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Background: CD4 cell counts is widely used as a biomarker for treatment progression when studying the efficacy of drugs to treat HIV-infected patients. In the past, it had been also used in determining eligibility to initiate antiretroviral therapy. The main aim of this was to model the evolution of CD4 counts over time and use this model for an early prediction of subject-specific time to cross a pre-specified CD4 threshold. Methods: Hospital based retrospective cohort study of HIV-infected patients was conducted from January 2009 to December 2014 at University of Gondar hospital, Northwest Ethiopia. Fractional polynomial random effect model is used to model the evolution of CD4 counts over time in response to treatment and to estimate the individual probability to be above a pre-selected CD4 threshold. Human subject research approval for this study was received from University of Gondar Research Ethics Committee and the medical director of the hospital. Results: A total of 1347 patients were included in the analysis presented in this paper. The cohort contributed a total of 236.58 per 100 person-years of follow-up. Later the data were divided into two periods: the first is the estimation period in which the parameters of the model are estimated and the second is the prediction period. Based on the parameters from the estimation period, model based prediction for the time to cross a threshold was estimated. The correlations between observed and predicted values of CD4 levels in the estimation period were 0.977 and 0.982 for Neverapine and Efavirenz containing regimens, respectively; while the correlation between the observed and predicted CD4 counts in the prediction period are 0.742 and 0.805 for NVP and EFV, respectively. Conclusions: The model enables us to estimate a subject-specific expected time to cross a CD4 threshold and to estimate a subject-specific probability to have CD4 count above a pre-specified threshold at each time point. By predicting long-term outcomes of CD4 count of the patients one can advise patient about the potential ART benefits that accrue in the long-term. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reducing child undernutrition is a key social policy objective of the Ethiopian government. Despite substantial reduction over the last decade and a half, child undernutrition is still high; with 48 percent of children either stunted, underweight or wasted, undernutrition remains an important child health challenge. The existing literature highlights that targeting of efforts to reduce undernutrition in Ethiopia is inefficient, in part due to lack of data and updated information. This paper remedies some of this shortfall by estimating levels of stunting and underweight in each woreda for 2014. The estimates are small area estimations based on the 2014 Demographic and Health Survey and the latest population census. It is shown that small area estimations are powerful predictors of undernutrition, even compared to household characteristics, such as wealth and education, and hence a valuable targeting metric. The results show large variations in share of children undernourished within each region, more than between regions. The results also show that the locations with larger challenges depend on the chosen undernutrition statistic, as the share, number and concentration of undernourished children point to vastly different locations. There is also limited correlation between share of children underweight and stunted across woredas, indicating that different locations face different challenges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study assessed households’ resilience to climate change-induced shocks in Dinki watershed, northcentral highlands of Ethiopia. The data were collected through a cross-sectional survey conducted on 288 households, three focus group discussions, and 15 key informant interviews. The Climate Resilience Index (CRI) based on the three resilience capacities (absorptive, adaptive and transformative) frame was used to measure households’ resilience to climate change-induced shocks on an agro-ecological unit of analysis. A principal component analysis (PCA) and multiple regression analysis were used to identify determinant factors and indicators to households’ resilience, respectively. Findings indicate that the indexed scores of major components clearly differentiated the study communities in terms of their agro-ecological zones. Specifically, the absorptive capacity (0.495) was the leading contributing factor to resilience followed by adaptive (0.449) and transformative (0.387) capacities. Likewise, the Midland was relatively more resilient with a mean index value of 0.461. Both the PCA and multiple regression analysis indicated that access to and use of livelihood resources, such as farmlands and livestock holdings, diversity of income sources, infrastructure and social capital were determinants of households’ resilience. In general, it might be due to their exposure to recurrent shocks coupled with limited adaptive capacities including underdeveloped public services, poor livelihood diversification practices, among others, the study communities showed minimal resilience capacity with a mean score of 0.44. Thus, in addition to short-term buffering strategies, intervention priority focusing on both adaptive and transformative capacities, particularly focusing on most vulnerable localities and constrained livelihood strategies, would contribute to ensuring long-term resilience in the study communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Several studies reported that the majority of deaths in HIV-infected people are documented in their early antiretroviral therapy (ART) follow-ups. Early mortality refers to death of people on ART for follow up period of below 24 months due to any cause. The current study assessed predictors of early HIV mortality in Southwest Ethiopia. Methods: We have conducted a retrospective analysis of 5299 patient records dating from June 2003- March 2015. To estimate survival time and compare the time to event among the different groups of patients, we used a Kaplan Meir curve and log-rank test. To identify mortality predictors, we