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Methane (CH4) is an important greenhouse gas and plays a significant role in tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry. Despite the relevance of methane (CH4) in human-induced climate change and air pollution chemistry, there is no scientific consensus on the causes of changes in its growth rates and variability over the past three decades. We use a well-validated chemistry-transport model for simulating CH4 concentration and estimation of regional CH4 emissions by inverse modeling during 1988-2016. The control simulations are conducted using seasonally varying hydroxyl (OH) concentrations and assumed no interannual variability. Using inverse modeling of atmospheric observations, emission inventories, a wetland model, and a δ 13C-CH4 box model, we show that reductions in emissions from Europe and Russia since 1988, particularly from oil-gas exploitation and enteric fermentation, led to decreased CH4 growth rates in the 1990s. This period was followed by a quasi-stationary state of CH4 in the atmosphere during the early 2000s. CH4 resumed growth from 2007, which we attribute to increases in emissions from coal mining mainly in China and the intensification of ruminant farming in tropical regions. A sensitivity simulation using interannually varying OH shows that regional emission estimates by inversion are unaffected for the mid- and high latitude areas. We show that meridional shift in CH4 emissions toward the lower latitudes and the increase in CH4 loss by hydroxyl (OH) over the tropics finely balance out, keeping the CH4 gradients between the southern hemispheric tropical and polar sites relatively unchanged during 1988-2016. The latitudinal emissions shift is confirmed using the global distributions of the total column CH4 observations via satellite remote sensing. During our analysis period, there is no evidence of emission enhancement due to climate warming, including the boreal regions. These findings highlight key sectors for effective emission reduction strategies toward climate change mitigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Methane (CH4) plays important roles in atmospheric chemistry and short-term forcing of climate. A clear understanding of atmospheric CHCH4's budget of emissions and losses is required to aid sustainable management of Earth's future environment. We used an atmospheric chemistry-transport model (JAMSTEC's ACTM) for simulating atmospheric CHCH4. A global inverse modeling system has been developed for estimating CHCH4 emissions from 53 land regions for 2002-2012 using measurements at 39 sites. An ensemble of 7 inversions is performed by varying a priori emissions. Global net CHCH4 emissions varied between 505-509 and 524-545 Tg yr-1 during 2002-2006 and 2008-2012, respectively (ranges based on 7 inversion cases), with a step like increase in 2007 in agreement with atmospheric measurements. The inversion system did not account for interannual variations in OH radicals reacting with CHCH4 in the atmosphere. Our results suggest that the recent update of the EDGAR inventory (version 4.2FT2010) overestimated the global total emissions by at least 25 Tg yr-1 in 2010. The increase in CHCH4 emission since 2004 originated in the tropical and southern hemisphere regions, coinciding with an increase in non-dairy cattle stocks by ~10 % from 2002 (with 1056 million heads) to 2012, leading to ~10 Tg yr-1 increase in emissions from enteric fermentation. All 7 ensemble cases robustly estimated the interannual variations in emissions, but poorly constrained the seasonal cycle amplitude or phase consistently for all regions due to the sparse observational network. Forward simulation results using both a priori and a posteriori emissions are compared with independent aircraft measurements for validation. Based on the results of the comparison, we reject the upper limit (545 Tg yr-1) of global total emissions as 14 Tg yr-1 too high during 2008-2012, which allows us to further conclude that the increase in CH4 emissions over the East Asia (mainly China) region was 7-8 Tg yrv-1 between the 2002-006 and 2008-2012 periods, contrary to 1-17 Tg yr-1 in the a priori emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]