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Increasing fire severity and warmer, drier postfire conditions are making forests in the western United States (West) vulnerable to ecological transformation. Yet, the relative importance of and interactions between these drivers of forest change remain unresolved, particularly over upcoming decades. Here, we assess how the interactive impacts of changing climate and wildfire activity influenced conifer regeneration after 334 wildfires, using a dataset of postfire conifer regeneration from 10,230 field plots. Our findings highlight declining regeneration capacity across the West over the past four decades for the eight dominant conifer species studied. Postfire regeneration is sensitive to high-severity fire, which limits seed availability, and postfire climate, which influences seedling establishment. In the near-term, projected differences in recruitment probability between low- and high-severity fire scenarios were larger than projected climate change impacts for most species, suggesting that reductions in fire severity, and resultant impacts on seed availability, could partially offset expected climate-driven declines in postfire regeneration. Across 40 to 42% of the study area, we project postfire conifer regeneration to be likely following low-severity but not high-severity fire under future climate scenarios (2031 to 2050). However, increasingly warm, dry climate conditions are projected to eventually outweigh the influence of fire severity and seed availability. The percent of the study area considered unlikely to experience conifer regeneration, regardless of fire severity, increased from 5% in 1981 to 2000 to 26 to 31% by mid-century, highlighting a limited time window over which management actions that reduce fire severity may effectively support postfire conifer regeneration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The continued provision of water from rivers in the southwestern United States to downstream cities, natural communities and species is at risk due to higher temperatures and drought conditions in recent decades. Snowpack and snowfall levels have declined, snowmelt and peak spring flows are arriving earlier, and summer flows have declined. Concurrent to climate change and variation, a century of fire suppression has resulted in dramatic changes to forest conditions, and yet, few studies have focused on determining the degree to which changing forests have altered flows. In this study, we evaluated changes in flow, climate, and forest conditions in the Salt River in central Arizona from 1914–2012 to compare and evaluate the effects of changing forest conditions and temperatures on flows. After using linear regression models to remove the influence of precipitation and temperature, we estimated that annual flows declined by 8–29% from 1914–1963, coincident with a 2-fold increase in basal area, a 2-3-fold increase in canopy cover, and at least a 10-fold increase in forest density within ponderosa pine forests. Streamflow volumes declined by 37–56% in summer and fall months during this period. Declines in climate-adjusted flows reversed at mid-century when spring and annual flows increased by 10–31% from 1964–2012, perhaps due to more winter rainfall. Additionally, peak spring flows occurred about 12 days earlier in this period than in the previous period, coincident with winter and spring temperatures that increased by 1–2°C. While uncertainties remain, this study adds to the knowledge gained in other regions that forest change has had effects on flow that were on par with climate variability and, in the case of mid-century declines, well before the influence of anthropogenic warming. Current large-scale forest restoration projects hold some promise of recovering seasonal flows. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study evaluated patterns and drivers of vegetation change in a semi-arid grassland in southern Arizona across eleven years of extended drought and high temperatures, 2004–2014. Changes included declines in C4 perennial grass basal cover with patchy grass mortality, leaf litter increases, shrub declines, and increases in non-native grass Eragrostis lehmanniana . Linear mixed-effects models identified precipitation during January–June “extended spring” as the best predictor of grass basal cover, especially when plots were grouped by soil and topographic features. Models showed that a decrease in extended spring precipitation from 150 to 50 mm was associated with loss of one-quarter to one-half of plots' total grass cover. Association of grass declines with this novel season of drought is especially relevant because global circulation models predict steep declines in spring rainfall. Increasing E. lehmanniana dominance was also associated with native grass declines. There was little support over this time for predicted effects of livestock grazing or shrub encroachment. This study demonstrated how monitoring data from working landscapes can improve ecological understanding of drought. Findings also suggest managers could improve chances for sustaining resilience by responding to rainfall in multiple seasons, monitoring for mortality events, and establishing contingency plans for various types of drought. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The recent mortality of up to 20% of forests and woodlands in the southwestern United States, along with declining stream flows and projected future water shortages, heightens the need to understand how management practices can enhance forest resilience and functioning under unprecedented scales of drought and wildfire. To address this challenge, a combination of mechanical thinning and fire treatments are planned for 238,000 hectares (588,000 acres) of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forests across central Arizona, USA. Mechanical thinning can increase runoff at fine scales, as well as reduce fire risk and tree water stress during drought, but the effects of this practice have not been studied at scales commensurate with recent forest disturbances or under a highly variable climate. Modifying a historical runoff model, we constructed scenarios to estimate increases in runoff from thinning ponderosa pine at the landscape and watershed scales based on driving variables: pace, extent and intensity of forest treatments and variability in winter precipitation. We found that runoff on thinned forests was about 20% greater than unthinned forests, regardless of whether treatments occurred in a drought or pluvial period. The magnitude of this increase is similar to observed declines in snowpack for the region, suggesting that accelerated thinning may lessen runoff losses due to warming effects. Gains in runoff were temporary (six years after treatment) and modest when compared to mean annual runoff from the study watersheds (0–3%). Nonetheless gains observed during drought periods could play a role in augmenting river flows on a seasonal basis, improving conditions for water-dependent natural resources, as well as benefit water supplies for downstream communities. Results of this study and others suggest that accelerated forest thinning at large scales could improve the water balance and resilience of forests and sustain the ecosystem services they provide. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: While freshwater sustainability is generally defined as the provisioning of water for both people and the environment, in practice it is largely focused only on supplying water to furnish human population growth. Symptomatic of this is the state of Arizona, where rapid growth outside of the metropolitan Phoenix-Tucson corridor relies on the same groundwater that supplies year-round flow in rivers. Using Arizona as a case study, we present the first study in the southwestern United States that evaluates the potential impact of future population growth and water demand on streamflow depletion across multiple watersheds. Methodology/Principal Findings: We modeled population growth and water demand through 2050 and used four scenarios to explore the potential effects of alternative growth and water management strategies on river flows. Under the base population projection, we found that rivers in seven of the 18 study watersheds could be dewatered due to municipal demand. Implementing alternative growth and water management strategies, however, could prevent four of these rivers from being dewatered. Conclusions/Significance: The window of opportunity to implement water management strategies is narrowing. Because impacts from groundwater extraction are cumulative and cannot be immediately reversed, proactive water management strategies should be implemented where groundwater will be used to support new municipal demand. Our approach provides a low-cost method to identify where alternative water and growth management strategies may have the most impact, and demonstrates that such strategies can maintain a continued water supply for both people and the environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Presents a study which tested the hypothesis, that returning cultivated fields in southwestern Wyoming, to perennial grasses through the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) would increase labile pools of soil organic matter (SOM) and small-scale heterogeneity of SOM. Methodology used to conduct study; How the potential effects of CRP on soils in dryland wheat-flow areas was addressed; What study's findings suggested.

The future of dry forests around the world is uncertain given predictions that rising temperatures and enhanced aridity will increase drought‐induced tree mortality. Using forest management and ecological restoration to reduce density and competition for water offers one of the few pathways that forests managers can potentially minimize drought‐induced tree mortality. Competition for water during drought leads to elevated tree mortality in dense stands, although the influence of density on heat‐induced stress and the durations of hot or dry conditions that most impact mortality remain unclear.Understanding how competition interacts with hot‐drought stress is essential to recognize how, where and how much reducing density can help sustain dry forests in a rapidly changing world. Here, we integrated repeat measurements of 28,881 ponderosa pine trees across the western US (2000–2017) with soil moisture estimates from a water balance model to examine how annual mortality responds to competition, temperature and soil moisture conditions.Tree mortality responded most strongly to basal area, and was elevated in places with high mean temperatures, unusually hot 7‐year high temperature anomalies, and unusually dry 8‐year low soil moisture anomalies. Mortality was also lower in places that experienced unusually wet 3‐year soil moisture anomalies between measurements. Importantly, we found that basal area interacts with temperature and soil moisture, exacerbating mortality during times of stress imposed by high temperature or low moisture.Synthesis and applications. Our results imply that a 50% reduction in forest basal area could reduce drought‐driven tree mortality by 20%–80%. The largest impacts of density reduction are seen in areas with high current basal area and places that experience high temperatures and/or severe multiyear droughts. These interactions between competition and drought are critical to understand past and future patterns of tree mortality in the context of climate change, and provide information for resource managers seeking to enhance dry forest drought resistance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]