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Aim: The Western Antarctic Peninsula is challenged by climate change and increasing maritime traffic that together facilitate the introduction of marine non‐native species from warmer regions neighbouring the Southern Ocean. Ballast water exchange has been frequently reported as an introduction vector. This study uses a Lagrangian approach to model the passive drift of virtual propagules departing from Ballast water hypothetic exchange zones, at contrasting distances from the coasts. Location: Western Antarctic Peninsula. Methods: Virtual propagules were released over the 2008–2016 period and at three distances from the nearest coasts: 200 (convention for the management of Ballast Water, 2004), 50 or 11 nautical miles (NM). Results: Results show that exchanging Ballast water at 200 NM considerably reduces the arrival of propagules in proposed marine protected areas of the western side of the Antarctic Peninsula. On the eastern side, propagules can reach north‐eastern marine protected areas within a few days due to strong currents for all tested scenarios. Seasonal and yearly variations indicate that exceptional climate events could influence the trajectory of particles in the region. Ballast water should be exchanged at least 200 NM offshore on the western side of the Antarctic Peninsula and avoided on the eastern side to limit particle arrival in proposed marine protected areas. Focusing on Deception Island, our results suggested that the Patagonian crab (Halicarcinus planatus) observed in 2010 could have been introduced in case of Ballast water exchange at 50 NM or less from the coast. Main conclusions: This study highlights the importance of respecting Ballast water exchange convention to limit the risk of non‐native species introduction. Ballast water exchange should be operated at least at 200 NM from the coasts, which further limits particle arrival in shallow water areas. This is especially important in the context of a more visited and warmer Southern Ocean. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: The species of the genus Chionodraco (Notothenioidei) are the most abundant icefish on the continental shelf of the Weddell Sea. While previous studies indicated that only Chionodraco hamatus and Chionodraco myersi inhabit the Weddell Sea, the third Chionodraco species, Chionodraco rastrospinosus, was recently sampled in the area. As C. rastrospinosus is supposed to be found only at the Antarctic Peninsula and Scotia Arc, this study aimed at confirming the species classification of C. rastrospinosus by molecular methods and identifying its putative source population. Given the documented evidence of introgression among the three species, we tested whether the newly found C. rastrospinosus shared any genetic variability with the other Chionodraco species. To explain the pattern of distribution of the Chionodraco species, we aimed at estimating the hydrodynamic connectivity between the Antarctic Peninsula and the Weddell Sea. Location: Antarctic Peninsula, southern Scotia Arc and the south‐eastern Weddell Sea. Methods: We genotyped 19 microsatellites and sequenced the mitochondrial D‐loop for 560 Chionodraco individuals. We simulated the dispersal of more than 3 million drifters (Lagrangian model). Results: The molecular analyses support the presence of C. rastrospinosus in the Weddell Sea and its homogeneity with C. rastrospinosus from the Antarctic Peninsula. Bayesian clustering identifies three putative hybrids among C. rastrospinosus and the other congenerics. Lagrangian simulations do not support connectivity driven by the oceanographic features of the Antarctic Peninsula and Weddell Sea via passive larval dispersal only. Main conclusions: This study documents, for the first time, the presence of C. rastrospinosus in the Weddell Sea unveiling more biodiversity than previously known in this region. The sympatry of the three Chionodraco species explains the occurrence of occasional, ongoing events of hybridization in the genus. Alternative possible hypotheses need to be tested in future studies about the mechanisms maintaining the interspecific connectivity in Chionodraco spp. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the last decades, nutrients loading to the sea have significantly increased due to the growing anthropogenic pressure in the river watersheds. Some areas of the English Channel and Southern Bight of the North Sea are particularly affected by the resulting eutrophication nuisances. Establishing the link between these nuisances and anthropogenic activities requires (1) the identification of the major nutrient sources and (2) the assessment of the ecosystem response to these nutrient alterations. A nutrient tracking approach has been implemented in the marine ecological model MIRO&CO to allow tracing marine nitrogen back to its continental sources over 2000–2010. On average, nitrogen atmospheric deposition contributes between 1 and 10 mmol N/m3 to marine nutrients concentrations in the English Channel and Southern Bight of the North Sea. This corresponds to relative contributions between 10 