Search

The paper examines the relationships between ENSO events and tropical cyclones (TCs) in the western North Pacific (WNP) during the ENSO decaying phase of March to July [MAMJJ(1)]. It is shown that WNP TC response is asymmetric to ENSO warm and cold events during MAMJJ(1), associated with the asymmetric patterns of oceanic and atmospheric environmental variables. Eastern Pacific warm events correspond to a westward shift in TC genesis location and a significant decrease of the TC number in the southwest subregion of the WNP, which is consistent with unfavorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions for TC activity during MAMJJ(1). Correspondingly, there is a much less WNP TC number, a shorter TC duration, and a decreased tendency in all three primary TC tracks. During MAMJJ(1) of eastern Pacific cold events, an increased TC activity in the northeast subregion results in an enhanced TC genesis number in the WNP. Central Pacific ENSO events have little effect on WNP TC activity during MAMJJ(1), except that central Pacific warm events are unfavorable for TCs to form in the northwest subregion associated with atmospheric and oceanic conditions. The paper also compares and discusses the TC response to ENSO events during the ENSO developing year of March-July. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a comment on a 2017 paper by Cheung et al., Kravtsov states that the results of Cheung et al. are invalidated by errors in the method used to estimate internal variability in historical surface temperatures, which involves using the ensemble mean of simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) to estimate the forced signal. Kravtsov claims that differences between the forced signals in the individual models and as defined by the multimodel ensemble mean lead to errors in the assessment of internal variability in both model simulations and the instrumental record. Kravtsov proposes a different method, which instead uses CMIP5 models with at least four realizations to define the forced component. Here, it is shown that the conclusions of Cheung et al. are valid regardless of whether the method of Cheung et al. or that of Kravtsov is applied. Furthermore, many of the points raised by Kravtsov are discussed in Cheung et al., and the disagreements of Kravtsov appear to be mainly due to a misunderstanding of the aims of Cheung et al. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The statistical method, Average Predictability Time (APT) decomposition, is used in the present paper to estimate the decadal predictability of upper ocean heat content over the global ocean, North Pacific and North Atlantic, respectively. The twentieth century simulations from CMIP5 outputs are the main data sources in this study. On global scale, the leading predictable component is characterized by a warming trend over the majority of oceans, which is related to the anthropogenic forced response. The second predictable component has significant loadings in the North Atlantic, especially in the subtropical region, which originates from the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) predictability. To separate interactions among different ocean basins, we further maximize APT in individual North Pacific and North Atlantic oceans. It is found that the second and the third predictable component in North Pacific are significantly correlated with the well-known North Pacific Gyre Oscillation mode and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation respectively. Upper limit prediction skill of these two components are on the order of 6 years. In contrast, the most predictable component derived from the North Atlantic features an AMO-like spatial structure with its prediction skill up to 18 years, while the basin mode due to global warming only exists as the third component. This indicates the interdecadal variability in the North Atlantic is strong enough to mask the anthropogenic climate signals. Furthermore, predictability in the real world is also investigated and compared with model results by using observation-based data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Few if any high-resolution (annually resolved) paleoclimate records are available for the Hawaiian Islands prior to ~1850 CE, after which some instrumental records start to become available. This paper shows how atmospheric teleconnection patterns between North America and the northeastern North Pacific (NNP) allow for reconstruction of Hawaiian Islands rainfall using remote proxy information from North America. Based on a newly available precipitation dataset for the state of Hawaii and observed and reconstructed December-February (DJF) sea level pressures (SLPs) in the North Pacific Ocean, the authors make use of a strong relationship between winter SLP variability in the northeast Pacific and corresponding DJF Hawaii rainfall variations to reconstruct and evaluate that season's rainfall over the period 1500-2012 CE. A general drying trend, though with substantial decadal and longer-term variability, is evident, particularly during the last ~160 years. Hawaiian Islands rainfall exhibits strong modulation by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), as well as in relation to Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO)-like variability. For significant periods of time, the reconstructed large-scale changes in the North Pacific SLP field described here and by construction the long-term decline in Hawaiian winter rainfall are broadly consistent with long-term changes in tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) based on ENSO reconstructions documented in several other studies, particularly over the last two centuries. Also noted are some rather large multidecadal fluctuations in rainfall (and hence in NNP SLP) in the eighteenth century of undetermined provenance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The inter-annual variability of the tropical Pacific Subsurface Ocean Temperature Anomaly (SOTA) and the associated anomalous atmospheric circulation over the