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Recognition of climate-sensitive infectious diseases is crucial for mitigating health threats from climate change. Recent studies have reasoned about potential climate sensitivity of diseases in the Northern/Arctic Region, where climate change is particularly pronounced. By linking disease and climate data for this region, we here comprehensively quantify empirical climate-disease relationships. Results show significant relationships of borreliosis, leptospirosis, tick-borne encephalitis (TBE), Puumala virus infection, cryptosporidiosis, and Q fever with climate variables related to temperature and freshwater conditions. These data-driven results are consistent with previous reasoning-based propositions of climate-sensitive infections as increasing threats for humans, with notable exceptions for TBE and leptospirosis. For the latter, the data imply decrease with increasing temperature and precipitation experienced in, and projected for, the Northern/Arctic Region. This study provides significant data-based underpinning for simplified empirical assessments of the risks of several infectious diseases under future climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Freshwater ecosystems provide irreplaceable services for both nature and society. The quality and quantity of freshwater affect biogeochemical processes and ecological dynamics that determine biodiversity, ecosystem productivity, and human health and welfare at local, regional and global scales. Freshwater ecosystems and their associated riparian habitats are amongst the most biologically diverse on Earth, and have inestimable economic, health, cultural, scientific and educational values. Yet human impacts to lakes, rivers, streams, wetlands and groundwater are dramatically reducing biodiversity and robbing critical natural resources and services from current and future generations. Freshwater biodiversity is declining rapidly on every continent and in every major river basin on Earth, and this degradation is occurring more rapidly than in terrestrial ecosystems. Currently, about one third of all global freshwater discharges pass through human agricultural, industrial or urban infrastructure. About one fifth of the Earth's arable land is now already equipped for irrigation, including all the most productive lands, and this proportion is projected to surpass one third by midcentury to feed the rapidly expanding populations of humans and commensal species, especially poultry and ruminant livestock. Less than one fifth of the world's preindustrial freshwater wetlands remain, and this proportion is projected to decline to under one tenth by midcentury, with imminent threats from water transfer megaprojects in Brazil and India, and coastal wetland drainage megaprojects in China. The Living Planet Index for freshwater vertebrate populations has declined to just one third that of 1970, and is projected to sink below one fifth by midcentury. A linear model of global economic expansion yields the chilling prediction that human utilization of critical freshwater resources will approach one half of the Earth's total capacity by midcentury. Although the magnitude and growth of the human freshwater footprint are greater than is generally understood by policy makers, the news media, or the general public, slowing and reversing dramatic losses of freshwater species and ecosystems is still possible. We recommend a set of urgent policy actions that promote clean water, conserve watershed services, and restore freshwater ecosystems and their vital services. Effective management of freshwater resources and ecosystems must be ranked amongst humanity's highest priorities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Geography and associated hydrological, hydroclimate and land-use conditions and their changes determine the states and dynamics of wetlands and their ecosystem services. The influences of these controls are not limited to just the local scale of each individual wetland but extend over larger landscape areas that integrate multiple wetlands and their total hydrological catchment – the wetlandscape. However, the data and knowledge of conditions and changes over entire wetlandscapes are still scarce, limiting the capacity to accurately understand and manage critical wetland ecosystems and their services under global change. We present a new Wetlandscape Change Information Database (WetCID), consisting of geographic, hydrological, hydroclimate and land-use information and data for 27 wetlandscapes around the world. This combines survey-based local information with geographic shapefiles and gridded datasets of large-scale hydroclimate and land-use conditions and their changes over whole wetlandscapes. Temporally, WetCID contains 30-year time series of data for mean monthly precipitation and temperature and annual land-use conditions. The survey-based site information includes local knowledge on the wetlands, hydrology, hydroclimate and land uses within each wetlandscape and on the availability and accessibility of associated local data. This novel database (available through PANGAEA 10.1594/PANGAEA.907398; Ghajarnia et al., 2019) can support site assessments; cross-regional comparisons; and scenario analyses of the roles and impacts of land use, hydroclimatic and wetland conditions, and changes in whole-wetlandscape functions and ecosystem services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Geography and associated hydrological, hydroclimate and land use conditions and their changes determine the states and dynamics of wetlands and their ecosystem services. The influences of these controls are not limited to just the local scale of each individual wetland, but extend over larger landscape areas that integrate multiple wetlands and their total hydrological catchment – the wetlandscape. However, the data and knowledge of conditions and changes over entire wetlandscapes are still scarce, limiting the capacity to accurately understand and manage critical wetland ecosystems and their services under global change. We present a new database, consisting of geographic, hydrological, hydroclimate and land use information and data for 27 wetlandscapes around the world. This combines survey-based local information with geographic shapefiles and gridded datasets of large-scale hydroclimate and land use conditions and their changes over whole wetlandscapes. Temporally, the database contains 30-year time series of data for mean monthly precipitation and temperature, and annual land use conditions. The survey-based site information includes local knowledge on the wetlands, hydrology, hydroclimate and land uses within each wetlandscape, and on the availability and accessibility of associated local data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Flow regulation and irrigation alter local freshwater conditions, but their global effects are highly uncertain. We investigated these global effects from 1901 to 2008, using hydroclimatic observations in 100 large hydrological basins. Globally, we find consistent and dominant effects of increasing relative evapotranspiration from both activities, and decreasing temporal runoff variability from