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For the first time, a self-consistent mathematical approach to describe economic processes with a general form of a memory function is proposed. In this approach, power-type memory is a special case of such general memory. The memory is described by pairs of memory functions that satisfy the Sonin and Luchko conditions. We propose using general fractional calculus (GFC) as a mathematical language that allows us to describe a general form of memory in economic processes. The existence of memory (non-locality in time) means that the process depends on the history of changes to this process in the past. Using GFC, exactly solvable economic models of natural growth with a general form of memory are proposed. Equations of natural growth with general memory are equations with general fractional derivatives and general fractional integrals for which the fundamental theorems of GFC are satisfied. Exact solutions for these equations of models of natural growth with general memory are derived. The properties of dynamic maps with a general form of memory are described in the general form and do not depend on the choice of specific types of memory functions. Examples of these solutions for various types of memory functions are suggested. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper has two purposes. The first is to argue that aggregate investment may be subject to the following paradox. A rise in investment decided by firms to correct overutilization of their production capacity may generate less capacity than demand — and hence cause a paradoxical rise in overutilization. This will in turn lead to even more investment, and so on — the result being the self-sustained rises in output that characterize economic expansions. The second purpose of the paper is to put forward one reason why the above paradox of investment will lose strength as expansions progress, and may eventually disappear leading to their end. That reason may be summarized as follows. As net investment increases along expansions, the effect of investment on production capacity rises relative to its effect on demand — and, as a result, the rise in utilization slows down. Moreover, as net investment eventually grows to a high level, the effect of investment on capacity may become bigger than its effect on demand. If this happens, utilization will stop rising and start falling, and thus the same may happen with investment and output. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article aimed to analyze the behavior of the northeastern municipal economic dynamics explained in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in relation to the volume of the Bolsa Família Program (PBF) destined for each entity, the proportion obtained from the Votes by the Mayor Elected (VPE) in the face of the set of voters participating in the election on the spot and the Mayor-Elect Party Coalition (CPPE) established or not with the state governor, based on per capita variables, in the period of 2004, 2008, 2012 and 2016. Methodologically, it was used to measurement of research results the quantile regression model for panel data. The results showed that GDP responded positively to PBF and negatively in most countries. municipalities to the VPE and CPPE did not bring favorable impacts on the northeastern municipal economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Platinum group metals (PGMs), including palladium, play a pivotal role in various industries due to their unique properties. Palladium is frequently employed in technologies aimed at environmental preservation, such as catalytic converters that reduce harmful emissions from vehicles, and in the production of clean energy, notably in the hydrogen evolution process. Regrettably, the production of this vital metal for our environment is predominantly centered in two countries—Russia and South Africa. This centralization has led to palladium being classified as a critical raw material, emphasizing the importance of establishing a secure and sustainable supply chain, as well as employing the most efficient methods for processing materials containing palladium. This review explores techniques for palladium production from primary sources and innovative recycling methods, providing insights into current technologies and emerging approaches. Furthermore, it investigates the economic aspects of palladium production, including price fluctuations influenced by emission regulations and electric vehicle sales, and establishes connections between palladium prices, imports from major producers, as well as copper and nickel prices, considering their often co-occurrence in ores. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Import and export commerce is a significant strategy for stimulating national economic growth and realizing foreign exchange. Based on the above, this research work dives into the delicate link between changes in China's peripheral diplomatic relations and their resultant consequences on export commerce in China's quickly developing global environment. It provides a unique combined forecasting model that combines autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) time-series analysis with long short-term memory (LSTM) networks to answer the pressing demand for accurate forecasts in this dynamic setting. First, a forecasting model is established for the influencing factors and volume of import and export trade of ASEAN. Second, it establishes the regression equation with the econometrics method by analyzing the specific impact of each influencing factor on the forecasting target. Moreover, it uses data statistics to mathematically process the historical data of ASEAN's import and export volume by determining the correlation between ASEAN's trade volume and some influencing factors. Regression analysis is often used to find relationships between variables. Adding ARIMA time-series modeling improves the model's prediction capabilities, providing a comprehensive insight into China–ASEAN import and export trade volume dynamics. Finally, it compares the performance of the suggested forecasting model to existing approaches, which proves that the correlation rate is enhanced to above 90%. In contrast, other error rates, including the average root, are decreased to the square error. These results show that the prediction model based on the combination of time series and LSTM produces the best short-term forecast of China and ASEAN import and export volume. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Richard H. Day was a renaissance man and a difference maker. This essay honors the life and scholarly work of Dick Day, expressed mostly through those who knew him as colleagues and students. It also provides an introduction to this special issue, which honors Professor Day with papers of the type he founded this journal to publish. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Structural change tests aim to identify evidence of a structural break or change in the underlying generating process of a time series. The BDS test has its origins in chaos theory and seeks to test, using the correlation integral, the hypothesis that a time series is generated by an identically and independently distributed (IID) stochastic process over time. The BDS test is already widely used as a powerful tool for testing the hypothesis of white noise in the residuals of time series models. In this paper, we illustrate how the BDS test can be implemented also in a recursive manner to evaluate the hypothesis of structural change in a time series, taking advantage of its ability to test the IID hypothesis. We apply the BDS test repeatedly, starting with a sub-sample of the original time series and incrementally increasing the number of observations until it is applied to the full sample time series. A structural change in the unknown underlying generator model is detected when a change in the trend shown by this recursively computed BDS statistic is detected. The strength of this recursive BDS test lies in the fact that it does not require making any assumptions about the underlying time series generator model. We ilustrate the power and potential of this recursive BDS test through an application to real economic data. In this sense, we apply the test to assess the structural changes caused by the COVID-19 pandemic in international financial markets. Using daily data from the world's top stock indices, we have detected strong and statistically significant evidence of two major structural changes during the period from June 2018 to June 2022. The first occurred in March 2020, coinciding with the onset of economic restrictions in the main Western countries as a result of the pandemic. The second occurred towards the end of August 2020, with the end of the main economic restrictions and the beginning of a new post-pandemic economic scenario. This methodology to test for structural changes in a time series is easy to implement and can detect changes in any system or process behind the time series even when this generating system is not known, and without the need to specify or estimate any a priori generating model. In this sense, the recursive BDS test could be incorporated as an initial preliminary step to any exercise of time series modeling. If a structural change is detected in a time series, rather than estimating a single predictive model for the full-sample time series, efforts should be made to estimate different predictive models, one for the time before and one for the time after the detected structural change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There are no common methods of the search for optimal solutions to problems of economic dynamics. Application of variational methods is possible for a quite narrow class of problems. In this paper, we discuss application of the Pontryagin maximum principle, which significantly expands the class of problems considered and allows one to obtain numerical solutions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previously, the authors proposed two mathematical models that describe the dynamics of economic development rates and forecasting inflation rates. The events that took place after February 2022 introduced an element of significant turbulence into the processes of macroeconomic dynamics in Russia, which required some correction of the previous models. This is reflected in this article. The processes simulated on the basis of new models show that a significant reduction in the interest rate and a steady increase in the money supply are required to restore economic growth and reduce inflation in the medium term. It is shown that, in the current era of geopolitical changes and the collapse of many liberal market dogmas, the role of the state and planning in managing economic processes is increasing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we review the theories of business cycles in the 20th century after the work of John Maynard Keynes. Fluctuations in economic activity have been observed with considerable regularity since the beginning of the last century, motivating empirical efforts to, identify, measure, and understand business cycles, contributing to the identification of stylized facts on business cycles, facts the business cycle theories should try to explain. Theories however have been very distinct through the years. Despite the different explanations for the sources of cycles, in mainstream economics, there was the underlying hypothesis of stability and equilibrium as a main characteristic of the economic system. The heterodox view on business cycles, in contrast, starts with Keynes pre-dynamic theory, considering the intrinsic instability of the system and extends through several other authors and theories. In this paper, we use the concepts of equilibrium and instability as a demarcating guide to separate theories in two groups: the mainstream view and the heterodox view. We notice however that, even though different authors and theories might share similar views on the self-equilibrating property of the economic system, there is no coherent integration between similar theories. We conclude the paper with some methodological insights that might lead to a coherent and integrated approach to explain business cycles in the heterodox view, requiring new and complex methods and tools. • Equilibrium and instability as demarcating guide to Business Cycles theories. • Empirical stylized facts on Cycles are to be explained by theories. • In mainstream, cycles are external shocks damped by internal response mechanisms. • The heterodox view instead assumes endogenous instability. • Despite common assumptions, cycle theories have been very distinct. • We propose an integrated heterodox approach under some guiding principles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The importance of the study of relevant mathematical methods