Search

With the rise of artificial intelligence in safety-critical systems like surface transportation, there is a commensurate need for new hazard analysis approaches to determine if and how AI contributes to accidents, which are also increasing in number and severity. The original Swiss Cheese model widely used for hazard analyses focuses uniquely on human activities that lead to accidents, but cannot address accidents where AI is a possible causal factor. To this end, the Taxonomy for AI Hazard Analysis (TAIHA) is proposed that introduces layers focusing on the oversight, design, maintenance, and testing of AI. TAIHA is illustrated with real-world accidents. TAIHA does not replace the traditional Swiss Cheese model, which should be used in concert when a joint human-AI system exists, such as when people are driving a car with AI-based advanced driving assist features. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolysis is a promising technology for clean hydrogen production. To support safe deployments of PEM electrolyzers, we performed a failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) on a lab-scale PEM electrolyzer to identify risk-significant scenarios. We identified 20 failure scenarios leading to a hydrogen release, 46 for an oxygen release, and 67 for hydrogen and oxygen mixing. Hydrogen fires or the collection of hydrogen and oxygen gas poses risk to facility personnel and surrounding equipment. The gas-water separators, pump supplying water to the electrolyzer stack, and electrolyzer stack were found to contribute to the most high-risk scenarios. Identifying these scenarios enables the mitigation of issues seen in early deployments and is a step toward a complete Quantitative Risk Assessment. The results provide a technical basis to support risk-informed safe and reliable deployment and operation of electrolyzer technologies by enabling development of safety plans, design, and operational strategies. • Conducted a FMEA on a lab-scale PEM electrolyzer • Provided 133 failure scenarios leading to H2 release, O2 release, or H2–O2 mixing • Determined the system components that contributed to the most high-risk scenarios • Provided mitigation measures for risk reduction of PEM electrolyzers [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The selection and scaling of ground motion records is considered a primary and essential task in performing structural analysis and design. Conventional methods involve using ground motion models and a conditional spectrum to select ground motion records based on the target spectrum. This research demonstrates the influence of adopting different weighted factors for various period ranges during matching selected ground motions with the target hazard spectrum. The event data from the Next Generation Attenuation West 2 (NGA-West 2) database is used as the basis for ground motion selection, and hazard de-aggregation is conducted to estimate the event parameters of interest, which are then used to construct the target intensity measure (IM). The target IMs are then used to select ground motion records with different weighted vector-valued objective functions. The weights are altered to account for the relative importance of IM in accordance with the structural analysis application of steel moment resisting frame (SMRF) buildings. Instead of an ordinary objective function for the matching spectrum, a novel model is introduced and compared with the conventional cost function. The results indicate that when applying the new cost function for ground motion selection, it places higher demands on structures compared to the conventional cost function. Moreover, submitting more weights to the first-mode period of structures increases engineering demand parameters. Findings demonstrate that weight factors allocated to different period ranges can successfully account for period elongation and higher mode effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this research, the deformation pattern of Alborz is investigated using a combination of data from the new permanent GPS networks that belong to State Organization for Registration of Deeds and Properties (SHAMIM) and Tehran Municipality (SAMT), the new temporary IASBS_NCC network and the permanent and temporary stations of the National Cartographic Organization. The addition of the 27 new GPS stations has improved the obtained velocity field, which shows that the active deformation happens across the entire width of Alborz from south to north by several faults and active fault zones. Contrary to the common belief about the strain partitioning in the Alborz Mountains between the strike-slip faults in the southern flank of the Alborz and along the compressional south-dipping Khazar fault in the northern flank of the Alborz, the new velocity field indicates a spread of strike-slip and compressional movements along different faults across the width of the Alborz. In previous works, due to the lack of GPS stations between the Khazar fault and other active faults in the northern flank of the Alborz (e.g. North Alborz fault), all the observed deformation in the northern flank of the Alborz has been associated with the Khazar fault. In the improved velocity field, the presence of a new GPS vector between the North Alborz and the Khazar fault in the eastern part of the Alborz indicates a dominant role of the North Alborz fault in the strain accommodation once compared to the Khazar fault. Like the previous works, the new velocity field shows a lower total strain for the western Alborz, which is consistent with the lower observed seismicity in the western Alborz. The new velocity field indicates an active extensional system in the western Alborz in a longitude range of 49o to 50.5o around the Tarom Valley. The extensional system might be related to the counterclock wise rotation of the South Caspian Basin relative to Eurasia. The improved velocity field shows a noticeable strike-slip motion of 2 mm/yr at the northern edge of Central Iran which could be related to the Aran-Torud fault zone and Attari fault. There is also a shortening rate of ~2 mm/yr between the northern edge of Central Iran and the Eastern Alborz which could be related to the salt tectonic within the Great Kavir fault. The improved velocity field shows a right-lateral strike-slip motion of ~1 mm/yr across the Indes and Kushk-Nosrat faults. Despite the observed large seismic activity and a geological slip rate of 2 mm/yr for the eastern part of the Mosha fault, both strike-slip and compressional slip rates along the Mosha fault are less than 1 mm/yr. Within a radius of ~50 km from the center of Tehran metropolitan area, there is no noticeable rate of strike-slip or compressional movement and the strain rate is around the error limit or less than 1 mm/yr. The low strain rate implies a very long earthquake return period for large earthquakes in Tehran metropolitan area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Prevention and early intervention of alcohol use disorder (AUD) is a public health priority, yet there are gaps in our understanding of how AUD emerges, which symptoms of AUD come first, and whether there are modifiable risk factors that forecast the development of the disorder. This study investigated potential early‐warning‐sign symptoms for the development of AUD. Methods: Data were from the RADAR study, a prospective cohort study of contemporary emerging adults across Australia (n = 565, mean age = 18.9, range = 18–21 at baseline, 48% female). Participants were interviewed five times across a 2.5‐year period. Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fifth Edition (DSM‐5) AUD criteria and diagnoses were assessed by clinical psychologists using the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM‐IV (SCID‐IV), modified to cover DSM‐5 criteria. Hazard analyses modeled the time from first alcoholic drink to the emergence of any AUD criteria and determined which first‐emergent AUD criteria were associated with a faster transition to disorder. Results: By the final time point, 54.8% of the sample had experienced at least one DSM‐5 AUD criterion and 26.1% met criteria for DSM‐5 AUD. The median time from first AUD criterion to a diagnosis of AUD was 4 years. Social problems from drinking (hazard ratio [HR] = 3.24, CI95 = 2.14, 4.92, p < 0.001), major role (HR = 2.53, CI95 = 1.58, 4.06, p < 0.001), and drinking larger amounts/for longer than intended (HR = 2.04, CI95 = 1.20, 3.46, p = 0.008) were first‐onset criteria associated with a faster transition to AUD. Conclusion: In the context of a prospective general population cohort study of the temporal development of AUD, alcohol‐related social problems, major role problems, and using more or for longer than intended are key risk factors that may be targeted for early intervention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: The preparedness of Emergency Medical Services (EMS) plays a crucial role in managing health disaster risks. This study was conducted to assess the disaster preparedness of EMS facilities in Iran, using a nationally reliable tool. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted in May 2021 to evaluate the disaster preparedness of EMS facilities in Iran using a national standard tool. The census sampling approach was utilized to select the samples, and descriptive statistics, as well as analytical statistics like the independent t-test and Pearson's correlation test, were used to analyze the data using SPSS-18 software. Results: The findings of this study revealed that the majority of EMS facilities in Iran possess a moderate level of preparedness in dealing with disasters. Also, the results indicate that EMS facilities have an average level of preparedness against disasters in all dimensions except for "coordination and cooperation" and "surge capacity". Conclusion: According to this study, the majority of EMS facilities in Iran are exposed to different disasters. Furthermore, the findings indicate that while EMS facilities are generally prepared to respond to disasters at an average level, there are some important preparedness gaps in dimensions like response capacities, coordination, and cooperation. Thus, specific strategies, standards, and procedures must be developed and disseminated by the National Medical Emergency Organization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Weather and climate disasters are responsible for over 13 000 US deaths, worsened morbidity, and $1.7 trillion in additional costs over the last 40 years with profound racial disparities. Objectives: This project empirically generated items for a novel survey instrument of household hazard vulnerability with initial construct validation while addressing racial bias in the data collection process. Methods: Cognitive interviews facilitated understanding regarding the performance of drafted survey questions with transdisciplinary expert panelists from diverse US regions on unique hazard/disaster/event items. To prevent representation bias in data collection, those with Black and/or African American racial, biracial, or multiracial identities were over-sampled. Interview video recordings were qualitatively analyzed using thematic and pattern coding. Results: A cognitive process mapped to themes of disaster characteristics, resources, individual life facets, and felt effects was revealed. We identified 379 unique instances of linked terms as synonyms, co-occurring, compounding, or cascading events. Potential for racial bias in data collection was elucidated. Analysis of radiation exposure, trauma, and criminal acts of intent items revealed participants may not interpret survey items with these terms as intended. Conclusion: Potential for racial bias exists relative to water dam failure, evacuation, external flood, suspicious packages/substances, and transportation failure. Hazard terms that were not interpreted as intended require further revision in the validation process of individual or household disaster vulnerability assessments. Several commonalities in the cognitive process and mapping of disaster terms may be utilized in disaster and climate change research aimed at the individual and household unit of analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The correct estimation of seismic hazards is a touchstone of seismic risk assessments. However, there is no quantitative or standard methodology to include the impacts of geological (i.e., seismo-tectonic) features of active faults or fault zones, and current classification schemes are not useful in hazard evaluations. Therefore, an attempt has been made to develop a methodology that integrates seismo-tectonic parameters of active faults to better inform urban and regional planning decisions. Fault rating system (FRS) provides a comparative review of faults/fault zones using a rating-based approach. In this approach, seven seismo-tectonic parameters are used to classify the fault/fault zone. Each of the seven parameters is assigned a value corresponding to the seismo-tectonic characteristics. The sum of the seven seismo-tectonic parameters is the fault index (FI) value, which lies in the range 0–100. A total of 64 important faults/fault zones were statistically analyzed to determine the best correlations with FI and moment magnitude (Mw) and peak ground acceleration (PGA). It was found that the FI values provide strong correlations with maximum Mw and PGA. It is proposed urban and regional planners use FRS to ensure a consistent approach in characterizing key aspects of active faults in earthquake-prone regions and in estimating ground motion parameters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is causing glaciers in the Himalayas to recede and shrink. The changing climate is the primary trigger of the expansion of glacial lakes that increases the possibilities of outburst floods (GLOFs) and leads to quantifiable losses such as mortality and damage to populations and infrastructure downstream. Therefore, determining the hazard related to the glacier lakes of the Himalayan region is essential. We have developed an approach named SHIVEK, consisting of the SWIR band thresholding technique and hazard analysis to estimate the possible downstream risk along the GLOF flow path. We examined the spatiotemporal expansion of Imja Lake from 1997 to 2020 using Landsat 5, 7, and 8 data. We employed an automated form of the previously described method based on SWIR band thresholding. The study creates yearly composites from June to September using pre-processed Landsat imageries using a cloud-based platform Google Earth Engine. Our results show a continuous expansion in the geographical area of Imja Lake from 0.81 to 1.56 km2 in 23 years between 1997 and 2020, averaging nearly 0.032 km2 per year. Also, the lake's area between 2012 and 2020 expanded by 0.26 km2. The overall accuracy of 88.96 ± 6.93% has been achieved for spatiotemporal maps of Imja Lake and intensified confidence in the approach. This study estimates a total of 645 buildings and four bridges that can be impacted due to the outburst of Imja Lake. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Landslides are an example of severe natural disasters that occur worldwide and generate many harmful effects that can affect the stability and development of society. A better-quality susceptibility mapping technique for the landslide risk is crucial for mitigating landslides. However, the use of assemblages of multivariate statistical methods is still uncommon in Indonesia, particularly in the Kepahiang Regency of Bengkulu Province. Therefore, the objective of this study was to provide an improved framework for creating landslide susceptibility map (LSM) using multivariate statistical methods, i.e., the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) method, the simple additive weighting (SAW) method and the frequency ratio (FR) method. In this study, we established a landslide inventory considering 15 causative factors using the area under the curve (AUC) validation method and another evaluation technique. The performance of each causative factor was evaluated using multicollinearity and Pearson correlation analysis with regression-based ranking. The LSM results showed that the most susceptible areas were located in the districts of Kabawetan, Kepahiang, and Tebat Karai. The high landslide risk in these areas could be attributed to the slope conditions in mountainous regions, which are characterized by high annual rainfall and seismic activity. The AUC training values of the AHP, SAW, and FR methods were 0.866, 0.838, and 0.812, respectively. Then, on the validation dataset, the AHP method yielded the highest AUC value (0.863), followed by the SAW (0.833) and FR (0.807) methods. Moreover, the AHP method provided a higher accuracy value, which suggests that the AHP method is more suitable than the other methods. Therefore, our research indicated that all algorithm methods generate a positive impact and greatly improve landslide susceptibility evaluation, especially for the preparation of landslide damage assessments in this study area. Finally, the method proposed in this study could improve the feasibility of LSM and provide support for Indonesian government decision-makers in arranging hazard mitigation measures in the Kepahiang Regency, Indonesia. Key points: In this paper, we present a framework for assembling multivariate statistical methods and developing landslide susceptibility mapping of Kepahiang, Bengkulu Province, Indonesia. The analytical hierarchy process provides the highest landslide susceptibility mapping accuracy and the lowest uncertainties in the study region. Slope, rainfall, and peak ground acceleration are the most essential spatial determinants of the changes in Kepahiang, Bengkulu Province, Indonesia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research aimed to investigate the levels of heavy metals (lead, cadmium, inorganic arsenic, and aluminium) and nitrate contaminants in pickle beverages sold in the Turkey market produced from various fruits and vegetables. In addition, carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic risk assessments of exposure resulting from oral consumption of these beverages have also been made. The heavy metal concentrations in 22 pickle beverages were found to be in the range of 0.369 to 119.181 for Al, 0.136 to 6.561 for iAs, 0.020 to 1.326 for Cd, and 0.118 to 3.632 µg/L for Pb, while the nitrate concentrations were < limits of detection (LOD) 117.320 mg/L. Hazard quotient values for heavy metals and nitrate are calculated as <1 in both genders and are safe regarding noncarcinogenic risks. Lifetime carcinogenic risk assessment indicated that some pickle beverages might pose a carcinogenic risk at grade A (>10−4) for iAs and grade B (10−6–10−4) for Pb in both genders. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Indonesian fishing industry developed by 1.4% in 2020, compared to the previous year, as shown by the existence of around 773 seafood factories. Such growth caused the emergence of different working conditions due to the use of complex machines. In 2019, the industrialization process generated an immense potential for accidents on occupational health as the mishaps increased from 60 to 270 cases. For this reason, this study aimed to identify the value and level of risk, using HIRARC (Hazard Identification Risk Assessment and Risk Control) following AS/NZS 4360:2004 standards. The study was conducted at the fish meatball company located in East Java, for six months. The results showed that the company could manage the occupational health and safety, as indicated by the reduction of the levels of risk from acceptable (33.4%), priority 3 (14.3%), priority 2 risk (38.1%), priority 1 risk (9.5%), and very high risk (4.8%) to acceptable (76%) and priority 3 (24%). The risk assessment matrix had shifted from yellow (moderate) to green (low). Some recommendations implemented in the workplace included creating a safety organization, organizing training sessions among employees, fostering a safety culture, applying ergonomic principles, and controlling work hours. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Upgrading the existing analog instrumentation and control (I&C) systems to state-of-the-art digital I&C (DI&C) systems will greatly benefit existing light water reactors. However, the issue of software common cause failure (CCF) remains an obstacle in terms of qualification for digital technologies. Existing analyses of CCFs in I&C systems mainly focus on hardware failures. With the application and upgrading of new DI&C systems, design flaws could cause software CCFs to become a potential threat to plant safety, considering that most redundancy designs use similar digital platforms or software in their operating and application systems. With complex multilayer redundancy designs to meet the single failure criterion, these I&C safety systems are of particular concern in U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission licensing procedures. In Fiscal Year 2019, the Risk-Informed Systems Analysis (RISA) Pathway of the U.S. Department of Energy's Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program initiated a project to develop a risk assessment strategy for delivering a strong technical basis to support effective, licensable, and secure DI&C technologies for digital upgrades and designs. An integrated risk assessment for the DI&C process was proposed for this strategy to identify potential key digital-induced failures, implement reliability analyses of related digital safety I&C systems, and evaluate the unanalyzed sequences introduced by these failures (particularly software CCFs) at the plant level. This paper summarizes these RISA efforts in the risk analysis of safety-related DI&C systems at Idaho National Laboratory. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Landslides are an example of severe natural disasters that occur worldwide and generate many harmful effects that can affect the stability and development of society. A better-quality susceptibility mapping technique for the landslide risk is crucial for mitigating landslides. However, the use of assemblages of multivariate statistical methods is still uncommon in Indonesia, particularly in the Kepahiang Regency of Bengkulu Province. Therefore, the objective of this study was to provide an improved framework for creating landslide susceptibility map (LSM) using multivariate statistical methods, i.e., the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) method, the simple additive weighting (SAW) method and the frequency ratio (FR) method. In this study, we established a landslide inventory considering 15 causative factors using the area under the curve (AUC) validation method and another evaluation technique. The performance of each causative factor was evaluated using multicollinearity and Pearson correlation analysis with regression-based ranking. The LSM results showed that the most susceptible areas were located in the districts of Kabawetan, Kepahiang, and Tebat Karai. The high landslide risk in these areas could be attributed to the slope conditions in mountainous regions, which are characterized by high annual rainfall and seismic activity. The AUC training values of the AHP, SAW, and FR methods were 0.866, 0.838, and 0.812, respectively. Then, on the validation dataset, the AHP method yielded the highest AUC value (0.863), followed by the SAW (0.833) and FR (0.807) methods. Moreover, the AHP method provided a higher accuracy value, which suggests that the AHP method is more suitable than the other methods. Therefore, our research indicated that all algorithm methods generate a positive impact and greatly improve landslide susceptibility evaluation, especially for the preparation of landslide damage assessments in this study area. Finally, the method proposed in this study could improve the feasibility of LSM and provide support for Indonesian government decision-makers in arranging hazard mitigation measures in the Kepahiang Regency, Indonesia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fire and explosion hazards present a serious concern to the widespread adoption of battery technology. This work experimentally investigates the explosion hazards associated with synthesized lithium-ion battery thermal runaway effluent gases (TREG) in an enclosed garage space typical of modern construction in North America. Pressure rise inside the compartment is examined using high-frequency piezoelectric pressure transducers. Data on overpressure and impulse is compared with known ranges for structural damage and bodily injury thresholds and calculation methods for maximum overpressure. Data on time-resolved overpressure are compared with a vented explosion model from literature. These comparisons support that existing models for maximum overpressure and time-resolved pressure rise remain valid for the examined synthesized TREG. Correlations are developed between gas volume and measured impulse and overpressure. An extension of this analysis with values of TREG production from literature supports that pressures measured in these experiments can be generated from ignition of gases released from batteries sized in the range of 3300 W ⋅ h to 80 500 W ⋅ h. [Display omitted] • Measured overpressure from simulated TREG deflagration in residential garage. • Suitability of existing explosion hazard analysis models for TREG examined. • Existing pressure-impulse damage correlations amended with new garage construction. • Roll-up style garage doors vented TREG deflagrations at overpressures below 3 kPa. • Correlations between gas volume and internal compartment overpressure created. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper addresses the challenge of dispersed accident-related information on construction sites, which hinders consensus among employers, workers, supervisors, and society. A robust NLP-based framework is presented to analyze and structure accident-related textual data into a comprehensive knowledge base that reveals accident patterns and risk information. Accident scenarios, including frequency and severity scores, are structured into a graph database through knowledge modeling, establishing an ontology to elucidate keyword relationships. Network analysis identifies accident patterns, quantifies scenario likelihood and severity, and predicts criticality, forming an accident hazard ontology. This vectorized ontology supports accident tracking, prediction, and learning with potential applications. The framework ensures reliable data integration, real-time hazard assessment, and proactive safety measures. • Propose a groundbreaking intelligent ontology to evaluate accident risks on construction sites, setting a new standard. • Use NLP to analyze accident-related data systematically, identifying patterns and attributes linked to accidents. • Capture accident probability, severity, and comprehensive risk assessments, consolidating them into a graph database. • Convert accident information into a graphical format to improve decision-making and risk management in construction. • Establish a human- and machine-readable knowledge system for better safety management and decision support in construction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Proposal of a methodology for enchasing an STPA hazard analysis. • Easy and quick generation of loss scenarios and safety specifications. • Faster completion of the Steps 3 and 4 of STPA hazard analysis. • Issues arising from the usage of ChatGPT-4. This paper investigates the usefulness of LLM, such as GPT4 from OpenAI, in applying the STPA hazard analysis in socio-technical systems. This was achieved by recreating the process of STPA on a verified analysis applied to the ROLFER search and rescue drone system. Firstly, the system was discussed in detail with the LLM, defining its purpose, goals, components, and operations. Then, the LLM was talked through the steps of STPA and prompted to generate UCAs, loss scenarios, and safety specifications. These outputs were compared with those from the human safety team that applied STPA to the same system. The team discovered that LLM can be beneficial in certain aspects, such as loss scenario and safety specification generation and helping the researchers to reach a better understanding of the system, but have drawbacks in others, such as the generation of UCAs and being used as a verification tool of the STPA results of the human analysts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Transition to non-employment is prevalent for women in the Egyptian labor market, particularly those working in the private sector. This paper analyzes women's labor market transitions, particularly to non-employment and to other labor market states in the time around marriage and childbirth. We test whether individual characteristics, work characteristics, or agency affect women's transitions. Specifically, the paper answers three main questions: First, what are the explanatory factors for the women's transition to non-employment? Second, what are the differences between the effect of previous job characteristics and women's agency on the employment decision? Third, what are the determinants of the transition to other labor market states (multiple employment decisions)? Drawing on panel and retrospective data from the 2012 and 2018 waves of Egypt's Labor Market Panel Survey, we estimate these relationships using a single risk model and a competing risk model. Results show that marriage and motherhood increase women's transition to non-employment. The timing of the transition happens at marriage and the year before marriage (anticipation effect). This impact is more considerable for women working in the private sector than the public sector. Women working in non-wage work transition to private wage work in the years before marriage. The results show that the sector of employment plays a crucial role in women's transition to non-employment. In addition, the availability of external help in the household is considered an important factor that can help retain women in the labor force. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Empirical studies of analyst behaviour in hazard analysis are non-existent. • Demonstrate a clear and relevant observation protocol for assessment of hazard analysts' behaviour. • Expert hazard teams recognised the value of an observation protocol for self-assessment of behaviour and team processes. • Enables systematic empirical studies of analysts' behaviour and team processes. • An observation protocol for documenting the quality of the Hazard analysis process as well as supporting analyst professional development. Analyst behaviour and team processes are important factors in the quality of expert-driven hazard-analysis techniques and methods, such as HAZOP (Hazard and Operability Analysis) and STPA (System-Theoretic Process Analysis). Beyond the support provided by the analysis method, the literature suggests, for example, that facilitating creativity, awareness of human judgement limitations, and consistency of method application can substantially impact the completeness and outcome of the analysis. However, empirical research on these factors and their effect on hazard analysis is almost nonexistent. To address this gap, we (the authors) have developed an observation protocol consisting of 27 items on analyst behaviour and team processes. We developed the protocol based on a literature review and analyst interviews, utilising methods frequently employed to develop psychological tests. Two studies, with the participation of four analysts in each, found sufficient clarity and relevance of the protocol items and identified refinements and adjustments to the protocol. The analysts stated the protocol would be useful for analyst team self-evaluation in addition to its use in empirical studies. Future studies should verify our findings and could utilise the protocol in systematic studies of analyst behaviour and how it impacts the hazard analysis and the analysis outcome. Analyst teams could use the protocol for self-assessment in their professional development and as an indicator of the quality of their team processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Designing and implementing processing procedures for producing safe complementary foods in dynamic and unregulated food systems where common food staples are frequently contaminated with mycotoxins is challenging. This paper presents lessons about minimizing aflatoxins (AF) in groundnut flour and AF and/or fumonisins (FUM) in maize and groundnut pre-blended flour for complementary feeding in the context of a dietary research intervention in rural Tanzania. The flours were processed in collaboration with Halisi Products Limited (Halisi), a medium scale enterprise with experience in milling cereal-based flours in Arusha, Tanzania. Using a hazard analysis critical control point (HACCP) approach for quality assurance, two critical control points (CCPs) for AF in processing the pre-blended flour were identified: 1) screening maize before procurement, and 2) blending during the processing of each constituent flour. Blending of maize flour was also identified as a CCP for FUM. Visual inspection during screening and sorting were identified as important control measures for reducing AF, but these steps did not meet the criteria for a CCP due to lack of objective measurement and verifiable standards for AF. The HACCP approach enabled the production of low AF (<5 μg/kg) and FUM (<2 μg/g) flours with low rejection rates for the final products. The paper presents practical lessons that could be of value to a range of commercial processors in similar low- and middle-income contexts who are keen on improving food quality. • Processing complementary foods to reduce mycotoxins is challenging. • Screening maize and blending flours were identified as critical control points for aflatoxins. • Blending of maize flour was identified a critical control point for fumonisins. • Sourcing of groundnuts from individual farmers provided better quality groundnuts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This work formulates the hazard prediction problem while addressing the research question: Can machine learning create a model to automatically recognize patterns that correspond to hazard state conditions during a mission-critical operation? Supervised learning models were trained and tested on data observed from mission simulators, which allowed for safe observation of dynamic system states and undesirable casualty events. The prediction task was formulated as a binary classification problem, producing the probability of being in a hazard state at time t and providing situational awareness of a possible imminent loss. Several modeling architectures were investigated: neural networks, logistic regression, a support vector machine (SVM), and random forest models. The models were tuned, trained, evaluated using K-fold cross validation, and compared across a range of metrics to assess prediction quality. Computation time for training convergence and propensity for over-fitting were assessed across model architectures. Results showed that hazard states, without pre-specification, are predictable from limited system state data, enabling the possibility for real-time anticipation and loss avoidance. • We formulate the hazard prediction problem to recognize precarious conditions. • Modeling is anchored in an established theoretical framework from safety science. • Hazard state labels are derived using a novel back-labeling algorithm. • Generalizations to robotic surgery, semiconductor manufacturing, transportation, etc. • Machine learning from simulated data for rare and undesirable events is discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The efficacy and high specificity of the RNA interference pathway has prompted its exploration as a potential molecular management tool for many insect pests, including the destructive southern pine beetle, Dendroctonus frontalis Zimmermann, in which gene knockdown and mortality via double-stranded RNAs (dsRNAs) have already been demonstrated in the laboratory. The nucleotide sequence of dsRNAs requires an exact match of at least 16 nucleotides with the targeted messenger RNA to trigger knockdown of that gene. This allows vital genes in a target pest to be silenced and mortality induced while reducing the probability of adverse effects in nontarget organisms. However, prior to utilization in forest ecosystems, demonstration of the specificity of dsRNAs through laboratory bioassays evaluating potential nontarget effects on model insects is required for proper risk assessment analyses. Consequently, we evaluated three SPB-specific dsRNAs for lethal effects, sublethal effects (larval growth rate, adult emergence or adult fecundity), and relative gene expression in three model nontarget insects representing key functional guilds, including a predator, herbivore, and pollinator. The SPB-specific dsRNAs had no effect on survival of our nontarget insects. Additionally, no sublethal effects were found and the gene expression analyses corroborated bioinformatic analyses in finding no gene knockdown. Our findings support the high specificity of RNAi technology and provide support for its development and deployment for protection of conifer forests against SPB with minimal nontarget concerns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Digital instrumentation and control (I&C) upgrades are a vital research area for the nuclear industry. Despite their performance benefits, deployment of digital I&C in nuclear power plants (NPPs) has been limited. Digital I&C systems exhibit complex failure modes including common cause failures (CCFs), which can be difficult to identify. This paper describes the development of a redundancy-guided application of the Systems-Theoretic Process Analysis and fault tree analysis for the hazard analysis of digital I&C in advanced NPPs. The resulting Redundancy-Guided Systems-Theoretic Hazard Analysis (RESHA) is applied for the case study of a representative state-of-the-art digital reactor trip system. The analysis qualitatively and systematically identifies the most critical CCFs and other hazards of digital I&C systems. Ultimately, the RESHA can help researchers make informed decisions for how, and to what degree, defensive measures such as redundancy, diversity, and defense in depth can be used to mitigate or eliminate the potential hazards of digital I&C systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fixed‐tube‐sheet shell‐and‐tube heat exchangers (FTHEs) are widely used in process plants to enhance energy efficiency and to control temperature levels of unit operations. Even moderate temperature differences between shell and tube bundle of FTHEs can lead to failure mechanisms induced by thermal stress. To avoid equipment failure, design codes require an analysis of the transient response of an FTHE during special operating conditions. This work presents a modular‐hierarchical approach for the dynamic simulation of FTHEs, which is applied to special operating scenarios such as a loss of tube‐side flow, a shell‐side steaming‐out (cleaning procedure to remove hydrocarbon residues with steam) and a reactor trip (sudden stop of exothermic reaction). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The GuangdongHong KongMacao Greater Bay Area is one of the most severely affected areas by typhoon in China. Typhoon hazard analysis is essential for the policymaking of wind design criteria for major engineering projects and city disaster preparedness plans in this region.The synthetic full track typhoon model can simulate the whole process of typhoon events from generation to extinction，which is the most potential model for the evaluation of typhoon hazards. In this study，a statistical dynamics fulltrack synthetic typhoon model is improved and tested for its applicability to the Greater Bay Area. Typhoon events in ten thousand years are then generated. Combing with a threedimensional numerical typhoon wind field model to simulate regional wind speeds，the long period of the maximum wind speed samples are obtained to estimate the typhoon wind hazard with multi return periods. By comparing with design wind speed defined in the national building code，we have found that the simulation results are in good agreement with those in the code at several locations. Based on the simulation results，the highresolution wind hazard maps of 50year and 100year return periods of the Greater Bay Area are drawn，the typhoon hazard in various regions of the Greater Bay Area is discussed. These results could be used in engineering wind resistance design and disaster prevention and mitigation planning in the Greater Bay Area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This project evaluates the existing statistical models to describe post-shut-in seismicity for hydraulic-fracturing-induced earthquakes and studies the importance of post-shut-in seismicity on decision-making. We focus on the short-term hazard based on the seismicity during and after the injection. We consider the Omori model by Langenbruch and Shapiro (Geophysics 75(6):MA53–MA62, 2010), the exponential model, and the stretched exponential model from Mignan et al. (Sci Rep 7(1):1–10, 2017). In particular, we evaluate their performance on nine earthquake clusters that occurred in 2010 near the Guy-Greenbrier fault in Arkansas (using data from Yoon et al., Solid Earth 122(11):9253–9274, 2017). While many of the post-shut-in sequences could be described by a single decay process, there is an increase in the post-shut-in seismicity in some clusters. Results show that the Omori model performs the best for the former case, while the stretched exponential model could capture the latter situations. We then use the Omori model to explore the effect of shut-in timing on the short-term hazard. Results show that the post-shut-in seismicity could affect the decision significantly for a slower decay in seismicity and longer injection duration. We perform a sensitivity analysis considering the uncertainties in the Omori model and the Gutenberg-Richter distribution. Results show that their relative importance depends on the injection duration and intensity thresholds of interest. Finally, we propose a logic tree model to incorporate the uncertainty in model selection and parameter estimation. The logic tree assembles the Omori model and the stretched exponential model to consider the possibility of increasing post-shut-in seismic hazard. We also show that each branch's weight could be updated in a Bayesian manner with new data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cannulas and needles (sharps) are frequently used for chemical manipulations involving air- and moisture-sensitive chemicals. When using these devices, the presence of sharp tips poses a risk of puncture wounds and increases the likelihood of chemical exposure. While these devices are regularly used in chemistry, facts on their proper usage, as well as the prevention of injuries, are scarce in the literature. Needle injuries often reflect inadequate hands-on training in their use during chemical transfer procedures, incorrect recapping, and improper storage and disposal procedures. Preventing needle injuries in the lab requires having situational awareness which is achieved by using proper techniques and a proper reaction set up, performing a risk assessment, and having group discussions about the procedure. As in all chemical manipulations, it is critical to be familiar with the reaction setup, to receive the necessary training for the chemicals being used, and to have reviewed all associated standard operating procedures (SOPs). Thorough planning can reduce injuries and exposures incurred by students and other researchers. This paper will discuss safe techniques for the use of needles and cannulas in chemistry laboratories. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Studies on the clinical implication of hospital selection for patients with lung cancer are few. Therefore, this study aimed to analyze 2005–2016 data from the Korean national database to assess annual trends of lung cancer surgery and clinical outcomes according to hospital selection. Methods: Data of 212 554 patients with lung cancer who underwent upfront surgery were screened. Trends according to sex, age, residence, and income were examined. Descriptive statistics were performed, and ptrend values were estimated. The association between survival and hospital selection was assessed using the log‐rank test. A multivariate Cox regression analysis was also performed. Results: A total of 49 021 patients were included in this study. Surgery was prevalent among men, patients aged 61–75 years, capital area residents, and high‐income patients. However, with the increasing rate of surgery among women, patients aged ≥76 years, city residents, and middle‐income patients, the current distribution of lung cancer surgery could change. The rate of lobectomy among these groups increased. All patients, except those in capital areas, preferred a hospital outside their area of residence (HOR); the number of patients with this tendency also increased. However, this trend was not observed among low‐income patients and those aged ≥76 years. There were significant differences in survival according to hospital selection. Conclusions: The trend of lung cancer surgery is changing. The current medical system is effective in providing lobectomy for patients including women, aged ≥76 years, city residents, and middle‐income. Increasing tendency to choose an HOR requires further study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Qingcaosha Reservoir is the largest reservoir in the middle of Yangtze River in China. It is the largest source of drinking water and urban water supply in Shanghai, with the best quality of raw water. It is the key project of Shanghai's “11th five-year plan”. A liquefied sandy soil layer exists in the shallow part of the Qingcaosha area. Therefore, it is necessary to treat the liquefied harmful soil layer of the embankment foundation to ensure the safety of the construction and operation of the project. The liquefaction grade was divided, and the liquefied soil layers were statistically analyzed according to the liquefaction discrimination results from this study. Based on the characteristics, location, liquefaction grade, and distribution of liquefied soil layers of each embankment section, various liquefaction treatment methods have been compared and studied, and the most economical and appropriate liquefaction treatment methods have been suggested. The suggested treatment methods have played an important role in the engineering design and safe operation of the Qingcaosha reservoir. Research has shown that these treatment methods not only have good economic effects but also resolve the liquefaction hazards and leakage problems of the embankment, which can provide a reference for similar projects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

INTRODUCTION: Climate change is heightening both long-term adverse risks to human health and the immediate-term risk of injuries and illness following climate-related disaster events that are becoming more frequent and severe. In addition to its direct health effects, climate change poses new threats to the nation's health care infrastructure - with potential to negatively impact healthcare capacity amidst increasing demand - through risks of flooding, wind damage, heat stress, power outages, and other physical harm to facilities. The typical Hazard Vulnerability Analyses conducted annually by hospitals use historical data to assess risks; these analyses are likely now inadequate for future preparation due to the impact of climate change. This article describes one approach to how healthcare leaders can better assess both near-term and long-term risks due to climate change, to mitigate against unprecedented but foreseeable threats. METHODS: In our large health system in the US Northeast, a process was undertaken to gather updated data and expert projections to forecast threats faced by each of our facilities in different climate-related disaster scenarios. Hazards examined in our setting included precipitation-based and coastal flooding events, heat waves, and high wind events, in addition to seismic events. Probabilities of occurrence and extents of different hazards were projected for the near term (2030) and the long term (2070). We then performed detailed vulnerability analyses for each facility with the predicted amount of rainfall, storm surge, heat stress, and windspeed, in collaboration with leaders at each facility. This was followed by a process to understand what would be needed to mitigate each vulnerability