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Local meteorology over the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) can significantly influence ocean temperatures, which in turn impacts coral ecosystems. While El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) provides insight into the expected synoptic states, it lacks details of anticipated sub‐seasonal weather variability at local scales. This study explores the influence of the Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO) on Australian tropical climate, both independently and in combination with ENSO, focusing on GBR impacts. We find that during El Niño periods, including the summer of 2009/10, faster propagating MJO patterns can disrupt background warm, dry conditions, and potentially provide cooling relief via increased cloud cover and stronger winds. In La Niña periods, such as the summer of 2021/22, the MJO tends to be prevented from passing the Maritime continent, forcing it to remain in a standing pattern in the Indian Ocean. This leads to decreased cloud cover and weaker winds over the GBR, generating warm ocean anomalies. Plain Language Summary: Bleaching is likely when tropical corals are exposed to ocean temperatures above a threshold for a prolonged period. In austral summer, tropical weather over the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) can vary from hot and sunny to stormy with rain and strong winds. During El Niño, summer weather over the GBR is typically warm, still, and dry, increasing the likelihood of coral bleaching due to increased exposure to solar radiation and decreased mixing. During La Niña, tropical storms, with cooling effects through increased rainfall and cloud cover, are more typical. The Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO) is an eastward moving storm pattern near the equator that can also influence the background climate over the GBR. We find that the MJO can significantly influence the weather variability over the GBR, altering the expected states of El Niño and La Niña periods. Key Points: Composite maps show how the Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO) can change meteorological patterns on the Great Barrier ReefCluster analysis is used to show the types of MJO propagation patterns likely to occur during El Niño and La Niña periodsOcean temperature variability is discussed with El Niño/La Niña phases as the background states and the MJO as a sub‐seasonal modulator [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As marine heatwaves (MHWs) become more intense and longer lasting due to global warming, understanding the drivers and impacts of these events is crucial for effective marine resource management. This study investigates the influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Southern Annular Mode (SAM), Sub-Tropical Ridge High (STRH), and Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) on sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and MHWs around Australia. The aim of this research is to improve our understanding of the drivers of MHWs on sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales, which bridges the gap between short-term weather and interannual to long-term climate variability. By analysing SST anomalies and MHWs characteristics during specific driver phases, a simple MHW hazard index is developed. Our findings support previous research indicating that La Niña plays a role in driving MHWs off the coast of Western Australia and reveals a previously unrecognised connection between ocean warming off Queensland and Tasman Sea low-pressure systems associated with the negative phase of the STRH. Our research emphasizes the importance of considering multiple drivers and their compounding effects on MHWs by showing significant changes to typical La Niña MHW patterns with the additional influence of the MJO. By considering drivers acting in the S2S timescale, forecasts can more accurately capture the timing, intensity, and spatial extent of MHW events within a season. These improved forecasts can enhance the ability of marine managers to adapt and allocate resources based on evolving climate conditions, enabling effective implementation of harm minimisation strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) off Western Australia (110°–116°E, 22°–32°S; herein, WA MHWs) can cause devastating ecological impacts, as was evidenced by the 2011 extreme event. Previous studies suggest that La Niña is the major large-scale driver of WA MHWs, while the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) may also play a role. Here, we investigate historical WA MHWs and their connections to these large-scale climate modes in an ocean model (ACCESS-OM2) simulation driven by a prescribed atmosphere from JRA-55-do over 1959–2018. Rather than analyzing sea surface temperature, the WA MHWs and climate mode indices were characterized and investigated in vertically averaged temperature (VAT) to ∼300-m depth to afford the longer ocean dynamic time scales, including remote oceanic connections. We develop a cyclostationary linear inverse model (CS-LIM; from 35°S to 10°N, across the Indo-Pacific Ocean), to investigate the relative contributions of La Niña VAT and positive IOD VAT to the predictability of WA VAT MHWs. Using a large ensemble of CS-LIM simulations, we found that ∼50% of WA MHWs were preceded about 5 months by La Niña, and 30% of the MHWs by positive IOD about 20 months prior. While precursor La Niña or positive IOD, on their own, were found to correspond with increased WA MHW likelihood in the months following (∼2.7 times or ∼1.5 times more likely than by chance, respectively), in combination these climate mode phases were found to produce the largest enhancement in MHW likelihood (∼3.2 times more likely than by chance). Additionally, we found that stronger and longer La Niña and/or positive IOD tend to lead stronger and longer WA MHWs. Significance Statement: This study examines seasonal-to-interannual time-scale predictability of marine heatwaves off Western Australia. We developed and applied a linear inverse model, informed by numerical model results, to generate a large number of 60-yr temperature simulations across the broader Indian–Pacific Ocean region to quantify this marine heatwave predictability. We found that La Niña typically increases the likelihood of marine heatwaves off Western Australia about 5 months (3–7 months) later, while positive Indian Ocean dipole events increase their likelihood about 20 months (18–22 months) later. Marine heatwaves can severely impact local marine ecosystems and the economy. Our findings are expected to be valuable for marine heatwave prediction system development on time scales that can be beneficial to marine ecosystem conservation and fishery management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) can severely impact marine biodiversity, fisheries, and aquaculture. Consequently, there is an increasing desire to understand the drivers of these events to inform their predictability so that proactive decisions may be made to reduce potential impacts. In the Tasman Sea (TS), several relatively intense and broad-scale MHWs have caused significant damage to marine fisheries and aquaculture industries. To assess the potential predictability of these events, we first determined the main driver of each MHW event in the TS from 1993 to 2021. We found that those MHWs driven by ocean advection}approximately 45% of all events}are generally longer in duration and less intense and affected a smaller area compared with the remaining 55%, which are driven by air–sea heat fluxes, are shorter in duration, and are more surface intense. As ocean advection–driven events in the TS have been closely studied and reported previously, we focus here on atmospherically driven MHWs. The predictability of these events is assessed by identifying the patterns of atmospheric pressure, winds, and air– sea heat fluxes in the Southern Hemisphere that coincide with MHWs in the Tasman Sea. We found that atmospherically driven MHWs in this region are more likely to occur during the positive phase of the asymmetric Southern Annular Mode (A-SAM)} which presents as an atmospheric zonal wave-3 pattern and is more likely to occur during La Niña years. These A-SAM events are linked to low wind speeds and increased downward solar radiation in the TS, which lead to increased surface ocean temperatures through the reduction of mixing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Annual precipitation over Central America and large areas of Mexico is typically characterised by its bimodal distribution, with a precipitation minimum in July to August that occurs between two separate maxima from May to July and August to October. Several theories have been proposed to explain this phenomenon, which is often termed the mid-summer drought (MSD), but most fail to address the different characteristics associated with individual MSD events. Here, a regression-based approach is used to detect and quantify the annual and climatological MSD signature over Central America and Mexico. This approach has been evaluated and shown to be robust for various datasets with different spatial resolutions. It was found that in the southeast of the Mexico/Central America region, MSDs start earlier and end later than elsewhere, and are thus longer in duration. However, the coast of the Gulf of Mexico, Cuba, and large areas of Central America, exhibit climatologically stronger MSDs. Changes in precipitation, brought about by the interaction between reversals of the onshore/offshore winds and orographic forcing associated with the steep mountainous terrain, have also been shown to be significant factors in the timing of MSD occurrences, offering support for a combined theory of large-scale dynamics and regional forcing. Using self-organising maps (SOMs) as an analysis tool, it was found that MSD events over the domain display strong spatial variability. The MSDs over the domain also generate distinct signatures and may be forced by particular mechanisms. We found that El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) could be a potential classifier for the SOM identified atmospheric states, based on the correspondence of MSD occurrences with ENSO phases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent marine heatwave (MHW) events in the Tasman Sea have had dramatic impacts on the ecosystems, fisheries, and aquaculture off Tasmania's east coast. However, our understanding of the large-scale drivers (forcing) and potential predictability of MHW events in this region off southeast Australia is still in its infancy. Here, we investigate the role of oceanic Rossby waves forced in the interior South Pacific on observed MHW occurrences off southeast Australia from 1994 to 2016, including the extreme 2015/16 MHW event. First, we used an upper-ocean heat budget analysis to show that 51% of these historical Tasman Sea MHWs were primarily due to increased East Australian Current (EAC) Extension poleward transports through the region. Second, we used lagged correlation analysis to empirically connect the EAC Extension intensification to incoming westward-propagating sea surface height (SSH) anomalies from the interior South Pacific. Third, we dynamically analyzed these SSH anomalies using simple process-based baroclinic and barotropic Rossby wave models forced by wind stress curl changes across the South Pacific. Finally, we show that associated monthly SSH changes around New Zealand may be a useful index of western Tasman Sea MHW predictability, with a lead time of 2–3 years. In conclusion, our findings demonstrate that there is potential predictability of advection-dominated MHW event likelihoods in the EAC Extension region up to several years in advance, due to the deterministic contribution from baroclinic and barotropic Rossby waves in modulating the EAC Extension transports. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sustained extreme temperature events in the ocean, referred to as marine heatwaves (MHWs), generate substantial ecological, social, and economic impacts. Ocean models provide insights to the drivers, persistence, and dissipation of MHWs. However, the sensitivity of MHW metrics to ocean model resolution is unknown. Here, we analyze global MHW metrics in three configurations of a global ocean‐sea ice model at coarse (1°), eddy‐permitting (0.25°), and eddy‐rich (0.1°) resolutions. We show that all configurations qualitatively represent broad‐scale global patterns of MHWs. These simulated MHWs are, however, weaker, longer‐lasting, and less frequent than in observations. The 0.1° configuration, despite local biases, performs best both globally and regionally. Based on these results, model projections of future MHW metrics using coarse‐resolution models are expected to be biased toward weaker and less frequent MHWs, when compared with results using an eddy‐rich model. Plain Language Summary: Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are persistent extreme temperatures in the ocean. They have a negative impact on marine life, fisheries, and tourism, and are becoming more frequent and more intense. One way to understand how MHWs form, intensify, and decay is by analyzing results from computer simulations of the ocean. However, these simulations are a simplification of reality, and depending on how they are designed they represent different aspects of the ocean circulation. It is still unknown how much the resolution of an ocean simulation matters when representing MHWs. In this work, we compare the performance of three ocean simulations—with low, medium, and high resolutions—when representing MHWs. We find that, regardless of their resolution, all simulations have weaker, longer, and less‐frequent MHWs, when compared with the real world. Despite these differences, we find that simulations with medium and high‐resolutions realistically represent global spatial patterns of MHWs. However, the ocean simulation with high resolution is preferable when studying regional patterns of MHWs. These results show how simulated MHWs differ from the real world, helping us to improve ocean simulations to be more realistic. In addition, we now better understand how computer simulations of future oceans, under climate change conditions, represent these extreme events. Key Points: Marine heatwaves are weaker, longer‐lasting, and less frequent in models than in observationsThe higher the model resolution, the less biased the marine heatwave metricsEddy‐permitting models can be used for global marine heatwave analyses, but eddy‐rich models are optimal for regional analyses [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The South Pacific decadal oscillation (SPDO) characterizes the Southern Hemisphere contribution to the Pacific-wide interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO) and is analogous to the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) centered in the North Pacific. In this study, upper ocean variability and potential predictability of the SPDO is examined in HadISST data and an atmosphere-forced ocean general circulation model. The potential predictability of the IPO-related variability is investigated in terms of both the fractional contribution made by the decadal component in the South, tropical and North Pacific Oceans and in terms of a doubly integrated first-order autoregressive (AR1) model. Despite explaining a smaller fraction of the total variance, we find larger potential predictability of the SPDO relative to the PDO. We identify distinct local drivers in the western subtropical South Pacific, where nonlinear baroclinic Rossby wave–topographic interactions act to low-pass filter decadal variability. In particular, we show that the Kermadec Ridge in the southwest Pacific enhances the decadal signature more prominently than anywhere else in the Pacific basin. Applying the doubly integrated AR1 model, we demonstrate that variability associated with the Pacific–South American pattern is a critically important atmospheric driver of the SPDO via a reddening process analogous to the relationship between the Aleutian low and PDO in the North Pacific—albeit that the relationship in the South Pacific appears to be even stronger. Our results point to the largely unrecognized importance of South Pacific processes as a key source of decadal variability and predictability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article highlights the Expert Assessment Workshop on "Decadal Climate Variability and Cross-Scale Interactions" held by the International Commission on Climate (ICCL) of the International Association of Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences (IAMAS) of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) in Beijing, China on April 16-17, 2013. Topics of the workshop include interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO), anthropogenic climate change above natural decadal, and the Asian monsoon.

Spatially and temporally homogeneous measurements of ocean temperature variability at high resolution on the continental shelf are scarce. Daily estimates of large-scale ocean properties are readily available from global ocean reanalysis products. However, the ocean models that underpin these reanalysis products tend not to have been designed for the simulation of complex coastal ocean variability. Hence, across-shelf values are often poorly represented. This study involved developing a statistical approach to more accurately and robustly represent SST on the continental shelf informed by large-scale satellite observations and reanalysis data or model output. Using the southeastern Australian shelf region as a case study, this paper demonstrates that this statistical model approach generates more accurate estimates of the inshore SST using (i) offshore SST from Bluelink Reanalysis (BRAN) and (ii) the statistical relationship between inshore and offshore SST in observations from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer. SST is separated into the mean, seasonal cycle, and residual variability, and separate models are developed for each component. The offshore locations used to inform the model are determined by taking into account (i) the quality of BRAN at each location, (ii) the strength between the inshore and offshore variability, and (iii) the proximity of the inshore and offshore locations. Model predictions are made for the continental shelf around southeastern Australia. The role of the mean circulation in providing connectivity between the shelf and the offshore regions is discussed, and how this information can be used to better inform the choice of model predictor locations, leading to a hybrid statistical-connectivity model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is regarded as the main driver of phytoplankton inter-annual variability. Remotely sensed surface chlorophyll-a (Chl-a), has made it possible to examine phytoplankton variability at a resolution and scale that allows for the investigation of climate signals such as ENSO. We provide empirical evidence of an immediate and lagged influence of ENSO on SeaWiFS and MODIS-Aqua derived global Chl-a concentrations. We use 13 years of Chl-a remotely sensed observations along with sea surface temperature (SST) observations across the Tropical and South Pacific to isolate and examine the spatial development of Chl-a anomalies during ENSO: its canonical or eastern Pacific (EP) mode, and El Niño Modoki or central Pacific (CP) mode, using the extended empirical orthogonal function (EEOF) technique. We describe how an EP ENSO phase transition affects Chl-a, and identify an interannual CP mode of variability induced spatial pattern. We argue that when ENSO is analysed as a propagating signal by the EEOF, CP ENSO is found to be more influential on Chl-a interannual to decadal variability than the canonical EP ENSO. Our results cannot confirm the independence of the two ENSO modes but clearly demonstrate that both ENSO flavors manifest a distinct OPEN ACCESS biological response. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A new and potentially skillful seasonal forecast model of tropical cyclone formation [tropical cyclogenesis (TCG)] is developed for the Australian region. The model is based on Poisson regression using the Bayesian approach. Predictor combinations are chosen using a step-by-step predictor selection. The three-predictor model based on derived indices of June-August average convective available potential energy, May-July average meridional winds at 850 hPa ( V850), and July-September geopotential height at 500 hPa produces the smallest standard error (se == 0.36) and root-mean-squared error (RMSE == 5.20) for the leave-one-out cross-validated TCG hindcasts over the 40-yr record between 1968/69-2007/08. The corresponding correlation coefficient between observed annual TCG totals and cross-validated model hindcasts is r == 0.73. Using fourfold cross validation, model hindcast skill is robust, with 85%% of the observed seasonal TCG totals hindcast within the model standard deviations. Seasonal TCG totals during ENSO events are typically well captured with RMSE == 5.14 during El Niño, and RMSE == 6.04 during La Niña years. The model is shown to be valuable in hindcasting seasonal TCG totals in the eastern Australian subregion ( r == 0.73) and also provides some skill for the western Australian region ( r == 0.42), while it not useful for the northern region. In summary, the authors find that the three-predictor Bayesian model provides substantial improvement over existing statistical TCG forecast models, with remarkably skillful hindcasts (forecasts) of Australian region and subregional seasonal TCG totals provided one month ahead of the TC season. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The connection between East Australian Current (EAC) transport variability and Australia’s east coast sea level has received little treatment in the literature. This is due in part to the complex interacting physical processes operating in the coastal zone combined with the sparsity of observations available to improve our understanding of these possible connections. This study demonstrates a statistically significant (at the >90% level) relationship between interannual to decadal time scale variations in observed estimates of the EAC transport changes and east coast sea level measured at the high-quality, long record Fort Denison tide-gauge in Sydney Harbour, Australia (33°51′18″S, 151°13′32″E). We further demonstrate, using a linear reduced-gravity ocean model, that ENSO to decadal time-scale variations and the ocean-adjusted multi-decadal trend (approx. 1 cm/decade) in observed sea level at Fort Denison are strongly connected to modulations of EAC transports by incoming westward propagating oceanic Rossby waves. We show that EAC transport and Fort Denison sea level vary in a manner expected from both Tasman Sea generated Rossby waves, which account for the interannual and multi-annual variability, and remotely forced (from east of New Zealand) Rossby wave connections through the mid-latitudes, accounting for the ocean-adjusted multi-decadal trend observed at the New South Wales coast – with the regional-Tasman Sea forcing explaining the greatest overall proportion of EAC transport and sea-level variances. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This study investigates the response of a stochastically forced coupled atmosphere–ocean model of the equatorial Pacific to off-equatorial wind stress anomaly forcing. The intermediate-complexity coupled ENSO model comprises a linear, first baroclinic mode, ocean shallow water model with a steady-state, two–pressure level (250 and 750 mb) atmospheric component that has been linearized about a state of rest on the β plane. Estimates of observed equatorial region stochastic forcing are calculated from NCEP–NCAR reanalysis surface winds for the period 1950–2006 using singular value decomposition. The stochastic forcing is applied to the model both with and without off-equatorial region wind stress anomalies (i.e., poleward of 12.5° latitude). It is found that the multiyear changes in the equatorial Pacific thermocline depth “background state” induced by off-equatorial forcing can affect the amplitude of modeled sea surface temperature anomalies by up to 1°C. Moreover, off-equatorial wind stress anomalies increased the modeled amplitude of the two biggest El Niño events in the twentieth century (1982/83 and 1997/98) by more than 0.5°C, resulting in a more realistic modeled response. These equatorial changes driven by off-equatorial region wind stress anomalies are highly predictable to two years in advance and may be useful as a physical basis to enhance multiyear probabilistic predictions of ENSO indices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Marine heatwaves can have devastating impacts on marine species and habitats, often with flow-on effects to human communities and livelihoods. This is of particular importance to Pacific Island countries that rely heavily on coastal and ocean resources, and for which projected increases in future marine heatwave (MHW) frequency, intensity, and duration could be detrimental across the Pacific Island region. In this study, we investigate MHWs in the tropical western and central Pacific Ocean region, focusing on observed MHWs, their associated impacts, and future projections using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations under a low (SSP1–2.6) and a high (SSP5–8.5) greenhouse gas emissions scenario. Documented impacts from "Moderate" mean intensity MHW events in Fiji, Samoa, and Palau, that were categorised as "Strong" at their peak, included fish and invertebrate mortality and coral bleaching. Based on CMIP6 multi-model mean estimates, and relative to current baselines, "Moderate" intensity MHWs are projected to increase from recent historical (1995–2014) values of 10–50 days per year (dpy) across the region to the equivalent of >100 dpy by the year 2050 under the low emissions scenario, and > 200 dpy nearer the equator. Under the high emissions scenario, 200 dpy of Moderate MHW intensities are projected across most of the region by 2050, with >300 dpy nearer the equator. For the most intense "Extreme" category of MHW, estimates range from <1 dpy under the current climate to >50 dpy projected under the high emissions scenario by 2050. In contrast, "Extreme" MHWs are projected to increase to <5 dpy by 2050 under the low emissions scenario, highlighting the importance for Pacific Island nations that global emissions more closely follow the low emissions scenario trajectory. • Marine heatwaves are impacting Pacific Island communities. • Projected increase in marine heatwave metrics in tropical central-western Pacific. • Poses threats to tropical central-western Pacific Island nation food security. • Case studies and impacts in Fiji, Samoa and Palau. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many modeling studies have been carried out to investigate the role of oceanic Rossby waves linking the off-equatorial and equatorial Pacific Ocean. Although the equatorial ocean response to off-equatorial wind stress forcing alone tends to be relatively small, it is clear that off-equatorial oceanic Rossby waves affect equatorial Pacific Ocean variability on interannual through to interdecadal time scales. In the present study, a hybrid coupled model (HCM) of the equatorial Pacific (between 12.5°S and 12.5°N) was developed and is used to estimate the magnitude of equatorial region variability arising from off-equatorial (poleward of 12.5° latitude) wind stress forcing. The HCM utilizes a reduced-gravity ocean shallow-water model and a statistical atmosphere derived from monthly output from a 100-yr Australian Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre (now the Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research) coupled general circulation model integration. The equatorial region wind stress forcing is found to dominate both the interannual and interdecadal SST variability. The equatorial response to off-equatorial wind stress forcing alone is insufficient to initiate an atmospheric feedback that significantly amplifies the original equatorial region variability. Consequently, the predictability of equatorial region SST anomalies (SSTAs) could be limited to ∼1 yr (the maximum time it takes an oceanic Rossby wave to cross the Pacific Ocean basin in the equatorial region). However, the results also suggest that the addition of off-equatorial wind stress forcing to the HCM leads to variations in equatorial Pacific background SSTA of up to almost one standard deviation. This off-equatorially forced portion of the equatorial SSTA could prove critical for thresholds of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) because they can constructively interfere with equatorially forced SSTA of the same sign to produce significant equatorial region ENSO anomalies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The large-scale distribution and changes in Southwest Pacific subtropical mode water (STMW) are investigated and discussed. The paper presents for the first time geographic maps showing the spatial distribution of STMW thicknesses, with a vertical temperature gradient <2.0°C/100m occupying the 14–20°C range below the mixed layer depth, across the entire Southwest Pacific region. STMW changes in areal thickness extent, vertical cross-sectional area along selected transects, and total volume, are examined on seasonal and interannual time scales between 1973 and 1988. We find that STMW extends across the entire width of the Tasman Sea in a very broad swath between the Tropical Convergence in the north (just to the south of New Caledonia), the southeast Australian coast in the west to as far south as 39°S (likely due to the southward extension of the EAC), and eastwards along the Southern STMW boundary in a meandering pathway that broadly follows the Tasman Front. The total STMW volume across the region (i.e., west of 180°) varies seasonally by a factor of more than three between the estimated maximum of 6.6 (±0.5)×1014 m3 in October and minimum of 1.9 (±0.4)×1014 m3 in May. Interannual variations O (±0.5×1014 m3) are also observed in the spatial extent of the thick mode water and its total volume. El Niño composite maps show an anomalous thickening of the STMW during the El Niño year with October positive thickness anomalies in excess of +20m (total volume anomaly of +0.6×1014 m3) manifested throughout the subtropical gyre interior as far north as New Caledonia. Total volume anomalies tend to be positive from January of the El Niño year through to the July following (18 months). The maximum correlation coefficient r =−0.3 between 3-monthly STMW volume anomalies and the Southern Oscillation index is statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. We conclude that during the anomalous cooling of the upper Southwest Pacific Ocean in the El Niño year, winter-time convection and STMW formation is enhanced across the region resulting in an El Niño – Southern Oscillation climate signal that is identifiable below the mixed layer by the increased STMW volume which persists through to the following winter. Finally, some evidence for the possible decadal modulation of the STMW variability is also discussed. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre CGCM and a linear first baroclinic-mode ocean shallow-water model (SWM) are used to investigate ocean dynamic forcing mechanisms of the equatorial Pacific Ocean interdecadal sea surface temperature (SST) variability. An EOF analysis of the 13-yr low-pass Butterworth-filtered SST anomalies from a century-time-scale CGCM simulation reveals an SST anomaly spatial pattern and time variability consistent with the interdecadal Pacific oscillation. Results from an SWM simulation forced with wind stresses from the CGCM simulation are shown to compare well with the CGCM, and as such the SWM is then used to investigate the roles of “uncoupled” equatorial wind stress forcing, off-equatorial wind stress forcing (OffEqWF), and Rossby wave reflection at the western Pacific Ocean boundary, on the decadal equatorial thermocline depth anomalies. Equatorial Pacific wind stresses are shown to explain a large proportion of the overall variance in the equatorial thermocline depth anomalies. However, OffEqWF beyond 12.5° latitude produces an interdecadal signature in the Niño-4 (Niño-3) region that explains approximately 10% (1.5%) of the filtered control simulation variance. Rossby wave reflection at the western Pacific boundary is shown to underpin the OffEqWF contribution to these equatorial anomalies. The implications of this result for the predictability of the decadal variations of thermocline depth are investigated with results showing that OffEqWF generates an equatorial response in the Niño-3 region up to 3 yr after the wind stress forcing is switched off. Further, a statistically significant correlation is found between thermocline depth anomalies in the off-equatorial zone and the Niño-3 region, with the Niño-3 region lagging by approximately 2 yr. The authors conclude that there is potential predictability of the OffEqWF equatorial thermocline depth anomalies with lead times of up to 3 yr when taking into account the amplitudes and locations of off-equatorial region Rossby waves. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates oscillatory and propagating patterns of normalized surface and subsurface temperature anomalies (from the seasonal cycle) in the southwest Pacific Ocean using an extended empirical orthogonal function (EEOF) analysis. The temperature data (and errors) are from the Digital Atlas of Southwest Pacific upper Ocean Temperatures (DASPOT). These data are 3 monthly in time (January, April, July, and October), 2° × 2° in space, and 5 m in the vertical to 450-m depths. The temperature anomalies in the EEOF analysis are normalized by the objective mapping temperature errors at each grid point. They are also Butterworth filtered in the 3–7-yr band to examine interannual variations in the temperature field. The oscillating and propagating patterns of the modes are examined across four vertical levels: the surface, and 100-, 250-, and 450-m depths. The dominant mode EEOF (70% of the total variance of the filtered data) oscillates in a 4–4.5-yr quasi-periodic manner that is consistent with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Anomalies peak first at the surface in the subtropics between New Caledonia and Fiji (centered around 17°S, 177°E), then 6 months later in the tropical far west centered around the Solomon Islands (5°S, 153°–157°E), with a maximum at the base of the mixed layer (100 m) and upper thermocline (250 m), and then eastward in the northeast of the southwest Pacific region (0°–10°S, 160°E–180°). Mode 2 (25% variance of the filtered data) has a periodicity of 3–3.5 yr, with centers of action in all four vertical levels. The mode-2 patterns are consistent with variations in the subtropical gyre circulation, including the East Australian Current and its separation, and are continuous with the Tasman Front. Two spatial dipoles are apparent: (i) one in sea surface temperature (SST) at about 5°S, straddling west–east either side of the Solomon Islands, consistent with the classic Pacific-wide ENSO SST anomaly mode, and (ii) a subsurface dipole pattern, with centers in the Solomon Islands region at 100- and 250-m depths, and the western Tasman Sea (27°–33°S, 157°–161°E) at 250- and 450-m depths, consistent with dynamic changes in the gyre intensity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper seeks to address some of the limitations in previous statistical forecast models of tropical cyclogenesis through the development of a series of Poisson regression models on a 2° latitude × 5° longitude spatial grid and a monthly grid in time. The “Gray” parameters [low-level relative vorticity, vertical wind shear parameter, ocean thermal energy, (saturated) equivalent potential temperature gradient, and middle-troposphere humidity] were analyzed as potential predictors of tropical cyclogenesis for the Australian–southwest Pacific Ocean region. Various predictor lead times of up to 5 months were investigated, with the most significant Poisson regression models being cross validated, and the skill of their hindcasts evaluated. The Poisson regression model incorporating a combination of saturated equivalent potential temperature gradients at various leads was found to be the most skillful in hindcasting the temporal (phase and amplitude) variability of tropical cyclogenesis for the Australian–southwest Pacific region, with a correlation coefficient between the observed and cross-validated hindcast time series of 0.54 (significant at the 99% level), and a root- mean-square error 26% better than climatology. Models using the thermal (ocean thermal energy, saturated equivalent potential temperature gradient, and middle-troposphere humidity) and all (thermal plus low-level relative vorticity and vertical wind shear parameter) predictor variables showed the most skill in hindcasting the spatial distribution of cyclogenesis in this region. The model hindcast skill in predicting individual tropical cyclone occurrences and nonoccurrences was also examined. The all-Gray parameter Poisson regression model was found to correctly hindcast up to 72.6% of cyclogenesis events and nearly 70% of nonoccurrences in the Australian—southwest Pacific region. The model design enabled the investigation of tropical cyclogenesis on subregional/subseasonal scales, with promising model hindcast skill evident. The results presented herein suggest that useful and more detailed forecasts may be possible in the future in addition to those currently provided at the basin-wide and seasonal scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study attempts to reproduce the salient features of the variability in the depth of the thermocline in the marginally eddy-resolving Parallel Ocean Climate Model (POCM) of Semtner and Chervin, using a simple linear vorticity model that only permits local Ekman pumping and the propagation of long Rossby waves. The dynamic upper-ocean variability in the POCM is examined in response to changes in daily European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts wind stresses across the tropical and subtropical Pacific Ocean (31°S–31°N) between 1983 and 1989. The POCM provides a complete and physically consistent representation of the state of the Pacific Ocean, with the phase of the thermocline depth anomalies being consistent with the observed El Niño/La Niña variations in the near-equatorial zone and southwest Pacific during the decade. A series of vorticity model sensitivity experiments, incorporating scaled Rossby wave speeds based on recent observations from the TOPEX/Poseidon satellite altimeter, is used to examine and compare the phase and amplitude variations in the depth of the internal surface against changes in the depth of the 14°C isotherm (D14, used as a proxy for the depth of the thermocline, or pycnocline) as simulated in the POCM. This study demonstrates that the simple linear vorticity model can reproduce the Pacific Ocean thermocline depth anomalies in the interior of the subtropical gyres as simulated by the POCM. These variations are both qualitatively and quantitatively consistent with an ocean forced by only Ekman pumping and Rossby waves that traverse the basin, with isolated topographic and background influences. Further, a number of experiments demonstrate that the phase similarities, from correlation analyses, between results from the POCM and those from the simple dynamical model are statistically significant (at the 95% level) across the majority of the 11°S, 11°N, and 21°N transects in t... [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a modified objective mapping technique that takes advantage of the strong vertical cor-relations in ocean temperature profiles. This technique has been used here successfully to generate a uniformly gridded upper-ocean temperature dataset in the southwest Pacific Ocean region from most of the available bathythermograph casts collected between 08--508S and 1408E--1808, covering the period from 1955 to 1988. Important advantages of this technique over most previous objective methods are its (i) ability to deal with four-dimensional data (space and time), (ii) improved estimate of the first-guess (polynomial) mean, (iii) preservation of the vertical structure of the ocean temperature data, (iv) computational efficiency, and (v) objective error analysis. The technique combines empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, using the singular value decomposition, and objective mapping. In this application of the method, a digital "atlas" of upper-ocean temperatures has been created on a grid 28 328, at 5-m depth intervals, and comprises a monthly climatology and two three-monthly time series (January, April, July, and October). The time series include a dataset from 1955 to 1988 to 100-m depth, and a shorter period, deeper dataset from 1973 to 1988 to 450-m depth. Only the first five vertical EOFs are needed to explain about 90% of the total variance in the data and to within the a priori noise estimates. The full four-dimensional temperature field was reconstructed using objective maps of the horizontal coefficients corresponding to each of the significant vertical EOFs. Although the method is statistically sub-optimal, the final mapped temperature fields are unbiased and consistent with the a priori noise. In this application, the computing time is reduced by a factor of 36, making the mapping procedure feasible on modern workstations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) have caused devasting ecological and socioeconomic impacts worldwide. Understanding the connection of regional events to large‐scale climatic drivers is key for enhancing predictability and mitigating MHW impacts. Despite the reported connection between MHWs globally and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), establishing statistically significant links between different types of ENSO events and MHWs remains challenging due to the limited duration of observational data. Here, we use 10,000 years of simulations from a Linear Inverse Model (LIM) to address this issue. Our findings reveal distinct connections between MHWs and ENSO, with diverging influences from different flavors of El Niño and La Niña events. In addition, under long‐lasting El Niño conditions, the likelihood of MHWs increases by up to 12‐fold in the Indian and Pacific Oceans. This study highlights the global connections between ENSO diversity and variations in MHW events. Plain Language Summary: Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are periods of prolonged, extremely warm ocean temperatures that have caused widespread ecological and socioeconomic impacts worldwide. The predictability of these events can be improved if we can find connections between regional events and larger climatic drivers, such as El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Both the positive phase of ENSO, El Niño, and its negative phase, La Niña, have been linked to MHWs in various parts of the world. However, not all El Niño and La Niña events are the same, leading to uncertainty in the relationship between ENSO and MHWs. Due to the limited duration of the observational record, a major issue arises with the lack of examples of different types of El Niño and La Niña events in observations. To overcome this challenge, we utilized 10,000 years of simulated data from a near‐global linear inverse model to generate many more samples of possible global ocean temperature configurations. We find strong differences between regional MHWs and different types of El Niño and La Niña events. In some regions, the probability of MHWs is 12 times more likely under long‐lasting El Niño events. Key Points: Robust links between global marine heatwaves and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) diversity are established using 