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Background: Complex traumatic events associated with armed conflict, forcible displacement, childhood sexual abuse, and domestic violence are increasingly prevalent. People exposed to complex traumatic events are at risk of not only posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) but also other mental health comorbidities. Whereas evidence-based psychological and pharmacological treatments are effective for single-event PTSD, it is not known if people who have experienced complex traumatic events can benefit and tolerate these commonly available treatments. Furthermore, it is not known which components of psychological interventions are most effective for managing PTSD in this population. We performed a systematic review and component network meta-analysis to assess the effectiveness of psychological and pharmacological interventions for managing mental health problems in people exposed to complex traumatic events.Methods and Findings: We searched CINAHL, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, EMBASE, International Pharmaceutical Abstracts, MEDLINE, Published International Literature on Traumatic Stress, PsycINFO, and Science Citation Index for randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and non-RCTs of psychological and pharmacological treatments for PTSD symptoms in people exposed to complex traumatic events, published up to 25 October 2019. We adopted a nondiagnostic approach and included studies of adults who have experienced complex trauma. Complex-trauma subgroups included veterans; childhood sexual abuse; war-affected; refugees; and domestic violence. The primary outcome was reduction in PTSD symptoms. Secondary outcomes were depressive and anxiety symptoms, quality of life, sleep quality, and positive and negative affect. We included 116 studies, of which 50 were conducted in hospital settings, 24 were delivered in community settings, seven were delivered in military clinics for veterans or active military personnel, five were conducted in refugee camps, four used remote delivery via web-based or telephone platforms, four were conducted in specialist trauma clinics, two were delivered in home settings, and two were delivered in primary care clinics; clinical setting was not reported in 17 studies. Ninety-four RCTs, for a total of 6,158 participants, were included in meta-analyses across the primary and secondary outcomes; 18 RCTs for a total of 933 participants were included in the component network meta-analysis. The mean age of participants in the included RCTs was 42.6 ± 9.3 years, and 42% were male. Nine non-RCTs were included. The mean age of participants in the non-RCTs was 40.6 ± 9.4 years, and 47% were male. The average length of follow-up across all included studies at posttreatment for the primary outcome was 11.5 weeks. The pairwise meta-analysis showed that psychological interventions reduce PTSD symptoms more than inactive control (k = 46; n = 3,389; standardised mean difference [SMD] = -0.82, 95% confidence interval [CI] -1.02 to -0.63) and active control (k-9; n = 662; SMD = -0.35, 95% CI -0.56 to -0.14) at posttreatment and also compared with inactive control at 6-month follow-up (k = 10; n = 738; SMD = -0.45, 95% CI -0.82 to -0.08). Psychological interventions reduced depressive symptoms (k = 31; n = 2,075; SMD = -0.87, 95% CI -1.11 to -0.63; I2 = 82.7%, p = 0.000) and anxiety (k = 15; n = 1,395; SMD = -1.03, 95% CI -1.44 to -0.61; p = 0.000) at posttreatment compared with inactive control. Sleep quality was significantly improved at posttreatment by psychological interventions compared with inactive control (k = 3; n = 111; SMD = -1.00, 95% CI -1.49 to -0.51; p = 0.245). There were no significant differences between psychological interventions and inactive control group at posttreatment for quality of life (k = 6; n = 401; SMD = 0.33, 95% CI -0.01 to 0.66; p = 0.021). Antipsychotic medicine (k = 5; n = 364; SMD = -0.45; -0.85 to -0.05; p = 0.085) and prazosin (k = 3; n = 110; SMD = -0.52; -1.03 to -0.02; p = 0.182) were effective in reducing PTSD symptoms. Phase-based psychological interventions that included skills-based strategies along with trauma-focused strategies were the most promising interventions for emotional dysregulation and interpersonal problems. Compared with pharmacological interventions, we observed that psychological interventions were associated with greater reductions in PTSD and depression symptoms and improved sleep quality. Sensitivity analysis showed that psychological interventions were acceptable with lower dropout, even in studies rated at low risk of attrition bias. Trauma-focused psychological interventions were superior to non-trauma-focused interventions across trauma subgroups for PTSD symptoms, but effects among veterans and war-affected