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Background: Wrist fracture is one of the common limb fractures. Its incidence rate increases with age and osteoporosis. Nowadays, Sleep health is increasingly valued, but the relationship between wrist fractures and sleep time is not yet clear. Methods: Data in this study were collected and screened from the NHANES from 2005 to 2010 and 2013 to 2014. The variables were extracted from interviews and compared between the wrist fractures and the sleep duration. The data was analyzed by weighted multivariate logistic regression. Results: After excluding individuals who were not eligible and had invalid data, we finally identified 1835 participants for inclusion in this study. We found a negative association between the sleep duration and the fractured of the wrist (OR = 1.027,95% CI (1.027, 1.028), P < 0.00001). Conclusion: This study demons that the association between the sleep duration and the fractures of the wrist is significant. Our findings provide a better understanding of the relationship between sleep duration and wrist fractures. This study may help us reducing the incidence of wrist fractures in the population based on healthy sleep management in the future, and improve the quality of life of middle-aged and elderly patients. Provide evidence for clinical patients to manage healthy sleep. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Generating spatial crop yield information is of great significance for academic research and guiding agricultural policy. Existing public yield datasets have a coarse spatial resolution, spanning from 1 to 43 km. Although these datasets are useful for analyzing large-scale temporal and spatial change in yield, they cannot deal with small-scale spatial heterogeneity, which happens to be the most significant characteristic of the Chinese farmers' economy. Hence, we generated a 30 m Chinese winter wheat yield dataset (ChinaWheatYield30m) for major winter-wheat-producing provinces in China for the period 2016–2021 with a semi-mechanistic model (hierarchical linear model, HLM). The yield prediction model was built by considering the wheat growth status and climatic factors. It can estimate wheat yield with excellent accuracy and low cost using a combination of satellite observations and regional meteorological information (i.e., Landsat 8, Sentinel 2 and ERA5 data from the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform). The results were validated using in situ measurements and census statistics and indicated a stable performance of the HLM based on calibration datasets across China, with a correlation coefficient (r) of 0.81 and a relative root mean square error (rRMSE) of 12.59 %. With regards to validation, the ChinaWheatYield30m dataset was highly consistent with in situ measurement data and statistical data (p<0.01), indicated by an r (rRMSE) of 0.72** (15.34 %) and 0.69** (19.16 %). The ChinaWheatYield30m is a sophisticated dataset with both high spatial resolution and excellent accuracy; such a dataset will provide basic knowledge of detailed wheat yield distribution, which can be applied for many purposes including crop production modeling and regional climate evaluation. The ChinaWheatYield30m dataset generated from this study can be downloaded from 10.5281/zenodo.7360753 (Zhao et al., 2022b). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: To study the feasibility and efficacy of antibiotic cement in preserving endoplants after infection in patients with early tibial plateau fracture on plate exposure. Patients and Methods: A retrospective analysis of 23 patients treated for post-operative infection with plate exposure after tibial plateau fracture between 2017 and 2021. They were divided into the observation group (10 patients) and the control group (13 patients). Total operation time, length of hospitalization, hospitalization cost, the number of surgeries, white blood cell (WBC) count, neutrophil (NEUT) count, erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), C-reactive protein (CRP), the post-operative evaluation index, and complications were observed during the follow-up period. Results: All patients were followed up for 6 to 12 months; wound healing was observed in both groups. The total operation time for patients in the control group was longer compared with the observation group. However, the length of hospitalization, hospitalization cost, and number of surgeries in the observation group were less compared with the control group. No difference in WBC, NEUT, ESR, and CRP levels was observed one day after surgery. Furthermore, WBC, NEUT, ESR, and CRP levels were higher in patients in the control group compared with the observation group 72 hours after surgery. There were no differences in the post-operative evaluation index and complications in both groups. Conclusions: The antibiotic cement coating used for treating early post-operative infection in patients with tibial plateau fracture could effectively control infection while retaining endoplant, thereby promoting wound healing. It could also reduce pain and the medical burden on patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Crop production is one of the major interactions between humans and the natural environment, in the process, carbon is translocated cyclically inside the ecosystem. Data assimilation algorithm has advantages in mechanism and