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The response of the hydrological cycle to climate forcings can be understood within the atmospheric energy budget framework. In this study precipitation and energy budget responses to five forcing agents are analyzed using 10 climate models from the Precipitation Driver Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP). Precipitation changes are split into a forcing-dependent fast response and a temperature-driven hydrological sensitivity. Globally, when normalized by top-of-atmosphere (TOA) forcing, fast precipitation changes are most sensitive to strongly absorbing drivers (CO2, black carbon). However, over land fast precipitation changes are most sensitive to weakly absorbing drivers (sulfate, solar) and are linked to rapid circulation changes. Despite this, land-mean fast responses to CO2 and black carbon exhibit more intermodel spread. Globally, the hydrological sensitivity is consistent across forcings, mainly associated with increased longwave cooling, which is highly correlated with intermodel spread. The land-mean hydrological sensitivity is weaker, consistent with limited moisture availability. The PDRMIP results are used to construct a simple model for land-mean and sea-mean precipitation change based on sea surface temperature change and TOA forcing. The model matches well with CMIP5 ensemble mean historical and future projections, and is used to understand the contributions of different drivers. During the twentieth century, temperature-driven intensification of land-mean precipitation has been masked by fast precipitation responses to anthropogenic sulfate and volcanic forcing, consistent with the small observed trend. However, as projected sulfate forcing decreases, and warming continues, land-mean precipitation is expected to increase more rapidly, and may become clearly observable by the mid-twenty-first century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Future projections of east Amazonian precipitation indicate drying, but they are uncertain and poorly understood. In this study we analyze the Amazonian precipitation response to individual atmospheric forcings using a number of global climate models. Black carbon is found to drive reduced precipitation over the Amazon due to temperature‐driven circulation changes, but the magnitude is uncertain. CO2 drives reductions in precipitation concentrated in the east, mainly due to a robustly negative, but highly variable in magnitude, fast response. We find that the physiological effect of CO2 on plant stomata is the dominant driver of the fast response due to reduced latent heating and also contributes to the large model spread. Using a simple model, we show that CO2 physiological effects dominate future multimodel mean precipitation projections over the Amazon. However, in individual models temperature‐driven changes can be large, but due to little agreement, they largely cancel out in the model mean. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article focuses on the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project's (PDRMIP) protocol and preliminary results. The fast precipitation response is more complex due to the changes in atmospheric circulation. Rapid circulation changes in response to forcing are related with the change in atmospheric absorption, as well as the rapid land surface response.

Sea-salt aerosols proposed for injection in marine cloud brightening geoengineering would likely result from evaporation of sea-water droplets. Previous simulations have omitted this mechanism. Using the WRF/Chem model (Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry) in large-eddy simulation mode, we find that droplet evaporation creates cold pools, suppressing initial aerosol plume heights by up to 30% (40 m). This lessens cloud albedo increases from 94.1 to 88.5% in our weakly-precipitating case and from 4.3 to 1.4% for daytime injection into our nonprecipitating case (cloud albedo differences of 0.012 and 0.009, respectively). Inclusion of this effect in future modelling would allow increasingly realistic effectiveness estimates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in outgoing radiation are both a consequence and a cause of changes in the earth's temperature. Spencer and Braswell recently showed that in a simple box model for the earth the regression of outgoing radiation against surface temperature gave a slope that differed from the model's true feedback parameter. They went on to select input parameters for the box model based on observations, computed the difference for those conditions, and asserted that there is a significant bias for climate studies. This paper shows that Spencer and Braswell overestimated the difference. Differences between the regression slope and the true feedback parameter are significantly reduced when 1) a more realistic value for the ocean mixed layer depth is used, 2) a corrected standard deviation of outgoing radiation is used, and 3) the model temperature variability is computed over the same time interval as the observations. When all three changes are made, the difference between the slope and feedback parameter is less than one-tenth of that estimated by Spencer and Braswell. Absolute values of the difference for realistic cases are less than 0.05 W m−2 K−1, which is not significant for climate studies that employ regressions of outgoing radiation against temperature. Previously published results show that the difference is negligible in the Hadley Centre Slab Climate Model, version 3 (HadSM3). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is an ongoing important debate about the role of water vapour in climate change. Predictions of future climate change depend strongly on the magnitude of the water vapour feedback and until now models have almost exclusively been relied upon to quantify this feedback. In this work we employ observations of water vapour changes, together with detailed radiative calculations to estimate the water vapour feedback for the case of the Mt. Pinatubo eruption. We then compare our observed estimate with that calculated from a relatively large ensemble of simulations from a complex coupled climate model. We calculate an observed water vapour feedback parameter of -1.6 Wm-2 K-1, with uncertainty placing the feedback parameter between -0.9 to -2.5 Wm-2 K-1. The uncertain is principally from natural climate variations that contaminate the volcanic cooling. The observed estimates are consistent with that found in the climate model, with the ensemble average model feedback parameter being -2.0 Wm-2 K-1, with a 5-95% range of -0.4 to -3.6 Wm-2 K-1 (as in the case of the observations, the spread is due to an inability to separate the forced response from natural variability). However, in both the upper troposphere and Southern Hemisphere the observed model water vapour response differs markedly from the observations. The observed range represents a 40%-400% increase in the magnitude of surface temperature change when compared to a fixed water vapour response and is in good agreement with values found in other studies. Variability, both in the observed value and in the climate model’s feedback parameter, between different ensemble members, suggests that the long-term water vapour feedback associated with global climate change could still be a factor of 2 or 3 different than the mean observed value found here and the model water vapour feedback could be quite different from this value; although a small water vapour feedback appears unlikely. We also discuss where in the atmosphere water vapour changes have their largest effect on surface climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rapid adjustments--the response of meteorology to external forcing while sea surface temperatures (SST) and sea ice are held fixed--can affect the midlatitude circulation and contribute to long-term forced circulation responses in climate simulations. This study examines rapid adjustments in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) circulation using nine models from the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP), which perform fixed SST and coupled ocean experiments for five perturbations: a doubling of carbon dioxide (2xCO2), a tripling of methane (3xCH4), a fivefold increase in sulfate aerosol (5xSO4), a tenfold increase in black carbon aerosol (10xBC), and a 2%increase in solar constant (2%Sol). In the coupled experiments, the SH eddy-driven jet shifts poleward and strengthens for forcings that produce global warming (and vice versa for 5xSO4), with the strongest response found in austral summer. In austral winter, the responses project more strongly onto a change in jet strength. For 10xBC, which induces strong shortwave absorption, the multimodel mean (MMM) rapid adjustment in DJF jet latitude is ;75% of the change in the coupled simulations. For the other forcings, which induce larger SST changes, the effect of SST-mediated feedbacks on the SH circulation is larger than the rapid adjustment. Nevertheless, for these perturbations the magnitude of the MMM jet shift due to the rapid adjustment is still around 20%-30% of that in the coupled experiments. The results demonstrate the need to understand the mechanisms for rapid adjustments in the midlatitude circulation, in addition to the effect of changing SSTs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The IPCC's scientific assessment of the timing of net‐zero emissions and 2030 emission reduction targets consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C or 2°C rests on large scenario databases. Updates to this assessment, such as between the IPCC's Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C (SR1.5) of warming and the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), are the result of intertwined, sometimes opaque, factors. Here we isolate one factor: the Earth System Model emulators used to estimate the global warming implications of scenarios. We show that warming projections using AR6‐calibrated emulators are consistent, to within around 0.1°C, with projections made by the emulators used in SR1.5. The consistency is due to two almost compensating changes: the increase in assessed historical warming between SR1.5 (based on AR5) and AR6, and a reduction in projected warming due to improved agreement between the emulators' response to emissions and the assessment to which it is calibrated. Plain Language Summary: The IPCC's latest physical science report, the Working Group 1 Contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), was