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The response to Antarctic sea ice loss within a coupled modeling framework is examined in comparison to the response to Arctic sea ice loss and within the context of general greenhouse warming. Sea ice loss responses are found to be linear (particularly in response to Antarctic or global sea ice loss) with respect to the degree of imposed perturbation and additive when perturbations are applied in hemispheres separately and concurrently. Globally, and in the tropical Pacific in particular, Antarctic sea ice loss plays a relatively larger role than Arctic sea ice loss in both the atmosphere and the ocean, within the parameters of our experiments. The pattern of response to Antarctic sea ice loss is also found to more closely resemble that of greenhouse warming, again particularly in the tropics. An extension to multiparameter pattern scaling is developed to include a scaling factor for Antarctic change in addition to those for tropical warming and Arctic sea ice loss. The decomposition is applied to the modeled response to Antarctic sea ice loss to break it down into component partial responses that scale with Antarctic, tropical, and Arctic changes. This reveals the aspects of the response that are directly related to Antarctic change, such as an equatorward intensification of tropical precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere, and those that are modified via the induced changes in the tropics and Arctic, such as Northern Hemisphere temperature change. With this, we hope to gain a deeper understanding of the role of each of these changes for the development of physical mechanisms of the response. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The European Space Agency's Aeolus mission, launched in August 2018, provides the first global horizontal line‐of‐sight wind profile measurements. Previous studies have shown that Aeolus winds in global forecast systems improve the overall forecast skill, especially in the upper tropospheric tropics and in other data‐sparse regions. In this study, we use a series of observing system experiments with the latest version of the reprocessed Aeolus wind product (2B11) to better characterize the locations and drivers of improved skill from Aeolus with Environment and Climate Change Canada's Global Deterministic Prediction System. Observing system experiments that test the impact of Aeolus winds and the impact of all operational wind observations are carried out, covering the period summer 2019 and winter 2019–2020. Assimilation of operational winds improves the tropospheric wind forecast over the Tropics by a reduction of 8% in the forecast error, and adding the Aeolus winds to the assimilations results in an extra 0.7–0.9%. Aeolus wind impacts are improvements are 0.7–0.9% for the Arctic, and 0.4–0.6% over the Northern and Southern Hemisphere extratropics. The scale dependence of these impacts is investigated using spatial spectra (spherical harmonic decomposition). The improvement is quantified using the difference of the 250 hPa kinetic energy forecast error spectra between experiments. The operational winds largely improve the forecast of planetary scale to intermediate scale for spherical wave numbers between 1 and 20 in the short‐range forecasts. The operational wind impact decreases as the forecast lead time increases. On the other hand, the impact of Aeolus is mostly seen in the intermediate to large scale range with a peak around spherical wave number 8. The Aeolus‐related improvement around this wave number increases with forecast lead time. This analysis suggests that Aeolus winds provide estimates of the wind state that are valuable and complementary to that provided from current operational winds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme near-surface wind speeds in cities can have major societal impacts but are not well represented in climate models. Despite this, large-scale dynamics in the free troposphere, which models resolve better, could provide reliable constraints on local extreme winds. This study identifies synoptic circulations associated with midlatitude extreme wind events and assesses how resolution affects their representation in analysis products and a climate model framework. Composites of reanalysis (ERA5) sea level pressure and upper-tropospheric winds during observed extreme wind events reveal distinct circulation structures for each quadrant of the surface-wind rose. Enhanced resolution of the analysis product (ERA5 versus the higher-resolution ECMWF Operational Analysis) reduced wind speed biases but has little impact on capturing occurrences of wind extremes seen in station observations. Composite circulations for surface wind extremes in a climate model (CESM) skillfully reproduce circulations found in reanalysis. Regional refinement of CESM over a region centered on southern Ontario, Canada, using variable resolution (VR-CESM) improves representation of surface ageostrophic circulations and the strength of vertical coupling between upper-level and near-surface winds. We thus can distinguish situations for which regional refinement (dynamical downscaling) is necessary for realistic representation of the large-scale atmospheric circulations associated with extreme winds, from situations where the coarse resolution of standard GCMs is sufficient. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Snow on Arctic sea ice has many, contrasting effects on ice thickness and extent. Furthermore, estimates of snow depth on Arctic sea ice are a key input for ice thickness estimates from satellite altimeters such as ICESat‐2. Models such as the NASA Eulerian Snow on Sea Ice Model (NESOSIM) have been recently utilized by the sea ice community to provide time‐varying basin‐wide estimates of snow depth and density on Arctic sea ice. NESOSIM is a two‐snow‐layer model with simple representations of snow accumulation, wind packing, loss due to blowing snow, and redistribution due to sea ice motion. Two free parameters in NESOSIM, which dictate the bulk effect of wind packing (densification) and blowing snow processes, lack direct observational constraints. We present an indirect calibration of these parameters using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach. NESOSIM output is calibrated to observations of snow depth from Operation IceBridge and CRREL‐Dartmouth buoys, and density from historical drifting stations. OIB measurements alone are found to more strictly constrain the blowing snow parameter, and including additional observations yields more physically reasonable density estimates. The MCMC‐calibrated model output is further used to estimate sea ice thickness and uncertainty from model parameter uncertainty using ICESat‐2 freeboard measurements. Despite visible differences in density, the change in ice thickness is minimal. We also find that the model is relatively insensitive to parameter variations, and hence, the snow model uncertainty contribution to ice thickness is small compared to the systematic uncertainty from snow in the current ICESat‐2 thickness product. Key Points: Free parameters in a snow‐on‐sea‐ice model are automatically calibrated to observations using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methodThe MCMC‐optimized model configuration yields small snow depth changes, but larger snow density changes compared to the prior configurationThe impact of snow model parameter calibration on sea ice thickness and uncertainty is minimal [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In August 2018, the European Space Agency (ESA) launched the Aeolus satellite, whose Atmospheric LAser Doppler INstrument (ALADIN) is the first space-borne Doppler wind lidar to regularly measure vertical profiles of horizontal line-of-sight (HLOS) winds with global sampling. This mission is intended to assess improvement to numerical weather prediction provided by wind observations in regions poorly constrained by atmospheric mass, such as the tropics, but also, potentially, in polar regions such as the Arctic where direct wind observations are especially sparse. There remain gaps in the evaluation of the Aeolus products over the Arctic region, which is the focus of this contribution. Here, an assessment of the Aeolus Level-2B (L2B) wind product is carried out, progressing from specific locations in the Canadian North to the pan-Arctic. In particular, Aeolus data are compared to a limited sample of coincident ground-based Ka-band radar measurements at Iqaluit, Nunavut, to a larger set of coincident radiosonde measurements over the Canadian North, to Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC)'s short-range forecast, and to the reanalysis product, ERA5, from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Periods covered include the early phase of the first laser flight model (flight model A – FM-A; September to October 2018), the early phase of the second laser flight model (flight model B – FM-B; August to September 2019), and the middle phase of FM-B (December 2019 to January 2020). The adjusted r -squared between Aeolus and other local datasets is around 0.9 except for lower values for the comparison to the Ka-band radar, reflecting limited sampling opportunities with the radar data. This consistency is degraded by about 10 % for the Rayleigh winds in the summer due to solar background noise and other possible errors. Over the pan-Arctic, consistency, with correlation greater than 0.8, is found in the Mie channel from the planetary boundary layer to the lower stratosphere (near surface to 16 km a.g.l.) and in the Rayleigh channel from the troposphere to the stratosphere (2 to 25 km a.g.l.). In all three periods, Aeolus standard deviations are found to be 5 % to 40 % greater than those from ECCC-B and ERA5. We found that the L2B estimated error product for Aeolus is coherent with the differences between Aeolus and the other datasets and can be used as a guide for expected consistency. Our work shows that the high quality of the Aeolus dataset that has been demonstrated globally applies to the sparsely sampled Arctic