and models of long-term development of the national industry is substantiated. It has been proven that causal econometric models of production are relatively simple and convenient to use in practice, as well as the most common tools for researching the long-term economic future. It was defined that the production functions, adapted to individual circumstances, proved their ability to solve the assigned tasks. However, the problem of more accurate adjustment to the features of the simulated object of research is particularly relevant in the current conditions of development of Ukraine, in the conditions of concentration of attention on certain sectors, on particular branch of industry, and in connection with the revolutionary transformations of production forces and relations, in accordance with the spread of cyber-physical technologies of the Fourth Industrial revolution. In such specific circumstances, it makes sense to ask for more sophisticated models. On the one hand, they are better, as they allow more accurate tuning of the modeled object, including by adding important factors that are outside the production system. On the other hand, they are worse because they complicate the analysis and significantly increase the number of variables needed to describe the dynamics of economic growth. In this connection, expert research methods cannot be neglected. Choosing the type of model, the range of influencing factors, possible development scenarios, etc., usually requires expert assessments (often implicit). Therefore, when analyzing longterm factors and development trends, it is important to adhere to the main methodological message of expert approaches in the construction of foresights: for long time horizons in conditions of significant uncertainty, it is appropriate to ask questions not about the calculation of the "correct future", but about the assessment of the spectrum of probable scenarios of development, expansion and rethinking its new opportunities and challenges, in particular - to avoid potentially harmful ideas and expectations, embedded in the current policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Firms in the U.S. spend over $200 billion each year advertising their products to consumers, around one percent of the country's gross domestic product. It is of great interest to understand how that aggregate expenditure affects prices, market efficiency, and overall welfare. Here, we present a mathematical model for the dynamics of competition through advertising and find a surprising prediction: when advertising is relatively cheap compared to the maximum benefit advertising offers, rational firms split into two groups, one with significantly less advertising (a ``generic"" group) and one with significantly more advertising (a ``name-brand"" group). Our model predicts that this segmentation will also be reflected in price distributions; we use large consumer data sets to test this prediction and find good qualitative agreement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We consider the requirement of taking climate action for authorities in urban mobility planning. • Three alternative small-scale projects that the city planners can develop and implement are used. • Twelve societal dynamics criteria are grouped as technical, environmental, economic, and political. • We propose an improvement of WASPAS by Einstein norms in a fuzzy environment over triangular fuzzy numbers. • The results show that the best plan should be inclusive, equitable and economically efficient. The twin challenges posed by biodiversity loss and climate change compel public authorities to transform their traditional policies to take climate action via urban mobility planning. However, the interests of the stakeholders may differ so that the development and the implementation of the required action become challenging. In this study, we trace how an optimal action plan should take the societal dynamics into account and how the actions taken can reshape the societal dynamics. To illustrate and analyze the complex forces that drive the decision-making process in urban mobility planning, we develop a scenario, which bunches three small-scale urban mobility planning alternatives that are frequently proposed in the literature and practiced in cities. Alternatives are assessed under twelve criteria reflecting economic, environmental, technical, and political dimensions of the decision problem. In solving the problem, we propose an improvement of the Weighted Aggregated Sum Product Assessment (WASPAS) approach by applying Einstein norms in a fuzzy environment over triangular fuzzy numbers to evaluate and rank the prioritization of climate change mitigation strategies. The proposed method comprises two stages. In the first stage, the weight coefficients of the criteria are calculated. In the second stage, the fuzzy Einstein WASPAS approach is applied to select the most suitable alternative among the three alternatives. Testing and validation of the model are done through a comparison with existing decision making methods in the literature. The results show that the best plan should be inclusive and equitable as well as economically efficient. Although the economic dimension is highly significant to the decision-making process, choosing the most suitable urban mobility planning option requires the consideration of other societal dynamics, too. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Introduces a novel morphogenetic framework for understanding economic dynamics • Presents a unified approach to study the interplay between economic structures and their dynamics • Highlights the role of coupling, diffusion and symmetry-breaking in studying structural change • Synthesises interdisciplinary insights from three different disciplines, and develops prospective links with economic theorising Economic systems are characterised by constant change and evolution, and explanations concerning the properties of economic structures have received sustained interest. The structure of a system and its dynamics can influence each other through feedback effects. In this paper we offer a brief survey of how structure plays a role in dynamic economic theory – in particular, growth and business cycles. We propose a morphogenetic framework, inspired from the creation of forms in developmental biology, as a potential unifying approach for studying economic structures and their dynamics. We synthesise insights from three