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In Scotland, there is ongoing concern about the status of geography in education. Numbers of pupils studying geography have been falling at a time when the relevance and importance of geography should be high, given the significance of issues like climate and biodiversity change. Why people choose to study geography is crucial knowledge for a vibrant discipline seeking to grow the subject and perceptions of its value. This paper is a companion paper to Selmes et al. (2022) which reported on quantitative data about geographers in the Scottish secondary and tertiary education sectors. This paper confirms that the tide is turning for geography study in Scotland, with entries now rising at all levels. Furthermore, an online survey of 93 pupils found that they choose to study geography because they enjoy the lessons and are interested in the content, feeling able in the subject and that it will be useful in paid work. Conversely, pupils say they choose not to study geography when they do not perceive it will be useful in their career or because they have not found it interesting or an enjoyable experience. The question for all professional geographers is how we might together improve on the current situation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

All sites have a climate change story. Interpretation of climate change at historic sites has largely been limited to global warming's physical impacts. This paper provides case studies from the U.S. and Scotland of places where practitioners are working to expand beyond that framework to add new relevance and impact to climate change interpretation. Historic and natural places can be interpreted to make powerful connections, showing visitors how we came to this moment of climate crisis and helping them understand their roles in addressing this challenge. Especially as climate change intensifies and threatens not just the natural and historic places we admire, but our own homes and ways of life, it becomes increasingly important we connect with our past to secure our future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Between 2018 and 2020, CyArk, Google Arts and Culture and the International Council for Monuments and Sites (ICOMOS) worked together on the Heritage on the Edge project. Launched on the Google Arts and Culture platform in January 2020, this project utilised a range of techniques to highlight the impacts and local experiences of climate change at five cultural World Heritage Sites in Bangladesh, Peru, Rapa Nui, Scotland and Tanzania. All five sites are experiencing different climate change impacts and each has been responding and adapting to these challenges in unique and locally appropriate ways. The project illustrates both the value of collaboration between different organisations, and the role of this historic environment in climate change communication and public engagement. This paper will introduce the project aims, objectives and methodology with a particular focus on the project review and web analytics for the six-month period following the project launch. Results suggest global meaningful engagement with some considerable gaps especially in low and middle-income countries. It concludes by exploring some useful lessons for future digital projects, exploring ways to increase geographical reach and improve viewer engagement, and to ensure more equitable collaborations with partner sites and countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Glacier surges are cyclic oscillations of velocity and mass resulting from internal dynamic instabilities. For surge-type glaciers, cycles of advance and retreat are decoupled from climate forcing, so it is important to consider the possibility that former glaciers may have been surge-type when making climatic inferences from their dimensions and chronologies. In this paper, climatic and glacier geometric data are used to show that Scotland was likely the location of a surge cluster during the Loch Lomond Stade (∼12.9–11.7 ka), with high probabilities of surging for outlets of the West Highland Icefield and the larger glaciers in the Inner Hebrides and Northern Highlands. Terrestrial and marine landforms consistent with surging occur in all of these areas, and it is proposed that surge-type glaciers existed on the Islands of Skye and Mull, in the Northern Highlands, and in a 'surging arc' along the western, southern and south-eastern margins of the West Highland Icefield. The possibility that surge-type glaciers were widespread in Scotland during the Loch Lomond Stade offers a fresh perspective on some long-standing issues, including the relationship between style of deglaciation and climate change, the climatic significance of glacial chronologies, palaeoclimatic reconstructions, and the interpretation of numerical model results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Collections care in temperate zones of the world, including Scotland, is generally well served by a system of heating control known as conservation heating or humidistat-controlled heating. This system adjusts temperature in a building in order to maintain relative humidity at desired levels. An alternative control method is through the use of dehumidification, although airtightness of the building influences the effectiveness of this. This paper assesses three sites where these methods of control have been used: the Great Hall at Edinburgh Castle, Abbots House at Arbroath Abbey in eastern Scotland and Skelmorlie Aisle in western Scotland. The benefits of each system are discussed, together with consideration of the effect of climate change on the efficacy of each. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is threatening an uncalculated number of archaeological sites globally, totaling perhaps hundreds of thousands of culturally and paleoenvironmentally significant resources. As with all archaeological sites, they provide evidence of humanity's past and help us understand our place in the present world. Coastal sites, clustered at the water's edge, are already experiencing some of the most dramatic damage due to anthropogenic climate change, and the situation is predicted to worsen in the future. In the face of catastrophic loss, organizations around the world are developing new ways of working with this threatened coastal resource. This paper uses three examples from Scotland, Florida, and Maine to highlight how new partnerships and citizen science approaches are building communities of practice to better manage threatened coastal heritage. It compares methods on either side of the Atlantic and highlights challenges and solutions. The approaches are applicable to the increasing number of heritage sites everywhere at risk from climate change; the study of coastal sites thus helps society prepare for climate change impacts to heritage worldwide. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Younger Dryas ice‐marginal ('hummocky') moraines in Scotland represent valuable terrestrial archives that can be used to obtain important information on ice‐marginal dynamics and glacier thermal regimes during a period of rapid climatic change. In this paper, we present detailed sedimentological studies of Younger Dryas ice‐marginal moraines in the Gaick, central Scotland, the former site of a spatially restricted plateau icefield. Exposures demonstrate that moraines in the Gaick represent terrestrial ice‐contact fans, with evidence of proglacial and subglacial glaciotectonization, as reported elsewhere in Scotland. The exposures also reveal the influence of local hydrogeological conditions, with pressurization of the groundwater system leading to the formation of hydrofracture fills within some moraines. Clast shape analysis shows that all the moraines contain debris consistent with transport in the subglacial traction zone. The sedimentological data, and the planform arrangement of the moraines as nested arcs or chevrons, indicate that retreat of the Younger Dryas Gaick Icefield outlets was incremental and oscillatory. This evidence strongly suggests a mainly temperate thermal regime and short glacier response times, but with narrow cold‐ice zones near the margins facilitating the elevation of basal debris to the glacier surface. Analogous glaciodynamic regimes occur at modern ice‐cap and plateau icefield outlets in Iceland and Norway, although there are significant differences in the nature of ice‐marginal deposition. The glaciodynamic signature recorded by moraines in the Gaick has allowed us to shed new light on the ice‐marginal dynamics and thermal regime of one of the most easterly Younger Dryas icefields in Scotland. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The concept of resilience is now routinely put forward by both policymakers and social activists as a way for communities to use and develop their resources and respond positively to change, including decarbonization to address climate change. The extent to which a community is able to utilize all its resources depends on the extent to which it feels empowered to take action and is a major determinant of its resilience. A narrative of community empowerment has recently emerged from Scottish Government, driven in part by the situation in Scotland, in which a skewed pattern of landownership and distant structure of 'local' democracy combine to disempower communities by disconnecting them from local resources and local representative democracy. Recent Scottish legislation appears to provide new opportunities for community groups to gain control of local assets, become more financially sustainable, undertake climate-related mitigation actions and overcome some of the current local democratic deficit. At the same time, an increasingly well-organized and networked community sector and some within the Scottish Government are actively exploring new ways to enable public participation and deliver public services. This paper analyses the current Scottish policy framework and aspirations for community empowerment and, through interviews with stakeholders, assesses the potential, this may provide for communities to become truly resilient and to actively engage with transformational change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Impact and uncertainty framework for the identification of compound hydro-hazards. • UK example application using EDgE RCP8.5 projections. • NE Scotland and SW UK identified as spatio-temporally compound hotspot regions. • Hydrological models identified as the largest source of variability. • Raises questions regarding spatial variability of hydroclimatological modelling uncertainty. There exists an increasing need to understand the impact of climate change on