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Accurately forecasting wind and solar power output poses challenges for deeply decarbonized electricity systems. Grid operators must commit resources to provide reserves to ensure reliable operations in the face of forecast errors, a process which can increase fuel consumption and emissions. We apply neural network-based machine learning to expand the usefulness of median point forecast data by creating probabilistic distributions of short-term uncertainty in demand, wind, and solar forecasts that adapt to prevailing grid conditions. Machine learning derived estimates of forecast errors compare favorably to estimates based on incumbent methods. Reserves derived from machine learning are usually smaller than values derived using incumbent methods, which enables fuel savings during most hours. Machine learning reserves are generally larger than incumbent reserves during times of higher forecast error, potentially improving system reliability. Performance is tested using multistage production simulation modeling of the California Independent System Operator system. Machine learning reserves provide production cost and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions of approximately 0.3% relative to historical 2019 requirements. Savings in the 2030 timeframe are highly dependent on battery storage capacity. At lower levels of battery capacity, savings of 0.4% from machine learning reserves are shown. Significant quantities of battery storage are expected to be added to meet California's resource adequacy needs and GHG reduction targets. The addition of these batteries saturates reserve needs and results in minimal within-hour balancing costs in 2030. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Photovoltaics (PV), the primary use of solar energy, is growing rapidly. However, the variable output of PV under changing weather conditions may hinder the large-scale deployment of PV. In this study, we propose a two-stage classification-prediction framework to predict contemporaneous PV power output from sky images (a so-called "nowcast"), and compare it with an end-to-end convolution neural network (CNN). The proposed framework first classifies input images into different sky conditions and then the classified images are sent to specific sub-models for PV output prediction. Two types of classifiers are developed and compared: (1) a CNN-based classifier trained on clear sky index (CSI)-labeled sky images and (2) a physics-based non-parametric classifier based on a threshold of fractional cloudiness of sky images. Different numbers of classification categories are also examined. The results suggest that the cloudiness-based classifier is more suitable than the CSI-based classifier for the framework, and the 3-class classification (i.e., sunny, cloudy, overcast) is found to be the optimal choice. We then fine-tune the cloudiness threshold for the non-parametric classifier and tailor the architecture for each sky-condition-specific sub-model. Under the best design, the proposed framework can achieve a root mean squared error (RMSE) of 2.20 kW (relative to a 30 kW rated PV array) on the test set comprising 18 complete days (9 sunny, RMSE = 0.69 kW; 9 cloudy, RMSE = 3.06 kW). Compared with the end-to-end CNN baseline model, the overall prediction performance can be improved by 6% (7% in sunny and 6% in cloudy), with 6% fewer trainable parameters needed in the architecture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cloud movement makes short-term forecasting of solar photovoltaic (PV) panel output challenging. A better PV forecast can realize value for both grid operators and commercial or industrial customers with solar assets. In this study, we build convolutional neural network (CNN) based models to forecast power output from PV panels 15 min into the future. Model inputs are the PV power output history and ground-based sky images for the past 15 min. The key challenge is ensuring that due importance is given to each type of input. We systematically explore 28 methods of "fusing" these heterogeneous inputs in our CNN. These methods of fusion (MoF) belong to 4 families. We also systematically explore the many hyperparameters related to model training and tuning. Limited resources preclude an exhaustive search. We apply a three-stage "funnel" approach instead, wherein we narrow our search to the most promising one of these 28 MoF. We find that a two-step autoregression-CNN MoF has the best performance followed closely by a "mix-in" MoF that performs feature expansion and reduction to give appropriate importance to the two types of inputs. The two-step autoregression-CNN model has a forecast skill (FS) of 17.1% relative to smart persistence on the test set comprising 20 complete days (9 sunny, FS = 22%; 11 cloudy, FS = 16.9%). This optimization results in the improvement of FS from 14.1% for a previously published nonoptimized "baseline" model, a CNN wherein the PV history was simply concatenated to the end of the image-sourced vector obtained after convolution, pooling, and flattening operations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Convolutional neural network is shown suitable for short term solar forecasting. • The model features hybrid input, temporal history and strong regularization. • Deep learning model outperforms the persistence model by 15.7–16.3%. • Both sky image sequence and PV output history are crucial for model accuracy. • Input and output configurations are explored and suggestions are provided. The volatility of cloud movement introduces significant uncertainty in short-term solar power forecasting, which can complicate the operation of modern power systems. This work proposes a specialized convolutional neural network (CNN) "SUNSET" to predict 15-min ahead minutely-averaged PV output. The model is characterized by its usage of hybrid input, temporal history and strong regularization. On a 1-year database, the "baseline" model achieves 16.3% forecast skill in cloudy conditions and 15.7% in all weather conditions, relative to a smart persistence forecast. Optimal input and output configurations are explored and suggestions are given. In terms of input, both sky images and PV output history are found to be crucial. Output-wise, training against PV output significantly outperforms using clear sky index (CSI). Careful down-sampling can reduce the training time by as much as 83% without affecting accuracy. For lag term configurations, using the same length of history as the forecast horizon is a good heuristic, while using slightly shorter history yielded a modest 0.5–0.9% improvement in this case. To ensure reproducibility and facilitate future works, the code base of this work is available at Github/YuchiSun/SUNSET. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Studies of the energy return on investment (EROI) for oil production generally rely on aggregated statistics for large regions or countries. In order to better understand the drivers of the energy productivity of oil production, we use a novel approach that applies a detailed field-level engineering model of oil and gas production to estimate energy requirements of drilling, producing, processing, and transporting crude oil. We examine 40 global oilfields, utilizing detailed data for each field from hundreds of technical and scientific data sources. Resulting net energy return (NER) ratios for studied oil fields range from ≈2 to ≈100 MJ crude oil produced per MJ of total fuels consumed. External energy return (EER) ratios, which compare energy produced to energy consumed from external sources, exceed 1000:1 for fields that are largely self-sufficient. The lowest energy returns are found to come from thermally-enhanced oil recovery technologies. Results are generally insensitive to reasonable ranges of assumptions explored in sensitivity analysis. Fields with very large associated gas production are sensitive to assumptions about surface fluids processing due to the shifts in energy consumed under different gas treatment configurations. This model does not currently include energy invested in building oilfield capital equipment (e.g., drilling rigs), nor does it include other indirect energy uses such as labor or services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent efforts to model crude oil production GHG emissions are challenged by a lack of data. Missing data can affect the accuracy of oil field carbon intensity (CI) estimates as well as the production-weighted CI of groups (“baskets”) of crude oils. Here we use the OPGEE model to study the effect of incomplete information on the CI of crude baskets. We create two different 20 oil field baskets, one of which has typical emissions and one of which has elevated emissions. Dispersion of CI estimates is greatly reduced in baskets compared to single crudes (coefficient of variation = 0.2 for a typical basket when 50% of data is learned at random), and field-level inaccuracy (bias) is removed through compensating errors (bias of ∼5% in above case). If a basket has underlying characteristics significantly different than OPGEE defaults, systematic bias is introduced through use of defaults in place of missing data. Optimal data gathering strategies were found to focus on the largest 50% of fields, and on certain important parameters for each field. Users can avoid bias (reduced to <1 gCO2/MJ in our elevated emissions basket) through strategies that only require gathering ∼10-20% of input data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Large-scale integration of photovoltaics (PV) into electricity grids is challenged by the intermittent nature of solar power. Sky-image-based solar forecasting using deep learning has been recognized as a promising approach to predicting the short-term fluctuations. However, there are few publicly available standardized benchmark datasets for image-based solar forecasting, which limits the comparison of different forecasting models and the exploration of forecasting methods. To fill these gaps, we introduce SKIPP'D—a SKy Images and Photovoltaic Power Generation Dataset. The dataset contains three years (2017–2019) of quality-controlled down-sampled sky images and PV power generation data that is ready-to-use for short-term solar forecasting using deep learning. In addition, to support the flexibility in research, we provide the high resolution, high frequency sky images and PV power generation data as well as the concurrent sky video footage. We also include a code base containing data processing scripts and baseline model implementations for researchers to reproduce our previous work and accelerate their research in solar forecasting. • A curated sky image and PV generation dataset is released for short-term solar forecasting. • Processed benchmark data and raw data are both provided for flexibility of research. • Reference codes for data processing and baseline model implementations are provided. • Baseline deep learning models are developed to demonstrate the uses of the dataset. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hydrogen peroxide combined with acid treatment demonstrates its respective characteristics for the separation of lignocellulosic biomass. Herein, holocellulose was extracted from Cattail leaves (CL) by a two-step treatment with alkali and hydrogen peroxide-acetic acid (HPAA). Then carboxylated nanocellulose was hydrolyzed with a mixed organic/inorganic acid. The chemical composition of the holocellulose and the physicochemical properties of the separated carboxylated nanocellulose were comparable. Carboxyl groups were introduced on the nanocellulose as a result of the esterification process with citric acid (CA), which endows the nanocellulose with high thermal stability (315–318 °C) and good light transmission (>80 %). Furthermore, morphological analyses revealed that nanocellulose had a spider-web-like structure with diameter between 5 and 20 nm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hydrogen peroxide combined with acid treatment demonstrates its respective characteristics for the separation of lignocellulosic biomass. Herein, holocellulose was extracted from Cattail leaves (CL) by a two-step treatment with alkali and hydrogen peroxide-acetic acid (HPAA). Then carboxylated nanocellulose was hydrolyzed with a mixed organic/inorganic acid. The chemical composition of the holocellulose and the physicochemical properties of the separated carboxylated nanocellulose were comparable. Carboxyl groups were introduced on the nanocellulose as a result of the esterification process with citric acid (CA), which endows the nanocellulose with high thermal stability (315–318 °C) and good light transmission (>80 %). Furthermore, morphological analyses revealed that nanocellulose had a spider-web-like structure with diameter between 5 and 20 nm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]