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Fire risk analysis of electric vehicles and internal combustion vehicles in open car parks: part 2: fire safety and reliability analysis In order to counteract climate change, it is necessary to switch from vehicles with combustion engines to electric vehicles. Consequently, an increasing number of electric vehicles can be observed in Germany. In this context, the question arises whether and if how this development influences the fire risks in open car parks. Answers to this question are the subject of a research project under the leadership of the Institute of Steel Construction of Leibniz University Hannover in cooperation with the iBMB, Division of Fire Safety, of TU Braunschweig. In particular, the project is investigating the influence of a fire scenarios with electric vehicles compared to vehicles with combustion engines on the load‐bearing behaviour structure of an open car park. In this paper, the methodological approach to evaluate the fire risk based on a reliability analysis for the load‐bearing structure of these car parks is explained. By means of the reliability analysis, the fire risk assessment procedure is illustrated for the composite beam using exemplary fire scenarios. As a result, it can be concluded from the fire risk analysis that fire scenarios with electric vehicles do not have a higher fire risk than conventional vehicles with combustion engines and fulfil the required safety level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the face of climate and ecological crises, it is vital that car use be reduced, while simultaneously shifting towards different powertrains and reducing the size, weight and energy demand of vehicles. This poses a challenge to the global car industry, as its business model historically centres on selling more and larger cars. In this context, the purpose of this paper is to examine the social-ecological limits of industrial restructuring in Germany. A narrative literature review through the lens of Marxian political economy sheds light on intertwined system-immanent barriers to achieving social and ecological sustainability at the sectoral level. Consequently, powertrain electrification is structured by technological dynamism, which fuels appropriation in the quest for metals and rare earths, with significant social and ecological disadvantages. This generates an impasse for the industry's transition strategies. Understanding how capitalist tendencies generate interlaced and mutually re-enforcing barriers to achieving social-ecological sustainability is key to understanding why industrial transitions are insufficient from a social-ecological perspective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on a review of existing research on adaptive capacity, we identify a research gap in theorizing institutions, power structures, and agency in municipal climate change adaptation processes. Drawing on sociological institutionalism, governmentality, and communicative planning theory, we use post-structuralist concepts of power to to elucidate the collective (de-)mobilization of existing stocks of capacities within municipal institutions of adaptation with a focus on structural power and agency in participation processes. The concept of reflexive capacity is introduced as the ability of organizations such as municipal administrations to incorporate diverse stakeholders and knowledge into decision-making processes in a local context, which is derived from the relationship of power with with power over. The emergence and transformation of reflexive capacity are illustrated and discussed with one case study municipality in Germany, revealing the potential of this concept for the analysis of participation in adaptation processes and the power structures that are inherent to them. In the paper, we incorporate the concept of reflexive capacity with established concepts of adaptive capacity, creating an integrated framework termed institutional adaptive capacity. The analysis concludes that examining power structures and agency in the context of climate change adaptation explains how capacity stocks and individual psychosocial capacity mobilization are institutionally embedded and influenced by reflexive capacity. We argue that the consideration of power structures and agency can provide a complementary approach to explaining adaptive capacity and call for further transdisciplinary empirical research on this topic in different settings of state-initiated adaptation processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Flood embankments are generally designed by assuming steady-state flow conditions and dry soil above the phreatic surface. However, steady-state conditions are rarely achieved and a significant portion of the embankment remains unsaturated upon a flood event. If transient water flow and partial saturation are considered, the flood embankment can be designed with steeper slopes on the landside, which may lead to significant savings in terms of earthfill material (i.e., embodied carbon) and footprint (i.e., habitat suppression and expropriation costs). This paper examines the case of flood embankments in the tidal area of the Elbe River in Germany. These embankments must be retrofitted by raising their crest from 5 to 7 m because of the new projection of extreme river levels due to climate change. In this paper, the conventional "prescriptive" design consisting of raising the embankment by maintaining the 1:3 inclination of the landside slope is compared with the "performance-based" design where the inclination of the slope on the landside could be potentially increased up to 1:1, which is shown to be sustainable if partial saturation and transient water flow are considered. Raising the flood embankment with 1:1 landside slope (rather than 1:3) could lead to expropriation cost savings on the order of €3.9 M/km. For the case of a newly built embankment of 7 m height, the saving would become €4.5 M/km. An approximate estimation of embodied carbon suggests that the carbon saving would be on the order of 3,100–4,200 tCO2e/km. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hydrogeological effects of climate change will continue to affect water reservoirs worldwide. Some regions are experiencing and will experience severe decline in their water resources due to prolonged periods of drought. Since emergency practices such as the provision of emergency drinking water and forest firefighting depend on regional surface and groundwater resources, the safety of the hydro geosphere's of a region is of fundamental importance, especially in times of crisis. The study uniquely addresses the integration of emergency water management within broader sustainable practices, particularly in the German context where such an analysis has not been previously consolidated. Using the example of emergency drinking water management, the paper elaborates the extent to which measures of emergency response are currently recognised as part of sustainable water management. In an analysis, 79 documents addressing emergency drinking water management of both water supply companies and crisis management authorities in Germany were analysed. The findings revealed a general lack of documents addressing the long-term dependencies between water resources and emergency measures currently applied. Furthermore, the documents do not elaborate on how to implement these measures in a sustainable way recognising the distinctive characteristics of a region. Since response measures can potentially intensify water stress in a region, emergency water management must be consequently included in a holistic water management process to protect landscapes and communities for the future. This paper provides a first comprehensive compilation of essential documents dealing with emergency drinking water management in Germany. It furthermore introduces a new approach to emergency water management and identifies necessary research that could serve as a baseline for future crisis decision making to strengthen national and international initiatives on water resource protection. • Holistic water management must include water intense measures of emergency response. • Procedures of crisis management can intensify processes of regional water depletion. • Performance of emergency response can decline in times of long-term dryness. • The management of water emergencies requires adaptation to regional hydrogeography. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In striving to achieve the Paris Agreement and the 2030 Agenda, governments have the opportunity to implement their climate and sustainability goals more coherently. Such coherence requires the coordination of interdependent policies across different policy fields, sectors and actors. This paper explores how governments design and implement synergic solutions to concomitantly achieve both international agendas. With the empirical cases of Germany and South Africa, we investigate two independent approaches to the synergic solution of a just energy transition, whereby countries aim to phase out coal as a means to tackle climate change while also ensuring that the achievement of other Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is not hindered. Methodologically, we apply a deductive qualitative approach consisting of literature review, semi-structured interviews, and content analysis. To that end, we examine relevant policies and institutional arrangements by applying a combined conceptual framework of energy justice and just transition in both countries. We find major challenges in overcoming environmental, economic and social burdens of the coal phase-out, especially related to jobs and inequality (SDGs 8, 10) and the Water-Energy-Food-Land nexus (SDGs 2, 6, 7, 15). Through the selection of Germany and South Africa, we illustrate how countries with different political, social and economic backgrounds strive to manage such a transition. Our developed framework and case-studies' findings point towards important considerations when designing just energy transition pathways, such as ensuring inclusiveness in decision-making, thoroughly assessing social, economic and environmental impacts, and adequately coordinating across different actors and the local, provincial and national levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Human-induced climate change is one of the most pressing challenges of our time. The Helmholtz Association is making essential research contributions to mitigate the causes and impacts of climate change and find ways to adapt. The "Net-Zero-2050" project, the Cluster I of the Helmholtz Climate Initiative, scientifically investigates and evaluates strategies and new ways to reduce, extract and permanently store carbon emissions. Two digital knowledge transfer products (DKTPs) were developed to present the complex research results comprehensively: (1) the "Net-Zero-2050 Web-Atlas" provides information on methods and technologies for CO 2 reduction and possible reduction paths; (2) the "Soil Carbon App" provides simulated soil carbon data to estimate climate protection potentials through different land management methods. Both formats intend to support users in making informed decisions and developing appropriate climate neutrality strategies. During the two DKTPs development, common main challenges were identified regarding concepts and stakeholder involvement. Along with that, specific approaches to solving the tasks could be distilled for each product. In the still-evolving arena of digital knowledge transfer, no standard methods can be applied. At the same time, communication of climate research results to decision-makers is becoming more and more relevant. This paper extracts the challenges and gives approaches to facilitate a transfer of the gained experience to future similar projects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In Germany, Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii Franco) is seen as a valuable species for future cultivation in times of climate change. Local seed production in seed stands and seed orchards may secure that local adaptation is transferred to the next generation, but small population sizes could lower genetic diversity and thus future adaptability. Here we analyse the transfer of genetic diversity from parent to offspring generation in four older German seed orchards. We detected low pollen contamination rates due to high levels of spatial isolation. Even with a relatively low number of 40 clones, seed orchard design with randomized and repeated planting of clones led to low selfing rates, and despite uneven parental contributions, the number of successful parents and the level of genetic intermixture were high enough to allow the transfer of an adequate part of the genetic diversity to the next generation. Larger numbers, however, might be needed to reliably conserve the entire genetic diversity over succeeding generations. Conclusions on the establishment of future seed orchards and regarding areas requiring further research are drawn at the end of the paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Embodied emissions in the building sector The global, manmade CO2‐emissions remain on a high level. Too high to meet the objectives that were set in the Paris agreement on climate change in 2015. Reducing the global warming to 1,5 °C compared to preindustrial times seems to be a hopeless endeavor. When it comes to a sustainable future, the building industry is the most critical sector since it emits the most climate harming CO2‐emissions. In this paper we address the embodied emissions that occur with production, implementation and disassembly of construction materials in Germany. It is shown what limits must not be overtaken and which manners enable a reduction of emissions in early planning phases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China is one of the parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and has been actively promoting the multilateral global climate governance process. China has advanced its eco-civilization construction and the agenda for combating climate change in a coordinated manner, and delivered positive results. By studying and interpreting the guiding principles of President Xi Jinping's important speeches at the Leaders Summit on Climate and the video summit between China, France and Germany, this paper goes over the basic thinking of China's participation in international climate governance and the Chinese approach to tackling global climate change, and sums up China's achievements in the fields such as transition to green and low-carbon development, energy structure adjustment, greenhouse gases control, the construction of national carbon market, as well as its contribution to tackling global climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nature-based solutions (NBS) for mitigating climate change are gaining popularity. The number of NBS is increasing, but research gaps still exist at the governance level. The objectives of this paper are (i) to give an overview of the implemented NBS for flood risk management and mitigation in Germany, (ii) to identify governance models that are applied, and (iii) to explore the differences between these models. The results of a hierarchical clustering procedure and a qualitative analysis show that while no one-size-fits-all governance model exists, polycentricism is an important commonality between the projects. The study concludes by highlighting the need for further research on traditional governance model reconversion and paradigm changes. We expect the findings to identify what has worked in the past, as well as what is important for the implementation of NBS for flood risk management in future projects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Strong public support is a prerequisite for ambitious and thus costly climate change mitigation policy, and strong public concern over climate change is a prerequisite for policy support. Why, then, do most public opinion surveys indicate rather high levels of concern and rather strong policy support, while de facto mitigation efforts in most countries remain far from ambitious? One possibility is that survey measures for public concern fail to fully reveal the true attitudes of citizens due to social desirability bias. In this paper, we implemented list-experiments in representative surveys in Germany and the United States (N = 3620 and 3640 respectively) to assess such potential bias. We find evidence that people systematically misreport, that is, understate their disbelief in human caused climate change. This misreporting is particularly strong amongst politically relevant subgroups. Individuals in the top 20% of the income distribution in the United States and supporters of conservative parties in Germany exhibit significantly higher climate change skepticism according to the list experiment, relative to conventional measures. While this does not definitively mean that climate skepticism is a widespread phenomenon in these countries, it does suggest that future research should reconsider how climate change concern is measured, and what subgroups of the population are more susceptible to misreporting and why. Our findings imply that public support for ambitious climate policy may be weaker than existing survey research suggests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The global dimensions of climate change necessitate a response that takes national differences – social, economic, geographic, and cultural – into account. Action-oriented education has a key role to play in advancing citizen engagement in a culture of sustainability. This paper describes research conducted with one such education programme, Youth Leading Environmental Change (YLEC), which operates in six countries and engages university-aged youth in discussion and practice related to global sustainability, systems thinking, and environmental justice. YLEC aims to advance four key competencies; this paper focuses on the goal of action competence, which involves acquiring knowledge, reflecting on experience in the context of one’s values, envisioning alternative futures, and acting individually and collectively to advance those alternatives. The present article examines the impacts of YLEC on environmental action competence in two of the countries involved in this research: Uganda and Germany. In-depth interviews were conducted with participants in both countries to examine the development of action competence during and after the programme. Findings suggest that outcomes differed in each country, reflective of participants’ different lived experiences. YLEC effectively built on the conditions faced in each country to accompany youth to a higher level of awareness and action. These findings have implications for environmental education programmes striving to work with multiple nations and diverse participants. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

