Search

Publicly available electric vehicle (EV) infrastructure is pivotal for the United States EV transition by 2030. Existing infrastructure lacks equitably distribution to low-income and underrepresented communities, impeding mass adoption. Our study, utilizing 2021 micro-level data from 121 million United States households, comprehensively examines income and racial disparities in EV infrastructure accessibility. Our analysis of national averages indicates that lower-income groups face less accessibility to public EV infrastructure in both urban and rural geographies. Black households experience less rural accessibility, but greater urban accessibility compared to White households conditioning on income. However, our localized analysis uncovers significant variations in accessibility gaps among counties, rural and urban settings, and dwelling types. While Black households experience greater urban accessibility nationally, a closer look at the county level reveals diminishing advantages. This study identifies areas with pronounced inequality and urgent needs for enhanced accessibility, emphasizing the necessity for tailored solutions by local governments to enhance equitable access to EV infrastructure. This paper finds that on average lower-income groups encounter reduced accessibility to public EV infrastructure in urban and rural areas. Black households have less rural accessibility, but greater urban accessibility compared to White households. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding projected changes in flooding across the contiguous United States (CONUS) helps increase our capability to adapt to and mitigate against this hazard. Here, we assess future changes in flooding across CONUS using outputs from 28 global climate models and four scenarios of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6. We find that CONUS is projected to experience an overall increase in flooding, especially under higher emission scenarios; there are subregional differences, with the Northeast and Southeast (Great Plains of the North and Southwest) showing higher tendency towards increasing (decreasing) flooding due to changes in flood processes at the seasonal scale. Moreover, even though trends may not be detected in the historical period, these projected future trends highlight the current needs for incorporating climate change in the future infrastructure designs and management of the water resources. This paper assesses future changes in flood magnitude across the conterminous United States based on multiple climate change scenarios. The results suggest that annual maximum peak discharge is projected to become more extreme under higher emission scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Policymakers at the federal and state level have begun to incorporate energy burden into equity goals and program evaluations, aiming to reduce energy burden below a high level of 6% for lower income households in the United States. Pairing an empirical household-level dataset spanning United States geographies together with modeled hourly energy demand curves, we show that rooftop solar reduces energy burden across a majority of adopters during our study period from a median of 3.3% to 2.6%. For low- and moderate-income adopters (at or below 80% and 120% of area median income, respectively), solar reduces median 2021 energy burden from 7.7% to 6.2%, and 4.1% to 3.3%, respectively. Importantly, solar reduces the rate of high or severe energy burden from 67% of all low-income households before adoption to 52% of households following adoption, and correspondingly from 21% to 13% for moderate-income households. Here, we show rooftop solar can support policy goals to reduce energy burden along with strategies such as weatherization and bill assistance. Modeled results show that rooftop solar reduced energy burden for most adopters in 2021 from a median of 3.3% to 2.6% with the average adopter seeing a 0.6 point ($691 annual) reduction in burden, accounting for costs, incentives, and savings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding projected changes in flooding across the contiguous United States (CONUS) helps increase our capability to adapt to and mitigate against this hazard. Here, we assess future changes in flooding across CONUS using outputs from 28 global climate models and four scenarios of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6. We find that CONUS is projected to experience an overall increase in flooding, especially under higher emission scenarios; there are subregional differences, with the Northeast and Southeast (Great Plains of the North and Southwest) showing higher tendency towards increasing (decreasing) flooding due to changes in flood processes at the seasonal scale. Moreover, even though trends may not be detected in the historical period, these projected future trends highlight the current needs for incorporating climate change in the future infrastructure designs and management of the water resources. This paper assesses future changes in flood magnitude across the conterminous United States based on multiple climate change scenarios. The results suggest that annual maximum peak discharge is projected to become more extreme under higher emission scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the initial version of our paper, we included Clean Water Act data for all 50 states, DC, and Puerto Rico. Similarly, the percent of Clean Water Act permittees in Significant Noncompliance drops from 6.01 to 3.37% and the average percent of permittees in Significant Noncompliance drops from 9.00 to 6.23%. To ensure that we did not misrepresent the level of Clean Water Act Significant Noncompliance in these states, we have corrected our article by removing these states from the Clean Water Act portion of our analysis. [Extracted from the article]

Artificial intelligence has emerged as a technology to enhance productivity and improve life quality. However, its role in building energy efficiency and carbon emission reduction has not been systematically studied. This study evaluated artificial intelligence's potential in the building sector, focusing on medium office buildings in the United States. A methodology was developed to assess and quantify potential emissions reductions. Key areas identified were equipment, occupancy influence, control and operation, and design and construction. Six scenarios were used to estimate energy and emissions savings across representative climate zones. Here we show that artificial intelligence could reduce cost premiums, enhancing high energy efficiency and net zero building penetration. Adopting artificial intelligence could reduce energy consumption and carbon emissions by approximately 8% to 19% in 2050. Combining with energy policy and low-carbon power generation could approximately reduce energy consumption by 40% and carbon emissions by 90% compared to business-as-usual scenarios in 2050. AI reduces building energy and emissions in design/construction, equipment, occupancy, and control/operation. By accelerating high-efficiency and net-zero buildings, AI could cut energy and emissions by 40-90% by 2050 combined with adequate policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding and treating human diseases require valid animal models. Leveraging the genetic diversity in rhesus macaque populations across eight primate centers in the United States, we conduct targeted-sequencing on 1845 individuals for 374 genes linked to inherited human retinal and neurodevelopmental diseases. We identify over 47,000 single nucleotide variants, a substantial proportion of which are shared with human populations. By combining rhesus and human allele frequencies with established variant prediction methods, we develop a machine learning-based score that outperforms established methods in predicting missense variant pathogenicity. Remarkably, we find a marked number of loss-of-function variants and putative deleterious variants, which may lead to the development of rhesus disease models. Through phenotyping of macaques carrying a pathogenic OPA1:p.A8S variant, we identify a genetic model of autosomal dominant optic atrophy. Finally, we present a public website housing variant and genotype data from over two thousand rhesus macaques. This study on the genetic diversity of 1,845 rhesus macaques improves genetic variation interpretation and identifies macaque models for inherited human retinal and neurodevelopment diseases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite global efforts to harmonize international trade statistics, our understanding of digital trade and its implications remains limited. Here, we introduce a method to estimate bilateral exports and imports for dozens of sectors starting from the corporate revenue data of large digital firms. This method allows us to provide estimates for digitally ordered and delivered trade involving digital goods (e.g. video games), productized services (e.g. digital advertising), and digital intermediation fees (e.g. hotel rental), which together we call digital products. We use these estimates to study five key aspects of digital trade. We find that, compared to trade in physical