Peinturier, C., Garcin, M., and Oliveros, C., 2013. Recent GIS based national assessments of climate change consequences in France: methods, results and lessons learnt This paper reviews two recent assessments undertaken in France for evaluating national scale consequences of global change for coastal hazards and risks, namely marine submersion and coastal erosion. In a first approach, the potential consequences of climate change were evaluated in a direct quantitative way, however with high uncertainties in the final evaluation. Recognizing that uncertainties could hardly be reduced, a second assessment based on a multi-criteria evaluation was then undertaken. Geomorphological and marine factors that account for physical vulnerability to coastal hazards were evaluated for 21 coastal entities in metropolitan France. The evaluation was structured using the analytical hierarchy process (AHP). The results highlighted the fact that in some specific regions such as Languedoc-Roussillon (Mediterranean coast) and Pertuis (Atlantic coast), the population is expected to increase more than the mean average, while the coastal zone are also likely to be more strongly affected by coastal hazards. While such national scale evaluations in highly diversified coastal environments are still arguable, they may help identifying unsustainability in current trends and help defining priorities for future adaptation strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: New paleoclimatic data for the Lateglacial clarify climatic phases during the Lateglacial. Cold climate played a key role in limiting Magdalenian expansion from southwest and central Europe This paper presents chronological and geographic data for the different climatic phases to map the expansion of the Magdalenian into northwest Europe. Specifically, it can be seen that initial expansion follows a southwest-northeast trajectory into southern Germany, followed by northern expansion into Belgium, central Germany and the Paris Basin at the end of the Oldest Dryas. During the Bølling and Allerød phases, human occupation intensified in the Paris Basin and contacts and/or territorial exploitation between both the Paris Basin and the Rhineland region with Belgian territory is demonstrated. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Objectives: Climate change may be considered as a key factor for environmental change, exposure to health risks and pathogens, consequently impairing the state of health among populations. Efficient health surveillance systems are required to support adaptation to climate change. However, despite a growing awareness, the public health surveillance sector has had very little involvement in the drafting of adaptation plans. This paper proposes a method to raise awareness about climate change in the public health community, to identify possible health risks and to assess the needs for reinforced health surveillance systems. Methods: A working group was set up comprising surveillance experts in the following fields: environmental health; chronic diseases and; infectious diseases. Their goal was to define common objectives, to propose a framework for risk analysis, and to apply it to relevant health risks in France. Results: The framework created helped to organize available information on climate- sensitive health risks, making a distinction between three main determinants as follows: (1) environment; (2) individual and social behaviours; and (3) demography and health status. The process is illustrated using two examples: heatwaves and airborne allergens. Conclusion: Health surveillance systems can be used to trigger early warning systems, to create databases which improve scientific knowledge about the health impacts of climate change, to identify and prioritize needs for intervention and adaptation measures, and to evaluate these measures. Adaptation requires public health professionals to consider climate change as a concrete input parameter in their studies and to create partnerships with professionals from other disciplines. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change impacts on wave conditions can increase the risk of offshore and coastal hazards. The present paper investigates wave climate multidecadal trends and interannual variability in the Bay of Biscay during the past decades (1958-2001). Wave fields are computed with a wave modeling system based on the WAVEWATCH III code and forced by 40-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Re-Analysis (ERA-40) wind fields. It provides both an extended spatiotemporal domain and a refined spatial resolution over the Bay of Biscay. The validation of the wave model is based on 11 buoys, allowing for the use of computed wave fields in the analysis of mean and extreme wave height trends and variability. Wave height, period, and direction are examined for a large array of wave conditions (by seasons, high percentiles of wave heights, different periods). Several trends for recent periods are identified, notably an increase of summer significant wave height, a southerly shift of autumn extreme wave direction, and a northerly shift of spring extreme wave direction. Wave fields exhibit high interannual variability, with a normalized standard deviation of seasonal wave height greater than 15%% in wintertime. The relationship with Northern Hemisphere teleconnection patterns is investigated at regional scale, especially along the coast. It highlights a strong correlation between local wave conditions and the North Atlantic Oscillation