While climate change has become a salient political and social issue in Western societies, we know relatively little about how these societies will react to one of the potentially important consequences of climate change: increasing migration flows. By means of a representative online survey in Germany, this paper therefore investigates for the very first time to what extent citizens in industrialized societies are willing to accept climate change migrants, especially in comparison with other groups of migrants and refugees, and the circumstances and principles under which they would accept them. The findings show that climate change migrants receive high support levels comparable with those enjoyed by political refugees (migrants who need special protection) and that contrast with attitudes towards economic migrants (who are often not seen as in need of special protection). We also see that people are more likely to accept justifications for taking climate change migrants when they realize that the expected number of migrants is relatively low. While arguments about morality, corrective justice, and a country's capacity lead to similar acceptance rates in general, the latter argument plays a more important role for highly educated people and non-environmentalists than the former two. The findings of this study allow us to better prepare for potential conflicts that might emerge with increasing migration flows caused by climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Multi-modal energy system planning approach to support political decision makers. • Energy sector coupling enables efficient transition pathway to achieve climate goals. • Main drivers: electrification of heat and mobility sectors and use of synthetic fuels. • High impact of the electricity exchange on the operation and costs of the system. In order to reach the goals of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, a stepwise reduction of energy related greenhouse gas emissions as well as an increase in the share of renewable energies is necessary. For a successful realization of these changes in energy supply, an integrated view of multiple energy sectors is necessary. The coupling of different energy sectors is seen as an option to achieve the climate goals in a cost-effective way. In this paper, a methodical approach for multi-modal energy system planning and technology impact evaluation is presented. A key feature of the model is a coupled consideration of the sectors electricity, heat, fuel and mobility. The modeling framework enables system planners to optimally plan future investments in a detailed transition pathway of the energy system of a country, considering politically defined climate goals. Based on these calculations, in-depth analyses of energy markets as well as electrical transmission and distribution grids can be performed using the presented optimization models. Energy demands, conversion and storage technologies in households, the Commerce, Trade and Services (CTS) area and the industry are modeled employing a bottom-up modeling approach. The results for the optimal planning of the German energy system until 2050 show that the combination of an increased share of renewable energies and the direct electrification of heat and mobility sectors together with the use of synthetic fuels are the main drivers to achieve the climate goals in a cost-efficient way. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In view of the current geopolitical situation, the EU and its Member States are accelerating efforts to reduce their dependency on fossil fuel imports, while simultaneously tackling the climate crisis. With heating in buildings accounting for a large share of the energy consumption in the EU, policies to phase-out fossil fuels for heating and to switch to renewables are key elements. In the context of the proposed actions to phase-out fossil fuels at EU level, this article provides a systematic analysis of current and planned phase-out regulations for fossil fuel boilers in the EU Member States. The paper quantifies the share of energy consumption for heating that is addressed by such regulations and finds that the current regulations only address about 10% of the total fossil energy consumption for heating in the EU. The share increases to almost 30% when considering the planned regulations, reflecting the fact that large energy consumers such as Germany and the Netherlands have announced such regulations. The analysis shows that several Member States with high energy consumption for heating have neither implemented nor announced plans to introduce phase-out regulations for fossil fuel heating. The study concludes that immediate policy action is needed both at EU and at Member State levels. At EU level, the proposed introduction of an end-date for stand-alone fossil fuel boilers needs to be substantiated and implemented into the legislative framework. At the national level, phase-out regulations for fossil fuel boilers need to be expanded both in quantity and scope. [Display omitted] • Systematic analysis of phase-out regulations for fossil fuel boilers in the EU. • Only 10% of the EU fossil energy used for heating is covered by phase-out regulations. • Including planned regulations, the share of heating energy covered by phase-out regulations increases to almost 30%. • Comparison of different approaches for implementing regulations for phasing out fossil fuel boilers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The primary objective of this paper was to determine the circulation conditions of the occurrence of cold spells in Poland and Germany. The observed inconsiderable warming slightly contributed to a change in the number of cold days and cold spells. The occurrence of cold spells in Poland and Germany was related to considerably more active and intensive pressure systems than on average in the winter season in the studied years. A strong high pressure system was located over much of the continent, blocking westerly circulation. During the occurrence of cold spells, negative anomalies of isobaric surface heights were recorded with the greatest anomalies being in the 300–250 hPa heights. The highest air temperature anomalies were recorded on the lowest isobaric levels, where they amounted to <−10°C. On average, anomalies on the 300 hPa isobaric level began developing approximately 9 days before the beginning of cold spells over the study area. The decay of cold spells was not related to rapid exchange of air masses, but rather to gradual weakening of anomalies in the upper troposphere, and their shifting westwards. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Company cars have received considerable attention because of their partial tax-exemption and the changes in travel behaviour they stimulate, including car model choices, distances driven, and car ownership patterns. This paper is the first to present evidence on actual transport behaviour change, based on mobility and fuel diaries, and comparing a sample of 624 company cars and 9328 private cars in Germany. Analysis confirms that company cars belong to the more heavily motorized car segments (with an average 97 kW, as opposed to 79 kW of private cars), and are driven more than private cars (24,672 km per year, compared to 12,828 km per year for private cars). Company car benefits also increase average household vehicle numbers by 25%. Results show that it is imperative to distinguish company cars of company owners relative to those driven by employees, as negative externalities increase significantly where company cars are used by the latter. Abolishing company car benefits could significantly reduce emissions from passenger road transport and stimulate change in the country's automotive industries towards a lower-carbon path. As Germany is not currently on track to meet its climate mitigation targets, this would be a timely policy shift. Key policy insights Company car benefits increase transport demand, car ownership, and average vehicle fleet engine power. These effects are particularly relevant for employees. Company cars have, in spite of their larger size and greater engine power, a (modestly) better fuel economy than private cars, possibly because they represent more recent and hence more efficient car models. A policy focus on vehicle fuel efficiency improvements will fail to reduce the German car fleet's CO2 emissions to a sustainable level. Abolishing company car benefits could yield a significant reduction in GHG emissions from passenger road transport. Company car subsidies are an out-dated mode of support for the fossil-fuel based automotive industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cities are major drivers of environmental change at all scales and are especially at risk from the ensuing effects, which include poor air