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The historic, classical thermodynamic model of star interiors neglects luminosity (L), and consequently predicts ultrahigh central solar temperatures (T - 15 x 106 K). Modern models yield similar T profiles mostly because local thermal equilibrium and multiple free parameters are used. Instead, long-term stability of stars signifies disequilibrium where energy generated equals energy emitted. We assume that heat is generated in a shell defining the core and use Fourier's model, which describes diffusion of heat, including via radiation. to predict the T profile. Under steadystate, power L transmitted through each shell is constant above the zone of energy generation. Hence, L is independent of spherical radius (s), so the Stefan-Boltzmann law dictates T(s), and material properties are irrelevant. Temperature is constant in the core and proportional to Dtr-1/2 above. A point source core sets the upper limit on T(s). giving Taverage = (6/5) 1 451 r| ace• Core size or convecting regions little affect our results. We also construct a parameter-free model for interior pressure (P) and density (p) by inserting our T(s) formula into an ideal gas law (P/poLT) while using the equation for hydrostatic gravitational compression. We find P oc s-·1, p (X s-.5~, and paverage =6x p,uN-ace· Another result, Ln< mass·3·3, agrees with accepted empirical rules for main sequence stars, and validates our model. The total solar mass already "burned" suggests that fusion occurs near L„4400 where P - 0.5 x 1012 Pa, in agreement with H-bomb pressure estimates. Implications are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Kepler's discoveries were permitted by his remarkable insight to place the Sun at the focus of an elliptical planetary orbit. This coordinate system reduces a 2-dimensional orbit to a single spatial dimension. We consider an alternative coordinate system centered on the "image focus," which is the symmetrical (mirror) counterpart of the "real focus" occupied by the Sun. Our analytical approach provides new purely geometric formulae and an exact relationship for the dynamic property of orbital time. In addition, considering the mirror symmetry of the ellipse leads to a simple approximation: the radial hand of an orbital clock rotates counterclockwise at a nearly steady angular velocity 2π/T about the "image focus," where T is the orbital period. This approximation is a useful pedagogic tool and has good accuracy for orbits with low to moderate eccentricities, since the deviation from the exact result goes as eccentricity squared. Planetary comparisons are made. In particular, the angular speeds of Mercury and Jupiter are highly variable in the geocentric and heliocentric reference frames, but are nearly constant in the image focus reference frame. Our findings resolve whether the image focus is the location for observing uniform motion of an elliptical orbit, and pertain to their stability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Conclusions: The mechanism of plate tectonics is affected by many factors which are changing with time. This essay highlights recent discoveries that axial spin has an effect. We ask the geological community to consider the place of planet Earth in the Solar System, and how the orbital forces have changed over the past 4.5 billion years, and if we can find ways to test whether or not these forces are significant, and preserved in the rock record. The final publication is available at Springer via https://doi.org/10.1007/s12583-022-1748-4. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A new, fundamental catchment attribute called the hydrologic time scale τ governs the rate of delivery of runoff to a particular site, and is equal to ∫Qdt/∫∣dQ∣, where Q is discharge and t is time. The value of τ for any gauged site is readily calculated from tabulated discharge data by replacing the integrals with sums. This quantity, coupled with the square root of catchment area, A , form a coordinate pair that embodies the characteristic time and length scales for any catchment, which govern its flow dynamics. The fitting constants used in several unit hydrograph models are simple multiples of τ, so knowledge of τ allows rapid calibration of these models for the particular site, facilitating flow prediction from rainfall data. Values of τ reflect many different landscape attributes, but for multiple sub-basins in watersheds with homogeneous land use and lithologic conditions, they correlate linearly with A . The ratio A / τ provides a characteristic velocity that is high for channelized, flood-prone rivers, for flashy urban streams with high impervious cover, and for sites downstream of hydro-power dams. Sites with low velocities are resistant to flooding, as their landscapes have a greater ability to delay the delivery of runoff by retention, detention, and infiltration into the groundwater system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Monitoring data show that many landslides in the Three Gorges region, China, undergo step-like displacements in response to the managed, quasi-sinusoidal annual variations in reservoir level. This behavior is consistent with motion initiating when the reservoir water level falls below a critical level that is intrinsic to each landslide, with the subsequent displacement rate of the landslide being proportional to the water depth below that critical level. Most motion terminates when the water level rises back above the critical level, so the annual step size is the time integral of the instantaneous displacement rate. These responses are incorporated into a differential equation that is easily calibrated with monitoring data, allowing prediction of landslide movement from actual or anticipated reservoir level changes. Model successes include (1) initiation and termination of the annual sliding steps at the critical reservoir level, producing a series of steps; (2) prediction of variable step size, year to year; and (3) approximate prediction of the shape and size of each annual step. Annual rainfall correlates poorly with step size, probably because its effect on groundwater levels is dwarfed by the 30 m annual variations in the level of the Three Gorges Reservoir. Viscous landslide behavior is suggested. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extensive USGS data tables and detailed, 1 m2 LiDAR surveys are used to determine the optimal power n that relates discharge (Q) to stage (h*) above channel bottom (ho) at 39 gauging stations on small streams in the St. Louis, Missouri area, all of which have catchments of 0.6 to 220 km2. Four different methodologies are employed to determine both n and ho: (1) optimizing linearity in a plot of Q1/nvs. local stage (hL) using USGS field measurements at each site; (2) optimizing linearity in a plot of Q1/nvs. hL using USGS rating tables at each site; (3) a mathematical inverse method applied to the same USGS rating tables; (4) use of LiDAR data on channel geometry to determine the power dependences of channel area A and hydraulic radius H on h*, combined with the Manning and rational equations to predict n. Of these methods, only methods 2 and 3 compare favorably, and these values compare poorly with Method 1 based on field data, and with method 4 based on theoretical and empirical relationships. Because Method 4 is predictive, it provides a useful alternative to methods 1–3 that are based on USGS field measurements, which are heavily weighted toward low discharges. We conclude that the apparent values of n in the USGS rating tables are systematically too low for small streams. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The basis of the famous equation attributed to Maclaurin (1742), which relates the ellipticity of homogeneous spheroids to their rotation rate, is reviewed and Todhunter's (1873) neglected but important contribution is recognized. The relationship is then re-derived in a new manner based on potentials and energy conservation rather than on force balance, yielding exact analytical equations that are valid for both homogeneous objects and inhomogeneous objects with any spheroidal mass distribution. The new equations are applied to the Earth considering three density distributions: the homogeneous case, several two layer models, and an internal density that varies according to the PREM seismic model. Earth's sidereal rotation rate plus the polar and equatorial values of the gravitational acceleration g are all accurately computed from the PREM density distribution, validating the analysis while using no fits, approximations or free parameters. Earth's core must be more spherical than Earth's outer surface. The potentially measurable difference of 0 to 5 km from a congruent core shape is inversely related to the magnitude of core super-rotation, and bears on many additional matters including the core's volume, and the magnitude and direction of its internal and external gravity field. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forces external to the oblate spheroid shape, observed from planetary to galactic scales, are demonstrably non-central, which has important ramifications for planetary science. We simplify historic formulae and derive new analytical solutions for the gravitational potential and force outside a constant density oblate. Numerical calculations that sum point mass contributions in a >10 9 element mesh confirm our equations. We show that contours of constant force and potential about oblate bodies are closely approximated by two confocal families whose foci ( f ) respectively are (9/10) ½ ae and (3/5) ½ ae for a body with f  =  ae . This leads to useful approximations that address internal density variations. We demonstrate that the force on a general point is not directed towards the oblate's center, nor are forces simply proportional to the inverse square of that distance, despite forces in the equatorial and axial directions pointing towards the center. Our results explain complex dynamics of galactic systems. Because most planets and stars have an aspect ratio >0.9, the spherical approximation is reasonable except for orbits within ∼2 body radii. We show that applying the “generalized” potential, which assumes central forces, yields J 2 values half those expected for oblate bodies, and probably underestimates masses of Uranus and Neptune by ∼0.2%. We show that the inner Saturnian moons are subject to non-central forces, which may affect calculations of their orbital precession. Our new series should improve interpretation of flyby data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

High frequency monitoring of water quality and stable isotopes quantify large hydrological and geochemical differences across a rural to urban land use gradient that includes three watersheds and two of their subbasins. Following precipitation events, floods on a rural stream feature hydrographs with low peak discharges and long lag times, high baseflow contributions, and small geochemical variations. In contrast, the flows of an urban stream and its tributary respond in a flashy manner, with average lag times decreasing by at least 55% compared to the rural stream. We also observed that baseflow contributions during floods decreased by an average of 40% in the urban streams. Importantly, we find that reduced baseflow as a function of increasing impervious surface area is not a linear trend among the streams, and suburban streams are less impacted than would be predicted by impervious surface area alone. The urban streams also exhibit large variations in water quality parameters during flooding events, often with five times the variability of the rural end-member. These differences are observed among all physical and geochemical characteristics that were monitored, including flow magnitude, stable isotope ratios, temperature, dissolved oxygen (DO), pH, turbidity, specific conductivity, concentrations of Cl − and nutrients, and bacterial loads. The great variability of urban streams following storms is paralleled by their larger diurnal and seasonal oscillations. Collectively, the extreme variations in the physical and geochemical character of urban streams have negative consequences to environmental quality and aquatic life. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Spiral galaxies are discrete spheroidal objects with highly organized, circular internal motions about a special axis. Available models do not describe these key features or explain why the central regions rotate like a solid body. Practically all previous models describe galaxies as a collection of orbiting test particles, utilize numerous fitting parameters, and require either copious amounts of surrounding dark matter that have not been detected, or modifications to Newton's law, to fit the observed dependence of equatorial velocity on radius. Our paper probes the reasonable alternative that galaxies are discrete, spinning objects. Our analytical forward models, constructed by applying the virial theorem and Newton's law to Maclaurin's spinning spheroids with varying internal density, explain why galactic rotation is organized into this three-dimensional shape. Without invoking dark matter, our spin model explains why the outermost rotational velocities are nearly constant, yet depend on galaxy size, and, with no free parameters, provides masses of 14 important galaxies consistent with their luminosities. We show that proposed modifications to Newton's law compensate for the dynamical differences between a flattened, spinning, Newtonian spheroid, and a collection of orbits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To explore planetary evolution, we provide conductive cooling profiles that account for planet size, phonon diffusivity and various internal heating scenarios. Our new analytical solution for simple cooling of spheres reveals that heat is removed from only Earth's outermost ~1000 km over geological time. Numerical models with decaying heat production show that any upward concentration of radionuclides causes high temperatures at shallow depths, forcing interior temperatures to increase with time while producing a thermal gradient that forbids lower mantle convection. Hence, differentiation drives upper mantle magmatism and tectonics, leaving a quiescent but hot deep interior, while slowly melting the core. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

By exploring diverse simple cases, we show that the virial theorem (VT) of Clausius rests on limits of integration in temporal averages being specified by spatial symmetry, rather than on long durations as heretofore claimed. We show the VT results from linear momentum cancelling in all directions over the restricted space that defines any given bound state, via a balance that involves canonical conjugate pairs of position and momentum; this constraint differs from conservation of energy or momentum. The importance of space is underscored by considering behavior of the ideal gas, which is time-independent. Because each distinct force induces a specific type of motion, which in turn has a characteristic length scale, separate VTs are required for each process, which we confirm by example. Combining unrelated potentials in the VT or in its underlying mathematical identity is invalid because this procedure, used in astrophysics, permits energy exchanges that violate selection rules, symmetry constraints, or thermodynamic law. Our analysis unearths an erroneous numerical factor concerning rotation, helps explain the origin of axial spin in our Solar System, and casts doubt on the historical link of gravitation with temperature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Polytropes are widely applied in astrophysics. To facilitate their use, we derive analytical formulae for the moment of inertia as a function of polytropic index. We also provide 1- and 3-parameter equations that replicate the density variations in polytropic bodies to varying degrees of accuracy, determined by numerical calculations and analytical results for polytropic indices between 0 and 5. As an example, we construct a composite polytrope, suitable for gas giants, exoplanets, or tiny sub-solar dwarfs, wherein an inner sphere is modeled by constant density, which represents the density jump associated with production of a relatively incompressible solid, and an outer envelope is modeled as having a polytropic index near 2.5, which corresponds to a diatomic gas. Envelope sizes are constrained by the moment of inertia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Previous studies attribute abnormal boron (B) levels in streams and groundwaters to wastewater and fertilizer inputs. This study shows that municipal drinking water used for lawn irrigation contributes substantial non-point loads of B and other chemicals (S-species, Li, and Cu) to surface waters and shallow groundwaters in the St. Louis, Missouri, area. Background levels and potential B sources were characterized by analysis of lawn and street runoff, streams, rivers, springs, local rainfall, wastewater influent and effluent, and fertilizers. Urban surface waters and groundwaters are highly enriched in B (to 250μg/L) compared to background levels found in rain and pristine, carbonate-hosted streams and springs (<25μg/L), but have similar concentrations (150 to 259μg/L) compared to municipal drinking waters derived from the Missouri River. Other data including B/SO4 2-−S and B/Li ratios confirm major contributions from this source. Moreover, sequential samples of runoff collected during storms show that B concentrations decrease with increased discharge, proving that elevated B levels are not primarily derived from combined sewer overflows (CSOs) during flooding. Instead, non-point source B exhibits complex behavior depending on land use. In urban settings B is rapidly mobilized from lawns during “first flush” events, likely representing surficial salt residues from drinking water used to irrigate lawns, and is also associated with the baseflow fraction, likely derived from the shallow groundwater reservoir that over time accumulates B from drinking water that percolates into the subsurface. The opposite occurs in small rural watersheds, where B is leached from soils by recent rainfall and covaries with the event water fraction. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Dissolved O2 (DO) and pH data provide a novel, inexpensive field method to detect open cave passages in karst spring systems that can be complemented by laboratory measurements of major elements and nutrients, total suspended solids (TSS), Escherichia coli (E. coli) levels, and stable isotopes. Karst springs in east-central Missouri that have no known air-filled passages (“phreatic” springs) typically have low DO and pH values (<80% saturation and <7.7, respectively), which are characteristic of groundwaters that do not communicate with the atmosphere. In contrast, springs draining vadose cave passages have higher DO and pH values (>60% saturation and >7.7, respectively) that resemble surface waters due to the equilibration of DO with the overlying cave atmosphere and the simultaneous degassing of dissolved CO2. Traverses down phreatic spring branches show exchange with the atmosphere causes an increase in DO only a short distance downstream of the spring orifice, while the pH concurrently increases due to the degassing of CO2. Further downstream both parameters tend to level off reflecting a general approach to equilibrium under surface conditions, though this process is more rapid for DO than for pH. In contrast, the DO and pH along cave spring branches change little from values at the cave entrance. Additionally, (1) degassing processes affect the saturation state of calcite, with cave springs being the most saturated with respect to calcite, (2) phreatic springs typically have lower TSS and E. coli levels than open cave springs due to slower and less variable flow delivery, longer residence times, and less turbulent flow, and (3) phreatic springs tend to plot on the global meteoric water line (MWL), while waters from open cave systems tend to be enriched in 18O and D and can plot below the line due to evaporation and exchange of the water with the overlying cave atmosphere. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Temporal variations in the head of wells in the alluvial aquifer along the lower Missouri River are accurately simulated by summation of linear differential terms involving daily variations in river stage and effective precipitation. Scaling parameters were optimized using a fourth order Adams-Bashforth-Moulton method, providing predictions for head that are typically accurate within ±1.5 feet (0.5 m) over intervals of 1 to 15 years. Parameter magnitudes represent the product of realistic aquifer properties and geometric factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The fundamental and shared rotational characteristics of the Solar System (nearly circular, co-planar orbits and mostly upright axial spins of the planets) record conditions of origin, yet are not explained by prevailing 2-dimensional disk models. Current planetary spin and orbital rotational energies (R.E.) each nearly equal and linearly depend on gravitational self-potential of formation (U g ), revealing mechanical energy conservation. We derive −ΔU g ≅Δ.R.E. and stability criteria from thermodynamic principles, and parlay these relationships into a detailed model of simultaneous accretion of the protoSun and planets from the dust-bearing 3-d pre-solar nebula (PSN). Gravitational heating is insignificant because U g is negative, the 2nd law of thermodynamics must be fulfilled, and ideal gas conditions pertain to the rarified PSN until the objects were nearly fully formed. Combined conservation of angular momentum and mechanical energy during 3-dimensional collapse of spheroidal dust shells in a contracting nebula provides ΔR.E.≅R.E. for the central body, whereas for formation of orbiting bodies, ΔR.E.≅R.E. f (1−I f /I i ), where I is the moment of inertia. Orbital data for the inner planets follow 0.04×R.E. f ≅−U g which confirms conservation of angular momentum. Significant loss of spin, attributed to viscous dissipation during differential rotation, masks the initial spin of the un-ignited protoSun predicted by R.E.=−U g . Heat production occurs after nearly final sizes are reached via mechanisms such as shear during differential rotation and radioactivity. We focus on the dilute stage, showing that the PSN was compositionally graded due to light molecules diffusing preferentially, providing the observed planetary chemistry, and set limits on PSN mass, density, and temperature. From measured planetary masses and orbital characteristics, accounting for dissipation of spin, we deduce mechanisms and the sequence of converting a 3-d dusty cloud to the present 2-d Solar System, and infer the evolution of dust and gas densities. Duration of events is obtained from the time-dependent virial theorem. As the PSN slowly contracted, collapse of pre-solar dust in spheroidal shells simultaneously formed rocky protoplanets embedded in a dusty debris disk, creating their nearly circular co-planar orbits and upright axial spins with the same sense as orbital rotation, which were then enhanced via subsequent local contraction of nearby nebulae. Because rocky kernels at great distance out-competed the pull of the co-accreting star, gas giants formed in the outer reaches within ∼3Ma as PSN contraction hastened. This pattern repeated to form satellite systems. The PSN imploded, once constricted to within Jupiter''s orbit. Afterwards, disk debris slowly spiraled toward the protoSun, cratering and heating intercepted surfaces. Our conservative 3-d model, which allows for different behaviors of gas and dust, explains key Solar System characteristics (spin, orbits, gas giants and their compositions) and second-order features (dwarf planets, comet mineralogy, satellite system sizes). [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: To obtain the desired answer in support of a popular, previous cooling model for the sea floor, Wei and Sandwell provide a construct that is contrary to the simple physics governing subsidence of cooling oceanic crust and is also fraught with mathematical errors. Seven of their eight equations are either misused or incorrect or both. Errors made by Wei and Sandwell include not conserving rock-mass, incorrect differentiation, dividing by zero, moving variable parameters freely in and out of integrals, and neglecting variations in density that embody the essence of the phenomenon being modeled. We demonstrate all the above, show that their construct is closely related to the half-space cooling model, and that the linear, not volumetric thermal expansivity should have been used. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Data from the 1803–1806 Lewis and Clark expedition and nineteenth century stage records are used to quantitatively benchmark natural, premanagement hydrology of the lower Missouri River and assess the magnitude and timing of hydrologic change over nearly two centuries. Data show doubling in daily stage variability from the nineteenth century to 2005. Annual maximum stages have, at some sites, become more extreme, and their seasonality is less regular. Observed changes adversely affect riverine habitat and flood levels; their timing, beginning as early as 1900, suggests that channelization is the major driver. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An extensive base of water quality information emphasizing the effects of land use and hydrology was obtained in the karstified Fountain Creek watershed of southwestern Illinois to help resolve local water quality issues. Agrichemicals dominate the loads of most water quality constituents in the streams and shallow karstic ground water. Only calcium (Ca), magnesium (Mg), Aluminum (Al), and sulfate (SO4) ions are predominantly derived from bedrock or soils, while agrichemicals contribute most of the sodium (Na), potassium (K), chlorine (Cl), nitrate (NO3), fluorine (F), phosphorus (P), and atrazine. Concentrations of individual ions correlate with discharge variations in karst springs and surface streams; highly soluble ions supplied by diffuse ground water are diluted by high flows, while less soluble ions increase with flow as they are mobilized from fields to karst conduits under storm conditions. Treated wastewater containing detergent residues dominates the boron load of streams and provides important subordinate loads of several other constituents, including atrazine derived from the Mississippi River via the public water supply. Average surface water concentrations at the watershed outlet closely approximate a 92:8 mixture of karst ground water and treated wastewater, demonstrating the dominance of ground water contributions to streams. Therefore the karst aquifer and watershed streams form a single water quality system that is also affected by wastewater effluent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Examines the consequences of different management practices for flood control in the Mississippi River. Effect of channelization on flood stage increases; Incidence of flood increases along stretches with wing dams and levees; Absence of flood increase in Meramec and upper Missouri.

Weldon Spring is consistently enriched in 18 O relative to other karst springs in east-central Missouri and western Illinois, suggesting an evaporated source component. Regional potentiometric head maps of the shallow aquifer suggest that Prairie Lake, an artificial lake built between 1954 and 1982, could represent this component. Isotopic, biological and chemical tracing of the spring conclusively verify the hypothesis that this lake has impacted Weldon Spring. Mixing calculations indicate that Weldon Spring is now comprised of approximately 80% lake water and 20% groundwater. Recent measurements indicate that the discharge rate of the spring is now approximately 10 times the rate prior to the construction of the lake, confirming the augmentation of flow by a new source. Analysis of the isotopic trends indicates that the subsurface travel time is short, and suggests that the conduits connecting the lake and the spring may be progressively enlarging. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Empirical laws proposed for the decline in star spin with time have heretofore been tested using ambiguous fitting models. We develop an analytical inverse model that uses histogram data to unequivocally determine the physical law governing how dwarf star spin depends on time (t) and mass (M). We analyze shapes of paired histograms of axial rotation period (П) and angular velocity (ω = 2π/П) to utilize the fact that a variable and its reciprocal are governed by the same physics. Copious data on open clusters are used to test the formula ∂ω/∂t ∝ − ωn where n is unrestricted, and thus covers diverse possibilities. Histogram conjugates for each of 15 clusters with 120 to 812 measurements provide n = 1.13 ± 0.19. Results are independent of initial spin rate, bin size, cluster parameters, and star mass. Notably, 11 large clusters with mostly M-types yield fits with n = 1.07 ± 0.12. Associations behave similarly. Only exponential decay (n = 1) explains the similar shapes of the conjugate histograms for the spin period and angular velocity, despite the asymmetric (inverse) relationship of these variables. This rate law is consistent with viscous dissipation. Forward modeling confirms that n is near unity and further shows that coeval formation of all stars in a cluster does not occur. We therefore explore a constant rate of star production, which is reasonable for tiny stars. Inverse models show that episodic production increases with mass, but is unimportant below ~0.55 MSun. We infer star and cluster ages, and find that star production becomes less regular with time, as interstellar gas and dust are progressively depleted. Our new analytical approach of extracting a physical law from conjugate histograms is general and widely applicable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Five large and many small landslides are developed in Jurassic strata along the lower reaches of Xiangxi River, where interbedded weak and hard bedrock layers foster the development of landslides with a "stair-step" sliding surface. The paper investigates the evolution characteristics of these landslides and presents a novel forecasting model for their displacements. The distribution characteristics and behavior of landslides developed along Xiangxi River is revealed by the database of landslides in the larger Zigui basin, of which this area is part. Most landslides occur at rather low elevations of <300 m and in areas of moderate rainfall. The geological evolution of landslides in the Xiangxi River valley can be divided into four stages, beginning with anticline formation, followed by valley incision, then by weathering and erosion, and culminating in formation of the colluvial landslides. The accumulative displacement curves of landslides with a stair-step sliding surface in Xiangxi River region also present obvious, step-like characteristics. A novel GA-CEEMD-RF algorithm was developed to predict the displacement of these stair-step landslides, which helps to define the combination of induced factors and weak stableness of prediction results using a single displacement prediction model and the multi-field monitoring data. • The distribution characteristics of landslides developed along lower reaches of Xiangxi River was revealed. • Interbedded weak and hard bedrock layers foster the development of landslides with a "stair-step" sliding surface. • The geological evolution of landslides in the Xiangxi River valley can be divided into four stages. • A novel GA-CEEMD-RF algorithm was developed to predict the displacement of stair-step landslides. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Available data on insulating, semiconducting, and metallic solids verify our new model that incorporates steady-state heat flow into a macroscopic, thermodynamic description of solids, with agreement being best for isotropic examples. Our model is based on: (1) mass and energy conservation; (2) Fourier's law; (3) Stefan–Boltzmann's law; and (4) rigidity, which is a large, yet heretofore neglected, energy reservoir with no counterpart in gases. To account for rigidity while neglecting dissipation, we consider the ideal, limiting case of a perfectly frictionless elastic solid (PFES) which does not generate heat from stress. Its equation-of-state is independent of the energetics, as in the historic model. We show that pressure-volume work (PdV) in a PFES arises from internal interatomic forces, which are linked to Young's modulus (Ξ) and a constant (n) accounting for cation coordination. Steady-state conditions are adiabatic since heat content (Q) is constant. Because average temperature is also constant and the thermal gradient is fixed in space, conditions are simultaneously isothermal: Under these dual restrictions, thermal transport properties do not enter into our analysis. We find that adiabatic and isothermal bulk moduli (B) are equal. Moreover, Q/V depends on temperature only. Distinguishing deformation from volume changes elucidates how solids thermally expand. These findings lead to simple descriptions of the two specific heats in solids: ∂ln(cP)/∂P = −1/B; cP = nΞ times thermal expansivity divided by density; cP = cVnΞ/B. Implications of our validated formulae are briefly covered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents statistics related to public safety and flood events in the United States.

Editorial. Comments on the nitrate contamination of surface water and groundwater in the U.S. Excess nitrates produced by fertilizer use; Effect of nitrates on water quality; Evidence of excess nitrates becoming nonpoint source pollution.

Variations of reservoir water level and seasonal precipitation have reactivated or accelerated many reservoir landslides in the Three Gorges Reservoir area since impoundment in 2003. Updated daily monitoring data since 2017 reveals details about the step-like pattern of annual movement of the Baijiabao landslide, a large creeping landslide with a maximal cumulative surface displacement of 0.2 m over this 2-year period. The spatiotemporal deformation characteristics show that mass movement was greatest in 2017 and boundary cracks exhibit more frequent steps and are more sensitive to hydraulic factors than surface displacement. Acceleration periods are triggered when the reservoir water level falls below 153 m above mean sea level, with most annual movement occurring before the reservoir rises back to that critical level. The rate of daily surface movement is controlled by the daily variation of reservoir water level and by cumulative rainfall during the previous 1 to 7 days. The movement responses vary from different years and movement periods, but the one-factor critical-level model can effectively predict surface movement. The correlation between surface displacement rate and reservoir water level also comprehensively indicates the association between landslide movement and hydraulic factors including rainfall and variation of reservoir water level. Low reservoir level and its drawdown, and heavy or continuous rainfall, increase hydraulic gradients and change stress conditions, which destabilize the Baijiabao landslide and accelerate its surface movement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Natural rock often suffers from cyclic wetting–drying involving different water types, and the resulting deterioration may differ from laboratory tests using distilled water or salt solutions. An inappropriate estimation of this deterioration effect may lead to fatal geological hazards and engineering failures. A multiscale study is conducted to investigate the physical and mechanical features of sandstone in Three Gorges Reservoir region (TGR sandstone) subjected to cyclic wetting–drying of Yangtze River water. During this study, three types of water, i.e., Yangtze River water, ionized water having similar ion compositions as the Yangtze River water, and distilled water, are used for comparison. The results show that the multiscale physical properties including mineral compositions (especially calcite and albite), micro-pore parameters, computed tomography values, and macro-mechanical parameters (i.e., Young's modulus, uniaxial compression strength and tensile strength) are remarkably altered during the cyclic wetting–drying process. Significant correlations are found between these numerous multiscale properties. The results indicate that changes of mineral compositions and microstructure are the primary reasons for the deterioration of sandstone strength. The deterioration effect of distilled water on TGR sandstone is the least, while the effect of ionized water is the greatest, and that of river water being intermediate. These differences are ascribed to different chemical interactions, together with possible microorganism effects for river water, as microorganisms in river water potentially weaken the deterioration of cyclic wetting–drying of river water. In situ water is recommended for studying how rock properties are affected by water–rock interactions in real settings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Variations of reservoir water level and seasonal precipitation have resulted in significant movement and destabilization of landslides in the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) region of China since reservoir impoundment in 2003. An example is the Baijiabao landslide, a large, actively creeping landslide located in the steep lower valley of the Xiangxi River, about 55 km upstream of the TGR dam in the Yangtze River. Twelve years of monthly monitoring at four GPS stations and routine, monthly field observations show cumulative GPS displacements as large as >1.5 m and widely developed ground cracks. GPS monitoring results show that most movement takes place in rapid steps that coincide with the rainy season and the period of annual reservoir drawdown, with