flow regulation. The evapotranspiration effect increases the long-term average human consumption of fresh water by 3563 ± 979 km³/year from 1901-1954 to 1955-2008. This increase raises a recent estimate of the current global water footprint of humanity by around 18%, to 10,688 ± 979 km³/year. The results highlight the global impact of local water-use activities and call for their relevant account in Earth system modeling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Our possibility to appropriately detect, interpret and respond to climate-driven phenological changes depends on our ability to model and predict the changes. This ability may be hampered by non-linearity in climate-phenological relations, and by spatiotemporal variability and scale mismatches of climate and phenological data. A modeling methodology capable of handling such complexities can be a powerful tool for phenological change projection. Here we develop such a methodology using citizen scientists’ observations of first flight dates for orange tip butterflies (Anthocharis cardamines) in three areas extending along a steep climate gradient. The developed methodology links point data of first flight observations to calculated cumulative degree-days until first flight based on gridded temperature data. Using this methodology we identify and quantify a first flight model that is consistent across different regions, data support scales and assumptions of subgrid variability and observation bias. Model application to observed warming over the past 60 years demonstrates the model usefulness for assessment of climate-driven first flight change. The cross-regional consistency of the model implies predictive capability for future changes, and calls for further application and testing of analogous modeling approaches to other species, phenological variables and parts of the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Human population growth and resource use, mediated by changes in climate, land use, and water use, increasingly impact biodiversity and ecosystem services provision. However, impacts of these drivers on biodiversity and ecosystem services are rarely analyzed simultaneously and remain largely unknown. An emerging question is how science can improve the understanding of change in biodiversity and ecosystem service delivery and of potential feedback mechanisms of adaptive governance. We analyzed past and future change in drivers in south-central Sweden. We used the analysis to identify main research challenges and outline important research tasks. Since the 19th century, our study area has experienced substantial and interlinked changes; a 1.6°C temperature increase, rapid population growth, urbanization, and massive changes in land use and water use. Considerable future changes are also projected until the mid-21st century. However, little is known about the impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem services so far, and this in turn hampers future projections of such effects. Therefore, we urge scientists to explore interdisciplinary approaches designed to investigate change in multiple drivers, underlying mechanisms, and interactions over time, including assessment and analysis of matching-scale data from several disciplines. Such a perspective is needed for science to contribute to adaptive governance by constantly improving the understanding of linked change complexities and their impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Soil moisture influences and is influenced by water, climate, and ecosystem conditions, affecting associated ecosystem services in the landscape. This paper couples snow storage-melting dynamics with an analytical modeling approach to screening basin-scale, long-term soil moisture variability and change in a changing climate. This coupling enables assessment of both spatial differences and temporal changes across a wide range of hydro-climatic conditions. Model application is exemplified for two major Swedish hydrological basins, Norrström and Piteälven. These are located along a steep temperature gradient and have experienced different hydro-climatic changes over the time period of study, 1950-2009. Spatially, average intra-annual variability of soil moisture differs considerably between the basins due to their temperature-related differences in snow dynamics. With regard to temporal change, the long-term average state and intra-annual variability of soil moisture have not changed much, while inter-annual variability has changed considerably in response to hydro-climatic changes experienced so far in each basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights: [•] Quantification framework for long-term soil moisture change in a changing climate. [•] Variable unsaturated-groundwater zone extents. [•] Historic and projected future soil moisture change can be screened. [•] Increased frequency of dry soil moisture events over the 20th century. [•] Drought risk increase even though precipitation increases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hydro-climatic changes driven by human land and water use, including water use for irrigation, may be difficult to distinguish from the effects of global, natural and anthropogenic climate change. This paper quantifies and compares the hydro-climatic change effects of irrigation using a data-driven, basin-wise quantification approach in two different irrigated world regions: the Aral Sea drainage basin in Central Asia and the Indian Mahanadi River Basin draining into the Bay of Bengal. Results show that irrigation-driven changes in evapotranspiration and latent heat fluxes and associated temperature changes at the land surface may be greater in regions with small relative irrigation impacts on water availability in the landscape (here represented by the Mahanadi River Basin) than in regions with severe such impacts (here represented by the Aral region). Different perspectives on the continental part of Earth's hydrological cycle may thus imply different importance assessments of various drivers and impacts of hydro-climatic change. Regardless of perspective, however, actual basin-wise water balance constraints should be accounted to realistically understand and accurately quantify continental water change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Arctic is subject to growing economic and political interest. Meanwhile, its climate and water systems are in rapid transformation. In this paper, we review and extend a set of studies on climate model results, hydro-climatic change, and hydrological monitoring systems. Results indicate that general circulation model (GCM) projections of drainage basin temperature and precipitation have improved between two model generations. However, some inaccuracies remain for precipitation projections. When considering geographical priorities for monitoring or adaptation efforts, our results indicate that future projections by GCMs and recent observations diverge regarding the basins where temperature and precipitation changes currently are the most pronounced and where they will be so in the future. Regarding late twentieth-century discharge changes in major Arctic rivers, data generally show excess of water relative