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Large solar coronal mass ejections pose a threat in the near-Earth space. As a cause of extreme periods of space weather, they can damage satellite-based communications and create geomagnetically induced currents in power and energy grids. Further, the solar wind energetic particles can reduce the protecting layer of atmospheric ozone and pose a threat to life on Earth. The large coronal mass ejection (CME) of July 2012, although directed away from the Earth, is often highlighted as a prime example of a potentially devastating super storm. Here we show, based on proton fluxes recorded by the instruments aboard the STEREO-A satellite, that the atmospheric response to the July 2012 event would have been comparable to those of the largest solar proton events of the satellite era. Significant impact on total ozone outside polar regions would require a much larger event, similar to those recorded in historical proxy data sets. Such an extreme event would cause long-term ozone reduction all the way to the equator and increase the size, duration, and depth of the Antarctic ozone hole. The impact would be comparable to predicted drastic and sudden ozone reduction from major volcanic eruptions, regional nuclear conflicts, or long-term stratospheric geoengineering. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Large solar coronal mass ejections pose a threat in the near-Earth space. As a cause of extreme periods of space weather, they can damage satellite-based communications and create geomagnetically induced currents in power and energy grids. Further, the solar wind energetic particles can reduce the protecting layer of atmospheric ozone and pose a threat to life on Earth. The large coronal mass ejection (CME) of July 2012, although directed away from the Earth, is often highlighted as a prime example of a potentially devastating super storm. Here we show, based on proton fluxes recorded by the instruments aboard the STEREO-A satellite, that the atmospheric response to the July 2012 event would have been comparable to those of the largest solar proton events of the satellite era. Significant impact on total ozone outside polar regions would require a much larger event, similar to those recorded in historical proxy data sets. Such an extreme event would cause long-term ozone reduction all the way to the equator and increase the size, duration, and depth of the Antarctic ozone hole. The impact would be comparable to predicted drastic and sudden ozone reduction from major volcanic eruptions, regional nuclear conflicts, or long-term stratospheric geoengineering. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent simulation studies have provided evidence that a pulsating aurora (PsA) associated with high-energy electron precipitation is having a clear local impact on ozone chemistry in the polar middle mesosphere. However, it is not clear if the PsA is frequent enough to cause longer-term effects of measurable magnitude. There is also an open question of the relative contribution of PsA-related energetic electron precipitation (PsA EEP) to the total atmospheric forcing by solar energetic particle precipitation (EPP). Here we investigate the PsA-EEP impact on stratospheric and mesospheric odd hydrogen, odd nitrogen, and ozone concentrations. We make use of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model and recent understanding on PsA frequency, latitudinal and magnetic local time extent, and energy-flux spectra. Analysing an 18-month time period covering all seasons, we particularly look at PsA-EEP impacts at two polar observation stations located at opposite hemispheres: Tromsø in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and Halley Research Station in the Southern Hemisphere (SH). We find that PsA EEP can have a measurable impact on ozone concentration above 30 km altitude, with ozone depletion by up to 8 % seen in winter periods due to PsA-EEP-driven NOx enhancement. We also find that direct mesospheric NOx production by high-energy electrons (E> 100 keV) accounts for about half of the PsA-EEP-driven upper stratospheric ozone depletion. A larger PsA-EEP impact is seen in the SH where the background dynamical variability is weaker than in the NH. Clearly indicated from our results, consideration of polar vortex dynamics is required to understand PsA-EEP impacts seen at ground observation stations, especially in the NH. We conclude that PsA-EEP has the potential to make an important contribution to the total EPP forcing; thus, it should be considered in atmospheric and climate simulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the atmospheric forcing from energetic particle precipitation (EPP) is important for climate simulations on decadal time scales. However, presently there are large uncertainties in energy flux measurements of electron precipitation. One approach to narrowing these uncertainties is by analyses of EPP direct atmospheric impacts and their relation to measured EPP fluxes. Here we use observations from the microwave limb sounder (MLS) and Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) simulations, together with EPP fluxes from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) and Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) to determine the OH and HO2 response thresholds to solar proton events (SPEs) and radiation belt electron (RBE) precipitation. Because of their better signal-to-noise ratio and extended altitude range, we utilize MLS HO2 data from an improved offline processing instead of the standard operational product. We consider a range of altitudes in the middle atmosphere and all magnetic latitudes from pole to pole. We find that the nighttime flux limits for day-to-day EPP impact detection using OH and HO2 are 50–130 protonscm-2s-1sr-1 (E>10 MeV) and 1.0– 2.5×104 electronscm-2s-1sr-1 (E = 100–300 keV). Based on the WACCM simulations, nighttime OH and HO2 are good EPP indicators in the polar regions and provide best coverage in altitude and latitude. Due to larger background concentrations, daytime detection requires larger EPP fluxes and is possible in the mesosphere only. SPE detection is easier than RBE detection because a wider range of polar latitudes is affected, i.e., the SPE impact is rather uniform poleward of 60∘ , while the RBE impact is focused at 60∘. Altitude-wise, the SPE and RBE detection are possible at ≈ 35–80 and ≈ 65–75 km , respectively. We also find that the MLS OH observations indicate a clear nighttime response to SPE and RBE in the mesosphere, similar to the simulations. However, the MLS OH data are too noisy for response detection in the stratosphere below 50 km , and the HO2 measurements are overall too noisy for confident EPP detection on a day-to-day basis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The radiation belts are regions in the near-Earth space where solar wind electrons are captured by the Earth's magnetic field. A portion of these electrons is continuously lost into the atmosphere where they cause ionization and chemical changes. Driven by the solar activity, the electron forcing leads to ozone variability in the polar stratosphere and mesosphere. Understanding the possible dynamical connections to regional climate is an ongoing research activity which supports the assessment of greenhouse-gas-driven climate change by a better definition of the solar-driven variability. In the context of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), energetic electron and proton precipitation is included in the solar-forcing recommendation for the first time. For the radiation belt electrons, the CMIP6 forcing is from a daily zonal-mean proxy model. This zonal-mean model ignores the well-known dependency of precipitation on magnetic local time (MLT), i.e. its diurnal variability. Here we use the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model with its lower-ionospheric-chemistry extension (WACCM-D) to study effects of the MLT dependency of electron forcing on the polar-ozone response. We analyse simulations applying MLT-dependent and MLT-independent forcings and contrast the resulting ozone responses in monthly-mean data as well as in monthly means at individual local times. We consider two cases: (1) the year 2003 and (2) an extreme, continuous forcing. Our results indicate that the ozone responses to the MLT-dependent and the MLT-independent forcings are very similar, and the differences found are small compared to those caused by the overall uncertainties related to the representation of electron forcing in climate simulations. We conclude that the use of daily zonal-mean electron forcing will provide an accurate ozone response in long-term climate simulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Energetic particle precipitation couples the solar wind to the Earth''s atmosphere and indirectly to Earth''s climate. Ionisation and dissociation increases, due to particle precipitation, create odd nitrogen (NO x ) and odd hydrogen (HO X ) in the upper atmosphere, which can affect ozone chemistry. The long-lived NO x can be transported downwards into the stratosphere, particularly during the polar winter. Thus, the impact of NO x is determined by both the initial ionisation production, which is a function of the particle flux and energy spectrum, as well as transport rates. In this paper, we use the Sodankylä Ion and Neurtal Chemistry (SIC) model to simulate the production of NO x from examples of the most representative particle flux and energy spectra available today of solar proton events (SPE), auroral energy electrons, and relativistic electron precipitation (REP). Large SPEs are found to produce higher initial NO x concentrations than long-lived REP events, which themselves produce higher initial NO x levels than auroral electron precipitation. Only REP microburst events were found to be insignificant in terms of generating NO x . We show that the Global Ozone Monitoring by Occultation of Stars (GOMOS) observations from the Arctic winter 2003–2004 are consistent with NO x generation by a combination of SPE, auroral altitude precipitation, and long-lived REP events. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Ground-based observations of 11.072 GHz atmospheric ozone (O3) emission have been made using the Ny-Ålesund Ozone in the Mesosphere Instrument (NAOMI) at the UK Arctic Research Station (latitude 78 ∘ 55 ′ 0 ′′ N, longitude 11 ∘ 55 ′ 59 ′′ E), Spitsbergen. Seasonally averaged O3 vertical profiles in the Arctic polar mesosphere–lower thermosphere region for night-time and twilight conditions in the period 15 August 2017 to 15 March 2020 have been retrieved over the altitude range 62–98 km. NAOMI measurements are compared with corresponding, overlapping observations by the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) satellite instrument. The NAOMI and SABER version 2.0 data are binned according to the SABER instrument 60 d yaw cycles into nominal 3-month "winter" (15 December–15 March), "autumn" (15 August–15 November), and "summer" (15 April–15 July) periods. The NAOMI observations show the same year-to-year and seasonal variabilities as the SABER 9.6 µm O3 data. The winter night-time (solar zenith angle, SZA ≥ 110 ∘) and twilight (75 ∘ ≤ SZA ≤ 110 ∘) NAOMI and SABER 9.6 µm O3 volume mixing ratio (VMR) profiles agree to within the measurement uncertainties. However, for autumn twilight conditions the SABER 9.6 µm O3 secondary maximum VMR values are higher than NAOMI over altitudes 88–97 km by 47 % and 59 %, respectively in 2017 and 2018. Comparing the two SABER channels which measure O3 at different wavelengths and use different processing schemes, the 9.6 µm O3 autumn twilight VMR data for the three years 2017–2019 are higher than the corresponding 1.27 µm measurements with the largest difference (58 %) in the 65–95 km altitude range similar to the NAOMI observation. The SABER 9.6 µm O3 summer daytime (SZA < 75 ∘) mesospheric O3 VMR is also consistently higher than the 1.27 µm measurement, confirming previously reported differences between the SABER 9.6 µm channel and measurements of mesospheric O3 by other satellite instruments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Earth's lower ionosphere is the region where terrestrial weather and space weather come together. Here, between 60 and 100 km altitude, solar radiation governs the diurnal cycle of the ionized species. This altitude range is also the place where nanometre-sized dust particles, recondensed from ablated meteoric material, exist and interact with free electrons and ions of the ionosphere. This study reports electron density measurements from the Arecibo incoherent-scatter radar being performed during sunset and sunrise conditions. An asymmetry of the electron density is observed, with higher electron density during sunset than during sunrise. This asymmetry extends from solar zenith angles (SZAs) of 80 to 100 ∘. This D-region asymmetry can be observed between 95 and 75 km altitude. The electron density observations are compared to the one-dimensional Sodankylä Ion and Neutral Chemistry (SIC) model and a variant of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model incorporating a subset SIC's ion chemistry (WACCM-D). Both models also show a D-region sunrise–sunset asymmetry. However, WACCM-D compares slightly better to the observations than SIC, especially during sunset, when the electron density gradually fades away. An investigation of the electron density continuity equation reveals a higher electron–ion recombination rate than the fading ionization rate during sunset. The recombination reactions are not fast enough to closely match the fading ionization rate during sunset, resulting in excess electron density. At lower altitudes electron attachment to neutrals and their detachment from negative ions play a significant role in the asymmetry as well. A comparison of a specific SIC version incorporating meteoric smoke particles (MSPs) to the observations revealed no sudden changes in electron density as predicted by the model. However, the expected electron density jump (drop) during sunrise (sunset) occurs at 100 ∘ SZA when the radar signal is close to the noise floor, making a clear falsification of MSPs' influence on the D region impossible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ground-based observations of 11.072 GHz atmospheric ozone (O3) emission have been made using the Ny-Ã…lesund Ozone in the Mesosphere Instrument (NAOMI) at the UK Arctic Research Station (latitude 78°55’0” N, longitude 11°55’59” E), Spitsbergen. Seasonally-averaged O3 vertical profiles in the Arctic polar mesosphere-lower thermosphere region for night-time and twilight conditions in the period 15 August 2017 to 15 March 2020 have been retrieved over the altitude range 62– 98 km. NAOMI measurements are compared with corresponding, overlapping observations by the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) satellite instrument. The NAOMI and SABER data are binned according to the SABER instrument 60-day yaw cycles into 3-month ‘winter’ (15 December–15 March), ‘autumn’ (15 August– 15 November), and ‘summer’ (15 April–15 July) periods. The NAOMI observations show the same year-to-year and seasonal variabilities as the SABER 9.6 μm