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Background: Climate change is arguably a major threat to biodiversity conservation and there are several methods to assess its impacts on species potential distribution. Yet the extent to which different approaches on species distribution modeling affect species richness patterns at biogeographical scale is however unaddressed in literature. In this paper, we verified if the expected responses to climate change in biogeographical scale—patterns of species richness and species vulnerability to climate change—are affected by the inputs used to model and project species distribution. Methods: We modeled the distribution of 288 vertebrate species (amphibians, birds and mammals), all endemic to the Amazon basin, using different combinations of the following inputs known to affect the outcome of species distribution models (SDMs): 1) biological data type, 2) modeling methods, 3) greenhouse gas emission scenarios and 4) climate forecasts. We calculated uncertainty with a hierarchical ANOVA in which those different inputs were considered factors. Results: The greatest source of variation was the modeling method. Model performance interacted with data type and modeling method. Absolute values of variation on suitable climate area were not equal among predictions, but some biological patterns were still consistent. All models predicted losses on the area that is climatically suitable for species, especially for amphibians and primates. All models also indicated a current East-western gradient on endemic species richness, from the Andes foot downstream the Amazon river. Again, all models predicted future movements of species upwards the Andes mountains and overall species richness losses. Conclusions: From a methodological perspective, our work highlights that SDMs are a useful tool for assessing impacts of climate change on biodiversity. Uncertainty exists but biological patterns are still evident at large spatial scales. As modeling methods are the greatest source of variation, choosing the appropriate statistics according to the study objective is also essential for estimating the impacts of climate change on species distribution. Yet from a conservation perspective, we show that Amazon endemic fauna is potentially vulnerable to climate change, due to expected reductions on suitable climate area. Climate-driven faunal movements are predicted towards the Andes mountains, which might work as climate refugia for migrating species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

High flows are major disturbances in streams and cause benthic communities to vary temporally. Meltwater runoff in glacier-fed streams at temperate-arctic latitudes primarily follows a strong seasonal pattern. In contrast, such streams at the equator show less seasonal, but more-pronounced diel variability in discharge that tracks a year-round diurnal melting-nocturnal freezing cycle of glaciers. Consequently, qualitative and quantitative differences in temporal variability of macrobenthos communities should be expected between highlatitude and tropical glacier-fed streams. We explored temporal variability in density, taxon richness, and community composition of benthic macroinvertebrates and analyzed community responses to flow events at 3 sites along a glacier-fed stream in equatorial Ecuador (0.05, 1.6, and 4.3 km from the glacier front). We obtained continuous flow recordings and sampled fauna at approximately quarterly intervals over 30 mo. Temporal variability in the fauna was aseasonal. However, the overall magnitude of the coefficient of variability (CV) at the 3 sites was not lower than the CV at temperate latitudes. The explanatory power of flow did not differ among discharge parameters 3, 6, 9, 21, and 45 d before sampling. The effect of flow (slopes of regressions of faunal metrics vs flow) did not differ among sites, but the amount of variation explained by flow was significant only at the 2 downstream sites. Little synchrony was found in variability among sites, possibly because of differences among sites in physical characteristics (e.g., refugia space), which moderated the effect of disturbances, and taxonomic composition of communities. Our study is the first to show a close link between hydrological and biological fluctuations in an equatorial glacier-fed stream, a prerequisite for subsequent predictions of consequences of tropical glacier melting on diversity, composition, and stability of stream communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The scattered and dwindling Polylepis woodlands of the high Andean global hotspot have been identified as being of particular importance to biodiversity conservation, and yet little is known of the make-up of their faunal communities, how these vary across landscapes, and how well species might tolerate matrix/edge habitats. We examined the bird communities and vegetation characteristics of Polylepis woodlands and the surrounding matrix habitats at three sites in the Cordillera Vilcanota, southern Perú (3,400-4,500 m). The vegetation structure of woodlands varied significantly across the three sites but all were dominated by two Polylepis tree species, with mossy ground cover. Matrix habitats were treeless and dominated by ground-level puna grass-steppe or boulder scree vegetation. Bird species richness and diversity, encounter rates and the number of globally-threatened and restricted-range bird species were consistently higher in the Polylepis forests, than in matrix habitat. We used canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) to identify habitat gradients across the landscape, and to classify bird species according to their association with Polylepis, the matrix or Polylepis-matrix interface. There were few matrix-restricted bird species, but around half the bird community, including fourteen threatened or restricted-range species, were Polylepis-dependant. Many of these species had very narrow niches. The Polylepis-matrix interface was dominated by species traditionally considered invasive ecological generalists. Our study illustrates the overriding importance of Polylepis interior habitats, indicating that conservation strategies for high Andean birds must focus on patch size maintenance/enlargement, enhancement of within-patch habitat quality, and efforts to safeguard connectivity of suitable habitat across what is essentially an inhospitable puna/scree matrix. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]