and 30%. River contributions remained localized except for the Seine and small French rivers. Different geographical patterns of sources contribution were found for wet and dry periods. Results also showed different contribution systems between offshore and coastal areas. Relative contributions from nitrogen sources to nutrients and phytoplankton biomass are similar. This study provides useful information to help identifying the causes of marine eutrophication and mitigating its nuisances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Trends in extreme temperature and precipitation in two regional climate model simulations forced by two global climate models are compared with observed trends over the western United States. The observed temperature extremes show substantial and statistically significant trends across the western United States during the late twentieth century, with consistent results among individual stations. The two regional climate models simulate temporal trends that are consistent with the observed trends and reflect the anthropogenic warming signal. In contrast, no such clear trends or correspondence between the observations and simulations is found for extreme precipitation, likely resulting from the dominance of the natural variability over systematic climate change during the period. However, further analysis of the variability of precipitation extremes shows strong correspondence between the observed precipitation indices and increasing oceanic Niño index (ONI), with regionally coherent patterns found for the U.S. Northwest and Southwest. Both regional climate simulations reproduce the observed relationship with ONI, indicating that the models can represent the large-scale climatic links with extreme precipitation. The regional climate model simulations use the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model and Hadley Centre Regional Model (HadRM) forced by the ECHAM5 and the Hadley Centre Climate Model (HadCM) global models for the 1970-2007 time period. Comparisons are made to station observations from the Historical Climatology Network (HCN) locations over the western United States. This study focused on temperature and precipitation extreme indices recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection Monitoring and Indices (ETCCDMI). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This work compares the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and Hadley Centre Regional Model (HadRM) simulations with the observed daily maximum and minimum temperature (Tmax and Tmin) and precipitation at Historical Climatology Network (HCN) stations over the U.S. Pacific Northwest for 2003–07. The WRF and HadRM runs were driven by the NCEP/Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP)-II Reanalysis (R-2) data. The simulated Tmax in WRF and HadRM as well as in R-2 compares well with the observations. Predominantly cold biases of Tmax are noted in WRF and HadRM in spring and summer, while in winter and fall more stations show warm biases, especially in HadRM. Large cold biases of Tmax are noted in R-2 at all times. The simulated Tmin compares reasonably well with the observations, although not as well as Tmax in both models and in the reanalysis R-2. Warm biases of Tmin prevail in both model simulations, while R-2 shows mainly cold biases. The R-2 data play a role in the model biases of Tmax, although there are also clear indications of resolution dependency. The model biases of Tmin originate mainly from the regional models. The temporal correlation between the simulated and observed daily precipitation is relatively low in both models and in the reanalysis; however, the correlation increases steadily for longer averaging times. The high-resolution models perform better than R-2, although the nested WRF domains do have the largest biases in precipitation during the winter and spring seasons. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since 1950, increase in nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) river loadings in the North-East Atlantic (NEA) continental seas has induced a deep change in the marine coastal ecosystems, leading to eutrophication symptoms in some areas. In order to recover a Good Ecological Status (GES) in the NEA, as required by European Water Framework Directive (WFD) and Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD), reductions in N- and P-river loadings are necessary but they need to be minimal due to their economic impact on the farming industry. In the frame of the “EMoSEM” European project, we used two marine 3D ecological models (ECO-MARS3D, MIRO&CO) covering the Bay of Biscay, the English Channel and the southern North Sea to estimate the contributions of various sources (riverine, oceanic and atmospheric) to the winter nitrate and phosphate marine concentrations. The various distributed descriptors provided by the simulations allowed also to find a log-linear relationship between the 90th percentile of satellite-derived chlorophyll concentrations and the “fully bioavailable” nutrients, i.e. simulated nutrient concentrations weighted by light and stoichiometric