robustness in yield estimation, however, the computational efficiency is still a major obstacle for widespread application. To address the issue, a novel hybrid method based on the combination of the Crop Biomass Algorithm of Wheat (CBA-Wheat) to the Simple Algorithm For Yield (SAFY) model and the transfer learning method was proposed in this paper, which enables winter wheat yield estimation with acceptable accuracy and calculation efficiency. The transfer learning techniques learn the knowledge from the SAFY model and then use the knowledge to predict wheat yield. The main results showed that: (1) The comparison using CBA-Wheat between measured AGB and predicted AGB all reveal a good correlation with R2 of 0.83 and RMSE of 1.91 t ha−1, respectively; (2) The performance of yield prediction was as follows: transfer learning method (R2 of 0.64, RMSE of 1.05 t ha−1) and data assimilation (R2 of 0.64, RMSE of 1.01 t ha−1). At the farm scale, the two yield estimation models are still similar in performance with RMSE of 1.33 t ha−1 for data assimilation and 1.13 t ha−1 for transfer learning; (3) The time consumption of transfer learning with complete simulation data set is significantly lower than that of the other two yield estimation tests. The number of pixels to be simulated was about 16,000, and the computational efficiency of the data assimilation algorithm and transfer learning without complete simulation datasets. The transfer learning model shows great potential in improving the efficiency of production estimation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rapidly developing remote sensing techniques are shedding new light on large-scale crop growth status monitoring, especially in recent applications of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). Many inversion models have been built to estimate crop growth variables. However, the present methods focused on building models for each single crop stage, and the features generally used in the models are vegetation indices (VI) or joint VI with data derived from UAV-based sensors (e.g., texture, RGB color information, or canopy height). It is obvious these models are either limited to a single stage or have an unstable performance across stages. To address these issues, this study selected four key wheat growth parameters for inversion: above-ground biomass (AGB), plant nitrogen accumulation (PNA) and concentration (PNC), and the nitrogen nutrition index (NNI). Crop data and multispectral data were acquired in five wheat growth stages. Then, the band reflectance and VI were obtained from multispectral data, along with the five stages that were recorded as phenology indicators (PIs) according to the stage of Zadok's scale. These three types of data formed six combinations (C1–C6): C1 used all of the band reflectances, C2 used all VIs, C3 used bands and VIs, C4 used bands and PIs, C5 used VIs and PIs, and C6 used bands, Vis, and PIs. Some of the combinations were integrated with PIs to verify if PIs can improve the model accuracy. Random forest (RF) was used to build models with combinations of different parameters and evaluate the feature importance. The results showed that all models of different combinations have good performance in the modeling of crop parameters, such as R2 from 0.6 to 0.79 and NRMSE from 10.51 to 15.83%. Then, the model was optimized to understand the importance of PIs. The results showed that the combinations that integrated PIs showed better estimations and the potential of using PIs to minimize features while still achieving good predictions. Finally, the varied model results were evaluated to analyze their performances in different stages or fertilizer treatments. The results showed the models have good performances at different stages or treatments (R2 > 0.6). This paper provides a reference for monitoring and estimating wheat growth parameters based on UAV multispectral imagery and phenology information. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate and rapid estimation of the crop yield is essential to precision agriculture. Critical to crop improvement, yield is a primary index for selecting excellent genotypes in crop breeding. Recently developed unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) platforms and advanced algorithms can provide powerful tools for plant breeders. Genotype category information such as the maturity group information (M) can significantly influence soybean yield estimation using remote sensing data. The objective of this study was to improve soybean yield prediction by combining M with UAV-based multi-sensor data using machine learning methods. We investigated three types of maturity groups (Early, Median and Late) of soybean, and collected the UAV-based hyperspectral and red–green–blue (RGB) images at three key growth stages. Vegetation indices (VI) and texture features (Te) were extracted and combined with M to predict yield using partial least square regression (PLSR), Gaussian process regression (GPR), random forest regression (RFR) and kernel ridge regression (KRR). The results showed that (1) the method of combining M with remote sensing data could significantly improve the estimation performances of soybean yield. (2) The combinations of three variables (VI, Te and M) gave the best estimation accuracy. Meanwhile, the flowering stage was the optimal single time point for yield estimation (R2 = 0.689, RMSE = 408.099 kg/hm2), while using multiple growth stages produced the best estimation performance (R2 = 0.700, RMSE = 400.946 kg/hm2). (3) By comparing the models constructed by different algorithms for different growth stages, it showed that the models built by GPR showed the best performances. Overall, the results of this study provide insights into soybean yield estimation based on UAV remote sensing data and maturity information. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ear height (EH) and ear–plant height ratio (ER) are important agronomic traits in maize that directly affect nutrient utilization efficiency and lodging resistance and ultimately relate to maize yield. However, challenges in executing large-scale EH and ER measurements severely limit maize breeding programs. In this paper, we propose a novel, simple method for field monitoring of EH and ER based on the relationship between ear position and vertical leaf area profile. The vertical leaf area profile was estimated from Terrestrial Laser Scanner (TLS) and Drone Laser Scanner (DLS) data by applying the voxel-based point cloud method. The method was validated using two years of data collected from 128 field plots. The main factors affecting the accuracy were investigated, including the LiDAR platform, voxel size, and point cloud density. The EH using TLS data yielded R2 = 0.59 and RMSE = 16.90 cm for 2019, R2 = 0.39 and RMSE = 18.40 cm for 2021. In contrast, the EH using DLS data had an R2 = 0.54 and RMSE = 18.00 cm for 2019, R2 = 0.46 and RMSE = 26.50 cm for 2021 when the planting density was 67,500 plants/ha and below. The ER estimated using 2019 TLS data has R2 = 0.45 and RMSE = 0.06. In summary, this paper proposed a simple method for measuring maize EH and ER in the field, the results will also offer insights into the structure-related traits of maize cultivars, further aiding selection in molecular breeding. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) is closely related to the light-reaction process and has been recognized as a good indicator for tracking gross primary productivity (GPP). Nevertheless, it has not been widely examined how SIF and GPP respond to temperature. Here, we explored the linkage mechanisms between SIF and GPP in winter wheat based on continuous measurements of canopy SIF ( c S I F ), GPP, and meteorological data. To separately explore the structural and physiological mechanisms underlying the SIF–GPP relationship, we studied the temperature responses of the estimated light use efficiency ( L U E p ), canopy-level chlorophyll fluorescence yield ( c S I F y i e l d ) and photosystem-level chlorophyll fluorescence yield ( Φ F ) estimated using canopy-scale remote sensing measurements. We found that GPP, red canopy SIF ( c S I F 688 ) and far-red canopy SIF ( c S I F 760 ) all exhibited a decreasing trend during overwintering periods. However, GPP and c S I F 688 showed relatively more obvious changes in response to air temperature ( T a ) than c S I F 760 did. In addition, the L U E p responded sensitively to T a (the correlation coefficient, r = 0.83, p-value < 0.01). The c S I F y i e l d _ 688 and Φ F _ 688 ( Φ F at 688 nm) also exhibited significantly positive correlations with T a (r > 0.7, p-value < 0.05), while c S I F y i e l d _ 760 and Φ F _ 760 ( Φ F at 760 nm) were weakly correlated with T a (r < 0.3, p-value > 0.05) during overwintering periods. The results also show that L U E p was more sensitive to T a than Φ F , which caused changes in the L U E p / Φ F ratio in response to T a . By considering the influence of T a , the GPP estimation based on the total SIF emitted at the photosystem level ( t S I F ) was improved (with R2 increased by more than 0.12 for t S I F 760 and more than 0.05 for t S I F 688 ). Therefore, our results indicate that the L U E p / Φ F ratio is affected by temperature conditions and highlights that the SIF–GPP model should consider the influence of temperature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a key functional trait, leaf photosynthetic pigment content (LPPC) plays an important role in the health status monitoring and yield estimation of apples. Hyperspectral features including vegetation indices (VIs) and derivatives are widely used in retrieving vegetation biophysical parameters. The fractional derivative spectral method shows great potential in retrieving LPPC. However, the performance of fractional derivatives and machine learning (ML) for retrieving apple LPPC still needs to be explored. The objective of this study is to test the capacity of using fractional derivative and ML methods to retrieve apple LPPC. Here, the hyperspectral data in the 400–2500 nm domains was used to calculate the fractional derivative order of 0.2–2, and then the sensitive bands were screened through feature dimensionality reduction to train ML to build the LPPC estimation model. Additionally, VIs-based ML methods and empirical regression models were developed to compare with the fractional derivative methods. The results showed that fractional derivative-driven ML methods have higher accuracy than the ML methods driven by the original spectra or vegetation index. The results also showed that the ML methods perform better than empirical regression models. Specifically, the best estimates of chlorophyll content and carotenoid content were achieved using support vector regression (SVR) at the