quality, flooding and heat waves. Typically, these issues are studied on a city-by-city basis owing to the spatial complexity of built landscapes, local topography and emission patterns. However, to ensure knowledge sharing and to integrate local-scale processes with regional and global scale modelling initiatives, there is a pressing need for a world-wide database on cities that is suited for environmental studies. In this paper we present a European database that has a particular focus on characterising urbanised landscapes. It has been derived using tools and techniques developed as part of the World Urban Database and Access Portal Tools (WUDAPT) project, which has the goal of acquiring and disseminating climate-relevant information on cities worldwide. The European map is the first major step toward creating a global database on cities that can be integrated with existing topographic and natural land-cover databases to support modelling initiatives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Local public health authorities often lack the capacity to adapt to climate change, despite being on the 'front lines' of climate impacts. Upper-level governments are well positioned to create an enabling environment for adaptation and build local public health authorities' capacity, yet adaptation literature has not specified how upper-level governments can build local-level adaptive capacity. In this paper we examine how federal and regional governments can contribute to enabling and supporting public health adaptation to climate change at the local level in federal systems. We outline the local level's self-assessed adaptive capacity for public health adaptation in Canadian and German comparative case studies, in terms of funding, knowledge and skills, organizations, and prioritization, drawing upon 30 semi-structured interviews. Based on interviewees' recommendations and complemented by scientific literature, we develop a set of practical measures that could enable or support local-level public health adaptation. We find that adaptive capacity varies widely between local public health authorities, but most report having insufficient funding and staff for adaptation activities. We propose 10 specific measures upper-level governments can take to build local public health authorities' capacity for adaptation, under the interrelated target areas of: building financial capital; developing and disseminating usable knowledge; collaborating and coordinating for shared knowledge; and claiming leadership. Federal and regional governments have an important role to play in enabling local-level public health adaptation, and have many instruments available to them to fulfill that role. Selecting and implementing measures to enable local public health authorities' adaptive capacity will require tailoring to, and consideration, of the local context and needs. Highlights • Local public health authorities often lack capacity to adapt to climate change. • National and regional governments can play supportive or enabling role. • We propose 10 concrete measures to enable local public health adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The deployment of onshore wind power is an important means to mitigate climate change. However, wind turbines also have negative impacts at the local scale, like disamenities to residents living nearby, changes in landscape quality, or conflicts with nature conservation. Our paper quantifies spatial trade-offs arising between these criteria. For this purpose, we propose a novel approach using Pareto frontiers and a Gini-like potential trade-off indicator. Our analysis builds on a spatial optimization model using geographical information system data for Germany. We show that spatial trade-offs between the criteria under consideration are substantial. The size of the trade-off varies substantially with the criteria under consideration, depending on the spatial heterogeneity of each criterion as well as on the spatial correlation between the criteria. Spatial trade-offs are particularly pronounced between nature conservation (measured by impacts on wind power-sensitive birds) and other criteria. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How do natural disasters affect electoral participation? The existing social science literature offers contradictory predictions. A considerable body of research in sociology and psychology suggests that traumatic events can inspire pro-social behaviour, which might increase turnout. Yet, political science has long held that even minor changes to participation costs of low benefit activities can lead to considerable drops in civic engagement. Consequently, natural disasters should reduce electoral participation. We show how these distinct views can be jointly analysed within the Riker-Ordeshook model of voting. This paper then reports results on the impact of the 2002 and 2013 floods in Germany on turnout in federal and state elections in Saxony and Bavaria, conducted few weeks after the floods. Analysing community level turnout data, and drawing on a difference-in-differences framework, we find that flood exposure has a consistent negative effect on turnout. This indicates that the increase in the costs of voting outweighed any increase in political engagement in our case and stands in contrast to findings from developing contexts, where flood management was convincingly linked to electoral participation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The projected climate change signals of a five-member high resolution ensemble, based on two global climate models (GCMs: ECHAM5 and CCCma3) and two regional climate models (RCMs: CLM and WRF) are analysed in this paper (Part II of a two part paper). In Part I the performance of the models for the control period are presented. The RCMs use a two nest procedure over Europe and Germany with a final spatial resolution of 7 km to downscale the GCM simulations for the present (1971-2000) and future A1B scenario (2021-2050) time periods. The ensemble was extended by earlier simulations with the RCM REMO (driven by ECHAM5, two realisations) at a slightly coarser resolution. The climate change signals are evaluated and tested for significance for mean values and the seasonal cycles of temperature and precipitation, as well as for the intensity distribution of precipitation and the numbers of dry days and dry periods. All GCMs project a significant warming over Europe on seasonal and annual scales and the projected warming of the GCMs is retained in both nests of the RCMs, however, with added small variations. The mean warming over Germany of all ensemble members for the fine nest is in the range of 0.8 and 1.3 K with an average of 1.1 K. For mean annual precipitation the climate change signal varies in the range of −2 to 9 % over Germany within the ensemble. Changes in the number of wet days are projected in the range of ±4 % on the annual scale for the future time period. For the probability distribution of precipitation intensity, a decrease of lower intensities and an increase of moderate and higher intensities is projected by most ensemble members. For the mean values, the results indicate that the projected temperature change signal is caused mainly by the GCM and its initial condition (realisation), with little impact from the RCM. For precipitation, in addition, the RCM affects the climate change signal significantly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A five-member ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) simulations for Europe, with a high resolution nest over Germany, is analysed in a two-part paper: Part I (the current paper) presents the performance of the models for the control period, and Part II presents results for near future climate changes. Two different RCMs, CLM and WRF, were used to dynamically downscale simulations with the ECHAM5 and CCCma3 global climate models (GCMs), as well as the ERA40-reanalysis for validation purposes. Three realisations of ECHAM5 and one with CCCma3 were downscaled with CLM, and additionally one realisation of ECHAM5 with WRF. An approach of double nesting was used, first to an approximately 50 km resolution for entire Europe and then to a domain of approximately 7 km covering Germany and its near surroundings. Comparisons of the fine nest simulations are made to earlier high resolution simulations for the region with the RCM REMO for two ECHAM5 realisations. Biases from the GCMs are generally carried over to the RCMs, which can then reduce or worsen the biases. The bias of the coarse nest is carried over to the fine nest but does not change in amplitude, i.e. the fine nest does not add additional mean bias to the simulations. The spatial pattern of the wet bias over central Europe is similar for all CLM simulations, and leads to a stronger bias in the fine nest simulations compared to that of WRF and REMO. The wet bias in the CLM model is found to be due to a too frequent drizzle, but for higher intensities the distributions are well simulated with both CLM and WRF at the 50 and 7 km resolutions. Also the spatial distributions are close to high resolution gridded observations. The REMO model has low biases in the domain averages over Germany and no drizzle problem, but has a shift in the mean