particularly large steps in 2009, 2012 and 2015. This step-like pattern of displacement is also shown by daily data from an automatic monitoring system installed in 2017. The total period of acceleration shown by these daily data was about six weeks long, with rapid movement starting during rapid reservoir drawdown, and terminating when the reservoir began to rise again. In particular, most of the 2018 displacement occurred in only two weeks. Different subzones of the landslide move at different rates and exhibit different features of deformation. The neighborhood rough set theory is used to identify the triggering factors responsible for landslide deformation. The most important triggering factors vary between different sites, data types and the time interval used to define them. The surface deformation and ground crack widening are controlled by the combination of rainfall and variations in the reservoir water levels, whereas the deformation of the sliding zone is most sensitive to the latter. The results show that daily data are needed to capture important, short-term landslide responses. The neighborhood rough set theory for determination of triggering factors is suggested for deformation prediction, stability evaluation, and prevention and control of reservoir landslides in this and other regions. • Spatiotemporal deformation characteristics of Baijiabao landslide over a twelve-year period are analyzed in detail. • Different acceleration periods and threshold hydraulic conditions are observed from daily and monthly monitoring data. • Neighborhood rough set theory is used to identify the triggering factors responsible for landslide deformation. • The most important triggering factors vary between different sites, data types and the time interval used to define them. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Jiweishan rockslide of June 5, 2009 in China provides an important opportunity to elucidate the kinetic characteristics of high-speed, long-runout debris flows. A 2D discrete element model whose mechanical parameters were calibrated using basic field data was used to simulate the kinetic behavior of this catastrophic landslide. The model output shows that the Jiweishan debris flow lasted about 3 min, released a gravitational potential energy of about 6 × 10^13 J with collisions and friction dissipating approximately equal amounts of energy, and had a maximum fragment velocity of 60–70 m/s, almost twice the highest velocity of the overall slide mass (35 m/s). Notable simulated characteristics include the high velocity and energy of the slide material, the preservation of the original positional order of the slide blocks, the inverse vertical grading of blocks, and the downslope sorting of the slide deposits. Field observations that verify these features include uprooted trees in the frontal collision area of the air-blast wave, downslope reduction of average clast size, and undamaged plants atop huge blocks that prove their lack of downslope tumbling. The secondary acceleration effect and force chains derived from the numerical model help explain these deposit features and the long-distance transport. Our back-analyzed frictions of the motion path in the PFC model provide a reference for analyzing and predicting the motion of similar geological hazards. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cyclic interactions between rocks and water have general significance and are particularly relevant to engineering failures and geohazards. A comprehensive investigation of the multi-scale deterioration effects and mechanisms of cyclic wetting-drying on rocks can contribute to better engineering applications, but the probabilistic characterization of rock mass properties under cyclic wetting-drying remains a problem due to the difficult-to-test parameters and limited data. Numerous experiments on rock samples of argillaceous siltstone subjected to cyclic wetting-drying of Yangtze River water demonstrate progressive alteration of rock properties on multiple scales, including changes in mineralogy, grain structure, computed tomography, microporosity, and complexity of micropores, with calcite and albite being the most active minerals. The uniaxial compression strength and indirect tensile strength decrease exponentially with the cyclic number, while the Young's modulus increases. Considering the probabilistic characteristics of the geological strength index, the probabilistic mechanical properties of rock mass of studied argillaceous siltstone are then estimated through the generalized Hoek-Brown criterion. The results indicate that the uniaxial compression strength and indirect tensile strength of rock mass both follow lognormal distributions, while the Young's modulus follows a skewed distribution. Long-term strength parameters of rock and rock mass can also be determined as they exhibit exponential trends with the cyclic number. During the cyclic wetting-drying process, the water-rock interactions produce progressive changes in mineral compositions, microstructures, and micropores; with the accumulation of variations of physical properties, defects grow and develop into weak zones, thus the mechanical properties of argillaceous siltstone are significantly weakened. Investigations of the wetting-drying effects on the geological strength index and probabilistic characteristics of rock sample properties are recommended to accurately evaluate rock mass properties affected by cyclic wetting-drying. • Argillaceous siltstone is treated by cyclic wetting-drying of Yangtze River water. • Dissolution of calcite and albite results in the synergistic evolution of rock properties. • Micropores with a diameter greater than 100 μm become predominant. • Probabilistic properties of rock mass strength under cyclic wetting-drying are evaluated. • Long-term strength of the rock mass is evaluated through the exponential fitting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Strata consisting of massive, dipping layers of hard rock interbedded with thin, soft interlayers are common in Southwest China, and this structure is conducive to the formation of consequent bedding rockslides. The huge Jiweishan rockslide is an example that mobilized 5.6 million m 3 of massive, lower Permian limestone that was stratigraphically situated above a weak, 30 cm-thick layer of bituminous shale with a downslope