Search

This paper presents FALL3D-8.0, the last version release of an open-source code with 15+ years of track record and a growing number of users in the volcanological and atmospheric communities. The code has been redesigned and rewritten from scratch in the framework of the EU Centre of Excellence for Exascale in Solid Earth (ChEESE) in order to overcome legacy issues and allow for successive optimisations in the preparation of the code towards extreme-scale computing. However, this baseline version already contains substantial improvements in terms of model physics, solving algorithms, and code accuracy and performance. The code, originally conceived for atmospheric dispersal and deposition of tephra particles, has been extended to model other types of particles, aerosols and radionuclides. The solving strategy has also been changed, replacing the former central-difference scheme for a high-resolution central-upwind scheme derived from finite volumes, which minimises numerical diffusion even in the presence of sharp concentration gradients and discontinuities. The parallelisation strategy, input/output (I/O), model pre-process workflows and memory management have also been reconsidered, leading to substantial improvements on code scalability, efficiency and overall capability to handle much larger problems. All these new features and improvements have implications on operational model performance and allow, among others, adding data assimilation and ensemble forecast in future releases. This paper details the FALL3D-8.0 model physics and the numerical implementation of the code. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This manuscript presents FALL3D-8.0, the last version release of an open-source code with 15+ years of track record and a growing number of users in the volcanological and atmospheric communities. The code has been redesigned and rewritten from scratch in the framework of the EU Center of Excellence for Exascale in Solid Earth (ChEESE) in order to overcome legacy issues and allow for successive optimisations that are already planned in the preparation of the code towards extreme-scale computing. However, this baseline version already contains substantial improvements in terms of model physics, solving algorithms, and code accuracy and performance. The code, originally conceived for atmospheric dispersal and deposition of tephra particles, has been extended to model other types of particles, aerosols and radionuclides. The solving strategy has also been changed, replacing the former central-differences scheme for a high-resolution central-upwind scheme derived from finite volumes, which minimises numerical diffusion even in presence of sharp concentration gradients and discontinuities. The parallelisation strategy, Input/Output (I/O), model pre-process workflows and memory management have also been reconsidered, leading to substantial improvements on code scalability, efficiency, and overall capability to handle much larger problems. This paper details the FALL3D-8.0 model physics and the numerical implementation of the code. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The performance and scalability of atmospheric transport models on high performance computing environments is often far from optimal for multiple reasons including, for example, sequential input and output, synchronous communications, work unbalance, memory access latency or lack of task overlapping. We investigate how different software optimizations and porting to non general-purpose hardware architectures improve code scalability and execution times considering, as an example, the FALL3D volcanic ash transport model. To this purpose, we implement the FALL3D model equations in the WARIS framework, a software designed from scratch to solve in a parallel and efficient way different geoscience problems on a wide variety of architectures. In addition, we consider further improvements in WARIS such as hybrid MPI-OMP parallelization, spatial blocking, auto-tuning and thread affinity. Considering all these aspects together, the FALL3D execution times for a realistic test case running on general-purpose cluster architectures (Intel Sandy Bridge) decrease by a factor between 7 and 40 depending on the grid resolution. Finally, we port the application to Intel Xeon Phi (MIC) and NVIDIA GPUs (CUDA) accelerator-based architectures and compare performance, cost and power consumption on all the architectures. Implications on time-constrained operational model configurations are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The progress in data assimilation techniques that incorporate weather observations into high-resolution numerical weather prediction models is challenging because of handling surface data in terrain misrepresentation, balance approximations, instrument errors and sensor representativeness. In the framework of operational numerical weather prediction, two data assimilation systems are compared using conventional observations from surface Automatic Weather Stations (AWS), a three-dimensional variational analysis (3DVAR) and the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS). The goal is to study the ability of these two systems to assimilate data from AWS and to assess which performs better for near-surface wind and temperature fields to initialize a short-range 1-km resolution forecast with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Results show that the 3DVAR assimilation patterns are unrealistic given the inhomogeneous nature of the near-surface fields in complex terrains. In contrast, LAPS analyses show a heterogeneous assimilation pattern, more consistent with the complexity of the terrain and the observations. During the model spin-up period, simulations initialized using both data assimilation methods approach rapidly the control simulation, initialized without assimilation. However, the 1 km resolution forecasts initialized with LAPS exhibit a significant improvement, particularly for the wind field module. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present a methodology to estimate the impacts of volcanic ash dispersal on civil aviation and a software tool aimed at assisting air traffic management in the event of ash-contaminated airspace. The tool merges atmospheric dispersal model forecasts with air traffic data in a map-based platform to produce tables and maps showing potentially affected airports, flights and airspace sectors. Impacts can be estimated based on user-defined ash concentration thresholds, or on the amount of ash potentially ingested by airplanes flying through diluted ash clouds. The impact can be assessed on single Flight Level (FL) slabs, or across the whole vertical airspace. The procedure is automated within a Geographical Information System (GIS). For illustrative purposes, we estimate the potential impacts on the European air traffic of an eruption from Katla volcano in Iceland, assuming a “worst-case” meteorological scenario. We compare the capabilities of the tool with those of similar existing software and justify our design choices. Finally, we discuss the use of the tool in current and future air traffic management strategies during explosive volcanic eruptions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Long-range dispersal of volcanic ash can disrupt civil aviation over large areas, as occurred during the 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland. Here we assess the hazard for civil aviation posed by volcanic ash from a potential violent Strombolian eruption of Somma-Vesuvius, the most likely scenario if eruptive activity resumed at this volcano. A Somma-Vesuvius eruption is of concern for two main reasons: (1) there is a high probability (38 %) that the eruption will be violent Strombolian, as this activity has been common in the most recent period of activity (between AD 1631 and 1944); and (2) violent Strombolian eruptions typically last longer than higher-magnitude events (from 3 to 7 days for the climactic phases) and, consequently, are likely to cause prolonged air traffic disruption (even at large distances if a substantial amount of fine ash is produced such as is typical during Vesuvius eruptions). We compute probabilistic hazard maps for airborne ash concentration at relevant flight levels using the FALL3D ash dispersal model and a statistically representative set of meteorological conditions. Probabilistic hazard maps are computed for two different ash concentration thresholds, 2 and 0.2 mg/m, which correspond, respectively, to the no-fly and enhanced procedure conditions defined in Europe during the Eyjafjallajökull eruption. The seasonal influence of ash dispersal is also analysed by computing seasonal maps. We define the persistence of ash in the atmosphere as the time that a concentration threshold is exceeded divided by the total duration of the eruption (here the eruption phase producing a sustained eruption column). The maps of averaged persistence give additional information on the expected duration of the conditions leading to flight disruption at a given location. We assess the impact that a violent Strombolian eruption would have on the main airports and aerial corridors of the Central Mediterranean area, and this assessment can help those who devise procedures to minimise the impact of these long-lasting low-intensity volcanic events on civil aviation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: During the eruption of Eyjafjallajökull on Iceland in April/May 2010, air traffic over Europe was repeatedly interrupted because of volcanic ash in the atmosphere. This completely unusual situation in Europe leads to the demand of improved crisis management, e.g. European wide regulations of volcanic ash thresholds and improved ash dispersion forecasts. However, the quality of the forecast of fine volcanic ash concentrations in the atmosphere depends to a great extent on a realistic description of the erupted mass flux of fine ash particles, which is rather uncertain. Numerous aerosol measurements (ground based and satellite remote sensing, and in-situ measurements) all over Europe tracked the volcanic ash clouds during the eruption of Eyjafjallajökull offering the possibility for an interdisciplinary effort between volcanologists and aerosol researchers to analyse the release and dispersion of fine volcanic ash in order to better understand the needs for realistic volcanic ash forecasts. In this introductory paper, we provide a general introduction into magma fragmentation processes during explosive volcanic eruptions, describe the evolution of the eruption of Eyjafjallajökull, present the possibilities of ground based in-situ and remote measurements and numerical model studies of volcanic ash and summarise open questions and future directions. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

As a result of the serious consequences of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption (Iceland) on civil aviation, 52 volcanologists, meteorologists, atmospheric dispersion modellers and space and ground-based monitoring specialists from 12 different countries (including representatives from 6 Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres and related institutions) gathered to discuss the needs of the ash dispersal modelling community, investigate new data-acquisition strategies (i.e. quantitative measurements and observations) and discuss how to improve communication between the research community and institutions with an operational mandate. Based on a dedicated benchmark exercise and on 3 days of in-depth discussion, recommendations have been made for future model improvements, new strategies of ash cloud forecasting, multidisciplinary data acquisition and more efficient communication between different communities. Issues addressed in the workshop include ash dispersal modelling, uncertainty, ensemble forecasting, combining dispersal models and observations, sensitivity analysis, model variability, data acquisition, pre-eruption forecasting, first simulation and data assimilation, research priorities and new communication strategies to improve information flow and operational routines. As a main conclusion, model developers, meteorologists, volcanologists and stakeholders need to work closely together to develop new and improved strategies for ash dispersal forecasting and, in particular, to: (1) improve the definition of the source term, (2) design models and forecasting strategies that can better characterize uncertainties, (3) explore and identify the best ensemble strategies that can be adapted to ash dispersal forecasting, (4) identify optimized strategies for the combination of models and observations and (5) implement new critical operational strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Examines the ground deformation in a viscoelastic medium. Computation of numerical solutions for an axisymmetric extended source; Determination of analytical solutions for a point source using the dislocation theory and the propagator matrix technique; Assessment on the correspondence principle of linear viscoelasticity.