10,000 years of samples from a linear inverse modelMarine heatwave (MHW) intensity and frequency in the Northeast Pacific increase significantly during Central Pacific El Niño eventsMHW intensity and frequency are significantly enhanced in Western Australia during Central Pacific La Niña events [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The influence of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) on surface air temperature over Iran is examined using daily data from meteorological stations from 1979 to 2015. Composites of daily surface air temperature anomalies are positive in MJO phases 1 and 8 and negative in MJO phases 3–4 with broader region positive tendencies also in MJO phases 2 and 7, and negative tendencies in MJO phases 5–6. This variability is associated with horizontal temperature advection, whereby the southerly (northward) winds act to heat and the northerly (southward) winds cool Iran, in association with the MJO. Further, we find that daily minimum surface air temperatures respond more strongly to the MJO than do daily maximum surface temperatures. These signals correspond to cloudy and humid conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A stochastically forced linear inverse model (LIM) of the combined modes of variability from the tropical and South Pacific Oceans is used to investigate the linear growth of optimal initial perturbations and to identify the spatiotemporal features of the stochastic forcing associated with the atmospheric Pacific–South American patterns 1 and 2 (PSA1 and PSA2). Optimal initial perturbations are shown to project onto El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and South Pacific decadal oscillation (SPDO), where the inclusion of subsurface South Pacific Ocean temperature variability significantly increases the multiyear linear predictability of the deterministic system. We show that the optimal extratropical sea surface temperature (SST) precursor is associated with the South Pacific meridional mode, which takes from 7 to 9 months to linearly evolve into the final ENSO and SPDO peaks in both the observations and as simulated in an atmosphere-forced ocean model. The optimal subsurface precursor resembles its peak phase, but with a weak amplitude, representing oceanic Rossby waves in the extratropical South Pacific. The stochastic forcing is estimated as the residual by removing the deterministic dynamics from the actual tendency under a centered difference approximation. The resulting stochastic forcing time series satisfies the Gaussian white noise assumption of the LIM. We show that the PSA-like variability is strongly associated with stochastic SST forcing in the tropical and South Pacific Oceans and contributes not only to excite the optimal initial perturbations associated with ENSO and the SPDO but in general to activate the entire stochastic SST forcing, especially in austral summer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A multivariate linear inverse model (LIM) is developed to demonstrate the mechanisms and seasonal predictability of the dominant modes of variability from the tropical and South Pacific Oceans. We construct a LIM whose covariance matrix is a combination of principal components derived from tropical and extratropical sea surface temperature, and South Pacific Ocean vertically averaged temperature anomalies. Eigen-decomposition of the linear deterministic system yields stationary and/or propagating eigenmodes, of which the least damped modes resemble El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the South Pacific decadal oscillation (SPDO). We show that although the oscillatory periods of ENSO and SPDO are distinct, they have very close damping time scales, indicating that the predictive skill of the surface ENSO and SPDO is comparable. The most damped noise modes occur in the midlatitude South Pacific Ocean, reflecting atmospheric eastward-propagating Rossby wave train variability. We argue that these ocean wave trains occur due to the high-frequency atmospheric variability of the Pacific–South American pattern imprinting onto the surface ocean. The ENSO spring predictability barrier is apparent in LIM predictions initialized in March–May (MAM) but displays a significant correlation skill of up to ~3 months. For the SPDO, the predictability barrier tends to appear in June–September (JAS), indicating remote but delayed influences from the tropics. We demonstrate that subsurface processes in the South Pacific Ocean are the main source of decadal variability and further that by characterizing the upper ocean temperature contribution in the LIM, the seasonal predictability of both ENSO and the SPDO variability is increased. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The intra‐seasonal variation of precipitation over Iran is examined in terms of the combined effects of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), using daily observations during the wet season (October–May) from 1961 to 2015. We have examined how the probability of daily rainfall above the upper tercile varies across MJO phases during positive and negative IOD and ENSO states. The results indicate that the response of Iran's wet‐season rainfall to the MJO is affected more by large‐scale atmospheric variations associated with the IOD than by ENSO. The negative (positive) IOD strengthens (suppresses) the MJO–rainfall relationship in the wet and dry MJO phases. The variation in the atmospheric variables (relative humidity and vertical velocity) indicates more (less) humidity and upwards (downwards) motion which increases (decreases) precipitation in wet (dry) MJO phases during the negative IOD. The rainfall relationship with the MJO during the negative IOD is statistically significant, while the relationship during the positive IOD is weak; and no significant relationship is found during either phase of ENSO. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article focuses on a research which investigates two regions such as Northern Australia and the Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska, which experienced their most intense marine heat waves (MHWs) in the 35-year record in 2016. Information about observations consisting of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) is presented.

Rainfall in tropical Australia is a critical resource for the agricultural sector. However, its high variability implores improvements in our understanding of its variability. Australian tropical rainfall is influenced by both the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) on intraseasonal time scales and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on interannual time scales. This study examines the joint relationship between the MJO, ENSO, and tropical Australian rainfall variability. We analyze daily precipitation data from stations across tropical Australia during the wet season (November to April). The wet season rainfall response to the MJO is found to be greater during El Niño than La Niña. We demonstrate that this relationship is not due to the statistical relationship between the MJO and ENSO indices but instead due to differences in how the MJO modulates the large-scale circulation during El Niño versus during La Niña. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The marine waters across Tasmanian's eastern continental shelf are biologically productive and home to economically important fisheries and aquaculture industries. However, the marine climate there is poorly understood. We use a high-resolution (∼2 km in the horizontal), three-dimensional ocean model for eastern Tasmania (ETAS) to examine the simulated mean state and seasonal cycle of temperature, salinity and three-dimensional flow field, and the evaluation of daily model outputs against in situ and remote observations for the 1993–2014 period. We also use the model to examine the roles of river input and tidal forcing. The model is evaluated against remotely-sensed sea surface temperature and in-situ observations of sea level and subsurface temperature, salinity, and currents. The mean state demonstrates the influence of two well-known boundary currents (the East Australian Current, EAC, and the Zeehan Current, ZC) as well as the effects of local freshwater input from river runoff. The EAC is dominant in summer and the ZC in winter; the influence of the EAC also increases northwards and in the offshore direction. In addition, the model indicates the presence of a semi-permanent subsurface (50–100 m depth) northward flow trapped near the coast. Cool freshwater runoff from the Derwent and Huon Rivers directly impacts the temperature and salinity in their estuaries but has little influence further across the shelf. Tidal forcing impacts the mean state through tide-river interactions which flush Frederick Henry Bay and Norfolk Bay with freshwater. Tidal forcing also impacts the variability of temperature all along the coastline, most likely due to changes in the turbulent mixing near to the coast. The ETAS model output data are available as a high-resolution representation of the mean state, seasonal variations, and interannual variability of Tasmania's eastern continental shelf marine climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights: [•] General technique for improving estimates of extremes from ocean and climate models. [•] Model for extreme values using simulations of general climate (mean, variance, etc.). [•] Bayesian approach can be used to assess uncertainty and significance of estimates. [•] Demonstrated for extreme sea surface temperatures off southeastern Australia. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Evidence suggests that the magnitude and frequency of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) changes on interdecadal time scales. This is manifest in a distinct shift in ENSO behavior during the late 1970s. This study investigates mechanisms that may force this interdecadal variability and, in particular, on modulations driven by extratropical Rossby waves. Results from oceanic shallow-water models show that the Rossby wave theory can explain small near-zonal changes in equatorial thermocline depth that can alter the amplitude of simulated ENSO events. However, questions remain over whether the same mechanism operates in more complex coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) and what the magnitude of the resulting change would be. Experiments carried out in a state-of-the-art z-coordinate primitive equation model confirm that the Rossby wave mechanism does indeed operate. The effects of these interactions are further investigated using a partial coupling (PC) technique. This allows for the isolation of the role of wind stress–forced oceanic exchanges between the extratropics and the tropics and the subsequent modulation of ENSO variability. It is found that changes in the background state of the equatorial Pacific thermocline depth, induced by a fixed off-equatorial wind stress anomaly, can significantly affect the probability of ENSO events occurring. This confirms the results obtained from simpler models and further validates theories that rely on oceanic wave dynamics to generate Pacific Ocean interdecadal variability. This indicates that an improved predictive capability for seasonal-to-interannual ENSO variability could be achieved through a better understanding of extratropical-to-tropical Pacific Ocean transfers and western boundary processes. Furthermore, such an understanding would provide a physical basis to enhance multiyear probabilistic predictions of ENSO indices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Marine cold‐spell (MCS) metrics—such as frequency and intensity—are decreasing globally, while marine heatwave (MHW) metrics are increasing due to sea surface temperature (SST) warming. However, the concomitant changes in MHW and MCS metrics, and whether SST warming can similarly explain the decreasing MCS metrics remain unclear. Here, we provide a comparative global assessment of these changes based on satellite SST observations over 1982–2020. Across the globe, we find distinct differences in mean MHW and MCS metrics. Furthermore, decreasing trends in MCS metrics are not necessarily aligned with increasing trends in MHW metrics. While differences in intensity trends are mainly explained by SST variance trends, differences in trends of annual days are less clear. Overall, decreasing MCS days and intensities are found to be largely driven by warming SST, rather than SST variance changes. Therefore, it is expected that MCS days and intensity will continue diminishing under global warming. Plain Language Summary: Persistent ocean temperature extremes—known as marine heatwaves (MHWs) and marine cold‐spells (MCSs) —can cause severe impacts on marine ecosystems and fisheries. MHWs have been shown to be increasing in frequency and intensity over the last decades, which is largely explained by the mean warming of sea surface temperature (SST). Although MCSs have decreased in frequency and have weakened globally, we examine whether long‐term SST warming can similarly explain the changes in MCSs. To address this, we characterize MCSs and MHWs using 39 years (1982–2020) of SST satellite observations. We find that the changes in annual MHW days and MHW intensity are not entirely commensurate with changes in annual MCS days and MCS intensity. Our findings imply that there is a non‐uniform shift in temperature extremes, and therefore in SST variations. Statistical tests on the decrease in annual MCS days and MCS intensity, however, suggest that these can be largely explained by mean warming. Key Points: Marine cold‐spell (MCS) intensity and annual MCS days (the number of MCS days in each year) are decreasing across most global oceansThe decreasing MCS annual days and intensity can be largely explained by sea surface temperature warming, in line with global warmingThe differences between MCS and marine heatwave intensity trends can be largely explained by changes in sea surface temperature variance [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The influence of ocean surface currents on the global wind-wave field is revisited. State-of-the-art numerical spectral wave model simulations with and without surface currents taken from an eddy resolving global ocean reanalysis were compared. As a global average, simulations forced with currents display significantly better agreement with altimeter derived wave heights. The bias and root mean square error in significant wave heights are mostly reduced when including current forcing, especially in the Southern Ocean. An overall improvement in wave periods and wave direction is also seen when comparing model outputs with the Australian and United States buoy network observations. Including surface ocean current forcing in wave simulations reduces the simulated wave heights in most areas of the world, due to a decreased relative wind given by co-flowing winds and currents. Current-induced refraction generates important changes in wave direction in western boundary current and tropical regions. Furthermore, large and broad changes in friction velocity, atmosphere-to-ocean energy flux, whitecap cover and Stokes drift velocities are observed in equatorial regions. Finally, the importance of the wave model resolution for representing wave–current interactions was tested by comparing results from eddy-permitting (lower resolution) and eddy-resolving (higher resolution) configurations. We conclude that the main patterns of current-induced refraction are well represented in both cases, albeit that the higher resolution simulation represents these in a more detailed manner. Finally, the implications that the observed wave–current interactions have on several ocean processes are discussed. • Wave model performance improves significantly by including surface currents forcing. • Equatorial and Western Boundary Current areas show great changes in wave direction. • Wave–current interactions help to better model intense wave events in East Australia. • There are great changes in friction velocity and whitecap cover in Tropical areas. • Eddy-permitting simulations properly depict the current-induced refraction patterns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Southwest Pacific nations are among some of the worst impacted and most vulnerable globally in terms of tropical cyclone (TC)-induced flooding and accompanying risks. This study objectively quantifies the fractional contribution of TCs to extreme rainfall (hereafter, TC contributions) in the context of climate variability and change. We show that TC contributions to extreme rainfall are substantially enhanced during active phases of the Madden–Julian Oscillation and by El Niño conditions (particularly over the eastern southwest Pacific region); this enhancement is primarily attributed to increased TC activity during these event periods. There are also indications of increasing intensities of TC-induced extreme rainfall events over the past few decades. A key part of this work involves development of sophisticated Bayesian regression models for individual island nations in order to better understand the synergistic relationships between TC-induced extreme rainfall and combinations of various climatic drivers that modulate the relationship. Such models are found to be very useful for not only assessing probabilities of TC- and non-TC induced extreme rainfall events but also evaluating probabilities of extreme rainfall for cases with different underlying climatic conditions. For example, TC-induced extreme rainfall probability over Samoa can vary from ~ 95 to ~ 75% during a La Niña period, if it coincides with an active or inactive phase of the MJO, and can be reduced to ~ 30% during a combination of El Niño period and inactive phase of the MJO. Several other such cases have been assessed for different island nations, providing information that have potentially important implications for planning and preparing for TC risks in vulnerable Pacific Island nations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recently, El Niño diversity has been paid much attention because of its different global impacts. However, most studies have focused on a single warm peak in sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs), either in the central Pacific or the eastern Pacific Ocean. Here, we demonstrate from observational analyses that several recent El Niño events show double warm peaks in SSTA—called "double-peaked (DP) El Niño"—that have only been observed since 2000. The DP El Niño has two warm centers, which grow concurrently but separately, in both the central and eastern Pacific. In general, the atmospheric and oceanic patterns of the DP El Niño are similar to those of the warm-pool (WP) El Niño from the development phase, such that the central Pacific peak is developed by the zonal advective feedback and reduced wind speed anomalies. However, a distinctive difference exists in the eastern Pacific where the DP El Niño has a second SSTA peak. In addition, the DP El Niño shows more distinctive anomalous precipitation along the Pacific intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) when compared with the WP El Niño. We demonstrate that the peculiar precipitation anomalies along the Pacific ITCZ play a critical role in enhancing the equatorial westerly wind stress anomalies, which help to develop the eastern SSTA peak by deepening the thermocline in the eastern Pacific. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Weather systems in the southern Indian Ocean (SIO) drive synoptic-scale precipitation variability in East Antarctica and southern Australia. Improved understanding of these dynamical linkages is beneficial to diagnose long-term climate changes from climate proxy records as well as informing regional weather and climate forecasts. Self-organizing maps (SOMs) are used to group daily 500-hPa geopotential height (z500; ERA-Interim) anomalies into nine regional synoptic types based on their dominant patterns over the SIO (30°-75°S, 40°-180°E) from January 1979 to October 2018. The pattern anomalies represented include four meridional, three mixed meridional-zonal, one zonal, and one transitional node. The frequency of the meridional nodes shows limited association with the phase of the southern annular mode (SAM), especially during September-November. The zonal and mixed patterns were nevertheless strongly and significantly correlated with SAM, although the regional synoptic representation of SAM+ conditions was not zonally symmetric and was represented by three separate nodes. We recommend consideration of how different synoptic conditions vary the atmospheric representation of SAM+ in any given season in the SIO. These different types of SAM+ mean a hemispheric index fails to capture the regional variability in surface weather conditions that is primarily driven by the synoptic variability rather than the absolute polarity of the SAM. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change poses significant emerging risks to biodiversity, ecosystem function and associated socioecological systems. Adaptation responses must be initiated in parallel with mitigation efforts, but resources are limited. As climate risks are not distributed equally across taxa, ecosystems and processes, strategic prioritization of research that addresses stakeholder‐relevant knowledge gaps will accelerate effective uptake into adaptation policy and management action. After a decade of climate change adaptation research within the Australian National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, we synthesize the National Adaptation Research Plans for marine, terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems. We identify the key, globally relevant priorities for ongoing research relevant to informing adaptation policy and environmental management aimed at maximizing the resilience of natural ecosystems to climate change. Informed by both global literature and an extensive stakeholder consultation across all ecosystems, sectors and regions in Australia, involving thousands of participants, we suggest 18 priority research topics based on their significance, urgency, technical and economic feasibility, existing knowledge gaps and potential for cobenefits across multiple sectors. These research priorities provide a unified guide for policymakers, funding organizations and researchers to strategically direct resources, maximize stakeholder uptake of resulting knowledge and minimize the impacts of climate change on natural ecosystems. Given the pace of climate change, it is imperative that we inform and accelerate adaptation progress in all regions around the world.The capacity to make informed decisions about environmental policy and management in a changing climate relies on monitoring data, scientific analysis, strategic prioritization of new research, and the effective synthesis and communication of technical resources and knowledge. Here we identify the most important research required to address stakeholder‐relevant knowledge gaps that will increase their capacity to make the best decisions possible to minimize the impacts of climate change on natural ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

