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This paper presents an innovative approach to addressing critical global challenges in long-term energy planning for low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The paper proposes and tests an international enabling environment, a delivery ecosystem, and a community of practice. These components are integrated into workflows that yield four self-sustaining capacity-development outcomes. Planning long-term energy strategies in LMICs is particularly challenging due to limited national agency and poor international coordination. While outsourcing energy planning to foreign experts may appear to be a viable solution, it can lead to a reduction in government agency (the ability of a government to make its own informed analysis and decisions). Additionally, studies commissioned by external experts may have conflicting terms of reference, and a lack of familiarity with local conditions can result in misrepresentations of on-the-ground realities. It is argued here that enhancing national agency and analytical capacity can improve coordination and lead to more robust planning across line ministries and technical assistance (TA) providers. Moreover, the prevailing consulting model hampers the release and accessibility of underlying analytics, making it difficult to retrieve, reuse, and reconstruct consultant outputs. The absence of interoperability among outputs from various consultants hinders the ability to combine and audit the insights they provide. To overcome these challenges, five strategic principles for energy planning in LMICs have been introduced and developed in collaboration with 21 international and research organizations, including the AfDB, IEA, IRENA, IAEA, UNDP, UNECA, the World Bank, and WRI. These principles prioritize national ownership, coherence and inclusivity, capacity, robustness, transparency and accessibility. In this enabling environment, a unique delivery ecosystem consisting of knowledge products and activities is established. The paper focuses on two key knowledge products as examples of this ecosystem: the open-source energy modeling system (OSeMOSYS) and the power system flexibility tool (IRENA FlexTool). These ecosystem elements are designed to meet user-friendliness, retrievability, reusability, reconstructability, repeatability, interoperability, and audibility (U4RIA) goals. To ensure the sustainability of this ecosystem, OpTIMUS is introduced—a community of practice dedicated to maintaining, supporting, expanding, and nurturing the elements within the ecosystem. Among other ecosystem elements, training and research initiatives are introduced, namely the Energy Modelling Platform for Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Asia-Pacific as well as the ICTP Joint Summer School on Modelling Tools for Sustainable Development. Once deployed via workflows, the preliminary outcomes of these capacity-development learning pathways show promise. Further investigation is necessary to evaluate their long-term impacts, scalability, replication, and deployment costs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rainfall in the Moist Tropical Caribbean Region (MTCR) in Costa Rica occurs practically throughout the year, with the quarters June–August (JJA) and December–February (DJF) concentrating over 70% of annual rainfall. Contrarily, in March–April and September–October, it rains below 100 mm per month. This seasonal rainfall behavior makes the region ideal for producing bananas (Musa spp.) and pineapple (Ananas comosus) for export (10% and 8% of total exports in 2021, respectively). A national-scale study determined that agriculture in the MTCR is one of the most vulnerable sectors to climate changes. However, the climate in this region has been poorly studied so far. This research analyzed the spatial and temporal variability of annual, monthly, and seasonal (DJF, JJA, SO) rainfall in the MTCR and how they change in the study period based on quality-checked series of daily rainfall from 28 weather stations in two periods: 1985–2009 and 1997–2019. The results show that rainfall regimes in the region are variable in space and throughout the year, with peaks occurring close to the mountain range and minimum values close to the coast. Trends were statistically significant in the period 1985–2009 with a predominance of significant positive trends in DJF and significant negative trends in SO. No significant trends (positive or negative) were observed in the period 1997–2019. JJA rainfall has uneven regional distribution and presents a positive and significant trend in the mountain region. This paper contributes to filling the knowledge gap in rainfall seasonality, variability, and trends in a region where banana and pineapple commercial plantations are fundamental to the country's economy thus providing information to decision-making in the agri-food sector to reduce the negative impacts of changing rainfall regimes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This special collection examines insurance as an increasingly central mechanism in shaping how the effects of climate change are transforming local economies and ways of life. The papers study a range of exemplary cases, ranging from agricultural micro-insurance in development policy and regional sovereign risk facilities in the Caribbean to public and private insurance in the United States. This framing essay situates these papers in a longer tradition of scholarship on the government of risk and security. It also describes three themes that run through the papers: the economization of climate change; the moral economy of risk and responsibility; and the plasticity of insurance as an abstract technology that may be taken up in various governmental assemblages, in the name of various political projects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This paper aims to critically review the contribution made by this theme issue in responding to the strategic question: "How can Caribbean tourism investment, business and operations align with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals?" Design/methodology/approach: A critical content analysis of the papers selected for the theme issue was undertaken to learn about the best practices and experiences from countries in the Caribbean. The rationale for the issue was explored using a set of questions to determine the selected material. Findings: This summary paper highlights the most significant outcomes from the theme issue in terms of the contributions to knowledge and/or professional practice and also the implications for management action and applied research arising from the outcomes and best practices in some of the countries in the Caribbean. Case studies discussed include relevant experiences derived from application of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in Aruba, Antigua and Barbuda, Barbados, Belize Grenada, Cuba, Jamaica, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, The Bahamas and Trinidad and Tobago. Research limitations/implications: This paper outlines the challenges and new approaches that are needed to manage tourism investment, business and operations in line with the UN's SDGs that are now well established in other countries and regions. Originality/value: The paper explores the extent to which the lessons and innovative approaches discussed in this theme issue could be replicated and applied in small island developing states that are trying to comply with the UN SDG 2030 target. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The effects of climate change on tropical ecosystems cannot be interpreted based on physical variables alone. Severe water shortages and deterioration of ecosystems are most acute in places where historical inequalities occur, such as unequal access to land and other goods and rights necessary for the livelihood of marginalized populations. This paper explores environmental transformations and their repercussions on water resources based on spatial analysis and fieldwork carried out in the Colombian Caribbean. We have engaged with peasant and Afro-descendant populations who have been excluded from water use and now face problems in sustaining their way of life. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is a dearth of studies characterizing historical sea level variability at the local scale for the islands in the Caribbean. This is due to the lack of reliable long term tide gauge data. There is, however, a significant need for such studies given that small islands are under increasing threat from rising sea levels, storm surges, and coastal flooding due to global warming. The growing length of satellite altimetry records provides a useful alternative to undertake sea level analyses. Altimetry data, spanning 1993–2019, are used herein to explore multi-timescale sea level variability near the south coast of Jamaica, in the northwest Caribbean. Caribbean basin dynamics and largescale forcing mechanisms, which could account for the variability, are also investigated. The results show that the average annual amplitude off the south coast of Jamaica is approximately 10 cm with a seasonal peak during the summer (July–August). The highest annual sea levels occur within the Caribbean storm season, adding to the annual risk. The annual trend over the 27 years is 3.3 ± 0.4 mm/yr when adjusted for Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA), instrumental drift, and accounting for uncertainties. This is comparable to mean global sea level rise, but almost twice the prior estimates for the Caribbean which used altimetry data up to 2010. This suggests an accelerated rate of rise in the Caribbean over the last decade. Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) and correlation analyses show the long-term trend to be a basin-wide characteristic and linked to warming Caribbean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the period. When the altimetry data are detrended and deseasoned, the leading EOF mode has maximum loadings over the northwest Caribbean, including Jamaica, and exhibits interannual variability which correlates significantly with a tropical Pacific-tropical Atlantic SST gradient index, local wind strength, and the Caribbean Low Level Jet (CLLJ). Correlations with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in summer, seen in this and other studies, likely arise through the contribution of the ENSO to the SST gradient index and the ENSO's modulation of the CLLJ peak strength in July. The results demonstrate the usefulness of altimetry data for characterizing sea level risk on various timescales for small islands. They also suggest the potential for developing predictive models geared towards reducing those risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Weather-related natural disasters such as hurricanes are becoming more severe and more frequent due to human-induced climate change. Small Island Developing States are particularly vulnerable to such events. These extreme events have economic impacts on people's lives but are also associated with non-economic losses (NELs) that are not easily quantifiable. The United Nations Convention Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has tasked the Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage to find ways to 'address' these losses. While the UNFCCC and literature identify NELs, these remain broad and high-level examples, potentially not applicable in local contexts. Therefore, international climate change policies that are developed to address NELs are at risk of being inadequate and might not address the needs of people affected. This paper addresses this research gap based on interviews with residents from the Caribbean islands Dominica and Barbuda who survived hurricanes Maria and Irma in 2017. Responses show that the categorization of NELs under the UNFCCC only partially aligns with those NELs identified by interviewees. Firstly, interviewees do not make a distinction between economic and non-economic losses and secondly the term 'non-economic loss' is best expressed as 'non-economic impact' in order to encapsulate the full breadth of NELs. Both terms should jointly be considered as fulfilling 'life-functions'. HIGHLIGHTS The UNFCCC categories are not reflective enough of the broad range of non-economic losses (NEL) that exist. 'Non-economic loss' should be re-framed to 'non-economic impact' as a loss does not encapsulate the full breadth of losses identified by interviewees Another category for NELs is required as people do not always distinguish between economic and non-economic losses when economic items fulfil a life function The findings are detrimental for effective international and national policymaking [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes that "development justice" be taken up as an analytical concept and praxis‐driven framework for research on disasters, resilience, and climate change. The piece begins with a synopsis of the historical‐structural factors exacerbating risk in the Caribbean before reviewing the concepts of vulnerability, resilience, and development justice. Next, drawing from empirical data and via a development justice lens, we highlight how the logics, practices, and debts of colonial underdevelopment, racial capitalism, and neoliberal extraction continue to erode resilience across the region. We end by recommending that future adaptation and mitigation strategies related to disasters, catastrophes, and climate change be more attentive to structural and slow violence, as well as the historical trajectories of imperialism, racial capitalism, and hetero patriarchal norms. In sum, the piece constitutes an evidence‐based assertion that development justice perspectives alongside theories of non‐metaphorical decolonisation be used by scholars, activists, scientists, and states alike who are committed to mediating climate change and preventing/reducing the damage caused by disasters. This paper proposes that "development justice" be taken up as an analytical concept and praxis‐driven framework for research on disasters, resilience, and climate change. Drawing from empirical data gathered from across the Caribbean, the manuscript highlights how the logics, practices, and debts of colonial underdevelopment, racial capitalism, and neoliberal extraction continue to erode resilience throughout the region. In sum, the piece constitutes an evidence‐based assertion that development justice perspectives alongside theories of non‐metaphorical decolonisation be used by scholars, activists, scientists, and states alike who are committed to mediating climate change and preventing/reducing the damage caused by disasters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The merits of polycentric climate governance have attracted considerable discussion. On the one hand, polycentric governance offers an alternative to top-down state-centric forms that have so far proven elusive. On the other, highly networked systems increase coordination challenges. Less attention has been paid to the varying capacities required to achieve coordination. In this article we explore the coordination of polycentric governance via a case study of sargassum influx management in the Caribbean. Since 2011, large quantities of sargassum seaweed have been washing up on Caribbean beaches with adverse socio-economic impacts. Our analysis of sargassum management policies reveals that a nascent polycentric system has generated significant cooperation in policy development and application across the region. However, there remain national capacity deficits to engage in this form of governance and to implement agreed actions. We conclude that advocates of a polycentric climate governance regime need to consider how capacity shapes participation, to the advantage of the largest and strongest. Polycentric governance can be useful for solving disparate cross-border environmental problems, but it also imposes a cost on the smallest that has thus far been unacknowledged and undertheorized. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Capacity building is defined as a process by which stakeholders increase their knowledge, skills and resources in order to improve their ability to adapt in a fast-changing world. Universities play a key role in the promotion of sustainability and implementation of the 2030 United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) through capacity building. However, universities in developing countries face significant challenges in the implementation of capacity building programmes for sustainability given the lack of procedures that facilitate the systematic integration of multiple stakeholderś epistemologies, methodologies and objectives. In this paper, we present a capacity building approach as a problem-focused process that follows a multi-domain/multi-stakeholder scheme, and provides alignment with the functions and responsibilities of different sectors of society. The approach involves the use of a decision-support tool for sustainability that enables stakeholders to actively participate in decision-making processes. We illustrate the implementation of the capacity building approach through two case studies and show how general and specific capacities tailored to the different stakeholders can be developed. Our approach to capacity building accentuates the role of universities in Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean as research and innovation hubs that could help design and implement flexible, transparent and robust strategies towards achievement of sustainability in the region. Key policy insights Capacity building to address the sustainable development goals should aim to develop sets of interlinked capacities for sustainability across stakeholder groups. Capacity building should take into account the regional institutional contexts in which universities in Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean are embedded. Effective implementation of capacity building must be tailored to the different roles and functions of the actors involved. Thematic, technical, evaluative and procedural domains provide a comprehensive framework to build capacities, which can be continuously adapted according to the functions and responsibilities of the actors. Capacity building approaches to address climate change vulnerability require decision-support tools to inform policy-making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper unpacks the emergence of pro-poor insurance-based climate change adaptation initiatives within development and disaster management agencies. It details how the equation between insurance and ethical climate change adaptation emerged through development economists' moral and technical critique of ex post disaster relief, which positioned insurers' unique styles of thought and practice as ethical and technical solutions to the problem of how to manage the state's financial capacity. However, an example of Dominican disaster budgeting demonstrates how insurantialized disaster governance both compliments and contrasts with alternative disaster financing strategies based in Caribbean states' efforts to create autonomy from plantation dependencies. In the contemporary Caribbean, the moral imperative to become economically self-sufficient reconfigures state-donor-market-society relations in ways that further hollow out Caribbean states' political independence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Education for sustainable development (ESD) is a significant field for the Caribbean region and one that has been steadily developing from the 1980s onwards. The current ESD for 2030 framework offers an opportune moment for reflection on progress to-date, current challenges and future prospects for the field. With this in mind, this article shares perspectives gathered from qualitative interviews with those working in the foreground of the field across four Caribbean countries. Thoughts shared include the need to redefine and recontextualise development and education in the region, incorporate indigenous and traditional knowledge in ESD, and ensure more coherence amongst efforts within countries. The insights offered highlight significant areas for researchers and practitioners to capitalise on as ESD and the wider education systems within which it is framed are re-envisioned towards more resilient and sustainable societies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global South scholars have long documented and theorised their communities' struggles against the ecological degradation, toxic contamination, and climate change–related extreme weather events which result from the overlapping ills of colonialism, imperialism, and racial capitalism. Building on that existing work, contributors to this collection extend and deepen understandings of the material entanglements of race and ecology in our contemporary conjuncture. Speaking from various scales and locations, including the Caribbean, Brazil, Sri Lanka, and Palestine, the authors reflect on those sites while also collectively recovering and amplifying lineages of thought on ecology from across the South. As the contributions collected here show, the traps set by global structures of race also direct mainstream climate solutions back towards the expropriation, premature death, or prevention of birth of peoples of colour by various means, from militarised conservation to eugenic populationism. Confronting the racial logics of both ecological harm and its supposed solutions is therefore a key task of this collection. As a collective, however, the issue's contributors also carve out paths to reparation and structural change which form the contours of an anti-racist ecology for our times. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Caribbean small island developing states (SIDS) are highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Food security is a key issue in the region, and is related to vulnerability in the natural and human system. This short research paper, which reports on a systematic search of the academic literature and is part of a larger research project on climate change adaptation in Caribbean coastal communities, investigates two central questions: (1) what challenges to food security are Caribbean SIDS facing due to climate change? and (2) what strategies, if any, are being used to adapt to these challenges? We review peer-reviewed articles published after the release of Working Group II's contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 2014, which included a chapter on vulnerability and impacts in small islands (Chapter 29). We find that post AR5 articles confirm that climate change will have a significant effect on agriculture and fisheries in the Caribbean, mainly through changing patterns of weather, air and sea surface temperatures, and water availability. These studies highlight the importance of considering the social dimensions of food security in the region when identifying and implementing adaptation strategies, particularly in the context of achieving the Sustainable Development Goals. These social dimensions include the Caribbean's historical and social context as well as its demographics, which feature varying population densities and poverty rates. They serve to increase vulnerability but are imperative considerations for understanding and minimizing the threat climate change poses to food security in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Regional Atmospheric Modelling System (RAMS) driven by data from the CMIP5 Earth System Model HadGEM2‐ES was used to simulate daily precipitation over the tropical Americas for both current and future climate, including distinct scenarios (representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5) and different time horizons (short‐term, mid‐term and long‐term changes). The major objective was to evaluate possible future changes in extreme events, with emphasis on the intensity of precipitation events and the duration of wet and dry spells. According to RAMS, longer dry spells are expected over most regions of the tropical Americas in the future, with indications for Northeast Brazil, Caribbean, Northern Amazon, and shorter wet spells over Central America and Amazon. With the exception of the Caribbean, there is a general tendency towards the increased frequency of intense precipitation in the tropical Americas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water resources management in Latin America and the Caribbean is particularly threatened by climatic, economic, and political pressures. To assess the region's ability to manage water resources, we conducted an unprecedented literature review of over 20 000 multilingual research articles using machine learning and an understanding of the socio-hydrologic landscape. Results reveal that the region's vulnerability to water-related stresses, and drivers such as climate change, is compounded by research blind spots in niche topics (reservoirs and risk assessment) and subregions (Caribbean nations), as well as by its reliance on an individual country (Brazil). A regional bright spot, Brazil, produces well-rounded water-related research, but its regional dominance suggests that funding cuts there would impede scientifically informed water management in the entire region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Forty years (1980–2019) of reanalysis data were used to investigate climatology and trends of heat stress in the Caribbean region. Represented via the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI), a multivariate thermophysiological‐relevant parameter, the highest heat stress is found to be most frequent and geographically widespread during the rainy season (August, September, and October). UTCI trends indicate an increase of more than 0.2°C·decade−1, with southern Florida and the Lesser Antilles witnessing the greatest upward rates (0.45°C·decade−1). Correlations with climate variables known to induce heat stress reveal that the increase in heat stress is driven by increases in air temperature and radiation, and decreases in wind speed. Conditions of heat danger, as depicted by the heat index (HI), have intensified since 1980 (+1.2°C) and are found to occur simultaneously to conditions of heat stress suggesting a synergy between heat illnesses and physiological responses to heat. This work also includes the analysis of the record‐breaking 2020 heat season during which the UTCI and HI achieved above average values, indicating that local populations most likely experienced heat stress and danger higher than the ones they are used to. These findings confirm the gradual intensification of heat stress in the Caribbean and aim to provide a guidance for heat‐related policies in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate risk and vulnerability assessments were undertaken in the Caribbean for national ministries, with funding from the Caribbean Development Bank. The studies evaluated the impacts of climate-related natural hazards on road transport infrastructure and identified measures to strengthen resilience. Geographic information systems were used to map infrastructure assets and structural condition, and climate-related variables were then integrated to model current and future hazard scenarios. The data sets were analysed to identify hotspot areas of the road network where adaptation interventions were proposed and to prioritise climate-resilient investments. The assessment findings helped decision makers understand system resilience, adaptive capacity and how critical risk hotspot areas could be mitigated. Improved road infrastructure design and a more proactive approach to road and structure maintenance will help increase the resilience of the road networks by reducing vulnerability to hazards and minimising the impact of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change includes the change of the long-term average values and the change of the tails of probability density functions, where the extreme events are located. However, obtaining average values are more straightforward than the high temporal resolution information necessary to catch the extreme events on those tails. Such information is difficult to get in areas lacking sufficient rain stations. Thanks to the development of Satellite Precipitation Estimates with a daily resolution, this problem has been overcome, so Extreme Precipitation Indices (EPI) can be calculated for the entire Colombian territory. However, Colombia is strongly affected by the ENSO (El Niño—Southern Oscillation) phenomenon. Therefore, it is pertinent to ask if the EPI's long-term change due to climate change is more critical than the anomalies due to climate variability induced by the warm and cold phases of ENSO (El Niño and La Niña, respectively). In this work, we built EPI annual time series at each grid-point of the selected Satellite Precipitation Estimate (CHIRPSv2) over Colombia to answer the previous question. Then, the Mann-Whitney-Wilcoxon test was used to compare the samples drawn in each case (i.e., change tests due to both long-term and climatic variability). After performing the analyses, we realized that the importance of the change depends on the region analyzed and the considered EPI. However, some general conclusions became evident: during El Niño years (La Niña), EPI's anomaly follows the general trend of reduction -drier conditions- (increase; -wetter conditions-) observed in Colombian annual precipitation amount, but only on the Pacific, the Caribbean, and the Andean region. In the Eastern plains of Colombia (Orinoquía and Amazonian region), EPI show a certain insensitivity to change due to climatic variability. On the other hand, EPI's long-term changes in the Pacific, the Caribbean, and the Andean region are spatially scattered. Still, long-term changes in the eastern plains have a moderate spatial consistency with statistical significance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Understanding speciation mechanisms requires disentangling processes that promote and erode population‐level divergence. Three hypotheses are raised that contemporary population structure is mainly shaped by refugial isolation, gene flow or both. Testing these hypotheses requires range‐wide phylogeography and integrative analyses across scales. Here we aimed to (1) re‐estimate the previously unresolved nuclear divergence within a widespread bat; (2) test the above three