to precipitation changes. This indicates a possible contribution to sea-level rise of river water that was previously stored in permafrost or groundwater. The river contribution to the increasing Arctic Ocean freshwater inflow is similar in magnitude to the separate contribution from glaciers, which underlines the importance of considering all possible sources of freshwater when assessing sea-level change. We further investigate monitoring systems and find a lack of harmonized water chemistry data, which limits the ability to understand the origin and transport of nutrients, carbon and sediment to the sea. To provide adequate information for research and policy, Arctic hydrological and hydrochemical monitoring needs to be extended, better integrated and made more accessible. Further water-focused data and modeling efforts are required to resolve the source of excess discharge in Arctic rivers. Finally, improvements in climate model parameterizations are needed, in particular for precipitation projections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This perspective paper argues for an urgent need to monitor a set of 12 concrete, measurable indicators of food and water security in the Arctic over time. Such a quantitative indicator approach may be viewed as representing a reductionist rather than a holistic perspective, but is nevertheless necessary for actually knowing what reality aspects to monitor in order to accurately understand, quantify, and be able to project critical changes to food and water security of both indigenous and non-indigenous people in the Arctic. More relevant indicators may be developed in the future, taking us further toward reconciliation between reductionist and holistic approaches to change assessment and understanding. However, the potential of such further development to improved holistic change assessment is not an argument not to urgently start to monitor and quantify the changes in food and water security indicators that are immediately available and adequate for the Arctic context. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights: [•] We investigate strategies for prioritization of Arctic hydro-climatic monitoring. [•] Results show conflicting prioritization basis across 14 major Arctic basins. [•] Current monitoring is partly relevant for present but not projected future changes. [•] Major spatial shifts must be anticipated with regard to climate change severity. [•] Temporal shifts must be anticipated with precipitation decrease turning to increase. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study uses GIS-based modeling of incoming solar radiation to quantify fine-resolved spatiotemporal responses of monthly average temperature, and diurnal temperature variation, at different times and locations within a field study area located on the eastern coast of Sweden. Near-surface temperatures are measured by a network of temperature sensors during the spring and summer of 2011 and then used as the basis for model development and testing. The modeling of finescale spatiotemporal variation considers topography, distance from the sea, and observed variations in atmospheric conditions, accounting for site latitude, elevation, surface orientation, daily and seasonal shifts in sun angle, and effects of shadows from surrounding topography. The authors find a lag time between insolation and subsequent temperature response that follows an exponential decay from coastal to inland locations. They further develop a linear regression model that accounts for this lag time in quantifying fine-resolved spatiotemporal temperature evolution. This model applies in the considered growing season for spatial distribution across the studied near-coastal landscape. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An introduction to the journal is presented in which the editor discusses various reports within the issue on topics including groundwater contamination in Alaska, permafrost setting in Siberia, and safety of nuclear waste storage for a sedimentary basin in northeastern France.

Successful implementation of an international nutrient abatement agreement, such as the Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP), requires consistent understanding of the baseline nutrient loads, and a perception of acceptable costs and fairness in targeted reductions of these base line loads. This article presents a general framework for identifying the implications of divergence between different nutrient load quantification approaches, with regard to both cost and fairness criteria outcomes, for the international agreement to decrease nutrient loads into the Baltic Sea as presented in the BSAP. The results indicate that even relatively small divergence in the nutrient load quantification translates into relatively large differences in abatement cost for different Baltic Sea countries. A robust result, irrespective of differences in nutrient load assessments, is a conflict between abatement cost effectiveness and fairness, with relatively poor countries facing heavy abatement cost burdens for cost-effective international load abatement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rapid changes to the Arctic hydrological cycle challenge both our process understanding and our ability to find appropriate adaptation strategies. We have investigated the relevance and accuracy development of climate change projections for assessment of water cycle changes in major Arctic drainage basins. Results show relatively good agreement of climate model projections with observed temperature changes, but high model inaccuracy relative to available observation data for precipitation changes. Direct observations further show systematically larger (smaller) runoff than precipitation increases (decreases). This result is partly attributable to uncertainties and systematic bias in precipitation observations, but still indicates that some of the observed increase in Arctic river runoff is due to water storage changes, for example melting permafrost and/or groundwater storage changes, within the drainage basins. Such causes of runoff change affect sea level, in addition to ocean salinity, and inland water resources, ecosystems, and infrastructure. Process-based hydrological modeling and observations, which can resolve changes in evapotranspiration, and groundwater and permafrost storage at and below river basin scales, are needed in order to accurately interpret and translate climate-driven precipitation changes to changes in freshwater cycling and runoff. In contrast to this need, our results show that the density of Arctic runoff monitoring has become increasingly biased and less relevant by decreasing most and being lowest in river basins with the largest expected climatic changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents a study on the influence of permafrost to the hydrologic response of a catachment scale in Yukon River Basin (YRB) in Alaska. It mentions the good relationship between the relative increase in recession flow intercept and the relative annual increase in groundwater flow. The study shows that the use of utility of recession flow analysis reflects catachment-scale changes in permafrost conditions.

