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The article examines the factors that need to consider to modify the organizational evaluation process to enhance health equity initiatives world wide. Topics mentioned include the importance of investing in several forms of evidence generation and use and independent evaluation, the issues pertaining to health equity, and the role of evaluation in decision making and capacity building.

Background Health services were severely affected during the many years of instability and conflict in Afghanistan. In recent years, substantial increases in the coverage of reproductive health services have been achieved, yet absolute levels of coverage remain very low, especially in rural areas. One strategy for increasing use of reproductive health services is deploying community health workers (CHWs) to promote the use of services within the community and at health facilities. Methods Using a multilevel model employing data from a cross-sectional survey of 8320 households in 29 provinces of Afghanistan conducted in 2006, this study determines whether presence of a CHW in the community leads to an increase in use of modern contraceptives, skilled antenatal care and skilled birth attendance. This study further examines whether the effect varies by the sex of the CHW. Results Results show that presence of a female CHW in the community is associated with higher use of modern contraception, antenatal care services and skilled birth attendants but presence of a male CHW is not. Community-level random effects were also significant. Conclusions This study provides evidence that indicates that CHWs can contribute to increased use of reproductive health services and that context and CHW sex are important factors that need to be addressed in programme design. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives. We sought to identify characteristics associated with use of skilled birth attendants where health services exist in Afghanistan. Methods. We conducted a cross-sectional study in all 33 provinces in 2004, yielding data from 617 health facilities and 9917 women who lived near the facilities and had given birth in the past 2 years. Results. Only 13% of respondents had used skilled birth attendants. Women from the wealthiest quintile [vs the poorest quintile) had higher odds of use (odds ratio [OR] = 6.3; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 44, 8.9}. Literacy was strongly associated with use (OR = 2.5; 95% CI = 2.0, 3.2), as was living less than 60 minutes from the facility (OR = 1.5; 95% CI = 1.1, 2,0) and residing near a facility with a female midwife or doctor (OR = 1.4; 95% CI = 1.1, 1.8). Women living near facilities that charged user fees (OR = 0.8; 95% CI = 0.6, 1.0) and that had male community health workers (OR = 0.6; 95% CI = 0.5, 0.9) had lower odds of use. Conclusions. In Afghanistan, the rate of use of safe delivery care must be improved. The financial barriers of poor and uneducated women should be reduced and culturally acceptable alternatives must be considered. (Am J Public Health. 2008;98:1849-1856. doi:10.2105/AJPH.2007.123471) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Vaccine hesitancy remains a critical barrier in mitigating the effects of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. The willingness of health care workers (HCWs) to be vaccinated, and, in turn, recommend the COVID-19 vaccine for their patient population is an important strategy. This study aims to understand the uptake of COVID-19 vaccines and the reasoning for vaccine hesitancy among facility-based health care workers (HCWs) in LMICs. Methods: We conducted nationally representative phone-based rapid-cycle surveys across facilities in six LMICs to better understand COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy. We gathered data on vaccine uptake among facility managers, their perceptions of vaccine uptake and hesitancy among the HCWs operating in their facilities, and their perception of vaccine hesitancy among the patient population served by the facility. Results: 1,148 unique public health facilities participated in the study, with vaccines being almost universally offered to facility-based respondents across five out of six countries. Among facility respondents who have been offered the vaccine, more than 9 in 10 survey respondents had already been vaccinated at the time of data collection. Vaccine uptake among other HCWs at the facility was similarly high. Over 90% of facilities in Bangladesh, Liberia, Malawi, and Nigeria reported that all or most staff had already received the COVID-19 vaccine when the survey was conducted. Concerns about side effects predominantly drive vaccine hesitancy in both HCWs and the patient population. Conclusion: Our findings indicate that the opportunity to get vaccinated in participating public facilities is almost universal. We find vaccine hesitancy among facility-based HCWs, as reported by respondents, to be very low. This suggests that a potentially effective effort to increase vaccine uptake equitably would be to channel promotional activities through health facilities and HCWs.However, reasons for hesitancy, even if limited, are far from uniform across countries, highlighting the need for audience-specific messaging. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has had wide-reaching direct and indirect impacts on population health. In low- and middle-income countries, these impacts can halt progress toward reducing maternal and child mortality. This study estimates changes in health services utilization during the pandemic and the associated consequences for maternal, neonatal, and child mortality. Methods and findings: Data on service utilization from January 2018 to June 2021 were extracted from health management information systems of 18 low- and lower-middle-income countries (Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Cameroon, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Ethiopia, Ghana, Guinea, Haiti, Kenya, Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Somalia, and Uganda). An interrupted time-series design was used to estimate the percent change in the volumes of outpatient consultations and maternal and child health services delivered during the pandemic compared to projected volumes based on prepandemic trends. The Lives Saved Tool mathematical model was used to project the impact of the service utilization disruptions on child and maternal mortality. In addition, the estimated monthly disruptions were also correlated to the monthly number of COVID-19 deaths officially reported, time since the start of the pandemic, and relative severity of mobility restrictions. Across the 18 countries, we estimate an average decline in OPD volume of 13.1% and average declines of 2.6% to 4.6% for maternal and child services. We projected that decreases in essential health service utilization between March 2020 and June 2021 were associated with 113,962 excess deaths (110,686 children under 5, and 3,276 mothers), representing 3.6% and 1.5% increases in child and maternal mortality, respectively. This excess mortality is associated with the decline in utilization of the essential health services included in the analysis, but the utilization shortfalls vary substantially between countries, health services, and over time. The largest disruptions, associated with 27.5% of the excess deaths, occurred during the second quarter of 2020, regardless of whether countries reported the highest rate of COVID-19-related mortality during the same months. There is a significant relationship between the magnitude of service disruptions and the stringency of mobility restrictions. The study is limited by the extent to which administrative data, which varies in quality across countries, can accurately capture the changes in service coverage in the population. Conclusions: Declines in healthcare utilization during the COVID-19 pandemic amplified the pandemic's harmful impacts on health outcomes and threaten to reverse gains in reducing maternal and child mortality. As efforts and resource allocation toward prevention and treatment of COVID-19 continue, essential health services must be maintained, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. Tashrik Ahmed and co-workers study health-care use and maternal and child health outcomes across low- and lower-middle-income countries during the COVID-19 pandemic. Author summary: Why was this study done?: Disruptions to essential health services during the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic amplify the pandemic's impact on morbidity and mortality and pose a profound threat to the ability of low- and middle-income countries to achieve Universal Health Coverage (UHC) and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). While early studies projected mortality based on hypothesized scenarios, this study presents indirect child, neonatal, and maternal mortality projections during the COVID-19 pandemic based on actual service utilization data. This study adds to multicountry evidence on changes in the utilization of essential health services from low- and middle-income countries. What did the authors do and find?: We used data on service utilization in 18 countries to estimate the percent change in health services delivered between March 2020 and June 2021, compared to expected levels given prepandemic trends. The analysis indicates that all countries experienced service disruptions, the largest of which occurred at the pandemic's start and during months with strict mobility restrictions, regardless of the reported monthly COVID-19 mortality rates, demonstrating variation in the magnitude of disruptions across countries, services, and time. Using a mathematical model, we project these disruptions are associated with an additional 113,962 deaths among women in children in the 18 countries, representing increases of 3.6% in child mortality and 1.5% in maternal mortality. What do these findings mean?: The projected excess mortality caused by disruptions to essential health services is smaller than many initial projections, though still comprises a substantial increase in mortality. There is strong evidence to recommend that context-specific measures to safeguard essential services be integrated into pandemic preparedness and response activities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the findings of a study to assess the effectiveness and sustainability of a GAVI (Global Alliance of Vaccines and Immunization) sponsored, time-limited Injection Safety (INS) support. The support came in two forms: 1) in-kind, in the form of AD syringes and safety boxes, and 2) in cash, for those countries that already had a secure, multi-year source of AD syringes and safety boxes, but proposed to use INS support to strengthen their injection safety activities. In total, GAVI gave INS support for a three-year period to 58 countries: 46 with commodities and 