derivative order of 0.2 (R2 = 0.78) and 0.4 (R2 = 0.75), respectively. The fractional derivative maintained a good universality in retrieving the LPPC of multiple phenological periods. Therefore, this study highlights that the fractional derivative and ML improved the estimation of apple LPPC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A hyperspectral data-processing framework was developed using Boruta and DNN. • Hyperspectral bands that can estimate the LNC of apple trees were explicitly identified. • Investigated the potential of phenological data to enhance apple LNC estimation. Rapid and accurate assessment of apple-tree leaf nitrogen content (LNC) plays an important role in smart orchards for accurate fertilization. Hyperspectral remote sensing technology provides a reliable, economical, and fast method to estimate LNC. However, high-dimensional spectral data contain redundant information that is irrelevant to the target parameters, necessitating the development of robust hyperspectral analysis techniques to estimate apple-tree LNC. Additionally, the role of phenological information in improving LNC estimates across multiple growth stages remains uncertain. The present study thus proposes a novel hyperspectral data-processing framework (Boruta-Iteration-DNN) to optimize estimates of apple-tree LNC and investigates the potential of phenological information to improve LNC estimates of multi-fertility apple trees. The proposed framework incorporates the Boruta feature-selection method for identifying important spectral bands and assessing how they affect model performance through iterative feature analysis. A deep neural network (DNN) regression model is then developed for LNC estimation. In addition, a widely used Pearson-DNN method is used for comparison to demonstrate the superiority of the proposed approach. Furthermore, the potential of incorporating phenological information (Day After Anthesis, DAA) into the estimation models is examined to evaluate its ability to better estimate LNC. The results demonstrate that the proposed framework not only enhances the accuracy of apple-tree LNC estimates with respect to the full-spectrum model (without DAA: validation R2 improved from 0.69 to 0.75, NRMSE reduced from 11.92 % to 9.97 %; with DAA: validation R2 improved from 0.72 to 0.79, NRMSE reduced from 11.09 % to 9.06 %), but also reduces the complexity and dimensionality of the models by eliminating 96 % of the redundant spectral bands (2015 bands). Moreover, the inferior results of the Pearson-Iteration-DNN framework further underscore the effectiveness of the Boruta method in selecting relevant spectral bands. Additionally, including the DAA phenological information enhances the accuracy of all models (the total R2 of training and validation increased by 0.05 ∼ 0.12, and the total NRMSE reduced by 1.49 % ∼ 1.93 %). These findings highlight the ability of DNN models integrated with hyperspectral data and phenological information to accurately assess LNC in apple trees, thereby offering valuable guidance to orchard management for developing precise fertilization strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Hyperspectral-to-image transform technique converts hyperspectral reflectance into images. • A 2D CNN architecture was proposed for leaf chlorophyll content (LCC) estimation. • An LCCNet was pre-trained based on a PROSAIL RTM dataset. • Reusing CNN layer information of LCCNet improved the soybean LCC estimation. Leaf chlorophyll content (LCC) is a distinct indicator of crop health status used to estimate nutritional stress, diseases, and pests. Thus, accurate LCC information can assist in the monitoring of crop growth. The combined use of hyperspectral and deep learning techniques (e.g., convolutional neural network [CNN] and transfer learning [TL]) can improve the performance of crop LCC estimation. We propose a hyperspectral-to-image transform (HIT) technique for converting canopy hyperspectral reflectance into 2D images. We designed a CNN architecture called LCCNet that fuses the deep and shallow features of CNNs to improve soybean LCC estimation. This study evaluated the combined use of hyperspectral remote sensing (RS), HIT, CNN, and TL techniques to estimate soybean LCC for multiple growth stages. The LCCNet was pre-trained based on a simulated dataset (n = 114,048) from the PROSAIL radiative transfer model (RTM) and used as prior knowledge for this work. The soybean canopy hyperspectral RS dataset (n = 910) was obtained using a FieldSpec 3 spectrometer. The knowledge gained while learning to estimate LCC from PROSAIL RTM was applied when estimating field soybean LCC (Dualex readings). TL was used to enhance the soybean estimation model, called the Soybean-LCCNet (RTM + HIT + CNN + TL) model. We tested the LCC (Dualex readings) estimation performance using (a) HIT + CNN, (b) LCCNet (RTM + HIT + CNN), (c) Soybean-LCCNet (RTM + HIT + CNN + TL), and (d) widely used LCC spectral features + partial least squares regression (PLSR). Four methods were ranked based on their LCC estimation performance: Soybean-LCCNet (R2 = 0.78, RMSE = 4.13 (Dualex readings)) > HIT + CNN (R2 = 0.75, RMSE = 4.41 (Dualex readings)) > PLSR-based method (R2 = 0.61, RMSE = 5.39 (Dualex readings)) > LCCNet (R2 = 0.53, RMSE = 7.11 (Dualex readings)). The main conclusions of this work are as follows: (1) HIT + CNN can provide a more robust LCC estimation