El Niño and La Niña, the warm and cold phases of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), cause significant year-to-year disruptions in global climate, including in the atmosphere, oceans, and cryosphere. Australia is one of the countries where its climate, including droughts and flooding rains, is highly sensitive to the temporal and spatial variations of ENSO. The dramatic impacts of ENSO on the environment, society, health, and economies worldwide make the application of reliable ENSO predictions a powerful way to manage risks and resources. An improved understanding of ENSO dynamics in a changing climate has the potential to lead to more accurate and reliable ENSO predictions by facilitating improved forecast systems. This motivated an Australian national workshop on ENSO dynamics and prediction that was held in Sydney, Australia, in November 2017. This workshop followed the aftermath of the 2015/16 extreme El Niño, which exhibited different characteristics to previous extreme El Niños and whose early evolution since 2014 was challenging to predict. This essay summarizes the collective workshop perspective on recent progress and challenges in understanding ENSO dynamics and predictability and improving forecast systems. While this essay discusses key issues from an Australian perspective, many of the same issues are important for other ENSO-affected countries and for the international ENSO research community. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous studies have shown that the skill of seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the North Indian Ocean (NIO) tends to be poor. This paper investigates the forecast potential of TC formation, trajectories and points of landfall in the NIO region using an index of the stratospheric quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) as the predictor variable in a new statistical seasonal forecast model. Genesis was modelled by kernel density estimation, tracks were fitted using a generalized additive model (GAM) approach with an Euler integration step, and landfall location was estimated using a country mask. The model was trained on 30 years of TC observations (1980–2009) from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and the QBO index at lags from 0 to 6 months. Over this time period, and within each season and QBO phase, the kernel density estimator modelled the distribution of genesis points, and the cyclone trajectories were then fit by the GAM along the observed cyclone tracks as smooth functions of location. Trajectories were simulated from randomly selected genesis points in the kernel density estimates. Ensembles of cyclone paths were traced, taking account of random innovations every 6‐hr along the GAM‐fitted velocity fields, to determine the points of landfall. Lead–lag analysis was used to assess the best predictor timescales for TC forecast potential. We found that the best model utilized the QBO index with a 3‐month lead. Two hindcast validation methods were applied. First, leave‐one‐out cross‐validation was performed where the country of landfall was decided by the majority vote of the simulated tracks. Second, the distances between the landfall locations in the observations and simulations were calculated. Application of seasonal forecast analysis further indicated that including information on the state of the QBO has the potential to improve the skill of TC seasonal forecasts in the NIO region. Previous studies have shown that the skill of seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the North Indian Ocean (NIO) tends to be poor. A statistical seasonal forecast model of TC formation, tracks, and landfall for the NIO region has been developed and evaluated. Using the quasi‐biennial oscillation, the benefit of the forecast model is for potential predictability 3 months in advance that provides approximately a 25% improvement over results from the corresponding climatological model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Central American mid‐summer drought (MSD) is the decline of precipitation during the middle of the wet season (July and August) over Central America and southern Mexico. It affects agriculture and favours the initiation of bushfires in Costa Rica's national parks, particularly during El Niño years. The MSD is a seasonal phenomenon that varies in intensity and timing inter‐annually. The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) has been shown to influence Costa Rican rainfall on intra‐seasonal time scales, and therefore may be important to the MSD. In this study we use rainfall data from seven stations in Costa Rica to analyse the MJO's influence on the timing of the onset and end of the MSD. We find that the MSD is more likely to start and end in MJO Phases 1 and 8, respectively. Our findings indicate enhanced MSD predictability on intra‐seasonal time scales, which could be beneficial to agricultural planning in Costa Rica. In this study we use rainfall data from seven stations in Costa Rica to analyse the Madden–Julian oscillation's (MJO) influence on the timing of the onset and end of the mid‐summer drought (MSD). We find that the MSD is more likely to start and end in MJO Phases 1 and 8, respectively. Our findings have the potential to improve MSD predictability, which could be beneficial to agricultural planning in Costa Rica. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Considerable attention has been directed at understanding the consequences and impacts of long-term anthropogenic climate change. Discrete, climatically extreme events such as cyclones, floods, and heatwaves can also significantly affect regional environments and species, including humans. Climate change is expected to intensify these events and thus exacerbate their effects. Climatic extremes also occur in the ocean, and recent decades have seen many high-impact marine heatwaves (MHWs)--anomalously warm water events that may last many months and extend over thousands of square kilometers. A range of biological, economic, and political impacts have been associated with the more intense MHWs, and measuring the severity of these phenomena is becoming more important. Progress in understanding and public awareness will be facilitated by consistent description of these events. Here, we propose a detailed categorization scheme for MHWs that builds on a recently published classification, combining elements from schemes that describe atmospheric heatwaves and hurricanes. Category I, II, III, and IV MHWs are defined based on the degree to which temperatures exceed the local climatology and illustrated for 10 MHWs. While there is a long-term increase in the occurrence frequency of all MHW categories, the largest trend is a 24% increase in the area of the ocean where strong (Category II) MHWs occur. Use of this scheme can help explain why biological impacts associated with different MHWs can vary widely and provides a consistent way to compare events. We also propose a simple naming convention based on geography and year that would further enhance scientific and public awareness of these marine events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Surface waters off eastern Tasmania are a global warming hotspot. Here, mean temperatures have been rising over several decades at nearly four times the global average rate, with concomitant changes in extreme temperatures – marine heatwaves. These changes have recently caused the marine biodiversity, fisheries and aquaculture industries off Tasmania’s east coast to come under stress. In this study we quantify the long-term trends, variability and predictability of marine heatwaves off eastern Tasmania. We use a high-resolution ocean model for Tasmania’s eastern continental shelf. The ocean state over the 1993–2015 period is hindcast, providing daily estimates of the three-dimensional temperature and circulation fields. Marine heatwaves are identified at the surface and subsurface from ocean temperature time series using a consistent definition. Trends in marine heatwave frequency are positive nearly everywhere and annual marine heatwave days and penetration depths indicate significant positive changes, particularly off southeastern Tasmania. A decomposition into modes of variability indicates that the East Australian Current is the dominant driver of marine heatwaves across the domain. Self-organising maps are used to identify 12 marine heatwave types, each with its own regionality, seasonality, and associated large-scale oceanic and atmospheric circulation patterns. The implications of this work for marine ecosystems and their management were revealed through review of past impacts and stakeholder discussions regarding use of these data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the context of accelerated global change, the concept of resilience, with its roots in ecological theory and complex adaptive systems, has emerged as the favored framework for understanding and responding to the dynamics of change. Its transfer from ecological to social contexts, however, has led to the concept being interpreted in multiple ways across numerous disciplines causing significant challenges for its practical application. The aim of this paper is to improve conceptual clarity within resilience thinking so that resilience can be interpreted and articulated in ways that enhance its utility and explanatory power, not only theoretically but also operationally. We argue that the current confusion and ambiguity within resilience thinking is problematic for operationalizing the concept within policy making. To achieve our aim, we interrogate resilience interpretations used within a number of academic and practice domains in the forefront of contending with the disruptive and sometimes catastrophic effects of global change (primarily due to climate change) on ecological and