region. It also demonstrates the lack of available independent wind measurements in the Canadian North, lending urgency to the need to augment the observing capacity in this region to ensure suitable calibration and validation of future space-borne Doppler wind lidar (DWL) missions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To assess the effect of ocean‐atmosphere coupling in the climate response to forced sea ice loss, the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project protocol includes centennial coupled atmosphere‐ocean general circulation model simulations with imposed sea ice loss. The protocol, which specifies sea ice concentration and thickness distribution targets, does not prescribe a method for achieving them. Although different methods for imposing sea ice loss (or growth) in models have been documented, testing of the method‐dependence of the resulting climate responses has been limited. Achieving the targeted sea ice state has proven to be challenging using the so‐called ghost‐flux nudging method, which induces ice melt from below, as this method does not constrain the partitioning between thickness and concentration. We propose, describe and test a simple method that combines the advantages of direct sea ice nudging and ghost‐flux nudging. The hybrid nudging method better captures the partitioning between thickness and concentration while conserving total water content. We document how this novel sea ice constraining method reaches specific targets, enhances surface turbulent heat flux responses to sea ice loss, and induces tropospheric warming for both polar regions. Plain Language Summary: The Arctic is warming faster than the global average due to several processes that, once combined, lead to so‐called Arctic Amplification. Part of this anomalous polar warming comes from an intense reduction in ice cover allowing heat into the ocean, warming the Arctic ocean near the surface, hence melting more ice. A joint effort by several climate modeling groups called the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP) aims at better understanding Arctic Amplification through a coordinated set of climate simulations. Among this ensemble of simulations is a set of centennial simulations performed with fully coupled state‐of‐the‐art climate models. In these experiments, Arctic (and Antarctic) sea ice are forced to reach specific states in order to better isolate Arctic Amplification and sea ice loss from the rest of anthropogenic global warming. In this paper, we propose a simple technique to nudge sea ice models to specific states such as prescribed by PAMIP. This new method combines advantages from existing techniques to improve the control over the extent and the thickness of the ice. We document how our novel method produces atmospheric warming and circulation responses that are more consistent with previously published results than the existing techniques. Key Points: Already established sea ice nudging method leads to issues in the partitioning between sea ice concentration (SIC) and sea ice thickness (SIT)New hybrid nudging method significantly improves capture of both SIC and SIT targets for Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project, in particular for Arctic sea iceHybrid scheme increases Arctic turbulent heat flux and warming [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sahel summertime precipitation declined from the 1950s to 1970s and recovered from the 1970s to 2000s. Anthropogenic aerosol contributions to this evolution are typically attributed to interhemispheric gradient changes of Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperature (SST). However recent work by Hirasawa et al. indicates a more complex picture, with the response being a combination of "fast" direct atmospheric (DA) processes and "slow" ocean-mediated (OM) processes. Here, we extend this understanding using the Community Atmosphere Model 5 to determine the role of regional ocean-basin perturbations and regional aerosol emission changes in the overall aerosol-driven OM and DA responses, respectively. From the 1950s to 1970s, there was an OM Sahel wetting response due to Pacific Ocean cooling that was offset by drying due to Atlantic cooling. By contrast, from the 1970s to 2000s, Atlantic trends reversed and amplified the Pacific cooling-induced wetting. This wetting was partially offset by drying driven by Indian Ocean cooling. Thus, the OM Sahel precipitation response to aerosol crucially depends on the balance of responses to Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian Ocean SST anomalies. From the 1950s to 1970s, there is DA Sahel drying that was principally due to North American aerosol emissions, with negligible effect from European emissions. DA drying from the 1970s to 2000s was mainly due to African aerosol emissions. Thus, the shifting roles of regional OM and DA effects reveal a complex interplay of direct driving and remote teleconnections in determining the time evolution of Sahel precipitation due to aerosol forcing in the late twentieth century. Significance Statement: Studies of global climate models consistently indicate that anthropogenic aerosol emissions were a significant contributor to a severe drought that occurred in the Sahel region of Africa in the late twentieth century. The drying influence of aerosol forcing is the combined result of rapid atmospheric responses directly due to the forcing and slower responses due to forced ocean temperature changes. Using a set of simulations targeted at determining the influences from different ocean basins and different emission regions for two periods in the late twentieth century, we find there is a surprising range of mechanisms through which aerosol emissions affect the Sahel. This results in a complex interplay of at times competing and at times complementary regional influences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Analyzing a multimodel ensemble of coupled climate model simulations forced with Arctic sea ice loss using a two-parameter pattern-scaling technique to remove the cross-coupling between low- and high-latitude responses, the sensitivity to high-latitude sea ice loss is isolated and contrasted to the sensitivity to low-latitude warming. Despite some differences in experimental design, the Northern Hemisphere near-surface atmospheric sensitivity to sea ice loss is found to be robust across models in the cold season; however, a larger intermodel spread is found at the surface in boreal summer, and in the free tropospheric circulation. In contrast, the sensitivity to low-latitude warming is most robust in the free troposphere and in the warm season, with more intermodel spread in the surface ocean and surface heat flux over the Northern Hemisphere. The robust signals associated with sea ice loss include upward turbulent and longwave heat fluxes where sea ice is lost, warming and freshening of the Arctic Ocean, warming of the eastern North Pacific Ocean relative to the western North Pacific with upward turbulent heat fluxes in the Kuroshio Extension, and salinification of the shallow shelf seas of the Arctic Ocean alongside freshening in the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean. In contrast, the robust signals associated with low-latitude warming include intensified ocean warming and upward latent heat fluxes near the western boundary currents, freshening of the Pacific Ocean, salinification of the North Atlantic, and downward sensible and longwave fluxes over the ocean. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In August 2018, the European Space Agency launched the Aeolus satellite, whose Atmospheric LAser Doppler INstrument (ALADIN) is the first spaceborne Doppler wind lidar to regularly measure vertical profiles of horizontal line-of-sight (HLOS) winds with global sampling. This mission is intended to assess improvement to numerical weather prediction provided by wind observations in regions poorly constrained by atmospheric mass, such as the tropics, but also, potentially, in polar regions such as the Arctic where direct wind observations are especially sparse. There remain gaps in the evaluation of the Aeolus products over the Arctic region, which is the focus of this contribution. Here, an assessment of the Aeolus Level-2B wind product is carried out from measurement stations in Canada's north, to the pan-Arctic, with Aeolus data being compared to Ka-band radar measurements at Iqaluit, Nunavut; to radiosonde measurements over Northern Canada; to Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC)'s short-range forecast; and to the reanalysis product, ERA5, from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Periods covered include the early phase during the first laser nominal flight model (FM-A; 2018-09 to 2018-10), the early phase during the second flight laser (FM-B; 2019-08 to 2019-09), and the mid-FM-B periods (2019-12 to 2020-01). The adjusted r-square between Aeolus and other local datasets are around 0.9, except for somewhat lower values in comparison with the ground-based radar, presumably due to limited sampling. This consistency degraded by about 10 % for the Rayleigh winds in the summer, presumably due to scattering from the solar background. Over the pan-Arctic, consistency, with correlation greater than 0.8, is found in the Mie channel from the planetary boundary layer to the lower stratosphere (near surface to 16 km a.g.l.) and in the Rayleigh channel from the troposphere to the stratosphere (2 km to 25 km a.g.l.). Zonal and meridional projections of the HLOS winds are separated to account for the systematic changes in HLOS winds arising from sampling wind components from different viewing orientations in the ascending and descending phases. In all cases, Aeolus standard deviations are found to be 20 % greater than those from ECCC-B and ERA5. We found that L2B estimated error product for Aeolus is coherent with the differences between Aeolus and the other datasets, and can be used as a guide for expected consistency. Thus, our work confirms the quality of the Aeolus dataset over the Arctic and shows that the new Aeolus L2B wind product provides a valuable addition to current wind products in regions such as the Arctic Ocean region where few direct wind observations have been available to date. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the circulating atmosphere, diabatic heating influences the potential temperature content of air masses far from where the heating occurs. Budgets that balance local diabatic sources with local heat divergence and storage do not retain information about this remote influence, which requires airmass tracking. In this study, a process-based, passive-tracer diagnostic, called heat tagging, is introduced. Heat tagging locally decomposes the potential temperature into contributions from the distinctive diabatic processes that generate them, wherever they occur. The distribution, variability, and transport of atmospheric heat tags are studied in the relatively simple setting of an idealized aquaplanet model. Heat tags from latent heating are generated in the deep tropics and the midlatitude storm track and then transported throughout the troposphere. By contrast, dry sensible heat tags are enhanced near the surface, and radiative tags are mainly confined to the stratosphere. As a result, local heat transport, variability of potential temperature, and global poleward heat transport are dominated by heat tags related to latent heating, with heat tags from sensible and radiative heating only making contributions in the polar near-surface and the stratosphere, respectively. Heat tagging thus quantifies how water vapor and latent heating link the structural characteristics of the atmosphere and illustrates the importance of the hydrological cycle in poleward energy transport. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sahel precipitation has undergone substantial multidecadal time scale changes during the twentieth century that have had severe impacts on the region's population. Using initial-condition large ensembles (LE) of coupled general circulation model (GCM) simulations from two institutions, forced multidecadal variability is found in which Sahel precipitation declines from the 1950s to 1970s and then recovers from the 1970s to 2000s. This forced variability has similar timing to, but considerably smaller magnitude than, observed Sahel precipitation variability. Isolating the response using single forcing simulations within the LEs reveals that anthropogenic aerosols (AA) are the primary driver of this forced variability. The roles of the direct-atmospheric and the ocean-mediated atmospheric responses toAAforcing are determined with the atmosphere-land GCM (AGCM) components of the LE coupled GCMs. The direct-atmospheric response arises from changes to aerosol and precursor emissions with unchanged oceanic boundary conditions while the ocean-mediated response arises from changes to AA-forced sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations diagnosed from the AAforced LE. In the AGCMs studied here, the direct-atmospheric response dominates the AA-forced 1970s 2 1950s Sahel drying. On the other hand, the 2000s 2 1970s wetting is mainly driven by the ocean-mediated effect, with some direct atmospheric contribution. Although the responses show differences, there is qualitative agreement between the AGCMs regarding the roles of the direct-atmospheric and ocean-mediated responses. Since these effects often compete and show nonlinearity, the model dependence of these effects and their role in the net aerosol-forced response of Sahel precipitation need to be carefully accounted for in future model analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The role of extratropical ocean warming in the coupled climate response to Arctic sea ice loss is investigated using coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) and uncoupled atmospheric-only (AGCM) experiments. Coupled AOGCM experiments driven by sea ice albedo reduction and greenhouse gas–dominated radiative forcing are used to diagnose the extratropical sea surface temperature (SST) response to sea ice loss. Sea ice loss is then imposed in AGCM experiments both with and without these extratropical SST changes, which are found to extend beyond the regions where sea ice is lost. Sea ice loss in isolation drives warming that is confined to the Arctic lower troposphere and only a weak atmospheric circulation response. When the extratropical SST response caused by sea ice loss is also included in the forcing, the warming extends into the Arctic midtroposphere during winter. This coincides with a stronger atmospheric circulation response, including an equatorward shift in the eddy-driven jet, a deepening of the Aleutian low, and an expansion of the Siberian high. Similar results are found whether the extratropical SST forcing is taken directly from the AOGCM driven by sea ice loss, or whether they are diagnosed using a two-parameter pattern scaling technique where tropical adjustment to sea ice loss is removed. These results suggest that AGCM experiments that are driven by sea ice loss and only local SST increases will underestimate the Arctic midtroposphere warming and atmospheric circulation response to sea ice loss, compared to AOGCM simulations and the real world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Anthropogenic‐aerosol (AA) radiative forcing modulates multidecadal greenhouse radiative forcing. However, decadal climate responses to AA are poorly characterized given AA forcing uncertainty and internal climate variability. This motivates revisiting a recent claim that AA drove a negative trend in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and an associated cooling influence in the 10–15 years following the late‐1990's El Niño. The average of a 50‐member initial condition ensemble of the second generation Canadian Earth System Model version 2 that was forced only with AA does not exhibit the negative‐Pacific Decadal Oscillation/slowdown response. However, spurious responses of this kind, that are artifacts of subsetting the large ensemble (LE) in a manner consistent with published literature, can readily be found. This illustrates the caution needed in interpreting regional‐ and decadal‐scale responses to AA and suggests that improved characterization of model uncertainty in AA over the recent period is required. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Two coupled climate models, CESM1 and CanESM2, are used to isolate the climate response to Arctic sea ice loss (high‐latitude warming). The sea ice loss and radiative forcing protocols differ between the sets of experiments. This response is compared to the remaining climate change signal, which is dominated by low‐latitude warming. Some aspects of the wintertime circulation response to sea ice loss are remarkably robust: warming over much of the high latitude and midlatitude; weak cooling over eastern Eurasia, strengthening of the Aleutian Low and Siberian High, equatorward intensification of the lower tropospheric winds, and increased precipitation over high latitudes. Pattern scaling separates the parts of the response that scale with low‐latitude warming and with sea ice loss. The thermal response patterns, for both sea ice loss and low‐latitude warming, are similar between the models. However, the circulation response patterns that scale with low‐latitude warming differ between the models. Preliminary evidence shows that these conclusions apply to other models driven by distinctive sea ice loss protocols. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Evidence from models and observations suggests that the vertical distribution of entropy in the extratropical troposphere reflects the horizontal distribution of entropy at the surface. This isentropic linkage, which is accomplished through moist isentropic mass transport driven by extratropical waves, becomes more apparent when the effect of latent heat release by condensing moist parcels is accounted for. This study focuses on the stratification of the Arctic troposphere, which is connected by moist isentropes to the midlatitude surface. A relatively simple moist general circulation model without radiative feedbacks involving water vapor or clouds is used to study the linkage between the midlatitude surface and the Arctic midtroposphere. Zonally symmetric midlatitude thermal perturbations switched on at the surface drive a moist potential temperature response in the Arctic midtroposphere with a lag of about 2 weeks. This response increases the gross moist vertical stability in the Arctic while generally decreasing it, or increasing it only weakly, in the midlatitudes. The moist isentropic streamfunction is shifted poleward owing to the poleward entropy flux response and is shifted upward (i.e., to higher entropy) owing to the zonal-mean entropy response. The results suggest a potential novel mechanism by which the midlatitudes might influence polar lapse rates and their associated radiative feedbacks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Canadian Sea Ice and Snow Evolution (Can- SISE) Network is a climate research network focused on developing and applying state-of-the-art observational data to advance dynamical prediction, projections, and understanding of seasonal snow cover and sea ice in Canada and the circumpolar Arctic. This study presents an assessment from the CanSISE Network of the ability of the second-generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) and the Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System (CanSIPS) to simulate and predict snow and sea ice from seasonal to multi-decadal timescales, with a focus on the Canadian sector. To account for observational uncertainty, model structural uncertainty, and internal climate variability, the analysis uses multi-source observations, multiple Earth system models (ESMs) in Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), and large initial-condition ensembles of CanESM2 and other models. It is found that the ability of the CanESM2 simulation to capture snow-related climate parameters, such as cold-region surface temperature and precipitation, lies