performance than the widely used LCC SIs; (2) Fusing the deep and shallow features of CNNs can improve the performance of RS soybean LCC (Dualex readings) estimation; and (3) Soybean-LCCNet can reuse the CNN layer information of a pre-trained LCCNet based on a PROSAIL RTM dataset and improve the soybean LCC estimation performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Canopy-scale chlorophyll content (CCC) estimation conducted on open-canopy orchards. • A simplified 3D radiative transfer model is coupled with PROSPECT-D model. • Vegetation indices and model inversion methods are assessed with UAV data. • Look-up table including vegetation indices can estimate CCC of ITCs from image spectroscopy. • The inversion method based on the prior knowledge provides accurate estimation of CCC. Chlorophyll content is a key trait for understanding the functioning of agroforestry ecosystems and has important implications for leaf and canopy photosynthesis. However, fine-scale monitoring of canopy chlorophyll content (CCC) of individual fruit trees is rather challenging. This study aims to use a 3D radiative transfer model (RTM) and proposes a joint inversion model based on prior knowledge to estimate the CCC of individual tree crowns (ITCs) in apple orchards. The widely recognized 3D RTM LESS (large-scale remote sensing data and image simulation framework over heterogeneous 3D scenes) was adopted for large-scale apple orchard 3D scenes radiative transfer computing and image simulation. LESS was first evaluated with unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) multispectral imagery and the results showed that it reasonably characterized the reflectance of apple tree canopies (RMSE = 0.02). An original look-up table (LUT) with reflectance was then produced using LESS, and the final vegetation indices LUT (VI LUT) including Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Green Chlorophyll Index (CIgreen), Red edge Chlorophyll Index (CIred edge) and Green NDVI (GNDVI) was generated from the original LUT form VI interpolation. A physically-based joint inversion model coupling prior knowledge of leaf pigments and leaf area index (LAI) was developed to estimate the CCC of ITCs from high-resolution UAV images. The solution first used linear interpolation to produce a weighted VI LUT corresponding to the sample based on estimated LAI. Linear interpolation was then adopted to screen multiple combinations of leaf chlorophyll a+b (C ab) and leaf carotenoids (C xc) contents from the VI LUT. A prior relationship between C ab and C xc was finally used to regularize the constraints on multiple VI combinations and determine the estimation of C ab and CCC. The joint inversion model demonstrated an accurate estimation of CCC of ITCs. The model driven by GNDVI yielded the highest result for CCC estimation (R2 = 0.84, RMSE = 24.12 μg/cm2). In addition, CIgreen (R2 = 0.82, RMSE = 32.22 μg/cm2) and CIred edge (R2 = 0.81, RMSE = 34.05 μg/cm2) also achieved satisfactory results. The proposed model facilitates CCC estimation of ITCs from high-resolution imagery in heterogeneous orchard canopies, which is important for advancing the precise nutrition management of fruit trees. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Potential of land surface temperature to predict flowering phenology was explored. • A spatio-temporal reconstruction approach is developed to compenstate the missing LST. • The predicted first flowering date are validated with field measurements at multiple sites. • Feasibility for generating spatially continuous information on flowering phenology. The first flowering date (FFD) is a critical phenological parameter closely related to the apple yield, so the accurate prediction of the FFD is important for precise orchard production management. Existing methods to predict the FFD are mostly based on air temperature (Ta) measured at meteorological stations, but to great differences in meteorological variations and the ecological conditions, these methods cannot present the differences of FFD under complex meteorological conditions and provide spatially continuous FFD information at the level of a region. Therefore, we propose a method to predict spatially continuous apple FFD from remote sensing land surface temperature (LST) based on flowering prediction model. Firstly, the missing LST data were reconstructed by using spatio-temporal reconstruction (STR) approach developed. Next, new air temperature (NAT) data were generated by using the daily Ta estimation (DTE) model and the reconstructed LST. Finally, apple FFD was predicted by the NAT data and the apple flowering prediction model established based on random forest (RF) algorithm and the phenology sequential model, and the prediction accuracy was verified by comparison with the independently measured apple FFD. The LST reconstructed by using the STR approach has mean absolute error (MAE) ranging from 0.51 to 0.68 °C, and root mean square error (RMSE) ranging from 1.07 to 1.21 °C. The MAE between the NAT data and the High-Resolution Land Surface Data Assimilation System (HR-CLDAS) meteorological data ranges from 2.15 to 3.23 °C, and the RMSE ranges from 2.81 to 4.27 °C. In addition, the determination coefficient (R2) and RMSE between the predicted and measured FFD is 0.72 and 2.96 days, respectively. These results demonstrate that the developed method maximizes the potential of MODIS