human-nature systems. We demonstrate evolution and convergence among disciplines in the interpretations and theoretical underpinnings of resilience and in engagement with cross-scale considerations. From our analysis, we identify core conceptual elements to be considered in policy responses if resilience is to fulfill its potential in improving decision making for change. We offer an original classification of resilience definitions in current use and a typology of resilience interpretations. We conclude that resilience thinking must be open to alternative traditions and interpretations if it is to become a theoretically and operationally powerful paradigm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Our oceans comprise valuable assets that provide a range of social and economic benefits directly and indirectly through provisioning, regulating, cultural and supporting services. Fisheries rely on these services and are regionally important industries for many coastal communities. With a growing population and increasing demand for seafood production, impacts from climate change that alter the productivity of marine ecosystems will have flow-on implications for economic and social systems. As small coastal communities are often highly dependent on marine-based activities they are also expected to experience greater impacts from changes in productivity of marine resources than their larger and/or non-coastal counterparts. To assist coastal communities in evaluating their vulnerability to climate change we have developed a hybrid socio-ecological vulnerability index that combines an ecocentric index - i.e., an ecological vulnerability index - with a sociocentric index that focuses on adaptive capacity as a measure of vulnerability, and embeds a sustainable livelihoods approach. Through the use of an on-line tool, coastal communities can improve their understanding of their vulnerability to more appropriately adapt, embrace opportunities and minimize negative impacts that may arise from climate change and its effect on marine resource availability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) have been observed around the world and are expected to increase in intensity and frequency under anthropogenic climate change. A variety of impacts have been associated with these anomalous events, including shifts in species ranges, local extinctions and economic impacts on seafood industries through declines in important fishery species and impacts on aquaculture. Extreme temperatures are increasingly seen as important influences on biological systems, yet a consistent definition of MHWs does not exist. A clear definition will facilitate retrospective comparisons between MHWs, enabling the synthesis and a mechanistic understanding of the role of MHWs in marine ecosystems. Building on research into atmospheric heatwaves, we propose both a general and specific definition for MHWs, based on a hierarchy of metrics that allow for different data sets to be used in identifying MHWs. We generally define a MHW as a prolonged discrete anomalously warm water event that can be described by its duration, intensity, rate of evolution, and spatial extent. Specifically, we consider an anomalously warm event to be a MHW if it lasts for five or more days, with temperatures warmer than the 90th percentile based on a 30-year historical baseline period. This structure provides flexibility with regard to the description of MHWs and transparency in communicating MHWs to a general audience. The use of these metrics is illustrated for three 21st century MHWs; the northern Mediterranean event in 2003, the Western Australia ‘Ningaloo Niño’ in 2011, and the northwest Atlantic event in 2012. We recommend a specific quantitative definition for MHWs to facilitate global comparisons and to advance our understanding of these phenomena. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The annual cycle of precipitation over most parts of Central America and southern Mexico is climatologically characterized by a robust bimodal distribution, normally termed as the midsummer drought (MSD), influencing a large range of agricultural economic and public insurances. Compared to studies focusing on mechanisms underpinning the MSD, less research has been undertaken related to its climatological signatures. This is due to a lack of generally accepted methods through which to detect and quantify the bimodal precipitation accurately. The present study focuses on characterizing the MSD climatological signatures over  Central America and Mexico using daily precipitation observations between 1979 and 2017, aiming to provide a comprehensive analysis of MSD in fine scale over this region. This was completed using a new method of detection. The signatures were analyzed from three aspects, namely (1) climatological mean states and variability; (2) connections with large scale modes of climate variability (El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO)); and (3) the potential afforded by statistical modelling. The development of MSDs across the region is attributed to changes of surface wind–pressure composites, characterized by anomalously negative (positive) surface pressure and onshore (offshore) winds during the peak (trough) of precipitation. ENSO’s modulation of MSDs is also shown by modifying the surface wind–pressure patterns through MSD periods, inducing the intensified North Atlantic Subtropical High and associated easterlies from the Caribbean region, which induce relatively weak precipitation at corresponding time points and subsequently intensify the MSD magnitude and extend the MSD period. Building on previous research which showed MSDs tend to start/end in MJO phases 1 and 8, a fourth–order polynomial was used here to statistically model the precipitation time series during the rainy season. We show that the strength of the bimodal precipitation can be well modelled by the coefficient of the polynomial terms, and the intra-seasonal variability is largely covered by the MJO indices. Using two complete MJO cycles and the polynomial, the bimodal precipitation during the rainy season over Central America and Mexico is synoptically explained, largely contributing to our understanding of the MJO’s modulation on the MSD. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The complex nature of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is often simplified through the use of conceptual models, each of which offers a different perspective on the ocean-atmosphere feedbacks underpinning the ENSO cycle. One theory, the unified oscillator, combines a variety of conceptual frameworks in the form of a coupled system of delay differential equations. The system produces a self-sustained oscillation on interannual time scales. While the unified oscillator is assumed to provide a more complete conceptual framework of ENSO behaviors than the models it incorporates, its formulation and performance have not been systematically assessed. This paper investigates the accuracy of the unified oscillator through its ability to replicate the ENSO cycle modeled by flux-forced output from the Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator Ocean Model (ACCESS-OM). The anomalous sea surface temperature equation reproduces the main features of the corresponding tendency modeled by ACCESS-OM reasonably well. However, the remaining equations for the thermocline depth anomaly and zonal wind stress anomalies are unable to accurately replicate the corresponding tendencies in ACCESS-OM. Modifications to the unified oscillator, including a diagnostic form of the zonal wind stress anomaly equations, improve its ability to emulate simulated ENSO tendencies. Despite these improvements, the unified oscillator model is less adept than the delayed oscillator model it incorporates in capturing ENSO behavior in ACCESS-OM, bringing into question its usefulness as a unifying ENSO framework. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Species' ranges are shifting globally in response to climate warming, with substantial variability among taxa, even within regions. Relationships between range dynamics and intrinsic species traits may be particularly apparent in the ocean, where temperature more directly shapes species' distributions. Here, we test for a role of species traits and climate velocity in driving range extensions in the ocean-warming hotspot of southeast Australia. Climate velocity explained some variation in range shifts, however, including species traits more than doubled the variation explained. Swimming ability, omnivory and latitudinal range size all had positive relationships with range extension rate, supporting hypotheses that increased dispersal capacity and ecological generalism promote extensions. We find independent support for the hypothesis that species with narrow latitudinal ranges are limited by factors other than climate. Our findings suggest that small-ranging species are in double jeopardy, with limited ability to escape warming and greater intrinsic vulnerability to stochastic disturbances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Studies of decadal-to-multidecadal ocean subsurface temperature variability are fundamental to improving the understanding of low-frequency climate signals. The present study uses the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) version 2.2.4 product for the period 1950-2007 to identify decadal modes of variability that characterize the upper Indo-Pacific Ocean temperature structure (5-466-m depth). An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of the 10-yr low-pass filtered temperature field applied across four depths shows that the dominant mode is characterized by a long-term temperature trend, with warming at the surface and cooling at the thermocline depth connecting the tropical western Pacific with the southern Indian Ocean via the Indonesian Seas. EOF analysis of the detrended 10-yr filtered temperature data and correlation analyses of the EOF time series with established large-scale climate indices identified the interdecadal Pacific oscillation as EOF1, the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation as EOF2, and the decadal component of El Niño Modoki as EOF3 (respectively, modes 2, 3, and 4 of the nondetrended data). EOF2 identifies the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation when the analysis is applied to sea surface temperature anomalies only, suggesting that the surface is forced dominantly by fluxes associated with global-scale weather patterns, while the subsurface is dominantly forced by internal dynamics of the Pacific Ocean. This paper demonstrates that the decadal-to-interdecadal temperature variability in SODA has a pronounced vertical extension through the upper ocean. The upper thermocline accounts for most of the variance in the analysis. These results reinforce the importance of examining the subsurface ocean in climate dynamics studies that seek to understand the ocean's role. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]