goods, digital product exports are more spatially concentrated, have been growing faster, and can offset trade balance estimates, like the United States trade deficit on physical goods. We also find that countries that have decoupled economic growth from greenhouse gas emissions tend to have larger digital exports and that digital exports contribute positively to the complexity of economies. This method, dataset, and findings provide a new lens to understand the impact of international trade in digital products. This study introduces a method to quantify trade in digital products, like cloud computing and mobile games. It finds that this trade grows rapidly, may impact trade balances, support economic decoupling, and enhance economic complexity measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The seamless adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) in the United States necessitates the development of extensive and effective charging infrastructure. Various charging systems have been proposed, including Direct Current Fast Charging, Battery Swapping, and Dynamic Wireless Power Transfer. While many studies have evaluated the charging costs and greenhouse gas (GHG) intensity of EVs, a comprehensive analysis comparing these systems and their implications across vehicle categories remains unexplored. This study compares the total cost of ownership (TCO) and GHG-intensity of EVs using these charging systems. Based on nationwide infrastructure deployment simulations, the change to TCO from adopting EVs varies by scenario, vehicle category, and location, with local fuel prices, electricity prices, and traffic volumes dramatically impacting results. Further, EV GHG-intensity depends on local electricity mixes and infrastructure utilizations. This research highlights the responsiveness of EV benefits resulting from technology advancements, deployment decisions, and policymaking. Results show meaningful variations in electric vehicle costs and emissions benefits across the United States, differing by vehicle category and charging systems: Direct Current Fast Charging, Battery Swapping, and Dynamic Wireless Power Transfer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) is a leading cause of acute respiratory tract infection, with the greatest impact on infants, immunocompromised individuals, and older adults. RSV prevalence decreased substantially in the United States (US) following the implementation of COVID-19-related non-pharmaceutical interventions but later rebounded with abnormal seasonality. The biological and epidemiological factors underlying this altered behavior remain poorly defined. In this retrospective cohort study from 2009 to 2023 in Chicago, Illinois, US, we examined RSV epidemiology, clinical severity, and genetic diversity. We found that changes in RSV diagnostic platforms drove increased detections in outpatient settings post-2020 and that hospitalized adults infected with RSV-A were at higher risk of intensive care admission than those with RSV-B. While population structures of RSV-A remained unchanged, RSV-B exhibited a genetic shift into geographically distinct clusters. Mutations in the antigenic regions of the fusion protein suggest convergent evolution with potential implications for vaccine and therapeutic development. Non-pharmaceutical interventions for COVID-19 also impacted the transmission of other viruses including respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). Here the authors describe the changing epidemiology, clinical severity, and genetic diversity of RSV in Chicago, Illinois, from July 2010 to April 2023. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Energy efficiency improvement is often hindered by the energy efficiency gap. This paper examines the effect of short-run temperature fluctuations on the Energy Star air conditioner purchases in the United States from 2006 to 2019 using transaction-level data. Results show that the probability of purchasing an Energy Star air conditioner increases as the weekly temperature before the transaction deviates from 20–22 °C. A larger response is related to fewer cooling degree days in the previous years, higher electricity prices/income/educational levels/age/rate of owners, more common use of electricity, and stronger concern about climate change. 1 °C increase and decrease from 21 °C would lead to a reduction of total energy expenditure by 35.46 and 17.73 million dollars nationwide (0.13% and 0.06% of the annual total energy expenditure on air conditioning), respectively. Our findings have important policy implications for demand-end interventions to incorporate the potential impact of the ambient physical environment. The probability of purchasing an energy-efficient air conditioner increases as the temperature deviates from 20–22 °C in the United States, with the response varying by electricity price, background climate, and demographic characteristics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Energy efficiency improvement is often hindered by the energy efficiency gap. This paper examines the effect of short-run temperature fluctuations on the Energy Star air conditioner purchases in the United States from 2006 to 2019 using transaction-level data. Results show that the probability of purchasing an Energy Star air conditioner increases as the weekly temperature before the transaction deviates from 20–22 °C. A larger response is related to fewer cooling degree days in the previous years, higher electricity prices/income/educational levels/age/rate of owners, more common use of electricity, and stronger concern about climate change. 1 °C increase and decrease from 21 °C would lead to a reduction of total energy expenditure by 35.46 and 17.73 million dollars nationwide (0.13% and 0.06% of the annual total energy expenditure on air conditioning), respectively. Our findings have important policy implications for demand-end interventions to incorporate the potential impact of the ambient physical environment. The probability of purchasing an energy-efficient air conditioner increases as the temperature deviates from 20–22 °C in the United States, with the response varying by electricity price, background climate, and demographic characteristics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Within coastal communities, sea level rise (SLR) will result in widespread intermittent flooding and long-term inundation. Inundation effects will be evident, but isolation that arises from the loss of accessibility to critical services due to inundation of transportation networks may be less obvious. We examine who is most at risk of isolation due to SLR, which can inform community adaptation plans and help ensure that existing social vulnerabilities are not exacerbated. Combining socio-demographic data with an isolation metric, we identify social and economic disparities in risk of isolation under different SLR scenarios (1-10 ft) for the coastal U.S. We show that Black and Hispanic populations face a disproportionate risk of isolation at intermediate levels of SLR (4 ft and greater). Further, census tracts with higher rates of renters and older adults consistently face higher risk of isolation. These insights point to significant inequity in the burdens associated with SLR. Risk of isolation is expected to disproportionately affect racial minority populations in the U.S. as sea level rise increases. Communities with more renters, older adults, and lower-income populations will also be impacted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Within coastal communities, sea level rise (SLR) will result in widespread intermittent flooding and long-term inundation. Inundation effects will be evident, but isolation that arises from the loss of accessibility to critical services due to inundation of transportation networks may be less obvious. We examine who is most at risk of isolation due to SLR, which can inform community adaptation plans and help ensure that existing social vulnerabilities are not exacerbated. Combining socio-demographic data with an isolation metric, we identify social and economic disparities in risk of isolation under different SLR scenarios (1-10 ft) for the coastal U.S. We show that Black and Hispanic populations face a disproportionate risk of isolation at intermediate levels of SLR (4 ft and greater). Further, census tracts with higher rates of renters and older adults consistently face higher risk of isolation. These insights point to significant inequity in the burdens associated with SLR. Risk of isolation is expected to disproportionately affect racial minority populations in the U.S. as sea level rise increases. Communities with more renters, older adults, and lower-income populations will also be impacted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent studies conclude that the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic decreased power sector CO2 emissions globally and in the United States. In this paper, we analyze the statistical significance of CO2 emissions reductions in the U.S. power sector from March through December 2020. We use Gaussian process (GP) regression to assess whether CO2 emissions reductions would have occurred with reasonable probability in the absence of COVID-19 considering uncertainty due to factors unrelated to the pandemic and adjusting for weather, seasonality, and recent emissions trends. We find that monthly CO2 emissions reductions are only statistically significant in April and May 2020 considering hypothesis tests at 5% significance levels. Separately, we consider the potential impact of COVID-19 on coal-fired power plant retirements through 2022. We find that only a small percentage of U.S. coal power plants are at risk of retirement due to a possible COVID-19-related sustained reduction in electricity demand and prices. We observe and anticipate a return to pre-COVID-19 CO2 emissions in the U.S. power sector. COVID-19 has decreased power sector emissions globally and in the United States. Here the authors assess whether such reductions would have occurred in the United States in the absence of the pandemic, as well as the potential impact of COVID-19 on coal-fired power plant retirements through 2022. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Antibodies play a critical role in protection against influenza; yet titers and viral neutralization represent incomplete correlates of immunity. Instead, the ability of antibodies to leverage the antiviral power of the innate immune system has been implicated in protection from and clearance of influenza infection. Here, post-hoc analysis of the humoral immune response to influenza is comprehensively profiled in a cohort of vaccinated older adults (65 +) monitored for influenza infection during the 2012/2013 season in the United States (NCT: 01427309). While robust humoral immune responses arose against the vaccine and circulating strains, influenza-specific antibody effector profiles differed in individuals that later became infected with influenza, who are deficient in NK cell activating antibodies to both hemagglutinin and neuraminidase, compared to individuals who remained uninfected. Furthermore, NK cell activation was strongly associated with the NK cell senescence marker CD57, arguing for the need for selective induction of influenza-specific afucosylated NK activating antibodies in older adults to achieve protection. High dose vaccination, currently used for older adults, was insufficient to generate this NK cell-activating humoral response. Next generation vaccines able to selectively bolster NK cell activating antibodies may be required to achieve protection in the setting of progressively senescent NK cells. Antibodies play a crucial role in protection from influenza virus infection, but functional details, particularly in older adults, are incomplete. Here the authors show that NK cell-activating antibodies are associated with protection from influenza infection in vaccinated older adults. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The system of oceanic flows constituting the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) moves heat and other properties to the subpolar North Atlantic, controlling regional climate, weather, sea levels, and ecosystems. Climate models suggest a potential AMOC slowdown towards the end of this century due to anthropogenic forcing, accelerating coastal sea level rise along the western boundary and dramatically increasing flood risk. While direct observations of the AMOC are still too short to infer long-term trends, we show here that the AMOC-induced changes in gyre-scale heat content, superimposed on the global mean sea level rise, are already influencing the frequency of floods along the United States southeastern seaboard. We find that ocean heat convergence, being the primary driver for interannual sea level changes in the subtropical North Atlantic, has led to an exceptional gyre-scale warming and associated dynamic sea level rise since 2010, accounting for 30-50% of flood days in 2015-2020. AMOC-induced heat advection controls ocean temperature in the subtropical North Atlantic, drives year-to-year changes of basin-wide and coastal sea level, and accounts for 30-50% of flood days along the South Atlantic Bight and Gulf of Mexico coasts in 2015-2020. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the United States, state governments have been the locus of action for addressing climate change. However, the lack of a holistic measure of state climate policy has prevented a comprehensive assessment of state policies' effectiveness. Here, we assemble information from 25 individual policies to develop an aggregate index of state climate policies from 2000-2020. The climate policy index highlights variation between states which is difficult to assess in single policy studies. Next, we examine the environmental and economic consequences of state climate policy. A standard-deviation increase in climate policy is associated with a 5% reduction in per-capita electricity-sector CO2 emissions and a 2% reduction in economy-wide CO2 emissions per capita. We do not find evidence that more stringent climate policy harms states' economies. Our results make clear the benefits of state climate policy, while showing that current state efforts are unlikelyto meet the US goal under the Paris Climate Accord. In the US, states vary in their efforts to address climate change. Stronger state climate policies reduce CO2 emissions without harming the economy, but these reductions are unlikely to meet the goals in the Paris Climate Accord. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The global increase in the frequency, intensity, and adverse impacts of natural hazards on societies and economies necessitates comprehensive vulnerability assessments at regional to national scales. Despite considerable research conducted on this subject, current vulnerability and risk assessments are implemented at relatively coarse resolution, and they are subject to significant uncertainty. Here, we develop a block-level Socio-Economic-Infrastructure Vulnerability (SEIV) index that helps characterize the spatial variation of vulnerability across the conterminous United States. The SEIV index provides vulnerability information at the block level, takes building count and the distance to emergency facilities into consideration in addition to common socioeconomic vulnerability measures and uses a machine-learning algorithm to calculate the relative weight of contributors to improve upon existing vulnerability indices in spatial resolution, comprehensiveness, and subjectivity reduction. Based on such fine resolution data of approximately 11 million blocks, we are able to analyze inequality within smaller political boundaries and find significant differences even between neighboring blocks. Introduces a precise, machine-learning-based Socio-Economic-Infrastructure Vulnerability index for natural hazards that uncovers stark variations in vulnerability at the block level emphasizing crucial information for risk-informed decision making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

SARS-CoV-2 is a zoonotic virus with documented bi-directional transmission between people and animals. Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 from humans to free-ranging white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) poses a unique public health risk due to the potential for reservoir establishment where variants may persist and evolve. We collected 8,830 respiratory samples from free-ranging white-tailed deer across Washington, D.C. and 26 states in the United States between November 2021 and April 2022. We obtained 391 sequences and identified 34 Pango lineages including the Alpha, Gamma, Delta, and Omicron variants. Evolutionary analyses showed these white-tailed deer viruses originated from at least 109 independent spillovers from humans, which resulted in 39 cases of subsequent local deer-to-deer transmission and three cases of potential spillover from white-tailed deer back to humans. Viruses repeatedly adapted to white-tailed deer with recurring amino acid substitutions across spike and other proteins. Overall, our findings suggest that multiple SARS-CoV-2 lineages were introduced, became enzootic, and co-circulated in white-tailed deer. The SARS-CoV-2 virus has been documented to transmit between humans and animals, providing opportunities for viral reservoirs. Here, the authors show SARS-CoV-2 lineages in free-ranging white-tailed deer across the United States, long after the lineages had declined in human populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Macrostructural characteristics, such as cost of living and state-level anti-poverty programs relate to the magnitude of socioeconomic disparities in brain development and mental health. In this study we leveraged data from the Adolescent Brain and Cognitive Development (ABCD) study from 10,633 9-11 year old youth (5115 female) across 17 states. Lower income was associated with smaller hippocampal volume and higher internalizing psychopathology. These associations were stronger in states with higher cost of living. However, in high cost of living states that provide more generous cash benefits for low-income families, socioeconomic disparities in hippocampal volume were reduced by 34%, such that the association of family income with hippocampal volume resembled that in the lowest cost of living states. We observed similar patterns for internalizing psychopathology. State-level anti-poverty programs and cost of living may be confounded with other factors related to neurodevelopment and mental health. However, the patterns were robust to controls for numerous state-level social, economic, and political characteristics. These findings suggest that state-level macrostructural characteristics, including the generosity of anti-poverty policies, are potentially relevant for addressing the relationship of low income with brain development and mental health. Lower income is associated with smaller hippocampal volume and mental health problems. Here, the authors show that this association is weaker in areas of the United States that are less expensive or that have a stronger social safety net. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reconstructing the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection is central to understanding the state of the pandemic. Seroprevalence studies are often used to assess cumulative infections as they can identify asymptomatic infection. Since July 2020, commercial laboratories have conducted nationwide serosurveys for the U.S. CDC. They employed three assays, with different sensitivities and specificities, potentially introducing biases in seroprevalence estimates. Using models, we show that accounting for assays explains some of the observed state-to-state variation in seroprevalence, and when integrating case and death surveillance data, we show that when using the Abbott assay, estimates of proportions infected can differ substantially from seroprevalence estimates. We also found that states with higher proportions infected (before or after vaccination) had lower vaccination coverages, a pattern corroborated using a separate dataset. Finally, to understand vaccination rates relative to the increase in cases, we estimated the proportions of the population that received a vaccine prior to infection. SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence surveys aim to estimate the proportion of the population that has been infected, but their accuracy depends on the characteristics of the test assay used. Here, the authors use statistical models to assess the impact of the use of different assays on estimates of seroprevalence in the United States. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Expanding the talent pipeline of students from underrepresented backgrounds in STEM has been a priority in the United States for decades. However, potential solutions to increase the number of such students in STEM academic pathways, measured using longitudinal randomized controlled trials in real-world contexts, have been limited. Here, we expand on an earlier investigation that reported results from a longitudinal field experiment in which undergraduate female students (N = 150) interested in engineering at college entry were randomly assigned a female peer mentor in engineering, a male peer mentor in engineering, or not assigned a mentor for their first year of college. While an earlier article presented findings from participants' first two years of college, the current article reports the same participants' academic experiences for each year in college through college graduation and one year post-graduation. Compared to the male peer mentor and no mentor condition, having a female peer mentor was associated with a significant improvement in participants' psychological experiences in engineering, aspirations to pursue postgraduate engineering degrees, and emotional well-being. It was also associated with participants' success in securing engineering internships and retention in STEM majors through college graduation. In sum, a low-cost, short peer mentoring intervention demonstrates benefits in promoting female students' success in engineering from college entry, through one-year post-graduation. The authors report findings from their study of female student participants interested in engineering at college entry who were randomly assigned to a female peer mentor, male mentor, or no mentor for their first year of college. The authors show that students assigned to a female peer mentor show benefits in psychological experiences in engineering, aspirations to pursue postgraduate engineering degrees, and emotional well-being, which persists up to one year after graduation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Adopting electric end-use technologies instead of fossil-fueled alternatives, known as electrification, is an important economy-wide decarbonization strategy that also reduces criteria pollutant emissions and improves air quality. In this study, we evaluate CO2 and air quality co-benefits of electrification scenarios by linking a detailed energy systems model and a full-form photochemical air quality model in the United States. We find that electrification can substantially lower CO2 and improve air quality and that decarbonization policy can amplify these trends, which yield immediate and localized benefits. In particular, transport electrification can improve ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5), though the magnitude of changes varies regionally. However, growing activity from non-energy-related PM2.5 sources—such as fugitive dust and agricultural emissions—can offset electrification benefits, suggesting that additional measures beyond CO2 policy and electrification are needed to meet air quality goals. We illustrate how commonly used marginal emissions approaches systematically underestimate reductions from electrification. Electrification is a decarbonization strategy that has the potential to reduce pollutant emissions and improve air quality. Here the authors evaluate CO2 and air quality co-benefits of electrification scenarios in the United States and find that electrification can substantially lower CO2 and improve ozone and fine particulate matter regionally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Type 1 diabetes (T1D) is associated with lower scores on tests of cognitive and neuropsychological function and alterations in brain structure and function in children. This proof-of-concept pilot study (ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier NCT03428932) examined whether MRI-derived indices of brain development and function and standardized IQ scores in adolescents with T1D could be improved with better diabetes control using a hybrid closed-loop insulin delivery system. Eligibility criteria for participation in the study included age between 14 and 17 years and a diagnosis of T1D before 8 years of age. Randomization to either a hybrid closed-loop or standard diabetes care group was performed after pre-qualification, consent, enrollment, and collection of medical background information. Of 46 participants assessed for eligibility, 44 met criteria and were randomized. Two randomized participants failed to complete baseline assessments and were excluded from final analyses. Participant data were collected across five academic medical centers in the United States. Research staff scoring the cognitive assessments as well as those processing imaging data were blinded to group status though participants and their families were not. Forty-two adolescents, 21 per group, underwent cognitive assessment and multi-modal brain imaging before and after the six month study duration. HbA1c and sensor glucose downloads were obtained quarterly. Primary outcomes included metrics of gray matter (total and regional volumes, cortical surface area and thickness), white matter volume, and fractional anisotropy. Estimated power to detect the predicted treatment effect was 0.83 with two-tailed, α = 0.05. Adolescents in the hybrid closed-loop group showed significantly greater improvement in several primary outcomes indicative of neurotypical development during adolescence compared to the standard care group including cortical surface area, regional gray volumes, and fractional anisotropy. The two groups were not significantly different on total gray and white matter volumes or cortical thickness. The hybrid closed loop group also showed higher Perceptual Reasoning Index IQ scores and functional brain activity more indicative of neurotypical development relative to the standard care group (both secondary outcomes). No adverse effects associated with study participation were observed. These results suggest that alterations to the developing brain in T1D might be preventable or reversible with rigorous glucose control. Long term research in this area is needed. Children with type 1 diabetes (T1D) are at risk for reduced cognitive ability and atypical brain development. This study shows that brain and cognitive measures can be improved in adolescents with T1D using a semi-automated insulin delivery system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The availability of three COVID-19 vaccines in the United States provides an unprecedented opportunity to examine how vaccine platforms and timing of vaccination in pregnancy impact maternal and neonatal immunity. Here, we characterize the antibody profile after Ad26.COV2.S, mRNA-1273 or BNT162b2 vaccination in 158 pregnant individuals and evaluate