the hydrological extremes of flood and drought, collectively referred to as 'hydro-hazards'. At present, current methodology are limited in their scope, particularly with respect to inadequate representation of the uncertainty in the hydroclimatological modelling chain. This paper proposes spatially consistent comprehensive impact and uncertainty methodological framework for the identification of compound hydro-hazard hotspots – hotspots of change where concurrent increase in mean annual flood and drought events is projected. We apply a quasi-ergodic analysis of variance (QE-ANOVA) framework, to detail both the magnitude and the sources of uncertainty in the modelling chain for the mean projected mean change signal whilst accounting for non-stationarity. The framework is designed for application across a wide geographical range and is thus readily transferable. We illustrate the ability of the framework through application to 239 UK catchments based on hydroclimatological projections from the EDgE project (5 CMI5-GCMs and 3 HMs, forced under RCP8.5). The results indicate that half of the projected hotspots are temporally concurrent or temporally successive within the year, exacerbating potential impacts on society. The north-east of Scotland and south-west of the UK were identified as spatio-temporally compound hotspot regions and are of particular concern. This intensification of the hydrologic dynamic (timing and seasonality of hydro-hazards) over a limited time frame represents a major challenge for future water management. Hydrological models were identified as the largest source of variability, in some instances exceeding 80% of the total variance. Critically, clear spatial variability in the sources of modelling uncertainty was also observed; highlighting the need to apply a spatially consistent methodology, such as that presented. This application raises important questions regarding the spatial variability of hydroclimatological modelling uncertainty. In terms of water management planning, such findings allow for more focussed studies with a view to improving the projections which inform the adaptation process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper addresses the use of impact indicators with respect to climate change in the 2007–2013 Rural Development Programme (RDP) of the European Union, with particular reference to the Scotland Rural Development Programme (SRDP). It concludes that the policy context has highlighted the need for the rural land use sector to respond to climate change but that the associated Common Monitoring and Evaluation Framework (CMEF) did not develop suitable indicators to assess the impact of SDRP measures on GHG emission mitigation. It suggests improved impact indicators based on the relationship between rural land use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions: first, an indicator based on net GHG emissions per holding; and a second based on net GHG emissions per unit volume of output. The paper points out the challenges in measuring land-based emissions accurately. It further proposes screening of RDP measures to ensure that climate change mitigation impacts are properly appraised. It is recognised that climate change policy in relation to rural land use is still at an early stage of development but greater sophistication of policy instrument design and evaluation will be required if the RDP is to contribute significantly to climate change policy objectives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the once ubiquitous vernacular earth-built structures of Scotland and how perceptions of such buildings were shaped and developed through periods of intense cultural and environmental change. We focus upon the past exploitation of traditional resources to construct vernacular architectures and on changes in the perception of the resultant buildings. Historic earth-built structures are today deeply hidden within the landscapes of Scotland, although they were once a common feature of both urban and rural settlements. Whilst the eighteenth and nineteenth century period of Improvement - during which many of these structures were destroyed, repurposed, or left to decay - has received extensive attention by historians, there exists no previous serious study of the human and environmental dimensions. Through analysis of the material aspects of landscape resource use and analysis of the historical perceptions of such use, we emphasize the national significance of this undervalued aspect of Scotland's built and cultural heritage, increasingly at risk of being lost completely, highlighting the prior ubiquity of mudwall structures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The negative impacts of climate change for the ski industry have been well documented. However, research has largely focused on key ski markets in North America and Continental Europe. The study presented in this paper addresses climate change perceptions and responses in the more marginal ski destination of Scotland. Using a qualitative, interpretivist methodology, this paper contributes through a local-scale, single-site study of a ski area where technical adaptations are not utilised and which therefore relies on business responses to climate change. Findings suggest that while local weather is perceived to be a large and unmanageable risk to the industry, and a downward trend is identified in terms of snow reliability, these risks are not perceived to be connected to the wider anthropogenic climate change discourse. Waiting for knowledge to increase before taking adaptive action appears to be the most popular business strategy; however, autonomous adaptation is taking place in the form of business diversification, which mitigates against risks including, but not limited to, climate change. This paper concludes that experiences and perceptions of climate change will be highly localised and as a result so too will adaptive behaviours. Marginal ski destinations such as Scotland will be facing a range of non-climatic impacts which will contribute to their contextual vulnerability to climate change and capacity to adapt. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The paper discusses the development of economic techniques for dealing with uncertainties in economic analysis of planting trees to mitigate climatic change. In consideration of uncertainty, time preference and intergenerational equity, the traditional cost-benefit analysis framework is challenged with regard to the discounting/non-discounting of carbon uptake benefits, and because it usually uses a constant and positive discount rate. We investigate the influence of various discounting protocols on the outputs of economic analysis. The idea of using the declining discount rate is also considered. Several numerical examples dealing with the analysis of afforestation for carbon sequestration in Scotland and Ukraine are provided. We show that the choice of discounting protocols have a considerable influence on the results of economic analysis, and therefore, on the decision-making processes related to climate change mitigation strategies. The paper concludes with some innovative insights on accounting for uncertainties and time preference in tackling climate change through forestry, several climate policy implications of dealing with uncertainties, and a brief discussion of what the use of different discounting protocols might imply for decision making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To promote the transition towards a low carbon economy, the Scottish Government has adopted ambitious energy-related targets, including generating all electricity from renewable sources by 2020. To achieve this, continued investment will be required across a range of sustainable technologies. Hydropower has a long history in Scotland and the present-day operational capacity of ~1.5 GW already makes a substantial contribution to the national energy budget. In addition, there remains potential for ~500 MW of further development, mostly in the form of small to medium size run-of-river schemes. Climate change is expected to lead to an intensification of the global hydrological cycle, leading to changes in both the magnitude and seasonality of river flows. There may also be indirect effects on water flows, such as changing land use, enhanced evapotranspiration rates and an increased demand for irrigation, all of which could affect the water available for energy generation. In this paper we describe Scotland׳s currently installed hydropower capacity and present a review of the scope for future development. We also review the potential impacts of climate change, highlighting possible adaptation measures as well as key factors likely to determine financial viability over the coming decades. We present a summary of the present state of knowledge regarding the resilience of Scotland׳s hydropower resource to a changing climate, and identify key areas where further research is required. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Scottish Government is committed to carbon reduction targets which are the most ambitious across the devolved administrations of the UK. Whilst Scotland operates within broader international and UK policy contexts, it has developed particular programmes and approaches to engage communities in the transition towards low-carbon futures. Rural areas have a role in the transition to a low-carbon Scotland; however, beyond land use and agriculture contributions, little research has explored the “rural” dimension of “low-carbon” transitions. The paper presents a policy and literature review relating to the low-carbon agenda in Scotland. It reflects on Scottish low-carbon policy and governance, the positioning of “rural communities” within this, and the opportunities and challenges this might present. Based on this, we develop an understanding of how rural communities may contribute to a low-carbon Scotland and identify a future research agenda to explore in more detail the nature and relative effectiveness of diverse governance structures to support this. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This paper analyses the temporal and spatial changes in the amount and variability of rainfall in Scotland. The sequential Mann-Kendall test reveals that total annual precipitation has increased across Scotland since the 1970s with increasing trends in variability beginning between the mid-1960s and the mid-1970s. Whilst temporally consistent increasing trends in precipitation totals prevail in the West, many weather stations in the East have experienced subsequent trend turning points in the following two decades, explaining the larger magnitude of the trends in western Scotland in recent decades. Trend analyses on six measures of rainfall variability indicate an increase in rainfall variability during the period 1961-2000, as measured by the intra-annual variance, the winter to summer precipitation ratio and the annual cumulative sum range, with decreasing trends observed in the number of dry days. Periodicities associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation could explain the observed temporal variability of rainfall. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An introduction to the journal is presented on various papers within the issue on topics including climate change fund policy in Scotland, construction of wind farm and rationalizations of the response of stakeholders to developments in Germany and Scotland.