within the range of currently available international models. Accounting for the considerable disagreement among satellite-era observational datasets on the distribution of snow water equivalent, CanESM2 has too much springtime snow mass over Canada, reflecting a broader northern hemispheric positive bias. Biases in seasonal snow cover extent are generally less pronounced. CanESM2 also exhibits retreat of springtime snow generally greater than observational estimates, after accounting for observational uncertainty and internal variability. Sea ice is biased low in the Canadian Arctic, which makes it difficult to assess the realism of long-term sea ice trends there. The strengths and weaknesses of the modelling system need to be understood as a practical tradeoff: the Canadian models are relatively inexpensive computationally because of their moderate resolution, thus enabling their use in operational seasonal prediction and for generating large ensembles of multidecadal simulations. Improvements in climate-prediction systems like CanSIPS rely not just on simulation quality but also on using novel observational constraints and the ready transfer of research to an operational setting. Improvements in seasonal forecasting practice arising from recent research include accurate initialization of snow and frozen soil, accounting for observational uncertainty in forecast verification, and sea ice thickness initialization using statistical predictors available in real time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The distribution of temperatures in the wintertime polar stratosphere is significantly positively skewed, which has important implications for the characteristics of ozone chemistry and stratosphere-troposphere coupling. The typical argument for why the temperature distribution is skewed is that radiative balance sets a firm lower limit, while planetary wave driving can force much larger positive anomalies in temperature. However, the distribution of the upward Eliassen-Palm (EP) flux is also positively skewed, and this suggests that dynamics may play an important role in setting the skewness of the temperature distribution. This study explains the skewness of the upward EP flux distribution by appealing to the ideas of linear interference. In this framework, fluxes are decomposed into a linear term (LIN) that measures the coherence of the wave anomaly and the climatological wave and an additional nonlinear term (NONLIN) that depends only on the wave anomaly. It is shown that when filtered by wavenumber, there is a clear nonlinear dependence between LIN and NONLIN: the terms cancel when LIN is negative, but they reinforce each other when LIN is positive. This leads to the positive skewness of the upward wave activity flux. A toy model of wave interference is constructed, and it is shown that the westward vertical tilt of the climatological wave is the key ingredient to a positively skewed upward EP flux distribution. The causes of the skews of the LIN and NONLIN distributions themselves are shown to be related to relationships between wave phase and amplitude, and wave phase and vertical tilt, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, coupled ocean–atmosphere–land–sea ice Earth system model (ESM) simulations driven separately by sea ice albedo reduction and by projected greenhouse-dominated radiative forcing are combined to cleanly isolate the sea ice loss response of the atmospheric circulation. A pattern scaling approach is proposed in which the local multidecadal mean atmospheric response is assumed to be separately proportional to the total sea ice loss and to the total low-latitude ocean surface warming. The proposed approach estimates the response to Arctic sea ice loss with low-latitude ocean temperatures fixed and vice versa. The sea ice response includes a high northern latitude easterly zonal wind response, an equatorward shift of the eddy-driven jet, a weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex, an anticyclonic sea level pressure anomaly over coastal Eurasia, a cyclonic sea level pressure anomaly over the North Pacific, and increased wintertime precipitation over the west coast of North America. Many of these responses are opposed by the response to low-latitude surface warming with sea ice fixed. However, both sea ice loss and low-latitude surface warming act in concert to reduce subseasonal temperature variability throughout the middle and high latitudes. The responses are similar in two related versions of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Earth system models, apart from the stratospheric polar vortex response. Evidence is presented that internal variability can easily contaminate the estimates if not enough independent climate states are used to construct them. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Better constraining the continental climate response to anthropogenic forcing is essential to improve climate projections. In this study, pattern scaling is used to extract, from observations, the patterned response of sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice concentration (SICE) to anthropogenically dominated long-term global warming. The SST response pattern includes a warming of the tropical Indian Ocean, the high northern latitudes, and the western boundary currents. The SICE pattern shows seasonal variations of the main locations of sea ice loss. These SST–SICE response patterns are used to drive an ensemble of an atmospheric general circulation model, the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model, version 5 (CAM5), over the period 1980-2010 along with a standard AMIP ensemble using observed SST–SICE. The simulations enable attribution of a variety of observed trends of continental climate to global warming. On the one hand, the warming trends observed in all seasons across the entire Northern Hemisphere extratropics result from global warming, as does the snow loss observed over the northern midlatitudes and northwestern Eurasia. On the other hand, 1980-2010 precipitation trends observed in winter over North America and in summer over Africa result from the recent decreasing phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation and the recent increasing phase of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation, respectively, which are not part of the global warming signal. The method holds promise for near-term decadal climate prediction but as currently framed cannot distinguish regional signals associated with oceanic internal variability from aerosol forcing and other sources of short-term forcing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impact that disappearing Arctic sea ice will have on the atmospheric circulation and weather variability remains uncertain. In this study, results are presented from a sea ice perturbation experiment using the coupled Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4). By decreasing the albedo of the sea ice, the impact of an ice-free summertime Arctic on the coupled ocean-atmosphere system is isolated in an idealized but energetically self-consistent way. The multicentury equilibrium response is examined, as well as the transient response in an initial condition ensemble. The perturbation drives pronounced year-round sea ice thinning, Arctic warming, Arctic amplification, and moderate global warming. Even in the almost complete absence of summertime sea ice, the atmospheric general circulation response is very weak and the transient response is small compared to the internal variability. Surface temperature variability is reduced on all time scales over most of the middle and high latitudes with a 50% reduction in the standard deviation of temperature over the Arctic Ocean. The reduction is attributed to decreased temperature gradients and increased maritime influence once the sea ice melts. This reduced variability extends weakly into the variability of the midlatitude and free tropospheric geopotential height (less than 10% reduction in the standard deviation). Consistently, eddy geopotential height variability is found to decrease while geopotential isopleth meandering, which reflects Arctic amplified warming, increases moderately. The sign of these changes is consistent with recent observations, but the size of these changes is relatively small. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex strength variability is known to be largely driven by persistent anomalies in upward wave activity flux. It has also been shown that attenuation and amplification of the stationary wave is the primary way in which wave activity flux varies. This study determines the structure of the wave anomalies that interfere with the climatological wave and drive this variability. Using a recently developed spectral decomposition it is shown that fixed-node standing waves are the primary drivers of the 'linear interference' phenomenon. This is particularly true for the low-frequency component of the upward wave activity flux. The linear part of the flux is shown to be more persistent than the total flux and has significant tropospheric standing wave precursors that lead changes in the strength of the stratospheric polar vortex. Evidence is presented that current-generation high-top climate models are able to credibly simulate this variability in wave activity fluxes and the connection to polar vortex strength. Finally, the precursors to displacement and split sudden stratospheric warmings are examined. Displacement events are found to be preceded by about 25 days of anomalously high upward wave activity flux forced by standing waves amplifying the climatology. Split events have more short-lived wave activity flux precursors, which are dominated by the nonlinear part of the flux. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Numerous studies have suggested that variations in the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) may drive predictable variations in North Atlantic sea surface temperature (NASST). However, two recent studies have presented results suggesting that coupled models disagree on both the sign and the phasing of the correlation between AMOC and NASST indices. These studies analyzed linearly detrended output from twentieth-century historical simulations in phases 3 and 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5). The present study argues that the apparent disagreement among models arises from a comingling of two processes: 1) a bottom-up effect in which unforced AMOC changes lead to NASST changes of the same sign and 2) a top-down effect in which forced NASST changes lead to AMOC changes of the opposite sign. Linear detrending is not appropriate for separating these two effects because the time scales of forced and unforced variations are not well separated. After forced variations are properly removed, the models come into much closer agreement with each other. This argument is supported by analysis of CMIP5 historical simulations, as well as preindustrial control simulations and a 29-member ensemble of the Community Earth System Model, version 1, covering the period 1920-2005. Additional analysis is presented suggesting that, even after the data are linearly detrended, a significant portion of observed NASST persistence may be externally forced. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study seeks to derive the sea surface temperature (SST) response to anthropogenic forcing from observations over the last century, using simple methods inspired from pattern scaling. As in pattern scaling, the spatial response is assumed to scale with global-mean and annual-mean surface temperature. The long-term aim of this work is to generate anthropogenically forced SST and sea ice patterns for the recent past and near-term future, and use them to force atmosphere-land climate models for attribution and prediction purposes. The present work compares estimation methodologies and, within a Monte Carlo framework based on large initial condition ensembles of climate model simulations, examines the robustness of the patterns obtained. The different methods explored here yield a similar SST spatial response, mostly reflecting the observed SST linear trend map. The different methods nevertheless provide distinctive temporal evolution of the global-mean and annual-mean SST response, which in turn affects the temporal evolution of the global-mean and annual-mean air surface temperature simulated in corresponding prescribed SST simulations. The estimated SST spatial response consists mostly of a warming of the midlatitude coasts near the western boundary currents, the tropical Indian Ocean, and the Arctic Ocean. This pattern generally agrees with previously published observational and modeling studies. Based on Monte Carlo analysis of the large ensembles, it is found that between 36% and 56% of its spatial variance results from anthropogenic forcing. Overall, the work herein provides constraints on the uncertainty associated with the spatial variability of an anthropogenically forced component of climate change derived from observations, which can potentially be used for climate attribution and prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study updates a body of literature that aims to separate atmospheric disturbances into standing and traveling zonal wave components. Classical wavenumber-frequency analysis decomposes longitude- and time-dependent signals into contributions from distinct spatial and temporal scales. Here, an additional decomposition of the spectrum into standing and traveling components is described. Previous methods decompose the power spectrum into standing and traveling parts with no explicit allowance for covariance between the two. This study provides a simple method to calculate the variance of each of these components and the covariance between them. It is shown that this covariance is typically a significant portion of the variance of the total signal. The approach also preserves phase information and allows for the reconstruction of the real-space standing and traveling components. The technique is applied to reanalysis wintertime geopotential height anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere in order to investigate planetary wave interference effects in stratosphere-troposphere coupling. The results show that for planetary waves 1-3, standing waves explain the largest portion of the variance at low frequencies. An exception is for wave 1 in the high-latitude troposphere, where there is a strong westward-traveling wave. Furthermore, the antinodes of the standing waves have preferred longitudes that tend to align with the extremes of the climatological wave, suggesting that standing waves contribute to a linear interference effect that has been shown to be an important part of stratosphere-troposphere interactions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The dynamics of late summer Arctic tropospheric heat content variability is studied using reanalyses. In both trends and interannual variability, much of the August heat content variability in the Arctic midtroposphere can be explained by the total-sensible plus latent-heat content variability at the midlatitude near surface in July. Climate models suggest that this connection is part of the global warming signal in September-November, but in reanalyses the connection is most strongly present in July-August variability and trends. It is argued that heat content signals are propagated from the midlatitude near surface to the Arctic midtroposphere approximately along climatological moist isentropes. High-frequency data reveal that the propagating signal is primarily driven by a few strong meridional heat flux events each summer season. Composite analysis on these events shows that August meridional heat fluxes into the Arctic midtroposphere are succeeded by positive heat content anomalies in the lower troposphere a few days later. This second connection between the Arctic midtroposphere and the Arctic lower troposphere could be sufficient to explain some of the recent Arctic 850-hPa temperature variability north of 75°N. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Southern Hemisphere (SH) stratospheric stationary wave amplitude increased significantly in late spring and early summer during the last two decades of the twentieth century. A suite of chemistry climate model simulations are examined to explore the underlying cause and the separate effects of anthropogenic forcing from ozone depleting substances (ODSs) and greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the past and projected SH stationary wave evolution. The model simulations produce trends in the wave amplitude similar to that observed, although somewhat weaker. In simulations with changing ODSs, this increase in amplitude is reproduced during the ozone depletion period and is reversed during the ozone recovery period. This response is related to changes in the strength and timing of the breakdown of the SH polar vortex associated with ozone depletion and recovery. GHG increases have little impact on the simulated stratospheric stationary wave amplitude but are projected to induce an eastward phase shift of the waves. This phase shift is linked to the strengthening of the subtropical jets driven by GHG forcing via sea surface warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the outstanding questions regarding the observed relationship between October Eurasian snow cover anomalies and the boreal winter northern annular mode (NAM) is what causes the multiple-week lag between positive Eurasian snow cover anomalies in October and the associated peak in Rossby wave activity flux from the troposphere to the stratosphere in December. This study explores the following hypothesis about this lag: in order to achieve amplification of the wave activity, the vertically propagating Rossby wave train associated with the snow cover anomaly must reinforce the climatological stationary wave, which corresponds to constructive linear interference between the anomalous wave and the climatological wave. It is shown that the lag in peak wave activity flux arises because the Rossby wave train associated with the snow cover is in quadrature or out of phase with the climatological stationary wave from October to mid-November. Beginning in mid-November the associated wave anomaly migrates into a position that is in phase with the climatological wave, leading to constructive interference and anomalously positive upward wave activity fluxes until mid-January. Climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 3 (CMIP3) do not capture this behavior. This linear interference effect is not only associated with stratospheric variability related to Eurasian snow cover anomalies but is a general feature of Northern Hemisphere troposphere-stratosphere interactions and, in particular, dominated the negative NAM events of the fall-winter of 2009/10. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Computation is an indispensable tool for physicists, but incorporating computational physics into the undergraduate physics curriculum presents many challenges. How can instructors fit computational physics into already packed curricula, and how can some level of computational proficiency become second nature to today's physics students? We review how web-based learning resources have been used to integrate computational activities into redesigned lab and lecture courses at the University of Toronto. The methodology of incorporating computation into lecture and laboratory courses at the first and second years is presented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent observational and modeling studies have demonstrated a link between eastern tropical Pacific Ocean (TPO) warming associated with the El Niño--Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the negative phase of the wintertime northern annular mode (NAM). The TPO--NAM link involves a Rossby wave teleconnection from the tropics to the extratropics, and an increase in polar stratospheric wave driving that in turn induces a negative NAM anomaly in the stratosphere and troposphere. Previous work further suggests that tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) warming is associated with a positive NAM anomaly, which is of opposite sign to the TPO case. The TIO case is, however, difficult to interpret because the TPO and TIO warmings are not independent. To better understand the dynamics of tropical influences on the NAM, the current study investigates the NAM response to imposed TPO and TIO warmings in a general circulation model. The NAM responses to the two warmings have opposite sign and can be of surprisingly similar amplitude even though the TIO forcing is relatively weak. It is shown that the sign and strength of the NAM response is often simply related to the phasing, and hence the linear interference, between the Rossby wave response and the climatological stationary wave. The TPO (TIO) wave response reinforces (attenuates) the climatological wave and therefore weakens (strengthens) the stratospheric jet and leads to a negative (positive) NAM response. In additional simulations, it is shown that decreasing the strength of the climatological stationary wave reduces the importance of linear interference and increases the importance of nonlinearity. This work demonstrates that the simulated extratropical annular mode response to climate forcings can depend sensitively on the amplitude and phase of the climatological stationary wave and the wave response. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Stationary wave nonlinearity describes the self-interaction of stationary waves and is important in maintaining the zonally asymmetric atmospheric general circulation. However, the dynamics of stationary wave nonlinearity, which is often calculated explicitly in stationary wave models, is not well understood. Stationary wave nonlinearity is examined here in the simplified setting of the response to localized topographic forcing in quasigeostrophic barotropic dynamics in the presence and absence of transient eddies. It is shown that stationary wave nonlinearity accounts for most of the difference between the linear and full nonlinear response, particularly if the adjustment of the zonal-mean flow to the stationary waves is taken into account. The separate impact of transient eddy forcing is also quantified. Wave activity analysis shows that stationary wave nonlinearity in this setting is associated with Rossby wave critical layer reflection. A nonlinear stationary wave model, similar to those used in baroclinic stationary wave model studies, is also tested and is shown to capture the basic features of the full nonlinear stationary wave solution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The question of which statistical model best describes internal climate variability on interannual and longer time scales is essential to the ability to predict such variables and detect periodicities and trends in them. For over 30 yr the dominant model for background climate variability has been the autoregressive model of the first order (AR1). However, recent research has shown that some aspects of climate variability are best described by a “long memory” or “power-law” model. Such a model fits a temporal spectrum to a single power-law function, which thereby accumulates more power at lower frequencies than an AR1 fit. In this study, several power-law model estimators are applied to global temperature data from reanalysis products. The methods employed (the detrended fluctuation analysis, Geweke–Porter-Hudak estimator, Gaussian semiparametric estimator, and multitapered versions of the last two) agree well for pure power-law stochastic processes. However, for the observed temperature record, the power-law fits are sensitive to the choice of frequency range and the intrinsic filtering properties of the methods. The observational results converge once frequency ranges are made consistent and the lowest frequencies are included, and once several climate signals have been filtered. Two robust results emerge from the analysis: first, that the tropical circulation features relatively large power-law exponents that connect to the zonal-mean extratropical circulation; and second, that the subtropical lower stratosphere exhibits power-law behavior that is volcanically forced. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A sector EOF analysis applied to the extratropical tropospheric circulation extracts robust circulation patterns that represent the regional signature of the annular modes. These regional patterns are eastward-propagating, long baroclinic wave structures with the dipolar meridional structure in the streamflow of the annular modes. The regional dipole patterns are also connected to the annular modes through their temporal correlation and their eddy flux signatures. These results serve to relate the hemispheric and the regional perspectives on the annular modes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The seasonal time dependence of the tropospheric circulation response to polar stratospheric cooling in a simple atmospheric general circulation model is investigated. When the model is run without a seasonal cycle, polar stratospheric cooling induces a positive annular-mode response in the troposphere that takes a remarkably long time—several hundred days—to fully equilibrate. One is thus led to ask whether the tropospheric response would survive in the presence of a seasonal cycle. When a seasonal cycle is introduced into the model stratosphere, the tropospheric response appears with a distinct time lag with respect to the stratospheric cooling, but, in the long-term mean, the pattern of the wind response is very similar to the one that results from stratospheric forcing in the absence of a seasonal cycle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A simple atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) is used to investigate the transient response of the stratosphere–troposphere system to externally imposed pulses of lower-tropospheric planetary wave activity. The atmospheric GCM is a dry, hydrostatic, global primitive-equations model, whose circulation includes an active polar vortex and a tropospheric jet maintained by baroclinic eddies. Planetary wave activity pulses are generated by a perturbation of the solid lower boundary that grow and decay over a period of 10 days. The planetary wave pulses propagate upward and break in the stratosphere. Subsequently, a zonal-mean circulation anomaly propagates downward, often into the troposphere, at lags of 30–100 days. The evolution of the response is found to be dependent on the state of the stratosphere–troposphere system at the time the pulse is generated. In particular, on the basis of a large ensemble of these simulations, it is found that the length of time the signal takes to propagate downward from the stratosphere is controlled by initial anomalies in the zonal-mean circulation and in the zonal-mean wave drag. Criteria based on these anomaly patterns can be used, therefore, to predict the long-term surface response of the stratosphere–troposphere system to a planetary wave pulse up to 90 days after the pulse is generated. In an independent test, it is verified that the initial states that most strongly satisfy these criteria respond in the expected way to the lower-tropospheric wave activity pulse. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An exceptionally strong stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) that spontaneously occurs in a very simple stratosphere–troposphere AGCM is discussed. The model is a dry, hydrostatic, primitive equation model without planetary stationary waves. Transient baroclinic wave–wave interaction in the troposphere thus provides the only source of upward-propagating wave activity into the stratosphere. The model’s SSW is grossly similar to the Southern Hemisphere major SSW of 2002: it occurs after weaker warmings “precondition” the polar vortex for breaking, it involves a split of the polar vortex, and it has a downward-propagating signature. These similarities suggest that the Southern Hemisphere SSW of 2002 might itself have been caused by transient baroclinic wave–wave interaction. The simple model used for this study also provides some insight into how often such extreme events might occur. The frequency distribution of SSWs in the model has exponential, as opposed to Gaussian, tails. This suggests that very large amplitude SSWs, though rare, might occur with higher frequency than might be naively expected. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The influence of zonally asymmetric boundary conditions on the leading modes of variability in a suite of atmospheric general circulation models is investigated. The set of experiments consists of nine model configurations, with varying degrees and types of zonal asymmetry in their boundary conditions. The structure of the leading EOF varies with the zonal asymmetry of the base state for each model configuration. In particular, a close relationship is found between the structure of the EOF and the model storm tracks. An approximately linear relationship is found to hold between the magnitude of the zonal asymmetry of the leading EOF and of the storm tracks in the models. It is shown that this linear relationship extends to the observations. One-point correlation maps centered on the regions where the EOFs reach their maximum amplitude show similar structures for all configurations. These structures consist of a north–south dipole, resembling the observed structure of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). They are significantly more zonally localized than the leading EOF, but do resemble one-point correlation maps and sector EOFs calculated for a simulation with zonally symmetric boundary conditions. Thus, the leading EOF for each simulation appears to represent the longitudinal distribution of zonally localized NAO-like patterns. This longitudinal distribution appears to be tied to the distribution of high-frequency eddies, as represented by the storm tracks. A detailed momentum budget for each case confirms that high-frequency eddies play a crucial role in producing the NAO-like patterns. Other dynamical processes