along with the associated costs. Ultimately, a cost/benefit analysis was performed - incorporating the relative likelihood and impact of different scenarios - to decide which improvement projects to embark on immediately, and what to defer and/or incorporate into future building plans. RESULTS: In our system, all facilities were vulnerable to the effects of increased temperatures, and multiple hospitals were noted to be vulnerable to extreme precipitation, storm surge, and high winds. Specific damaging scenarios identified included flooding of basements and building infrastructure spaces, water entry through windows during high winds, and overheating of power systems during heat waves. Potential solutions included improved power redundancy for cooling systems, enhancements to roof and window systems, and the acquisition of deployable flood barriers. We identified four categories for prioritiza-tion of action based on projected impact: 1) priorities in need of urgent mitigation, 2) priorities in need of investigative study for medium-term mitigation, 3) priorities for planned capital improvement projects, and 4) priorities to integrate into new facility construction. DISCUSSION: While the specific risks and vulnerabilities for each facility will differ according to its location and structural features, the approach we describe is broadly applicable. By forecasting specific risks, diagnosing vulnerabilities, developing potential solutions, and using a risk/benefit approach to decision making, hospitals can work toward protecting facilities and patients in the face of potential climate related natural disasters in an economically sound manner. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The undeniable rise of metal–organic framework (MOF) technology has opened the possibilities of these compounds for research and potential commercialization as alternative materials with a versatile number of applications that range from catalysis to greenhouse gases capture. However, there are several factors that constrain the direct scale-up of MOF from the laboratory to industrial plant scale given the insufficient knowledge about the overall safety in the synthesis process of more than 6000 existing MOF structures. This article discusses the findings of an overall hazard identification and analysis on the mainstream MOF synthesis process at the laboratory scale. One of the main motivations is to provide an insightful source of the safety practices and standards well-known in the chemical and petrochemical industries applied to the case study of the MOF synthesis process, as well as to prevent tragic incidents as the one reported in a research institute in March 2021. The intention is to encourage present and future MOF researchers to apply the techniques described in this article, or similar techniques, to their own laboratory practices therefore improving the overall practice of MOF synthesis. This work contributes to the overall advancement of MOF technology and the efforts for its commercial use at an industrial scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Metal‐oxide (MOx) are widely used in electrical/electrochemical sensors owing to their quick‐response ability, High surface‐to‐volume ratio, matching lateral‐dimensions with surface‐charge zone and modifiable with dopants significantly enhances their sensing performance. Typically, MOx‐based sensors are used in gaseous‐analytes for monitoring environmental‐pollutants and gas‐leakage. Tuning the properties of nanostructured‐metal‐oxides advanced their applications beyond environmental‐monitoring. This review focuses on the emerging‐dimensions of MOx‐based sensors in hazard‐surveillance and risk‐investigation like in deployment to detect fire‐hazards, chemical‐warfare agents, oil‐spills and explosives. Recent advances of using MOx‐based sensors as electronic‐tongue and electronic‐nose for non‐invasive health monitoring and MOx‐based sensor mobile robots for remote surveillance is also discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The probabilistic fault displacement hazard analysis method is one of the new methods in estimating the amount of possible displacement in the area at risk of causal fault rupture. In this study, using the probabilistic approach and earthquake method, the surface displacement of the North Tabriz fault has been investigated, and the probable displacement in different return periods has been estimated as contour maps. Assuming a strike-slip mechanism of the North Tabriz fault and earthquake method, to estimate the probability of displacement due to surface rupture, according to the surface ruptures caused by earthquakes of 1721 and 1780 North Tabriz fault, which were associated with 50 and 60 km of surface rupture respectively, a 50-60 km long section of North Tabriz fault was selected as the source of possible surface rupture. Due to a lack of data on large-scale earthquakes in northwestern Iran, the trace of North Tabriz fault is assumed to be a simple trace. This leads to a great epistemic uncertainty in the obtained possible displacement values Owing to the passage of the North Tabriz fault through the residential area of Tabriz and destructive historical earthquakes, it is essential to estimate the possible future displacements of this fault. According to paleoseismic studies, probabilistic displacements were considered between zero to 4.5 and zero to 7.1 m, respectively. Using the paleoseismic studies and the catalog of historical earthquakes, the return period and the probable magnitude of the North Tabriz fault are 645 years and Mw~7.7. In the case of exceedance rate of 5% in 475 and 2475 years, the maximum displacement is estimated up to a distance of 70 and 100 meters from the site. The attenuation relationships used in this study were derived from the fitting of seismic data occurred in different parts of the world. To reduce the uncertainty in this hazard analysis and the values of possible displacement, the data of surface rupture of strike-slip earthquakes in Iran can be used to fit and obtain local attenuation relationships. In this research, considering the attenuation relationship of Petersen, the estimated maximum probability displacement of the North Tabriz fault at an exceedance rate of 5% in 50 years, for 4.5 and 7.1m displacements, is 186 cm. Moreover, the estimated maximum probability displacements in 475 and 2475 years are 469 cm and 655 cm, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Vehicle fires in parking structures developing into large conflagrations are rare but can result in severe economic losses. It is important to understand the hazard posed by modern vehicle fires to determine whether current fire codes for parking garages are mandating adequate fire protection requirements. There has been an increase in the fire hazard from changes in vehicle design and increased use of plastics and other combustible materials in vehicle construction, along with denser parking of vehicles in parking structures. This manifests as faster flame spread within the vehicle, easier ignition and more rapid fire spread to neighboring vehicles. Based on the findings, test data from vehicles older than 2000–2005 model years should not be used as basis for development of codes and regulations. Open parking structures emerge as the main area of concern regarding fires in modern vehicles. The lack of any requirements for active protection systems in the fire codes, and trends in vehicle and garage design suggest that large, devastating fires in these structures could become increasingly common. The spread of fire between vehicles, especially from the initial to the second and third vehicles, is critical in determining the extent of the fire and the ability of the fire department to successfully control and extinguish. Future research should be conducted into earlier detection, sprinkler protection, and fire spread between vehicles to address the hazard. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The urgency for the autonomous provision of energy resources has led to the application of unconventional techniques for extracting non-renewable resources, such as horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing of highvolume shale. Although there are few conclusive scientific studies, this technique is accused of bringing dangers to the environment and the health of people, in such a way that the states are facing the dilemma of extending some years of energy autonomy or one day seek balance with the planet. Based on the review of works that present evidence of physical and chemical contamination and other impacts to the environment in areas where the fracking technique has been developed, a pair of risks is presented for people who live near extraction platforms and the dangers to develop fracking projects in tropical climate zones. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Conditional survival (CS) and failure hazard estimations can provide important dynamic prognostic information for clinical decision‐making and surveillance counseling. The current study aimed to investigate the CS and dynamic failure hazard in non‐metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) treated with intensity‐modulated radiotherapy (IMRT). Methods: Conditional overall survival (COS) and progression‐free survival (CPFS) estimates adjusted for age and gender against each AJCC 8th stage were calculated. Multivariable Cox regression (MCR) models were fitted in the entire population at baseline and subsequently separate MCR models were fitted in patients who have maintained event‐free time of 1 to 10 years to generate respective hazard ratio (HR). Annual hazard rates of death and progression over 10 years for each stage were also estimated. Results: A total of 1993 patients were eligible for analysis. The estimated 5‐year OS and PFS for entire cohort were 79.0% and 70.7% at initial diagnosis. After 5 years of event‐free follow‐up, additional 5‐year COS and CPFS increased to 85.9% and 85.5%, respectively. Stage I/II maintained dramatically favorable CS and low hazard (< 5%) of death and progression over time. Relative to stage I/II, stage III manifested non‐significantly higher failure hazard for the first 3 years of survivorship and approached to similar level of stage I/II afterwards. Stage IVA presented most impressive improvement in terms of both COS (∆=9.8%) and CPFS (∆ = 16.8%) whereas still drastically inferior to that of stage I‐III across all conditional time points. After 4 years of follow‐up, progression hazard of stage IVA became relatively steady of approximate 6%. Conclusions: Survival prospect of non‐metastatic NPC improves over years with distinct dynamic patterns across stages, providing important implications for personalized decision‐making in terms of both clinical management and surveillance counseling. Stage‐dependent and hazard‐adapted clinical management and surveillance are warranted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In our study, a food safety management system was developed for a chaga mushroom biotechnology product manufacturer, with the purpose of meeting the quality demands of customers and enhancing the manufacturer's reputation. The study focused on identifying the potentially significant hazards present at each stage of the production process for chaga mushroom capsule products, and on ensuring that the biotechnology company in question has fully implemented ISO22000:2018 and the HACCP methodology. The results indicate that, in the 1 year following the implementation of ISO 22000:2018, there was a statistically significant drop (P < 0.05) in the coliforms level of the tested biotechnology product samples that started in the ninth month following implementation. The rapid screening of mycotoxin, heavy metal, and pesticide residue levels also increased monitoring intensity and strengthened the periodic rotation plan, enabling control over potential problems relating to raw materials and ensuring product quality. This finding reveals the importance and necessity of rapid screening for small‐ and medium‐sized food industry enterprises. Furthermore, 1 year after the system's implementation, the defect rate for chaga products was also observed to have declined, and the number of process flow anomalies requiring correction was also found to have decreased significantly (P < 0.05), indicating that safety and quality levels were improving and stabilizing. If implemented over a longer period of time, the food safety management system's benefits would stand out even more, and significant improvements would be observed for more monitored items. Practical Application: Few studies have touched on food safety management systems (FSMSs) developed for capsule health food products. The enterprise examined in this study had actively worked to improve its quality system and meet its customers' needs through the implementation of the FSMSs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to shed light on the seismic response of complex industrial plants, advanced finite element models should take into account both multicomponents and relevant coupling effects. These models are usually computationally expensive and rely on significant computational resources. Moreover, the relationships between seismic action, system response and relevant damage levels are often characterized by a high level of nonlinearity, which requires a solid background of experimental data. Vulnerability and reliability analyses both depend on the adoption of a significant number of seismic waveforms that are generally not available when seismic risk evaluation is strictly site-specific. In addition, detection of most vulnerable components, i.e., pipe bends and welding points, is an important step to prevent leakage events. In order to handle these issues, a methodology based on a stochastic seismic ground motion model, hybrid simulation and acoustic emission is presented in this paper. The seismic model is able to generate synthetic ground motions coherent with site-specific analysis. In greater detail, the system is composed of a steel slender tank, i.e., the numerical substructure, and a piping network connected through a bolted flange joint, i.e., the physical substructure. Moreover, to monitor the seismic performance of the pipeline and harness the use of sensor technology, acoustic emission sensors are placed through the pipeline. Thus, real-time acoustic emission signals of the system under study are acquired using acoustic emission sensors. Moreover, in addition to seismic events, also a severe monotonic loading is exerted on the physical substructure. As a result, deformation levels of each critical component were investigated; and the processing of acoustic emission signals provided a more in-depth view of the damage of the analysed components. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although seismic activity in Brazil is low to moderate, some earthquakes with damage potential occurred in the past. Engineering structures located along the coast and those installed in deep waters need to comply with safety requirements. In addition, there is a need to address the public interest regarding the effects of seismically-induced landslides. Therefore, a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment was carried out for the offshore south/southeast regions of Brazil, in order to estimate potential levels of ground motion. A historical and recent instrumental seismicity catalog for this region has been compiled. A stochastic attenuation relation with different seismic source models and recurrence parameters was used in a hazard analysis with the CRISIS 2012 software. To capture the epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties in the hazard calculations, a logic tree approach was adopted, considering different seismic zone models, seismic activity parameters, and scaling factors in the Ground Motion Prediction Equation. It was verified that the Peak Ground Accelerations are mostly less than 2.0% g in the continental portion of the region (for 10% exceedance probability in 50 years). At a particular point of interest located offshore in the continental slope of the study area, the seismic hazard is also low, with the maximum acceleration for the probability of exceedance of 10% and 2% in 50 years reaching mean values of 3.2% and 19.1% g, respectively, for very hard rock conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Landslides are the second most frequent tsunami source worldwide. However, their complex and diverse nature of origin combined with their infrequent event records make prognostic modelling challenging. In this paper, we present a probabilistic framework for analysing uncertainties emerging from the landslide source process. This probabilistic framework employs event trees and is used to conduct tsunami uncertainty analysis as well as probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA). An example study is presented for the Lyngen fjord in Norway. This application uses a mix of empirical landslide data combined with expert judgement to come up with probability maps for tsunami inundation. Based on this study, it is concluded that the present landslide tsunami hazard analysis is largely driven by epistemic uncertainties. These epistemic uncertainties can be incorporated in the probabilistic framework. Conducting a literature analysis, we further show examples of how landslide and tsunami data can be used to better constrain landslide uncertainties, combined with statistical and numerical analysis methods. We discuss how these methods, combined with the probabilistic framework, can be used to improve landslide tsunami hazard analysis in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The likelihood of incident occurring in oil and gas industries is high due to the inherent risks associated to high temperature, high pressure, hydrocarbon, and etc. One of the prominent incidents that have taken place is the Texas refinery explosion. The purpose of this review was to investigate the causes of the BP Texas refinery incident. There are three sources of references for the reviewed articles: Web of Science, Scopus, and Science Direct. The search results were filtered according to six selection criteria, and after reading the abstracts and full texts, ten articles were included in this review. These studies and reports were reviewed to understand modeling and simulation of the incident process and to identify the root causes of the incident. The review highlights the main factors that led to the incident including: lack of management of change (MOC), maintenance, preliminary hazard analysis, lack of effective safety barriers, and human errors in some sectors. It is recommended that lessons learned from the incident be shared to relevant parties to improve the process safety and further studies on safety barriers and their failure instead of simulation of the incident dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aftershocks are commonly removed from observed earthquake catalogs in probabilistic seismic hazard analyses, using declustering techniques. We use stationary and temporal Epistemic‐Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) models to generate aftershocks from background seismicity and preceding aftershocks. We assume that the mainshocks equal the background seismicity, to divide the synthetic earthquake catalogs into mainshock (declustered) and complete (nondeclustered) versions. Only mainshocks follow a Poissonian distribution. We