Despite the fact that mainstreaming of climate change into existing EU sectoral policies is a key aim, empirical knowledge of how it works in practice remains scarce. With this paper we explore the degree to which climate considerations are taken into account in the implementation of one of the most influential pieces of European water legislation, the Water Framework Directive and, more importantly, we assess possible explanations for the geographical variability in levels of mainstreaming observed. Our empirical research is based on an analysis of both EU and local policy documents, as well as more than forty in-depth interviews, and shows that, for various reasons, the degree of mainstreaming that has taken place differs widely. We conclude that timely incentives and clear guidance will be necessary to ensure progress is made by all, but that a residual fear that the adaptation agenda is open to abuse by those seeking to rationalise failures to fully implement the Water Framework Directive has put a brake on the mainstreaming agenda. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: There is a current need to develop annual/decadal chronologies from periods of rapid climate change in order to understand the rate and timing of climate events and identify how other proxies either lead or lag this climate forcing. Annually-laminated or varved sediments are key proxies for understanding environmental change at such a scale. This paper presents the results of microscale analysis of glaciolacustrine varve sediments from Scotland and develops a new index called varve group, which ranks the number of pulses of sediment observed in the summer component of the varve. The varve group index is compared with data from the Greenland ice-core record and correspondence can be observed between the oxygen isotope records from Greenland during the latter part of GS-1 and the 515-year Lochaber varve group index. The processes that control the number of sediment pulses into the lake basin are discussed and we examine how these factors might control both the isotopic composition of the ice cores and varve group formation. It is proposed that the position of the sea ice in the North Atlantic may provide such a mechanism. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Loch Leven is a large, shallow lake in lowland Scotland, UK. Scientific research began here almost 200 years ago. Early research characterised the biodiversity and physical characteristics of the loch, providing an important historical background for future research. In the mid-1960s, this ad hoc approach was superseded by a more structured research programme under the umbrella of the International Biological Programme. This was the beginning of the Loch Leven long-term monitoring programme. Today, the results of these studies form one of the longest and most comprehensive limnological datasets for shallow freshwater lakes in the world, comprising more than 500 physical, chemical and biological variables collected at two-weekly intervals. To celebrate the 40th anniversary of the start of the long term monitoring programme, and to highlight the scientific investigations still being conducted at Loch Leven, the NERC Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (CEH) organised a symposium entitled "Loch Leven: 40 years of scientific research" in Kinross, Scotland, UK, on 11 December 2008. This examined the role of long-term monitoring in developing our understanding of the links between pollution, climate change and ecological responses in shallow lakes. This article introduces a series of papers summarising the scientific results presented at this meeting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Certain marginal marine environments, such as the Scottish fjord systems, contain high-resolution records of palaeoclimatic change in which decadal to centennial climatic events can be resolved. This paper explores the possibilities of using tephrochronology to stratigraphically constrain the timing of such events in the Loch Sunart record (MD04-2831) on the NW coast of Scotland (UK). One tephra horizon (containing both silicic and basaltic shards) is identified within Late Holocene sediment with geochemical analyses of the basaltic shards suggesting an origin in the Veidivötn-Bárðarbunga volcanic system. Radiocarbon age estimates and stratigraphic information suggests that the AD 871 Landnám tephra is the most likely candidate. The shards identified within this horizon appear hydrated and indicate the operation of post-depositional weathering processes possibly influenced by the saline conditions of the fjord environment. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper presents a study to partition the role of three regional-scale drivers - woodland extent and continuity, pollution regime, and climatic setting - in explaining the composition and richness of lichen epiphytes in Scotland. To do this we used partial canonical correspondence analysis and multiple least squares regression, to examine lichen communities across 170 study sites. First, our results demonstrate the importance of climate in explaining species composition. This highlights the relatively clean-air environment of Scotland within a European setting, and emphasizes the important consideration of regional context in the development of bioclimatic species-response models. This result contrasts with a previous similar study which collapsed complex environmental data into summary gradients, and which therefore discounted climate as a key factor. Second, we show a functional decoupling between composition and species richness, which was optimally explained by old-growth woodland extent and pollution, and only weakly explained by climate. The difference in explanatory variables between composition and richness is a focal issue in determining the processes by which species compositional change, driven by rapid and deep climate change, may indirectly impact species richness. For example, this impact may occur through an imbalance in rates of species extinction (for sensitive range-edge species) and establishment in a fragmented landscape (for dispersal-limited colonists), though operating against the 'stabilizing effect' of microclimatic setting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper describes potential methods for reconstructing past marine environmental and climatic variability in Scottish coastal waters through the investigation of annual growth increments measured from shells of the long-lived marine bivalve Arctica islandica (L.). This is accomplished by using a combination of sclerochronological and dendrochronological techniques which were employed to determine the age of specimens and to create growth chronologies. Using negative exponential detrending methods, a preliminary A. islandica master chronology for the Lynn of Lorn, Scotland has been produced. This chronology indicates highly suppressed growth between the mid 1940s and late 1980s. The growth response of this species to the sea surface temperatures in Scottish coastal waters appears to be complex, most notably during recent decades when land-use changes and marine aquaculture may influence shell growth at this site. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: We summarise the results of a range of sediment-based studies at Lochan Uaine, a remote corrie lake in the heart of the Cairngorm massif in Scotland. The site lies above the Holocene forest limit and has been minimally affected by human activities. The results presented are mainly based on magnetic measurements, element analysis, granulometry, organic geochemical analysis and pollen analysis carried out over a period of some 15 years. The magnetic properties and element concentrations record a coherent sequence of changes reflecting mainly stages in catchment erosion. In terms of the chronology developed for the sedimentary record from the site, increases in allochthonous, minerogenic sediment delivery to the lake occurred around 1000 BC, AD 330–480 and AD 1260–1410. The only notable change in the pollen diagram records a period of deforestation at lower altitude predating the last of the periods of increased erosion. The organic geochemistry analyses record a series of higher frequency responses in the aquatic ecosystem, already noted in previous papers, e.g. . These include fluctuations in organic carbon content and in the concentrations of biomarkers indicative of changing lake productivity. Both the terrestrial and aquatic ecosystem responses are superimposed on a longer-term trend of declining aquatic productivity, progressive catchment weathering and increasing erosion. The sediments of Lochan Uaine thus appear to have recorded complex system responses on three timescales reflecting (a) the long term decline in northern hemisphere insolation during the Holocene, (b) the millennial scale forcing of the kind found in many other mid-late Holocene records and (c) much shorter term, quasi-cyclic but clearly a-periodic sub-millennial fluctuations. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Wind power is seen by many as a key industry for the future: an environmentally benign renewable energy to replace fossil fuels. The Northern and Western Isles, with their high average wind speeds, would seem to be well placed to exploit this rapidly emerging demand. As well as meeting a global need, to reduce output of greenhouse gases and a national need for security of supply into the twenty-first century, wind power promises an economic future for rural regions whose prospects are otherwise uncertain. However, this benign scenario is marred by potentially serious negative consequences for local environmental systems, landscape aesthetics and archaeology, which are themselves often of national and international importance. With particular reference to proposed projects in Lewis and Shetland, this paper will consider the competing demands from national and local policy on the