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Soil-salinization affects, to a different extent, more than onethird of terrestrial river basins (estimate based on the Food and Agriculture Organization Harmonized World Soil Database, 2012). Among these, many are endorheic and ephemeral systems already encompassing different degrees of aridity, land degradation, and vulnerability to climate change. The primary effect of salinization is to limit plant water uptake and evapotranspiration, thereby reducing available soil moisture and impairing soil fertility. In this, salinization resembles aridity and— similarly to aridity—may impose significant controls on hydrological partitioning and the strength of land–vegetation–atmosphere interactions at the catchment scale. However, the long-term impacts of salinization on the terrestrial water balance are still largely unquantified. Here, we introduce a modified Budyko's framework explicitly accounting for catchment-scale salinization and species-specific plant salt tolerance. The proposed framework is used to interpret the water-budget data of 237 Australian catchments—29% of which are already severely saltaffected— from the Australian Water Availability Project (AWAP). Our results provide theoretical and experimental evidence that salinization does influence the hydrological partitioning of saltaffected watersheds, imposing significant constraints on water availability and enhancing aridity. The same approach can be applied to estimate salinization level and vegetation salt tolerance at the basin scale, which would be difficult to assess through classical observational techniques. We also demonstrate that plant salt tolerance has a preeminent role in regulating the feedback of vegetation on the soil water budget of saltaffected basins. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Complex systems are characterized by emergent patterns created by the nontrivial interplay between dynamical processes and the networks of interactions on which these processes unfold. Topological or dynamical descriptors alone are not enough to fully embrace this interplay in all its complexity, and many times one has to resort to dynamics-specific approaches that limit a comprehension of general principles. To address this challenge, we employ a metric--that we name Jacobian distance--which captures the spatiotemporal spreading of perturbations, enabling us to uncover the latent geometry inherent in network-driven processes. We compute the Jacobian distance for a broad set of nonlinear dynamical models on synthetic and real-world networks of high interest for applications from biological to ecological and social contexts. We show, analytically and computationally, that the process-driven latent geometry of a complex network is sensitive to both the specific features of the dynamics and the topological properties of the network. This translates into potential mismatches between the functional and the topological mesoscale organization, which we explain by means of the spectrum of the Jacobian matrix. Finally, we demonstrate that the Jacobian distance offers a clear advantage with respect to traditional methods when studying human brain networks. In particular, we show that it outperforms classical network communication models in explaining functional communities from structural data, therefore highlighting its potential in linking structure and function in the brain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In our recent article [1] published in this journal we provide quantitative evidence to show that there are warnings and caveats in the way Gu and collaborators [2] define controllability of brain networks and measure the contribution of each of its nodes. The comment by Pasqualetti et al. [3] confirms the need to go beyond the methodology and approach presented in Gu et al.'s original work. In fact, they recognize that "the source of confusion is due to the fact that assessing controllability via numerical analysis typically leads to ill-conditioned problems, and thus often generates results that are difficult to interpret". This is indeed the first warning we discussed in [1]: our work was not meant to prove that brain networks are not controllable from one node, rather we wished to highlight that the one node controllability framework and all consequent results were not properly justified based on the methodology presented in Gu et al. [2]. We used in our work the same method of Gu et al. not because we believe it is the best methodology, but because we extensively investigated it with the aim of replicating, testing, and extending their results. The warning and caveats we have proposed are the results of this investigation. Indeed, on the basis of our controllability analyses of multiple human brain networks datasets, we concluded: " The λ min (W K) are statistically compatible with zero and thus the associated controllability Gramian cannot be inverted 1 . These results show that it is not possible to infer one node controllability of the brain numerically ". Hence both groups agree that one node controllability cannot be inferred numerically. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The quantification of tropical tree biodiversity worldwide remains an open and challenging problem. More than two-fifths of the number of worldwide trees can be found either in tropical or in subtropical forests, but only ≈0.000067% of species identities are known. We introduce an analytical framework that provides robust and accurate estimates of species richness and abundances in biodiversity-rich ecosystems, as confirmed by tests performed on both in silico-generated and real forests. Our analysis shows that the approach outperforms other methods. In particular, we find that upscaling methods based on the log-series species distribution systematically overestimate the number of species and abundances of the rare species. We finally apply our new framework on 15 empirical tropical forest plots and quantify the minimum percentage cover that should be sampled to achieve a given average confidence interval in the upscaled estimate of biodiversity. Our theoretical framework confirms that the forests studied are comprised of a large number of rare or hyper-rare species. This is a signature of critical-like behavior of species-rich ecosystems and can provide a buffer against extinction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Environmental fluctuations have important consequences in the organization of ecological communities, and understanding how such a variability influences the biodiversity of an ecosystem is a major question in ecology. In this paper, we analyze the case of two species competing for the resources within the framework of the neutral theory in the presence of environmental noise, devoting special attention on how such a variability modulates species fitness. The environment is dichotomous and stochastically alternates between periods favoring one of the species while disfavoring the other one, preserving neutrality on the long term. We study two different scenarios: in the first one species fitness varies linearly with the environment, and in the second one the effective fitness is re-scaled by the total fitness of the individuals competing for the same resource. We find that, in the former case environmental fluctuations always reduce the time of species coexistence, whereas such a time can be enhanced or reduced in the latter case, depending on the correlation time of the environment. This phenomenon can be understood as a direct consequence of Chesson's storage effect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Neutral dynamics, where taxa are assumed to be demographically equivalent and their abundance is governed solely by the stochasticity of the underlying birth-death process, has proved itself as an important minimal model that accounts for many empirical datasets in genetics and ecology. However, the restriction of the model to demographic [0(N)] noise yields relatively slow dynamics that appears to be in conflict with both short-term and long-term characteristics of the observed systems. Here we analyze two of these problems-age-size relationships and species extinction time-in