Search

Fluctuations of wet and dry years have long been investigated in the climatology and hydrology literature. In this, the second of two papers investigating runs of consecutive dry years, the magnitude, also known as the intensity, and severity (length × magnitude) of dry runs are investigated. In the first paper the length of dry runs was investigated. Periods of consecutive dry years are associated with drought and the attendant physical and economic stresses that are placed on society. Run magnitudes of consecutive years equal to or below the median were analysed for 3863 precipitation and 1236 runoff stations from around the world. For both annual precipitation and runoff, run magnitude was found to be predominately related to interannual variability and to a lesser extent skewness. Run magnitude of annual runoff was observed to be greater than that for annual precipitation, due to annual runoff having a higher coefficient of variation than annual precipitation. Continental differences in run magnitude of annual runoff were observed and were consistent with continental differences in interannual variability reported previously. Annual run severity was also investigated and found to be independent of run length and strongly related to run magnitude. These findings differ from previously published work; this difference is primarily due to the methodology of comparing run metrics between stations (used in this paper) rather than at a station (previous research). The relationships between run magnitude, severity and interannual variability highlight the importance of adequately reproducing interannual variability within global climate models for future modelling of drought scenarios, as well as having economic implications for drought relief and management policy‐making. Copyright © 2005 Royal Meteorological Society. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The investigation of fluctuations of wet and dry years has a long history in the climatology and hydrology literature. In this, the first of two papers investigating runs of consecutive dry years, the lengths (persistence) of dry runs are investigated. In the second paper the magnitude/intensity and severity (length × magnitude) of dry runs will be investigated. Consecutive dry years are associated with drought, which is a significant physical and economic phenomenon that imposes great stress on ecosystems and societies. Run lengths of consecutive years equal to or below the median were analysed for 3863 precipitation and 1236 runoff stations from around the world. Run lengths were found to be similar across all continents and Köppen climate zones, expect for tropical and arid North Africa (Sahel), which showed a distinct bias toward longer run lengths than any other region of the world. Generally, the run length observed in annual runoff was found to be similar to that observed in annual precipitation for the same location. Both annual precipitation and runoff data were found to be well described by the lag-one autoregressive (AR(1)) model or by white noise. The influence of the El Niño–southern oscillation on run lengths was not observed to be significant. The presence of decadal and multi-decadal oscillations was weakly observed in the results of the precipitation runs analysis. The faintness of the decadal and multi-decadal oscillation signal may be due to the sample sizes not being long enough and/or the runs analysis not being sensitive enough to detect their presence. Copyright © 2004 Royal Meteorological Society [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]