location of wind farms, and weaknesses in the current planning process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent dry years (combined dry winter and summer months) within the UK (2005 and 2006) have enhanced concerns relating to long term water resources and future water provision in large conurbations. This paper examines the mechanisms responsible for precipitation variability for five different areas in Edinburgh (precipitation regions) using composite historic precipitation records for the period 1861–2005. Trend analysis and principal component analysis (PCA) were undertaken to examine precipitation variability over time and space. Annual correlation co-efficients were derived for relationships between precipitation areas, atmospheric–oceanographic variations and geographic parameters. Stepwise regression models were constructed to specify annual precipitation, through atmospheric variations, for each of the precipitation areas. Significant downward trends in precipitation ( p < 0.05) were noted in two out of the five precipitation areas, with one principal component representing precipitation variability over Edinburgh and the Pentland Hills. Precipitation variability is best explained by fluctuations in pressure, altitude and proximity to coast. Precipitation trends cannot be explained by changes in atmospheric circulation patterns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The application of a variety of reservoir yield estimation methods is described against the background of a review of yield in Scotland. The study is timely, both in the context of the possible effects of climate change, the institutional re-organisation of the water industry world-wide—but originating largely from the UK—and the emerging issues of sustainability and the shift from supply to demand side management. To set the paper in context, the study was undertaken just prior to the transfer of responsibility for water supply from regional councils to new water authorities in 1996, and following the quinquennial Scottish Office Environment Department''s survey of water resources in 1994. A comparative review of assessment methods was undertaken in order to recommend a flexible and consistent approach for single sources, but with a view to extending this to conjunctive schemes. A case study of Loch Bradan showed that the derivation of the inflow record and definition of the catchment boundary are at least as important as the yield assessment method itself. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Peatlands cover approximately 14% of Scotland, although only part of this area is active (peat-forming) mire. Mires are important for the biodiversity of the specialist plant and animal communities they support. Study of mire ecosystems has revealed intimate relationships between their organic components and water, which mean that it is impossible to understand their ecology without considering hydrology. Whilst ecohydrological studies have concentrated on the internal functioning of mires, the insights gained are relevant to runoff generation in peat-covered river catchments. This paper reviews our knowledge of processes occurring in mires and relates these to wider catchment hydrology, on the basis of published information and recent research in Scotland. The influence of different types of land management is considered, and it emerges that mire is most effective in delaying storm run-off, in preventing soil erosion and in retaining inorganic nutrients when it is undrained; although there can be adverse effects on water quality under certain conditions. In the context of global warming, mire ecosystems are sensitive but at the same time robust to climate change, and thus contain archives of climatic data for the Holocene. Moreover, peatlands store significant quantities of carbon, and influence directly the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Various issues related to conservation and restoration of peatland biodiversity have been addressed constructively in recent decades, although approaches and objectives are not always consistent between sites. These are reviewed, and some outstanding issues and research needs are identified. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The recent increased variability of Scotland''s hydroclimate poses major problems for water resource managers charged with making informed investment decisions given the likely impact of future climate change. Two strategies are developed in this paper to assist managers faced with this environmental uncertainty. The first involves trend analysis of precipitation and runoff since the 1960s and 1970s viewed against longer-term variability reported from instrumental records. The second strategy is based upon current climate change scenarios coupled with GCMs, and downscaling of precipitation and temperature to provide inputs to rainfall-runoff models. The long-term records of precipitation (back to the 1860s) and runoff (back to the 1930s) reveal the late 1980s and early 1990s as the wettest period on record for the west but not for the east. Over the period 1961–1996 the precipitation gradient has intensified across Scotland: wetter west; relatively dry east. Changes in runoff over the period 1970–1996 are also reported with increases in annual flows at 33 out of 38 stations (significantly at 12 stations) and