phylogeographical hypotheses and (3) inform conservation management under climatic change. Location: North America including the Caribbean. Taxon: The big brown bat (Eptesicus fuscus). Methods: We collected range‐wide samples and genome‐wide markers using restriction site‐associated DNA sequencing. Population structure was analysed by clustering methods and spatial estimations. Nuclear phylogeographical divergence was estimated using tree methods (concatenation and coalescence) and network analyses (TreeMix). Phylogeographical hypotheses were tested by comparing alternative evolutionary scenarios using demographic modelling. Species distribution modelling was used to help identify Pleistocene refugia and predict future range shifts under climatic change. Results: We identified three populations in the Caribbean, eastern and western North America. The western population further split into three phylogeographical clades: Pacific, southwestern North America and Mexico. Discordance among mitochondrial and nuclear topologies reflected strong impacts of gene flow without sex bias. Demographic modelling supported scenarios of historical isolation followed by secondary gene flow and estimated Holocene divergence times. Species distribution was essentially continuous during glaciation with possible regional isolation, and northward range shifts were predicted under future climatic change. Main Conclusions: Contemporary population divergence of big brown bats was shaped by both historical isolation and secondary gene flow, supporting the third phylogeographical hypothesis. While climatic change likely triggered initial divergence, ongoing gene flow has largely impacted the dynamic within‐species evolution and generated population divergence without speciation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Elysiais a genus of sea slugs in which some species can "steal" chloroplasts (kleptoplasty) from algae and keep them photosynthetically active inside their cells. Solar‐powered animals are more susceptible to climate change as photosynthesis can increase the stress for these animals in extreme environmental conditions. Here, we used the Maxent algorithm and environmental envelopes (i.e. the multi‐dimensional environmental space in which a species can occur) to model the ecological niche of 21 Elysia species in the Caribbean to estimate their current and future potential distribution. We then used predicted distributions to map potential taxonomical richness and to describe the representation of the genus inside the marine protected areas (MPAs). For most species, we show an expansion of the northern and southern range of distribution, but a reduction in the central part. Although changes in richness appeared in different areas, predictions emphasize four large extensions that have a potential current richness of 13 and will have no species in the future: Pamlico Sound, North Carolina; the southwest of the Gulf of Mexico; the Great Bahama Bank; and the southwest of Brazil. Out of the total area with environmental conditions adequate for at least one of the species in the genus, 24.7% is located within MPAs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose This conceptual paper examines the Caribbean tourism sector, its growth, performance, importance and its vulnerability to climate change. The purpose of this paper is to serve as an introduction to the on-going conversation around climate change and the socioeconomic impacts likely to be experienced in tourism-dependent Caribbean territories.Design/methodology/approach The Caribbean is used as the context of this work. A broad perspective was adopted to paint a picture of the wider implications. The region is represented by a multiplicity of country profiles, both in physical and socio-economic characteristics; this warrants a broad assessment of the issues examined here.Findings This work shows that the Caribbean tourism sectors face significant future threats related to both competitiveness and climate change impacts. For a region so heavily dependent on coastal- and marine-related tourism attractions, adaptation and resilience are critical issues facing Caribbean tourism. An effective approach to building resilience to climate change requires extensive regional cooperation.Research limitations/implications While there is much published on the matter of climate change implications in the general global context, there is considerably less published work specifically examining the likely effects climate change will have on the special socio-economic features of the Caribbean and on the tourism industry in particular.Practical implications The lack of extensive and ongoing research dedicated to climate change implications for Caribbean tourism, while limiting the scope of this work, does highlight a gap and open the door for future work that examines, in greater detail both collectively and on an individual country basis, the climate change implications for tourism industries throughout the region.Social implications Climate change vulnerabilities in the region present a significant threat to economic development, employment and food security among others. Coastal flooding, infrastructural damage and the potential displacement of coastal communities present significant impediments to the quality of life of Caribbean nationals. The social implications necessitate further in-depth study to inform the development of adaptation strategies that may secure the tourism industry and the livelihoods and lifestyles of the people.Originality/value This work is original in its evaluation of the viewpoints of climate change vulnerability specific to the Caribbean tourism sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate projections indicate that temperatures in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) will rise by between 1.6 °C and 4 °C by the end of the century while changes in precipitation levels are expected to vary significantly across the region. This article estimates the impact of climate change on total factor productivity (TFP) and production. It combines data from the University of East Anglia's Climatic Research Unit (CRU), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) on 28 LAC countries for a 54‐year period (1961–2014) in order to inform policy makers of the cost of output losses in the absence of viable climate adaptation strategies. We use estimates of a random‐parameter stochastic production frontier (SPF) model specification to capture heterogeneity in technology and partial output elasticities across countries and unobserved environmental characteristics. Results show that change in output is mainly driven by an average annual TFP growth rate of.95%. Climate change induces significant reductions (9.03–12.7%) in productivity over the 2015–2050 period. In terms of output, these losses range from USD $14.7 to $31.4 billion dollars in the LAC region, depending on the scenario and the discount rate used. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

