1. A Novel Short-Time Passenger Flow Prediction Method for Urban Rail Transit: CEEMDAN-CSSA-LSTM Model Based on Station Classification.
- Author
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Jinbao Zhao, Jiawei Jiang, Wenjing Liu, Mingxing Li, Yuejuan Xu, Keke Hou, and Shengli Zhao
- Subjects
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HILBERT-Huang transform , *URBAN transit systems , *SEARCH algorithms , *PASSENGERS - Abstract
For urban rail transit (URT) operating companies, short-time passenger flow forecasting is a complex and critical task that determines the formulation and arrangement of operation plans and timetables. The automatic fare collection (AFC) system of URT provides detailed passenger flow data, which supports short-time passenger flow forecasting. This study proposes a combined model of Chaotic Sparrow Search Algorithm and Long Short-term memory artificial neural network (CSSA-LSTM) based on station classification. The model classifies stations based on various indicators such as point of interest (POI) data in the radiation area of Hangzhou, utilizes complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN) to denoise and smooth passenger flow data. It also conducts short-time passenger flow prediction and cross-validation for different stations by using the proposed model. To demonstrate the accuracy of the model, evaluation metrics such as R-squared and RMSE are introduced, and the results of the CSSA-LSTM model are compared with those of the LSTM, PSO-LSTM, and SSA-LSTM models. The experimental results show that the CSSA-LSTM model can effectively improve prediction accuracy, with R-squared increasing by 14.80%, 8.60%, and 6.82% compared to the other three algorithms, respectively. In addition, the cross-validation results of different stations prove the wide applicability of the CSSA-LSTM model, and this study have practical significance for URT planning and management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2023