populations were significantly reduced. The network meta-analysis showed that multicomponent interventions that included cognitive restructuring and imaginal exposure were the most effective for reducing PTSD symptoms (k = 17; n = 1,077; mean difference = -37.95, 95% CI -60.84 to -15.16). Our use of a non-diagnostic inclusion strategy may have overlooked certain complex-trauma populations with severe and enduring mental health comorbidities. Additionally, the relative contribution of skills-based intervention components was not feasibly evaluated in the network meta-analysis.Conclusions: In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we observed that trauma-focused psychological interventions are effective for managing mental health problems and comorbidities in people exposed to complex trauma. Multicomponent interventions, which can include phase-based approaches, were the most effective treatment package for managing PTSD in complex trauma. Establishing optimal ways to deliver multicomponent psychological interventions for people exposed to complex traumatic events is a research and clinical priority. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The amount of grey literature and 'softer' intelligence from social media or websites is vast. Given the long lead‐times of producing high‐quality peer‐reviewed health information, this is causing a demand for new ways to provide prompt input for secondary research. To our knowledge, this is the first review of automated data extraction methods or tools for health‐related grey literature and soft data, with a focus on (semi)automating horizon scans, health technology assessments (HTA), evidence maps, or other literature reviews. We searched six databases to cover both health‐ and computer‐science literature. After deduplication, 10% of the search results were screened by two reviewers, the remainder was single‐screened up to an estimated 95% sensitivity; screening was stopped early after screening an additional 1000 results with no new includes. All full texts were retrieved, screened, and extracted by a single reviewer and 10% were checked in duplicate. We included 84 papers covering automation for health‐related social media, internet fora, news, patents, government agencies and charities, or trial registers. From each paper, we extracted data about important functionalities for users of the tool or method; information about the level of support and reliability; and about practical challenges and research gaps. Poor availability of code, data, and usable tools leads to low transparency regarding performance and duplication of work. Financial implications, scalability, integration into downstream workflows, and meaningful evaluations should be carefully planned before starting to develop a tool, given the vast amounts of data and opportunities those tools offer to expedite research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Risk behaviours, such as smoking and physical inactivity account for up to two-thirds of all cardiovascular deaths, and are associated with substantial increased mortality in many conditions including cancer and diabetes. As risk behaviours are thought to co-occur in individuals we conducted a systematic review of studies addressing clustering or co-occurrence of risk behaviours and their predictors. As the main aim of the review was to inform public health policy in England we limited inclusion to studies conducted in the UK.Methods: Key databases were searched from 1990 to 2016. We included UK based cross-sectional and longitudinal studies that investigated risk behaviours such as smoking, physical inactivity, unhealthy diet. High heterogeneity precluded meta-analyses.Results: Thirty-seven studies were included in the review (32 cross-sectional and five longitudinal). Most studies investigated unhealthy diet, physical inactivity, alcohol misuse, and smoking. In general adult populations, there was relatively strong evidence of clustering between alcohol misuse and smoking; and unhealthy diet and smoking. For young adults, there was evidence of clustering between sexual risk behaviour and smoking, sexual risk behaviour and illicit drug use, and sexual risk behaviour and alcohol misuse. The strongest associations with co-occurrence and clustering of multiple risk behaviours were occupation (up to 4-fold increased odds in lower SES groups) and education (up to 5-fold increased odds in those with no qualifications).Conclusions: Among general adult populations, alcohol misuse and smoking was the most commonly identified risk behaviour cluster. Among young adults, there was consistent evidence of clustering found between sexual risk behaviour and substance misuse. Socio-economic status was the strongest predictor of engaging in multiple risk behaviours. This suggests the potential for interventions targeting multiple risk behaviours either sequentially or concurrently particularly where there is evidence of clustering. In addition, there is potential for intervening at the social or environmental level due to the strong association with socio-economic status. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Modifiable lifestyle risk behaviours such as smoking, unhealthy diet, physical inactivity and alcohol misuse are the leading causes of major, non-communicable diseases worldwide. It is increasingly being recognised that interventions which target more than one risk behaviour may be an effective and efficient way of improving people’s lifestyles. To date, there has been no attempt to summarise the global evidence base for interventions targeting multiple risk behaviours. Objective: To identify and map the characteristics of studies evaluating multiple risk behaviour change interventions targeted at adult populations in any country. Methods: Seven bibliographic databases were searched between January, 1990, and January/ May, 2013. Authors of protocols, conference abstracts, and other relevant articles were contacted. Study characteristics were extracted and inputted into Eppi-Reviewer 4. Results: In total, 220 studies were included in the scoping review. Most were randomised controlled trials (62%) conducted in the United States (49%), and targeted diet and physical activity (56%) in people from general populations (14%) or subgroups of general populations (45%). Very few studies had been conducted in the Middle East (2%), Africa (0.5%), or South America (0.5%). There was also a scarcity of studies conducted among young adults (1%), or racial and minority ethnic populations (4%) worldwide. Conclusions: Research is required to investigate the interrelationships of lifestyle risk behaviours in varying cultural contexts around the world. Cross-cultural development and evaluation of multiple risk behaviour change interventions is also needed, particularly in populations of young adults and racial and minority ethnic populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Major depression is common in stroke patients and associated with increased rates of disability and mortality. Identifying depression may improve mental and physical health. The aim of this review was to determine the most accurate tool for detecting poststroke depression. Methods: Seven databases were searched up to November 2012. Two authors selected studies using International Classification of Disease or Diagnostic and Statistical Manual diagnosis of depression as the reference standard. Two authors extracted data and assessed methodological quality. Included studies were synthesised using meta-analyses. Results: A total of 24 included studies provided data on 2907 participants. The Center of Epidemiological Studies-Depression Scale (CESD) (sensitivity: 0.75; 95% CI 0.60 to 0.85; specificity: 0.88; 95% CI 0.71 to 0.95), the Hamilton Depression Rating Scale (HDRS) (sensitivity: 0.84; 95% CI 0.75 to 0.90; specificity:0.83; 95% CI 0.72 to 0.90) and the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ)-9 (sensitivity: 0.86; 95% CI 0.70 to 0.94; specificity: 0.79; 95% CI 0.60 to 0.90) appeared to be the optimal measures for screening measures. However, the clinical utility of all tools was modest for casefinding. Interpretation: There are a number of possible instruments that may help in screening for poststroke depression but none are satisfactory for case-finding. Preliminary data suggests the CESD, HDRS or the PHQ-9 as the most promising options. Although it should be noted such scales should not be used in isolation but followed up with a more detailed clinical assessment. While there is promising data for the PHQ-2 in other populations, it performed less well than other measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) is one of the most prevalent anxiety disorders, with important implications for patients and healthcare resources. However, few economic evaluations of pharmacological treatments for GAD have been published to date, and those available have assessed only a limited number of drugs. Objective: To assess the cost effectiveness of pharmacological interventions for patients with GAD in the UK. Methods: A decision-analytic model in the form of a decision tree was constructed to compare the costs and QALYs of six drugs used as first-line pharmacological treatments in people with GAD (duloxetine, escitalopram, paroxetine, pregabalin, sertraline and venlafaxine extended release [XL]) and 'no pharmacological treatment'. The analysis adopted the perspective of the NHS and Personal Social Services (PSS) in the UK. Efficacy data were derived from a systematic literature review of double-blind, randomized controlled trials and were synthesized using network meta-analytic techniques. Two network meta-analyses were undertaken to assess the comparative efficacy (expressed by response rates) and tolerability (expressed by rates of discontinuation due to intolerable side effects) of the six drugs and no treatment in the study population. Cost data were derived from published literature and national sources, supplemented by expert opinion. The price year was 2011. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was conducted to evaluate the underlying uncertainty of the model input parameters. Results: Sertraline was the best drug in limiting discontinuation due to side effects and the second best drug in achieving response in patients not discontinuing treatment due to side effects. It also resulted in the lowest costs and highest number of QALYs among all treatment options assessed. Its probability of being the most cost-effective drug reached 75 % at a willingness-to-pay threshold of £20,000 per extra QALY gained. Conclusion: Sertraline appears to be the most cost-effective drug in the treatment of patients with GAD. However, this finding is based on limited evidence for sertraline (two published trials). Sertraline is not licensed for the treatment of GAD in the UK, but is commonly used by primary care practitioners for the treatment of depression and mixed depression and anxiety. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims: There is substantial evidence showing an association between parental substance use and child substance use and/or mental health problems. Most research focuses upon maternal substance use, with the influence of paternal substance use often being overlooked. We aimed to investigate the differential effects of maternal and paternal substance use upon children aged 0–18 years. Methods: We used systematic review methods to identify observational studies examining the association between either maternal or paternal substance use and child substance use and/or mental health problems. The odds ratio (OR) effect measure was used, for ease of computation. We used a random‐effects model with the inverse variance method to meta‐analyse the findings from eligible studies. Results: We included 17 unique studies with a total of 47 374 child participants. Maternal and paternal substance use were both associated with increased odds of child any drug use [OR = 2.09; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.53, 2.86; n = 12 349 participants; three studies and OR = 2.86; 95% CI = 1.25, 6.54; n = 5692 participants; three studies, respectively], child alcohol problem use (OR = 2.16; 95% CI = 1.73, 2.71; n = 7339 participants; four studies and OR = 1.70; 95% CI = 1.36, 2.12; n = 14 219 participants; six studies), child externalizing problems (OR = 1.81; 95% CI = 1.01, 3.22; n = 1748 participants; three studies and OR = 1.60; 95% CI = 1.18, 2.17; n = 2508 participants; six studies) and child internalizing problems (OR = 1.60; 95% CI = 1.25, 2.06; n = 1748 participants; three studies and OR = 1.42; 95% CI = 1.12, 1.81; n = 2248 participants; five studies). Child any alcohol use was associated with maternal substance use only (OR = 2.26; 95% CI = 1.08, 4.70; n = 28 691 participants; five studies). Conclusions: Both maternal and paternal substance use are associated with child substance use and mental health problems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Background: To examine the validity of screening and case-finding tools used in the identification of depression as defined by an ICD10/DSM-IV criterion standard. Methods: We identified 63 studies involving 19 tools (in 33 publications) designed to help clinicians identify depression in cancer settings. We used a standardized rating system. We excluded 11 tools without at least two independent studies, leaving 8 tools for comparison. Results: Across all cancer stages there were 56 diagnostic validity studies (n=10,009). For case-finding, one stem question, two stem questions and the BDI-II all had level 2 evidence (2a, 2b and 2c respectively) and given their better acceptability we gave the stem questions a grade B recommendation. For screening, two stem questions had level 1b evidence (with high acceptability) and the BDI-II had level 2c evidence. For every 100 people screened in advanced cancer, the two questions would accurately detect 18 cases, while missing only 1 and correctly reassure 74 with 7 falsely identified. For every 100 people screened in non-palliative settings the BDI-II would accurately detect 17 cases, missing 2 and correctly re-assure 70, with 11 falsely identified as cases. The main cautions are the reliance on DSM-IV definitions of major depression, the large number of small studies and the paucity of data for many tools in specific settings. Conclusions: Although no single tool could be offered unqualified support, several tools are likely to improve upon unassisted clinical recognition. In clinical practice, all tools should form part of an integrated approach involving further follow-up, clinical assessment and evidence based therapy. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Objective: To examine the validity of the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) in the identification of psychiatric complications of cancer, as defined by a robust criterion standard. Methods: 50 analyses tested the depression subscale (HADS-D), anxiety subscale (HADS-A) or combined scales (HADS-T) against syndromal (clinical) depression (n =22), syndromal anxiety (n =4) or any mental ill health/distress (n =24), all defined by semi-structured psychiatric interview. Results: The HADS and its subscales had both strengths and limitations. Overall it appeared to perform marginally better in non-palliative cancer settings. Specific findings for each subscale were as follows. In the identification of depression the HADS-T, HADS-D and HADS-A had a pooled sensitivity and specificity of 82.0%, 77.0%; 71.6%, 82.6% and 80.5%, 77.8%, respectively. All versions performed poorly in case-finding but well in a screening capacity. For anxiety there were no HADS-D studies. The HADS-T and HADS-A had a pooled sensitivity and specificity of 83.9%, 69.9% and 48.7%, 78.7%. They were poor at case-finding but good as screening instruments. For distress (any mental ill health) the HADS-T, HADS-D and HADS-A had a pooled sensitivity and specificity of 72.8%, 80.6%; 75.7%, 66.3% and 65.7%, 71.3%, respectively. When screening for distress and anxiety the HADS-T was the optimal subscale. Conclusion: For the identification of depression, anxiety or distress in cancer settings, the HADS (including subscales) is not recommended as a case-finding instrument but it may, subject to concerns about its length, be a suitable addition to screening programme. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article discusses the challenges of modeling long-term survival in health economic decision models for cancer treatments. Specifically, it focuses on the use of a cure assumption in the context of neoadjuvant treatment for resectable non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) using nivolumab and chemotherapy. The article explores different methods of long-term survival modeling, such as flexible parametric models, cure models, mixture models, and landmark models. It also highlights the importance of conducting scenario analyses and considering statistical models that account for cure in a proportion of patients. The article concludes by emphasizing the need for adequate evidence and justification when implementing a cure assumption in economic models and suggests that fitting cure models could be beneficial in certain cases. [Extracted from the article]

Context: Multiple risk behaviors are common and associated with developing chronic conditions such as heart disease, cancer, or Type 2 diabetes. A systematic review, meta-analysis, and meta-regression of the effectiveness of multiple risk behavior interventions was conducted.Evidence Acquisition: Six electronic databases including MEDLINE, EMBASE, and PsycINFO were searched to August 2016. RCTs of non-pharmacologic interventions in general adult populations were selected. Studies targeting specific at-risk groups (such as people screened for cardiovascular risk factors or obesity) were excluded. Studies were screened independently. Study characteristics and outcomes were extracted and risk of bias assessed by one researcher and checked by another. The Behaviour Change Wheel and Oxford Implementation Index were used to code intervention content and context.Evidence Synthesis: Random-effects meta-analyses were conducted. Sixty-nine trials involving 73,873 individuals were included. Interventions mainly comprised education and skills training and were associated with modest improvements in most risk behaviors: increased fruit and vegetable intake (0.31 portions, 95% CI=0.17, 0.45) and physical activity (standardized mean difference, 0.25; 95% CI=0.13, 0.38), and reduced fat intake (standardized mean difference, -0.24; 95% CI=-0.36, -0.12). Although reductions in smoking were found (OR=0.78, 95% CI=0.68, 0.90), they appeared to be negatively associated with improvement in other behaviors (such as diet and physical activity). Preliminary evidence suggests that sequentially changing smoking alongside other risk behaviors was more effective than simultaneous change. But most studies assessed simultaneous rather than sequential change in risk behaviors; therefore, comparisons are sparse. Follow-up period and intervention characteristics impacted effectiveness for some outcomes.Conclusions: Interventions comprising education (e.g., providing information about behaviors associated with health risks) and skills training (e.g., teaching skills that equip