also play an important role, but vary with the details of the simulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The use of scanning detection in optical noncontact position sensing is proposed, and a prototype is implemented, using optical scanning of pseudorandom binary sequences printed in bar-code format. Light from a vibrating fiber tip is imaged onto the printed code using a GRIN lens, and the reflected light detected via the same lens, resulting in a single scanner module. Improved flexibility and signal processing possibilities are obtained compared to conventional diode array optical code readers. Performance limitations of scanning position encoders are analyzed and discussed. Suggestions for implementation using microoptoelectromechanical systems are presented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The extratropical circulation response to cooling of the polar-winter stratosphere in a simple AGCM is investigated. The AGCM is a dry hydrostatic primitive equation model with zonally symmetric boundary conditions and analytically specified physics. It is found that, as the polar-winter stratosphere is cooled, the tropospheric jet shifts poleward. This response projects almost entirely and positively (by convention) onto the AGCM's annular mode. At the same time, the vertical flux of wave activity from the troposphere to the stratosphere is reduced and the meridional flux of wave activity from high to low latitudes is increased. Thus, as the stratosphere is cooled, the stratospheric wave drag is reduced. In order to understand this response, the transient adjustment of the stratosphere–troposphere system is investigated using an ensemble of “switch on” stratospheric cooling runs of the AGCM. The response to the switch-on stratospheric cooling descends from the upper stratosphere into the troposphere on a time scale that matches simple downward-control theory estimates. The downward-control analysis is pursued with a zonally symmetric model that uses as input the thermal and eddy-driving terms from the eddying AGCM. With this model, the contributions to the response from the thermal and eddy-driving perturbations can be investigated separately, in the absence of eddy feedbacks. It is found that the stratospheric thermal perturbation, in the absence of such feedbacks, induces a response that is confined to the stratosphere. The stratospheric eddy-driving perturbation, on the other hand, induces a response that penetrates into the midtroposphere but does not account, in the zonally symmetric model, for the tropospheric jet shift. Furthermore, the tropospheric eddy-driving perturbation, in the zonally symmetric model, induces a strong upward response in the stratospheric winds. From these experiments and from additional experiments with the eddying AGCM, it is concluded that the stratospheric eddy-driving response induces a tropospheric response, but that the full circulation response results from a two-way coupling between the stratosphere and the troposphere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The annular mode simulated by an atmospheric general circulation model with a zonally symmetric lower boundary is investigated. The annular mode, defined as the leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) of the zonal-mean surface pressure, has a meridional structure consisting of a north-south dipole, similar to observations. The leading EOF of the zonally varying surface pressure has the same meridional structure and is also zonally symmetric. Because the lower boundary is zonally symmetric, composites of days with high projection onto the mode have, to within sampling error, no zonal structure. However, individual periods during which the zonalmean surface pressure projects strongly onto the annular mode are dominated by zonally localized structures. Thus, the model annular mode represents a zonally homogeneous distribution of zonally localized events with a similar meridional structure, rather than a zonally symmetric mode of variability per se. Individual annularmode events typically show a north-south teleconnection pattern whose meridional structure closely resembles the annular mode and whose zonal structure extends 60° to 90° in longitude, with a slight northwest-southeast offset between its centers of action. Similar structures are found for EOFs calculated over a subset of the domain corresponding to the width of the Atlantic basin. The spatial structure of both the teleconnection pattern and the regional EOFs resemble the observed North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The response of the Southern Hemisphere (SH), extratropical, atmospheric general circulation to transient, anthropogenic, greenhouse warming is investigated in a coupled climate model. The extratropical circulation response consists of a SH summer half-year poleward shift of the westerly jet and a year-round positive wind anomaly in the stratosphere and the tropical upper troposphere. Along with the poleward shift of the jet, there is a poleward shift of several related fields, including the belt of eddy momentum-flux convergence and the mean meridional overturning in the atmosphere and in the ocean. The tropospheric wind response projects strongly onto the model's "Southern Annular Mode" (also known as the "Antarctic oscillation"), which is the leading pattern of variability of the extratropical zonal winds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Studies the theory of nonzonal wave-mean flow interaction in two-dimensional horizontal flows, by exploring a dynamic analogy with the density thickness flux approach. Role of large-scale extratropical eddies in the atmospheric general circulation; Potential vorticity (PV) thickness and modified mean PV equations; Dynamics of the equation; Summary; Discussion.

Studies the barotropic modulation using simple models of wave propagation. Separation of regions of uniform barotropic potential vorticity; Modulation of the structure and amplitude of upper-tropospheric eddies by the longitudinal variations in the upper-tropospheric time-mean flow; Analysis by nonlinear contour-dynamical simulations.

The article presents a reply to comments made by scholar W.A. Robinson on his paper "The Structure and Composition of the Annular Modes in an Aquaplanet General Circulation Model." Robinson argues that the results of authors are not inconsistent with the presence of an annular mode (AM) in the numerical model used. He suggests that the zonally asymmetric character of authors' AM events is due to the superposition of independent annular and nonannular features, with AMs being a real dynamical phenomenon independent of the zonally asymmetric eddying motion.

Given uncertainty in the processes involved in polar amplification, elucidating the role of poleward heat and moisture transport is crucial. The Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP) permits robust separation of the effects of sea ice loss from sea surface warming under climate change. We utilize a moist isentropic circulation framework that accounts for moisture transport, condensation, and eddy transport, in order to analyze the circulation connecting the mid‐latitudes and the Arctic. In PAMIP's atmospheric general circulation model experiments, prescribed sea ice loss reduces poleward heat transport (PHT) by warming the returning moist isentropic circulation at high latitudes, while prescribed warming of the ocean surface increases PHT by strengthening the moist isentropic circulation. Inter‐model spread of PHT into the Arctic reflects the tug‐of‐war between sea‐ice and surface‐warming effects. Plain Language Summary: A major conundrum in current climate science is to understand what Arctic changes imply for the climate and environment in mid‐latitude regions. The Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP) designed a set of climate model experiments to specifically answer this question in a carefully designed, idealized framework. PAMIP's approach is to separate historic and projected climate change into parts associated with Arctic sea ice loss and ocean surface warming and investigate how these two contributions can influence the atmosphere. To isolate these effects, only models can be used, because, in reality, sea ice loss and ocean surface warming are strongly linked together. This letter focuses on what the PAMIP experiments imply for the transport and redistribution of heat and moisture in the atmosphere. In PAMIP, we learn that Arctic sea ice loss causes the atmosphere to reduce the transport of dry and cold air away from the Arctic while ocean warming causes more transport of moist warm air toward the Arctic. These two effects are in a tug‐of‐war, suggesting that climate change can cause a mix of competing impacts on the global energy transport from the tropics to the Arctic. Key Points: Sea ice loss exports static energy from the Arctic by warming the equatorward branch of the global mass circulationSea surface warming imports static energy into the Arctic by increasing the mid‐latitude mass transport, overwhelming the sea ice effectThere is more spread amongst models for the effect of sea‐surface warming than for sea ice loss [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Arctic moisture transport is dominated by planetary‐scale waves in reanalysis. Planetary waves are influenced by localized Sea‐Surface Temperature (SST) features such as the tropical warm pool. Here, an aquaplanet model is used to clarify the link between tropical SST anomalies and Arctic moisture transport. In a zonally uniform setup with no climatological east‐west gradients, Arctic moisture transport is dominated by transient planetary waves, as in reanalysis. Warming tropical SSTs by heating the ocean strengthens Arctic moisture transport, mediated mostly by changes in water vapor rather than eddies. This strengthening occurs whether the tropical warming is zonally uniform or localized. Cooling tropical SSTs weakens Arctic moisture transport; however, unlike warming, the pattern matters, with localized cooling producing stronger transport changes