Search

In this paper a new model of short-term price levelling behaviour is introduced, for the case of variability arising from demand-side factors rather than supply-side factors. The key components are the direction of the information flow in the market, and the ability of value chain participants to adjust their demand for and supply of market services. The model is illustrated using data from the Papua New Guinea coffee industry. Almost all PNG coffee is exported to a wide range of countries. The industry has a competitive marketing structure with many active producers and buyers of various sizes. There is keen competition for the limited supply of coffee, but inefficiency in the pricing mechanism has long been a concern to many producers in the industry, in particular the smallholder coffee producers. They argue that increases in world coffee prices have not been fully passed on to growers, with exporters and processors able to hold their buying prices stable in the face of rising world market prices. In this study marketing margin analysis is used to investigate and test hypotheses related to price levelling, and in addition, the influence of marketing costs and throughput, on the aggregate industry margin, and the exporting margin and processing margin components. Average monthly price data over the period January 1999 to December 2010 are used. Using simple regression models, at the whole chain level short -run price levelling is confirmed and both aggregate costs and total volume of exports are significant determinants of the size of the margin. Short-run price levelling is also confirmed at both the exporting and processing stages, but in the preferred models, while throughput is an important determinant of exporter and processing margins, costs have a significant but negative effect on margins. Partial adjustment processes are important in determining margins at all stages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses the significance and methods of foreign trade export forecasting. The index system of foreign trade export forecasting is determined based on the analysis of foreign trade export forecasting research results. The concepts and principles of artificial neural network and fuzzy system theory are expounded, and their respective advantages and disadvantages as well as their complementarities are analyzed. This paper introduces the types and training algorithms of evolutionary morphological neural network, combines the neural network with the fuzzy system theory, and establishes the prediction model. Finally, the evolutionary morphological neural network model is applied to the prediction of foreign trade export in view of the characteristics of export and considering the influence of various factors, the whole process of establishing evolutionary morphological neural network forecasting model is introduced in detail, and the change range of export is predicted, and the ideal forecasting results are obtained. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main purpose of the paper is to econometrically assess the impact of the Risky Energy Export Demand index on economic growth in Azerbaijan. The study calculates the dynamics of the demand for energy exports over the past 20 years as an indicator of energy security. The least squares method, the ADF test, and the cointegration test were used to determine the cause- and- effect relationship between the Risky Energy Export Demand and economic growth. The main conclusion of the study is that the impact of Azerbaijan's Risky Energy Export Demand index on economic growth is positive, but not strong. It is necessary to improve the diversification of energy export directions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under the deep and protracted recession that plagues the Greek regions, exports have shown some positive signs of resilience. This paper explores through a spatial econometric analysis of SUR models, first, the changes that occurred in exports by the (NUTS 3 level) regions for the period 2008–2012 to offer resistance against the crisis and to stimulate growth, which entail expansion of export demand, improvement in the quality of agricultural products, deeper specialization in broad low‐technology sectors and simultaneous increases in the variety inside these sectors and second, the ability of exports to transfer their growth gains to the broader economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of this paper is to analyze the external sector on Cuban tobacco from the export demand perspective towards the euro area. A tobacco-specific exchange rate is built to better capture the distinctions of this sector when competing overseas. We apply cointegration in the Fully-Modified Ordinary Least Squares framework and complement an error correction mechanism. It is found that both long and short-run estimates of exchange rate elasticities are significantly inelastic but present, at the same time, a high degree of stability. This means that prices become a fundamental control variable for economic policy purposes. Moreover, there is statistical evidence that income elasticity plays a significant role in the determination of exports growth for Cuban tobacco. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, the authors estimate demand elasticities for East African fish exports to the European Union. Today, fish is one of the most important renewable resources in East Africa, and ranks as the region's highest nontraditional agricultural export earner. Furthermore, fish represents a vital contribution to the food and nutritional security of millions of people in the region and the sizeable export revenue it generates plays an important role in advancing the region's development strategy of increasing overall foreign exchange earning capability. In this respect, elasticity is one of the basic indicators when discussing policy impacts, but currently there are no elasticity estimates for East Africa's fish export demand to guide trade policy formulation. The results for the estimated export demand equation showed evidence of lower price and higher income elasticities, implying that, on one hand, the European Union's demand for East Africa fish is more sensitive to income changes than price changes and, on the other hand, the East African fishery industry can simultaneously reduce the rate of resource use while boosting fishery income through higher prices. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This paper investigates the aggregate export demand behaviour in Indonesia with annual data for the period 1963–2005. Both the Pesaran bounds testing and the Johansen cointegration tests results suggest that there exists a long-run relationship between real exports, world income and the relative export prices in Indonesia. The long-run income elasticity of the demand for Indonesia's exports is significantly greater than one and the long-run relative export price elasticity of the demand for its exports is significantly lower than one. The recursive and rolling regressions and the Hansen–Johansen stability test results suggest that the export demand function for Indonesia has undergone a significant structural change since the late-1990s, which is reflected in the decrease of the income elasticity, and an increase in the relative export price elasticity, of demand for Indonesian exports. These results explain the relatively slow growth of Indonesian exports since 2000 that has slowed the country's economic recovery from the financial crises of 1997–1998. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The paper discusses a study on regional integration and elasticities of export demand for Barbados products. The study showed that aside from tourism export services, Barbados has opportunities to exploit the sensitivity to foreign incomes of its good exports. The findings of the study would allegedly help determine the amount of products to sell in other countries. Also discussed in detail are the export demand model and the associated price and income elasticity estimates.

This study estimates a supply model for apricots and an export demand model for dried apricots for Turkey to provide unit-free measure coefficients for better supply and marketing management. Using parameter estimates from the models and sample average data, elasticities of long-run supply, price-yield and export of dried apricots were computed as 0.72, 0.54 and -0.87 respectively. From the price dependent export demand model, the price flexibility of dried apricots was calculated as -0.71. In this study, the import demand elasticities of dried apricots for major destination countries were estimated and found to be inelastic. An evaluation of aggregated household consumption expenditure data indicates that the demand for fresh apricots will increase as per capita real income, population and urban population go up, but the growth in domestic demand for dried apricots and apricot jam will gradually increase as per capita income, population and urban population go up. According to the supply and export demand elasticities of dried apricots, without either supply control or demand expansion, apricot growers' income will not be stabilized. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we estimated the short-run and long-run elasticities of the Somalian exports using the techniques of co-integration and error correction. The model was estimated for banana and livestock exports using annual data for the period 1967-1987. The results obtained provide evidence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between the Somalian exports and its major determinants. The error correction predicts the adjustment of the variables to their long-run equilibrium value reasonably well, but there is a substantial variation in the adjustment speed across commodities. Our results suggest that the Somalian exports are largely explained by the foreign income and are less sensitive to relative prices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]