and the east Atlantic pattern indices. This relationship is further investigated at the local scale with a new method based on bivariate diagrams, allowing the identification of the type of waves (swell, storm, intermediate waves) impacted. These results are discussed in terms of comparison with previous studies and coastal risk implications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years the interest for coastal hazards has increased significantly due to extreme events, sometimes related to climate change, that frequently occur in different parts of the world, often inducing high risk situations. This paper outlines the objectives, perspectives and preliminary results of a research project entitled "Coastline at risk: Methods for multi-hazard assessment" which aims at providing useful knowledge for the mitigation of coastal instability. The project is managed by the European Centre on Geomorphological Hazards (Centre Européen sur les Risques Geomorphologiques, CERG) and funded by the EUR-OPA Major Hazards Agreement. Investigations are focused on coastal landslides in three different morpho-climatic European environments: Malta (Mediterranean coastline), Lower Normandy (Channel coastline) and Central Portugal (Atlantic coastline). The research outputs are expected to provide a significant opportunity for scientific discussion based on the comparison of data regarding instability situations in the context of multi-hazards assessment. The latter has until now dealt slightly with the coasts of Malta, Normandy and Portugal on which the investigations will be focused, despite significant risk issues present there, as evidenced from a series of accidents and damages recorded after landslide events. The aims of the project will be pursued through multidisciplinary investigations which foresee geomorphological and engineering-geological approaches. Integrated avant-garde research techniques, both traditional and innovative, will be applied with special reference to mapping, monitoring and modelling of coastal instability phenomena. The final objective is to propose a method for coastal multi-hazard assessment that can be used to face and manage coastal hazards. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: In this paper, we present a critical analysis of the distribution of Paleolithic sites between the Massif Central and the Pyrenees (southwestern France) to understand the settlement patterns during the last climatic deterioration of the Quaternary period. This analysis used recent stratigraphic and archaeological data from thousands of systematic test pits conducted for rescue archaeology in different geomorphological contexts. Our analysis addresses crucial questions about the role of the Garonne alluvial plain in this territory during the Upper Paleolithic. The implications are discussed in the context of this region of Europe, which was considered to be a favorable zone for human occupation during glacial periods. The conclusions reveal a division of this territory into two parts separated by a large unoccupied or rarely occupied zone. We discuss perspectives not only concerning the territoriality of the prehistoric groups who lived on the margins of this no man’s land, but also the cultural endemism that could have led to this geography, influenced by climatic conditions clearly more rigorous than previously recognized in this region. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The article offers information on the "Historical Climatology" conference that took place at the German Historical Institute in Paris, France from September 5-6, 2011. Papers presented at the conference discussed topics such as how historians can contribute to finding a solution to climate change, how climate change affected animals in England and Wales during the 14th century, and how certain types of documentary data can aid in the reconstruction of European climates.

This paper introduces an original method for climate change detection, called temporal optimal detection method. The method consists in searching for a smooth temporal pattern in the observations. This pattern can be either the response of the climate system to a specific forcing or to a combination of forcings. Many characteristics of this new method are different from those of the classical “optimal fingerprint” method. It allows to infer the spatial distribution of the detected signal, without providing any spatial guess pattern. The spatial properties of the internal climate variability doesn’t need to be estimated either. The estimation of such quantities being very challenging at regional scale, the proposed method is particularly well-suited for such scale. The efficiency of the method is illustrated by applying it on real homogenized datasets of temperatures and precipitation over France. A multimodel detection is performed in both cases, using an ensemble of atmosphere-ocean general circulation models for estimating the temporal patterns. Regarding temperatures, new results are highlighted, especially by showing that a change is detected even after removing the uniform part of the warming. The sensitivity of the method is discussed in this case, relatively to the computation of the temporal patterns and to the choice of the model. The method also allows to detect a climate change signal in precipitation. This change impacts the spatial distribution of the precipitation more than the mean over the domain. The ability of the method to provide an estimate of the spatial distribution of the change