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Acute rheumatic fever (ARF) is a multiorgan inflammatory disorder that results from the body's autoimmune response to pharyngitis or a skin infection caused by Streptococcus pyogenes (Strep A). Acute rheumatic fever mainly affects those in low- and middle-income nations, as well as in indigenous populations in wealthy nations, where initial Strep A infections may go undetected. A single episode of ARF puts a person at increased risk of developing long-term cardiac damage known as rheumatic heart disease. We present case definitions for both definite and possible ARF, including initial and recurrent episodes, according to the 2015 Jones Criteria, and we discuss current tests available to aid in the diagnosis. We outline the considerations specific to ARF surveillance methodology, including discussion on where and how to conduct active or passive surveillance (eg, early childhood centers/schools, households, primary healthcare, administrative database review), participant eligibility, and the surveillance population. Additional considerations for ARF surveillance, including implications for secondary prophylaxis and follow-up, ARF registers, community engagement, and the impact of surveillance, are addressed. Finally, the core elements of case report forms for ARF, monitoring and audit requirements, quality control and assurance, and the ethics of conducting surveillance are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rheumatic heart disease (RHD) is a long-term sequela of acute rheumatic fever (ARF), which classically begins after an untreated or undertreated infection caused by Streptococcus pyogenes (Strep A). RHD develops after the heart valves are permanently damaged due to ARF. RHD remains a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in young adults in resource-limited and low- and middle-income countries. This article presents case definitions for latent, suspected, and clinical RHD for persons with and without a history of ARF, and details case classifications, including differentiating between definite or borderline according to the 2012 World Heart Federation echocardiographic diagnostic criteria. This article also covers considerations specific to RHD surveillance methodology, including discussions on echocardiographic screening, where and how to conduct active or passive surveillance (eg, early childhood centers/schools, households, primary healthcare), participant eligibility, and the surveillance population. Additional considerations for RHD surveillance, including implications for secondary prophylaxis and follow-up, RHD registers, community engagement, and the negative impact of surveillance, are addressed. Finally, the core elements of case report forms for RHD, monitoring and audit requirements, quality control and assurance, and the ethics of conducting surveillance are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: To address workforce shortages and expand access to care, we developed a telemedicine program incorporating existing infrastructure for delivery of cardiovascular care in Gulu, Northern Uganda. Our study had three objectives: 1) assess feasibility and clinical impact 2) evaluate patient/parent satisfaction and 3) estimate costs. Methods: All cardiology clinic visits during a two-year study period were included. All patients received an electrocardiogram and echocardiogram performed by a local nurse in Gulu which were stored and transmitted to the Uganda Heart Institute in the capital of Kampala for remote consultation by a cardiologist. Results were relayed to patients/families following cardiologist interpretation. The following telemedicine process was utilized: 1) clinical intake by nurse in Gulu; 2) ECG and echocardiography acquisition in Gulu; 3) echocardiography transmission to the Uganda Heart Institute in Kampala, Uganda; 4) remote telemedicine consultation by cardiologists in Kampala; and 5) communication of results to patients/families in Gulu. Clinical care and technical aspects were tracked. Diagnoses and recommendations were analyzed by age groups (0–5 years, 6–21 years, 22–50 years and > 50 years). A mixed methods approach involving interviews and surveys was used to assess patient satisfaction. Healthcare sector costs of telemedicine-based cardiovascular care were estimated using time-driven activity-based costing. Results: Normal studies made up 47%, 55%, 76% and 45% of 1,324 patients in the four age groups from youngest to oldest. Valvular heart disease (predominantly rheumatic heart disease) was the most common diagnosis in the older three age groups. Medications were prescribed to 31%, 31%, 24%, and 48% of patients in the four age groups. The median time for consultation was 7 days. A thematic analysis of focus group transcripts displayed an overall acceptance and appreciation for telemedicine, citing cost- and time-saving benefits. The cost of telemedicine was $29.48/visit. Conclusions: Our data show that transmission and interpretation of echocardiograms from a remote clinic in northern Uganda is feasible, serves a population with a high burden of heart disease, has a significant impact on patient care, is favorably received by patients, and can be delivered at low cost. Further study is needed to better assess the impact relative