transplacental antibody transfer by profiling maternal and umbilical cord blood in 175 maternal-neonatal dyads. These analyses reveal lower vaccine-induced functions and Fc receptor-binding after Ad26.COV2.S compared to mRNA vaccination and subtle advantages in titer and function with mRNA-1273 versus BN162b2. mRNA vaccines have higher titers and functions against SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern. First and third trimester vaccination results in enhanced maternal antibody-dependent NK-cell activation, cellular and neutrophil phagocytosis, and complement deposition relative to second trimester. Higher transplacental transfer ratios following first and second trimester vaccination may reflect placental compensation for waning maternal titers. These results provide novel insight into the impact of platform and trimester of vaccination on maternal humoral immune response and transplacental antibody transfer. Pregnant individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 are at high risk of morbidity and mortality, in addition to adverse pregnancy outcomes, yet little is known regarding trimester-specific immunity and maternal protection from COVID-19 vaccine platforms. Authors utilise a systems serology approach to characterise the material antibody response and the transplacental antibody transfer, dependent on vaccine platform and trimester of vaccination. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pollen is a unique vehicle for viral spread. Pollen-associated viruses hitchhike on or within pollen grains and are transported to other plants by pollinators. They are deposited on flowers and have a direct pathway into the plant and next generation via seeds. To discover the diversity of pollen-associated viruses and identify contributing landscape and floral features, we perform a species-level metagenomic survey of pollen from wild, visually asymptomatic plants, located in one of four regions in the United States of America varying in land use. We identify many known and novel pollen-associated viruses, half belonging to the Bromoviridae, Partitiviridae, and Secoviridae viral families, but many families are represented. Across the regions, species harbor more viruses when surrounded by less natural and more human-modified environments than the reverse, but we note that other region-level differences may also covary with this. When examining the novel connection between virus richness and floral traits, we find that species with multiple, bilaterally symmetric flowers and smaller, spikier pollen harbored more viruses than those with opposite traits. The association of viral diversity with floral traits highlights the need to incorporate plant-pollinator interactions as a driver of pollen-associated virus transport into the study of plant-viral interactions. Pollen can be a vehicle for viral spread among plants. Here, Fetters et al. apply viral metagenomics to characterize the pollen virome of a diverse set of wild plants, find known and previously un-known viruses and show that wild plant species harbor more viruses when surrounded by less natural vegetation and when they have traits that promote increased plant-pollinator vector interactions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Energy inequity is an issue of increasing urgency. Few policy-relevant datasets evaluate the energy burden of typical American households. Here, we develop a framework using Net Energy Analysis and household socioeconomic data to measure systematic energy inequity among critical groups that need policy attention. We find substantial instances of energy poverty in the United States – 16% of households experience energy poverty as presently defined as spending more than 6% of household income on energy expenditures. More than 5.2 million households above the Federal Poverty Line face energy poverty, disproportionately burdening Black, Hispanic, and Native American communities. For solar, wind, and energy efficiency to address socioeconomic mobility, programs must reduce energy expenditures by expanding eligibility requirements for support and access to improved conservation measures, efficiency upgrades, and distributed renewables. We recommend the United States develop a more inclusive federal energy poverty categorization that increases assistance for household energy costs. Net energy metrics reveal disparities in United States household energy burdens. Here the authors find that at least five million households are excluded from current accounting methods, with race, education, and housing tenure accounting for large differences in energy burden. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fine particle pollution, PM2.5, is associated with increased risk of death from cardiorespiratory diseases. A multidecadal shift in the United States (U.S.) PM2.5 composition towards organic aerosol as well as advances in predictive algorithms for secondary organic aerosol (SOA) allows for novel examinations of the role of PM2.5 components on mortality. Here we show SOA is strongly associated with county-level cardiorespiratory death rates in the U.S. independent of the total PM2.5 mass association with the largest associations located in the southeastern U.S. Compared to PM2.5, county-level variability in SOA across the U.S. is associated with 3.5× greater per capita county-level cardiorespiratory mortality. On a per mass basis, SOA is associated with a 6.5× higher rate of mortality than PM2.5, and biogenic and anthropogenic carbon sources both play a role in the overall SOA association with mortality. Our results suggest reducing the health impacts of PM2.5 requires consideration of SOA. Fine particle air pollution causes premature death, but the role of different fine particle components in mortality is not well characterized. Here, the authors show the secondary organic aerosol component of fine particle mass is associated with significant cardiorespiratory mortality in the U.S. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The exposure of populations to sea-level rise (SLR) is a leading indicator assessing the impact of future climate change on coastal regions. SLR exposes coastal populations to a spectrum of impacts with broad spatial and temporal heterogeneity, but exposure assessments often narrowly define the spatial zone of flooding. Here we show how choice of zone results in differential exposure estimates across space and time. Further, we apply a spatio-temporal flood-modeling approach that integrates across these spatial zones to assess the annual probability of population exposure. We apply our model to the coastal United States to demonstrate a more robust assessment of population exposure to flooding from SLR in any given year. Our results suggest that more explicit decisions regarding spatial zone (and associated temporal implication) will improve adaptation planning and policies by indicating the relative chance and magnitude of coastal populations to be affected by future SLR. The exposure of populations to sea-level rise is a leading indicator assessing the impact of future climate change on coastal regions. The authors identify three spatial zones of flooding such as mean higher water, the 100 year floodplain and the low-elevation coastal zone and show population exposure can differ between those zones. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Air pollution may increase risk of Alzheimer's disease and related dementias (ADRD) in the U.S., but the extent of this relationship is unclear. Here, we constructed two national U.S. population-based cohorts of those aged ≥65 from the Medicare Chronic Conditions Warehouse (2000–2018), combined with high-resolution air pollution datasets, to investigate the association of long-term exposure to ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and ozone (O3) with dementia and AD incidence, respectively. We identified ~2.0 million incident dementia cases (N = 12,233,371; dementia cohort) and ~0.8 million incident AD cases (N = 12,456,447; AD cohort). Per interquartile range (IQR) increase in the 5-year average PM2.5 (3.2 µg/m3), NO2 (11.6 ppb), and warm-season O3 (5.3 ppb) over the past 5 years prior to diagnosis, the hazard ratios (HRs) were 1.060 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.054, 1.066), 1.019 (95% CI: 1.012, 1.026), and 0.990 (95% CI: 0.987, 0.993) for incident dementias, and 1.078 (95% CI: 1.070, 1.086), 1.031 (95% CI: 1.023, 1.039), and 0.982 (95%CI: 0.977, 0.986) for incident AD, respectively, for the three pollutants. For both outcomes, concentration-response relationships for PM2.5 and NO2 were approximately linear. Our study suggests that exposures to PM2.5 and NO2 are associated with incidence of dementia and AD. Air pollution has been linked to neurodegenerative disease. Here the authors carried out a population-based cohort study to investigate the association between long-term exposure to PM2.5, NO2, and warm-season O3 on dementia and Alzheimer's disease incidence in the United States. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to climate change, plant populations experience environmental conditions to which they are not adapted. Our understanding of the next century's vegetation geography depends on the distance, direction, and rate at which plant distributions shift in response to a changing climate. In this study we test the sensitivity of tree range shifts (measured as the difference between seedling and mature tree ranges in climate space) to wildfire occurrence, using 74,069 Forest Inventory Analysis plots across nine states in the western United States. Wildfire significantly increased the seedling-only range displacement for 2 of the 8 tree species in which seedling-only plots were displaced from tree-plus-seedling plots in the same direction with and without recent fire. The direction of climatic displacement was consistent with that expected for warmer and drier conditions. The greater seedling-only range displacement observed across burned plots suggests that fire can accelerate climate-related range shifts and that fire and fire management will play a role in the rate of vegetation redistribution in response to climate change. Tree species that are expanding their distribution in response to climate change could be hindered or facilitated by disturbances. Here the authors analyse forest inventory data from the western US to test the hypothesis that wildfire can facilitate climate-induced range shifts in trees. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Clostridium difficile causes life-threatening diarrhea and is the leading cause of healthcare-associated bacterial infections in the United States. TcdA and TcdB bacterial toxins are primary determinants of disease pathogenesis and are attractive therapeutic targets. TcdA and TcdB contain domains that use UDP-glucose to glucosylate and inactivate host Rho GTPases, resulting in cytoskeletal changes causing cell rounding and loss of intestinal integrity. Transition state analysis revealed glucocationic character for the TcdA and TcdB transition states. We identified transition state analogue inhibitors and characterized them by kinetic, thermodynamic and structural analysis. Iminosugars, isofagomine and noeuromycin mimic the transition state and inhibit both TcdA and TcdB by forming ternary complexes with Tcd and UDP, a product of the TcdA- and TcdB-catalyzed reactions. Both iminosugars prevent TcdA- and TcdB-induced cytotoxicity in cultured mammalian cells by preventing glucosylation of Rho GTPases. Iminosugar transition state analogues of the Tcd toxins show potential as therapeutics for C. difficile pathology. The Clostridium difficile virulence factors TcdA and TcdB contain a glucosyltransferase domain (GTD), which has both glucohydrolase (GH) and glucosyltransferase (GT) activities. Here, the authors characterize the transition state features of the TcdA and TcdB GH reactions by measuring kinetic isotope effects and they identify two transition state analogues, isofagomine and noeuromycin that inhibit TcdA and TcdB. They also present the crystal structures of TcdB-GTD bound to these inhibitors and the reaction product UDP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Judgments of whether an action is morally wrong depend on who is involved and the nature of their relationship. But how, when, and why social relationships shape moral judgments is not well understood. We provide evidence to address these questions, measuring cooperative expectations and moral wrongness judgments in the context of common social relationships such as romantic partners, housemates, and siblings. In a pre-registered study of 423 U.S. participants nationally representative for age, race, and gender, we show that people normatively expect different relationships to serve cooperative functions of care, hierarchy, reciprocity, and mating to varying degrees. In a second pre-registered study of 1,320 U.S. participants, these relationship-specific cooperative expectations (i.e., relational norms) enable highly precise out-of-sample predictions about the perceived moral wrongness of actions in the context of particular relationships. In this work, we show that this 'relational norms' model better predicts patterns of moral wrongness judgments across relationships than alternative models based on genetic relatedness, social closeness, or interdependence, demonstrating how the perceived morality of actions depends not only on the actions themselves, but also on the relational context in which those actions occur. Moral judgments depend on relational context, with different normative cooperative expectations – relational norms – embedded in different social relationships, such as parent-child, romantic partners, siblings, or acquaintances. Here, the authors show how relational norms for care, hierarchy, reciprocity, and mating are embedded in a set of everyday social relationships in the United States, and use this information to predict out-of-sample moral judgments in relational context. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Methane (CH4) emissions from oil and natural gas (O&NG) systems are an important contributor to greenhouse gas emissions. In the United States, recent synthesis studies of field measurements of CH4 emissions at different spatial scales are ~1.5–2× greater compared to official greenhouse gas inventory (GHGI) estimates, with the production-segment as the dominant contributor to this divergence. Based on an updated synthesis of measurements from component-level field studies, we develop a new inventory-based model for CH4 emissions, for the production-segment only, that agrees within error with recent syntheses of site-level field studies and allows for isolation of equipment-level contributions. We find that unintentional emissions from liquid storage tanks and other equipment leaks are the largest contributors to divergence with the GHGI. If our proposed method were adopted in the United States and other jurisdictions, inventory estimates could better guide CH4 mitigation policy priorities. Methane emissions from oil and gas systems are underestimated in official inventories. Here the authors synthesize thousands of field measurements and develop an inventory-based model for a better understanding of why this underestimation exists and how it can be fixed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many households in the United States face issues of incomplete plumbing and poor water quality. Prior scholarship on this issue has focused on one dimension of water hardship at a time, leaving the full picture incomplete. Here we complete this picture by documenting the full scope of water hardship in the United States and find evidence of a regionally-clustered, socially unequal nationwide household water crisis. Using data from the American Community Survey and the Environmental Protection Agency, we show there are 489,836 households lacking complete plumbing, 1,165 community water systems in Safe Drinking Water Act Serious Violation, and 21,035 Clean Water Act permittees in Significant Noncompliance. Further, we demonstrate this crisis is regionally clustered, with the specific spatial pattern varying by the specific form of water hardship. Elevated levels of water hardship are associated with the social dimensions of rurality, poverty, indigeneity, education, and age—representing a nationwide environmental injustice. Proper water and sanitation access remains an issue for many in the United States. Here the authors estimate and map the full scope of water hardship, including both incomplete plumbing and water quality across the country. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The recent emergence of strains of Neisseria gonorrhoeae associated with treatment failures to ceftriaxone, the foundation of current treatment options, has raised concerns over a future of untreatable gonorrhea. Current global data on gonococcal strains suggest that several lineages, predominately characterized by mosaic penA alleles, are associated with elevated minimum inhibitory concentrations (MICs) to extended spectrum cephalosporins (ESCs). Here we report on whole genome sequences of 813 N. gonorrhoeae isolates collected through the Gonococcal Isolate Surveillance Project in the United States. Phylogenomic analysis revealed that one persisting lineage (Clade A, multi-locus sequence type [MLST] ST1901) with mosaic penA-34 alleles, contained the majority of isolates with elevated MICs to ESCs. We provide evidence that an ancestor to the globally circulating MLST ST1901 clones potentially emerged around the early to mid-20th century (1944, credibility intervals [CI]: 1935–1953), predating the introduction of cephalosporins, but coinciding with the use of penicillin. Such results indicate that drugs with novel mechanisms of action are needed as these strains continue to persist and disseminate globally. Resistance of Neisseria gonorrhoeae to extended spectrum cephalosporins is an increasing concern. Here, the authors conduct whole genome sequencing of isolates from the United States and find that most resistant isolates were associated with a persistent circulating lineage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID-19 pandemic is causing mass disruption to our daily lives. We integrate mobility data from mobile devices and area-level data to study the walking patterns of 1.62 million anonymous