precipitation patterns and a strong overestimation of higher intensities. The GCMs perform well in simulating the intensity distribution of precipitation at their own resolution, but the RCMs add value to the distributions when compared to observations at the fine nest resolution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is considerable research on the climate effects of daily travel, including research on the spatio-temporal and socioeconomic impact factors of daily travel and associated climate change effects. However, this is less true with respect to long-distance trips. This paper uses national transport survey data from Germany to point out differences in GHG emissions related to demographic, socioeconomic and spatial characteristics for daily and long-distance travel. Daily travel and long-distance travel are investigated simultaneously and separately using Logit and OLS regressions. The results show that transport-related GHG emissions from long-distance trips and daily trips are affected by sociodemographics in largely the same direction. In contrast, spatial attributes, like municipality size or density grade of the region, show a different picture. Per capita emissions in rural and suburban areas are higher for daily trips, but lower for long-distance trips than emissions caused by urban residents. While we cannot rule out the possibility of residential self-selection, our findings challenge the idea that compact urban development may help reduce CO 2 emissions once long-distance trips are taken into account. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper investigates the effect of future sea-level rise (SLR) on the tides of the northwest European Continental Shelf. The European shelf tide is dominated by semidiurnal constituents. This study therefore focuses primarily on the changes in the M2 tidal constituent and the spring and neap tidal conditions. The validated operational Dutch Continental Shelf Model is run for the present day sea-level as well as 2 and 10m SLR scenarios. The M2 tidal amplitude responds to SLR in a spatially non-uniform manner, with substantial amplitude increases and decreases in both scenarios. The M2 tidal response is non-linear between 2 and 10m with respect to SLR, particularly in the North Sea. Under the 2m SLR scenario the M2 constituent is particularly responsive in the resonant areas of the Bristol Channel and Gulf of St. Malo (with large amplitude decreases) and in the southeastern German Bight and Dutch Wadden Sea (with large amplitude increases). Changes in the spring tide are generally greater still than those in the M2 or neap tides. With 2m SLR the spring tidal range increases up to 35cm at Cuxhaven and decreases up to −49cm at St. Malo. Additionally the changes in the shallow water tides are larger than expected. With SLR the depth, wave speed and wave length (tidal resonance characteristics) are increased causing changes in near resonant areas. In expansive shallow areas SLR causes reduced energy dissipation by bottom friction. Combined these mechanisms result in the migration of the amphidromes and complex patterns of non-linear change in the tide with SLR. Despite the significant uncertainty associated with the rate of SLR over the next century, substantial alterations to tidal characteristics can be expected under a high end SLR scenario. Contrary to existing studies this paper highlights the importance of considering the modification of the tides by future SLR. These substantial future changes in the tides could have wide reaching implications; including for example, correctly calculating design level requirements for flood defences, the availability of tidal renewable energy and dredging requirements. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The paper presents a case study in which land use strategies to mitigate Climate Change effects are developed for a model in Saxony, Germany. In this region, the degree of freedom to respond to Climate Change with land-cover changes is very small. Based on a participatory process, an approach was developed to extend land-cover classes (e.g. forest, agriculture) by land management classes. In this paper, the focus is on the forest management classification. In the discussion with regional actors, four recommendations were identified that must be fulfilled to make land management classes regionally applicable and relevant. They should (1) reflect the effectiveness of management practices to mitigate Climate Change impacts, (2) express different management objectives, (3) show the compatibility with future trends (new crops, new public demands) and (4) provide a link to land-cover data. Finally, 22 mixed land-cover and management classes in forestry and around 30 classes in agriculture could be derived. For a test case on afforestation of agricultural sites the paper demonstrates that a more differentiated look at land management practices instead of land-cover classes helps to improve the understanding of (a) regional potentials to adapt to Climate Change and to mitigate its effects and (b) the impact of sectoral management strategies at landscape level on the provision of ecosystem services. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The last ten years have witnessed an increase in publications focusing on bioeconomy as a proposal to confront the global challenges of climate change, depletion of non-renewable resources and ecosystem degradation. This paper investigates the scientific literature on issues related agricultural bioeconomy by applying a bibliometric network analysis. Bibliometric analysis is applied to the publications of the Scopus database during the period 2010–2020 in order to provide an overview of the main aspects that characterize agricultural bioeconomy. The results showed that out of a total of 1100 scientific papers, only 2.45% were published in 2010, while the corresponding share in 2020 was 20.81%. In the five years of 2016–2020, cumulatively, 70.63% of the publications were made, showing the dynamic evolution of bioeconomy. In addition, out of 85 countries in total, Germany and Italy are the two countries with most publications, while the fragmentation of research is evident with the creation of two main nodes, the European and the American. Moreover, keyword analysis showed that biomass and sustainability are two main recurring concepts, confirming that, currently, bioeconomy operates at three different levels: energy demand, land demand, and governance. It is apparent that to boost the development of agricultural bioeconomy, the following aspects should be assessed: the effective use of resources, an understanding of the key drivers of agricultural bioeconomy, and a clear perception of their associations. There is still no consensus as to which are the key factors that will accelerate its sustainable development. Our pursuit is to use the tools of bibliometric analysis to reach more critical conclusions regarding the agricultural bioeconomy, rather than approach it in a static way. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to present, from the perspectives of Germany and Japan, some of the major issues facing the international community in reaching agreement on the Kyoto Protocol and its implementation. It also provides the background leading up to the creation of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the Berlin Mandate, and the Kyoto Protocol. Although the protocol was finally signed by all participating countries (except a few) after long, protracted negotiations, the Berlin Mandate, the legally-binding minimum targets set forth for reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2008 to 2012, and the priorities given to domestic solutions over external measures provided some countries, notably the United States, an excuse for rejecting the protocol. During the subsequent international negotiations Germany took a lead in pushing the hard-line European Union position, while Japan tried to mediate between the European Union and the soft-line United States position to bring the two sides closer together in an attempt to bring the United States back into the protocol, get it ratified by as many signatory countries as possible, and put into effect as soon as possible. The paper concludes that while the protocol's fate appears to have ended up in the hands of Russia, the greatest hurdle for GHG emissions reduction lies ultimately in the extent to which the governments of developed countries and European economies in transition can convince their citizens, corporations, and other entities to meet those targets within the prescribed time limit. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Germany is the leader among countries belonging to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) in reducing its emissions of the Kyoto basket of greenhouse gases (GHGs), having accomplished an emissions reduction of 18.9 percent from 1990 to 2000. This paper aims to explain the reasons for this success and to examine the impacts of the adoption of the Kyoto Protocol on the development of Germany's climate policy. In order to identify the factors that determined this outcome, we divide our examination of the policy process in Germany since 1987 into five periods and will evaluate it with a focus on policy measures implemented and actors as well as the institutions involved. It concludes that domestic factors, including the participation of the Greens in the coalition government, mainly determined Germany's success in developing advanced climate policies and measures to reduce its GHG emissions. The paper also highlights the importance of the linkage of climate policy with other policies, which provided incentives to those who would otherwise have opposed or remained neutral on the development of climate policy. As such, the adoption of the Kyoto Protocol did not have a direct impact on climate policy development in Germany, but it did have an indirect impact in that it triggered the development of common and coordinated policies and measures at the European Union (EU) level in order to achieve its quantified GHG reduction target of 8 percent committed to under the Kyoto Protocol, as seen in the introduction of an EU-wide emissions trading scheme. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many studies have analysed the environmental impact of vegan, vegetarian, or reduced meat diets. To date, literature has not evaluated how diet shifts affect environmental impacts by utilising portfolios which reflect personal nutrition preferences. Further, changing diets could alter the available land for non-food uses. This paper defines novel diet portfolios to outline alternative diet transitions and choices within the population and finds their effect on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, primary energy use, and land use in Germany. The aim of this study is to capture how these diet shifts affect land availability and increase the options for land-based climate change mitigation strategies. To do so, a contextualisation is made to compare the use of freed-up land for afforestation or biomethane production (with and without carbon capture and storage). The investigated diet portfolios lead to a reduction of the investigated impacts (GHG emissions: 7–67%; energy use: 5–46%; land use: 6–64%). Additionally, afforestation of freed-up land from each diet portfolio leads to further emission removals of 4–37%. In comparison, using the land to produce energy crops for biomethane production could lead to 2–23% further CO2-eq emission reductions when replacing fossil methane. If biomethane production is paired with carbon capture and storage, emission abatement is increased to 3–34%. This research indicates various short-term pathways to reduce GHG emissions with portfolio diet shifts. Utilising freed-up land for climate change mitigation strategies could prove essential to meet climate targets, but trade-offs with, e.g. biodiversity and ecosystem services exist and should be considered. • Diet portfolios are used to represent realistic population diets. • Diet portfolios include a mixture of 12 different diets. • GHG emissions decrease by 67% if the population adopts a Vegan diet. • Afforestation removes almost double the emissions compared to biomethane. • BECCS has similar GHG abatement to afforestation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper addresses the important question of how institutional structures matter to the delivery of climate change policy for urban transport. It examines the strategic goals, policy tools in operation and initial progress towards carbon emission reduction in seven cities across the UK and Germany where different institutional structures exist. The UK has the presence of a strong national carbon target and strong hierarchical national–local government relationships whilst Germany has a more integrated system of local transport provision in a context where local and regional government is stronger. Our findings show that the carbon agenda has made very little difference to what is happening on the ground in the cities. Across all sites, progress is being made but largely through technological improvements which are being almost completely offset by population growth. Even in the more integrated city environments there has not be an additional stimulus to manage the demand for travel. Contrary to previous research therefore, we cannot conclude that institutional structures are paramount in delivering effective carbon reduction policies. The institutional structures in the UK and in Germany are not perfectly aligned to carbon management but, given the cross policy impacts of most transport interventions, this is perhaps inevitable. We can clearly conclude however that “better” structures are not sufficient to achieve the implementation of more effective carbon policies. Whilst institutional structures must matter, it is the broader governance environment and the resources and politics involved in transport policy that currently seem to dominate the importance of the carbon agenda and implementation paths that emerge. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The results of a survey of climate change developments in South Africa and Germany from the perspective of its relevance to extreme actions on infrastructure are presented in this paper. It is concluded that the importance of climate change is broad and varied. However incorporation into practice is mostly nominal. Although general trends of climate change are confirmed, proper information on changes in extreme conditions is limited. Coastal engineering seems to be the field which is most active in providing for climate change. It is concluded that risk-based methodologies developed to treat the variability and uncertainties of extreme actions and consequences in present practice provide a sound basis for treating the effects of climate change in a rational and optimal manner. It is also clear that there is strong motivation for extensive research as the best action to be taken presently, anticipating appropriate adjustment of re-optimised design methodologies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper focuses upon the youngest terraces of the Moselle and its tributary the Meurthe ( NE France and SW Germany). It includes research on several sections, in particular the key sections of Golbey- Pré Droué and Thörnich- Hochrech (located in the vicinity of the Vosges Massif and in the Rhenish Massif, respectively), and the use of the Optically Stimulated Luminescence ( OSL) dating method. Our investigations made it possible to obtain a more robust chronostratigraphical framework and to update the previous model of fluvial response to climate change. The results demonstrate that the Moselle terrace M3 (first terrace formed after the capture of the Upper Moselle by the Palaeo- Meurthe) has the same age from the Vosges to the Rhenish Massif. The formation of this terrace included two main periods of sedimentation attributed to the Late Saalian ( MIS 6) and the Early Weichselian ( MIS 5), respectively. They were separated by a major episode of fluvial erosion that may be allocated to the MIS 6-5 transition on the basis of chronological and sedimentological evidence. This erosion led to the removal of most of the MIS 6 deposits, whereas the MIS 5 deposits have been widely preserved following the subsequent ( MIS 5-4) terrace incision. This evolution somewhat contrasts with that observed in the Sarre valley, the main tributary of the Moselle, and with many fluvial systems in western Europe, which show better preservation of deposits from cold periods. This atypical behaviour is explained by the relationship between the fluvial evolution and the glaciers covering the upper Moselle catchment ( Vosges Massif) during the Pleistocene cold periods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Hamburg Water Group owns and operates a sewer network with a total length of more than 5,700 km. There has been increasing attention paid to the possible impacts of predicted changes in precipitation patterns on the sewer network infrastructure. The primary objective of the work presented in this paper is an estimation of the hydraulic impacts of climate change on the Hamburg drainage system. As a first step, simulated rainfalls based on the regional climate model REMO were compared and validated with long-term precipitation measurements. In the second step, the hydraulic effects on the sewer network of Hamburg have been analyzed based on simulated long-term rainfall series for the period of 2000-2100. Simulation results show a significant increase in combined sewer overflows by 50% as well as an increase in surcharges of storm sewer manholes. However, there is still a substantial amount of uncertainty resulting from model uncertainty and unknown development of future greenhouse gas emissions. So far, there seems to be no sound basis for the implementation of an overall climate factor for sewer dimensioning for the Hamburg region. Nevertheless, possible effects of climate change should be taken into account within the planning process for major sewer extensions or modifications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Climate impact analysis of air transport from Germany. • Scenario dependent forecast of passenger flights from Germany. • Scenario dependent forecast of specific emissions by traffic regions. • Focus on both CO 2 and NO x emissions. • Forecast of climate impact effects for three scenarios up to the year 2100. Transport is considered to be a