LST in predicting spatially continuous apple FFD, which is valuable for flower and fruit thinning, to defend against frost disasters, and in general for refined orchard production management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• An apple tree yield prediction model was developed by using ensemble learning. • The contribution of spectral and structural features to orchard yield was discussed. • An automatic channel was developed to extract growth characteristics. As one of the world's most popular fruit, apple tree yield prediction before harvest plays an important role in optimizing orchard nutrition management, especially at the individual tree level. However, few studies focus on fruit-tree yield prediction with remote-sensing technology whereas most of them aim at field crops. Current fruits identifying and counting methods often fail to produce the expected result due to light and occlusion in complex orchard conditions. Since both the spectral and morphological characteristics of tree canopy can reflect the growth and development of fruit trees and are directly related to its potential yield. In this study, we develop a channel for automatic extraction of spectral and morphological features of apple trees using light detection and ranging (LiDAR) and multispectral imagery data from unmanned aerial vehicles. The contribution of spectral and morphological characteristics to the yield prediction of individual apple trees is discussed. With the combination of spectral and morphological features, an ensemble machine learning yield prediction model was developed by combining two widely used basic learners: support vector regression (SVR) and K-nearest neighbor (KNN). Then through extrapolating the ensemble model, the yield map was produced at the orchard level and individual tree level, respectively. The results show that the data processing channels developed in this study can accurately extract the morphological and spectral features of individual apple trees. Three features (Crown Volume 1, Ratio Vegetation Index, and CPA1) contribute most in apple tree yield prediction. The ensemble learning model outperforms all base learners with R2 = 0.813 for the validation and 0.758 for the test when using the selected three features. This study thus provides a practical example of predicting the yield of individual apple trees based on multi-source remote-sensing data and ensemble learning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Accurately forecast the first flowering period of two typical apple producing areas in China. • It fills in the research of forecasting the first flowering period of apple from point scale to regional scale. • The phenological survey method of replacing time with space is very effective for the calibration of sequential model. • The prediction of the apple first flowering on a regional scale has important application value for optimizing orchard management. China is one of the largest apple-producing countries in the world, with large orchards and diverse climates. Accurately forecasting the first-flowering time of apple trees can assist orchard managers in their deciding when to apply anti-freeze. The temperature-driven sequential model from previous studies can be used to forecast the flowering phenology of deciduous fruit trees. However, this model requires many years of observational data for calibration, so flowering forecasts based on traditional phenological models cannot be implemented in areas that lack such historical data. To overcome this problem, the present work combines a spatial rather than a temporal phenological survey method with 1-km-gridded temperature products to calibrate the chill and heat requirement parameters of the sequential model. We then use the model to forecast the first-flowering on a regional scale for Luochuan and Linyi, which are two main apple-producing areas of China. The results show that the proposed method accurately forecasts regional flowering. The root mean squared errors (RMSE) for Luochuan and Linyi were 4.7 and 4.4 days, respectively, and the normalized RMSEs were all less than 5.19%. We expect the proposed regional first-flowering forecast method to be an important aid to optimize orchard management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) is an important agricultural parameter that is closely correlated with crop growth. In this study, a novel method combining the dynamic time warping (DTW) model and the long short-term memory (LSTM) deep recurrent neural network model was developed to predict the short and medium-term winter wheat NDVI. LSTM is well-suited for modelling long-term dependencies, but this method may be susceptible to overfitting. In contrast, DTW possesses good predictive ability and is less susceptible to overfitting. Therefore, by utilizing the combination of these two models, the prediction error caused by overfitting is reduced, thus improving the final prediction accuracy. The combined method proposed here utilizes the historical MODIS time series data with an 8-day time resolution from 2015 to 2020. First, fast Fourier transform (FFT) is used to decompose the time series into two parts. The first part reflects the inter-annual and seasonal variation characteristics of winter wheat NDVI, and the DTW model is applied for prediction. The second part reflects the short-term change characteristics of winter wheat NDVI, and