users in 10 metropolitan areas in the United States. The data covers the period from mid-February 2020 (pre-lockdown) to late June 2020 (easing of lockdown restrictions). We detect when users were walking, distance walked and time of the walk, and classify each walk as recreational or utilitarian. Our results reveal dramatic declines in walking, particularly utilitarian walking, while recreational walking has recovered and even surpassed pre-pandemic levels. Our findings also demonstrate important social patterns, widening existing inequalities in walking behavior. COVID-19 response measures have a larger impact on walking behavior for those from low-income areas and high use of public transportation. Provision of equal opportunities to support walking is key to opening up our society and economy. Mobility restrictions implemented to reduce the spread of COVID-19 have significantly impacted walking behavior. In this study, the authors integrated mobility data from mobile devices and area-level data to study the walking patterns of 1.62 million anonymous users in 10 US metropolitan areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) remain the only widely available tool for controlling the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. We estimated weekly values of the effective basic reproductive number (Reff) using a mechanistic metapopulation model and associated these with county-level characteristics and NPIs in the United States (US). Interventions that included school and leisure activities closure and nursing home visiting bans were all associated with a median Reff below 1 when combined with either stay at home orders (median Reff 0.97, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.58–1.39) or face masks (median Reff 0.97, 95% CI 0.58–1.39). While direct causal effects of interventions remain unclear, our results suggest that relaxation of some NPIs will need to be counterbalanced by continuation and/or implementation of others. Disentangling the impacts of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 transmission is challenging as they have been used in different combinations across time and space. This study shows that, early in the epidemic, school/daycare closures and stopping nursing home visits were associated with the biggest reduction in transmission in the United States. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Addressing how ecosystem services (ES) are distributed among groups of people is critical for making conservation and environmental policy-making more equitable. Here, we evaluate the distribution and equity of changes in ES benefits across demographic and socioeconomic groups in the United States (US) between 2020 and 2100. Specifically, we use land cover and population projections to model potential shifts in the supply, demand, and benefits of the following ES: provision of clean air, protection against a vector-borne disease (West Nile virus), and crop pollination. Across the US, changes in ES benefits are unevenly distributed among socioeconomic and demographic groups and among rural and urban communities, but are relatively uniform across geographic regions. In general, non-white, lower-income, and urban populations disproportionately bear the burden of declines in ES benefits. This is largely driven by the conversion of forests and wetlands to cropland and urban land cover in counties where these populations are expected to grow. In these locations, targeted land use policy interventions are required to avoid exacerbating inequalities already present in the US. Social inequalities may be reflected in how ecosystem services are distributed among groups of people. Here the authors estimate the distribution of three ecosystem services across demographic and socioeconomic groups in the US between 2020 and 2100, finding that non-white and lower-income groups disproportionately bear the loss of ecosystem service benefits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Social distancing remains an important strategy to combat the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. However, the impacts of specific state-level policies on mobility and subsequent COVID-19 case trajectories have not been completely quantified. Using anonymized and aggregated mobility data from opted-in Google users, we found that state-level emergency declarations resulted in a 9.9% reduction in time spent away from places of residence. Implementation of one or more social distancing policies resulted in an additional 24.5% reduction in mobility the following week, and subsequent shelter-in-place mandates yielded an additional 29.0% reduction. Decreases in mobility were associated with substantial reductions in case growth two to four weeks later. For example, a 10% reduction in mobility was associated with a 17.5% reduction in case growth two weeks later. Given the continued reliance on social distancing policies to limit the spread of COVID-19, these results may be helpful to public health officials trying to balance infection control with the economic and social consequences of these policies. In response to COVID-19, many states have implemented social distancing orders, but the effect of these orders on population mobility has not been fully quantified. Here, the authors use data from the US to show that state-level social distancing orders substantially reduced mobility and limited the spread of disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Initial COVID-19 containment in the United States focused on limiting mobility, including school and workplace closures. However, these interventions have had enormous societal and economic costs. Here, we demonstrate the feasibility of an alternative control strategy, test-trace-quarantine: routine testing of primarily symptomatic individuals, tracing and testing their known contacts, and placing their contacts in quarantine. We perform this analysis using Covasim, an open-source agent-based model, which has been calibrated to detailed demographic, mobility, and epidemiological data for the Seattle region from January through June 2020. With current levels of mask use and schools remaining closed, we find that high but achievable levels of testing and tracing are sufficient to maintain epidemic control even under a return to full workplace and community mobility and with low vaccine coverage. The easing of mobility restrictions in June 2020 and subsequent scale-up of testing and tracing programs through September provided real-world validation of our predictions. Although we show that test-trace-quarantine can control the epidemic in both theory and practice, its success is contingent on high testing and tracing rates, high quarantine compliance, relatively short testing and tracing delays, and moderate to high mask use. Thus, in order for test-trace-quarantine to control transmission with a return to high mobility, strong performance in all aspects of the program is required. Initial COVID-19 containment in the United States focused on limiting mobility, including school and workplace closures, with enormous societal and economic costs. Here, the authors demonstrate the feasibility of a test-trace-quarantine strategy using an agent-based model and detailed data on the Seattle region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Influenza forecasting in the United States (US) is complex and challenging due to spatial and temporal variability, nested geographic scales of interest, and heterogeneous surveillance participation. Here we present Dante, a multiscale influenza forecasting model that learns rather than prescribes spatial, temporal, and surveillance data structure and generates coherent forecasts across state, regional, and national scales. We retrospectively compare Dante's short-term and seasonal forecasts for previous flu seasons to the Dynamic Bayesian Model (DBM), a leading competitor. Dante outperformed DBM for nearly all spatial units, flu seasons, geographic scales, and forecasting targets. Dante's sharper and more accurate forecasts also suggest greater public health utility. Dante placed 1st in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's prospective 2018/19 FluSight challenge in both the national and regional competition and the state competition. The methodology underpinning Dante can be used in other seasonal disease forecasting contexts having nested geographic scales of interest. Influenza forecasting in the United States is challenging and consequential, with the ability to improve the public health response. Here the authors show the performance of the multiscale flu forecasting model, Dante, that won the CDC's 2018/19 national, regional and state flu forecasting challenges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Superfund sites could affect life expectancy (LE) via increasing the likelihood of exposure to toxic chemicals. Here, we assess to what extent such presence could alter the LE independently and in the context of sociodemographic determinants. A nationwide geocoded statistical modeling at the census tract level was undertaken to estimate the magnitude of impact. Results showed a significant difference in LE among census tracts with at least one Superfund