The Energy Committee of the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences has in a series of projects gathered information and knowledge on renewable energy from various sources, both within and outside the academic world. In this article, we synthesize and summarize some of the main points on renewable energy from the various Energy Committee projects and the Committee's Energy 2050 symposium, regarding energy from water and wind, bioenergy, and solar energy. We further summarize the Energy Committee's scenario estimates of future renewable energy contributions to the global energy system, and other presentations given at the Energy 2050 symposium. In general, international coordination and investment in energy research and development is crucial to enable future reliance on renewable energy sources with minimal fossil fuel use. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study develops a general quantification framework for consistent intermodel and intercatchment comparison of the nutrient and pollutant mass loading from multiple sources in a catchment area to downstream surface and coastal waters. The framework accounts for the wide spectrum of different transport pathways and travel times through the subsurface (soil, groundwater, sediment) and the linked surface (streams, lakes, wetlands) water systems of a catchment. The account is based on key flow partitioning and mass delivery fractions, which can be quantified differently by different flow and transport and reaction models. The framework application is exemplified for two Swedish catchment cases with regard to the transport of phosphorus and of a generic attenuating solute. The results show essential differences in model quantifications of transport pathways and temporal spreading, with important implications for our understanding of cause and effect in the catchment-scale nutrient and pollutant loading to downstream waters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The zinc load from the Dalãlven River to the Baltic Sea is greater than for any other watercourse in Sweden. This paper investigates zinc mass flows into and through the Dalälven River from major mining areas within its drainage basin. Reported zinc mass flow data for this river are re-analyzed using an input-output flow analysis approach. Results show major inconsistencies in previous data interpretations which totally neglected possible zinc mass load contributions from the groundwater system to the river. This paper quantifies significant subsurface zinc load contributions that are consistent with all independently available data. Furthermore, a possible explanation for why these subsurface contributions may have been missed in previous studies and by the prevailing Swedish environmental monitoring system is provided. The study indicates that the input-output flow analysis approach may be generally useful for identifying and quantifying diffuse, unmonitored and uncertain pollutant load contributions from ground- to surface water systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: This paper investigates the propagation of quantifiable probability and quantification uncertainty of water pollution from local pollutant sources at and below the land surface, through the groundwater system, to downstream surface water recipients. Methodologically, the study shows how the risk and uncertainty of surface water pollution within a catchment may be assessed by a combined methodology of a Lagrangian stochastic advective-reactive modelling approach, which accounts for the quantifiable pollutant transport randomness, and a scenario analysis approach, which accounts for different quantification uncertainties. The results show that, in general, unambiguous risk assessment requires at least a reliable order-of-magnitude quantification of the prevailing relation between the average rate of physical pollutant transport from source to recipient and the average rate of pollutant attenuation. If this average relation can be reliably estimated to fall within two identified, relatively wide open value ranges, the assessment of pollution risk to surface waters from localised sources at or below the soil surface may be unambiguous even under otherwise large quantification uncertainty. For a relatively narrow, closed value range of this average rate relation, however, risk assessment must either rely on conservative assumptions, or else be based on a more detailed and resource demanding quantification of pollutant transport. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Environmental policies for water quality and ecosystem management do not commonly require explicit stochastic accounts of uncertainty and risk associated with the quantification and prediction of waterborne pollutant loads and abatement effects. In this study, we formulate and investigate a possible environmental policy that does require an explicit stochastic uncertainty account We compare both the environmental and economic resource allocation performance of such an uncertainty-accounting environmental policy with that of deterministic, risk-prone and risk- averse environmental policies under a range of different hypothetical, yet still possible, scenarios. The comparison indicates that a stochastic uncertainty-accounting policy may perform better than deterministic policies over a range of different scenarios. Even in the absence of reliable site-specific data, reported literature values appear to be useful for such a stochastic account of uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We simulate and analyze long-term dynamics of coastal nitrogen (N) loading and the inland source changes and processes that may have determined its development over the past 60-year period and may govern its possible future responses to various N source management scenarios. With regard to processes, the results show that average basin-scale N delivery fractions to the coast may not be representative of the coastal impacts of either diffuse or point inland sources. The effects of inland source changes may be greatly redistributed in space-time and delayed by slow N transport and mass transfer processes in the subsurface water system of coastal catchments. Extrapolation of current N transport-attenuation conditions for quantification of future abatement effects may therefore be misleading if the extrapolation models do not realistically represent delayed long-term influences of slow subsurface processes. With regard to policy, the results show that and why national Swedish and international Baltic Sea region policies for coastal N load abatement may be difficult or impossible to achieve by inland source abatement only. Large mitigation of both point and diffuse sources may be necessary to achieve targeted coastal N load reductions fast and maintain them also in the long term. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Modeling of the spatial distribution of nitrogen transport and attenuation from various inland sources and along different hydrological pathways to coastal waters is needed for relevant decisions on effective allocation of measures for coastal nitrogen load abatement. We identify, classify, and quantify uncertainties associated with main discrepancies between spatial process representations in different catchment-scale nitrogen transport-attenuation models. The results show important model differences, indicating scientific disagreement on the realistic spatial process understanding, representation, and quantification in nitrogen transport-attenuation modeling. By further developing solutions for economic optimization of spatially differentiated nitrogen source abatement in coastal catchments, we find this disagreement to considerably affect the economic efficiency of coastal nitrogen load reduction. It may also lead to stakeholder mistrust and conflict and needs to be recognized and handled in environmental policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: We use input–output analysis of nitrogen flows between various sources–sectors and natural waters in the Swedish Norrström drainage basin for investigating and bounding the implication range of some uncertainty sources for results of subsurface nitrogen accumulation–depletion in this basin. We quantify different possible base and extreme assumptions of nitrogen discharges and transport pathways from agriculture to surface and groundwater in the basin. The results are robust in showing considerable nitrogen accumulation–depletion flow interactions taking place between the basin’s mobile water and accumulated nitrogen pools in soils, sediments and/or relatively immobile subsurface water zones for all different scenario assumptions. Similar scenario robustness is also found in resulting relative contributions of different active nitrogen source–sectors to nitrogen flows in natural water systems. In the Norrström basin, and possibly more generally, nitrogen accumulation–depletion flows to and from accumulated legacies for the future or from the past appear therefore to be more important for water quality than current nitrogen discharges from active source–sectors. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

We present an updated, harmonized hydrologic base map of the entire Baltic Sea Drainage Basin (BSDB), including 634 subdrainage basins. The updated map has a level of detail approximately 5 to 10 times higher than the current standard and includes various spatial-aggregation possibilities of relevance for water management. All 634 subdrainage basins and their various spatial aggregations are characterized in terms of population, land cover, drainage density, and slope. We identify, quantify, and characterize, in particular, drainage basins that are unmonitored with regard to the combination of water-flow and nutrient-concentration measurements needed to monitor coastal nutrient and pollutant loading. Results indicate that out of a total BSDB population of 84 239 000 in 2002, 24% lived in unmonitored coastal drainage basins that cover 13% of the total BSDB area. A more detailed analysis of Swedish catchments indicates that Sweden has a particularly large proportion of unmonitored coastal catchment areas (20% of the total Swedish area) with high population pressures (55% of the total Swedish population), when compared with average conditions for the whole BSDB. In general, the investigated characteristics of unmonitored coastal basins vary and differ largely from those in adjacent monitored drainage basins within the BSDB. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: In mine water pollution abatement, it is commonly assumed that known mine waste sites are the major pollution sources, thus neglecting the possibility of significant contribution from other old and diffuse sources within a catchment. We investigate the influence of different types of pollution source uncertainty on cost-effective allocation of abatement measures for mine water pollution. A catchment-scale cost-minimization model is developed and applied to the catchment of the river Dalälven, Sweden, in order to exemplify important effects of such source uncertainty. Results indicate that, if the pollution distribution between point and diffuse sources is partly unknown, downstream abatement measures, such as constructed wetlands, at given compliance boundaries are often cost-effective. If downstream abatement measures are not practically feasible, the pollution source distribution between point and diffuse mine water sources is critical for cost-effective solutions to abatement measure allocation in catchments. In contrast, cost-effective solutions are relatively insensitive to uncertainty in total pollutant discharge from mine water sources. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Human water use and anthropogenic water pollution and ecosystem deterioration have increased so much that it is now a strategic challenge to maximize benefits from various possible water uses, white ensuring that basic human needs are met and the environment is protected. We propose and develop a novel use of input-output flow analysis as a relatively simple, compact and powerful tool for quantification of coupled natural and cross-sectoral flows of water, nutrients, and pollutants in catchments. The tool quantifies implications of various environmental regulation and management scenarios for both natural water systems and engineered-economic systems and sectors that use and impact natural waters for meeting human needs. Specific case study application to water and nitrogen flows in the Swedish Norrstrŏm drainage basin indicates considerable nitrogen toad contributions to surface and coastal waters from slow groundwater flow paths and legacies of accumulated nitrogen in subsurface and immobile water pools. This implies that effective nitrogen load abatement cannot focus only on active sources but must also include downstream measures, which can capture and abate nitrogen/pollutant loading from different types of known and yet unknown point and diffuse sources within associated catchments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Eutrophication problems in coastal and marine waters worldwide emphasize the significance, for the scientific community as well as the whole society, of relevant quantification of catchment-scale nitrogen transport from land to coast. Different catchment-scale nitrogen budget models use, and base management recommendations on, quite different process representations of and spatial resolution approaches to in-stream nitrogen attenuation. We compare three different spatial resolution approaches to modeling nitrogen loss rates in streams of the same drainage basin. Results show that commonly used spatial model aggregation may lead to artificial decrease of calibrated nitrogen loss rates with increasing stream depth (or flow), in addition to any such dependences that may prevail in independently measurable reality. Coastal nitrogen impact predictions and practical management implications of large-scale model aggregation of nitrogen attenuation rates may further differ considerably from those based on rates from finer resolution modeling or independent measurements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The note by Kampas and Adamidis (2004; KA) argues for a series of limitations in the paper by [Gren, I.