1. Demographics and Electoral Volatility.
- Author
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Ferree, Karen
- Subjects
- *
DEMOGRAPHIC surveys , *ETHNIC groups , *ELECTIONS , *COALITIONS - Abstract
This paper explores the relationship between ethnic demographics and electoral volatility in recent elections in Africa. It considers the hypothesis that ethnic configurations that produce a single winning coalition are more likely to produce stable electoral outcomes than configurations that produce multiple or zero winning coalitions. It also explores how different ways of counting potential coalitions ? ways that correspond to varying degrees of restriction on the fluidity of ethnic ?dance partners? ? relate to volatility. The results presented here suggest that ethnic structure does have a systematic relationship to electoral volatility: countries with a single winning coalition of ethnic groups tend to be less volatile than countries with multiple winning coalitions or none at all. However, this relationship is sensitive to the types of restrictions placed on groups that can form coalitions: while some fluidity is apparent, not all possible ethnic coalitions appear to matter in explaining volatility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2004
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