site and their neighboring tracts with no sites. The presence of a Superfund site could cause a decrease of −0.186 ± 0.027 years in LE. This adverse effect could be as high as −1.22 years in tracts with Superfund sites and high sociodemographic disadvantage. Specific characteristics of Superfund sites such as being prone to flooding and the absence of a cleanup strategy could amplify the adverse effect. Furthermore, the presence of Superfund sites amplifies the negative influence of sociodemographic factors at lower LEs. Superfund sites have hazardous wastes that could affect the health of those who live near them, but this has not been assessed across the USA. Here the authors find that proximity to superfund sites decreases life expectancy and is further exacerbated by sociodemographic and climate change factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Long-term temperature change and variability are expected to have significant impacts on future electric capacity and investments. This study improves upon past studies by accounting for hourly and monthly dynamics of electricity use, long-term socioeconomic drivers, and interactions of the electric sector with rest of the economy for a comprehensive analysis of temperature change impacts on cooling and heating services and their corresponding impact on electric capacity and investments. Using the United States as an example, here we show that under a scenario consistent with a socioeconomic pathway 2 (SSP2) and representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP 8.5), mean temperature changes drive increases in annual electricity demands by 0.5-8% across states in 2100. But more importantly, peak temperature changes drive increases in capital investments by 3-22%. Moreover, temperature-induced capital investments are highly sensitive to both long-term socioeconomic assumptions and spatial heterogeneity of fuel prices and capital stock characteristics, which underscores the importance of a comprehensive approach to inform long-term electric sector planning. Temperature changes as a result of climate change are expected to impact electric capacity and investment. Here, the authors show that in the United States under socioeconomic pathway 2 and RCP 8.5 mean temperature rises will drive increased electricity demand (0.5-8%) by 2100, along increases in capital investments by 3-22%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changing forest disturbance regimes and climate are driving accelerated tree mortality across temperate forests. However, it remains unknown if elevated mortality has induced decline of tree populations and the ecological, economic, and social benefits they provide. Here, we develop a standardized forest demographic index and use it to quantify trends in tree population dynamics over the last two decades in the western United States. The rate and pattern of change we observe across species and tree size-distributions is alarming and often undesirable. We observe significant population decline in a majority of species examined, show decline was particularly severe, albeit size-dependent, among subalpine tree species, and provide evidence of widespread shifts in the size-structure of montane forests. Our findings offer a stark warning of changing forest composition and structure across the western US, and suggest that sustained anthropogenic and natural stress will likely result in broad-scale transformation of temperate forests globally. The nature of forest disturbances are changing, yet consequences for forest dynamics remain uncertain. Using a new index, Stanke et al. show the populations of over half of the most abundant tree species in the western US have declined in the last two decades, with grim implications for how temperate forests globally will respond to sustained anthropogenic and natural stress. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Habitat alteration can influence suitability, creating ecological traps where habitat preference and fitness are mismatched. Despite their importance, ecological traps are notoriously difficult to identify and their impact on host–pathogen dynamics remains largely unexplored. Here we assess individual bat survival and habitat preferences in the midwestern United States before, during, and after the invasion of the fungal pathogen that causes white-nose syndrome. Despite strong selection pressures, most hosts continued to select habitats where disease severity was highest and survival was lowest, causing continued population declines. However, some individuals used refugia where survival was higher. Over time, a higher proportion of the total population used refugia than before pathogen arrival. Our results demonstrate that host preferences for habitats with high disease-induced mortality can create ecological traps that threaten populations, even in the presence of accessible refugia. Temperature-dependent host–pathogen interactions may lead species to shift their thermal preferences under pathogen pressure. However, here the authors show that bats have not altered their microclimate preferences due to temperature-mediated mortality from white-nose syndrome, finding instead a sustained preference for warmer sites with high mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The extent of SARS-CoV-2 infection throughout the United States population is currently unknown. High quality serology is key to avoiding medically costly diagnostic errors, as well as to assuring properly informed public health decisions. Here, we present an optimized ELISA-based serology protocol, from antigen production to data analyses, that helps define thresholds for IgG and IgM seropositivity with high specificities. Validation of this protocol is performed using traditionally collected serum as well as dried blood on mail-in blood sampling kits. Archival (pre-2019) samples are used as negative controls, and convalescent, PCR-diagnosed COVID-19 patient samples serve as positive controls. Using this protocol, minimal cross-reactivity is observed for the spike proteins of MERS, SARS1, OC43 and HKU1 viruses, and no cross reactivity is observed with anti-influenza A H1N1 HAI. Our protocol may thus help provide standardized, population-based data on the extent of SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity, immunity and infection. Understanding the infection parameters and host responses against SARS-CoV-2 require data from large cohorts using standardized methods. Here, the authors optimize a serum ELISA protocol that has minimal cross-reactivity and flexible sample collection workflow in an attempt to standardize data generation and help inform on COVID-19 pandemic and immunity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Energy affects every single individual and entity in the world. Therefore, it is crucial to precisely quantify the "price of energy" and study how it evolves through time, through major political and social events, and through changes in energy and monetary policies. Here, we develop a predictive framework, an index to calculate the average price of energy in the United States. The complex energy landscape is thoroughly analysed to accurately determine the two key factors of this framework: the total demand of the energy products directed to the end-use sectors, and the corresponding price of each product. A rolling horizon predictive methodology is introduced to estimate future energy demands, with excellent predictive capability, shown over a period of 174 months. The effectiveness of the framework is demonstrated by addressing two policy questions of significant public interest. Global energy transformation requires quantifying the "price of energy" and studying its evolution. Here the authors present a predictive framework that calculates the average US price of energy, estimating future energy demands for up to four years with excellent accuracy, designing and optimizing energy and monetary policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Functional food webs are essential for the successful conservation of ecological communities, and in terrestrial systems, food webs are built on a foundation of coevolved interactions between plants and their consumers. Here, we collate published data on host plant ranges and associated host plant-Lepidoptera interactions from across the contiguous United States and demonstrate that among ecosystems, distributions of plant-herbivore interactions are consistently skewed, with a small percentage of plant genera supporting the majority of Lepidoptera. Plant identities critical for retaining interaction diversity are similar and independent of geography. Given the importance of Lepidoptera to food webs and ecosystem function, efficient and effective restoration of degraded landscapes depends on the inclusion of such 'keystone' plants. Not all plants are equally able to support native insects. Here, the authors use data on interactions among >12,000 Lepidoptera species and >2000 plant genera across the United States, showing that few plant genera host the majority of Lepidoptera species; this information is used to suggest priorities for plant restoration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]