-M., Destouni, G., Tempone R., 2002. Cost effective policies for alternative distributions of stochastic water pollution. Journal of Environmental Management, 66, 145–157.]. We systematically go through and reply to the arguments made by KA, showing that they are all based on misunderstanding of the pollutant load quantities involved in the GDT study and of the scope and purpose of the study. Specifically, the KA arguments are critically based on the invalid assumption of log-normality in individual, basin-scale annual pollutant loads, which are the basic pollutant transport quantities involved in the GDT study. We show that GDT never made, or had physical reason to make any such assumption, whereby the following KA arguments become irrelevant. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The dramatic shrinkage of the Aral Sea that has occurred after 1960 has affected also groundwater resources in the region, and this effect needs to be clarified and quantified because groundwater is essential for meeting freshwater demands in the area. We determine upper and lower limits for the groundwater discharge into the Aral Sea after 1960, by use of water balance expressions, treating the groundwater as a fitting parameter and considering the uncertainty of the dominant evaporation term in the Aral Sea water balance equation. We also independently analyze, from a pure groundwater hydraulic perspective, the relative effects of the on-going sea surface lowering since 1960 on the hydraulic gradient and thereby also the groundwater discharge into different regions of the Aral Sea. These independent analyses yield consistent results in terms of the total groundwater discharge into the Aral Sea being equal or greater than in 1960, with some relevant scenario results yielding increased groundwater discharge up to about 200% of the 1960 value. In terms of regional groundwater discharge distribution, the present (2002) discharge into the southeast part of Large Aral is not greater than it was 1960; analyses of about 3000 different and relevant parameter combinations show that this prediction is robust with respect to uncertainty in parameter values. The groundwater discharge into the northwest part of Large Aral and into the Small Aral, however, should have increased due to the on-going sea level lowering. Furthermore, for an unchanged absolute groundwater discharge, its relative importance for the Aral Sea(s) has increased dramatically, from being about 12% of the total river discharge in 1960 to about 100% of total river discharge presently, and constitutes now a critical factor for the fate of the present lake system. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Many environmental problems require assessment of extensive reaction systems within natural subsurface flow systems exhibiting large physical and biogeochemical heterogeneity. We present an approach to couple stochastic advective-reactive modeling of physical solute transport (LaSAR) with the geochemical model PHREEQC for modeling solute concentrations in systems with variable flow velocity and multicomponent reactions. PHREEQC allows for general and flexible quantification of a multitude of linear and nonlinear geochemical processes, while LaSAR efficiently handles field-scale solute spreading in stochastic heterogeneous flow fields. The combined LaSAR- PHREEGC approach requires very modest computational efforts, thereby allowing a large number of reactive transport problems to be readily assessed and facilitating handling of quantifiable uncertainty in environmental model applications. Computational efficiency and explicit handling of field-scale dispersion without introduction of excessive fluid mixing that may impair model results are general advantages of the LaSAR compared with alternative solute transport modeling approaches. The LaSAR-PHREEQC approach is restricted to steady or unidirectional flow fields, and our specific application examples are limited to homogeneous reaction systems without local or transverse dispersion-diffusion, although these are not general methodological limitations. As a comprehensive application example, we simulate the spreading of acid mine drainage in a groundwater focusing on Zn2+ and including relevant major-component geochemistry. Model results show that Zn2+ may be substantially attenuated by both sorption and precipitation, with flow heterogeneity greatly affecting expected solute concentrations downstream of the mine waste deposit in both cases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We simulate large-scale dynamics of submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) in three different coastal aquifers on the Mediterranean Sea. We subject these aquifers to a wide range of different groundwater management conditions, leading to widely different net groundwater drainage from land to sea. The resulting SGD at steady-state is quantifiable and predictable by simple linearity in the net land-determined groundwater drainage, defined as total fresh water drainage minus groundwater extraction in the coastal aquifer system. This linearity appears to be general and independent of site-specific, variable and complex details of hydrogeology, aquifer hydraulics, streamlines and salinity transition zones in different coastal systems. Also independently of site-specifics, low SGD implies high seawater content due to seawater intruding into the aquifer and mixing with fresh groundwater within a wide salinity transition zone in the aquifer. Increasing SGD implies decreasing seawater content, decreased mixing between seawater and fresh groundwater and narrowing of the salinity transition zone of brackish groundwater in the aquifer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Looks into the importance of cost effective coastal water management policies for the alternative distributions of stochastic water pollution in Sweden. Conduction of research on water resources protection and remediation; Efficiency of the management of coastal water supply; Assessment on the damage of the resources by pollution.

Outlines a methodology for quantifying the risk to exceed environmental regulation standards for ground water quality and coupling this risk quantification with an analysis of abatement costs for attaining an acceptable risk level. Background information on ground water contamination; Statement of problem and solution methodology; Illustration of results.

Compares mineral weathering rates determined in the laboratory and in the field. Quantification of environmental impacts; Utilization of well-characterized deposits of mining waste rock at the Aitik site in Sweden; Proposed model of scale-dependence.