to existing standards of care and cost effectiveness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 2012, the World Heart Federation (WHF) published guidelines for the echocardiographic diagnosis of rheumatic heart disease (RHD). This study assesses individual reviewer performance and inter-rater agreement and reliability on the presence of any RHD, as well classification of RHD based on the 2012 WHF criteria. Four cardiologists individually reviewed echocardiograms in the context of a randomized clinical trial (ClinicalTrials.gov : NCT03346525) and participated in a blinded adjudication panel. Panel decision was the reference standard for diagnosis. Performance of individual reviewers to panel adjudication was compared through sensitivity and specificity analyses and inter-rater reliability was assessed between individual panelists using Fleiss free marginal multirater kappa. Echocardiograms from 784 children had two independent reports and panel adjudication. The accuracy of independent reviewers for any RHD had high sensitivity (94%, 95% CI 93–95%) and moderate specificity (62%, 95% CI 53–70%). Sensitivity and specificity for definite RHD was 61.3 (95% CI, 55.3–67.1) and 93.1 (95% CI, 91.6–94.4), with 86.8 (84.7–88.7) and 65.8 (61.0–70.4) for borderline RHD. There was moderate inter-rater agreement (κ = 0.66) on the presence of any RHD while agreement for specific 2012 WHF classification was only fair (κ = 0.51). The 2012 WHF guidelines are moderately reproducible when used by expert cardiologists. More cases of RHD were diagnosed by an consensus panel than by individual reviewers. A revision to the criteria is now warranted to further increase the reliability of the WHF criteria. • Compared to the panel consensus, individuals were less likely to diagnose any RHD, as well as morphological abnormalities. • Inter-rater agreement, even amongst experts, for 2012 WHF classification is fair. • Considerable variability remains amongst reviewers utilizing the WHF criteria. • Our data support the use of a > 2 reviewer system for more diagnosis of RHD. • A revision to the 2012 WHF is now warranted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Group A β-hemolytic Streptococcus (GAS) rates seen in Uganda are higher than results pooled globally. • This has implications for primary prevention of GAS. • GAS was universally susceptible to penicillin and trimethoprim–sulfamethoxazole. • Further knowledge of the acute streptococcal pharyngitis burden is essential. Group A β-hemolytic Streptococcus (GAS), also known as Streptococcus pyogenes , is responsible for an annual 600 million cases of acute pharyngitis globally, with 92% of those infections occurring in low-resource settings. Further knowledge of the acute streptococcal pharyngitis burden in low-resource settings is essential if serious post-streptococcal complications – rheumatic fever (RF) and its long-term sequel rheumatic heart disease (RHD) – are to be prevented. Two studies were conducted in school-aged children (5–16 years): a cross-sectional study of streptococcal pharyngeal carriage followed by a prospective cohort study of streptococcal sore throat over 4 weeks from March to April 2017. The cross-sectional study revealed an overall prevalence of GAS carriage of 15.9% (79/496, 95% confidence interval 12.8–19.5%). Among 532 children enrolled in the prospective cohort study, 358 (67%) reported 528 sore throats, with 221 (41.1%) experiencing at least one GAS-positive sore throat. The overall GAS-positive rate for sore throat was 41.8% (221/528). The GAS pharyngeal carriage rates seen in Uganda (15.9%, 95% confidence interval 12.8–19.5%) are higher than the most recent pooled results globally, at 12% (range 6–28%). Additionally, pilot data suggest a substantially higher percentage of sore throat that was GAS-positive (41.8%) compared to pooled global rates when active recruitment is employed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Adolescents and young adults (AYAs) living with HIV have high rates of co-sexually transmitted infections (STIs). During the coronavirus disease (COVID) pandemic, STI prevention strategies, including access to testing/treatment facilities, availability of health care workers, and condom availability, may have decreased. This study aimed to determine if differences in STI incidence for first infection and reinfection existed between the pre-COVID and COVID eras in a cohort of AYAs living with HIV in Atlanta, GA. Retrospective chart review was conducted for all patients between ages 13 and 24 at the Grady Ponce Clinic. Two eras were identified: a pre-COVID era (January 1, 2009–December31, 2019) and a COVID era (January 1, 2020–June 30, 2021). STIs recorded included gonorrhea, chlamydia, human papillomavirus, syphilis, trichomonas, herpes simplex virus, lymphogranuloma venereum, hepatitis C, bacterial vaginosis, and chancroid. First and recurrent incidence rates for any STIs were reported. Our sample included 766 sexually active AYAs with HIV. A total of 721 patients were included in the pre-COVID era and 583 (80.9%) had at least one STI. A total of 337 patients were included in the COVID era, and 158 had at least one STI (46.9%). The overall first STI incidence rate increased from 42.47 to 58.67 per 100 person-years (PY) and the recurrent STI incidence