Asian North Pacific during the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) were investigated using National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) atmospheric reanalysis data and simple ocean data simulation (SODA). The relationship between the ENSO and the climate of China was revealed. The main results indicated the following: 1) there are two ENSO modes acting on the subsurface tropical Pacific. The first mode is related to the mature phase of ENSO, which mainly appears during winter. The second mode is associated with a transition stage of the ENSO developing or decaying, which mainly occurs during summer; 2) during the mature phase of El Niño, the meridionality of the atmosphere in the mid-high latitude increases, the Aleutian low and high pressure ridge over Lake Baikal strengthens, northerly winds prevail in northern China, and precipitation in northern China decreases significantly. The ridge of the Ural High strengthens during the decaying phase of El Niño, as atmospheric circulation is sustained during winter, and the northerly wind anomaly appears in northern China during summer. Due to the ascending branch of the Walker circulation over the western Pacific, the western Pacific Subtropical High becomes weaker, and south-southeasterly winds prevail over southern China. As a result, less rainfall occurs over northern China and more rainfall over the Changjiang River basin and the southwestern and eastern region of Inner Mongolia. The flood disaster that occurred south of Changjiang River can be attributed to this. The La Niña event causes an opposite, but weaker effect; 3) the ENSO cycle can influence climate anomalies within China via zonal and meridional heat transport. This is known as the 'atmospheric-bridge', where the energy anomaly within the tropical Pacific transfers to the mid-high latitude in the northern Pacific through Hadley cells and Rossby waves, and to the western Pacific-eastern Indian Ocean through Walker circulation. This research also discusses the special air-sea boundary processes during the ENSO events in the tropical Pacific, and indicates that the influence of the subsurface water of the tropical Pacific on the atmospheric circulation may be realized through the sea surface temperature anomalies of the mixed water, which contact the atmosphere and transfer the anomalous heat and moisture to the atmosphere directly. Moreover, the reason for the heavy flood within the Changjiang River during the summer of 1998 is reviewed in this paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: In this paper, the multi-decadal variations of the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index were studied to determine their influence on tropical cyclones (TCs) using the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) method and Hilbert spectral analysis. The ENSO and PDO are closely associated with various oceanic and atmospheric factors that govern TC activities in the western North Pacific (WNP). From the analysis results, multi-decadal oscillations with characteristic periods of 13 and 32.5years from MEI, and about 16.7 and 32.8years from PDO, were obtained. These values showed good agreement with the values obtained in other studies. The results of category 4–5 TCs and category 5 TCs also showed possible multi-decadal oscillations of about 15- and 37-year timescales, indicating that low frequency multi-decadal oscillations of intense TC occurrence in the WNP is influenced by the multi-decadal oscillations of ENSO and PDO. When seeking adaptation and mitigation measures for future climate scenarios, the multi-decadal variations of climate and their impacts on extreme events such as TCs should be taken into account together with the background of the global warming trend. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Climate may affect marine fish populations through many different pathways, operating at a variety of temporal and spatial scales. Climate impacts may work their way bottom up through the food web or affect higher trophic levels more directly. In this review we try to disentangle and summarize some of the current knowledge made available through the rapidly increasing literature on the topic, with particular emphasis on the work within the Global Ocean Ecosystems Dynamics (GLOBEC) programme. We first consider different classification schemes and hypotheses relating climate through physical features of the ocean to population patterns. The response of a population or community to climate may be linear or non-linear, direct or indirect. The hypotheses may be classified according to the form of physical features in operation as being related to mixing, advection or temperature. The bulk of the paper is devoted to a region-by-region presentation and discussion of examples relating climate variability to marine fish populations. It is slanted towards the North Atlantic and North Pacific, but the tropical Pacific is also covered. By means of different categorization methods we compare climate responses between ecosystems. We conclude that the use of such classification schemes allows for a more precise description of the various ecosystems particular properties and facilitates inter-regional comparison. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

