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Incoherent diffractive imaging (IDI) promises structural analysis with atomic resolution based on intensity interferometry of pulsed X‐ray fluorescence emission. However, its experimental realization is still pending and a comprehensive theory of contrast formation has not been established to date. Explicit expressions are derived for the equal‐pulse two‐point intensity correlations, as the principal measured quantity of IDI, with full control of the prefactors, based on a simple model of stochastic fluorescence emission. The model considers the photon detection statistics, the finite temporal coherence of the individual emissions, as well as the geometry of the scattering volume. The implications are interpreted in view of the most relevant quantities, including the fluorescence lifetime, the excitation pulse, as well as the extent of the scattering volume and pixel size. Importantly, the spatiotemporal overlap between any two emissions in the sample can be identified as a crucial factor limiting the contrast and its dependency on the sample size can be derived. The paper gives rigorous estimates for the optimum sample size, the maximum photon yield and the expected signal‐to‐noise ratio under optimal conditions. Based on these estimates, the feasibility of IDI experiments for plausible experimental parameters is discussed. It is shown in particular that the mean number of photons per detector pixel which can be achieved with X‐ray fluorescence is severely limited and as a consequence imposes restrictive constraints on possible applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]