rate increased from 121.50 to 169.85 per 100 PY from the pre-COVID to the COVID era (p < 0.001). Our study demonstrated significantly higher incidence rates of first and recurrent STIs in AYAs living with HIV in the COVID era. We urge continuation of existing STI prevention programs to avoid secondary clinical and economic adverse effects of increased infections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Task sharing of TTE may improve capacity for heart failure diagnosis and management in patients in remote, low-resource settings but the impact on diagnostic accuracy and patient outcomes has not been studied. Objectives: Determine feasibility and impact of non-expert training in transthoracic echocardiography (TTE) to improve the diagnosis and outcomes of patients with suspected heart failure in Uganda. Methods: This two-part study examined an innovative training program to develop TTE competency among non-experts and used a pre-post design to determine the impact of decentralized TTE. Four of 8 non-experts (50%) passed a three-part training course. The training comprised of distance learning through a web-based curriculum, a 2-day hands-on workshop with cardiologists, and independent practice with remote mentorship. Continuous measures were compared (pre- vs. post-TTE) using t-tests or Wilcoxon rank-sum tests as distributionally appropriate and categorical variables assessed through chi-square testing. Sensitivity and specificity were calculated according to standard methodology comparing diagnosis pre- and post-TTE during phase 2. Results: Performance in the post-training phase showed good agreement with expert categorization (κ = 0.80) with diagnostic concordance in 421 of 454 studies (92.7%). TTE changed the preliminary diagnosis in 81% of patients, showing low specificity of clinical decision-making alone (14.2%; 95% CI 10.1–19.2%). Dilated cardiomyopathy, hypertensive heart disease with preserved systolic function, and right heart failure were the most underdiagnosed conditions prior to TTE while hypertensive heart disease with decreased systolic function was the most over-diagnosed condition. Conclusions: In conclusion, non-expert providers can achieve a high level of proficiency for the categorization of heart failure using handheld TTE in low-resource settings and use of telemedicine and remote mentorship may improve performance and feasibility. The addition of TTE resulted in substantial improvement in etiological specificity. Further study is needed to understand implications of this strategy on healthcare utilization, long-term patient outcomes, and cost. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To assess the impact of a peer-support group on knowledge, quality of life, and social support for children with rheumatic heart disease (RHD).Methods: Children diagnosed with RHD and receiving 4-weekly injectable penicillin were invited to participate in a monthly support group for 6 months. Pre- and post-intervention assessments included a baseline RHD knowledge assessment, a measure of health related quality of life (HRQOL) (PedsQLTM4.0), and a measure of social support (Hawthorne Friendship Scale). Groups incorporated elements of cooperative play and team building, RHD education, and emotional support.Results: 42 participants attended ≥3 groups and were included in the analyses. Attending support groups resulted in increased total HRQOL scores (60.3v 70.2, p<0.001), as well as the following HRQOL sub-scores (physical functioning 55.3v 68.6 (p<0.001), social functioning 64.2v 75.8 (p<0.001) and school functioning 59.2v 69.1 (p=0.001)). Significant increases in Friendship Scale scores (15.4v 19.7, p<0.001) and RHD Knowledge scores were observed (3.6v 6.4, p<0.001).Conclusions: Peer-support groups may be effective at normalizing decreased HRQOL scores and increasing RHD disease knowledge and social support.Practical Implications: Peer-support groups implemented in conjunction with RHD screening can minimize the negative psychosocial effects associated with early RHD detection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Children with cardiac disease are at significantly higher risk for in-hospital cardiac arrest (CA) compared with those admitted without cardiac disease. CA occurs in 2–6% of patients admitted to a pediatric intensive care unit (ICU) and 4–6% of children admitted to the pediatric cardiac-ICU. Treatment of in-hospital CA with cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) results in return of spontaneous circulation in 43–64% of patients and survival rate that varies from 20 to 51%. We aimed to investigate the change in functional status of survivors who experienced an in-hospital CA using the functional status scale (FSS) in our heart center by conducting a retrospective study of all patients 0–18 years who experienced CA between June 2015 and December 2020 in a free-standing university-affiliated quaternary children's hospital. Of the 165 CA patients, 61% (n = 100) survived to hospital discharge. The non-survivors had longer length from admission to CA, higher serum lactate levels peri-CA, and received higher number of epinephrine doses. Using FSS, of the survivors, 26% developed new morbidity, and 9% developed unfavorable outcomes. There was an association of unfavorable outcomes with longer CICU-LOS and number of epinephrine doses given. Sixty-one-percent of CA patients survived to hospital discharge. Of the survivors, 26% developed new morbidity and 91% had favorable outcomes. Future multicenter studies are needed to help better identify modifiable risk factors for development of poor outcomes and help improve outcomes of this fragile patient population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