different strands of research, focusing on the role of coupling, diffusion and symmetry-breaking. We highlight their existing and prospective links with economics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Robert Lucas' ([1972b] 1981a) article on the neutrality of money represented the first effective challenge to Samuelson's neoclassical synthesis methodological separation between static microeconomic optimisation and macroeconomic dynamics. Lucas rejected disequilibrium price dynamics, as expressed by the Walrasian tâtonnement and auctioneer mechanisms. Lucas' new treatment of equilibrium as an expectational concept, determined by the rational behaviour of information processing agents, was not restricted to market clearing competitive economies. Lucas' effort to compare alternative rational expectations models of price stickiness (including his 1972 original formulation) led him to stress the notion of descriptive realism of the models' main assumptions, which played an important role in his original discussion of model robustness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The dynamics of Chinese participation in the external relationship of the economy of Mato Grosso do Sul is related mainly to two factors. First, the Chinese development itself. Second, the development of the internal economy of Mato Grosso do Sul as a result of the dynamism of change in its productive chains that occurred from 2006/2009. The main objective of this article is to analyze the commercial relations between the state of Mato Grosso do Sul and China in relation to the profound transformations verified in the portfolio of the parties involved, between 1997 and 2019. Until 2004, China occupied only 2.94% of imports, with a limited portfolio of products and, in 2019, was the second main partner in imports with 19.71%. Exports followed the upward movement until China became the main trading partner of Mato Grosso do Sul. In 2003, exports to China totaled less than 3% and in 2019 they reached 40.94%. The methodology used consisted in the study of important works related to Chinese development and the dynamics of the internal economy of the state of Mato Grosso do Sul, besides systematization and analysis of statistical data from official organisms. Thus, it is noted, through this analysis, that there was a gradual increase in China's participation in exports to the state of Mato Grosso do Sul, including greater diversification, adding there products with higher technological content, such as containers, electric motors, integrated circuits and chemical industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper focuses on four critical differences between capitalism of the Keynes-Kalecki times and the present-day financial capitalism. The first follows from the wholesale globalisation and liberalisation of financial and capital markets which drastically changed the nature of political opposition against full employment. The second results from changes in income and wealth distribution and in access to basic public services like health, education, and social security. The third is the evolution of the Schumpeterian entrepreneurial innovators to financial rent-seekers and speculators. The fourth relates to the question whether economic dynamics and business fluctuations are of Kaleckian nature, i.e. resulting from the feedback between the income generating effect, and the productive capacity augmenting effect, of private investment in fixed capital, or are they of Minskian financial instability nature. And if the latter is true, what is the room for any countercyclical policy that Keynes and Kalecki recommended. The essay ends with the question on how to include the Minskian financial instability of the present-day capitalism into Kalecki's canonical profit equation on which his theory of economic dynamics and business fluctuations is founded. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

By using the US economy as an example, the paper shows how the COVID-19 pandemic has changed its short-term dynamics, causing a deep crisis recession in 2020 rather than the expected short-term and shallow recession in 2022 caused by the inflation of the financial bubble during the credit expansion that followed the financial and economic crisis of 2008–2009. To predict the latter scenario, which is natural for the US economy, the authors first developed a mathematical model based on Hyman Minsky's theory of financial instability, which can serve to manage the processes of credit expansion and contraction in an unstable economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article, we analyze the current economic dynamics, the urbanization and the expansion of the lower circuit of the urban economy in Rio Grande do Norte and, specifically, on the road axis Natal-Caicó. We have adopted this road as cutting analysis due to the fact that subsystem of potiguar territory connect municipalities of the interior and the coast of the State, stand out by intercity passenger flows and be characterized by cities whose economic center is the highway that passes through, being the highway bordered by various activities of the economy not hegemonic. Our analysis is grounded in theoretical reflections on the socioeconomic dynamics of the potiguar territory and in the interpretation of statistical data regarding this dynamic and primary data resulting from field research conducted on axis Natal-Caicó. Thus, we reflect on the economic modernization of the potiguar territory, paying attention to the process of urbanization of that territory and the road axis Natal-Caicó and understated the contribution of expansion of not hegemonic economy to the process of urbanization. We conclude whereas the cities and the economy grow based on supporters of poverty structural economic activities produced by the modernization of the territory, this characteristic of the process of precarious work. As systemic response to this situation, there is the threading of the urban economy, with the lower subsystem increasingly dependent on top, as well as more permanent and receiver of workers with precarious work relations and unemployment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper specifies the notion of a business cycle as a specific and universal demonstration of the economic matter movement; reveals the basic research principles of dynamic processes in the economy and their main properties. The author shows how the simple