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Climate vagaries and the lack of irrigation, frequently combined with coarse-textured sandy and unevenly distributed saline soils, explain low crop yields and the endemic relative poverty of the rural population in Northeast Thailand (NET). Local and regional trends in agriculturally-relevant rainfall variables were investigated using the Mann-Kendall test, modified to account for serial correlation, and applied to 17 stations across NET, and the regional average Kendall's statistic. Limited changes in rainfall frequency, intensity and seasonality are observed at individual stations over the study period (1953-2004). But we found a significant regional trend toward a wetter dry season. Based on an intimate knowledge of the local farming systems, we discuss the cropping systems adaptation to these rainfall changes. If the wetting of the dry season extends in the future, as expected according to most climate projections, households would not find it difficult to adapt, except for the problems caused by temperature rise, mainly due to their renowned adaptive capacity and high mobility that historically produced diverse and resilient rural livelihood systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The decentralization of natural resource management provides an opportunity for communities to increase their participation in related decision making. Research should propose adapted methodologies enabling the numerous stakeholders of these complex socioecological settings to define their problems and identify agreed-on solutions. This article presents a companion modeling (ComMod) experiment combining role- playing games and multiagent systems conducted in a community in northern Thailand to support collective learning for adaptive land management. Researchers and local stakeholders collectively built a representation of the situation and used it as a platform to explore scenarios. This ComMod process initially addressed a soil erosion problem. The participants identified the expansion of perennial crops as a promising solution but also raised the problem of the unequal ability among villagers to invest in such crops. The researchers flexibly adapted the simulation tools to the emerging matter The authors assess the learning effects of this experiment and identify two favoring factors: the increasing participation of local stakeholders and a flexible and adaptive modeling process suited to learning, which by nature is an evolving process. But to ensure sustainable impacts for the communities, stronger links with higher institutional levels are needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We used multi-agent systems (MAS), following the companion modeling method, to facilitate water management negotiations in Bhutan. We show how this methodology helped resolve a conflict over the sharing of water resources by establishing a concrete agreement and creating an institution for collective watershed management. The conceptual model begins with a role-playing game (RPG). The stakeholders play the game, thus validating the proposed environment, the behavioral rules, and the emergent properties of the game. It is then relatively easy to translate the RPG into computerized MAS that allow different scenarios to be explored. After this first step in the MAS model, stakeholders then create an institution. A second model is developed to facilitate this process. We conclude by discussing the relationship between the models and reality, as well as the use of MAS as a mediation tool and the social process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The objective of this paper is to question the increasingly common choice to build and use spatially explicit models, especially in the case of participatory agent-based modelling processes. The paper draws on a combination of lessons from literature and the case of a companion modelling process conducted in the context of a conflict about land and forest management in Northern Thailand. Using insights from negotiation theories, we analyze specifically the influence of spatial representations on the way people interacted, discussed and learnt from each other in the participatory modelling process. We argue that models that are spatially too explicit and realistic can actually impede the exploration of innovative and integrative scenarios in which ecological, social and economic objectives are mutually enriching. Indeed, spatial representations might lead to think in terms of boundaries and segregated space, and therefore prevent from thinking in terms of multifunctional space and from finding innovative and integrative solutions. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The sustainable management of renewable resources is often complicated by the diversity and dynamic nature of the ecological and socio-economic systems involved. As the dynamics and interactions of these systems are highly complex and frequently unpredictable, there is a need to opt for transdisciplinary research addressing adaptive and integrated management of renewable resources. Companion modelling (ComMod) is a multi-agent systems (MAS)-based approach relying on synergistic effects between role-playing games (RPG) and agent-based models (ABM) to facilitate collective information sharing and learning, and to improve coordination among stakeholders for negotiation and decision-making. The iterative and adaptive sequences of fieldwork with modelling activities allows the mutual and interactive participation of stakeholders during the design, implementation, calibration and validation steps of the models, as well as exploration of possible scenarios. ComMod was implemented in a study of the conflict between two ethnic communities and a newly proposed national park in Northern Thailand. Deforestation, biodiversity conservation and the livelihoods of the villagers were key issues discussed during RPG sessions with small groups of participants, and subsequently represented in an ABM simulator used with a larger audience. Consequently, the local stakeholders learned about agro-ecological and socio-economic dynamics and gained an increased awareness of these key issues. Mutual understanding was improved, and the importance of collaborative discussion, essential to negotiations and decision-making, became obvious. Finally, this Northern Thailand experience has shown that collaborative interactions mediated by ComMod were supportive of improved communication and joint learning for the adaptive and integrated sustainable management of renewable resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]