decreases in low flows at 21 out of 38 stations (significantly at one station). The bulk of these flow increases occurred in the south and west especially in the autumn and spring. In terms of high flows over the period 1970–1996, four out of 44 stations reported a change in magnitude and 15 reported an increase in the frequency of POT events. In terms of future climate change, predict annual precipitation increases of 6–16% (Scotland) and 6–14% (Scottish Borders) from the 2020s to the 2080s based on the Hadley Centre model (HadCM2) medium–high scenario. Seasonal changes are concentrated in the autumn (SON) and winter (DJF) with increases as high as 24 and 29% for the autumn by the 2080s. (, et al. Institute of Hydrology Report No. 107, Wallingford, 1996), using an earlier transient Hadley experiment (IS92a), predict a 5–15% increase in annual runoff across Scotland by the 2050s, locally rising to 25%. Simulation flow duration curves for the 2050s generate Q95 values up by 5% or less (Rivers Don, Almond and Nith) and Q5 up by 10–24% (Rivers Don, Almond, Nith and Lyne Water). In terms of water resource planning, these predicted changes should be regarded as first order approximations, as they take no account of natural climatic variability, and could generate different absolute values if other scenarios were used. The predictions are, however, broadly consistent with trends in precipitation and runoff for Scotland since the 1970s. Major issues of concern to water resource managers are identified and commented upon in the light of these predictions. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

With evidence suggesting that climate change is resulting in changes within the hydrologic cycle, the ability to robustly model hydroclimatic response is critical. This paper assesses how extreme runoff—1:2- and 1:30-year return period (RP) events—may change at a regional level across the UK by the 2080s (2069–2098). Capturing uncertainty in the hydroclimatic modelling chain, flow projections were extracted from the EDgE (End-to-end Demonstrator for improved decision-making in the water sector in Europe) multi-model ensemble: five Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) General Circulation Models and four hydrological models forced under emissions scenarios Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and RCP 8.5 (5 × 4 × 2 chains). Uncertainty in extreme value parameterisation was captured through consideration of two methods: generalised extreme value (GEV) and generalised logistic (GL). The method was applied across 192 catchments and aggregated to eight regions. The results suggest that, by the 2080s, many regions could experience large increases in extreme runoff, with a maximum mean change signal of +34% exhibited in East Scotland (1:2-year RP). Combined with increasing urbanisation, these estimates paint a concerning picture for the future UK flood landscape. Model chain uncertainty was found to increase by the 2080s, though extreme value (EV) parameter uncertainty becomes dominant at the 1:30-year RP (exceeding 60% in some regions), highlighting the importance of capturing both the associated EV parameter and ensemble uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We begin our April issue with a paper describing the developments and effects of storm ‘Katie’, which brought significant effects to the United Kingdom on Easter Monday, 2015. In ‘Storm Katie – Rapid cyclogenesis and damaging winds of Easter Monday 2016’ on p. 103, Steven Ramsdale and Jason Kelly describe the meteorological developments that developed this low‐pressure system, the uncertainties associated with its development, the warnings issued and the damage caused, in part limited by its presence on a Bank Holiday. On p. 109, Colin Clark describes a flood 112 years ago in ‘The storm and flood of 13 May 1906 at Mells, Somerset, UK’ Dr Clark discusses the significance of the flood and its possible return period using synoptic charts of the time and descriptions published in local newspapers immediately following the event, emphasising our need to know more about floods in history. One of the least explored parts of the Middle East is the Empty Quarter. In the 1940s and 50s, the English explorer and writer Wilfred Thesiger crossed this area of extreme aridity. His discoveries and travels are described by Michael de Villiers in ‘Thesiger's weather in the Arabian Peninsula’ on p. 120. On p. 123, we present Iain Cameron and Adam Watson's annual review of the survival of snow on Scottish mountains. The overall warmth of last year is reflected in this year's title: ‘No Scottish snow patches survive until winter 2017/2018’. Weather and climate have a significant effect on human life and this journal often describes significant weather events, especially those that have affected Britain. But the local variability of weather may arguably present a more significant effect – not least, in the Developing World. Many factors affect school attendance, but weather and climate, including drought, rainstorms and dust pose important challenges, sometimes because of the secondary effects. Joseph Adejuwon discusses these effects in the Sahel zone in ‘Climate variability and the dichotomy in male–female school attendance: a case study of Zamfara State in semi‐arid Nigeria’ on p. 125. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]