LPLRFamide is a member of the RFamide peptide family that elicits an anorexigenic effect when centrally injected in chicks although the mechanism mediating this response is poorly understood. Therefore, the purpose of this experiment was to elucidate the hypothalamic mechanism of short-term anorexia after central administration of LPLRFamide in chicks. In Experiment 1 chicks centrally injected with LPLRFamide decreased food intake at 15 min but not 30 min following administration compared to vehicle-injected chicks. For Experiment 2, c-Fos immunoreactivity was quantified in several appetite-associated hypothalamic nuclei and in LPLRF-injected chicks, compared to vehicle-injected chicks, there was an increase in the number of reactive cells in the magnocellular division of the paraventricular nucleus. Lastly in Experiment 3, real time-PCR was performed and hypothalamic proopiomelanocortin (POMC) mRNA abundance was increased in LPRLFamide-injected chicks compared to vehicle-injected chicks. Thus, following central injection of LPLRFamide there is activation of the paraventricular nucleus of the hypothalamus and increased expression of hypothalamic POMC mRNA in chicks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Echocardiographic screening for detection of latent RHD has shown potential as a strategy to decrease the burden of disease. However, further research is needed to determine optimal implementation strategies. RHD results from a complex interplay between environment and host susceptibility. Family members share both and relatives of children with latent RHD may represent a high-risk group. The objective of this study was to use echocardiographic family screening to determine the relative risk of RHD among first-degree relatives of children with latent RHD compared to the risk in first-degree relatives of healthy peers. Methodology/Principal Findings: Previous school-based screening data were used to identify RHD positive children and RHD negative peers. All first-degree relatives ≥ 5 years were invited for echocardiography screening (2012 World Heart Federation Criteria). Sixty RHD positive cases (30 borderline/30 definite RHD) and 67 RHD negative cases were recruited. A total of 455/667 (68%) family members were screened. Definite RHD was more common in childhood siblings of RHD positive compared to RHD negative (p = 0.05). Children with any RHD were 4.5 times as likely to have a sibling with definite RHD, a risk that increased to 5.6 times when considering only cases with definite RHD. Mothers of RHD positive and RHD negative cases had an unexpectedly high rate of latent RHD (9.3%). Conclusions/Significance: Siblings of RHD positive cases with RHD are more likely to have definite RHD and the relative risk is highest if the index case has definite RHD. Future screening programs should consider implementation of sibling screening following detection of an RHD positive child. Larger screening studies of adults are needed, as data on prevalence of latent RHD outside of childhood are sparse. Future studies should prioritize implementation research to answer questions of how RHD screening can best be integrated into existing healthcare structures, ensuring practical and sustainable screening programs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background : Rheumatic heart disease (RHD) is a global cause of early heart failure. Early RHD is characterized by valvar regurgitation, leading to ventricular distention and possible elaboration of amino-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP). We investigated the ability of NT-proBNP to distinguish cases of latent RHD detected by echocardiographic screening from the controls. Materials and Methods : Ugandan children (N = 44, 36% males, mean age: 12 ± 2 years) with latent RHD (cases) and siblings (controls) by echocardiography were enrolled. Cases and controls were matched for age and sex, and they had normal hemoglobin (mean: 12.8 mg/dL). Children with congenital heart disease, pregnancy, left ventricular dilation or ejection fraction (EF) below 55%, or other acute or known chronic health conditions were excluded. RHD cases were defined by the World Heart Federation (WHF) 2012 consensus guideline criteria as definite. Controls had no echocardiography (echo) evidence for RHD. At the time of echo, venous blood samples were drawn and stored as serum. NT-proBNP levels were measured using sandwich immunoassay. Paired t-tests were used to compare NT-proBNP concentrations including sex-specific analyses. Results : The mean NT-proBNP concentration in the cases was 105.74 ± 67.21 pg/mL while in the controls, it was 86.63 ± 55.77 pg/mL. The cases did not differ from the controls (P = 0.3). In sex-specific analyses, male cases differed significantly from the controls (158.78 ± 68.82 versus 76 ± 42.43, P = 0.008). Female cases did not differ from the controls (75.44 ± 45.03 versus 92.30 ± 62.35 respectively, P = 0.4). Conclusion : Serum NT-proBNP did not distinguish between latent RHD cases and the controls. Sex and within-family exposures may confound this result. More investigation into biomarker-based RHD detection is warranted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Keywords: child; rheumatic heart disease; risk EN child rheumatic heart disease risk 1848 1850 3 06/09/23 20230613 NES 230613 The GOAL trial (Determining the Impact of Penicillin in Latent RHD; URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT03346525) was a randomized controlled trial of secondary antibiotic prophylaxis (SAP) compared with no prophylaxis among Ugandan children with latent, or screen-detected, rheumatic heart disease (RHD).