the framework of a neutral theory with both demographic and environmental stochasticity. It turns out that environmentally induced variations of the demographic rates control the long-term dynamics and modify dramatically the predictions of the neutral theory with demographic noise only, yielding much better agreement with empirical data. We consider two prototypes of "zero mean" environmental noise, one which is balanced with regard to the arithmetic abundance, another balanced in the logarithmic (fitness) space, study their species lifetime statistics, and discuss their relevance to realistic models of community dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The escalating food demand by a growing and increasingly affluent global population is placing unprecedented pressure on the limited land and water resources of the planet, underpinning concerns over global food security and its sensitivity to shocks arising from environmental fluctuations, trade policies, and market volatility. Here, we use country-specific demographic records along with food production and trade data for the past 25 y to evaluate the stability and reactivity of the relationship between population dynamics and food availability. We develop a framework for the assessment of the resilience and the reactivity of the coupled population-food system and suggest that over the past two decades both its sensitivity to external perturbations and susceptibility to instability have increased. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A number of social-ecological systems exhibit complex behaviour associated with nonlinearities, bifurcations, and interaction with stochastic drivers. These systems are often prone to abrupt and unexpected instabilities and state shifts that emerge as a discontinuous response to gradual changes in environmental drivers. Predicting such behaviours is crucial to the prevention of or preparation for unwanted regime shifts. Recent research in ecology has investigated early warning signs that anticipate the divergence of univariate ecosystem dynamics from a stable attractor. To date, leading indicators of instability in systems with multiple interacting components have remained poorly investigated. This is a major limitation in the understanding of the dynamics of complex social-ecological networks. Here, we develop a theoretical framework to demonstrate that rising variance—measured, for example, by the maximum element of the covariance matrix of the network—is an effective leading indicator of network instability. We show that its reliability and robustness depend more on the sign of the interactions within the network than the network structure or noise intensity. Mutualistic, scale free and small world networks are less stable than their antagonistic or random counterparts but their instability is more reliably predicted by this leading indicator. These results provide new advances in multidimensional early warning analysis and offer a framework to evaluate the resilience of social-ecological networks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the last years, a remarkable theoretical effort has been made in order to understand the relation between stability and complexity in ecological communities. Yet, what maintains species diversity in real ecological communities is still an open question. The non-random structures of ecological interaction networks have been recognized as one key ingredient impacting the maximum number of coexisting species within the ecological community. However most of the earlier theoretical studies have considered communities with only one interaction type (either antagonistic, competitive or mutualistic). Recently, it has been proposed that multiple interaction types might stabilize ecosystems and that, in this hybrid case, increasing complexity increases stability. Here we show that these results depend on ad hoc hypothesis that the authors used in their model and we highlight the need to disentangle the role of multiple interaction types and constant interaction effort allocation on community stability. Indeed, we find that mixing of mutualistic and predator-prey interaction types does not stabilize the community dynamics and we demonstrate that a positive correlation between complexity and stability is observed only if a constant effort allocation is imposed in the ecological interactions. Synthesis In recent years a sparkling research has been devoted to the search of new theoretical mechanisms to explain way ecosystems may persist despite their complexity. Here we show that, contrary to what recently suggested (Mougi et al. 2012), the mismatch between theoretical results and empirical evidences on the stability of ecological community is still there also for communities with both mutualistic and antagonistic interactions, and the 'complexity-stability' paradox is still alive. Indeed, we demonstrate that their results arise as an artifact of the peculiar rescaling of the interaction strengths they imposed. Our study suggests that further theoretical studies and experimental evidences are still needed to better understand the role of interaction strengths in real ecological communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mutualistic networks are formed when the interactions between two classes of species are mutually beneficial. They are important examples of cooperation shaped by evolution. Mutualism between animals and plants has a key role in the organization of ecological communities. Such networks in ecology have generally evolved a nested architecture independent of species composition and latitude; specialist species, with only few mutualistic links, tend to interact with a proper subset of the many mutualistic partners of any of the generalist species. Despite sustained efforts to explain observed network structure on the basis of community-level stability or persistence, such correlative studies have reached minimal consensus. Here we show that nested interaction networks could emerge as a consequence of an optimization principle aimed at maximizing the species abundance in mutualistic communities. Using analytical and numerical approaches, we show that because of the mutualistic interactions, an increase in abundance of a given species results in a corresponding increase in the total number of individuals in the community, and also an increase in the nestedness of the interaction matrix. Indeed, the species abundances and the nestedness of the interaction matrix are correlated by a factor that depends on the strength of the mutualistic interactions. Nestedness and the observed spontaneous emergence of generalist and specialist species occur for several dynamical implementations of the variational principle under stationary conditions. Optimized networks, although remaining stable, tend to be less resilient than their counterparts with randomly assigned interactions. In particular, we show analytically that the abundance of the rarest species is linked directly to the resilience of the community. Our work provides a unifying framework for studying the emergent structural and dynamical properties of ecological mutualistic networks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Population growth is in general constrained by food production, which in turn depends on the access to water resources. At a country level, some populations use more water than they control because of their ability to import food and the virtual water required for its production. Here, we investigate the dependence of demographic growth on available water resources for exporting and importing nations. By quantifying the carrying capacity of nations on the basis of calculations of the virtual water available through the food trade network, we point to the existence of a global water unbalance. We suggest that current export rates will not be maintained and consequently we question the long-term sustainability of the food trade system as a whole. Water-rich regions are likely to soon reduce the amount of virtual water they export, thus leaving import-dependent regions without enough water to sustain their populations. We also investigate the potential impact of possible scenarios that might mitigate these effects through (i) cooperative interactions among nations whereby water-rich countries maintain a tiny fraction of their food production available for export, (ii) changes in consumption patterns, and (iii) a positive feedback between demographic growth and technological innovations. We find that these strategies may indeed reduce the vulnerability of water-controlled societies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Generalized Langevin equations (GLE) with multiplicative white Poisson noise pose the usual prescription dilemma leading to different evolution equations (master equations) for the probability distribution. Contrary to the case of multiplicative Gaussian white noise, the Stratonovich prescription does not correspond to the well-known midpoint (or any other intermediate) prescription. By introducing an inertial term in the GLE, we show that the Itô and Stratonovich prescriptions naturally arise depending on two time scales, one induced by the inertial term and the other determined by the jump event. We also show that, when the multiplicative noise is linear in the random variable, one prescription can be made equivalent to the other by a suitable transformation in the jump probability distribution. We apply these results to a recently proposed stochastic model describing the dynamics of primary soil salinization, in which the salt mass balance within the soil root zone requires the analysis of different prescriptions arising from the resulting stochastic differential equation forced by multiplicative white Poisson noise, the features of which are tailored to the characters of the daily precipitation. A method is finally suggested to infer the most appropriate prescription from the data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Natural ecosystems are characterized by striking diversity of form and functions and yet exhibit deep symmetries emerging across scales of space, time, and organizational complexity. Species-area relationships and species-abundance distributions are examples of emerging patterns irrespective of the details of the underlying ecosystem functions. Here we present empirical and theoretical evidence for a new macroecological pattern related to the distributions of local species persistence times, defined as the time spans between local colonizations and extinctions in a given geographic region. Empirical distributions pertaining to two different taxa, breeding birds and herbaceous plants, analyzed in a framework that accounts for the finiteness of the observational period exhibit power-law scaling limited by a cutoff determined by the rate of emergence of new species. In spite of the differences between taxa and spatial scales of analysis, the scaling exponents are statistically indistinguishable from each other and significantly different from those predicted by existing models. We theoretically investigate how the scaling features depend on the structure of the spatial interaction network and show that the empirical scaling exponents are reproduced once a two-dimensional isotropic texture is used, regardless of the details of the ecological interactions. The framework developed here also allows to link the cutoff time scale with the spatial scale of analysis, and the persistence-time distribution to the species-area relationship. We conclude that the inherent coherence obtained between spatial and temporal macroecological patterns points at a seemingly general feature of the dynamical evolution of ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The common intuition among the ecologists of the midtwentieth century was that large ecosystems should be more stable than those with a smaller number of species. This view was challenged by Robert May, who found a stability bound for randomly assembled ecosystems; they become unstable for a sufficiently large number of species. In the present work, we show that May’s bound greatly changes when the past population densities of a species affect its own current density. This is a common feature in real systems, where the effects of species’ interactions may appear after a time lag rather than instantaneously. The local stability of these models with self-interaction is described by bounds, which we characterize in the parameter space. We find a critical delay curve that separates the region of stability from that of instability, and correspondingly, we identify a critical frequency curve that provides the characteristic frequencies of a system at the instability threshold. Finally, we calculate analytically the distributions of eigenvalues that generalize Wigner’s as well as Girko’s laws. Interestingly, we find that, for sufficiently large delays, the eigenvalues of a randomly coupled system are complex even when the interactions are symmetric. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent advancements in next-generation sequencing have revolutionized our understanding of the human microbiome. Despite this progress, challenges persist in comprehending the microbiome's influence on disease, hindered by technical complexities in species classification, abundance estimation, and data compositionality. At the same time, the existence of macroecological laws describing the variation and diversity in microbial communities irrespective of their environment has been recently proposed using 16s data and explained by a simple phenomenological model of population dynamics. We here investigate the relationship between dysbiosis, i.e. in unhealthy individuals there are deviations from the "regular" composition of the gut microbial community, and the existence of macro-ecological emergent law in microbial communities. We first quantitatively reconstruct these patterns at the species level using shotgun data, and addressing the consequences of sampling effects and statistical errors on ecological patterns. We then ask if such patterns can discriminate between healthy and unhealthy cohorts. Concomitantly, we evaluate the efficacy of different statistical generative models, which incorporate sampling and population dynamics, to describe such patterns and distinguish which are expected by chance, versus those that are potentially informative about disease states or other biological drivers. A critical aspect of our analysis is understanding the relationship between model parameters, which have clear ecological interpretations, and the state of the gut microbiome, thereby enabling the generation of synthetic compositional data that distinctively represent healthy and unhealthy individuals. Our approach, grounded in theoretical ecology and statistical physics, allows for a robust comparison of these models with empirical data, enhancing our understanding of the strengths and limitations of simple microbial models of population dynamics. Author summary: In this study, we explore emerging ecological properties in gut microbiomes. Our aim here is to determine whether these patterns can be informative of the gut microbiome (healthy or diseased) and unveil essential ingredients driving its population dynamics. Leveraging on metagenomic data and interpretable statistical models based on ecological processes, we show that not all ecological patterns are informative to characterize its states, while few are (e.g., species diversity). Eventually, thanks to the ecological interpretability of the inferred models' parameters, our analysis provides insights into the role of environmental fluctuations and carrying capacities of the gut microbiomes in both health and disease. This study offers valuable knowledge, bridging theoretical concepts with practical implications for human health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The effectiveness of several biological and biotechnological processes relies on the remarkably selective pairing of nucleic acids in contexts of molecular complexity. Relevant examples are the on-target binding of primers in genomic PCR and the regulatory efficacy of microRNA via binding on the transcriptome. Here, we propose a statistical framework that enables us to describe and understand such selectivity by means of a model that is extremely cheap from a computational point of view. By re-parametrizing the hybridization thermodynamics on three classes of base pairing