then evaluate how accurately we can forecast the recurrence of the largest events based on the simulated catalogs. A single b value is derived from the simulated catalogs and used in the magnitude‐frequency forecast. When the b value of the mainshocks is considerably smaller than the b value of the aftershocks, the information derived from the mainshock catalog leads to accurate predictions of the occurrence of the largest events. Conversely, when the mainshock and aftershocks have comparable b values, only the complete catalog produces representative estimates for the occurrence statistics of the largest events. We also show that using Poisson statistics leads to representative assessment of long‐term recurrences, even if aftershocks have a non‐Poissonian distribution. Finally, we analyze a recent case of induced seismicity, Oklahoma, USA, where the complete catalog displays a kink in the magnitude‐frequency distribution. Declustering removes this kink, leading to better b value estimations for the largest magnitude events. We conclude that temporal declustering for seismic hazard assessment is only recommended in catalogs with a large number of earthquakes and in catalogs where the b values of the mainshocks are significantly different from the b values of the complete catalog. Key Points: Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis relies on accurate forecasts of the magnitude‐frequency distribution of the largest eventsMainshocks and aftershocks may have different b valuesTemporal declustering is appropriate only if mainshocks and aftershocks have considerably different b values [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

PWCs are sporty recreational boats that can hold a pilot and up to 2 additional passengers. These vessels have powerful engines driving an internal impeller that forces water through a steerable jet nozzle. This pressurized water provides thrust used for both propulsion and steering. Three-person PWCs can have 200 hp engines, and can speed across the water at 60-70 mph. PWCs are popular throughout the country and around the world. But, since the 1970's, there has been a history of serious injuries and fatalities involving PWC operators, passengers, and bystanders. Many such incidents have been of two principal types – a.) steering-related collisions, and b.) body cavity water intrusion injuries to passengers who fell off the back of an accelerating PWC, and suffered body orifice damages caused by exposure to the pressurized water jet. PWC manufacturers tried to address both these types of hazards via precautionary instructions and warnings alone, but casualty rates remained high. Recently, engineering changes were introduced that have enhanced PWC steering, and have resulted in improved craft safety. However, no engineering changes have addressed the pressurized water intrusion type injuries. Total reliance on warnings, and deficient aspects of those warnings, continue to negatively impact PWC safety. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses how major climatic impact drivers, including rising sea levels, intensifying storms and increasing precipitation rates, increase the likelihood of hazardous flooding in the city of Providence in Rhode Island. Topics covered include how the city and its healthcare infrastructure face growing risks from climate change, the climatic impact on the city and the causes of flooding.

• The STPA has been applied for systemic analysis of an anesthesiological process. • Qualitative research has been used to elicit knowledge for the STPA. • The STPA allowed identifying functional risk areas in the process. • A list of control actions has been defined to reduce systemic risks. Anesthesiological practices are complex activities with inherent risks. Hazard assessment techniques based on cause-effect links and linear reasoning do not adequately represent the actual behavior of modern socio-technical systems, which are characterized by tight couplings and interactions among technical, human and organizational aspects. Analysing hazards following a linear perspective may result in a not completely effective management of process safety. This paper discusses the need for a systemic analysis for healthcare practices, applying such perspective to an anesthesiological process. More specifically, it aims to define process hazards, and unsafe control actions for preoperative and intraoperative anesthesiological activities, extending simple cause-effect reasoning through the System Theoretic Accident Model and Processes (STAMP) and its hazard analysis technique, i.e. System Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA). The outcomes of the study based on qualitative research techniques point out the relevance of a systemic approach, with implications for process management. It is argued that the adoption of strict procedures to constraint the variability of everyday work represents a valuable solution only for some specific tasks, while for many others variability has to be accepted as a means to enhance patient safety in a healthy work environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aimed to perform hazard analysis based on the HACCP principles on the meatball production of a popular bakso restaurant in Malang City that has had 200 franchises spread in 15 provinces in Indonesia. This analysis was conducted to control the potential biological, chemical, and physical hazards in every stage of the manufacturing chain, from production to serving to consumers. Data were collected through survey and close observation into the production kitchen. The HACCP steps performed were the identification of hazards, determination of CCPs, setting of critical limits, and formulation of corrective actions. The results showed that the phases considered as critical control points are the raw material receipt, meatball shaping by hand, meatball draining, storage, distribution, and serving. The major hazard identified in each process is the growth of pathogens. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A new systems approach to safety, called STPA, was demonstrated. • STPA was found to holistically analyze system safety. • The method highlights interactions between humans, hardware, and software. • STPA identified a larger set of causal scenarios than FMEA. In recent years, technology in the medical industry has been advancing to provide safe and systematic medical care. However, medical technologies and treatments have also become more complicated, presenting new challenges for the traditional approaches used to engineer safety-critical systems. This research compares one of the most popular approaches in the medical device industry, Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA), with a relatively new method, System-Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA), in the context of a tomographic treatment system. STPA is found to be an effective means to ensure the quality of TomoTherapy and to conduct a holistic hazard analysis including both human and technical factors. A comparison of STPA and FMEA results found that STPA can identify a larger set of causal scenarios. The interactions of humans, hardware, and software were highlighted through the new STPA approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

By considering the integrity of microcosmic and comprehensive geomorphological features, this article intends to develop a quantitative method for regional risk assessment of debris flow by analyzing the in-depth relations among hazard-forming environments, disaster factors and elements at risk. Taking the debris flows in the Longxi River Basin in China as a case study, an approach based on the hydrological response unit (HRU) is proposed by establishing both a model and system for regional risk assessment to analyze the hazard of debris flows and the exposure and vulnerability of elements at risk. The HRU-based approach consists of 11 disaster factors: topographic slope; relative elevation difference; lithology; channel gradient; fault; disturbed area; rainfall; and the type, location, fragility and economic value of the elements at risk. Specifically, a hazard integrated model is built by considering the hazard factors and their corresponding weights to evaluate the hazard level of debris flow. Through determining the type, quantity, distribution, economic value and fragility of hazard-affected objects in a region, methods are established to determine the exposure and vulnerability of different elements at risk. Validated by using a field study of actual debris flows, a debris-flow risk map is obtained, and the assessment results are in accordance with the actual disaster situation. The analyses show that the distributions of zones with high risk and above (i.e., where hazard densities and economic activities are considerably high) are closely correlated with the topographic and socioeconomic characteristics of the debris flow catchment. These findings suggest that the assessment results provide scientific support for planning measures to prevent or reduce debris flow hazards; thus, the presented method may serve as a pertinent guidance for regional risk assessment of debris flows in both the Longxi River Basin and beyond. • Hydrological response unit (HRU) can sufficiently describe the comprehensive characteristics of geomorphology and hazard-forming conditions related to debris flow. • A factor system was quantified and built to analyze the in-depth relations among natural environments, disaster factors and elements at risk. • An HRU-based and quantitative approach for evaluating regional risk debris-flow effectively improves the reasonability and applicability of risk assessment of debris flows. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]