People with visual impairments (PwVI) represent a heterogeneous social group who often experience significant disabling barriers in exercising their rights throughout their life course. Understanding dimensions of vulnerability of PwVI to disasters and climate change is an important issue to reduce the culture of neglected disasters. To date, few studies have analyzed visual impairment and disaster risk reduction (DRR) in the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean. This exploratory qualitative research project analyzed how to include PwVI in the DRR policies of Brazil. The research question is: how can we include PwVI in the discussion of DRR and climate change? The response to this question is part of a joint effort that involved a university, a hazard monitoring agency, and three institutions that work with PwVI. The three main results of the project are: (1) a mapping method to identify the exposure of PwVI to landslides and floods, and to create tactile risk maps tailored to them; (2) incorporating the voices of PwVI regarding their vulnerabilities and capacities with respect to disasters and climate change, achieved through shared interaction during 15 face to face interviews and one workshop attended by 100 people; and (3) an initiative of inclusive education to reduce some of the disabling barriers that intensify vulnerability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Livestock have long been integral to food production systems, often not by choice but by need. While our knowledge of livestock greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions mitigation has evolved, the prevailing focus has been—somewhat myopically—on technology applications associated with mitigation. Here, we (1) examine the global distribution of livestock GHG emissions, (2) explore social, economic and environmental co‐benefits and trade‐offs associated with mitigation interventions and (3) critique approaches for quantifying GHG emissions. This review uncovered many insights. First, while GHG emissions from ruminant livestock are greatest in low‐ and middle‐income countries (LMIC; globally, 66% of emissions are produced by Latin America and the Caribbean, East and southeast Asia and south Asia), the majority of mitigation strategies are designed for developed countries. This serious concern is heightened by the fact that 80% of growth in global meat production over the next decade will occur in LMIC. Second, few studies concurrently assess social, economic and environmental aspects of mitigation. Of the 54 interventions reviewed, only 16 had triple‐bottom line benefit with medium–high mitigation potential. Third, while efforts designed to stimulate the adoption of strategies allowing both emissions reduction (ER) and carbon sequestration (CS) would achieve the greatest net emissions mitigation, CS measures have greater potential mitigation and co‐benefits. The scientific community must shift attention away from the prevailing myopic lens on carbon, towards more holistic, systems‐based, multi‐metric approaches that carefully consider the raison d'être for livestock systems. Consequential life cycle assessments and systems‐aligned 'socio‐economic planetary boundaries' offer useful starting points that may uncover leverage points and cross‐scale emergent properties. The derivation of harmonized, globally reconciled sustainability metrics requires iterative dialogue between stakeholders at all levels. Greater emphasis on the simultaneous characterization of multiple sustainability dimensions would help avoid situations where progress made in one area causes maladaptive outcomes in other areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The mass die‐off of Caribbean corals has transformed many of this region's reefs to macroalgal‐dominated habitats since systematic monitoring began in the 1970s. Although attributed to a combination of local and global human stressors, the lack of long‐term data on Caribbean reef coral communities has prevented a clear understanding of the causes and consequences of coral declines. We integrated paleoecological, historical, and modern survey data to track the occurrence of major coral species and life‐history groups throughout the Caribbean from the prehuman period to the present. The regional loss of Acropora corals beginning by the 1960s from local human disturbances resulted in increases in the occurrence of formerly subdominant stress‐tolerant and weedy scleractinian corals and the competitive hydrozoan Millepora beginning in the 1970s and 1980s. These transformations have resulted in the homogenization of coral communities within individual countries. However, increases in stress‐tolerant and weedy corals have slowed or reversed since the 1980s and 1990s in tandem with intensified coral bleaching and disease. These patterns reveal the long history of increasingly stressful environmental conditions on Caribbean reefs that began with widespread local human disturbances and have recently culminated in the combined effects of local and global change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While it is generally recognized that the projected changes in the global climate will have serious negative consequences for the Caribbean as a whole, it is becoming more and more evident that the impacts of climate change will not be uniformly felt across the region. The primary aim of this paper is to provide a review of the Caribbean climate change literature. The paper begins with a brief discussion on the shifting nature of Caribbean vulnerability within the context of the region's longstanding and continued exposure to forces of global economic and environmental change. Particular attention is paid to both the practical and discursive dimensions of vulnerability, and the specific ways the term has been understood and framed in relation to other crosscutting themes such as adaptation and resilience in the broader academic literature. In addition to providing an overview of the regional climate change science literature, the paper offers a critical review of the existing climate change impacts literature for the Caribbean. By drawing on, and taking stock of this growing body of impact studies, the paper seeks to shed light on the differential and multi-scalar drivers of social and economic vulnerabilities to climate variability and change in the Caribbean as well as highlight some of the existing knowledge gaps that need to be addressed. The paper ends by providing some brief ref lections on the emerging themes arising from the discussion and highlights a few key areas for future academic research for the Caribbean in light of existing knowledge gaps observed in the regional climate change impact literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate litigation is increasingly a feature of international climate policy. However, loss and damage cases have mostly been unsuccessful due to tensions around uncertainty, attribution, and the relationship between climate change and extreme weather events. While there is consensus that Annex I Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) have contributed more to historical greenhouse gas emissions than non-Annex I Parties have, there is great reluctance on their part to take responsibility for loss and damage. Considering the shortcomings of climate litigation and the impasse in the UNFCCC, we propose an alternative, non-judicial approach to addressing loss and damage – restorative justice. Applying a four-stage framework, we draw on the experience of non-Annex I Parties in the Caribbean with Hurricanes Irma and Maria in 2017 to (1) argue that existing attribution models can help identify restorative justice cases; (2) scope a role for the Warsaw International Mechanism in process design and preparation; (3) make a case for truth and reconciliation conferences, and restitution, as part of the restorative dialogue; and (4) call for the integration of restorative justice norms into global climate governance as a pathway for progressing negotiations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change mitigation will require substantial investments in renewables. In addition, climate change will affect future renewable supply and