definition of the nature of economic dynamics is filled with a specific and universal content through the lens of the dialectic notion and evolution process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of this article is to analyze the economic dynamic of the tertiary sector of Francisco Beltrão, Paraná, highlighting the services of education, specifically, public Higher Education Institutions (HEI) and their role of dynamization of the local and regional economy where they are inserted. Thus, the HEI play an important role in regional development, contributing to mitigate the economic and social disparities. This article aims to scale the amount of financial resources handled by the campuses of Francisco Beltrão at the UNIOESTE and the UTFPR, as well as, to verify a spatialization of the interactions provided by the origin of the academic of these PHEI, which, in turn, allows us to deepen the understanding of the urban network and its centrality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we study the duopoly model proposed by M. Kopel [26], where two firms compete “ a la Cournot ” and the reaction curves have a higher degree of coupling in the sense that firms have to make their choices simultaneously. We will make a descriptive analysis of the two-dimensional model, making an approach through particular situations. On the other hand, when the firms are homogeneous a one-dimensional invariant subset is present in the model. We will give an analytical proof of the existence of a (topological) chaotic behavior for a wide range of parameter values and we will study when chaotic synchronization and collusion occur. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Capitalist economic systems display a wide variety of oscillatory phenomena whose underlying causes are often not well understood. In this paper, I consider a very simple model of the reciprocal interaction between investment, capacity utilization, and their time derivatives. The model, which gives rise periodic oscillations, predicts qualitatively the phase relations between these variables. These predictions are observed to be consistent in a statistical sense with econometric data from the US economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

On average, environmental income accounts for more than a quarter of rural household income in tropical and sub-tropical countries. One way to increase incomes from wild-harvested products is cultivation. In a landmark paper, Homma (1992) identified four phases describing the economic dynamics of environmental product cultivation, emphasising product scarcity. We reviewed literature that applied and/or discussed Homma's model. This suggested that additional factors, beyond resource scarcity, induce the transition to cultivation. We propose an alternative model of the dynamics of environmental product cultivation pathways, emphasising stock size, contextual, harvester, and mediating factors. The model has four possible product-level outcomes: scarcity induced cultivation, economic extinction, abundance with cultivation, and continued sole wild harvesting. We investigated this model empirically through the case of commercial medicinal plant harvesting in Nepal, using harvester interviews (n = 362) and published monthly price data for the most commonly traded products (n = 12) during a nine-year period. We found evidence of all four possible product-level outcomes, with "abundance with cultivation" being the most common. This supports that scarcity is not sufficient to explain cultivation processes; harvester decision-making processes and contextual and mediating factors must also be assessed. • The first systematic review of Homma's model of extractive reserves. • New model of the economic dynamics of environmental product cultivation pathways. • Outcomes: scarcity induced cultivation, extinct, abundant with/without cultivation. • All four outcomes documented in empirical case. • Harvester characteristics are significant for whether cultivation is undertaken. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We define the economic correspondents for kinetic and potential energy of production and mutually coherent Newtonian and Lagrangian frameworks for modeling production. The neoclassical theory is shown to correspond to zero-force situation in the introduced framework where the potential energy of the production system is in its minimum. This explains why it has been difficult to explain real world production dynamics by using the neoclassical framework. Our framework adds dynamics in the neoclassical theory and includes in it cases like firms' permanent growth, business cycles, and bankruptcies. These are impossible events in the neoclassical framework that assumes firms to produce at constant positive profit maximizing flow of production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In Slovenia, two key development documents, i.e. Slovenia's Development Strategy and Spatial Development Strategy of Slovenia, have been revised over the last two years. Various studies that assess the objectives or try to define a new vision of (spatial) development of Slovenia by 2050 have been conducted. To this end, we studied the economic profiles of Slovenian municipalities, based on the classification of economy into three groups: residential economy (R), productive economy (P), and creative economy (C). This paper therefore analyses the dynamics of the proposed economic profile of Slovenian municipalities in 2000-2013. TThe analysis of the economic profile dynamics was done for 192 municipalities from the beginning of the period. In particular, we analysed the economic profile and its movement within the municipalities of 15 regional centres of Slovenia. The results of the study show that Slovenia shifted from a predominantly productive economy (P) to a country with a predominantly residential economy (R), while it is becoming stronger in creative economy (C). This new approach addresses the development challenges better than the previous division of the economy into primary, secondary, tertiary, and quaternary sectors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this paper is to consider whether there is an evolving regional economic integration (or disintegration) in Southeast Europe, which is based on the ethno-religious composition of the countries concerned. Namely, to analyse the evolving regional integration in Southeast Europe by evaluating foreign trade