major contributor to emissions, resulting in a deterioration of local air quality and contributing to global climate change. The present paper focuses on how passenger flights departing from German airports contribute to global climate change. We describe in detail, how traffic forecasts for three scenarios entitled Reference, Free Play and Regulated Shift have been developed and how the resultant emissions have been quantified. Subsequently, we applied a climate model, providing insights into the very long-term climate effects under different assumptions on emissions up to the year 2100. The modelling framework shows that the development of emissions results from complex interactions of demand development and supply decisions, which highly influence the climate impact. With this paper, we show that an integrated, multi-disciplinary analysis can create valuable indicators and advice for transport policy decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• An analytical framework is applied to identify barriers to adaptation. • A case study of the transport sector of Bogotá, Colombia is presented. • The analysis identified information, resources and incentives barriers. • The institutional environment is the most influential underlying factor. • There is potential for this study to be replicated in other parts of the world. The adaptation of transport systems to climate change is crucial for maintaining city functions in the future. Due to the complexity of this process, urban transport planners may not always be aware of all challenges they must face, leading to maladaptation or lack of adaptation of the transport systems of their cities. Recognising this complexity, this paper identifies barriers and opportunities for effective adaptation planning via a socio-technical perspective. An existing analytical framework, previously used in some cities of Latin America and Germany, is adopted and applied to a case study of Bogotá, Colombia. Interviews conducted with local professionals and a review of policy documents and technical reports provided insight into city governance processes and the extent to which climate change adaptation shapes transport sector decisions. The study reveals that incomplete or unusable information about climate change and its effects, reduced availability of economic and human resources, and the lack of adequate incentives are limiting adaptation within the transport planning processes of the city. It also demonstrates the critical influence of the institutional structure in determining which infrastructure options are considered feasible and preferable. The study elucidates what levers are available to transport planners and why some solutions are just not considered. There is potential for this study to be replicated in other parts of the world to help support the development of effective systemic intervention to support adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hydrogen is fast becoming a new international "super fuel" to accelerate global climate change ambitions. This paper has two inter-weaving themes. Contextually, it focuses on the potential impact of the EU's new Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) on fossil fuel-generated as opposed to green hydrogen imports. The CBAM, as a transnational carbon adjustment mechanism, has the potential to impact international trade in energy. It seeks both a level playing field between imports and EU internal markets (subject to ambitious EU climate change policies), and to encourage emissions reduction laggards through its "carbon diplomacy". Countries without a price on carbon will be charged for embodied carbon in their supply chains when they export to the EU. Empirically, we focus on two hydrogen export/import case studies: Australia as a non-EU state with ambitions to export hydrogen, and Germany as an EU Member State reliant on energy imports. Energy security is central to energy trade debates but needs to be conceptualized beyond supply and demand economics to include geopolitics, just transitions and the impacts of border carbon taxes and EU carbon diplomacy. Accordingly, we apply and further develop a seven-dimension energy security-justice framework to the examples of brown, blue and green hydrogen export/import hydrogen operations, with varying carbon-intensity supply chains, in Australia and Germany. Applying the framework, we identify potential impact—risks and opportunities—associated with identified brown, blue and green hydrogen export/import projects in the two countries. This research contributes to the emerging fields of international hydrogen trade, supply chains, and international carbon diplomacy and develops a potentially useful seven-dimension energy security-justice framework for energy researchers and policy analysts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under the circumstances of increasingly visible climate change, most notably in the phenomenon of global warming, it has become more and more clear that the energy industry based on the exploitation of fossil fuels has significantly contributed to this development. Therefore, many countries acknowledge the need for a policy paradigm shift in the field of energy policy, which implies an increased relying on renewable energy sources and the improvement of energy efficiency. The author conducts a case study of Germany -- a forerunner in European efforts to link the energy industry based on renewable sources and environmental protection, and also on maintaining the security of energy supply. The paper tests whether this orientation of Germany is based on its policy capacity -- "the ability to marshal the necessary resources to make intelligent collective choices about and set strategic directions for the allocation of scarce resources to public ends" (Painter i Pierre, 2005: 2), and concludes that it is the internal state determinants, rather than policy diffusion, which have played a central role in Germany's attainment of a leadership position in the accomplishment of the "new energy paradigm". [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For the purpose of coastal planning and management, especially under changing climatic conditions, enhanced knowledge about the evolution of extreme sea levels in the past, present, and future is required. This paper presents statistical analyses of high seasonal water level percentiles of 13 tide gauges in the German Bight, spanning over a period of up to 109 years throughout the twentieth and twenty-first centuries. Seasonal and annual high percentile time series of water levels were investigated in comparison to the mean sea level (MSL) for changes on seasonal, inter-annual, and decadal timescales. While throughout the first half of the twentieth century extreme water levels generally followed changes in MSL, during the second half of the century, linear extreme sea level trends exceeded those in MSL in the order of 9-64 cm per century. The largest, although insignificant, contribution to the magnitude of these trends occurs in the winter season (January to March), while smaller but, due to the generally lower atmospheric variability, significant changes are observed during spring (April to June). The observed multi-decadal trends are generally in good agreement with multi-decadal trends in the corresponding percentiles of local zonal surface winds. Only small parts of the trends remain unexplained. It is suggested that these remaining trends result from modifications in the local tidal regime. For the aspects of coastal planning, the findings clarify that in the German Bight, in addition to changes in MSL, potential changes in storminess and in the tidal regime significantly contribute to the development of extreme water levels. Since these factors have influenced the characteristic of extremes throughout the recent past, they also have to be taken into account when estimating design water levels for, e.g., dikes (in a warming climate) under changing greenhouse gas emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since several destructive floods have occurred in Germany in the last decades, it is of considerable interest and relevance ( e.g., when undertaking flood defense design) to take a closer look at the climatic factors driving the changes in flood hazard in Germany. Even if there also exist non-climatic factors controlling the flood hazard, the present paper demonstrates that climate change is one main driver responsible for the increasing number of floods. Increasing trends in temperature have been found to be ubiquitous in Germany, with impact on air humidity and changes in (intense) precipitation. Growing trends in flood prone circulation pattern and heavy precipitation are significant in many regions of Germany over a multi-decade interval and this can be translated into the rise of flood hazard and flood risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: In this paper, the dependence of ozone-forming potential on temperature was analysed based on data from two stations (with an industrial and rural background, respectively) in North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany, for the period of 1983–2007. After examining the interrelations between ozone, NO x and temperature, a projection of the days with ozone exceedance (over a limit value of a daily maximum 8-h average≥120 μg m−3 for 25 days per year averaged for 3 years) in terms of global climate change was made using probability theory and an autoregression integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. The results show that with a temperature increase of 3 K, the frequency of days when ozone exceeds its limit value will increase by 135% at the industrial station and by 87% at the rural background station. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