participants to engage in less risky behavior) and targeting multiple risk behaviors concurrently are associated with small changes in diet and physical activity. Although on average smoking was reduced, it appeared changes in smoking were negatively associated with changes in other behaviors, suggesting it may not be optimal to target smoking simultaneously with other risk behaviors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective To ascertain the prevalence and predictors of mood disorders, determined by structured clinical interviews (ICD or DSM criteria) in people after stroke. Methods Major electronic databases were searched from inception to June 2016 for studies involving major depression (MDD), minor depression (MnD), dysthymia, adjustment disorder, any depressive disorder (any depressive disorder) and anxiety disorders. Studies were combined using both random and fixed effects meta-analysis and results were stratified as appropriate. Results Depression was examined on 147 occasions from 2 days to 7 years after stroke (mean 6.87 months, N = 33 in acute, N = 43 in rehabilitation and N = 69 in the community/outpatients). Across 128 analyses involving 15,573 patients assessed for major depressive disorder (MDD), the point prevalence of depression was 17.7% (95% CI = 15.6% to 20.0%) 0.65 analyses involving 9720 patients determined MnD was present in 13.1% in all settings (95% CI = 10.9% to 15.8%). Dysthymia was present in 3.1% (95% CI = 2.1% to 5.3%), adjustment disorder in 6.9% (95% CI = 4.6 to 9.7%) and anxiety in 9.8% (95% CI = 5.9% to 14.8%). Any depressive disorder was present in 33.5% (95% CI = 30.3% to 36.8%). The relative risk of any depressive disorder was higher following left (dominant) hemisphere stroke, aphasia, and among people with a family history and past history of mood disorders. Conclusion Depression, adjustment disorder and anxiety are common after stroke. Risk factors are aphasia, dominant hemispheric lesions and past personal/family history of depression but not time since stroke. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Liver transplantation ( LT) is a transformative, life-saving procedure with life-long sequale for patients and their caregivers. The impact of LT on the patient's main caregiver can be underestimated. We carried out a systematic review of the impact of LT on the Health-Related Quality of Life ( HRQL) of LT patients' main caregivers. We searched 13 medical databases from 1996 to 2015. We included studies with HRQL data on caregivers of patients following LT then quality assessed and narratively synthesized the findings from these studies. Of 7076 initial hits, only five studies fell within the scope of this study. In general, they showed caregiver burden persisted in the early period following LT. One study showed improvements, however, the other four showed caregiver's levels of stress, anxiety and depression, remained similar or got worse post- LT and remained above that of the normal population. It was suggested that HRQL of the patient impacted on the caregiver and vice versa and may be linked to patient outcomes. No data were available investigating which groups were at particular risk of low HRQL following LT or if any interventions could improve this. The current information about LT caregivers' needs and factors that impact on their HRQL are not adequately defined. Large studies are needed to examine the effects of LT on the patients' family and caregivers to understand the importance of caregiver support to maximize outcomes of LT for the patient and their caregivers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The grades of recommendation, assessment, development and evaluation (GRADE) approach is widely implemented in systematic reviews, health technology assessment and guideline development organisations throughout the world. We have previously reported on the development of the Semi-Automated Quality Assessment Tool (SAQAT), which enables a semi-automated validity assessment based on GRADE criteria. The main advantage to our approach is the potential to improve inter-rater agreement of GRADE assessments particularly when used by less experienced researchers, because such judgements can be complex and challenging to apply without training. This is the first study examining the inter-rater agreement of the SAQAT. Methods: We conducted two studies to compare: a) the inter-rater agreement of two researchers using the SAQAT independently on 28 meta-analyses and b) the inter-rater agreement between a researcher using the SAQAT (who had no experience of using GRADE) and an experienced member of the GRADE working group conducting a standard GRADE assessment on 15 meta-analyses. Results: There was substantial agreement between independent researchers using the Quality Assessment Tool for all domains (for example, overall