data. The main focus of this paper is on the case of Turkey, because after the Millennium the foreign policy of Turkey puts a higher emphasis on focusing on the states which had been parts of the former Ottoman Empire. It can be presumed that in the fields of social relations these countries have more fruitful economic relations as well. Jovan Cvijić in his 'anthropogeographical' research analysed the geographical influences on cultural dynamics and ethics, which still prevail. This present study attempts to explore the relations between the social factors and the economic matters by carrying out an analysis of product lines, their types, and market value in the period 2008-2014. The study suggests that despite the fact that the cultural ties of Turkey based on ethnicity and religion are tighter with Albania and the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina than with e.g. Serbia and Croatia, in a globally connected world, the market opportunities, the geographical distance, and the ability to pay for products and services matter more than historical and cultural relations. This is the reason why Turkey has profitable economic relations with Romania, Greece and Bulgaria. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Renewable energy has been encouraged to address climate change and promote sustainable development, leading to structural changes in the national energy matrices. Brazil is reaching a 50/50 renewable/non-renewable energy mix. However, the wide variability in emissions intensity among renewable sources raises questions about the effectiveness of structural changes for SDGs. The present study aims to identify typological profiles (TPs) of structural changes in sectoral energy and carbon footprint and their contributions to sustainable development. From an ecological input-output model, we calculated the sectoral energy and carbon footprint for 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2015. The method adds novelty by creating typologies of structural changes confronting renewable vs. non-renewable and mainly renewable vs. renewable. Four TPs of structural change were found. TP-I and TP-II tended to increase the relative share of renewables in their energy footprint, opposing TP-III and TP-IV. A controversy emerged contrasting TP-I and TP-II since both increased renewable consumption. TP-I decreased the renewable emissions while TP-II increased them. The explanation lies in the energy sources' emissions intensity. While TP-I sectors tended to increase the consumption of renewable energies with low intensity of emissions, such as electricity, TP-II sectors increased the consumption of renewables whose gross emissions intensity could be even higher than non-renewables. Therefore, the simple substitution of non-renewable for renewable sources may not be enough. Pursuing the long-term sustainable structural changes need to be planned based on renewable sources with the lowest net emission intensity and highest renewability. [Display omitted] • Replacing non-renewables with renewables may not be enough to achieve the SDGs. • Typological profiles (TPs) of structural changes may indicate the most effective strategies. • Effective pro-SDGs strategies move sectors from TP-IV, TP-III, and TP-II to TP-I. • Renewables with the lowest net emissions intensity and highest renewability are preferable. • Being renewable is not enough when the emission intensity is higher than non-renewables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose. To identify the most effective way of income distribution, in order to enhance the enterprise innovative and competitive capabilities. Methodology. Samuelson - Hicks model of economic dynamics study is used. Changing the basic economic parameters in time is analyzed for dynamic problems. Time can be considered as discrete and/or continuous. In the discrete case, units of analysis are the difference equations. In the case of continuous time, changes of the parameters are described by differential equations. Any changes in the economic situation may lead to unstable equilibrium. Monotone solution characterizes a stable system. Oscillatory solution requires research on the stability of the system. Findings. During the study of the Samuelson - Hicks economic dynamics model, different distribution options of income on consumption and investment have been analyzed. It has been shown at what ratio the economic system is in a stable state, and when it goes into an unstable state. Introduction of innovative technologies is possible only in a stable economic system. Using the results of the research can prevent instability of the enterprise. Originality . Scientific novelty of the paper is in theoretical basis for the distribution of income on consumption and investment. Practical value. Instability of the enterprise can be avoided when using the results of the study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we investigate the economic dynamics of a seven-equation model of the business cycle. The main distinctive features of the model are related to: (a) the role played by the public sector in redeploying income between workers and capitalists, since it is assumed that the bargaining power of the two classes affects tax rates and transfers levied upon them; (b) the influence that past events have on the agents’ current behavior, with particular regard to consumption patterns; (c) the specification of firms’ investment function, which incorporate Keynesian and Harrodian elements by assuming that investments are a function of both the difference between interest and profit rate and the discrepancy between actual and desired capital to output ratio. Since all these assumptions imply possible balance sheets disequilibrium, particular regard is dedicated to the analysis of macroagents’ debt dynamics. Special emphasis is placed on the analysis of the destabilization of equilibria via Hopf bifurcations, which leads to the emergence of an interesting and rich cyclical dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Political economy and economic sociology have developed in relative isolation from each other. While political economy focuses largely on macro phenomena, economic sociology focuses on the embeddedness of economic action. The article argues that economic sociology can provide a microfoundation for political economy beyond rational actor theory and behavioral economics. At the same time political economy offers a unifying