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Stimulated by the recent advances in computational tools for the simulation of seismic wave propagation problems in realistic geological configurations, this paper presents a 3D physicsbased numerical analysis of near-source ground motion during the MW 6.0 2012 May 29 earthquake in the Po Plain, Northern Italy. To reproduce with sufficient accuracy some of the most peculiar features of the near-source strong-motion records and of the spatial variability of damage distribution, this study required a sequence of investigations, starting from the analysis of a wide set of near-source records, to the calibration of an improved kinematic seismic source model, up to the development of a 3D numerical model of the portion of the Po Plain interested by the earthquake. The latter includes the basin geometry, characterized by sediment thickness sharply varying from few tens of metres to some kilometres. The spatial resolution of the numerical model is suitable to propagate frequencies up to about 1.5 Hz. Numerical simulations were performed using the open-source high-performance code SPEED, based on the Discontinuous Galerkin Spectral Elements method. The 3D numerical model, coupled with the updated slip distribution along the rupturing fault, proved successful to reproduce with good agreement, measured through quantitative goodness-of-fit criteria, the most relevant features of the observed ground motion. These include: (i) the large fault normal velocity peaks at the near-source stations driven by updip directivity effects; (ii) the small-scale variability at short distance from the source, resulting in the out-of-phase motion at stations separated by only 3 km distance; (iii) the propagation of prominent trains of surface waves, especially in the Northern direction; (iv) the map of earthquake-induced ground uplift with maximum values of about 10 cm, in substantial agreement with geodetic measurements and (v) the two-lobed pattern of the peak ground velocity map, well correlated with the distribution of macroseismic intensity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: An unusually intense subsynoptic-scale cyclone has been documented in southeastern Italy on 26 September 2006. Numerical simulations are performed with the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF). Model results show that the model is able to realistically capture the timing and intensity of the cyclone, identifying in this small-scale cyclone the typical characteristics of a Mediterranean tropical-like cyclone. Sensitivity experiments to sea surface temperature (SST) of the simulated cyclone are discussed in the present paper. In these experiments the SST was changed by a constant few degrees uniformly throughout the Mediterranean Sea. The simulated-cyclone sensitivity to SST is studied in the framework of an air–sea interaction theory, in particular during the two phases that are fundamental for the development of an environment favorable to severe convection and thus for the cyclone to be self-sustained. The modifications of the properties of the simulated cyclones are then analyzed using an objective evaluation, based on a phase diagram used to study the tropical–extratropical transition of cyclones. The present simulations show that the features typical of a tropical cyclone are progressively lost as the SST is reduced. In the colder SST experiments, the lower intensity of the sea-surface fluxes has the effect of delaying and reducing the development of convection and the intensification of the cyclone, so that the cyclone loses the characteristics of a tropical cyclone when SST is reduced by more than 4°C. On the other hand, the cyclone shows a pressure minimum deeper than the control run, with a persistent symmetric warm core, for SST increased by more than 2°C. Finally, when SST is changed by less than 2°C, the cyclone depth and trajectory are not significantly affected by the change in SST and, like the control run, show tropical-like features only for a limited period. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]