In this paper we present a framework to aid in the selection of optimal environmental indicators for detecting and mapping extreme events and analyzing trends in heatwaves, meteorological and hydrological droughts, floods, and their compound occurrence. The framework uses temperature, precipitation, river discharge, and derived climate indices to characterize the spatial distribution of hazard intensity, frequency, duration, co-occurrence, and dependence. The relevant climate indices applied are Standardized Precipitation Index, Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), Standardized Streamflow Index, heatwave indices based on fixed (HWIS\documentclass[12pt]{minimal}\usepackage{amsmath}\usepackage{wasysym}\usepackage{amsfonts}\usepackage{amssymb}\usepackage{amsbsy}\usepackage{mathrsfs}\usepackage{upgreek}\setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt}\begin{document}$$_\textrm{S}$$\end{document}) and anomalous temperatures (HWIE\documentclass[12pt]{minimal}\usepackage{amsmath}\usepackage{wasysym}\usepackage{amsfonts}\usepackage{amssymb}\usepackage{amsbsy}\usepackage{mathrsfs}\usepackage{upgreek}\setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt}\begin{document}$$_\textrm{E}$$\end{document}), and Daily Flood Index (DFI). We selected suitable environmental indicators and corresponding thresholds for each hazard based on estimated extreme event detection performance using receiver operating characteristics (ROC), area under curve (AUC), and accuracy, which is defined as the proportion of correct detections. We assessed compound hazard dependence using a Likelihood Multiplication Factor (LMF). We tested the framework for the case of Sweden, using daily data for the period 1922–2021. The ROC results showed that HWIS\documentclass[12pt]{minimal}\usepackage{amsmath}\usepackage{wasysym}\usepackage{amsfonts}\usepackage{amssymb}\usepackage{amsbsy}\usepackage{mathrsfs}\usepackage{upgreek}\setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt}\begin{document}$$_\textrm{S}$$\end{document}, SPEI12 and DFI are suitable indices for representing heatwaves, droughts, and floods, respectively (AUC > 0.83). Application of these indices revealed increasing heatwave and flood occurrence in large areas of Sweden, but no significant change trend for droughts. Hotspots with LMF > 1, mostly concentrated in Northern Sweden from June to August, indicated that compound drought-heatwave and drought-flood events are positively correlated in those areas, which can exacerbate their impacts. The novel framework presented here adds to existing hydroclimatic hazard research by (1) using local data and historical records of extremes to validate indicator-based hazard hotspots, (2) evaluating compound hazards at regional scale, (3) being transferable and streamlined, (4) attaining satisfactory performance for indicator-based hazard detection as demonstrated by the ROC method, and (5) being generalizable to various hazard types. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Discusses the chloride breakthrough curves (BTCs) obtained from transport experiments on undisturbed soil monoliths. Application of advection-dispersion equation (ADE); Development of analytical solutions for various boundary conditions; Identifications of transport processes and the associated parameter values; Use of ADE parameters in describing spreading mechanism.

Changes in subsurface water resources might alter the surrounding ground by generating subsidence or uplift, depending on geological and hydrogeological site characteristics. Improved understanding of the relationships between surface water storage and ground deformation is important for design and maintenance of hydraulic facilities and ground stability. Here, we construct one of the longest series of Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) to date, over twenty-five years, to study the relationships between water level changes and ground surface deformation in the surroundings of Lake Mead, United States, and at the site of the Hoover Dam. We use the Small Baseline Subset (SBAS) and Permanent scatterer interferometry (PSI) techniques over 177 SAR data, encompassing different SAR sensors including ERS1/2, Envisat, ALOS (PALSAR), and Sentinel-1(S1). We perform a cross-sensor examination of the relationship between water level changes and ground displacement. We found a negative relationship between water level change and ground deformation around the reservoir that was consistent across all sensors. The negative relationship was evident from the long-term changes in water level and deformation occurring from 1995 to 2014, and also from the intra-annual oscillations of the later period, 2014 to 2019, both around the reservoir and at the dam. These results suggest an elastic response of the ground surface to changes in water storage in the reservoir, both at the dam site and around the reservoir. Our study illustrates how InSAR-derived ground deformations can be consistent in time across sensors, showing the potential of detecting longer time-series of ground deformation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Urban growth alters environmental conditions with major consequences for climate regulation and the exposure of population to heat. Nature-based solutions may be used to alleviate the increasing urban climate pressures, but the climate regulation services that these solutions can supply for and across different urban conditions remains understudied. We comparatively investigate the urban ecosystem service realization (considering the ecosystem service supply and demand spatial interactions) of local climate regulation by vegetated (green) and water-covered (blue) areas across 660 European cities. Results show relatively robust power-law relationships with city population density (average R2 of 0.34) of main indicators of ecosystem service realization. Country-wise fitting for city-average indicators strengthens these relationships, in particular for western European cities (average R2 of 0.66). Cross-city results also show strong power-law relationship of effectiveness in ecosystem service realization with socio-economic measures like Human Development Index and GPD per capita, in particular for the area fraction of city parts with high ecosystem service realization (R2 of 0.77). The quantified relationships are useful for comparative understanding of differences in ecosystem services realization between cities and city parts, and quantitative projection of possible change trends under different types of city growth so that relevant measures can be taken to counteract undesirable trends. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Warming and hydrological changes have already affected and shifted environments in the Arctic. Arctic wetlands are complex systems of coupled hydrological, ecological, and permafrost‐related processes, vulnerable to such environmental changes. This review uses a systems perspective approach to synthesize and elucidate the various interlinked responses and feedbacks of Arctic wetlands to hydroclimatic changes. Starting from increased air temperatures, subsequent permafrost thaw and concurrent hydrological changes are identified as key factors for both shrinkage and expansion of wetland area. Other diverse factors further interact with warming, hydrological changes, and permafrost thaw in altering the Arctic wetland systems. Surface albedo shifts driven by land cover alterations are powerful in reinforcing Arctic warming, while vegetation‐related factors can balance and decelerate permafrost thaw, causing negative feedback loops. With the vast amounts of carbon stored in Arctic wetlands, their changes in turn affect the global carbon cycle. Overall, the systems perspectives outlined and highlighted in this review can be useful in structuring and elucidating the interactions of wetlands with climate, hydrological, and other environmental changes in the Arctic, including the essential permafrost‐carbon feedback. This article is categorized under:Water and Life > Nature of Freshwater EcosystemsWater and Life > Stresses and Pressures on EcosystemsScience of Water > Water and Environmental Change [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Multiple change pressures from human activities and from climate variability and change affect water systems on land and at the coast and sea. Changes in these water systems in turn affect and feedback to multiple societal and ecosystem conditions and risks, e.g., for: water security and safety; food and energy security; human, animal and ecosystem health; and drought, flood and general climate-change mitigation/adaptation. Compound events with high societal and ecosystem impacts may result from various combinations of these water-related pressures and interactions. As a starting contribution to the European COST Action DAMOCLES, this study addresses the questions of: Which water-related compound events are most relevant for stakeholders? How much is currently known, by scientists and various stakeholders, about the multiple underlying variables and their inter-linkages for these events? What novel approaches can be used to ensure continuous stakeholder engagement?Using a "source-to-sea water-link" case study in the Baltic region, specifically the relatively well-studied Swedish Norrström drainage basin and its adjacent and surrounding coastal areas and associated marine basin of the Baltic Sea, we apply a participatory approach to conceptual model building, involving relevant stakeholders for the land, coast and sea aspects of linked water-related pressures, changes and impacts, and their interactions. Use of this participatory approach can increase understanding of how stakeholders from different sectors view and think about these interactions, and facilitate collaborative exploration of cross-sectoral cooperation opportunities for research, applications and innovations regarding water-related high-impact compound events. As a main part of the study and its approach application, six workshops have been held with stakeholders from different land, coast and sea sectors. In these, mind maps and causal loop diagrams have been co-created by the involved stakeholders and scientists for key land-coast-sea interactions under climate change and socio-economic developments to identify associated connections among sectors with potential high social and environmental impacts. A main aim of this co-creation process is to identify and eventually model and quantify the main dynamic cause-effect links for these interactions and impacts. We here report and analyze the resulting mind maps and causal loop diagrams, and their similarities and differences, as co-created in the sector workshops based on their different focus themes and stakeholder perspectives. In synthesis, we also discuss the causal loop diagram implications for further systems modelling and quantification of key water-related compound events and their impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This opinion piece addresses subsurface legacy sources and their role in mitigation of large‐scale water pollution and eutrophication. We provide a mechanistic theoretical basis and concrete data‐based exemplification of dominant contributions from such sources to total recipient loads. We specifically develop a diagnostic test to detect such contributions, recognizing that they are inaccessible and associated with long transport times that tend to evade detection when homogeneous catchment models are calibrated to typically heterogeneous catchments. Dominant legacy‐source contributions are also in practice untreatable within the commonly short time frames given for compliance with environmental regulation. We therefore argue that, for considerable water quality improvements to be achieved within such short time frames, mitigation measures need to be spatially differentiated and directed to (sub)catchments without major legacy sources. The presented diagnostic test identifies dominant prevalence of such sources where there is linear temporal correlation between the nutrient/pollutant loads and the water discharges from a (sub)catchment. Confidence in this identification may be strengthened by independent quantification of long transport times and records of temporally extended presence of nutrient/pollutant sources in the same (sub)catchment. This article is categorized under:Science of Water > Water and Environmental ChangeEngineering Water > Planning Water Nutrients and pollutants from earlier land‐surface inputs may have accumulated in subsurface legacy sources that add to current waterborne loads. We have developed a diagnostic test to guide effective, spatially differentiated mitigation measures to (sub)catchment zones without dominant legacy sources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Steffen et al. (Research Articles, 13 February 2015, p. 736) recently assessed current global freshwater use, finding it to be well below a corresponding planetary boundary. However, they ignored recent scientific advances implying that the global consumptive use of freshwater may have already crossed the associated planetary boundary. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Drought indicator prediction is assessed with various machine learning models. • The temporal method is most effective but requires large computing power. • The multi-features method achieves great performance in large scale prediction. • Soil moisture is the most readily modeled and best predicted drought indicator. Agricultural drought can severely reduce crop yields, lead to large economic losses and health impacts. Combined climate and land use variations determine key indicators of agricultural drought, including soil moisture and the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI). This study investigated the use of machine learning (ML) methods for predicting these indicators over Sweden, spanning steep climate and land use gradients. Three data arrangement methods (multi-features, temporal, and spatial) were used and compared in combination with seven ML/deep learning (DL) models (random forest (RF), decision tree, multivariate linear regression, support vector regression, autoregressive integrated moving average (AMIRA), artificial neural network, and convolutional neural network). Seven investigated features, obtained from Google Earth Engine, were used in the ML/DL modeling (soil moisture, PDSI, precipitation, evapotranspiration, elevation, slope and soil texture). The temporal ARIMA model (found most suitable for local scale prediction) and the multi-features RF model (more suitable for national-scale prediction) emerged as best performing for soil moisture prediction (with MAE of 9.1 and 11.95, and R2 of 0.79 and 0.59, respectively). All models generally performed better in predicting the soil moisture than the PDSI indicator of drought. For drought indicator prediction and mapping, previous-year average monthly soil moisture emerged as the most important feature, combined with the four additional corresponding features of PDSI, precipitation, evapotranspiration and elevation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]