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This paper employs the panel smooth transition autoregressive model to evaluate the threshold effect of unemployment rate on lottery sales and their persistence. To perform the empirical estimation, we use the panel data of lottery sales in 42 US states during the period of January 2003-December 2011. Thus, we have 4536 observations. The empirical results find that the effect of unemployment on lottery sales is nonlinear, heterogeneous, and time-varying, depending on the unemployment rates in different regimes. A rise (decrease) in unemployment will lead to a higher (lower) persistence effect of lottery sales. However, reducing unemployment rate is not a practical instrument for state governments to stabilize lottery markets. For the sellers of lottery tickets, designing new lottery products is a more efficient method for stimulating current lottery sales than anticipating the improvement in the unemployment rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper employs the smooth transition autoregressive model to evaluate the persistence of oil price changes, and chooses monetary policy variables as transition variables of the model to assess their roles in the persistence effects. The empirical results show that oil price changes displayed asymmetric adjustments within different regimes and were more sensitive to the movement of interest rates than inflation rate. In addition, high inflation rate would give rise to low oil price persistence, and expansionary monetary policy would bring about higher oil price persistence. Moreover, when the short- and long-term interest rates were over their threshold values, the persistence effects of oil price changes were opposite. In the present relatively low US interest rates, adopting either an inflation-targeting policy or/and a debt-financing policy to stimulate economic growth, the timing is appropriate and the effect will be positive and expected because of low persistence of oil price changes. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This paper employs a panel of 23 local governments in Taiwan over 1998–2010 to re-estimate the redistribution effects of intergovernmental fiscal transfers by considering a self-financing resources of local government as the transition variable in panel smooth transition regression models. Empirical results show that the income (or tax revenues) redistribution effects of fiscal transfer policies are nonlinear and vary with time and across local governments. The grants from central government can improve income and tax revenues distribution of local governments; however, the centrally allotted tax revenues have inverse effects and the total fiscal transfers have ambiguous effects. The total fiscal transfer is a proper policy instrument for improving income redistribution, and the grants for improving tax revenues redistribution. However, high self-financing resources ratios are harmful for these redistribution effects. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This study employs four data envelopment analysis (DEA) models to evaluate the performance efficiency of 21 OECD countries and assess whether the undesirable outputs are over-produced relative to desirable outputs. In evaluating the performance of OECD countries via super-efficiency models, this study focuses on two aspects. First, employing the concept of the Sharpe ratio, we propose another method to deal with undesirable outputs (the unemployment rate, inflation, and air pollution) in DEA. This approach can reveal the relative importance of desirable outputs and undesirable outputs, detect whether undesirable outputs are over-produced, and obtain more accurate efficiency scores. Second, we examine whether knowledge capital can improve a country's efficiency scores. Our empirical results support the above arguments. In addition, research and development (R&D) expenditures, the proxy variable for knowledge capital, can indeed improve countries' efficiency scores, implying that the endogenous growth theory is supported in OECD countries. Evidently, whether the undesirable outputs are included in the DEA models and are properly treated is crucial in the evaluation of efficiency values. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper employs the panel smooth transition regression (PSTR) model to investigate the role of Okun's misery index in the persistence of health spending in 19 OECD countries from 1980 to 2010. The empirical result shows that the health spending in the sample countries displays a nonlinear dynamic path and a high level of persistence. Compared to the constant persistence of the health spending in the linear model, the persistence effect in our constructed PSTR model depends on one-period lagged Okun's misery index, which varies with time and across countries. In addition, there is a trade-off for the governments of 19 OECD countries to lower misery index and suppress the growth of health spending. In particular, the negative impact of one-period lagged misery index on the persistence is increasing (decreasing) when one-period lagged misery index is below (above) its threshold value (i.e., 11.1333 %). Finally, a high persistence of health spending means that current health spending is less disturbed by current shocks. Thus, revising health care system is more efficient than improving macroeconomic conditions for a government to suppress the growth in health spending. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The human development index (HDI) rankings have provided a referenced measure for people to choose a country in which to travel or live. This paper employs a superefficiency model to evaluate the rationality of the HDI rankings of 19 evaluated OECD countries in 2009. Compared to the HDI rankings, the efficiency rankings measured by the super-efficiency model have the following two advantages: (1) they consider the inputs that are used to generate the indicators for constructing the HDI, and decide the weights of inputs and outputs endogenously; (2) the input slacks measured by the super-efficiency model can evaluate whether the inputs are over-used and provide the improvement path of each country's input variables. Empirical result shows that approximately 75 % of the evaluated countries had rather different results in the efficiency rankings and the HDI rankings. Additionally, the input slack shows that roughly 70 % of sample countries over-used their capital per labor relative to their existing outputs (or the HDI). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]