Resuspension of pyroclastic deposits occurs under specific atmospheric and environmental conditions and typically prolongs and exacerbates the impact associated with the primary emplacement of tephra fallout and pyroclastic density current deposits. An accurate forecasting of the phenomenon, to support Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers (VAACs) and civil aviation management, depends on adapting volcanic ash transport and dispersion models to include specific ash emission schemes. Few studies have attempted to model the mechanisms of emission and transport of windblown volcanic ash, and a systematic study of observed cases has not been carried out yet. This manuscript combines numerical simulations along with a variety of observational data to examine the general features of ash resuspension events in northern Patagonia following the 2011 Cordón Caulle eruption (Chile). The associated outcomes provide new insights into the spatial distribution of sources, frequency of events, transport patterns, seasonal and diurnal variability, and spatio-temporal distribution of airborne ash. A novel modelling approach based on the coupling between Advanced Research core of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) and FALL3D models is presented, with various model improvements that allow overcoming some limitations in previous ash resuspension studies. Outcomes show the importance of integrating source information based on field measurements (e.g., deposit grain size distribution and particle density). We provide evidence of a strong diurnal and seasonal variability associated with the ash resuspension activity in Patagonia. According to the modelled emission fluxes, ash resuspension activity was found to be significantly more intense during daytime hours. Satellite observations and numerical simulations strongly suggest that major emission sources of resuspended ash were distributed across distal areas (>100 km from the vent) of the Patagonian steppe, covered by a thin layer of fine ash. The importance of realistic soil moisture data to properly model the spatial distribution of emission sources is also highlighted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

FALL3D-8.0 is the new release of the FALL3D model (Folch et al., 2009;doi:10.1016/j.cageo.2008.08.008), a three-dimensional time-dependent Eulerian model foratmospheric transport and deposition based on the advection–diffusion–sedimentationequation (Folch et al., 2009; doi:10.1016/j.cageo.2008.08.008). The model upgradeincorporates dramatic improvements both in terms of physics and numerical algorithms andperformance. In terms of model physics, the original tephra transport model has beenextended to include mineral dust, radionuclides, and chemistry of SO2. Besides theexisting models describing phenomena such as particle resuspension, volcanic plumes,gravity spreading in the umbrella region, particle size distribution, and particleaggregation, different new parameterizations have also been introduced in order todescribe eddy diffusivity, dry and wet deposition, and transport of radionuclides.In terms of numerical algorithms and performance, FALL3D-8.0 uses a verticalσ-coordinate to better capture local terrain effects, a Runge-Kutta forth-order intime explicit scheme, and a much more efficient high-resolution central-upwindscheme (Kurganov and Tadmor, 2000; doi:10.1006/jcph.2000.6459). The MPI-basedparallelization of the code, written in FORTRAN 90, has also been reformulated in order todramatically increase its performance on Petascale machines, including a better domaindecomposition, parallel I/O, a parallel preprocess in which coupling with multiple drivingmeteorological models has been made more efficient, and a better memory management toreduce communications and improve code scalability. A few examples for differentkind of applications are presented and the improve in code performance discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A new Center of Excellence on HPC has been funded (2019-2021) under Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme to promote the use of upcoming Exascale and extreme performance computing capabilities in the area of Solid Earth. The Center of Excellence for Exascale in Solid Earth (ChEESE; https://cheese-coe.eu) will address extreme computing scientific and societal challenges by harnessing European institutions in charge of operational monitoring networks, tier-0 supercomputing centers, academia, hardware developers and third-parties from SMEs, Industry and public-governance. The scientific challenging ambition is to prepare 10 open-source flagship codes to solve Exascale problems on computational seismology, magnetohydrodynamics, physical volcanology, tsunamis, and data analysis and predictive techniques, including machine learning and predictive techniques from monitoring earthquake and volcanic activity. The codes will be optimized at both intranode level (including heterogeneous computing nodes) and internode level on heterogeneous hardware prototypes for the upcoming Exascale architectures, thereby ensuring commitment with a co-design approach. Preparation to Exascale will consider also code inter-kernel aspects of simulation workflows like data management and sharing, I/O, post-process and visualization. The ChEESE Center of Excellence builds on three pillars: pilot demonstrators, services and training. First, the project will develop pilot demonstrators for scientific challenging problems requiring of Exascale computing in alignment with the vision of European Exascale roadmaps. This includes near real-time seismic simulations and full-wave inversion, ensemble-based volcanic ash dispersal forecasts, faster than real-time tsunami simulations and physics-based hazard assessments for seismics, volcanoes and tsunamis. Second, pilots are also intended for