A general increase in precipitation has been observed in Germany in the last century, and potential changes in flood generation and intensity are now at the focus of interest. The aim of the paper is twofold: a) to project the future flood conditions in Germany accounting for various river regimes (from pluvial to nival-pluvial regimes) and under different climate scenarios (the high, A2, low, B1, and medium, A1B, emission scenarios) and b) to investigate sources of uncertainty generated by climate input data and regional climate models. Data of two dynamical Regional Climate Models (RCMs), REMO (REgional Model) and CCLM (Cosmo-Climate Local Model), and one statistical-empirical RCM, Wettreg (Wetterlagenbasierte Regionalisierungsmethode: weather-type based regionalization method), were applied to drive the eco-hydrological model SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model), which was previously validated for 15 gauges in Germany. At most of the gauges, the 95 and 99 percentiles of the simulated discharge using SWIM with observed climate data had a good agreement with the observed discharge for 1961-2000 (deviation within ±10 %). However, the simulated discharge had a bias when using RCM climate as input for the same period. Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distributions were fitted to the annual maximum series of river runoff for each realization for the control and scenario periods, and the changes in flood generation over the whole simulation time were analyzed. The 50-year flood values estimated for two scenario periods (2021-2060, 2061-2100) were compared to the ones derived from the control period using the same climate models. The results driven by the statistical-empirical model show a declining trend in the flood level for most rivers, and under all climate scenarios. The simulations driven by dynamical models give various change directions depending on region, scenario and time period. The uncertainty in estimating high flows and, in particular, extreme floods remains high, due to differences in regional climate models, emission scenarios and multi-realizations generated by RCMs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Place of the Old Synagogue is a popular place in the city center of Freiburg, a medium-sized city in southwest Germany. It is going to be redesigned soon. In this paper the impact of urban street design and surface material on human thermal comfort is analyzed using the example of the Place of the Old Synagogue. The models SkyHelios, RayMan, and ENVI-met were applied to quantify and qualify the changes. All three models are freely available. Their combination allows analysis of development in long-term conditions, as well as changes in spatial distribution of thermal comfort, as well as of heat stress in summer. Results show that the models can provide valuable information. About the Place of the Old Synagogue, quantitative results show that the period with heat stress will become longer, while the intensity of heat stress increases. The spatial results show that the most significant changes are due to changes in shading. Nevertheless, an increase in thermal stress up to 10 °C is calculated for areas, where ground coverage changes from grass to pavement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Long-term ecological research has become a cornerstone of the scientific endeavour to better understand ecosystem responses to environmental change. This paper provides a perspective on how such research could be advanced. It emphasizes that a profound understanding of the mechanisms underlying these responses requires that records of ecologic processes be not only sufficiently long, but also collected at an appropriate temporal resolution. We base our argument on an overview of studies of climate impacts in limnic and marine ecosystems, suggesting that lakes and oceans respond to (short-term) weather conditions during critical time windows in the year. The observed response patterns are often time-lagged or driven by the crossing of thresholds in weather-related variables (such as water temperature and thermal stratification intensity). It becomes clear from the previous studies that average annual, seasonal or monthly climate data often fall short of characterizing the thermal dynamics that most organisms respond to. To illustrate such literature-based evidence using a concrete example, we compare 2 years of water temperature data from Müggelsee (Berlin, Germany) at multiple temporal scales (from hours to years). This comparison underlines the pitfalls of analysing data at resolutions not high enough to detect critical differences in environmental forcing. Current science initiatives that aim at improving the temporal resolution of long-term observatory data in aquatic systems will help to identify adequate timescales of analysis necessary for the understanding of ecosystem responses to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: New paleoclimatic data for the Lateglacial clarify climatic phases during the Lateglacial. Cold climate played a key role in limiting Magdalenian expansion from southwest and central Europe This paper presents chronological and geographic data for the different climatic phases to map the expansion of the Magdalenian into northwest Europe. Specifically, it can be seen that initial expansion follows a southwest-northeast trajectory into southern Germany, followed by northern expansion into Belgium, central Germany and the Paris Basin at the end of the Oldest Dryas. During the Bølling and Allerød phases, human occupation intensified in the Paris Basin and contacts and/or territorial exploitation between both the Paris Basin and the Rhineland region with Belgian territory is demonstrated. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

For the assessment of regional climate change the reliability of the regional climate models needs to be known. The main goal of this paper is to evaluate the quality of climate model data that are used for impact research. Temperature, precipitation, total cloud cover, relative humidity, and wind speed simulated by the regional climate models Climate Local Model (CLM) and Regional Model (REMO) are evaluated for the metropolitan region of Hamburg in northern Germany for the period 1961-2000. The same evaluation is performed for the global climate model ECHAM5 that is used to force the regional climate models. The evaluation is based on comparison of the simulated and observed climatological annual cycles and probability density functions of daily averages. Several model evaluation measures are calculated to assure an objective model evaluation. As a very selective model evaluation measure, the hit rate of the percentiles is introduced for the evaluation of daily averages. The influence of interannual climate variability is considered by determining confidence intervals for the model evaluation measures by bootstrap resampling. Evaluation shows that, with some exceptions, temperature and wind speed are well simulated by the climate models; whereas considerable biases are found for relative humidity, total cloud cover, and precipitation, although not for all models in all seasons. It is shown that model evaluation measures can be used to decide for which meteorological parameters a bias correction is reasonable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents an interactive multi-agent scenario assessment model and uses it to examine the future impact of climate change on winter tourism in the German and Austrian Alps. It is based on the 10-year 2001–2010 German GLOWA (GLObal change of the WAter cycle)-Danube project, which investigated climate change impacts over a broad range of sectors, using a high-resolution model to rate tourism development in the Upper Danube catchment area under many different future climate and societal scenarios. Its regionally differentiated analysis of the effects of climate change on both tourism supply and demand is essential because tourism varies at the small scale concerning natural resources as well as market segments. The project produced simulated numbers of overnight stays and operating days for specific ski areas, thus evaluating 50-year implications for the winter tourism industry. Three different ski areas are used to describe the functionality of the whole simulation system. As the model analyses tourism development at a high level of individualisation, it sensitises policymakers to the importance of forward planning using sustainable adaptation strategies, breaking new ground by examining the many and complex interacting factors impacting winter sports tourism, including demand shifts between specific ski areas. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]