limitation factors. Any GES threshold on the 90th percentile of marine chlorophyll concentration can then be translated in maximum admissible ‘fully bioavailable’ DIN and DIP concentrations, from which an iterative linear optimization method can compute river-specific minimal abatements of N and P loadings. The method has been applied to four major river groups, assuming either a conservative (8 μg Chl L −1 ) or a more socially acceptable (15 μg Chl L −1 ) GES chlorophyll concentration threshold. In the conservative case, maximum admissible winter concentrations for nutrients correspond to marine background values, whereas in the lenient case, they are close to values recommended by the WFD/MSFD. Both models suggest that to reach chlorophyll GES, strong reductions of DIN and DIP are required in the Eastern French and Belgian-Dutch river groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coastal management and maritime safety strongly rely on accurate representations of the sea state. Both dynamical models and observations provide abundant pieces of information. However, none of them provides the complete picture. The assimilation of observations into models is one way to improve our knowledge of the ocean state. Its application in coastal models remains challenging because of the wide range of temporal and spatial variabilities of the processes involved. This study investigates the assimilation of temperature profiles with the ensemble Kalman filter in 3-D North Sea simulations. The model error is represented by the standard deviation of an ensemble of model states. Parameters' values for the ensemble generation are first computed from the misfit between the data and the model results without assimilation. Then, two square root algorithms are applied to assimilate the data. The impact of data assimilation on the simulated temperature is assessed. Results show that the ensemble Kalman filter is adequate for improving temperature forecasts in coastal areas, under adequate model error specification. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The potential for biological colonization of Antarctic shores is an increasingly important topic in the context of anthropogenic warming. Successful Antarctic invasions to date have been recorded exclusively from terrestrial habitats. While non‐native marine species such as crabs, mussels and tunicates have already been reported from Antarctic coasts, none have as yet established there. Among the potential marine invaders of Antarctic shallow waters is Halicarcinus planatus (Fabricius, 1775), a crab with a circum‐Subantarctic distribution and substantial larval dispersal capacity. An ovigerous female of this species was found in shallow waters of Deception Island, South Shetland Islands in 2010. A combination of physiological experiments and ecological modelling was used to assess the potential niche of H. planatus and estimate its future southward boundaries under climate change scenarios. We show that H. planatus has a minimum thermal limit of 1°C, and that its current distribution (assessed by sampling and niche modelling) is physiologically restricted to the Subantarctic region. While this species is presently unable to survive in Antarctica, future warming under both 'strong mitigation' and 'no mitigation' greenhouse gas emission scenarios will favour its niche expansion to the Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) by 2100. Future human activity also has potential to increase the probability of anthropogenic translocation of this species into Antarctic ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The dynamic–thermodynamic Louvain-la-Neuve sea ice model (LIM) has been coupled to the OPA primitive equation ocean general circulation model. In the ORCA2-LIM configuration, the model is run on a global domain with 2° mean resolution. Model runs are forced with a combined dataset consisting of daily NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and various climatologies. The model''s performance is evaluated with respect to the representation of sea ice and the high latitude oceans. The annual cycle of sea ice growth and decay is realistically captured in both hemispheres, with ice extent, thickness and drift in close agreement with observations. The location of the main sites of deep convection (Labrador and Greenland Seas; continental shelves of marginal seas of the Southern Ocean) is well reproduced. Model deficiencies include a slight overestimation of summer ice extent in the Arctic, and a significant underestimation of multi-year ice in the Weddell Sea. Furthermore, the width of the Arctic Ocean Boundary Current and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current is overestimated. Sensitivity studies indicate that the use of the combined forcing dataset is crucial to achieve a reasonable summer sea ice coverage and that the direct use of the NCEP/NCAR wind stress data leads to an overestimation of sea ice drift velocities. A restoring of sea surface salinity is necessary to avoid spurious open ocean convection in the Weddell Sea. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]