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• Cyclicality in aggregate productivity predicts the efficiency of resources reallocation. • Aggregate productivity growth originates from within-plants, allocative efficiency gain, and due to entry and exit. • We exploit the Great Recession to analyse the validity of the 'Cleansing' or 'Scarring' effect of recession and 'Schumpeterian Darwinian Selection' for Indian manufacturing. • The contributions to aggregate productivity growth from within-plant and net-entry effects are procyclical. • Plants in export-oriented industries are crucial in explaining the pro-cyclicality. • The exporting sectors during 2008-09 shifted resources from more productive to less productive plants. • The relatively productive exporters exited the markets following the global crisis, scarring the economy. • The positive contribution from the net-entry exit effect of plants during the economic downturn validates the 'Schumpeterian approach of Darwinian Selection'. Understanding the cyclicality in aggregate productivity helps answer whether the economy allocates resources efficiently or not. The paper analyses the sources of aggregate productivity growth, such as direct efficiency gain within-plants, allocative efficiency gain, and gains due to entry and exit during economic fluctuations. In particular, we exploit the economic shock of the Great Recession to analyse the validity of the 'Cleansing' or 'Scarring' effect of recession and 'Schumpeterian Darwinian Selection' for Indian manufacturing. The rise and fall of within-plant and net-entry effects during the economic fluctuations explains the pro-cyclicality of productivity growth. Plants in export-oriented industries are crucial in explaining the pro-cyclicality. Negative external shock to exporting sectors during 2008–09 shifted resources from more productive to less productive plants. The relatively productive exporters exited the markets following the global crisis, scarring the economy. Nonetheless, the positive effect from the net-entry exit of plants during the economic downturn makes the 'Schumpeterian approach of Darwinian Selection' valid. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper retraces the main research avenues explored by some Keynesian macroeconomists from the mid-1980s to model aggregate fluctuations with strategic complementarities. Starting from the static coordination failure framework we identify the different devices implemented to deal with dynamics in deterministic or stochastic settings. The text examines how the analysis shifted from a multiplicity of equilibria to a multiplicity of steady states or equilibrium paths. From this standpoint, we confront the properties obtained under perfect foresight and alternative expectation formation schemes focussing on disequilibrium adjustments. The article also includes a tentative exploration of the reasons for the decline of this view. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We modify the standard descriptive growth model to incorporate what Keynes (1936) called the "essence" of his general theory. The essence is that exogenous changes in investment cause changes in employment and unemployment. We implement this idea by assuming the path for the capital growth rate is exogenous, which implicitly indicates that the significant fluctuations in investment do not result from rational calculation but rather result from what Keynes labelled "animal spirits." Testing the Keynes hypothesis using post-WWII U.S. data, we find that changes in investment Granger-cause changes in unemployment but the reverse is not supported by the data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Policymakers have been debating for over a decade whether Asia is decoupling from the USA. Increasingly, deepening regional integration is cited as a possible driver of this decoupling. Using large Bayesian Panel Vector Autoregressions, estimated over different subperiods, we jointly examine bilateral macro-financial interdependencies between Asia Pacific countries and between each Asia Pacific country and the USA. We uncover no evidence of decoupling. Instead, we find that both global and regional interdependencies deepened following the Asian financial crisis, before receding after the Global financial crisis. We also show that while US shocks are important, attention should also be devoted to regional shocks which play a large role in Asia Pacific countries across all subperiods considered. Our results also suggest that there have been shifts in the relative importance of different transmission channels over time. Following the Asian financial crisis, as regional interdependencies deepened, US financial shocks began to play a larger role than US macroeconomic shocks. These results support the view that rising intra-regional trade contributed to a fall in the importance of US macroeconomic shocks. They are also consistent with research suggesting that strong, common global financial linkages increase the synchronization of Asian regional business cycles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

John Maynard Keynes's (1936) concept of "animal spirits" or "spontaneous optimism" as a major driving force in business fluctuations was motivated in part by his and his contemporaries' observations of human reactions to ambiguous situations where probabilities couldn't be quantified. We can add that in such ambiguity there is evidence that people let contagious popular narratives and the emotions they generate influence their economic decisions. These narratives are typically remote from factual bases, just contagious. Macroeconomic dynamic models must have a theory that is related to models of the transmission of disease in epidemiology. We need to take the contagion of narratives seriously in economic modeling if we are to improve our understanding of animal spirits and their impact on the economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the impact of sanitary protocols aimed at reducing the contagion by Covid-19 during the production and consumption of goods and services. We augment a heterogeneous SIR model with a two-way feedback between contagion and economic activity, allowing for firm and sector heterogeneity. While protocols are a burden for firms (especially SMEs), they may enhance economic activity by avoiding infections that reduce the labor supply. Using Chilean data, we calibrate the model and assess the impact of recommended firm protocols on contagion and economic activity in the after-lockdown period. Our quantitative results