errors, we find a convenient way to obtain the free energy of pairwise interactions between nucleic acids. We thus evaluate the hybridization statistics of a given oligonucleotide within a large number of competitive sites that we assume to be random, and we compute the probability of on-target binding. We apply our strategy to PCR amplification and microRNA-based gene regulation, shedding new light on their selectivity. In particular, we show the relevance of the defectless pairing of 3 ′ terminals imposed by the polymerase in PCR selection. We also evaluate the selectivity afforded by the microRNA seed region, thus quantifying the extra contributions given by mechanisms beyond pairing statistics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To measure, predict, and prevent social segregation, it is necessary to understand the factors that cause it. While in most available descriptions space plays an essential role, one outstanding question is whether and how this phenomenon is possible in a well-mixed social network. We define and solve a simple model of segregation on networks based on discrete convictions. In our model, space does not play a role, and individuals never change their conviction, but they may choose to connect socially to other individuals based on two criteria: sharing the same conviction and individual popularity (regardless of conviction). The tradeoff between these two moves defines a parameter, analogous to the "tolerance" parameter in classical models of spatial segregation. We show numerically and analytically that this parameter determines a true phase transition (somewhat reminiscent of phase separation in a binary mixture) between a well-mixed and a segregated state. Additionally, minority convictions segregate faster and inter-specific aversion alone may lead to a segregation threshold with similar properties. Together, our results highlight the general principle that a segregation transition is possible in absence of spatial degrees of freedom, provided that conviction-based rewiring occurs on the same time scale of popularity rewirings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In salt‐affected soils, salt stress causes a drastic reduction of plant transpiration. The extent of this reduction is a function of vegetation salt tolerance and can result in highly species‐specific controls on soil water budget and salinization levels. Despite their crucial role in regulating the hydrology of saline soils, the effects of salt tolerance on transpiration remain mostly unexplored. Here we propose a minimalist stochastic model of primary salinization which reproduces the hitherto overlooked feedback of salinity on the soil water balance and the active role of plant salt tolerance in modulating such an effect. We show that vegetation can exert significant control on leaching occurrence and soil salinization, thus imposing a species‐specific upper limit, Cmax, to the concentration of soluble salts in the soil. Since Cmax increases with plant salt tolerance, salt‐resilient species have the potential to sustain more saline conditions in the soil, eventually creating a favorable environment for their ecological success. Plain Language Summary: In arid regions, thousands of hectares of arable land are lost daily to soil salinization as a result of both natural processes and human‐induced modifications of the local hydrological regime. Salt‐tolerant species (halophytes) have been proposed as an economically viable alternative to traditional salt‐sensitive crops (glycophytes) to reclaim saline soils and even contrast dryland degradation. Under saline conditions, however, halophytes use water more efficiently—and transpire comparatively more—than conventional crops, raising the question of whether their ability to tolerate salinity can have an impact on the long‐term soil water balance and future salinization trends. To better understand the relation between vegetation, salinity, and soil water dynamics, we propose here a simple parameterization of the effects of salt tolerance on evapotranspiration in salt‐affected ecosystems. Using a minimalist stochastic model of natural salinization, we then show that different levels of plant salt tolerance correspond to distinct transpiration, soil moisture, and salinization trajectories. Halophytes, in particular, tend to maintain higher levels of salinity in the soil compared with glycophytes, eventually re‐engineering the habitat in their favor. These results suggest that the long‐term effects of plant salt tolerance on salinization should be carefully considered in planning large‐scale transitions to halophytic agriculture. Key Points: The effects of salinity on evapotranspiration and the soil water budget depend on salt tolerance and can significantly vary across speciesSalt‐tolerant plants are shown to exert major feedback on soil salinization through transpiration and by reducing leaching occurrencePlant salt tolerance is a crucial factor in controlling and limiting dryland salinization across natural ecosystems and rain‐fed farmlands [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Shaping global water and carbon cycles, plants lift water from roots to leaves through xylem conduits. The importance of xylem water conduction makes it crucial to understand how natural selection deploys conduit diameters within and across plants. Wider conduits transport more water but are likely more vulnerable to conductionblocking gas embolisms and cost more for a plant to build, a tension necessarily shaping xylem conduit diameters along plant stems. We build on this expectation to present the Widened Pipe Model (WPM) of plant hydraulic evolution, testing it against a global dataset. The WPM predicts that xylem conduits should be narrowest at the stem tips, widening quickly before plateauing toward the stem base. This universal profile emerges from Pareto modeling of a tradeoff between just two competing vectors of natural selection: one favoring rapid widening of conduits tip to base, minimizing hydraulic resistance, and another favoring slow widening of conduits, minimizing carbon cost and embolism risk. Our data spanning terrestrial plant orders, life forms, habitats, and sizes conform closely to WPM predictions. The WPM highlights carbon economy as a powerful vector of natural selection shaping plant function. It further implies that factors that cause resistance in plant conductive systems, such as conduit pit membrane resistance, should scale in exact harmony with tip-to-base conduit widening. Furthermore, the WPM implies that alterations in the environments of individual plants should lead to changes in plant height, for example, shedding terminal branches and resprouting at lower height under drier climates, thus achieving narrower and potentially more embolism-resistant conduits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The understanding of eco-evolutionary dynamics, and in particular the mechanism of coexistence of species, is still fragmentary and in need of test bench model systems. To this aim we developed a variant of SELEX in vitro selection to study the evolution of a population of ~1015 single-strand DNA oligonucleotide 'individuals'. We begin with a seed of random sequences which we select via affinity capture from ~1012 DNA oligomers of fixed sequence ('resources') over which they compete. At each cycle ('generation'), the ecosystem is replenished via PCR amplification of survivors. Massive parallel sequencing indicates that across generations the variety of sequences ('species') drastically decreases, while some of them become populous and dominate the ecosystem. The simplicity of our approach, in which survival is granted by hybridization, enables a quantitative investigation of fitness through a statistical analysis of binding energies. We find that the strength of individual resource binding dominates the selection in the first generations, while inter- and intra-individual interactions become important in later stages, in parallel with the emergence of prototypical forms of mutualism and parasitism. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Microbes are capable of physiologically adapting to diverse environmental conditions by differentially varying the rates at which they uptake different nutrients. In particular, microbes can switch hierarchically between different energy sources, consuming first those that ensure the highest growth rate. Experimentally, this can result in bi-phasic growth curves called "diauxic shifts" that typically arise when microbes are grown in media containing several nutrients. Despite these observations are well-known in microbiology and molecular biology, the mathematical models generally used to describe the population dynamics of microbial communities do not account for dynamic metabolic adaptation, thus implicitly assuming that microbes cannot switch dynamically from one resource to another. Here, we introduce dynamic metabolic adaptation in the framework of consumer-resource models, which are commonly used to describe competitive microbial communities, allowing each species to temporally change its preferred energy source to maximize its own relative fitness. We show that dynamic metabolic adaptation enables the community to self-organize, allowing several species to coexist even in the presence of few resources, and to respond optimally to a time-dependent environment, thus showing that dynamic metabolic adaptation could be an important mechanism for maintaining high levels of diversity even in environments with few energy sources. We show that introducing dynamic metabolic strategies in consumer-resource models is necessary for reproducing experimental growth curves of the baker's yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae growing in the presence of two carbon sources. Even though diauxic shifts emerge naturally from the model when two resources are qualitatively very different, the model predicts that the existence of such shifts is not a prerequisite for species coexistence in competitive communities. Author summary: Since a celebrated experiment by Monod in 1949, we know that microbes can adapt their metabolic strategies in response to their environment, thus uptaking different nutrients at different rates depending on their relative quality and availability. It is currently unclear whether this physiological plasticity of microbes contributes to maintaining the high degree of diversity found in natural microbial communities, even in the presence of very few resources. By introducing dynamic and optimal metabolic strategies in consumer-resource models, we show that we can correctly reproduce the experimental growth of Saccharomyces cerevisiae on multiple resources and we show that dynamic metabolic strategies allow the community to self-organize and to ensure the coexistence of multiple species competing for few resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Biodiversity provides support for life, vital provisions, regulating services and has positive cultural impacts. It is therefore important to have accurate methods to measure biodiversity, in order to safeguard it when we discover it to be threatened. For practical reasons, biodiversity is usually measured at fine scales whereas diversity issues (e.g. conservation) interest regional or global scales. Moreover, biodiversity may change across spatial scales. It is therefore a key challenge to be able to translate local information on biodiversity into global patterns. Many databases give no information about the abundances of a species within an area, but only its occurrence in each of the surveyed plots. In this paper, we introduce an analytical framework (implemented in a ready‐to‐use R code) to infer species richness and abundances at large spatial scales in biodiversity‐rich ecosystems when species presence/absence information is available on various scattered samples (i.e. upscaling). This framework is based on the scale‐invariance property of the negative binomial. Our approach allows to infer and link within a unique framework important and well‐known biodiversity patterns of ecological theory, such as the species accumulation curve (SAC) and the relative species abundance (RSA) as well as a new emergent pattern, which is the relative species occupancy (RSO). Our estimates are robust and accurate, as confirmed by tests performed on both in silico‐generated and real forests. We demonstrate the accuracy of our predictions using data from two well‐studied forest stands. Moreover, we compared our results with other popular methods proposed in the literature to infer species richness from presence to absence data and we showed that our framework gives better estimates. It has thus important applications to biodiversity research and conservation practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The network control theory framework holds great potential to inform neurostimulation experiments aimed at inducing desired activity states in the brain. However, the current applicability of the framework is limited by inappropriate modeling of brain dynamics, and an overly ambitious focus on whole-brain activity control. In this work, we leverage recent progress in linear modeling of brain dynamics (effective connectivity) and we exploit the concept of target controllability to focus on the control of a single region or a small subnetwork of nodes. We discuss when control may be possible with a reasonably low energy cost and few stimulation loci, and give general predictions on where to stimulate depending on the subset of regions one wishes to control. Importantly, using the robustly asymmetric effective connectome instead of the symmetric structural connectome (as in previous research), we highlight the fundamentally different roles in- and out-hubs have in the control problem, and the relevance of inhibitory connections. The large degree of inter-individual variation in the effective connectome implies that the control problem is best formulated at the individual level, but we discuss to what extent group results may still prove useful. Author summary: Compared to healthy individuals, patients suffering from neurological diseases generally present widely altered brain activity patterns. A promising way to help these people restore a normal brain activity balance is using brain stimulation. As brain areas are interconnected in an intricate web, locally stimulating one or more brain areas can trigger effects across several distant locations, thus evoking a complex response. To achieve a specific response, one should know where (which stimulation sites) to stimulate. Several authors have proposed to solve this puzzle by using a computational model of brain activity together with control theory, a mathematical paradigm to design perturbations with desired effects on a dynamical system. Using an accurate model of brain activity fitted to experimental data from functional magnetic resonance imaging, we show that evoking arbitrary activity patterns in the whole brain requires stimulating a large number of brain areas simultaneously, which is unfeasible with current technology. One can nevertheless focus on a more affordable objective, controlling the activity of a small set of target regions. We discuss how to optimally select stimulation sites (so as to minimize the stimulation intensity) depending on the choice of the target regions, and on the structure of the brain connectivity network. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Continuous and significant progress in sequencing technologies and bioinformatics pipelines has revolutionized our comprehension of microbial communities, especially for human microbiomes. However, most studies have focused on studying the taxonomic composition of the microbiomes and we are still not able to characterize dysbiosis and unveil the underlying ecological consequences. This study explores the emergent organization of functional abundances and correlations of gut microbiomes in health and disease. Leveraging metagenomic sequences, taxonomic and functional tables are constructed, enabling comparative analysis. First, we show that emergent taxonomic and functional patterns are not useful to characterize dysbiosis. Then, through differential abundance analyses applied to functions, we reveal distinct functional compositions in healthy versus unhealthy microbiomes. In addition, we inquire into the functional correlation structure, revealing significant differences between the healthy and unhealthy groups, which may significantly contribute to understanding dysbiosis. Our study demonstrates that scrutinizing the functional organization in the microbiome provides novel insights into the underlying state of the microbiome. The shared data structure underlying the functional and taxonomic compositions allows for a comprehensive macroecological examination. Our findings not only shed light on dysbiosis, but also underscore the importance of studying functional interrelationships for a nuanced understanding of the dynamics of the microbial community. This research proposes a novel approach, bridging the gap between microbial ecology and functional analyses, promising a deeper understanding of the intricate world of the gut microbiota and its implications for human health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Human infants acquire language with notable ease compared to adults, but the neural basis of their remarkable brain plasticity for language remains little understood. Applying a scaling analysis of neural oscillations to address this question, we show that newborns' electrophysiological activity exhibits increased long-range temporal correlations after stimulation with speech, particularly in the prenatally heard language, indicating the early emergence of brain specialization for the native language. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We address a generalization of the concept of metapopulation capacity for trees and networks acting as the template for ecological interactions. The original measure had been derived from an insightful phenomenological model and is based on the leading eigenvalue of a suitable landscape matrix. It yields a versatile predictor of metapopulation persistence through a threshold value of the eigenvalue determined by ecological features of the focal species. Here, we present an analytical solution to a fundamental microscopic model that incorporates key ingredients of metapopulation dynamics and explicitly distinguishes between individuals comprising the "settled population" and "explorers" seeking colonization. Our approach accounts for general network characteristics (in particular graph-driven directional dispersal which is known to significantly constrain many ecological estimates) and yields a generalized version of the original model, to which it reduces for particular cases. Through examples, including real landscapes used as the template, we compare the predictions from our approach with those of the standard model. Results suggest that in several cases of practical interest, differences are significant. We also examine, with both models, how changes in habitat fragmentation, including removal, addition, or alteration in size, affect metapopulation persistence. The current approach demonstrates a high level of flexibility, enabling the incorporation of diverse "microscopic" elements and their impact on the resulting biodiversity landscape pattern. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The easy access to large data sets has allowed for leveraging methodology in network physics and complexity science to disentangle patterns and processes directly from the data, leading to key insights in the behavior of systems. Here we use country specific food production data to study binary and weighted topological properties of the bipartite country-food production matrix. This country-food production matrix can be: 1) transformed into overlap matrices which embed information regarding shared production of products among countries, and or shared countries for individual products, 2) identify subsets of countries which produce similar commodities or subsets of commodities shared by a given country allowing for visualization of correlations in large networks, and 3) used to rank country fitness (the ability to produce a diverse array of products weighted on the type of food commodities) and food specialization (quantified on the number of countries producing a specific food product weighted on their fitness). Our results show that, on average, countries with high fitness produce both low and high specializion food commodities, whereas nations with low fitness tend to produce a small basket of diverse food products, typically comprised of low specializion food commodities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Biogeographical studies have traditionally focused on readily visible organisms, but recent technological advances are enabling analyses of the large-scale distribution of microscopic organisms, whose biogeographical patterns have long been debated. Here we assessed the global structure of plankton geography and its relation to the biological, chemical, and physical context of the ocean (the 'seascape') by analyzing metagenomes of plankton communities sampled across oceans during the Tara Oceans expedition, in light of environmental data and ocean current transport. Using a consistent approach across organismal sizes that provides unprecedented resolution to measure changes in genomic composition between communities, we report a pan-ocean, size-dependent plankton biogeography overlying regional heterogeneity. We found robust evidence for a basin-scale impact of transport by ocean currents on plankton biogeography, and on a characteristic timescale of community dynamics going beyond simple seasonality or life history transitions of plankton. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the conditions of feasibility and stability in ecological systems is a major challenge in theoretical ecology. The seminal work of May in 1972 and recent developments based on the theory of random matrices have shown the existence of emergent universal patterns of both stability and feasibility in ecological dynamics. However, only a few studies have investigated the role of delay coupled with population dynamics in the emergence of feasible and stable states. In this work, we study the effects of delay on generalized Loka–Volterra population dynamics of several interacting species in closed ecological environments. First, we investigate the relation between feasibility and stability of the modelled ecological community in the absence of delay and find a simple analytical relation when intra-species interactions are dominant. We then show how, by increasing the time delay, there is a transition in the stability phases of the population dynamics: from an equilibrium state to a stable non-point attractor phase. We calculate analytically the critical delay of that transition and show that it is in excellent agreement with numerical simulations. Finally, following a similar approach to characterizing stability in empirical studies, we investigate the coefficient of variation, which quantifies the magnitude of population fluctuations. We show that in the oscillatory regime induced by the delay, the variability at community level decreases for increasing diversity. This article is part of the theme issue 'Emergent phenomena in complex physical and socio-technical systems: from cells to societies'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The critical brain hypothesis has emerged as an attractive framework to understand neuronal activity, but it is still widely debated. In this work, we analyze data from a multi-electrodes array in the rat's cortex and we find that power-law neuronal avalanches satisfying the crackling-noise relation coexist with spatial correlations that display typical features of critical systems. In order to shed a light on the underlying mechanisms at the origin of these signatures of criticality, we introduce a paradigmatic framework with a common stochastic modulation and pairwise linear interactions inferred from our data. We show that in such models power-law avalanches that satisfy the crackling-noise relation emerge as a consequence of the extrinsic modulation, whereas scale-free correlations are solely determined by internal interactions. Moreover, this disentangling is fully captured by the mutual information in the system. Finally, we show that analogous power-law avalanches are found in more realistic models of neural activity as well, suggesting that extrinsic modulation might be a broad mechanism for their