Search

The evolution of several physical and biological systems, ranging from neutron transport in multiplying media to epidemics or population dynamics, can be described in terms of branching exponential flights, a stochastic process which couples a Galton-Watson birth-death mechanism with random spatial displacements. Within this context, one is often called to assess the length …V that the process travels in a given region V of the phase space, or the number of visits nV to this same region. In this paper, we address this issue by resorting to the Feynman-Kac formalism, which allows characterizing the full distribution of …V and nV and in particular deriving explicit moment formulas. Some other significant physical observables associated to … V and nV, such as the survival probability, are discussed as well, and results are illustrated by revisiting the classical example of the rod model in nuclear reactor physics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Chagas disease is a major parasitic disease in Latin America, prevented in part by vector control programs that reduce domestic populations of triatomines. However, the design of control strategies adapted to non-domiciliated vectors, such as Triatoma dimidiata, remains a challenge because it requires an accurate description of their spatio-temporal distributions, and a proper understanding of the underlying dispersal processes. Methodology/Principal Findings: We combined extensive spatio-temporal data sets describing house infestation dynamics by T. dimidiata within a village, and spatially explicit population dynamics models in a selection model approach. Several models were implemented to provide theoretical predictions under different hypotheses on the origin of the dispersers and their dispersal characteristics, which we compared with the spatio-temporal pattern of infestation observed in the field. The best models fitted the dynamic of infestation described by a one year time-series, and also predicted with a very good accuracy the infestation process observed during a second replicate one year time-series. The parameterized models gave key insights into the dispersal of these vectors. i) About 55% of the triatomines infesting houses came from the peridomestic habitat, the rest corresponding to immigration from the sylvatic habitat, ii) dispersing triatomines were 5-15 times more attracted by houses than by peridomestic area, and iii) the moving individuals spread on average over rather small distances, typically 40-60 m/15 days. Conclusion/Significance: Since these dispersal characteristics are associated with much higher abundance of insects in the periphery of the village, we discuss the possibility that spatially targeted interventions allow for optimizing the efficacy of vector control activities within villages. Such optimization could prove very useful in the context of limited resources devoted to vector control. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective Chagas disease is a major vector-borne parasitic disease in Latin America, primarily transmitted to humans by triatomine vectors. Non-domiciliated triatomine species such as Triatoma dimidiata in the Yucatan peninsula, Mexico, can transiently invade houses and are emerging as a major challenge to control Trypanosoma cruzi transmission to humans. We analyzed the spatio-temporal spreading of house infestation by T. dimidiata in four rural villages. Methods Triatomines were collected in four rural villages over a 2 years period, and the spatio-temporal patterns of infestation were analyzed. Results Triatomines were consistently more abundant at the periphery of villages than in centers, indicating a much higher risk of T. cruzi transmission at the periphery. Male T. dimidiata were found further in the center of the village, while females remained closer to the periphery, suggesting differential dispersal capabilities between sexes, although the timing of dispersal appeared identical. Surprisingly, infected females were consistently collected in houses much further from the surrounding bushes than non-infected females, while the distribution of males was unaffected by their T. cruzi infection status, suggesting an increased dispersal capability in infected females. Conclusion The spatial structure of infestation should be taken into account for the prioritization of vector control activities within villages, and spatially targeted interventions may be explored. A potential vector manipulation by T. cruzi, observed for the first time in triatomines, may favor parasite transmission to new hosts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]