owing to nonlinear feedbacks in the surface energy budget. Thus, the simulations show that localized tropical SST anomalies influence Arctic moisture transport differently than uniform anomalies, but only in cooling scenarios. Plain Language Summary: Northward transport of water vapor strongly influences Arctic climate. Most of the transport is accomplished by atmospheric waves with large east‐west scale extending around the earth. These waves can be generated by warm ocean waters in the western tropical Pacific. Here, a simplified climate model with an ocean‐covered surface is used to clarify the processes linking the tropical ocean and Arctic moisture transport. Arctic transport in the model is accomplished by waves that are similar to observations, suggesting it is a useful tool. Warming the tropical ocean strengthens Arctic transport similarly whether the warming pattern is concentrated in a specific location or spread out equally at all longitudes. The strengthening results mostly from an increase in water vapor arising from an increase in the holding capacity of the atmosphere at warmer temperatures. Cooling the tropical ocean weakens Arctic transport but, unlike warming, cooling concentrated in a specific location weakens the transport more than if it is spread out equally at all longitudes. The different responses arise because ocean temperatures adjust differently to warming vs. cooling. Thus, localized cooling of tropical ocean temperatures appears to be a special case in terms of its influence on moisture transport into the Arctic. Key Points: Arctic moisture transport is dominated by transient planetary waves in aquaplanet model driven by zonally uniform boundary conditionsTropical sea‐surface temperature anomalies affect Arctic moisture transport mostly via changes in water vaporLocalized tropical perturbations alter Arctic moisture transport more than uniform perturbations for cooling but not warming [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Evaporation adds moisture to the atmosphere, while condensation removes it. Condensation also adds thermal energy to the atmosphere, which must be removed from the atmosphere by radiative cooling. As a result of these two processes, there is a net flow of energy driven by surface evaporation adding energy and radiative cooling removing energy from the atmosphere. Here, we calculate the implied heat transport of this process to find the atmospheric heat transport in balance with the surface evaporation. In modern-day Earth-like climates, evaporation varies strongly between the equator and the poles, while the net radiative cooling in the atmosphere is nearly meridionally uniform, and as a consequence, the heat transport governed by evaporation is similar to the total poleward heat transport of the atmosphere. This analysis is free from cancellations between moist and dry static energy transports, which greatly simplifies the interpretation of atmospheric heat transport and its relationship to the diabatic heating and cooling that governs the atmospheric heat transport. We further demonstrate, using a hierarchy of models, that much of the response of atmospheric heat transport to perturbations, including increasing CO2 concentrations, can be understood from the distribution of evaporation changes. These findings suggest that meridional gradients in surface evaporation govern atmospheric heat transport and its changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The classical problem of predicting the atmospheric circulation response to extratropical surface forcing is revisited in the context of the observed connection between autumnal snow cover anomalies over Siberia and wintertime anomalies of the northern annular mode (NAM). Previous work has shown that in general circulation model (GCM) simulations in which autumnal Siberian snow forcing is prescribed, a vertically propagating Rossby wave train is generated that propagates into the stratosphere, drives dynamical stratospheric warming, and induces a negative NAM response that couples to the troposphere. Important questions remain regarding the dynamics of the response to this surface cooling. It is shown that previously unexplained aspects of the evolution of the response in a comprehensive GCM can be explained by examining the time evolution of the phasing, and hence the linear interference, between the Rossby wave response and the background climatological stationary wave. When the wave response and background wave are in phase, wave activity into the stratosphere is amplified and the zonal-mean stratosphere--troposphere NAM response displays a negative tendency; when they are out of phase, wave activity into the stratosphere is reduced and the NAM response displays a positive tendency. The effects of linear interference are probed further in a simplified GCM, where an imposed lower tropospheric cooling is varied in position, strength, and sign. As in the comprehensive GCM, linear interference strongly influences the response over a realistic range of forcing strengths. The transition from linear to nonlinear behavior is shown to depend simply on forcing strength. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Variability in the extent of fall season snow cover over the Eurasian sector has been linked in observations to a teleconnection with the winter northern annular mode pattern. Here, the dynamics of this teleconnection are investigated using a 100-member ensemble of transient integrations of the GFDL atmospheric general circulation model (AM2). The model is perturbed with a simple persisted snow anomaly over Siberia and is integrated from October through December. Strong surface cooling occurs above the anomalous Siberian snow cover, which produces a tropospheric form stress anomaly associated with the vertical propagation of wave activity. This wave activity response drives wave–mean flow interaction in the lower stratosphere and subsequent downward propagation of a negative-phase northern annular mode response back into the troposphere. A wintertime coupled stratosphere–troposphere response to fall season snow forcing is also found to occur even when the snow forcing itself does not persist into winter. Finally, the response to snow forcing is compared in versions of the same model with and without a well-resolved stratosphere. The version with the well-resolved stratosphere exhibits a faster and weaker response to snow forcing, and this difference is tied to the unrealistic representation of the unforced lower-stratospheric circulation in that model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A diagnostic of Northern Hemisphere winter extratropical stratosphere–troposphere interactions is presented to facilitate the study of stratosphere–troposphere coupling and to examine what might influence these interactions. The diagnostic is a multivariate EOF combining lower-stratospheric planetary wave activity flux in December with sea level pressure in January. This EOF analysis captures a strong linkage between the vertical component of lower-stratospheric wave activity over Eurasia and the subsequent development of hemisphere-wide surface circulation anomalies, which are strongly related to the Arctic Oscillation. Wintertime stratosphere–troposphere events picked out by this diagnostic often have a precursor in autumn: years with large October snow extent over Eurasia feature strong wintertime upward-propagating planetary wave pulses, a weaker wintertime polar vortex, and high geopotential heights in the wintertime polar troposphere. This provides further evidence for predictability of wintertime circulation based on autumnal snow extent over Eurasia. These results also raise the question of how the atmosphere will respond to a modified snow cover in a changing climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A simple dynamical model is presented for the basic spatial and temporal structure of the large-scale modes of intraseasonal variability and associated variations in the zonal index. Such variability in the extratropical atmosphere is known to be represented by fairly well-defined patterns, and among the most prominent are the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and a more zonally symmetric pattern known as an annular mode, which is most pronounced in the Southern Hemisphere. These patterns may be produced by the momentum fluxes associated with large-scale midlatitude stirring, such as that provided by baroclinic eddies. It is shown how such stirring, as represented by a simple stochastic forcing in a barotropic model, leads to a variability in the zonal flow via a variability in the eddy momentum flux convergence and to patterns similar to those observed. Typically, the leading modes of variability may be characterized as a mixture of “wobbles” in the zonal jet position and “pulses” in the zonal jet strength. If the stochastic forcing is statistically zonally uniform, then the resulting patterns of variability as represented by empirical orthogonal functions are almost zonally uniform and the pressure pattern is dipolar in the meridional direction, resembling an annular mode. If the forcing is enhanced in a zonally localized region, thus mimicking the effects of a storm track over the ocean, then the resulting variability pattern is zonally localized, resembling the North Atlantic Oscillation. This suggests that the North Atlantic Oscillation and annular modes are produced by the same mechanism and are manifestations of the same phenomenon. The time scale of variability of the patterns is longer than the decorrelation time scale of the stochastic forcing, because of the temporal integration of the forcing by the equations of motion limited by the effects of nonlinear dynamics and friction. For reasonable parameters these produce a decorrelation time of the order of 5–10 days. The model also produces some long-term (100 days or longer) variability, without imposing such variability via the external parameters except insofar as it is contained in the nearly white stochastic forcing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]