[1],[2] SAP resulted in a significant reduction in RHD progression (worsening of diagnostic category) versus no prophylaxis (0.8% versus 8.3%; I P i <0.001), whereas nearly half of the children, regardless of SAP administration, regressed (improvement in diagnostic category) over 2 years.[2] Understanding risk factors for progression and regression of latent RHD at the time of screening echocardiogram could refine approaches to SAP in RHD, which would have both individual and health system benefit. In contrast, participants were more likely to regress if they were older at diagnosis and if they had borderline RHD, as compared with definite RHD. These data begin to unravel level of risk of RHD progression, with both sociodemographic and echocardiographic risk factors incorporated into the analyses. [Extracted from the article]

Acute poststreptococcal glomerulonephritis (APSGN) is an immune complex-induced glomerulonephritis that develops as a sequela of streptococcal infections. This article provides guidelines for the surveillance of APSGN due to group A Streptococcus (Strep A). The primary objectives of APSGN surveillance are to monitor trends in age- and sex-specific incidence, describe the demographic and clinical characteristics of patients with APSGN, document accompanying risk factors, then monitor trends in frequency of complications, illness duration, hospitalization rates, and mortality. This document provides surveillance case definitions for APSGN, including clinical and subclinical APSGN based on clinical and laboratory evidence. It also details case classifications that can be used to differentiate between confirmed and probable cases, and it discusses the current investigations used to provide evidence of antecedent Strep A infection. The type of surveillance recommended depends on the burden of APSGN in the community and the objectives of surveillance. Strategies for minimal surveillance and enhanced surveillance of APSGN are provided. Furthermore, a discussion covers the surveillance population and additional APSGN-specific surveillance considerations such as contact testing, active follow up of cases and contacts, frequency of reporting, surveillance visits, period of surveillance, and community engagement. Finally, the document presents core data elements to be collected on case report forms, along with guidance for documenting the course and severity of APSGN. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Rheumatic heart disease affects more than 40.5 million people worldwide and results in 306,000 deaths annually. Echocardiographic screening detects rheumatic heart disease at an early, latent stage. Whether secondary antibiotic prophylaxis is effective in preventing progression of latent rheumatic heart disease is unknown.Methods: We conducted a randomized, controlled trial of secondary antibiotic prophylaxis in Ugandan children and adolescents 5 to 17 years of age with latent rheumatic heart disease. Participants were randomly assigned to receive either injections of penicillin G benzathine (also known as benzathine benzylpenicillin) every 4 weeks for 2 years or no prophylaxis. All the participants underwent echocardiography at baseline and at 2 years after randomization. Changes from baseline were adjudicated by a panel whose members were unaware of the trial-group assignments. The primary outcome was echocardiographic progression of latent rheumatic heart disease at 2 years.Results: Among 102,200 children and adolescents who had screening echocardiograms, 3327 were initially assessed as having latent rheumatic heart disease, and 926 of the 3327 subsequently received a definitive diagnosis on the basis of confirmatory echocardiography and were determined to be eligible for the trial. Consent or assent for participation was provided for 916 persons, and all underwent randomization; 818 participants were included in the modified intention-to-treat analysis, and 799 (97.7%) completed the trial. A total of 3 participants (0.8%) in the prophylaxis group had echocardiographic progression at 2 years, as compared with 33 (8.2%) in the control group (risk difference, -7.5 percentage points; 95% confidence interval, -10.2 to -4.7; P<0.001). Two participants in the prophylaxis group had serious adverse events that were attributable to receipt of prophylaxis, including one episode of a mild anaphylactic reaction (representing <0.1% of all administered doses of prophylaxis).Conclusions: Among children and adolescents 5 to 17 years of age with latent rheumatic heart disease, secondary antibiotic prophylaxis reduced the risk of disease progression at 2 years. Further research is needed before the implementation of population-level screening can be recommended. (Funded by the Thrasher Research Fund and others; GOAL ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT03346525.). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Screening echocardiography has emerged as a potentially powerful tool for early diagnosis of rheumatic heart disease (RHD). The utility of screening echocardiography hinges on the rate of RHD progression and the ability of penicillin prophylaxis to improve outcome. We report the longitudinal outcomes of a cohort of children with latent RHD and identify risk factors for unfavorable outcomes.Methods: This was a prospective natural history study conducted under the Ugandan RHD registry. Children with latent RHD and ≥1 year of follow-up were included. All echocardiograms were re-reviewed by experts (2012 World Heart Federation criteria) for inclusion and evidence of change. Bi- and multivariable logistic regression, Kaplan-Meier analysis, and Cox proportional hazards models, as well, were developed to search for risk factors for unfavorable outcome and compare progression-free survival between those treated and not treated with penicillin. Propensity and other matching methods with sensitivity analysis were implemented for the evaluation of the penicillin effect.Results: Blinded review confirmed 227 cases of latent RHD: 164 borderline and 63 definite (42 mild, 21 moderate/severe). Median age at diagnosis was 12 years and median follow-up was 2.3 years (interquartile range, 2.0-2.9). Penicillin prophylaxis was prescribed in 49.3% with overall adherence of 84.7%. Of children with moderate-to-severe definite RHD, 47.6% had echocardiographic progression (including 2 deaths), and 9.5% had echocardiographic regression. Children with mild definite and borderline RHD showed 26% and 9.8% echocardiographic progression and 45.2% and 46.3% echocardiographic improvement, respectively. Of those with mild definite RHD or borderline RHD, more advanced disease category, younger age, and morphological mitral valve features were risk factors for an unfavorable outcome.Conclusions: Latent RHD is a heterogeneous diagnosis with variable disease outcomes. Children with moderate to severe latent RHD have poor outcomes. Children with both borderline and mild definite RHD are at substantial risk of progression. Although long-term outcome remains unclear, the initial change in latent RHD may be evident during the first 1 to 2 years following diagnosis. Natural history data are inherently limited, and a randomized clinical trial is needed to definitively determine the impact of penicillin prophylaxis on the trajectory of latent RHD. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BACKGROUND: Screening echocardiography has emerged as a potentially powerful tool for early diagnosis of rheumatic heart disease (RHD). The utility of screening echocardiography hinges on the rate of RHD progression and the ability of penicillin prophylaxis to improve outcome. We report the longitudinal outcomes of a cohort of children with latent RHD and identify risk factors for unfavorable outcomes. METHODS: This was a prospective natural history study conducted under the Ugandan RHD registry. Children with latent RHD and =1 year of follow-up were included. All echocardiograms were re-reviewed by experts (2012 World Heart Federation criteria) for inclusion and evidence of change. Bi- and multivariable logistic regression, Kaplan-Meier analysis, and Cox proportional hazards models, as well, were developed to search for risk factors for unfavorable outcome and compare progression-free survival between those treated and not treated with penicillin. Propensity and other matching methods with sensitivity analysis were implemented for the evaluation of the penicillin effect. RESULTS: Blinded review confirmed 227 cases of latent RHD: 164 borderline and 63 definite (42 mild, 21 moderate/severe). Median age at diagnosis was 12 years and median follow-up was 2.3 years (interquartile range, 2.0-2.9). Penicillin prophylaxis was prescribed in 49.3% with overall adherence of 84.7%. Of children with moderate-to-severe definite RHD, 47.6% had echocardiographic progression (including 2 deaths), and 9.5% had echocardiographic regression. Children with mild definite and borderline RHD showed 26% and 9.8% echocardiographic progression and 45.2% and 46.3% echocardiographic improvement, respectively. Of those with mild definite RHD or borderline RHD, more advanced disease category, younger age, and morphological mitral valve features were risk factors for an unfavorable outcome. CONCLUSIONS: Latent RHD is a heterogeneous diagnosis with variable disease outcomes. Children with moderate to severe latent RHD have poor outcomes. Children with both borderline and mild definite RHD are at substantial risk of progression. Although long-term outcome remains unclear, the initial change in latent RHD may be evident during the first 1 to 2 years following diagnosis. Natural history data are inherently limited, and a randomized clinical trial is needed to definitively determine the impact of penicillin prophylaxis on the trajectory of latent RHD. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]