enabling of operational services requiring of extreme HPC on urgent computing, early warning forecast of geohazards, hazard assessment and data analytics. Selected pilots will be tested in an operational environment to make them available to a broader user community. Additionally, and in collaboration with the European Plate Observing System (EPOS), ChEESE will promote and facilitate the integration of HPC services to widen the access to codes and fostering transfer of know-how to Solid Earth user communities. Finally, the third pillar of ChEESE aims at acting as a hub to foster HPC across the Solid Earth Community and related stakeholders and to provide specialised training on services and capacity building measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents model validation results for the latest version release of the FALL3D atmospheric transport model. The code has been redesigned from scratch to incorporate different categories of species and to overcome legacy issues that precluded its preparation towards extreme-scale computing. The model validation is based on the new FALL3D-8.0 test suite, which comprises a set of four real case studies that encapsulate the major features of the model; namely, the simulation of long-range fine volcanic ash dispersal, volcanic SO 2 dispersal, tephra fallout deposits and the dispersal and deposition of radionuclides. The first two test suite cases (i.e. the June 2011 Puyehue-Cordón Caulle ash cloud and the June 2019 Raikoke SO 2 cloud) are validated against geostationary satellite retrievals and demonstrate the new FALL3D data insertion scheme. The metrics used to validate the volcanic ash and SO 2 simulations are the structure, amplitude and location (SAL) metric and the figure of merit in space (FMS). The other two test suite cases (i.e. the February 2013 Mt. Etna ash cloud and associated tephra fallout deposit, and the dispersal of radionuclides resulting from the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear accident) are validated with scattered ground-based observations of deposit load and local particle grain size distributions and with measurements from the Radioactivity Environmental Monitoring database. For validation of tephra deposit loads and radionuclides, we use two variants of the normalised root-mean-square error metric. We find that FALL3D-8.0 simulations initialised with data insertion consistently improve agreement with satellite retrievals at all lead times up to 48 h for both volcanic ash and SO 2 simulations. In general, SAL scores lower than 1.5 and FMS scores greater than 0.40 indicate acceptable agreement with satellite retrievals of volcanic ash and SO 2. In addition, we show very good agreement, across several orders of magnitude, between the model and observations for the 2013 Mt. Etna and 1986 Chernobyl case studies. Our results, along with the validation datasets provided in the publicly available test suite, form the basis for future improvements to FALL3D (version 8 or later) and also allow for model intercomparison studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This manuscript presents different application cases and validation results of the latest version release of the FALL3D-8.0 model, an open-source atmospheric transport model. The code has been redesigned from scratch to incorporate different categories of species and to overcome legacy issues that precluded its preparation towards extreme-scale computing. Validation results are shown for long-range dispersal of fine volcanic ash and SO2 clouds, tephra fallout deposits and dispersal and ground deposition of radionuclides. The first two examples (i.e. the 2011 Puyehue-Cordón Caulle and 2019 Raikoke eruptions) make use of geostationary satellite retrievals for two purposes: first, to furnish an initial data insertion condition for the model; and second, to validate the time series of model outputs against the satellite retrievals. The metrics used to validate the model simulations of volcanic ash and SO2 are the Structure, Amplitude and Location (SAL) metric and the Figure of Merit in Space (FMS). The other two application cases are validated with scattered ground-based observations of deposit load and local particle grain size distributions from the 23 February 2013 Mt. Etna eruption and with measurements from the Radioactivity Environmental Monitoring (REM) database during the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear accident. Simulation results indicate that FALL3D-8.0 outperforms previous code versions both in terms of model accuracy and code performance. We also find that simulations initialised with the new data insertion scheme consistently improve agreement with satellite retrievals at all lead times out to 48 hours for both SO2 and long-range fine ash simulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Quantitative volcanic ash cloud forecasts are prone to uncertainties coming from the source term quantification (e.g., the eruption strength or vertical distribution of the emitted particles), with consequent implications for an operational ash impact assessment. We present an ensemble-based data assimilation and forecast system for volcanic ash dispersal and deposition aimed at reducing uncertainties related to eruption source parameters. The FALL3D atmospheric dispersal model is coupled with the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) data assimilation technique by combining ash mass loading observations with ash dispersal simulations in order to obtain a better joint estimation of the 3-D ash concentration and source parameters. The ETKF–FALL3D data assimilation system is evaluated by performing observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) in which synthetic observations of fine ash mass loadings are assimilated. The evaluation of the ETKF–FALL3D system, considering reference