dip of 21°. Field data and historical observations indicate that the rupture surface of this rockslide weakened gradually from the rear, upper part to the front. This evidence includes (1) a decrease in the thickness and areal extent of fracture-parallel calcite veinlets along the thin rupture zone. (2) the development of a wide, vertical tension fracture at the upper boundary of the slide block, about 50 years before the catastrophic failure; (3) a succession of small collapses that migrated from the upper to the lower parts of the slide block in the decade before the massive failure. This type of landslide is accordingly termed an advancing consequent bedding rockslide (ACB rockslide). An equation was developed to simulate the mechanical behavior of the rupture surface as a function of position and time. Finally, a computational model that incorporates this equation was used to simulate the evolutionary history using realistic mechanical parameters. The simulation results show how the size of an upper “driving block” progressively enlarges at the expense of a lower “ locking block” that restrains the slide mass, until the locking block becomes so small and weak that failure occurs. Good agreement between the simulation results and field data support the proposed evolution model, including the calculated size of the locking block prior to failure and the width of the upper tension fracture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Analysis of hydrologic, meteorologic, and isotopic data collected over 3 yr quantifies and explains the enormous variability and isotopic enrichment (δ18O = 16.9, δD = +50:0) of alpine Lake Waiau, a culturally and ecologically significant perched lake near the summit of Mauna Kea, Hawai'i. Further, a simple one-dimensional hydrologic model was developed that couples standard water budget modeling with modeling of δD and δ18O isotopic composition to provide daily predictions of lake volume and chemistry. Data analysis and modeling show that winter storms are the primary source of water for the lake, adding a distinctively light isotopic signature appropriate for high-altitude precipitation. Evaporation at the windy, dry summit is the primary loss mechanism for most of the year, greatly enriching the lake in heavy isotopes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A modified Bayesian sequential updating approach is proposed to estimate GSI. • Multi-source information can be integrated in the approach. • GSI can be estimated using limited data based on various rock mass classifications. • Evaluated probabilistic characteristics of the GSI agree with the observed GSI data. • Rational result is achieved by taking model uncertainties as random normal variables. Explicit determination of geotechnical parameters is an important but difficult task in rock engineering. Paradoxically, data are often limited even though data from multiple sources (e.g., different testing procedures, testing positions, and estimation models) are commonly available, and the integration of multi-source information for the determination of geotechnical parameters in a probabilistic context remains a great challenge. We have modified an existing Bayesian sequential updating approach and used it for the first time to estimate the geological strength index (GSI) of rock masses by integrating multi-source information in a way that considers prior information, multiple estimation models and probabilistic properties of model uncertainties. The argillaceous siltstone in Zigui County in the Three Gorges Reservoir region of China was used to quantitatively illustrate this method. Three data sets using rock mass rating (RMR)-, tunneling quality index (Q)-, and rock mass index (RMi)-based estimation models were sequentially incorporated into the Bayesian sequential updating framework, through which the information on the mean value and standard deviation of the GSI can be updated. Then a large number of equivalent GSI samples were generated through Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation for further statistical analysis. The results showed that the proposed Bayesian sequential updating approach can provide reasonable probabilistic estimates of the GSI, which compared well with observed data using the standard GSI chart. The Bayesian sequential updating approach is a promising tool for geotechnical parameter estimation and can combine large amounts of information, thereby effectively depicting the probabilistic characteristics of GSI. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The construction of the huge Three Gorges reservoir affected a large region, and the resultant geological and environmental impacts have caused global concern. The remarkable, 30-m annual fluctuation in the reservoir water level poses a significant threat to slope stability in this area. Four hundred sixty-two landslides were identified in the Zigui basin using historical records, satellite images, field investigations and unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) observations, enabling the construction of a complete landslide database and distribution map. Three failure modes of landslides in the Zigui basin are used to illustrate the major factors that govern reservoir-induced landslides. The results show that (1) > 99% of identified landslides occur on slopes angle <47°, while >80% occur at elevations below 600 m; (2) Jurassic Niejiashan Formation is highly prone to landslides; (3) Low reservoir levels of 145 m to 155 m greatly reduce slope stability. Based on the information entropy method that use the conditional probability of different influencing factors and principal component analysis as inputs, the relative contributions of various influencing factors are quantified and a landslide susceptibility map was drawn. This susceptibility map helps define the countermeasures that will best reduce fatalities and property losses for areas having different landslide conditions and susceptibilities. • Database of 462 reservoir-induced landslides in Zigui basin, TGR was created. • Identifying failure modes and quantifying contributions of influential factors. • Conditional probability and information entropy model yields landslide susceptibility. • Susceptibility map, failure modes, and strategies suppressing the slope instability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]