12 with cash support. To identify variables that might be associated with financial sustainability, frequencies and cross-tabulations were run against various programmatic and socio-economic variables in the 58 countries. All but two of the 46 commodity-recipient countries were able to replace and sustain the use of AD syringes and safety boxes after the end of their GAVI INS support despite the fact that standard disposable syringes are less costly than ADs (10-15 percent differential). In addition, all 12 cash- recipient countries continued to use AD syringes and safety boxes in their immunization programs in the years following GAVI INS assistance. At the same time, countries were often not prepared for the increased waste management requirements associated with the use of the syringes, suggesting the importance of anticipating challenges with the introduction of new technologies. The sustained use of AD syringes in countries receiving injection safety support from GAVI, in a majority of cases through government financing, following the completion of three years of time-limited support, represents an early indication of how GHPs can contribute to improved health outcomes in immunization safety in the world's poorest countries in a sustainable way. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective To examine historical estimates of infant and under-five mortality in Afghanistan, provide estimates for rural areas from current population-based data, and discuss the methodological challenges that undermine data quality and hinder retrospective estimations of mortality. Methods Indirect methods of estimation were used to calculate infant and under-five mortality from a household survey conducted in 2006. Sex-specific differences in underreporting of births and deaths were examined and sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the effect of underreporting on infant and under-five mortality. Findings For 2004, rural unadjusted infant and under-five mortality rates were estimated to be 129 and 191 deaths per 1000 live births, respectively, with some evidence indicating underreporting of female deaths. If adjustment for underreporting is made (i.e. by assuming 50% of the unreported girls are dead), mortality estimates go up to 140 and 209, respectively. Conclusion Commonly used estimates of infant and under-five mortality in Afghanistan are outdated; they do not reflect changes that have occurred in the past 15 years or recent intensive investments in health services development, such as the implementation of the Basic Package of Health Services. The sociocultural aspects of mortality and their effect on the reporting of births and deaths in Afghanistan need to be investigated further. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Quality improvement initiatives can be fragmented and short-term, leading to missed opportunities to improve quality in a systemic and sustainable manner. An overarching national policy or strategy on quality, informed by frontline implementation, can provide direction for quality initiatives across all levels of the health system. This can strengthen service delivery along with strong leadership, resources, and infrastructure as essential building blocks for the health system. This article draws on the proceedings of an ISQua conference exploring factors for institutionalizing quality of care within national systems. Active learning, inclusive of peer-to-peer learning and exchange, mentoring and coaching, emerged as a critical success factor to creating a culture of quality. When coupled by reinforcing elements like strong partnerships and coordination across multiple levels, engagement at all health system levels and strong political commitment, this culture can be cascaded to all levels requiring policy, leadership, and the capabilities for delivering quality healthcare. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective To estimate the economic impact likely to be achieved by efforts to vaccinate against 10 vaccine-preventable diseases between 2001 and 2020 in 73 low- and middle-income countries largely supported by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance. Methods We used health impact models to estimate the economic impact of achieving forecasted coverages for vaccination against Haemophilus influenzae type b, hepatitis B, human papillomavirus, Japanese encephalitis, measles, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, rotavirus, rubella, Streptococcus pneumoniae and yellow fever. In comparison with no vaccination, we modelled the costs -- expressed in 2010 United States dollars (US$) -- of averted treatment, transportation costs, productivity losses of caregivers and productivity losses due to disability and death. We used the value-of-a-life-year method to estimate the broader economic and social value of living longer, in better health, as a result of immunization. Findings We estimated that, in the 73 countries, vaccinations given between 2001 and 2020 will avert over 20 million deaths and save US$ 350 billion in cost of illness. The deaths and disability prevented by vaccinations given during the two decades will result in estimated lifelong productivity gains totalling US$ 330 billion and US$ 9 billion, respectively. Over the lifetimes of the vaccinated cohorts, the same vaccinations will save an estimated US$ 5 billion in treatment costs. The broader economic and social value of these vaccinations is estimated at US$ 820 