GRADE rating: weighted kappa 0.79; 95% CI 0.65 to 0.93). Comparison between the SAQAT and a standard GRADE assessment suggested that inconsistency was parameterised too conservatively by the SAQAT. Therefore the tool was amended. Following amendment we found fair-to-moderate agreement between the standard GRADE assessment and the SAQAT (for example, overall GRADE rating: weighted kappa 0.35; 95% CI 0.09 to 0.87). Conclusions: Despite a need for further research, the SAQAT may aid consistent application of GRADE, particularly by less experienced researchers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The grades of recommendation, assessment, development and evaluation (GRADE) approach is widely implemented in systematic reviews, health technology assessment and guideline development organisations throughout the world. A key advantage to this approach is that it aids transparency regarding judgments on the quality of evidence. However, the intricacies of making judgments about research methodology and evidence make the GRADE system complex and challenging to apply without training. Methods: We have developed a semi-automated quality assessment tool (SAQAT) l based on GRADE. This is informed by responses by reviewers to checklist questions regarding characteristics that may lead to unreliability. These responses are then entered into the Bayesian network to ascertain the probabilities of risk of bias, inconsistency, indirectness, imprecision and publication bias conditional on review characteristics. The model then combines these probabilities to provide a probability for each of the GRADE overall quality categories. We tested the model using a range of plausible scenarios that guideline developers or review authors could encounter. Results: Overall, the model reproduced GRADE judgements for a range of scenarios. Potential advantages over standard assessment are use of explicit and consistent weightings for different review characteristics, forcing consideration of important but sometimes neglected characteristics and principled downgrading where small but important probabilities of downgrading are accrued across domains. Conclusions: Bayesian networks have considerable potential for use as tools to assess the validity of research evidence. The key strength of such networks lies in the provision of a statistically coherent method for combining probabilities across a complex framework based on both belief and evidence. In addition to providing tools for less experienced users to implement reliability assessment, the potential for sensitivity analyses and automation may be beneficial for application and the methodological development of reliability tools. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Background: The Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS) has been evaluated in hospital settings but its validity and added value in primary care is uncertain. We therefore conducted a meta-analysis analysing the diagnostic accuracy, clinical utility and added value of the GDS in primary care. Methods: A comprehensive search identified 69 studies that measured the diagnostic validity of the GDS against a semi-structured psychiatric interview and of these 17 analyses (in 14 publications) took place in primary care. Seven studies examined the GDS30 and 10 studies examined the GDS15. Heterogeneity was moderate to high, therefore random effects meta-analysis was used. Results: Diagnostic accuracy of the GDS30 after meta-analytic weighting was given by a sensitivity of 77.4% (95% CI=66.3% to 86.8%) and a specificity=65.4% (95% CI=44.2% to 83.8%). For the GDS15 the sensitivity was 81.3% (95% CI=77.2% to 85.2%) and specificity=78.4% (95% CI=71.2% to 84.8%). The fraction correctly identified (also known as efficiency) by the GDS15 was significantly higher than the GDS30 (77.6% vs 71.2%, Chi2 =24.8 P <0.0001). The clinical utility of both the GDS30 and GDS15 was “poor” for case-finding (UI+ 0.29, UI+ 0.32 respectively). However the GDS15 was rated as “good” for screening (UI− 0.75) whereas the GDS30 was “adequate” (UI− 0.60). Concerning added value, when identification using the GDS was compared with general practitioners'' ability to diagnose late-life depressions unassisted by tools, at a prevalence of 15% the GDS30 had no added benefit whereas the GDS15 helped identify an additional 4 cases per 100 primary care attendees and also helped rule-out an additional 4 non-cases per 100 attendees. Thus we estimate the potential gain of the GDS15 in primary care to be 8% over unassisted clinical detection but at a cost of 3–4 minutes of extra time per appointment. Conclusion: The GDS yields potential added value in primary care. We recommend the GDS15 but not the GDS30 in the diagnosis of late-life depression in primary care. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]