following the prescribed temporal patterns is also illustrated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Snow avalanches are natural hazards strongly controlled by the mountain winter climate, but their recent response to climate change has thus far been poorly documented. In this paper, hierarchical modeling is used to obtain robust indexes of the annual fluctuations of runout altitudes. The proposed model includes a possible level shift, and distinguishes common large-scale signals in both mean- and high-magnitude events from the interannual variability. Application to the data available in France over the last 61 winters shows that the mean runout altitude is not different now than it was 60 yr ago, but that snow avalanches have been retreating since 1977. This trend is of particular note for high-magnitude events, which have seen their probability rates halved, a crucial result in terms of hazard assessment. Avalanche control measures, observation errors, and model limitations are insufficient explanations for these trends. On the other hand, strong similarities in the pattern of behavior of the proposed runout indexes and several climate datasets are shown, as well as a consistent evolution of the preferred flow regime. The proposed runout indexes may therefore be usable as indicators of climate change at high altitudes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is to analyse the regional impact of recent climate change on the water resources in southern France. We produced spatial reconstructions of the monthly evolutions of temperature, precipitation and water discharge in 15 watersheds of six coastal river basins and examined the major changes based on trend analysis for the last 40 years. In this part of the Mediterranean, the general warming trend was strongly enhanced by changes in the atmospheric circulation patterns, characterized by a northward extension of the subtropical high pressure domain during spring and summer. During these seasons, monthly warming rates could achieve almost twice the mean annual warming rates. Although annual precipitation did not follow clear trends, water discharge significantly decreased in one third of the watersheds and accounted for an estimated 20% reduction of the water resources in this region. This concerns both the highest and lowest watersheds. In the former, the reduction is likely the result of a temperature induced switch of snowfall to rainfall at high altitudes. In the latter, the reduction of discharge seems to come from lower groundwater levels, which may be related to the temperature increase too, but also have other origins. The recent climatic evolution is consistent with most modelling simulations for the future, indicating that the reduction of the water resources will hold on, probably still enhanced by decreases in precipitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we investigate the impacts of future climatic change on the occurrence of debris flows in the Massif des Ecrins (French Alps). Two distinct aspects are discussed: the impact of future climatic change on the evolution of the process, and changes in the spatial distribution. Three climate simulations are presented for the current period (1970–1999) and for future periods (2070–2099) using GCM ARPEGE CLIMAT model developed by Météo-France. Simulated data are then statistically downscaled to obtain a higher spatial resolution. In the first step, we compare occurrence probabilities in the current period and in the next century. In the second step, we estimate which zones would be affected by the process in the future at the scale of the Massif des Ecrins. For the current period, the best model was obtained between debris flows and the number of days between June 15th and October 15th with more than 20 mm calculated either from observed meteorological or simulated data. Results of the ARPEGE model considering the A2 hypothesis (IPCC ) showed that the most significant climatic trends for the end of the century will be a decrease in intense rainy events and an increase in temperature. These trends are expected to reduce the occurrence of hill slope debris flows in the Massif des Ecrins. From a spatial point of view, the increase in temperature should result in a shift of the 0°C isotherm to a higher elevation which, in turn, should result in a 20% reduction of the number of slopes affected by the process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper considers the impact of the Younger Dryas on the prehistoric inhabitants of Pont d''Ambon, a site in the Dordogne region of southwestern France, through an examination of the zooarchaeological remains from this site. An investigation of patch choice indicates that patch choice evenness declines during the Younger Dryas due to increasing local dominance of the grassland patch. Analyses of demographic composition, cutmark frequency, and marrow processing in the wild European rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus) assemblage suggest intensified rabbit use during this period. This study thus supports the hypothesis that changing climate had significant impacts on the prehistoric inhabitants of Pont d''Ambon. However, the traditional climate hypothesis—that changing climate negatively impacted the availability of larger fauna, forcing a switch to smaller, lower-ranked prey items—is not supported here. The inhabitants of Pont d''Ambon seem to have adapted to changing climate by efficiently exploiting the new species available to them, and possibly, during the Younger Dryas, by intensifying their use of one of these new species, the European rabbit. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Freshwaters ecosystems continue to face pressures from pollution, flow regime alterations, habitat destruction and exotic species invasions despite their unique biodiversity. In Europe, National Parks and Special Areas of Conservation aim to provide protection of ‘aggregate’ biodiversity, yet inspection of priority species lists for these sites often reveals a focus towards terrestrial species. In regions such as the Alps and the Pyrénées, this is a particularly serious problem because climate change and other anthropogenic pressures (e.g. hydropower, tourism) are causing widespread hydrological modification which is likely to drive changes in aquatic species abundance, diversity and distribution. Improved understanding of the diversity of rare plants and animals is necessary so efforts can be cost-effectively targeted to conserve the maximum number of species, whilst a clearer picture of these species’ distributions is a precursor to targeting conservation efforts. This paper reports results of a study into the diversity and distribution of 17 endemic mayflies, stoneflies and caddisflies from 598 rivers sites across southern France. Endemic macroinvertebrates were found only at sites in the Pyrénées mountain range with richness peaking at 1500–1800m above sea level. Nine of these 17 species were recorded from <20 sites and two (Protonemura angelieri, Rhithrogena kimminsi) were found at only 10 sites. Despite both the rarity of these species and threats to their existence, none of them have any current conservation status. New conservation policies for freshwater ecosystems in the French Pyrénées need to be developed as a priority due to the rarity of many aquatic species in this area, growing threats to their existence (habitat modification, hydrological change), and to recognise their importance in food webs that may include other rare species of conservation value. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Information on several papers discussed at "13th IWRA World Water Congress" that was held in Montpellier, France from September 1-4, 2008, is presented. Topics include water availability, use and management, water resources and global changes towards the future, and development of water resources and infrastrucre. Aside from the usual oral scientific sessions, 14 special sessions were also presented, which include evaluation of the impact of climate changes in Arab region.

The warming observed over the past summers since 2000 is unprecedented in climate records in Europe and especially in France. Extreme temperatures and heat spells were often analyzed in the literature by applying extreme value theory but rarely in a non-stationary (NS) framework and duration modeling is often excluded. For a modern risk-based approach, it is important to have knowledge of the duration, magnitude, and frequency of occurrence of heat spells in a climate variability and change context. Yet, despite their obvious importance, teleconnections and associated climate indices (CIs) have often been excluded from heat spell modelling. The notion of duration is also not easily interpretable in a frequency analysis and can even be subtle, especially in a NS context. In this study, we used time-varying statistical distributions with parameters conditional on covariates representing the time and CIs. The daily maximum temperatures (DMTs) observed at the Orange and Dijon stations in France were used as a case study. This paper highlights a possible relationship between some large-scale climate patterns and the heat spells in France. Overall, the results suggest that considering the combined effect of global warming and these patterns in NS models is useful for a more appropriate characterization of the hazard heat spells in France. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The aim of this paper is to illustrate how some extreme events could affect forest ecosystems. Forest tree response can be analysed using dendroecological methods, as tree-ring widths are strongly controlled by climatic or biotic events. Years with such events induce similar tree responses and are called pointer years. They can result from extreme climatic events like frost, a heat wave, spring water logging, drought or insect damage… Forest tree species showed contrasting responses to climatic hazards, depending on their sensitivity to water shortage or temperature hardening, as illustrated from our dendrochronological database. For foresters, a drought or a pest disease is an extreme event if visible and durable symptoms are induced (leaf discolouration, leaf loss, perennial organs mortality, tree dieback and mortality). These symptoms here are shown, lagging one or several years behind a climatic or biotic event, from forest decline cases in progress since the 2003 drought or attributed to previous severe droughts or defoliations in France. Tree growth or vitality recovery is illustrated, and the functional interpretation of the long lasting memory of trees is discussed. A coupled approach linking dendrochronology and ecophysiology helps in discussing vulnerability of forest stands, and suggests management advices in order to mitigate extreme drought and cope with selective mortality. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Summary: Climate change will probably increase the frequency and intensity of low river flows, affecting both water quantity and water quality. Although climate change impacts on water quantity are widely recognised, the impacts on water quality are less known. The aim of this paper is to assess the effects of droughts on the water quality of the river Meuse in western Europe, based on analysis of existing water quality data. Time series of water quality were investigated at two monitoring stations during two severe drought periods, occurring in the years 1976 and 2003. Water quality during these droughts was investigated and compared to water quality during reference periods, representing common hydrological conditions and similar chemical pollution. A total amount of 24 water quality parameters were involved in the analysis, which can be divided into four groups: (1) general water quality variables (water temperature, chlorophyll-a, pH, dissolved oxygen and suspended solids), (2) nutrients, (3) major elements (e.g. chloride, fluoride) and (4) heavy metals and metalloids. To assess the effects of changes in discharge and water temperature on the concentration of chemical substances, empirical relations have been established between concentration and discharge, and between concentration and water temperature. The results indicate a general deterioration of the water quality of the Meuse river during droughts, with respect to water temperature, eutrophication, major elements, and some heavy metals and metalloids. This decline in water quality is primarily caused by favourable conditions for the development of algae blooms (high water temperatures, long residence times, high nutrient concentrations) and a reduction of the dilution capacity of point source effluents. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

In August 2003, Western Europe experienced a deadly heat wave. It is estimated that 15,000 people died in France from its direct effects. Applying an indirect estimation technique to the monthly number of deaths by sex, age, and place of residence for the period 1996-2003, we estimate the number of years that would have remained to those who died from the heat wave had they been spared. The paper also evaluates the role of the 'harvesting' effect of the 2003 heat wave in explaining the deficit of deaths recorded in 2004 - estimated at 23,000 out of an expected total of 535,000 deaths. The harvesting effect was modest and accounted for fewer than 5,000 of the 'missing' deaths in 2004. The mortality decline in 2004 is thus due mainly to other factors. One hypothesis is that special efforts have been directed towards isolated older people as a consequence of the heat wave. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reviews the climatic history of northern France from the grape harvest dates of the Burgundian vineyards. The grape harvest date is constrained by the mean surface air temperature during the growing season (April–August). At the start of the grape harvest dates series – during the 1380s and from 1415 to 1435 – the tendency is towards early harvest dates and warmer conditions, starvation due to crop scorching in 1420 included. During the second half of the 'Quattrocento', there are later harvest dates and cooler springs/summers, exemplified by the 1481 famine, due to rain and cold. The 1500s, 20s, 30s and 50s are characterised by blasts of warmer summers. The 'midsummer night's dream' (1596/7) can turn into a nightmare ... Then, a cold 'long seventeenth century'? This is quite pronounced from 1570 to 1630, with, however, a slight improvement around 1600–20. Major waves of hot summers were experienced during the 1630s, 60s and 80s. Is the Maunder minimum, between 1645 and 1715, responsible for a slight, synchronous, cooling? In this case, it would be mainly the Late Maunder Minimum (1675–1715), with the chill of 1675, the 1690s and 1709–1715. Then the great warming of the eighteenth century: the years 1704–07, 1718/9, the 1720s and 30s, 1757–65, the 1780s and above all 1778–81 all favour this interpretation, though we must not forget the cold, wet years 1725, 1740 and 1770. The years 1812–17 are not only snowy but also globally cold (due to the Tambora eruption in 1815 and the Dalton minimum?). And then there is the 1846 heatwave, so harmful to cereals. The Little Ice Age ends in 1860, with no return up to the present, the twentieth century warming from 1900, with an intensification of the phenomenon from 1976 and particularly the 1990s. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To assess the impacts of future climatic change, we need a better understanding of the relationships between debris flows dynamic and the climate. The subject of this paper is the variability in the response of debris flows to climatic change in recent decades in the Massif des Ecrins (French Alps). The climatic trend observed in the French Alps was characterized by analyzing data on extreme summer rainfall events recorded daily at nine stations located all over the Massif des Ecrins since 1960. According to the generalized Pareto law (GPD) our results showed that extreme summer rainfalls have increased significantly in the Massif des Ecrins since the 1980s. Statistical tests showed a significant increase in average annual air temperature. The response of 647 hill slope debris flows to this climatic change was investigated. Different types of hill slope debris flows were analyzed as a function of their lithology or the nature of the accumulated debris. A number of logistic regression based models were developed to characterize the relationship between climate and the occurrence of debris flows in a specific geomorphological context. Analysis of frequency and return period over the last two decades showed different patterns depending on the type of debris flow concerned. Hence, the response of hill slope debris flows to climatic change is not the same everywhere in the Massif des Ecrins. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper reports on small mountain glacier variations in the northern Belledonne region (French Alps). Between 1926 and 2006, the evolution is surveyed using remote-sensing techniques. Then, it is correlated with climate data for the same period. In the late 1920s and in 1980, there was a maximum extent of the glaciers. The 1980 surge is due to high precipitations during the late 1970s, a similar trend being punctually observed in 1993. Between 1980 and 2003, the Rocher Blanc glaciers have strongly receded, their total surface being divided by ten. From 1997 onward, the large retreat can be explained by the increase of the mean daily temperature, especially the minimum daily temperature. Moreover, unusually high temperatures have been registered during the summer 2003 heat wave. Small mountain glaciers appear to be more sensitive to climate change than larger ones. Their surfaces change within 6 to 12 months. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The existence of an increasing trend in average temperatures during the last 50 years is widely acknowledged. Furthermore, there is compelling evidence of the variability of extremes, and rapid strides are made in studies of these events. Indeed, by extending the results of the "extreme value theory" (EVT) to the non-stationary case, analyses can examine the presence of trends in extreme values of stochastic processes. Definition of extreme events, their statistical significance as well as their interpretations have to be handled with great care when used for environmental concerns and public safety. Thus, we will discuss the validity of the hypothesis allowing the use of mathematical theories for these problems. To answer safety requirements, respect installation norms and reduce public risk, return levels are a major operational goal, obtained with the EVT. In this paper, we give quantitative results for observations of high temperatures over the 1950--2003 period in 47 stations in France. We examined the validity of the non-stationary EVT and introduced the notion of return levels (RL) in a time-varying context. Our analysis puts particular accent on the difference between methods used to describe extremes, to perform advanced fits and tests (climatic science), and those estimating the probability of rare future events (security problems in an evolving climate). After enouncing the method used for trend identification of extremes in term of easily interpretable parameters of distribution laws, we apply the procedure to long series of temperature measurements and check the influence of data length on trend estimation. We also address the problem of choosing the part of observations allowing appropriate extrapolation. In our analysis, we determined the influence of the 2003 heat wave on trend and return-level estimation comparing it to the RL in a stationary context. The application of the procedure to 47 stations spread over France is a first step for a refined spatial analysis. Working on the behavior of distribution parameters while assessing trend identification is a primary tool in order to classify climatic change with respect to the location of the station and open a systematic work using the same methodology for other variables and multivariate studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Migration is a widespread strategy that enables animals to escape harsh winter conditions. It has been well documented that migration phenology in birds is changing in response to recent climate warming in the northern hemisphere. Despite the existence of large temporal and geographical scale ringing data on birds in Europe, changes in migration strategies in relation to climate warming have not been well studied, mainly because of a lack of appropriate statistical methods. In this paper, we develop a method that enables us to investigate temporal changes in migration strategies from recoveries of dead ringed birds. We estimated migration probability as the ratio between recovery probabilities of conspecific birds originating from different countries but potentially wintering in the same country. We applied this method to two European thrushes: the entirely migrant redwing Turdus iliacus, and the partially migrant blackbird T. Merula. We tested for an immediate and a 1-year lagged relationship between our migration probability and climatic covariates (i. E. Mean winter temperature in France and the North Atlantic Oscillation). Using ringing-recovery data collected in Finland, Germany, Switzerland and France from 1970 to 1999, we detected contrasting responses in these two species, likely related to their different migratory behaviours. Both species showed a decline in the probability for northern and eastern birds to winter in France. The entirely migratory redwing exhibited a year-to-year plastic response to climate, whereas the decline in the partially migrant blackbird was smooth, suggesting underlying genetic processes. The proposed method, thus, allows us to identify useful indicators of climatic impacts on migration strategies, as well as highlighting differences between closely related species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]