suggest that: (i) A second wave of infections is likely in the absence of protocols; (ii) Protocols targeted at some sectors can reduce deaths while at the same time improving economic conditions; (iii) Protocols applied widely have a negative effect on the economy. We also find that applying strict protocols to a few sectors is generally preferable to applying milder protocols to a larger number of sectors, both in terms of health and economic benefits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present article analyzes the macroeconomic risks identified in the annual consultations of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) issued between 2017 and 2019 on Mexico, which indicated weakness in the national economy to face external shocks. Three documents from the IMF are compared to detect changes during a key period in the country, due to the political and economic alternation of 2018. The risks presented in 2019 by the IMF are then validated with the official reports of the Mexican economic authorities (Banxico, SHCP) and with similar documents from other international organizations (OCDE, World Bank and BBVA), looking for similarities and differences between them. The main findings indicate the existence of signs of Mexican economic weakness, as well as the existence of convergences (low growth, low levels of investment and consumption, and uncertainty about the new fiscal policies) and some divergences (the approach of each organization). Finally, due to the global health and economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, recent reports agree that there is an environment of intrinsic uncertainty present in any economic crisis, as they do not know the start, end and magnitude of the impact that the event will have on the Mexican economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article concludes that the so-called COVID-19 crisis is not an "ecodemic" but the result of the aggravation of a systemic crisis that had been going on, a depressive phase in economic terms that was at least one or two years earlier. The above has a peculiar meaning when it comes to glimpsing possible ways out and discarding a "V" type outcome as several neoliberals already announced. To arrive at such a result, support was sought in the evolution of different indicators resulting from approximations of Marxist categories, both at the level of the central countries of the capitalist system and for Latin America and the particularity of Uruguay. Among them we can point out the rate of surplus value and its components, as well as for the rate of profit in the case of the United States. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We develop an epidemiological approach to analyze how financial contagion may affect and be affected by economic activity. We show that, according to specific parameter values, the economy may converge either to a non-speculative or to a speculative equilibrium: in the former situation the level of per capita income is maximal, while in the latter it is reduced by financial contagion. The presence of economic and financial feedback effects may also give rise to macroeconomic fluctuations during the transitional path, clearly showing that such economic and financial links are an important driver of the short run macroeconomic performance. By extending the analysis to a spatial dimension, we also show that financial contagion in some specific region may propagate quickly also in regions far away from those in which the contagion initially occurs, highlighting the role of regional policy coordination to avoid interregional contagion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article analyzes the processes and contexts of olive growing in San Rafael, Mendoza, from the year 2000 onwards, during the periods of boom, fall and stagnation caused by climate scourges and by structural and current processes related to international, national and local contexts. These processes and their consequences will make it possible to understand the latest transformations in the sector and the possible perspectives of this regional production process, and to improve the knowledge of its tensions and fluctuations. On the basis of the theoretical framework of the regional economies, we consider the fluctuations that the activity undergoes and that depends not only on the environmental features but also on institutional, economic, historical, cultural and social aspects with all the asymmetries involved in the development of each one of them. For this purpose, primary and secondary sources were used, such as legislation related to the activity, interviews with key referents, statistics, scientific articles and journals and local and provincial newspapers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article reveals the necessity of studying the methods of nonlinear economic theory based on the principles of increasing returns to scale, uncertainty and multi-variant development. A theory of economic fluctuations is treated as the structural part of modern nonlinear economic theory. The economic fluctuations are seen as oscillations of the economic system parameters, which can be created both by economic system itself and external environment as well. Changes which occurred due to fluctuations are causing economic system deviations from the level of homeostasis. It is developed econophysic model predicting middle scale-fluctuations, according to which, the daily fluctuations on the stock market scaling more than 30% are expected with 12% probability, the fluctuations of more than 10% per day are expected with 23% probability. Also fluctuations of air emissions that exceed 30% level of previous year level are expected with 13% probability. The article reveals the necessity of studying the methods of nonlinear economic theory based on the principles of increasing returns to scale, uncertainty and multi-variant development. A theory of economic fluctuations is treated as the structural part of modern nonlinear economic theory. The economic fluctuations are seen as oscillations of the economic system parameters, which can be created both by economic system itself and external environment as well. Changes which occurred due to fluctuations are causing economic system deviations from the level of homeostasis. It is showed that the existing empirical models, which are based on Gaussian and Mandelbrot models for developed economies are not reliable to predict medium-scale fluctuations of the national economy. This paper analyses different methods of fluctuations forecasting. It