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While the economy and society of China are developing rapidly, various ecological and environmental problems continue to emerge. The problem of air pollution is becoming an issue of increasing concern. Since 2013, Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei Provinces have collaborated to control air pollution and have achieved certain success. However, the air pollution problem in the capital, Beijing, remains severe. In this study, a quantitative evaluation and analysis method is established for assessing urban air quality and its influencing factors by developing a driving force model. The model combines multiple regression and principal component analysis to account for social, economic, meteorological, and regional factors. The influencing factors with the highest contributions are regional transmission, energy consumption, and industrial structure. This model is used to project the future trend of the air quality in Beijing based on the evolution of the influencing factors, aimed to provide a theoretical basis for policies improving Beijing's air quality. • A driving force model of the air quality in Beijing is established. • Factors influencing the annual air quality and their contributions are determined. • Future trends in air quality in different scenarios are explored. • Practical policy implications are proposed based on factor and trend analyses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]