O3 data. The winter night-time (solar zenith angle, SZA = 110°) and twilight (75° = SZA = 110°) NAOMI and SABER 9.6 &#956m O3 volume mixing ratio (VMR) profiles agree to within the measurement uncertainties. However, for autumn twilight conditions the SABER 9.6 µm O3 secondary maximum VMR values are higher than NAOMI over altitudes 88–97 km by 47% and 59% respectively in 2017 and 2018. Comparing the two SABER channels which measure O3 at different wavelengths and use different processing schemes, the 9.6 &#956m O3 autumn twilight VMR data for the three years 2017–19 are higher than the corresponding 1.27 µm measurements with the largest difference (58%) in the 65–95 km altitude range similar to the NAOMI observation. The SABER 9.6 &#956m O3 summer daytime (SZA < 75°) mesospheric O3 VMR is also consistently higher than the 1.27 µm measurement, confirming previously reported differences between the SABER 9.6 µm channel and measurements of mesospheric O3 by other satellite instruments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Ku-band microwave frequencies (10.70–14.25 GHz) overlap emissions from ozone (O3) at 11.072 GHz and hydroxyl radical (OH) at 13.441 GHz. These important chemical species in the polar middle atmosphere respond strongly to high-latitude geomagnetic activity associated with space weather. Atmospheric model calculations predict that energetic electron precipitation (EEP) driven by magnetospheric substorms produces large changes in polar mesospheric O3 and OH. The EEP typically peaks at geomagnetic latitudes of ∼65 ∘ and evolves rapidly with time longitudinally and over the geomagnetic latitude range 60–80 ∘. Previous atmospheric modelling studies have shown that during substorms OH abundance can increase by more than an order of magnitude at 64–84 km and mesospheric O3 losses can exceed 50 %. In this work, an atmospheric simulation and retrieval study has been performed to determine the requirements for passive microwave radiometers capable of measuring diurnal variations in O3 and OH profiles from high-latitude Northern Hemisphere and Antarctic locations to verify model predictions. We show that, for a 11.072 GHz radiometer making 6 h spectral measurements with 10 kHz frequency resolution and root-mean-square baseline noise of 1 mK, O3 could be profiled over 8×10-4 –0.22 hPa (∼98 –58 km) with 10–17 km height resolution and ∼1 ppmv uncertainty. For the equivalent 13.441 GHz measurements with vertical sensor polarisation, OH could be profiled over 3×10-3 –0.29 hPa (∼90 –56 km) with 10–17 km height resolution and ∼3 ppbv uncertainty. The proposed observations would be highly applicable to studies of EEP, atmospheric dynamics, planetary-scale circulation, chemical transport, and the representation of these processes in polar and global climate models. Such observations would provide a relatively low-cost alternative to increasingly sparse satellite measurements of the polar middle atmosphere, extending long-term data records and also providing "ground truth" calibration data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Ku-band microwave frequencies (10.70–14.25GHz) overlap emissions from ozone (O3) at 11.072 GHz and hydroxyl radical (OH) at 13.441GHz. These important chemical species in the polar middle atmosphere respond strongly to high latitude geomagnetic activity associated with space weather. Atmospheric model calculations predict that energetic electron precipitation (EEP) driven by magnetospheric sub storms produces large changes in polar mesospheric O3 and OH. The EEP typically peaks at geomagnetic latitudes ~65° and evolves rapidly with time longitudinally and over the geomagnetic latitude range 60°–80°. Previous atmospheric modelling studies have shown that during sub storms OH abundance can increase by more than an order of magnitude at 64–84km and mesospheric O3 losses can exceed 50%. In this work, an atmospheric simulation and retrieval study has been performed to determine the requirements for passive microwave radiometers capable of measuring diurnal variations in O3 and OH profiles from high latitude northern hemisphere and Antarctic locations to verify model predictions. We show that, for a 11.072GHz radiometer making 6h spectral measurements with 10kHz frequency resolution and root mean square baseline noise of 1mK, O3 could be profiled over 8×10−4–0.22hPa (~98–58km) with 10–17km height resolution and ~1ppmv uncertainty. For the equivalent 13.441GHz measurements with vertical sensor polarisation, OH could be profiled over 3×10−3–0.29hPa (~90–56km) with 10–17km height resolution and ~3ppbv uncertainty. The proposed observations would be highly applicable to studies of EEP, atmospheric dynamics, planetary scale circulation, chemical transport, and the representation of these processes in polar and global climate models. Such observations would provide a relatively low cost alternative to increasingly sparse satellite measurements of the polar middle atmosphere, extending long-term data records and also providing ground truth calibration data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme space weather events, while rare, can have a substantial impact on our technologically-dependent society. And, although such events have only occasionally been observed, through careful analysis of a wealth of space-based and ground-based observations, historical records, and extrapolations from more moderate events, we have developed a basic picture of the components required to produce them. Several key issues, however, remain unresolved. For example, what limits are imposed on the maximum size of such events? What are the likely societal consequences of a so-called "100-year" solar storm? In this review, we summarize our current scientific understanding about extreme space weather events as we follow several examples from the Sun, through the solar corona and inner heliosphere, across the magnetospheric boundary, into the ionosphere and atmosphere, into the Earth's lithosphere, and, finally, its impact on man-made structures and activities, such as spacecraft, GPS signals, radio communication, and the electric power grid. We describe preliminary attempts to provide probabilistic forecasts of extreme space weather phenomena, and we conclude by identifying several key areas that must be addressed if we are better able to understand, and, ultimately, predict extreme space weather events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study presents a new ion-neutral chemical model coupled into the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). The ionospheric D-region (altitudes ~50-90 km) chemistry is based on the Sodankylä Ion Chemistry (SIC) model, a one-dimensional model containing 307 ion-neutral and ion recombination, 16 photodissociation and 7 photoionization reactions of neutral species, positive and negative ions, and electrons. The SIC mechanism was reduced using the simulation error minimization connectivity method (SEM-CM) to produce a reaction scheme of 181 ion-molecule reactions of 181 ion-molecule reactions of 27 positive and 18 negative ions. This scheme describes the concentration profiles at altitudes between 20 km and 120 km of a set of major neutral species (HNO3, O3, H2O2, NO, NO2, HO2, OH, N2O5/ and ions (O+2, O+4, NO+, NO+ (H2O), O+2 (H2O), H+(H2O), H+(H2O)2, H+(H2O)3, H+(H2O)4, O-3, NO-2, O-, O2, OH-, O-2 (H2O), O-2 (H2O)2, O-4, CO-3, CO-3 (H2O), CO-4, HCO-3, NO-2, NO-3, NO-3 (H2O), NO-3 (H2O)2, NO-3 (HNO3/, NO-3 (HNO3/2, Cl-, ClO-/, which agree with the full SIC mechanism within a 5% tolerance. Four 3-D model simulations were then performed, using the impact of the January 2005 solar proton event (SPE) on D-region HOx and NOx chemistry as a test case of four different model versions: the standard WACCM (no negative ions and a very limited set of positive ions); WACCM-SIC (standard WACCM with the full SIC chemistry of positive and negative ions); WACCM-D (standard WACCM with a heuristic reduction of the SIC chemistry, recently used to examine HNO3 formation following an SPE); and WACCMrSIC (standard WACCM with a reduction of SIC chemistry using the SEM-CM method). The standard WACCM misses the HNO3 enhancement during the SPE, while the full and reduced model versions predict significant NOx, HOx and HNO3 enhancements in the mesosphere during solar proton events. The SEM-CM reduction also identifies the important ion-molecule reactions that affect the partitioning of odd nitrogen (NOx/, odd hydrogen (HOx / and O3 in the stratosphere and mesosphere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Observational studies suggest that part of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) variability may be attributed to the spectral ultra-violet (UV) irradiance variations associated to the 11-year solar cycle. The observed maximum surface pressure response in the North Atlantic occurs 2–4 years after solar maximum, and some model studies have identified that atmosphere–ocean feedbacks explain the multi-year lag. Alternatively, medium-to-high energy electron (MEE) precipitation, which peaks in the declining phase of the solar cycle, has been suggested as a potential cause of this lag. We use a coupled (ocean–atmosphere) climate prediction model and a state-of-the-art MEE forcing to explore the respective roles of irradiance and MEE precipitation on the NAO variability. Three decadal ensemble experiments were conducted over solar cycle 23 in an idealized setting. We found a weak ensemble-mean positive NAO response to the irradiance. The simulated signal-to-noise ratio remained very small, indicating the predominance of internal NAO variability. The lack of multi-annual lag in the NAO response was likely due to lagged solar signals imprinted in temperatures below the oceanic mixed-layer re-emerging equatorward of the oceanic frontal zones, which anchor ocean–atmosphere feedbacks. While there is a clear, yet weak, signature from UV irradiance in the atmosphere and upper ocean over the North Atlantic, enhanced MEE precipitation on the other hand does not lead to any systematic changes in the stratospheric circulation, despite its marked chemical signatures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]