billion. Conclusion By preventing significant costs and potentially increasing economic productivity among some of the world's poorest countries, the impact of immunization goes well beyond health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Important inequalities in childhood vaccination coverage persist between countries and population groups. Understanding why some countries achieve higher and more equitable levels of coverage is crucial to redress these inequalities. In this study, we explored the country-level determinants of (1) coverage of the third dose of diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis- (DTP3) containing vaccine and (2) within-country inequalities in DTP3 coverage in 45 countries supported by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance. Methods We used data from the most recent Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) conducted between 2005 and 2014. We measured national DTP3 coverage and the slope index of inequality in DTP3 coverage with respect to household wealth, maternal education, and multidimensional poverty. We collated data on country health systems, health financing, governance and geographic and sociocultural contexts from published sources. We used meta-regressions to assess the relationship between these country-level factors and variations in DTP3 coverage and inequalities. To validate our findings, we repeated these analyses for coverage with measles-containing vaccine (MCV). Results We found considerable heterogeneity in DTP3 coverage and in the magnitude of inequalities across countries. Results for MCV were consistent with those from DTP3. Political stability, gender equality and smaller land surface were important predictors of higher and more equitable levels of DTP3 coverage. Inequalities in DTP3 coverage were also lower in countries receiving more external resources for health, with lower rates of out-of-pocket spending and with higher national coverage. Greater government spending on heath and lower linguistic fractionalization were also consistent with better vaccination outcomes. Conclusion Improving vaccination coverage and reducing inequalities requires that policies and programs address critical social determinants of health including geographic and social exclusion, gender inequality and the availability of financial protection for health. Further research should investigate the mechanisms contributing to these associations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives (1) To conduct a systematic analysis of inequalities in childhood vaccination coverage in Gavi-supported countries; (2) to comparatively assess alternative measurement approaches and how they may affect cross-country comparisons of the level of inequalities. Methods Using the most recent Demographic and Health Surveys (2005–2014) in 45 Gavi-supported countries, we measured inequalities in vaccination coverage across seven dimensions of social stratification and of vulnerability to poor health outcomes. We quantified inequalities using pairwise comparisons (risk differences and ratios) and whole spectrum measures (slope and relative indices of inequality). To contrast measurement approaches, we pooled the estimates using random-effects meta-analyses, ranked countries by the magnitude of inequality and compared agreement in country ranks. Results At the aggregate level, maternal education, multidimensional poverty, and wealth index poverty were the dimensions associated with the largest inequalities. In 36 out of 45 countries, inequalities were substantial, with a difference in coverage of 10 percentage points or more between the top and bottom of at least one of these social dimensions. Important inequalities by child sex, child malnutrition and urban/rural residence were also found in a smaller set of countries. The magnitude of inequality and ranking of countries differed across dimension and depending on the measure used. Pairwise comparisons could not be estimated in certain countries. The slope and relative indices of inequality were estimated in all countries and produced more stable country rankings, and should thus facilitate more reliable international comparisons. Conclusions Inequalities in vaccination coverage persist in a large majority of Gavi-supported countries. Inequalities should be monitored across multiple dimensions of vulnerability. Using whole spectrum measures to quantify inequality across multiple ordered social groups has important advantages. We illustrate these findings using an equity dashboard designed to support decision-making in the Sustainable Development Goals period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Equity monitoring is a priority for Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, and for those implementing The 2030 agenda for sustainable development. For its new phase of operations, Gavi reassessed its approach to monitoring equity in vaccination coverage. To help inform this effort, we made a systematic analysis of inequalities in vaccination coverage across 45 Gavi-supported countries and compared results from different measurement approaches. Based on our findings, we formulated recommendations for Gavi's equity monitoring approach. The approach involved defining the vulnerable populations, choosing appropriate measures to quantify inequalities, and defining equity benchmarks that reflect the ambitions of the sustainable development agenda. In this article, we explain the rationale