research framework for economic sociology with its focus on the explanation of capitalist dynamics. The sociological microfoundation for understanding of capitalist dynamics should focus on the expectations actors have regarding future states of the world. Based on a discussion of what I call the four Cs of capitalism (credit, commodification, creativity, and competition), I argue that under conditions of uncertainty, expectations are contingent and should be understood as “fictional expectations.” The capability of humans to imagine future states of the world that can be different from the present is the central basis for a sociological microfoundation of the dynamics of economic macro phenomena. Macroeconomic dynamics are anchored in these “fictional expectations,” which create motifs for engaging in potentially profitable but ultimately incalculable outcomes. This shifts attention to the “management of expectations” as a crucial element of economic activity and to the institutional, political, and cultural foundations of expectations. The reproduction of capitalism is precarious also because of the contingency of expectations conducive to its growth. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Abstract: We study the global attractors of quasi-linear non-autonomous difference equations and we apply the reached results to an economic growth model of Solow type while assuming that the population growth rate is endogenous and described by the logistic equation. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

With equal profit functions, the static neo-classical theory of a firm and its dynamization by dynamic optimization give equal results. Thus without additional assumptions, dynamic optimization does not dynamize the theory. In the existing models, the solution paths obtained by dynamic optimization converge to the static optimum only under very restricting initial conditions. On the other hand, the static neoclassical theory of a consumer and its dynamization by dynamic optimization explain different quantities: the real consumption of various goods and the money allocated for consumption over time. Thus the dynamic neo-classical micro theory obtained by dynamic optimization is either inconsistent with the static one, or models a different quantity. The neo-classical framework is then lacking consistent static and dynamic theories of a firm and a consumer, and here we introduce such. We define the "economic forces" acting upon the production of a firm and the consumption of a consumer, and show that these dynamic theories analogous to Newtonian mechanics are consistent with the static neo-classical ones; the latter correspond to zero-force situations in the former. The proposed theories are expressed with measurable quantities and they explain economic growth too. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the dynamic property of a macroeconomic model developed by Matsuyama [Am. Econ. Rev. 97(2007), pp. 503–516] in detail. It is shown that the model can be transformed into a version of the neuron model analysed by Hata [J. Math. Kyoto Univ. 22(1982), pp. 155–173, Chaos in Neural Network Models (in Japanese), Asakura, Tokyo 1998] and that the system can exhibit either periodic fluctuations or non-periodic (chaotic) fluctuations. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Abstract: The aim of this paper is to investigate whether an oligopoly given by isoelastic demand function and constant marginal costs converges to a duopoly, that is, all the firms except for two of them will not produce anything in future. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This work is primarily based on a recently proposed toy model by Thurner et al. (2010) on Schumpeterian economic dynamics (inspired by the idea of economist Joseph Schumpeter ). Interestingly, punctuated equilibrium has been shown to emerge from the dynamics. The punctuated equilibrium and Power law are known to be associated with similar kinds of biologically relevant evolutionary models proposed in the past. The occurrence of the Power law is a signature of Self-Organised Criticality (SOC). In our view, power laws can be obtained by controlling the dynamics through incorporating the idea of feedback into the algorithm in some way. The so-called ‘feedback’ was achieved by introducing the idea of fitness and selection processes in the biological evolutionary models. Therefore, we examine the possible emergence of a power law by invoking the concepts of ‘fitness’ and ‘selection’ in the present model of economic evolution. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Failure of economic models to anticipate the global financial crisis illustrates the need for modeling to better capture complex real-world dynamics. Conventional models--in which economic variables evolve toward equilibria or fluctuate about equilibria in response to exogenous random shocks--are ill-equipped to portray complex real-world dynamics in which economic variables may cycle aperiodically along low-dimensional 'strange attractors'. We present a method developed in the physics literature--'phase space reconstruction'--that reconstructs strange attractors present in real-world dynamical systems using time series data on a single variable. Phase space reconstruction provides pictures of real-world dynamics that can guide model specification. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The single most important postulate in economics is what you assume about the totality of all possible states that the economy can be in (the state space). The assumption you make determines the costs of information and learning when exploring that state space, the nature of the equilibrating forces of the markets of the economy, towards what kind of equilibrium the economic system is heading and what that means for the modes of behavior of individuals and firms, in short the dynamics of the economy. The mainstream model of economics assumes a very narrow and, for all practical purposes, fully transparent state space and thus excludes all interesting dynamics from the analysis by assumption. I argue for the alternative assumption of a very large and non-transparent state space, or investment opportunities space that takes us into the unpredictable world of an Experimentally Organized Economy that is more compatible with economic reality. In that brave new world of economics new answers to old questions appear. Above all, using the tools of analysis developed from, and for the mainstream neoclassical model to study the realities of an EOE will place the analyst in a misinformation situation. I illustrate that through simulation on the Swedish micro to macro (MM) model and with one Swedish business case. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Studies of non-linear cobweb models have failed to address a fundamental issue: whether the complex dynamical behavior displayed by such models is consistent with the survival of producers. This paper shows that where borrowing is unconstrained, as is implicitly assumed in standard cobweb models, borrowing results in financial crises. Incorporating constraints on borrowing is needed to salvage cobweb models. Industry performance (in terms both of profitability and of the incidence of bankruptcies) is highly sensitive to the nature of such credit restrictions. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Extreme events are one of the main channels through which climate and socioeconomic systems interact, and it is likely that climate change will modify the probability distribution of the losses they generate. The long-term growth models used in climate change assessments, however, cannot capture the effects of such short-term shocks. To investigate this issue, a non-equilibrium dynamic model (NEDyM) is used to assess the macroeconomic consequences of extreme events. This exercise allowed us to define the economic amplification ratio, as the ratio of the overall production loss due to an event to its direct costs. This ratio could be used to improve the cost–benefit analysis of prevention measures. We found also that, unlike a Solow-like model, NEDyM exhibits a bifurcation in GDP losses: for each value of the capacity to fund reconstruction, GDP losses remain moderate if the intensity and frequency of extremes remain under a threshold value, beyond which GDP losses increase sharply. This bifurcation may partly explain why some poor countries that experience repeated natural disasters cannot develop. Applied to the specific issue of climate change, this model highlights the importance of short-term constraints in the assessment of long-term damages, and shows that changes in the distribution of extremes may entail significant GDP losses in absence of specific adaptation. It suggests, therefore, that to avoid inaccurately low assessments of damages, researchers must take into account the distribution of extremes instead of their average cost and make explicit assumptions on the organization of future economies. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: We consider a new property of an optimal control problem called a lens. A lens is an interior point in the state–control phase plane where—given the value of the state variable—there is only one control value satisfying the necessary optimality conditions and—given the value of the control variable—there is only one state value satisfying the necessary optimality conditions. We build a simple model that generates a lens and give necessary and sufficient conditions under which a lens occurs. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The understanding of economic dynamics requires the analytical consideration of the future "irreality" in which action goals are located. Producing or innovating are actions conditioned by the changing goals pursued by agents. The explanation of some characteristics of innovation processes can only be addressed by considering the dynamics of goals formulation. In order to achieve their goals, agents must deploy their capabilities. The paper presents some reflections on the essential role which intentions play in economic dynamics. The main argument states that the constant feedback between intentions and dynamic capabilities transforms the economic system. The intention of transforming action spaces, here referred to as innovative intentionality, is linked to the formulation of transforming goals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: A simple model of pure competition among a finite number of cautious, adaptive economizing firms is used to explore industrial behavior when outputs are bounded by financial feedback. Identical agents share identical trajectories that can converge to a competitive equilibrium, but the slightest heterogeneity in initial conditions, degree of caution, or in unit costs drives all from the market except a subset of competitors who share identical costs and output levels. Those remaining can converge to a competitive equilibrium. If demand is inelastic at such a point, however, fluctuations in output, perhaps after a prolonged period of profitable growth can arise with profitable periods followed by sharp losses or even a complete collapse. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Chaos in foreign exchange markets is a common issue of concern in the study of economic dynamics. In this work, we mainly investigate the competition effect on chaos in foreign exchange markets. As one of the main economic structures in the globalization process, competition between two target exchange rates with the same base currency forms a simple competitive exchange rate relation, where each exchange rate follows the chaotic model of De Grauwe (Exchange Rate Theory-Chaotic Models of Foreign Exchange Markets, Blackwell, Oxford, Cambridge, MA, 1993). The main discovery is, while each exchange rate is in its non-chaotic parameter regions, the effect of competition will “hatch” butterfly-like chaotic attractors in the competitive market. The positive Lyapunov exponent in the market explains the reason why chaos occurs. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

We present a new two phase model of economic production processes which is a non-linear dynamical version of von Neumann''s neoclassical model of production, including a market price-setting phase as well as a production phase. The rate of an economic production process is observed, for the first time, to depend on the minimum of its input supplies. This creates highly non-linear supply and demand dynamics. By numerical simulation, production networks are shown to become unstable when the ratio of different products to total processes increases. This provides some insight into observed stability of competitive capitalist economies in comparison to monopolistic economies. Capitalist economies are also shown to have low unemployment. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]