released in August 2021. That report includes an update to the tools used to project the climate outcome of emission scenarios. Here we apply these newly calibrated tools, called earth system model emulators, to the set of scenarios assessed in the IPCC's Special Report on warming of 1.5°C (SR1.5). We find that two compensating changes lead to a remarkable consistency (peak warming projections within 0.1°C) between the projections made by the emulators used in SR1.5 and their descendants used in AR6. First, updates to the historical warming assessment since the SR1.5 (which was based on the IPCC's 2013 physical science report (AR5)) increase future warming projections. However, improved consistency between the emulators and the assessment of the underlying physics, particularly the short‐term warming response to emissions, lowers warming projections by an approximately equivalent amount. Our work reinforces the key messages from the IPCC: limiting warming to around 1.5°C is a great and urgent challenge, and it is up to us to decide whether we pull out all the stops to hold temperatures around 1.5°C or whether we sail on by. Key Points: Emulators used in IPCC Special Report on warming of 1.5°C and Sixth Assessment Report are remarkably consistent, despite their entirely new calibrationsThe consistency is due to two compensating factors: change in assessed historical warming and improvements to emulator calibration methods [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate model emulators are widely used to generate temperature projections for climate scenarios, including in the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report. Here we evaluate the performance of a two‐layer energy balance model in emulating historical and future temperature projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models. We find that emulation errors can be large (>0.5°C for SSP2‐4.5) and differ markedly between climate models, forcing scenarios and time periods. Errors arise in emulating the near‐surface temperature response to both greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing; in some periods the errors due to these forcings oppose one another, giving the spurious impression of better emulator performance. Climate feedbacks are assumed constant in the emulator, introducing time‐varying or state dependent feedbacks may reduce prediction errors. Close emulations can be produced for a given period but, crucially, this does not guarantee reliable emulations of other scenarios and periods. Therefore, rigorous out‐of‐sample evaluation is necessary to characterize emulator performance. Plain Language Summary: Complex climate models are state‐of‐the‐art tools used to produce projections of future climate but they are expensive and take a long time to run. Climate model emulators are simple statistical or physically based models that can aim to reproduce the response of complex climate models to a prescribed climate change scenario at lower cost and more quickly. In this study, we use a climate model emulator to reproduce simulations of twentieth and twenty‐first century temperatures for eight complex climate models. We show that close emulations can be produced for pre‐defined climate scenarios and time periods. Close emulations are not guaranteed, however, when the emulator is used for other climate scenarios or other periods. This is important because climate model emulators are frequently used to produce projections that are not available from complex climate models. Evaluation of climate model emulators and characterization of their uncertainties, therefore, should use data not used in the calibration of the emulator. Key Points: Emulators of global surface temperature calibrated to individual climate models can generate large errors in past and future predictionsEmulation errors are not systematically related to emulator parameters and vary between climate models meaning they cannot be predictedRigorous out‐of‐sample evaluation is necessary to characterize emulator performance [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

If the chemistry essential to life was present in water-containing environments on Mars, the processes that led to life on Earth may have also occurred on the red planet. Phosphate is one of the chemical nutrients thought to be essential for life and is also considered critical to reactions that may have led to life on Earth. However, low prebiotic availability of phosphate may have been a complicating factor in terrestrial abiogenesis, suggesting that a similar hurdle may have confronted the development of life on Mars. Phosphate available for biological reactions can be introduced into aqueous environments through dissolution of primary phosphate minerals during water-rock interactions, but little is known about the dissolution of the dominant phosphate minerals found in martian meteorites and presumably on Mars. Here we present dissolution rates, phosphate release rates and solubilities of phosphate minerals found in martian rocks as determined from laboratory measurements. Our experimental findings predict phosphate release rates during water-rock interactions on Mars that are as much as 45 times higher than on Earth and phosphate concentrations of early wet martian environments more than twice those of Earth. We suggest that available phosphate may have mitigated one of the hurdles to abiogenesis on Mars. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID‐19 pandemic led to dramatic changes in economic activity in 2020. We use estimates of emission changes for 2020 in two Earth System Models (ESMs) to simulate the impacts of the COVID‐19 economic changes. Ensembles of nudged simulations are used to separate small signals from meteorological variability. Reductions in aerosol and precursor emissions, chiefly black carbon and sulfate (SO4), led to reductions in total anthropogenic aerosol cooling through aerosol‐cloud interactions. The average overall Effective Radiative Forcing (ERF) peaks at +0.29 ± 0.15 Wm−2 in spring 2020. Changes in cloud properties are smaller than observed changes during 2020. Impacts of these changes on regional land surface temperature range up to +0.3 K. The peak impact of these aerosol changes on global surface temperature is very small (+0.03 K). However, the aerosol changes are the largest contribution to radiative forcing and temperature changes as a result of COVID‐19 affected emissions, larger than ozone, CO2 and contrail effects. Plain Language Summary: The COVID‐19 pandemic changed emissions of gases and particulates. These gases and particulates affect climate. In general, human emissions of particles cool the planet by scattering away sunlight in the clear sky and by making clouds brighter to reflect sunlight away from the earth. This paper focuses on understanding how changes to emissions of particulates (aerosols) affect climate. We use estimates of emissions changes for 2020 in two climate models to simulate the impacts of the COVID‐19 induced emission changes. We tightly constrain the models by forcing the winds to match observed winds for 2020. COVID‐19 induced lockdowns led to reductions in aerosol and precursor emissions, chiefly soot or black carbon and sulfate (SO4). This is found to reduce the human caused aerosol cooling: creating a small net warming effect on the earth in spring 2020. Changes in cloud properties are smaller than observed changes during 2020. The impact of these changes on regional land surface temperature is small (maximum +0.3 K). The impact of aerosol changes on global surface temperature is very small and lasts over several years. However, the aerosol changes are the largest contribution to COVID‐19 affected emissions induced radiative forcing and temperature changes, larger than ozone, CO2 and contrail effects. Key Points: COVID‐19 induced lockdowns significantly altered emissions of aerosols, leading to simulated changes in cloud properties in two Earth System ModelsAerosol Cloud Interactions from reduced emissions result in significant increases in radiative forcing, up to +0.29 ± 0.15 Wm−2Aerosol radiative forcing reductions are the largest contributor to surface temperature changes [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We assess evidence relevant to Earth's equilibrium climate sensitivity per doubling of atmospheric CO2, characterized by an effective sensitivity S. This evidence includes feedback process understanding, the historical climate record, and the paleoclimate record. An S value lower than 2 K is difficult to reconcile with any of the three lines of evidence. The amount of cooling during the Last Glacial Maximum provides strong evidence against values of S greater than 4.5 K. Other lines of evidence in combination also show that this is relatively unlikely. We use a Bayesian approach to produce a probability density function (PDF) for S given all the evidence, including tests of robustness to difficult-to-quantify uncertainties and different priors. The 66% range is 2.6-3.9 K for our Baseline calculation and remains within 2.3-4.5 K under the robustness tests; corresponding 5-95% ranges are 2.3-4.7 K, bounded by 2.0-5.7 K (although such high-confidence ranges should be regarded more cautiously). This indicates a stronger constraint on S than reported in past assessments, by lifting the low end of the range. This narrowing occurs because the three lines of evidence agree and are judged to be largely independent and because of greater confidence in understanding feedback processes and in combining evidence. We identify promising avenues for further narrowing the range in S, in particular using comprehensive models and process understanding to address limitations in the traditional forcing-feedback paradigm for interpreting past changes. Plain Language Summary Earth's global "climate sensitivity" is a fundamental quantitative measure of the susceptibility of Earth's climate to human influence. A landmark report in 1979 concluded that it probably lies between 1.5°C and 4.5°C per doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide, assuming that other influences on climate remain unchanged. In the 40 years since, it has appeared difficult to reduce this uncertainty range. In this report we thoroughly assess all lines of evidence including some new developments. We find that a large volume of consistent evidence now points to a more confident view of a climate sensitivity near the middle or upper part of this range. In particular, it now appears extremely unlikely that the climate sensitivity could be low enough to avoid substantial climate change (well in excess of 2°C warming) under a high-emission future scenario. We remain unable to rule out that the sensitivity could be above 4.5°C per doubling of carbon dioxide levels, although this is not likely. Continued research is needed to further reduce the uncertainty, and we identify some of the more promising possibilities in this regard. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atmospheric aerosols such as sulfate and black carbon (BC) generate inhomogeneous radiative forcing and can affect precipitation in distinct ways compared to greenhouse gases (GHGs). Their regional effects on the atmospheric energy budget and circulation can be important for understanding and predicting global and regional precipitation changes, which act on top of the background GHG-induced hydrological changes. Under the framework of the Precipitation Driver Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP), multiple models were used for the first time to simulate the influence of regional (Asian and European) sulfate and BC forcing on global and regional precipitation. The results show that, as in the case of global aerosol forcing, the global fast precipitation response to regional aerosol forcing scales with global atmospheric absorption, and the slow precipitation response scales with global surface temperature response. Asian sulfate aerosols appear to be a stronger driver of global temperature and precipitation change compared to European aerosols, but when the responses are normalized by unit radiative forcing or by aerosol burden change, the picture reverses, with European aerosols being more efficient in driving global change. The global apparent hydrological sensitivities of these regional forcing experiments are again consistent with those for corresponding global aerosol forcings found in the literature. However, the regional responses and regional apparent hydrological sensitivities do not align with the corresponding global values. Through a holistic approach involving analysis of the energy budget combined with exploring changes in atmospheric dynamics, we provide a framework for explaining the global and regional precipitation responses to regional aerosol forcing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main goal of the Paris Agreement as stated in Article 2 is 'holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C'. Article 4 points to this long-term goal and the need to achieve 'balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases'. This statement on 'greenhouse gas balance' is subject to interpretation, and clarifications are needed to make it operational for national and international climate policies. We study possible interpretations from a scientific perspective and analyse their climatic implications. We clarify how the implications for individual gases depend on the metrics used to relate them. We show that the way in which balance is interpreted, achieved and maintained influences temperature outcomes. Achieving and maintaining net-zero CO2-equivalent emissions conventionally calculated using GWP100 (100-year global warming potential) and including substantial positive contributions from short-lived climate-forcing agents such as methane would result in a sustained decline in global temperature. A modified approach to the use of GWP100 (that equates constant emissions of short-lived climate forcers with zero sustained emission of CO2) results in global temperatures remaining approximately constant once net-zero CO2-equivalent emissions are achieved and maintained. Our paper provides policymakers with an overview of issues and choices that are important to determine which approach is most appropriate in the context of the Paris Agreement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We show that a Tc2O5 molecular species is the likely identity of an unknown volatile oxide which has remained uncharacterized for 50+ years. Exploration of this molecule's absorption spectra and intermolecular self-interactions provides a close match to experimental data and an explanation for volatility and resistance to crystallization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Limiting global warming to 1.5 or 2.0°C requires strong mitigation of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Concurrently, emissions of anthropogenic aerosols will decline, due to coemission with GHG, and measures to improve air quality. However, the combined climate effect of GHG and aerosol emissions over the industrial era is poorly constrained. Here we show the climate impacts from removing present‐day anthropogenic aerosol emissions and compare them to the impacts from moderate GHG‐dominated global warming. Removing aerosols induces a global mean surface heating of 0.5–1.1°C, and precipitation increase of 2.0–4.6%. Extreme weather indices also increase. We find a higher sensitivity of extreme events to aerosol reductions, per degree of surface warming, in particular over the major aerosol emission regions. Under near‐term warming, we find that regional climate change will depend strongly on the balance between aerosol and GHG forcing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The effect