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The main goal of the present study is to identify the prevailing atmospheric circulation patterns (circulation types) that are associated with the occurrence of precipitation (both mean and extreme) over southern Romania. A daily circulation type calendar derived from an automatic and objective classification scheme is used in synergy with the daily precipitation time series from five weather stations in the study area for a sixty-year period (1961–2020). Both mean and extreme precipitation do not show statistically significant trends, except for the annual precipitation at Constanța, for the value with daily precipitation totals greater than the 95th percentile at Craiova and the number of days exceeding the 99th percentile at Buzău and Râmnicu -Vâlcea, where significant negative trends were noticed. Moreover, the precipitation trends were analyzed in relation to the atmospheric circulation types. Non-significant positive trends were observed for the precipitation amounts (annually, winter, spring, and autumn) corresponding to very rainy circulation types (C, Cwsw), while for summer, the equivalent trends were negative. Moreover, it became evident that during extreme precipitation events, the predominant circulation types (C, Cwsw) are associated with western or almost western atmospheric circulation and Mediterranean- or Atlantic-originated depressions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The accurate prediction of Mediterranean tropical-like cyclones, or medicanes, is an important challenge for numerical weather prediction models due to their significant adverse impact on the environment, life, and property. The aim of this study is to investigate the sensitivity of an intense medicane, which formed south of Sicily on 7 November 2014, to the microphysical, cumulus, and boundary/surface layer schemes. The non-hydrostatic Weather Research and Forecasting model (version 3.7.1) is employed. A symmetric cyclone with a deep warm core, corresponding to a medicane, develops in all of the experiments, except for the one with the Thompson microphysics. There is a significant sensitivity of different aspects of the simulated medicane to the physical parameterizations. Its intensity is mainly influenced by the boundary/surface layer scheme, while its track is mainly influenced by the representation of cumulus convection, and its duration is mainly influenced by microphysical parameterization. The modification of the drag coefficient and the roughness lengths of heat and moisture seems to improve its intensity, track, and duration. The parameterization of shallow convection, with explicitly resolved deep convection, results in a weaker medicane with a shorter lifetime. An optimum combination of physical parameterizations in order to simulate all of the characteristics of the medicane does not seem to exist. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper addresses the effects of estimated climate change on the sea-surface dynamics of the Aegean and Ionian Seas (AIS). The main aim is the identification of climate change impacts on the severity and frequency of extreme storm surges and waves in areas of the AIS prone to flooding. An attempt is made to define design levels for future research on coastal protection in Greece. Extreme value analysis is implemented through a nonstationary generalized extreme value distribution function, incorporating time harmonics in its parameters, by means of statistically defined criteria. A 50-year time span analysis is adopted and changes of means and extremes are determined. A Regional Climate Model (RegCM3) is implemented with dynamical downscaling, forced by ECHAM5 fields under 20C3M historical data for the twentieth century and the SRES-A1B scenario for the twenty-first century. Storm surge and wave models (GreCSSM and SWAN, respectively) are used for marine climate simulations. Comparisons of model results with reanalysis and field data of atmospheric and hydrodynamic characteristics, respectively, are in good agreement. Our findings indicate that the dynamically downscaled RegCM3 simulation adequately reproduces the present general circulation patterns over the Mediterranean and Greece. Future changes in sea level pressure and mean wind fields are estimated to be small, yet significant for marine extremes. In general, we estimate a projected intensification of severe wave and storm surge events during the first half of the twenty-first century and a subsequent storminess attenuation leading to the resettlement of milder extreme marine events with increased prediction uncertainty in the second half of the twenty-first century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this work is to investigate the recent past and future patterns of the Etesian winds, one of the most persistent localized wind systems in the world, which dominates the wind regime during warm period over the Aegean Sea and eastern Mediterranean. An objective classification method, the Two Step Cluster Analysis (TSCA), is applied on daily data from regional climate model simulations carried out with RegCM3 for the recent past (1961-1990) and future periods (2021-2050 and 2071-2100) constrained at lateral boundaries either by ERA-40 reanalysis fields or the global circulation model (GCM) ECHAM5. Three distinct Etesian patterns are identified by TSCA with the location and strength of the anticyclonic action center dominating the differences among the patterns. In case of the first Etesian pattern there is a ridge located over western and central Europe while for the other two Etesian patterns the location of the ridge moves eastward indicating a strong anticyclonic center over the Balkans. The horizontal and vertical spatial structure of geopotential height and the vertical velocity indicates that in all three Etesian patterns the anticyclonic action center over central Europe or Balkan Peninsula cannot be considered as an extension of the Azores high. The future projections for the late 21st century under SRES A1B scenario indicate a strengthening of the Etesian winds associated with the strengthening of the anticyclonic action center, and the deepening of Asian thermal Low over eastern Mediterranean. Furthermore the future projections indicate a weakening of the subsidence over eastern Mediterranean which is rather controlled by the deepening of the south Asian thermal Low in line with the projected in future weakening of South Asian monsoon and Hadley cell circulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]