is discussed advantages and disadvantages of such methods as historical simulations, simulation, random walk theory, delta-normal method. It is underlined the need for econophysics methods development in economics and environmental studies. It is developed econophysics model predicting middle scale-fluctuations, according to which, the daily fluctuations on the stock market scaling more than 30% are expected with 12% probability, the fluctuations of more than 10% per day are expected with 23% probability. Also fluctuations of air emissions that exceed 30% level of previous year level are expected with 13% probability. At the same time, the fluctuations on the currency market of more than 30% are expected with 20% probability, and fluctuations of more than 10% expected with a 34% probability. The article states that the models of the normal distribution are less accurate in predicting large-scale fluctuations in comprising with econophysic empirical models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

By applying the contextual valuation method to the analysis of grave goods from the Phoenician cemetery of Tyre-Al Bass, Lebanon, we can isolate the economic fluctuations and social changes experienced by the Tyrian population during the 8th century BC. Based on the evidence, the mid-9th to the mid-8th century BC was a period of prosperity, with the most pronounced economic boom between 775-750 BC. In contrast, the second half of the 8th century BC shows a sharp economic crisis associated with a high level of social conflict. These results are fully consistent with the historical events known through ancient literary sources. This new example confirms the universality of this methodology and its irrefutable scientific validity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

By applying the contextual valuation method to the analysis of the mortuary record in the Balsas River basin, Mexico, we can isolate the prehispanic economic fluctuations and social changes encoded in the composition of grave goods. Among the relevant results obtained, highlights that the collapse of ancient Mesoamerican civilizations (Teotihuacan, Monte Alban and the Maya Classic) appears perfectly reflected in the offerings of Late Classic burials. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Gaul cemetery at Vaugrignon-- Esvres-sur-Indre, France--sheds light on the economic fluctuations and social changes in the territory of the Turoni and the rest of Gaul immediately before and after the Roman conquest, between the late second and late first centuries BC. Coins, whose system is perfectly isolable, also show the oscillations of their monetary economy, highlighting devaluations, revaluations or inflationary situations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fluctuations evidenced by the mortuary record of Greek Ampurias or Emporion (Gerona, Spain) show a complete economic connection with the archaic Iberian civilization throughout the fifth century BC. This is manifested by the successive expansion and retraction stages corresponding to the first and the second half (Iberian crisis) of this century. Both constitute the economic cycle of the archaic Iberian civilization (c. 500-400). Additionally, in the Ampurias of the second half of the fifth century BC a circumstance occurs similar to those observed at Castulo (Jaén) and Cabezo Lucero (Alicante) during the third quarter of that century. This is a conflict characterized by a higher impoverishment associated with a marked increase in social differentiation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Kuwait has a historic target of "Vision 2035". Under this vision, Kuwaiti government implements a development plan covering 2010-2014 period. Other development plans will follow the current plan until 2035. Two major targets of this historic development project are to increase the role of provide sector in the economy and to diversify the economy. Achieving these two targets will improve the efficiency and competitiveness of the economy and therefore will raise the economic welfare of future generations. The current development plan includes many important projects such as a new business hub (Silk City), a major harbor with its causeway, a railway and metro system, health and education projects, and new oil production facilities. Kuwait has very high domestic saving rate and current account surplus. Therefore, Kuwait has necessary financial funds to realize the targeted development project. If current economy-politic support and domestic political stability are maintained, it will be possible to achieve the targets of Vision 2035. The purpose of this paper is to analyze current structure of the Kuwaiti economy using major macroeconomic variables. Oil and natural gas constitute approximately half of gross domestic product. Kuwait has very low inflation and unemployment rates. However, dependence on energy resources and open economy together make Kuwaiti economy vulnerable against global economic fluctuations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The chronological review of the southeast necropolis from Baelo Claudia (Bolonia-Tarifa, Cadiz) and the Can Fanals cemetery in Pollentia (Alcudia, Majorca), has expanded the understanding of economic fluctuations in Roman Spain during the first and second centuries AD, and of social changes associated with them. A further confirmation of the impact of Tiberius' crisis has been obtained from the mortuary record of Baelo Claudia and Pollentia, previously detected in Emporiae (Ampurias, Gerona). The prosperity of Claudius' reign is more apparent in Baelo Claudia than in Emporiae. Coincidence in economic evolution breaks throughout the second half of the first century AD, in particular during the period between Nero and the early Flavians. Then, compared with a decadent Ampurias, a thriving Pollentia follows in the footsteps of an opulent Baelo showing its greatest prosperity. However, these three cities of Roman Spain maintained a common bond based on the display of maximum social complexity during that period. There is always a direct proportion between the economic accumulation amortized in grave goods and the differentiation between individuals, except for two cases. One, already known, refers to the Ampurias of the second half of the first century AD, where the impoverishment that characterizes this period is associated with a increase of social distance. The other is the strange phenomenon documented in Pollentia during the second century AD. Here, funerary expenditure continues growing but social differentiation falls along the first half until abruptly descending in the second half of this century. At this point, the most important thing is to have detected the same trend of social differentiation in Emporiae, Baelo Claudia and Pollentia from the time of Tiberius to the first half of the second century AD, at least. As for the monetary economy, singular events have been isolated, such as the revaluation of the second half of the first century AD in Pollentia, before documented in Emporiae, or the devaluation of Commodus' reign evidenced in Pollentia during the second half of the second century AD. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Following the broad outlines of , we develop a simple non-convex Keynesian macroeconomic model. It has two stable short-run equilibria, achieved by expectations adjustment; shifting curves in the medium run can cause a jump from high employment equilibrium to stagnation. Such a leap can arise from endogenous declines in the demand/debt ratio occurring after persistent periods of high employment (cf. ). We thus provide an explanation of the U.S. economy “falling off a cliff” – perhaps as seen during 2007–2009 – as being due to the “Great Moderation” of 1985–2006; this interpretation is made more plausible by reference to empirical data. The model also allows for milder fluctuations. The model''s asymmetries suggest the need for “pump-priming” by policy-makers to allow recovery after a steep recession. We use a synthesis of the rational and adaptive theories of expectation determination. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This study examines the impact of unemployment on suicide rates in Taiwan and Hong Kong during the period of rising unemployment (1997–2003) and its subsequent decline (2003–2007), with 2003 as the turning point. During these initial years of high unemployment, suicide rates increased markedly in Hong Kong and Taiwan; however, as employment conditions improved, suicide rates fell in Hong Kong but continued to increase in Taiwan. ARMAX time-series models with appropriate time lags were used to assess the impact of unemployment on suicide rates for both periods. It was found that for Taiwan, the unemployment rate was positively related with the suicide rate for both males and females during the period of high unemployment, whereas a negative relationship was observed as the rate of unemployment decreased. On the other hand, the reduction in suicide rates since 2003 was not statistically significantly related to the improvement of employment conditions for Hong Kong; whereas the suicide rate in Taiwan still remained at a high level due to the increasing number of charcoal burning suicide deaths despite improvements in employment conditions. In conclusion, lower unemployment was not necessarily associated with lower suicide rates. Exogenous factors other than economic ones have been suggested to be important for understanding differences in suicide patterns in Hong Kong and Taiwan. The impact of employment conditions on suicide across different countries deserves further investigation. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper proposes a simple prototype model that describes the complex dynamics of a sophisticated monetary economy. The interaction between the current and intertemporal financial constraints on economic units brings about irregular fluctuations at both micro and macro levels. We use qualitative dynamic analysis and numerical simulations to investigate the interaction between financial fragility, modeled in terms of structural instability, and dynamically unstable financial fluctuations. The model, suggested recently by one of the authors, is here reformulated in more operational terms and extended in a number of new directions. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: In this paper, we reconstruct the complex itinerary towards the solution of a conceptual and mathematical problem, how to obtain growth and fluctuations in a framework where structural change is an endogenous, though intermittent, phenomenon and irregularity a natural dynamic property. This has been Goodwin''s life-long research program, driven by the effort of marrying Poincaré''s qualitative approach to dynamical systems with the earliest (and some of the later) attempts to formalise economic structure as a set of interacting economic units, i.e. the cells of the modern cellular dynamics. This eventually led him to computational dynamics. Our interpretation integrates the more conventional one that emphasises conceptual connections with the thoughts of Marx, Schumpeter and Keynes. Focussing upon modelling issues of an apparently pure technical nature permits a comparison of Goodwin''s evolving views with those that have emerged more recently in dynamics, e.g. in the real business cycle and endogenous theories of growth. In a brief assessment towards the end of the paper, it is argued that while there is still much to be done along the path he chose, Goodwin left enough indications for us to know in which direction to go. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Self-Organised Criticality (SOC) is a concept developed over the last decade from dynamic systems analysis that aims to investigate the transition trajectories of evolutionary systems. The main emphasis in SOC is on the analysis of the impact of slow exogenous forces in combination with strong localised interactions between single elements or components of the systems concerned, with particular regard to the attainment of a critical state at the macro-level. Against this background, SOC serves to identify the critical conditions from the internal dynamics of the systems that lead to major and significant transformations of their behaviour. The present paper aims to offer insights and reflections originating from the SOC concept, as well as to explore its potential contribution to understanding the evolution of regional economic patterns, in particular the functioning of regional labour markets. In our study, the evolutionary dynamics of employment at a district level in West Germany as well as in the combined West and East German setting will be investigated, in order to detect the possible existence of a power law distribution of growth rates, which may be seen as an indication for SOC at the macro-economic level. In this context, SOC may help to explain the presence of large socio-economic regional fluctuations in a country, and, in general, the dynamics inherent to regional development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]