of anthropogenic aerosols on cloud droplet concentrations and radiative properties is the source of one of the largest uncertainties in the radiative forcing of climate over the industrial period. This uncertainty affects our ability to estimate how sensitive the climate is to greenhouse gas emissions. Here we perform a sensitivity analysis on a global model to quantify the uncertainty in cloud radiative forcing over the industrial period caused by uncertainties in aerosol emissions and processes. Our results show that 45 per cent of the variance of aerosol forcing since about 1750 arises from uncertainties in natural emissions of volcanic sulphur dioxide, marine dimethylsulphide, biogenic volatile organic carbon, biomass burning and sea spray. Only 34 per cent of the variance is associated with anthropogenic emissions. The results point to the importance of understanding pristine pre-industrial-like environments, with natural aerosols only, and suggest that improved measurements and evaluation of simulated aerosols in polluted present-day conditions will not necessarily result in commensurate reductions in the uncertainty of forcing estimates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate and reliable predictions and an understanding of future changes in the stratosphere are major aspects of the subject of climate change. Simulating the interaction between chemistry and climate is of particular importance, because continued increases in greenhouse gases and a slow decrease in halogen loading are expected. These both influence the abundance of stratospheric ozone. In recent years a number of coupled chemistry–climate models (CCMs) with different levels of complexity have been developed. They produce a wide range of results concerning the timing and extent of ozone-layer recovery. Interest in reducing this range has created a need to address how the main dynamical, chemical, and physical processes that determine the long-term behavior of ozone are represented in the models and to validate these model processes through comparisons with observations and other models. A set of core validation processes structured around four major topics (transport, dynamics, radiation, and stratospheric chemistry and microphysics) has been developed. Each process is associated with one or more model diagnostics and with relevant datasets that can be used for validation. This approach provides a coherent framework for validating CCMs and can be used as a basis for future assessments. Similar efforts may benefit other modeling communities with a focus on earth science research as their models increase in complexity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rapid adjustments are responses to forcing agents that cause a perturbation to the top of atmosphere energy budget but are uncoupled to changes in surface warming. Different mechanisms are responsible for these adjustments for a variety of climate drivers. These remain to be quantified in detail. It is shown that rapid adjustments reduce the effective radiative forcing (ERF) of black carbon by half of the instantaneous forcing, but for CO2 forcing, rapid adjustments increase ERF. Competing tropospheric adjustments for CO2 forcing are individually significant but sum to zero, such that the ERF equals the stratospherically adjusted radiative forcing, but this is not true for other forcing agents. Additional experiments of increase in the solar constant and increase in CH4 are used to show that a key factor of the rapid adjustment for an individual climate driver is changes in temperature in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. Plain Language Summary: Long‐term global warming can be estimated with knowledge of how climate forcing agents affect the Earth's top‐of‐atmosphere energy imbalance or effective radiative forcing. Changes in climate forcers, such as greenhouse gases, the Sun's intensity, or emission of aerosol particles, typically impose a direct change in the energy budget, termed an instantaneous radiative forcing. Further to this, a climate forcer may induce changes in the atmosphere, such as a change in thermal structure, clouds, or humidity. These changes themselves, termed rapid adjustments, contribute to the top‐of‐atmosphere energy budget. Together, the instantaneous radiative forcing plus rapid adjustments equals the effective radiative forcing. We show that for different climate forcing agents, the rapid adjustments behave very differently and are driven by different atmospheric mechanisms. For example, rapid adjustments add to the instantaneous forcing for a carbon dioxide increase, due to a cooling of the stratosphere, but oppose instantaneous forcing for black carbon, driven by a warming troposphere and lowering of cloud height. Understanding rapid adjustments gives a more complete picture of the climate effects of different climate forcers. Key Points: Rapid adjustments affect the Earth's energy balance in different ways for greenhouse gas, aerosol, and solar forcingRadiative kernels and partial radiative perturbations are used to diagnose rapid adjustments from atmospheric and cloud changesNoncloud adjustments agree well between models, whereas cloud adjustments exhibit more spread [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]