used a cox regression analysis. We used SPSS-20 for all analyses. Results: A total of 326 patients died in the 12 years follow-up period contributing to 6.2% cumulative incidence and 21.7 deaths per 1000 person-year observations incidence rate. Eighty-nine percent of the total deaths were documented in the first two years follow up—an early-term ART follow up. Early HIV mortality rates among adults were 50% less in separated, divorced or widowed patients compared with never married patients, 1.6 times higher in patients with baseline CD4 count <200 cells/μL compared to baseline CD4 count ≥200 cells/μL, 1.5 times higher in patients with baseline WHO clinical stage 3 or 4 compared to baseline WHO clinical stage 1 or 2, 2.1 times higher in patients with immunologic failure compared with no immunologic failure, 60% less in patients with fair or poor compared with good adherence, 2.9 times higher in patients with bedridden functional status compared to working functional status, and 2.7 times higher with patients who had no history of HIV testing before diagnosis compared to those who had history of HIV testing. Most predictors of early mortality remained the same to the predictors of an overall HIV mortality. When discontinuation was assumed as an event, the predictors of an overall HIV mortality included age between 25–50 years, base line CD4 count, developing immunologic failure, bedridden functional status, and no history of HIV testing before diagnosis. Conclusions: The great majority of deaths were documented in the first two years of ART, and several predictors of early HIV mortality were also for the overall mortality when discontinuation was assumed as event or censored. Considering the above population, interventions to improve HIV program in the first two years of ART follow up should be improved. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Discontinuation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) reduces the immunological benefit of treatment and increases complications related to human immune-deficiency virus (HIV). However, the risk factors for ART discontinuation are poorly understood in developing countries particularly in Ethiopia. This review aimed to assess the best available evidence regarding risk factors for ART discontinuation in Ethiopia. Methods: Quantitative studies conducted in Ethiopia between 2002 and 2015 that evaluated factors associated with ART discontinuation were sought across six major databases. Only English language articles were included. This review considered studies that included the following outcome: ART treatment discontinuation, i.e. ‘lost to follow up’, ‘defaulting’ and ‘stopping medication’. Meta- analysis was performed with Mantel Haenszel method using Revman-5 software. Summary statistics were expressed as pooled odds ratio with 95% confidence intervals at a p-value of <0.05. Results: Nine (9) studies met the criteria of the search. Five (5) were retrospective studies, 3 were case control studies, and 1 was a prospective cohort study. The total sample size in the included studies was 62,156. Being rural dweller (OR = 2.1, 95%CI: 1.5–2.7, I2 = 60%), being illiterate (OR = 1.5, 95%CI: 1.1–2.1), being not married (OR = 1.4, 95%CI: 1.1–1.8), being alcohol drinker (OR = 2.9, 95%CI: 1.9–4.4, I2 = 39%), being tobacco smoker (OR = 2.6, 95%CI: 1.6–4.3, I2 = 74%), having mental illness (OR = 2.7, 95%CI: 1.6–4.6, I2 = 0%) and being bed ridden functional status (OR = 2.3, 95%CI: 1.5–3.4, I2 = 37%) were risk factors for ART discontinuation. Whereas, having HIV positive partner (OR = 0.4, 95%CI: 0.3–0.6, I2 = 69%) and being co-infected with Tb/HIV (OR = 0.6, 95%CI: 0.4–0.9, I2 = 0%) were protective factors. Conclusion: Demographic, behavioral and clinical factors influenced ART treatment discontinuation. Hence, we recommend strengthening decentralization of HIV care services in remote areas, strengthening of ART task shifting, application of seek-test-treat-succeed model, and integration of smoking cession strategies and mental health care into the routine HIV care program. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Mental illnesses worldwide are accompanied by another pandemic, that of stigma and discrimination. Public understanding about mental illnesses and attitudes towards people with mental illness play a paramount role in the prevention and treatment of mental illness and the rehabilitation of people with mental illness. Objective: To assess community attitude and associated factors towards people with mental illness. Methods: Community based cross-sectional study was conducted from April 28 to May 28, 2014. Quantitative data were collected through interview from 435 adults selected using simple random sampling. Data were collected using community attitude towards mentally ill (CAMI) tool to assess community attitude towards people with mental illness and associated factors. Multiple linear regression analysis was performed to identify predictors of community attitude towards people with mental illness and the level of significance association was determined by beta with 95% confidence interval and P less than 0.05. Results: The highest mean score was on social restrictiveness subscale (31.55±5.62). Farmers had more socially restrictive view (β = 0.291, CI [0.09, 0.49]) and have less humanistic view towards mentally ill (β = 0.193, CI [-0.36, -0.03]). Having mental health information had significantly less socially restrictive (β = -0.59, CI [-1.13, -0.05]) and less authoritarian (β = -0.10, CI [-1.11, -0.06]) view towards mentally ill but respondents who are at university or college level reported to be more socially restrictive (β = 0.298, CI [0.059, 0.54]). Respondents whose age is above 48 years old had significantly less view of community mental health ideology (β = -0.59, CI [-1.09, -0.08]). Conclusion and Recommendation: Residents of Worabe town were highly socially restrictive but less authoritarian. There was high level of negative attitude towards people with mental illness along all the subscales with relative variation indicating a need to develop strategies to change negative attitude attached to mental illness in Worabe town at community level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]