for the recommendations and for the development of an improved equity monitoring tool. Gavi's previous approach to measuring equity was the difference in vaccination coverage between a country's richest and poorest wealth quintiles. In addition to the wealth index, we recommend monitoring other dimensions of vulnerability (maternal education, place of residence, child sex and the multidimensional poverty index). For dimensions with multiple subgroups, measures of inequality that consider information on all subgroups should be used. We also recommend that both absolute and relative measures of inequality be tracked over time. Finally, we propose that equity benchmarks target complete elimination of inequalities. To facilitate equity monitoring, we recommend the use of a data display tool -- the equity dashboard -- to support decision-making in the sustainable development period. We highlight its key advantages using data from Côte d'Ivoire and Haiti. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has had wide-reaching direct and indirect impacts on population health. In low- and middle-income countries, these impacts can halt progress toward reducing maternal and child mortality. This study estimates changes in health services utilization during the pandemic and the associated consequences for maternal, neonatal, and child mortality.Methods and Findings: Data on service utilization from January 2018 to June 2021 were extracted from health management information systems of 18 low- and lower-middle-income countries (Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Cameroon, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Ethiopia, Ghana, Guinea, Haiti, Kenya, Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Somalia, and Uganda). An interrupted time-series design was used to estimate the percent change in the volumes of outpatient consultations and maternal and child health services delivered during the pandemic compared to projected volumes based on prepandemic trends. The Lives Saved Tool mathematical model was used to project the impact of the service utilization disruptions on child and maternal mortality. In addition, the estimated monthly disruptions were also correlated to the monthly number of COVID-19 deaths officially reported, time since the start of the pandemic, and relative severity of mobility restrictions. Across the 18 countries, we estimate an average decline in OPD volume of 13.1% and average declines of 2.6% to 4.6% for maternal and child services. We projected that decreases in essential health service utilization between March 2020 and June 2021 were associated with 113,962 excess deaths (110,686 children under 5, and 3,276 mothers), representing 3.6% and 1.5% increases in child and maternal mortality, respectively. This excess mortality is associated with the decline in utilization of the essential health services included in the analysis, but the utilization shortfalls vary substantially between countries, health services, and over time. The largest disruptions, associated with 27.5% of the excess deaths, occurred during the second quarter of 2020, regardless of whether countries reported the highest rate of COVID-19-related mortality during the same months. There is a significant relationship between the magnitude of service disruptions and the stringency of mobility restrictions. The study is limited by the extent to which administrative data, which varies in quality across countries, can accurately capture the changes in service coverage in the population.Conclusions: Declines in healthcare utilization during the COVID-19 pandemic amplified the pandemic's harmful impacts on health outcomes and threaten to reverse gains in reducing maternal and child mortality. As efforts and resource allocation toward prevention and treatment of COVID-19 continue, essential health services must be maintained, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective To study trends in the quality of the health care provided to children aged less than 5 years in Afghanistan between 2004 and 2006. In particular, to determine the effect on such quality of a basic package of health services (BPHS), including Integrated Management of Childhood Illness (IMCI), introduced in 2003. Methods In each year of the study, 500--600 health facilities providing the BPHS were selected by stratified random sampling in 29 provinces of Afghanistan. We observed consultations for children aged less than 5 years, interviewed their caretakers, interviewed health-care providers and measured adherence to case management standards for assessment and counselling in a random sample. Findings The quality of the assessment and counselling provided to sick children aged less than 5 years improved significantly between 2004 and 2006. A 43.4% increase in the assessment index and a 28.7% increase in the counselling index (P < 0.001) were noted. Assessment quality improved significantly every year and was statistically associated with certain characteristics of the provider (being a doctor, having a higher knowledge score, being trained in IMCI, being part of a "contracting-in" mechanism and providing a longer consultation time) and the child (being younger and having a female caretaker). Counselling quality was also significantly associated with these characteristics, except for provider cadre and child age. The presence of clinical guidelines and the frequency of supervision were significantly associated with improved quality