A major difficulty in investigating the nature of interdecadal variability of climatic time series is their shortness. An approach to this problem is through comparison of models. In this paper a first-order autoregressive [AR(1)] model is contrasted with a fractionally differenced (FD) model as applied to the winter-averaged sea level pressure time series for the Aleutian low [the North Pacific (NP) index] and the Sitka winter air temperature record. Both models fit the same number of parameters. The AR(1) model is a “short-memory” model in that it has a rapidly decaying autocovariance sequence, whereas an FD model exhibits “long memory” because its autocovariance sequence decays more slowly. Statistical tests cannot distinguish the superiority of one model over the other when fit with 100 NP or 146 Sitka data points. The FD model does equally well for short-term prediction and has potentially important implications for long-term behavior. In particular, the zero crossings of the FD model tend to be farther apart, so they have more of a “regimelike” character; a quarter century interval between zero crossings is 4 times more likely with the FD than the AR(1) model. The long-memory parameter δ for the FD model can be used as a characterization of regimelike behavior. The estimated δs for the NP index (spanning 100 yr) and the Sitka time series (168 yr) are virtually identical, and their size implies moderate long-memory behavior. Although the NP index and the Sitka series have broadband low-frequency variability and modest long-memory behavior, temporal irregularities in their zero crossings are still prevalent. Comparison of the FD and AR(1) models indicates that regimelike behavior cannot be ruled out for North Pacific processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Understanding the role of the oceans in the Earth's changing climate requires comprehension of the relevant metabolic pathways which produce climatically important trace gases. The global ocean represents one of the largest natural sources of nitrous oxide (N2O) that is produced by selected archaea and/or bacteria during nitrogen (N) metabolism. In this study, the role of nitrite (NO2 −) in the production of N2O in the upper water column of the oligotrophic North Pacific Subtropical Gyre was investigated, focusing primarily on the lower euphotic zone where NO2 − concentrations at the primary NO2 − maximum reached 195nmolL−1. Free-drifting sediment trap arrays were deployed to measure N cycle processes in sinking particulate material and the addition of selected N substrates to unpreserved sediment traps provided an experimental framework to test hypotheses regarding N2O production pathways and controls. Sinking particles collected using NO2 −-amended, unpreserved sediment traps exhibited significant production of N2O at depths between 100 and 200m. Subsequent stable isotope tracer measurements conducted on sediment trap material amended with 15NO2 − yielded elevated δ15N values of N2O, supporting N2O production via a NO2 − metabolism pathway. Experiments on seawater collected from 150m showed N2O production via NO2 − metabolism also occurs in the water-column and indicated that the concentration of NO2 − relative to NH4 + availability may be an important control. These findings provide evidence for the production of N2O via nitrifer-denitrification in the lower euphotic zone of the open ocean, whereby NO2 − is reduced to N2O by ammonia-oxidizing microorganisms. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) in surface seawater has been measured in the northeastern Pacific Ocean at Station P and along Line P since 1973. These data have been divided into ‘oceanic’ and ‘coastal/transition’ zones, and the seasonal and interannual variability and the long-term trends for each zone have been examined. The oceanic zone shows little seasonality in surface seawater pCO2, with undersaturation throughout the year. A strong, biologically-driven seasonal cycle is offset by variation in temperature-dependent solubility of CO2. The coastal/transition zone shows a decline in pCO2 from winter–spring through summer and fall that is likely the result of seasonal stratification and convection rather than coastal upwelling. Interannual variability all along Line P is correlated with the multivariate ENSO index (MEI), with lower seawater pCO2 associated with El Niño conditions. Correlations with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation Index are similar but weaker, in part because there are few data prior to the 1976 regime shift. The long-term trend in seawater pCO2 in the oceanic zone is +1.36±0.16μatmyear−1, indistinguishable from the atmospheric growth rate, and varies little among the seasons. In the coastal/transition zone a slow increase in the pCO2 of surface seawater relative to that of the atmosphere has led to increasing undersaturation, particularly in spring. Aliasing of the seasonal and interannual variability due to sampling frequency may explain part of the observed trend in the coastal/transition zone, but real changes in physical or biological processes are also possible and require more detailed study. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: As part of the research program Western Pacific Environment Study on CO2 Ocean Sequestration for Mitigation of Climate Change (WEST-COSMIC), plankton sampling was carried out down to great depths (maximum: 5800m) at four stations (44°N, 155°E; 39°N, 147°E; 30°N, 147°E and 25°N, 137°E) located in the western North Pacific Ocean. Ranges of plankton standing stock integrated over the water columns were wet mass (WM) 22–256gm-2, dry mass (DM) 1.3–27.4gm-2, carbon (C) 0.4–12.3gCm-2, nitrogen (N) 0.10–2.44gNm-2, ash (ash) 0.43–4.35gm-2, ash-free dry mass (AFDM) 0.9–21.8gm-2 and energy 20–582kJm-2. Log-linear equations were computed to allow interconversions among measurements in different mass units. Plankton mass was greater at higher latitudes. At each station, plankton mass decreased exponentially with increasing depth. This decrease was greater at subarctic (44°N) and subtropical (30°N and 25°N) stations than that at the transitional station (39°N) due to high amounts of diapausing copepods in meso- and bathypelagic depths at the latter station. Water content (% of WM), C:N ratios and ash (% of DM) increased with increasing depth, while C, N, AFDM (% of DM) and energy contents (Jmg-1 DM) showed an opposite pattern. Extremely low C (24–25% of DM), N (3.2–4.4% of DM), AFDM (48–56% of DM) and energy contents (10–12Jmg-1 DM), accompanied by high C:N ratios (5.7–8.0 by weight), of plankton samples from depths below 3000m suggest possible dominance of detritus in samples from that layer. The overall effect of detritus in measuring chemical composition of plankton samples is discussed. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]