states of steady and time-varying eruption source parameters, shows that the assimilation process gives both better estimations of ash concentration and time-dependent optimized values of eruption source parameters. The joint estimation of concentrations and source parameters leads to a better analysis and forecast of the 3-D ash concentrations. The results show the potential of the methodology to improve volcanic ash cloud forecasts in operational contexts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Quantitative volcanic ash cloud forecasts are prone to uncertainties coming from the source term quantification (e.g. eruption strength or vertical distribution of the emitted particles), with consequent implications on operational ash impact assessment. We present an ensemble-based data assimilation and forecast system for volcanic ash dispersal and deposition aimed at reducing uncertainties related to eruption source parameters. The FALL3D atmospheric dispersal model is coupled with the Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (ETKF) data assimilation technique by combining ash mass loading observations with ash dispersal simulations in order to obtain a better joint estimation of 3D ash concentration and source parameters. The ETKF-FALL3D data assimilation system is evaluated performing Observation System Simulation Experiments (OSSE) in which synthetic observations of fine ash mass loadings are assimilated. The evaluation of the ETKF-FALL3D system considering reference states of steady and time-varying eruption source parameters shows that the assimilation process gives both better estimations of ash concentration and time-dependent optimized values of eruption source parameters. The joint estimation of concentrations and source parameters leads to a better analysis and forecast of the 3D ash concentrations. Results show the potential of the methodology to improve volcanic ash cloud forecasts in operational contexts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tacaná volcano is one of the dormant volcanoes in Mexico. Its activity is demonstrated by recent phreatic explosions occurred in 1949 and 1986. At least four Plinian to sub Plinian eruptions have been recorded in the eruptive history of this volcano, which produced pumice and ash deposits that blanketed a vast area straddling the Mexican and Guatemalan territory. Currently, there is no quantitative tephra hazard study of the volcano fallout deposits nor of the dispersion of ash in the atmosphere. In this work, we present the first probabilistic tephra hazard assessment for the Tacaná volcano. Probabilistic hazard maps were computed both, for the tephra deposit, and for critical thresholds of airborne ash concentration at different flight levels. The FALL3D numerical model was used to perform hazard maps for a Plinian scenario defined on the basis of the Sibinal Pumice eruption occurred ∼23.5 kyrs ago, which is the most studied deposit of this type in the volcano's surroundings, even when just few of their most distal outcrops are preserved. Results of this work show that at ground level, the disturbance for this type of hazard would affect mainly Guatemalan territory and the state of Chiapas in Mexico. It could cause serious repercussions on the economy of the region, which is characterized mainly by cocoa, coffee and banana plantations. The ash dispersion into the atmosphere could disturb the airspace and major airports in Mexican territory and neighboring countries. In fact, probability ash dispersal maps show that the level of affectation to the air traffic would involve the possible closure of at least 23 airports in Mexico, Guatemala, Belize, Honduras, El Salvador and Nicaragua. Another collateral damage would be the remobilization of ash by lahars considering the near 4000 mm of rain in average poured yearly in the Soconusco region that would increase the sediment load of the Coatán and Suchiate rivers, and then could produce a severe damage to the lowlands, which in the case of the Mexican territory, is the most populated one. • We present the first probabilistic tephra hazard assessment for Tacaná volcano. • The FALL3D code was used to compute hazard maps for a Plinian scenario at Tacaná. • We computed maps for tephra fallout deposits and ash dispersion in the atmosphere. • At ground level the fallout would be distributed over Guatemala and Mexico. • Airborne ash concentration would led to closure of 23 airports in 6 countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, there has been a growing interest in ensemble approaches for modelling the atmospheric transport of volcanic aerosol, ash, and lapilli (tephra). The development of such techniques enables the exploration of novel methods for incorporating real observations into tephra dispersal models. However, traditional data assimilation algorithms, including ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) methods, can yield suboptimal state estimates for positive-definite variables such as those related to volcanic aerosols and tephra deposits. This study proposes two new ensemble-based data assimilation techniques for semi-positive-definite variables with highly skewed uncertainty distributions, including aerosol concentrations and tephra deposit mass loading: the Gaussian with non-negative constraints (GNC) and gamma inverse-gamma (GIG) methods. The proposed methods are applied to reconstruct the tephra fallout deposit resulting from the 2015 Calbuco eruption using an ensemble of 256 runs performed with the FALL3D dispersal model. An assessment of the methodologies is conducted considering two independent datasets of deposit thickness measurements: an assimilation dataset and a validation dataset. Different evaluation metrics (e.g. RMSE, MBE, and SMAPE) are computed for the validation dataset, and the results are compared to two references: the ensemble prior mean and the EnKF analysis. Results show that the assimilation leads to a significant improvement over the first-guess results obtained from the simple ensemble forecast. The evidence from this study suggests that the GNC method was the most skilful approach and represents a promising alternative for assimilation of volcanic fallout data. The spatial distributions of the tephra fallout deposit thickness and volume according to the GNC analysis are in good agreement with estimations based on field measurements and isopach maps reported in previous studies. On the other hand, although it is an interesting approach, the GIG method failed to improve the EnKF analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, there has been a growing interest in ensemble approaches for modelling volcanic plumes. The development of such techniques enables the exploration of novel methods for incorporating real observations into tephra dispersal models. However, traditional data assimilation algorithms, including ensemble Kalman filter methods, can yield suboptimal state estimates for positive-definite variables such as volcanic aerosols and tephra deposits. This study proposes two new ensemble-based data assimilation techniques for semi-positive-definite variables with highly skewed uncertainty distributions, including aerosol concentrations and tephra deposit mass loading. The proposed methods are applied to reconstruct the tephra fallout deposit resulting from the 2015 Calbuco eruption using an ensemble of 256 runs performed with the FALL3D dispersal model. Two datasets of deposit thickness measurements are considered: an assimilation dataset including 161 observations, and a validation dataset for an independent assessment of the methods. Results show that the assimilation leads to a significant improvement over the first-guess results, obtained from the simple ensemble forecast. The spatial distribution of the tephra fallout deposit thickness and the ashfall volume according to the analyses are in good agreement with estimations based on field measurements and isopach maps reported in previous studies. Both assimilation methods show a similar performance in terms of evaluation metrics and spatial distribution of the deposit. Finally, the potential application of the methodologies for the improvement of ash-cloud forecasts produced for operational models is also discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Long‐lasting, hybrid eruptions can be of complex description and classification, especially when associated with multiple eruptive styles and multiple products. The 2021 Tajogaite eruption of La Palma, Canary Islands, was associated with a magma‐gas decoupled system that resulted in the simultaneous emission of lava flows and tephra plumes from various vents. Even though the tephra blanket (∼2 × 107 m3) represents only 7%–16% of the total erupted volume, it provides fundamental insights into the overall eruptive dynamics. Tephra was mostly dispersed NE‐SW due to a complex regional and local wind patterns and was subdivided into 3 units and 11 layers that well correlate at different distances from the vent and with both tremor data and lava emission rate. While plume height varied at the temporal scale of a few hours, the average mass eruption rate associated with the tephra blanket of the different units remained relatively constant (∼3–4 × 103 kg s−1). In contrast, the emission rate of lava largely increased after the first week and remained higher than the overall emission of tephra throughout the whole eruption (average value of ∼6 × 104 kg s−1). Based on a detailed characterization of the tephra blanket in combination with atmospheric wind, tremor, and lava emission trend, we demonstrate the need of (a) multidisciplinary strategies for the description of hybrid eruptions that account for both the duration of individual phases and the quantification of the mass of multiple products, and of (b) dedicated ash dispersal forecasting strategies that account for the frequent variations of eruptive and atmospheric conditions. Plain Language Summary: Volcanic eruptions are mostly subdivided into effusive and explosive when they are associated with the emission of lava flows or with the fragmentation of magma that results in the generation of widespread deposits (i.e., tephra). The September–December 2021 Tajogaite eruption of La Palma Island (Spain) represents a typical example of long‐lasting, hybrid eruption with alternation, or, more often, contemporaneous emission of lava flows and tephra. The lava field extended toward the western sector of the island, while the tephra blanket was mostly dispersed NE‐SW due to a complex regional and local wind pattern. Even though the tephra blanket represents only 7%–16% of the total erupted volume, it provides fundamental insights into the overall eruptive dynamics. Based on a detailed characterization of the tephra blanket, in combination with wind, seismic tremor, and lava emission trend, we demonstrate the need of dedicated strategies for the description of hybrid, long‐lasting eruptions that account for both eruption duration and for the quantification of multiple products (tephra blanket, tephra cone, lava flows). We also show the need of dedicated strategies of short‐range ash dispersal forecasting that account for the frequent variations of eruptive and atmospheric conditions. Key Points: Tephra blanket of the 2021 Tajogaite eruption is only 7%–16% of the total volume but is key to decipher the variable eruptive dynamicsTephra blanket shows distinct layers and units at different distances from vents that well correlate with tremor and lava emission rateHybrid eruptions are best described based on both event duration and mass associated with multiple products (tephra blanket, cone, lava) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To