the LSTM model is applied for prediction. Next, the results from both models are combined to produce a final prediction. A case study in Hebei Province that predicts the NDVI of winter wheat at five prediction horizons in the future indicates that the DTW–LSTM model proposed here outperforms the LSTM model according to multiple evaluation indicators. The results of this study suggest that the DTW–LSTM model is highly promising for short and medium-term NDVI prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate determination of phenological information of crops is essential for field management and decision-making. Remote sensing time-series data are widely used for extracting phenological phases. Existing methods mainly extract phenological phases directly from individual remote sensing time-series, which are easily affected by clouds, noise, and mixed pixels. This paper proposes a novel method of phenological phase extraction based on the time-weighted dynamic time warping (TWDTW) algorithm using MODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) 5-day time-series data with a spatial resolution of 500 m. Firstly, based on the phenological differences between winter wheat and other land cover types, winter wheat distribution is extracted using the TWDTW classification method, and the results show that the overall classification accuracy and Kappa coefficient reach 94.74% and 0.90, respectively. Then, we extract the pure winter-wheat pixels using a method based on the coefficient of variation, and use these pixels to generate the average phenological curve. Next, the difference between each winter-wheat phenological curve and the average winter-wheat phenological curve is quantitatively calculated using the TWDTW algorithm. Finally, the key phenological phases of winter wheat in the study area, namely, the green-up date (GUD), heading date (HD), and maturity date (MD), are determined. The results show that the phenological phase extraction using the TWDTW algorithm has high accuracy. By verification using phenological station data from the Meteorological Data Sharing Service System of China, the root mean square errors (RMSEs) of the GUD, HD, and MD are found to be 9.76, 5.72, and 6.98 days, respectively. Additionally, the method proposed in this article is shown to have a better extraction performance compared with several other methods. Furthermore, it is shown that, in Hebei Province, the GUD, HD, and MD are mainly affected by latitude and accumulated temperature. As the latitude increases from south to north, the GUD, HD, and MD are delayed, and for each 1° increment in latitude, the GUD, HD, and MD are delayed by 4.84, 5.79, and 6.61 days, respectively. The higher the accumulated temperature, the earlier the phenological phases occur. However, latitude and accumulated temperature have little effect on the length of the phenological phases. Additionally, the lengths of time between GUD and HD, HD and MD, and GUD and MD are stable at 46, 41, and 87 days, respectively. Overall, the proposed TWDTW method can accurately determine the key phenological phases of winter wheat at a regional scale using remote sensing time-series data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the increase in the frequency of extreme weather events in recent years, apple growing areas in the Loess Plateau frequently encounter frost during flowering. Accurately assessing the frost loss in orchards during the flowering period is of great significance for optimizing disaster prevention measures, market apple price regulation, agricultural insurance, and government subsidy programs. The previous research on orchard frost disasters is mainly focused on early risk warning. Therefore, to effectively quantify orchard frost loss, this paper proposes a frost loss assessment model constructed using meteorological and remote sensing information and applies this model to the regional-scale assessment of orchard fruit loss after frost. As an example, this article examines a frost event that occurred during the apple flowering period in Luochuan County, Northwestern China, on 17 April 2020. A multivariable linear regression (MLR) model was constructed based on the orchard planting years, the number of flowering days, and the chill accumulation before frost, as well as the minimum temperature and daily temperature difference on the day of frost. Then, the model simulation accuracy was verified using the leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) method, and the coefficient of determination (R2), the root mean square error (RMSE), and the normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) were 0.69, 18.76%, and 18.76%, respectively. Additionally, the extended Fourier amplitude sensitivity test (EFAST) method was used for the sensitivity analysis of the model parameters. The results show that the simulated apple orchard fruit number reduction ratio is highly sensitive to the minimum temperature on the day of frost, and the chill accumulation and planting years before the frost, with sensitivity values of ≥0.74, ≥0.25, and ≥0.15, respectively. This research can not only assist governments in optimizing traditional orchard frost prevention measures and market price regulation but can also provide a reference for agricultural insurance companies to formulate plans for compensation after frost. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]