generation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Empirical evidence suggesting that living systems might operate in the vicinity of critical points, at the borderline between order and disorder, has proliferated in recent years, with examples ranging from spontaneous brain activity to flock dynamics. However, a well-founded theory for understanding how and why interacting living systems could dynamically tune themselves to be poised in the vicinity of a critical point is lacking. Here we use tools from statistical mechanics and information theory to show that complex adaptive or evolutionary systems can be much more efficient in coping with diverse heterogeneous environmental conditions when operating at criticality. Analytical as well as computational evolutionary and adaptive models vividly illustrate that a community of such systems dynamically self-tunes close to a critical state as the complexity of the environment increases while they remain noncritical for simple and predictable environments. A more robust convergence to criticality emerges in coevolutionary and coadaptive setups in which individuals aim to represent other agents in the community with fidelity, thereby creating a collective critical ensemble and providing the best possible tradeoff between accuracy and flexibility. Our approach provides a parsimonious and general mechanism for the emergence of critical-like behavior in living systems needing to cope with complex environments or trying to efficiently coordinate themselves as an ensemble. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding of the pairing statistics in solutions populated by a large number of distinct solute species with mutual interactions is a challenging topic, relevant in modeling the complexity of real biological systems. Here we describe, both experimentally and theoretically, the formation of duplexes in a solution of random-sequence DNA (rsDNA) oligomers of length L = 8, 12, 20 nucleotides. rsDNA solutions are formed by 4L distinct molecular species, leading to a variety of pairing motifs that depend on sequence complementarity and range from strongly bound, fully paired defectless helices to weakly interacting mismatched duplexes. Experiments and theory coherently combine revealing a hybridization statistics characterized by a prevalence of partially defected duplexes, with a distribution of type and number of pairing errors that depends on temperature. We find that despite the enormous multitude of inter-strand interactions, defectless duplexes are formed, involving a fraction up to 15% of the rsDNA chains at the lowest temperatures. Experiments and theory are limited here to equilibrium conditions. Author summary: Several biological processes require that specific partner molecules succeed in binding after negotiating their way through a huge number of interactions with other molecules. How such molecular recognition emerges among millions distinct molecular species is an open problem. We have studied, both experimentally and theoretically, such process of "molecular recognition" in pools of highly diverse random DNA oligomers, which binds preferentially, but not exclusively, to its perfect complementary sequence. We find a complex behavior, in which some perfect pairing takes place with a non-trivial temperature dependence that we understand thorough statistical mechanics modelling. The pairing pattern of short random DNA is relevant in the context of the origin of life since the so-called "RNA World" was most probably based on the mutual recognition of random chains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Molecular ecology uses molecular genetic data to answer traditional ecological questions in biogeography and biodiversity, among others. Several ecological principles, such as the niche hypothesis and the competitive exclusions, are based on the fact that species compete for resources. More in generally, it is now recognized that species interactions play a crucial role in determining the coexistence and abundance of species. However, experimentally controllable platforms, which allow us to study and measure competitions among species, are rare and difficult to implement. In this work, we suggest exploiting a Molecular Dynamics coarse-grained model to study interactions among single strands of DNA, representing individuals of different species, which compete for binding to other oligomers considered as resources. In particular, the well-established knowledge of DNA–DNA interactions at the nanoscale allows us to test the hypothesis that the maximum consecutive overlap between pairs of oligomers measure the species' competitive advantages. However, we suggest that a more complex structure also plays a role in the ability of the species to successfully bind to the target resource oligomer. We complement the simulations with experiments on populations of DNA strands which qualitatively confirm our hypotheses. These tools constitute a promising starting point for further developments concerning the study of controlled, DNA-based, artificial ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Local coexistence of species in large ecosystems is traditionally explained within the broad framework of niche theory. However, its rationale hardly justifies rich biodiversity observed in nearly homogeneous environments. Here we consider a consumer-resource model in which a coarse-graining procedure accounts for a variety of ecological mechanisms and leads to effective spatial effects which favor species coexistence. Herein, we provide conditions for several species to live in an environment with very few resources. In fact, the model displays two different phases depending on whether the number of surviving species is larger or smaller than the number of resources. We obtain conditions whereby a species can successfully colonize a pool of coexisting species. Finally, we analytically compute the distribution of the population sizes of coexisting species. Numerical simulations as well as empirical distributions of population sizes support our analytical findings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Big data require new techniques to handle the information they come with. Here we consider four datasets (email communication, Twitter posts, Wikipedia articles and Gutenberg books) and propose a novel statistical framework to predict global statistics from random samples. More precisely, we infer the number of senders, hashtags and words of the whole dataset and how their abundances (i.e. the popularity of a hashtag) change through scales from a small sample of sent emails per sender, posts per hashtag and word occurrences. Our approach is grounded on statistical ecology as we map inference of human activities into the unseen species problem in biodiversity. Our findings may have applications to resource management in emails, collective attention monitoring in Twitter and language learning process in word databases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the relationship between large-scale structural and functional brain networks remains a crucial issue in modern neuroscience. Recently, there has been growing interest in investigating the role of homeostatic plasticity mechanisms, across different spatiotemporal scales, in regulating network activity and brain functioning against a wide range of environmental conditions and brain states (e.g., during learning, development, ageing, neurological diseases). In the present study, we investigate how the inclusion of homeostatic plasticity in a stochastic whole-brain model, implemented as a normalization of the incoming node’s excitatory input, affects the macroscopic activity during rest and the formation of functional networks. Importantly, we address the structure-function relationship both at the group and individual-based levels. In this work, we show that normalization of the node’s excitatory input improves the correspondence between simulated neural patterns of the model and various brain functional data. Indeed, we find that the best match is achieved when the model control parameter is in its critical value and that normalization minimizes both the variability of the critical points and neuronal activity patterns among subjects. Therefore, our results suggest that the inclusion of homeostatic principles lead to more realistic brain activity consistent with the hallmarks of criticality. Our theoretical framework open new perspectives in personalized brain modeling with potential applications to investigate the deviation from criticality due to structural lesions (e.g. stroke) or brain disorders. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water availability is a major factor constraining humanity's ability to meet the future food and energy needs of a growing and increasingly affluent human population. Water plays an important role in the production of energy, including renewable energy sources and the extraction of unconventional fossil fuels that are expected to become important players in future energy security. The emergent competition for water between the food and energy systems is increasingly recognized in the concept of the "food‐energy‐water nexus." The nexus between food and water is made even more complex by the globalization of agriculture and rapid growth in food trade, which results in a massive virtual transfer of water among regions and plays an important role in the food and water security of some regions. This review explores multiple components of the food‐energy‐water nexus and highlights possible approaches that could be used to meet food and energy security with the limited renewable water resources of the planet. Despite clear tensions inherent in meeting the growing and changing demand for food and energy in the 21st century, the inherent linkages among food, water, and energy systems can offer an opportunity for synergistic strategies aimed at resilient food, water, and energy security, such as the circular economy. Key Points: We investigate the trade‐offs of water use for food or energy production and the nexus among water, food, and energyWe investigate the broader issue of feeding the planet with limited resources while ensuring sustainability, resilience, and equityWe analyze a number of approaches to future food and energy security [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this work we study the likelihood of survival of single-species in the context of hostile and disordered environments. Population dynamics in this environment, as modeled by the Fisher equation, is characterized by negative average growth rate, except in some random spatially distributed patches that may support life. In particular, we are interested in the phase diagram of the survival probability and in the critical size problem, i.e., the minimum patch size required for surviving in the long-time dynamics. We propose a measure for the critical patch size as being proportional to the participation ratio of the eigenvector corresponding to the largest eigenvalue of the linearized Fisher dynamics. We obtain the (extinction-survival) phase diagram and the probability distribution function (PDF) of the critical patch sizes for two topologies, namely, the one-dimensional system and the fractal Peano basin. We show that both topologies share the same qualitative features, but the fractal topology requires higher spatial fluctuations to guarantee species survival. We perform a finite-size scaling and we obtain the associated scaling exponents. In addition, we show that the PDF of the critical patch sizes has an universal shape for the 1D case in terms of the model parameters (diffusion, growth rate, etc.). In contrast, the diffusion coefficient has a drastic effect on the PDF of the critical patch sizes of the fractal Peano basin, and it does not obey the same scaling law of the 1D case. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecology, with a traditional focus on plants and animals, seeks to understand the mechanisms underlying structure and dynamics of communities. In microbial ecology, the focus is changing from planktonic communities to attached biofilms that dominate microbial life in numerous systems. Therefore, interest in the structure and function of biofilms is on the rise. Biofilms can form reproducible physical structures (i.e. architecture) at the millimetre-scale, which are central to their functioning. However, the spatial dynamics of the clusters conferring physical structure to biofilms remains often elusive. By experimenting with complex microbial communities forming biofilms in contrasting hydrodynamic microenvironments in stream mesocosms, we show that morphogenesis results in 'ripple-like' and 'star-like' architectures - as they have also been reported from monospecies bacterial biofilms, for instance. To explore the potential contribution of demographic processes to these architectures, we propose a size-structured population model to simulate the dynamics of biofilm growth and cluster size distribution. Our findings establish that basic physical and demographic processes are key forces that shape apparently universal biofilm architectures as they occur in diverse microbial but also in single-species bacterial biofilms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We develop an eco-evolutionary model combining niche and neutral traits. • Stochasticity induces a coupling between neutral and niche traits. • There is a critical range of mutations rate where species emerge. • Species emerge as clusters in the niche-neutral space. The evolutionary and ecological processes behind the origin of species are among the most fundamental problems in biology. In fact, many theoretical hypothesis on different type of speciation have been proposed. In particular, models of sympatric speciation leading to the formation of new species without geographical isolation, are based on the niche hypothesis: the diversification of the population is induced by the competition for a limited set of available resources. Interestingly, neutral models of evolution have shown that stochastic forces are sufficient to generate coexistence of different species. In this work, we put forward this dichotomy within the context of species formation, studying how neutral and niche forces contribute to sympatric speciation in a model ecosystem. In particular, we study the evolution of a population of individuals with asexual reproduction whose inherited characters or phenotypes are specified by both niche-based and neutral traits. We analyze the stationary state of the dynamics, and study the distribution of individuals in the whole phenotypic space. We show, both numerically and analytically, that there is a non-trivial coupling between neutral and niche forces induced by stochastic effects in the evolution of the population allowing the formation of clusters, that is, species in the phenotypic space. Remarkably, our framework can be generalized also to sexual reproduction or other type of population dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recently, a theoretical framework aimed at separating the roles of dynamics and topology in multidimensional systems has been developed [Gao et al., Nature (London) 530, 307 (2016)]. The validity of their method is assumed to hold depending on two main hypotheses: (i) The network determined by the the interaction between pairs of nodes has negligible degree correlations; (ii) the node activities are uniform across nodes on both the drift and the pairwise interaction functions. Moreover, the authors consider only positive (mutualistic) interactions. Here we show the conditions proposed by Gao and collaborators [Nature (London) 530, 307 (2016)] are neither sufficient nor necessary to guarantee that their method works in general and validity of their results are not independent of the model chosen within the class of dynamics they considered. Indeed we find that a new condition poses effective limitations to their framework and we provide quantitative predictions of the quality of the one-dimensional collapse as a function of the properties of interaction networks and stable dynamics using results from random matrix theory. We also find that multidimensional reduction may work also for an interaction matrix with a mixture of positive and negative signs, opening up an application of the framework to food webs, neuronal networks, and social and economic interactions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]