increase the probability of detecting odour plumes, and so increase prey capture success, when winds are stable central place foraging seabirds should fly crosswind to maximize the round-trip distance covered. At present, however, there is no empirical evidence of this theoretical prediction. Here, using an extensive GPS tracking dataset, we investigate, for the first time, the foraging movements of Bulwer's petrels (Bulweria bulwerii) in the persistent North Atlantic trade winds. To test the hypotheses that, in stable winds, petrels use crosswind to maximize both the distance covered and the probability of detecting olfactory cues, we combine state-space models, generalized additive models and Gaussian plume models. Bulwer's petrels had the highest degree of selectivity for crosswinds documented to date, often leading to systematic zig-zag flights. Crosswinds maximized both the distance travelled and the probability of detecting odour plumes integrated across the round-trip (rather than at any given point along the route, which would result in energetically costly return flight). This evidence suggests that petrels plan round-trip flights at departure, integrating expected costs of homeward journeys. Our findings, which are probably true for other seabirds in similar settings, further highlight the critical role of wind in seabird foraging ecology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Impacts of explosive volcanic eruptions on civil aviation were reconsidered after the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption in Iceland, which caused unprecedented disruptions of air traffic operations in Europe. During and after the aviation breakdown of April–May 2010, communication between the involved stakeholders was recognized as a major concern. Due to the complexity and multidisciplinary nature of the topic, a great number of actors are involved, which often have little interaction outside these exceptional events. In this work, we aim at identifying the relationships between the stakeholders involved in aviation management during eruptions, as well as their needs and priorities. We perform an anonymous on-line survey, focused mainly on the use of tephra dispersal models for civil aviation purposes. We collect feedback on recent developments including our current impact assessment research, which produced a GIS-based software tool to estimate impacts on aviation based on tephra dispersal forecasts. Answers allow identifying stakeholders' requirements on ash dispersal forecasts and their use for aviation management purposes. We underline the main differences between three homogeneous groups (aviation managers and employees, modellers and field scientists, other stakeholders) and identify main end-user requirements for developing tools similar to ours. This work provides useful insights for the development of tools to support aviation stakeholders during volcanic eruptions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A new topography adapted mesh generation framework tailored to simulate Atmospheric Boundary Layer (ABL) flows on complex terrains is presented. The mesher is fully automatic given: the maximum and minimum surface mesh size, and the mesh size at the top of the ABL. The following contributions to the meshing workflow for ABL flow simulation are performed. First, we present a smooth topography modeling to query first and second-order geometry derivatives. Second, we propose a new adaptive meshing procedure to discretize the topography based on two different metrics. Third, we present the ABL mesher, featuring both prisms and tetrahedra. We extrude the triangles of the adapted surface mesh, generating prisms that reproduce the Surface Boundary Layer. Then, the rest of the domain is meshed with an unstructured tetrahedral mesh. In addition, we detail a hybrid quality optimization approach for both the surface and volume meshers, analyzing its impact on the solver for high-complexity terrains. We analyze the convergence of the triangle adaptive approach, obtaining quadratic convergence to the geometry and reducing to one-half the error for the same amount of degrees of freedom than without adaptivity and optimization. We also study the mesh convergence of our Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) solver, obtaining quadratic mesh convergence to the solution, and using a 30% of the degrees of freedom while reducing a 20% of the error of standard semi-structured approaches. Finally, we present the generated meshes and the simulation results for a complete complex topographic scenario. • Topography modeling to query first and second-order derivatives of the geometry. • Metric-driven mesh adaptation procedure for topographic scenarios. • Hybrid meshing framework for ABL flow simulation on complex topographies. • Hybrid optimization framework, detailing the impact on the RANS solver. • Analysis of the convergence to the topography geometry and to the solution. [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: El Chichón volcano, Chiapas, Mexico, erupted explosively on March 29th, 1982, after a repose period of about 550years. Amongst ten eruptive episodes documented between March 29th and April 4th, only the three that occurred on March 29th and April 4th produced significant pyroclastic tephra deposits. Here we use analytical (HAZMAP) and numerical (FALL3D) tephra transport models to reconstruct the deposits and the atmospheric plume dispersal associated with the three main fallout units of the 1982 eruption. On the basis of such a reconstruction, we produce hazard maps of tephra fallout associated to a Plinian eruption and discuss the implications of such a severe eruption scenario. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Highlights • New automatic meshing framework for Atmospheric Boundary Layer (ABL) simulation on wind farms. • Conformal hybrid meshes of the ABL, topography and actuator discs, and with smooth size transitions. • New quality-based sweeping technique to generate hexahedral ABL conformal with the topography. • Mesh sizing characterization for different turbines in offshore and onshore cases. • Quadratic mesh convergence of the solver to the quantity of interest (flow across the turbine hub). Abstract A new mesh generation process for wind farm modeling is presented together with a mesh convergence and sizing analysis for wind farm flow simulations. The generated meshes are tailored to simulate Atmospheric Boundary Layer (ABL) flows on complex terrains modeling the wind turbines as actuator discs. The wind farm mesher is fully automatic and, given the topography and the turbine characteristics (location, diameter and hub height), it generates a hybrid mesh conformal with the actuator discs and refined upwind and downstream. Moreover, it presents smooth element size transitions across scales and avoids extending high-resolution areas to all the domain. We take advantage of our automatic and robust mesher to study the mesh convergence of our RANS solver with linear elements, obtaining quadratic mesh convergence for a quantity of interest in all the tested cases. In addition, we quantify the mesh resolution at the terrain surface and at the actuator discs required to achieve a given numerical error in simulations in onshore and offshore frameworks. Finally, we present the generated meshes and the simulation results for an offshore and an onshore wind farm. We analyze in detail one particular wind direction for both cases, and for the onshore wind farm we use our automatic framework to estimate the yearly production of energy and measuring the error against the actual produced one. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tungurahua volcano, located in the central area of the Ecuadorian Sierra, is erupting intermittently since 1999 alternating between periods of quiescence and explosive activity. Volcanic ash has been the most frequent and widespread hazard provoking air contamination episodes and impacts on human health, animals and crops in the surrounding area. After two months of quiescence, Tungurahua erupted violently on 14th July 2013 generating short-lived eruptive columns rising up to 9 km above the vent characterized as a vulcanian eruption. The resulting fallout deposits were sampled daily during and after the eruptions to determine grain size distributions and perform morphological and componentry analyses. Dispersion and sedimentation of ash were simulated numerically coupling the meteorological Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) with the volcanic ash dispersion FALL3D models. The combination of field and numerical studies allowed constraining the Eruption Source Parameters (ESP) for this event, which could be used to forecast ash dispersion and deposition from future vulcanian eruptions at Tungurahua. This set of pre-defined ESP was further validated using two different eruptions, as blind test, occurring on 16th December 2012 and 1st February 2014. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Popocatépetl is one of Mexico's most active volcanoes threatening a densely populated area that includes Mexico City with more than 20 million inhabitants. The destructive potential of this volcano is demonstrated by its Late Pleistocene-Holocene eruptive activity, which has been characterized by recurrent Plinian eruptions of large magnitude, the last two of which destroyed human settlements in pre-Hispanic times. Popocatépetl's reawakening in 1994 produced a crisis that culminated with the evacuation of two villages on the northeastern flank of the volcano. Shortly after, a monitoring system and a civil protection contingency plan based on a hazard zone map were implemented. The current volcanic hazards map considers the potential occurrence of different volcanic phenomena, including pyroclastic density currents and lahars. However, no quantitative assessment of the tephra hazard, especially related to atmospheric dispersal, has been performed. The presence of airborne volcanic ash at low and jet-cruise atmospheric levels compromises the safety of aircraft operations and forces re-routing of aircraft to prevent encounters with volcanic ash clouds. Given the high number of important airports in the surroundings of Popocatépetl volcano and considering the potential threat posed to civil aviation in Mexico and adjacent regions in case of a Plinian eruption, a hazard assessment for tephra dispersal is required. In this work, we present the first probabilistic tephra dispersal hazard assessment for Popocatépetl volcano. We compute probabilistic hazard maps for critical thresholds of airborne ash concentrations at different flight levels, corresponding to the situation defined in Europe during 2010, and still under discussion. Tephra dispersal mode is performed using the FALL3D numerical model. Probabilistic hazard maps are built for a Plinian eruptive scenario defined on the basis of geological field data for the 'Ochre Pumice' Plinian eruption (4965 C yr BP). FALL3D model input eruptive parameters are constrained through an inversion method carried out with the semi-analytical HAZMAP model and are varied by sampling them using probability density functions. We analyze the influence of seasonal variations on ash dispersal and estimate the average persistence of critical ash concentrations at relevant locations and airports. This study assesses the impact that a Plinian eruption similar to the Ochre Pumice eruption would have on the main airports of Mexico and adjacent areas. The hazard maps presented here can support long-term planning that would help minimize the impacts of such an eruption on civil aviation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]