scores in 2006 (P < 0.05 and < 0.01, respectively). Conclusion Quality of care improved over the study period, but performance remained suboptimal in some areas. Continued investments in Afghanistan's health system capacity are needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Ministry of Public Health (MOPH) in Afghanistan has developed a balanced scorecard (BSC) to regularly monitor the progress of its strategy to deliver a basic package of health services. Although frequently used in other health-care settings, this represents the first time that the BSC has been employed in a developing country. The BSC was designed via a collaborative process focusing on translating the vision and mission of the MOPH into 29 core indicators and benchmarks representing six different domains of health services, together with two composite measures of performance. In the absence of a routine health information system, the 2004 BSC for Afghanistan was derived from a stratified random sample of 617 health facilities, 5719 observations of patient-provider interactions, and interviews with 5597 patients, 1553 health workers, and 13 843 households. Nationally, health services were found to be reaching more of the poor than the less-poor population, and providing for more women than men, both key concerns of the government. However, serious deficiencies were found in five domains, and particularly in counselling patients, providing delivery care during childbirth, monitoring tuberculosis treatment, placing staff and equipment, and establishing functional village health councils. The BSC also identified wide variations in performance across provinces; no province performed better than the others across all domains. The innovative adaptation of the BSC in Afghanistan has provided a useful tool to summarize the multidimensional nature of health-services performance, and is enabling managers to benchmark performance and identify strengths and weaknesses in the Afghan context. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There was no global guidance or agreement regarding when a country has an adequate system to report on the service packages among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) key populations. This article describes an approach to categorizing the system in a country for reporting the service package among HIV key populations. The approach consists of four dimensions, namely the epidemiological significance, comprehensiveness of the service packages, geographic coverage of services, and adequacy of the monitoring system. The proposed categorization approach utilizes available information and can inform the improvement of the service delivery and monitoring systems among HIV key populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Introduction: From August to December 2011, a multidisciplinary group with expertise in mathematical modeling was constituted by the GAVI Alliance and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation to estimate the impact of vaccination in 73 countries supported by the GAVI Alliance. Methods: The number of deaths averted in persons projected to be vaccinated during 2011–2020 was estimated for ten antigens: hepatitis B, yellow fever, Haemophilus influenzae type B (Hib), Streptococcus pneumoniae, rotavirus, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, Japanese encephalitis, human papillomavirus, measles, and rubella. Impact was calculated as the difference in the number of deaths expected over the lifetime of vaccinated cohorts compared to the number of deaths expected in those cohorts with no vaccination. Numbers of persons vaccinated were based on 2011 GAVI Strategic Demand Forecasts with projected dates of vaccine introductions, vaccination coverage, and target population size in each country. Results: By 2020, nearly all GAVI-supported countries with endemic disease are projected to have introduced hepatitis B, Hib, pneumococcal, rotavirus, rubella, yellow fever, N. meningitidis serogroup A, and Japanese encephalitis-containing vaccines; 55 (75 percent) countries are projected to have introduced human papillomavirus vaccine. Projected use of these vaccines during 2011–2020 is expected to avert an estimated 9.9 million deaths. Routine and supplementary immunization activities with measles vaccine are expected to avert an additional 13.4 million deaths. Estimated numbers of deaths averted per 1000 persons vaccinated were highest for first-dose measles (16.5), human papillomavirus (15.1), and hepatitis B (8.3) vaccination. Approximately 52 percent of the expected deaths averted will be in Africa, 27 percent in Southeast Asia, and 13 percent in the Eastern Mediterranean. Conclusion: Vaccination of persons during 2011–2020 in 73 GAVI-eligible countries is expected to have substantial public health impact, particularly in Africa and Southeast Asia, two regions with high mortality. The actual impact of vaccination in these countries may be higher than our estimates because several widely used antigens were not included in the analysis. The quality of our estimates is limited by lack of data on underlying disease burden and vaccine effectiveness against fatal disease outcomes in developing countries. We plan to update the estimates annually to reflect updated demand forecasts, to refine model assumptions based on results of new information, and to extend the analysis to include morbidity and economic benefits. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]