hence, power sector investment requirements. We study the implications of climate impacts on renewables for power sector investments under deep decarbonization using a global integrated assessment model. We focus on Latin American and Caribbean, an under-studied region but of great interest due to its strong role in international climate mitigation and vulnerability to climate change. We find that accounting for climate impacts on renewables results in significant additional investments ($12–114 billion by 2100 across Latin American countries) for a region with weak financial infrastructure. We also demonstrate that accounting for climate impacts only on hydropower—a primary focus of previous studies—significantly underestimates cumulative investments, particularly in scenarios with high intermittent renewable deployment. Our study underscores the importance of comprehensive analyses of climate impacts on renewables for improved energy planning. Substantial investment will be required in renewables to implement climate change mitigation. Here, the authors focus on Latin America and the Caribbean and find that climate impacts on renewables would result in additional investments $12-114 billion by 2100. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate models consistently project a significant drying in the Caribbean during climate change, and between 2013 and 2016 the region experienced the worst multiyear drought in the historical period. Although dynamical mechanisms have been proposed to explain drought in the Caribbean, the contributions from mass convergence and advection to precipitation minus evaporation (P − E) anomalies during drought are unknown. Here we analyze the dynamics of contemporaneous droughts in the Caribbean by decomposing the contributions of mass convergence and advection to P − E using observational and simulated data. We find that droughts arise from an anomalous subsidence over the southeastern Caribbean and northeastern South America. Although the contributions from mass convergence and advection vary across the region, it is mass convergence that is the main driver of drought in our study area. A similar dynamical pattern is observed in simulated droughts using the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble (LENS). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine whether Caribbean islands will be worse off as hurricane activity alters under climate change. To this end, we construct island level damages for synthetic storm tracks generated from four climate models under current and future climate settings. Using a flexible stochastic dominance preference ordering framework, we find that the fat-tailed and uncertain nature of the distribution of storms makes it difficult to conclude that the region will be worse off under climate change, and is likely to depend on the degree of adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The sensitivity of tropical Atlantic precipitation patterns to the mean position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) at different time scales is well‐known. However, recent research suggests a more complex behavior of the northern hemispheric tropical rain belt related to the ITCZ in the western tropical Atlantic. Here we present a precisely dated speleothem multi‐proxy record from a well‐monitored cave in Puerto Rico, covering the period between 46.2 and 15.3 ka. The stable isotope and trace element records document a pronounced response of regional rainfall to abrupt climatic excursions in the North Atlantic across the Last Glacial such as Heinrich stadials and Dansgaard/Oeschger events. The annual to multidecadal resolution of the proxy time series allows substructural investigations of the recorded events. Spectral analysis suggests that multidecadal to centennial variability persisted in the regional hydroclimate mainly during interstadial conditions but also during the Last Glacial Maximum. In particular, we observe a strong agreement between the speleothem proxy data and the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, supporting a persistent link of oceanic forcing to regional precipitation. Comparison to other paleo‐precipitation records enables the reconstruction of past changes in position, strength, and extent of the ITCZ in the western tropical Atlantic in response to millennial‐ and orbital‐scale global climate change. Plain Language Summary: It is important to understand the climatic circumstances of how rainfall in the western tropical Atlantic varies under a changing climate to better manage the water supply for millions of people. However, it is not well understood how rainfall varied in the past, especially during the Last Glacial period, a time of strong climate variability and abrupt climate changes. Here, we use a stalagmite from Puerto Rico to create a new record of past changes in rainfall in this region. For this purpose, we analyzed proxy data that reveal a series of wet and dry periods during the Last Glacial corresponding to rapid global climate shifts. Our rainfall‐sensitive stalagmite record captured changes of the tropical rain belt on various timescales and shows that this variability in rainfall is closely connected to changes in the strength of the ocean circulation. This suggests that the link between the ocean and the atmosphere is more robust than previously assumed. The comparison of our record with other rainfall‐sensitive records from Central America and the northern Caribbean allows for a detailed reconstruction of the spatial and temporal changes of the western tropical Atlantic rain belt. Key Points: Puerto Rican speleothem record documents multidecadal to millennial‐scale precipitation variability between 46.2 and 15.3 kaClimate proxies show a distinct rainfall response to abrupt North Atlantic climate change including Heinrich and Dansgaard/Oeschger eventsCompilation of regional precipitation records allows to reconstruct past changes in ITCZ patterns in the western tropical Atlantic [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The development, quality and impact of environmental and sustainability education (ESE) in the Caribbean have received increased attention from a growing body of education researchers over the past few decades. This is not surprising given that the region has been grappling with various environmental, social, and economic sustainability issues, and education remains widely regarded as a key mode of response by a range of stakeholders, networks and commentators. Drawing on local to wider perspectives and initiatives, formal and non-formal ESE activities have been undertaken, to enhance knowledge and awareness, develop values, hone skills, and promote behaviours consistent with sustainable development. Whilst this increased engagement is significant and heartening, I argue that there is still scope for a renewal of focus in ESE in the Caribbean, honing in on four main areas: climate change education, the environment and violence nexus, teacher education, and universities as models of and for sustainability. These areas are consistent with regional sustainability imperatives and the global Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), as well as ripe for deeper research-practice interlinkages. An overview of existing fields of educational inquiry in the Caribbean is offered, along with the four foci for further and future research, with the hope that new, emerging and established academics (as well as practitioners) work productively together to engage these crucial issues and critical imperatives for ESE. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change impacts island communities all over the world. Sea-level rise, an increase in the frequency and intensity of severe weather events, and changes in distribution and health of marine organisms are among the most significant processes affecting island communities worldwide. On islands of the Caribbean and southwestern Indian Ocean (SWIO), however, today's climate change impacts are magnified by historical environmental injustice and colonial legacies, which have heightened the vulnerability of human and other biotic communities. For some islands, archaeological and paleoecological research offers an important record of precolonial climate change and its interplay with human lives and landscapes. The archaeological record suggests strategies and mechanisms that can inform discussions of resilience in the face of climate change. We detail climate-related challenges facing island Caribbean and SWIO communities using archaeological and paleoecological evidence for past climate change and human response and argue that these cannot be successfully addressed without an understanding of the processes that have, over time, disrupted livelihoods, reshaped land- and seascapes, threatened intergenerational ecological knowledge transfer, and led to increased inequality and climate vulnerability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In early September 2017, Irma was the most powerful hurricane that struck the northern Caribbean over the last 100 years. In the 21st century, the stronger types of tropical cyclones will likely increase in frequency due to the climate change and internal climate variability. Lessons to anticipate the response of mangroves to this intensification can be learned from this extreme event. Here, we analysed damages caused in mangrove forests of the Saint Martin Island. Mangroves of this island were previously degraded due to historic human pressures and recent over-urbanisation. Forest inventories and time series of very high resolution satellite images revealed that approximately 80% of the mangrove area was damaged by the hurricane. Results highlighted distinct rates of forest recovery. Early and rapid recoveries were largely observed in most study sites. However, some mangroves were still unable to recover fourteen months after the disturbance. The human-induced degradation of the ecosystem prior to the hurricane is hypothesised to be the main factor controlling the absence of forest recovery. We suggest that human-degraded mangroves will be weakened in the face of such extreme events. We advocate to preserve and restore mangroves in order to guarantee all the valuable ecosystem services they provided. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate variations in the Caribbean, largely manifest in rainfall activity, have important consequences for the large-scale water budget, natural vegetation, and land use in the region. The wet and dry seasons will be defined, and the important roles played by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in modulating the rainfall during these seasons will be discussed. The seasonal climate forecasts in this paper are made by 13 state of the art coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (CGCMs) and by the Florida State University Synthetic Superensemble (FSUSSE), whose forecasts are obtained by a weighted combination of the individual CGCM forecasts based on a training period. The success of the models in simulating the observed 1989–2001 climatology of the various forecast parameters will be examined and linked to the models’ success in predicting the seasonal climate for individual years. Seasonal forecasts will be examined for precipitation, sea-surface temperature (SST), 2-meter air temperature, and 850 hPa u- and v-wind components during the period 1989–2001. Evaluation metrics include root mean square (RMS) error and Brier skill score. It will be shown that the FSUSSE is superior to the individual CGCMs and their ensemble mean both in simulating the 1989–2001 climatology for the various parameters and in predicting the seasonal climate of the various parameters for individual years. The seasonal climate forecasts of the FSUSSE and of the ensemble mean of the 13 state of the art CGCMs will be evaluated for years (during the period 1989–2001) that have particular ENSO and NAO signals that are known to influence Caribbean weather, particularly the rainfall. It will be shown that the FSUSSE provides superior forecasts of rainfall, SST, 2-meter air temperature, and 850 hPa u- and v-wind components during dry summers that are modulated by negative SOI and/or positive NAO indices. Such summers have become a feature of a twenty-year pattern of drought in the Caribbean region. The results presented in this paper will show that the FSUSSE is a valuable tool for forecasting rainfall and other atmospheric and oceanic variables during such periods of drought. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The efficient management of water resources and services continues to be aconcern in many of the small island states of the Caribbean. There are growing concernsover the ability of governments in the region to ensure the good management and provisionof water without jeopardizing economic growth and the maintenance of social well-being.This paper provides an overview of the major factors influencing the water security facingthe Caribbean Region and how the emerging concerns are being addressed. The keychallenges and vulnerabilities may be summarized as lack of data and barriers to makingavailable what information there is. Forward planning has been largely neglected and issymptomatic of a lack of appreciation of the need for having national water policies. In thisrespect Jamaica's development of a national master water plan serves as a good example ofwhat is needed. Water service providers have to be efficient, well managed and allowed todo their job. This means that they have to be on a sound financial footing. The challenge isto find the balance between appropriate political and regulatory oversight and theautonomy of water managers and service providers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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The efficient management of water resources and services continues to be a concern in many of the small island states of the Caribbean. There are growing concerns over the ability of governments in the region to ensure the good management and provision of water without jeopardizing economic growth and the maintenance of social well-being. This paper provides an overview of the major factors influencing the water security facing the Caribbean Region and how the emerging concerns are being addressed. The key challenges and vulnerabilities may be summarized as lack of data and barriers to making available what information there is. Forward planning has been largely neglected and is symptomatic of a lack of appreciation of the need for having national water policies. In this respect Jamaica's development of a national master water plan serves as a good example of what is needed. Water service providers have to be efficient, well managed and allowed to do their job. This means that they have to be on a sound financial footing. The challenge is to find the balance between appropriate political and regulatory oversight and the autonomy of water managers and service providers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Small island developing States ( SIDS) have narrow resource bases and are usually extremely reliant on fossil fuel based energy for transport and electricity generation. These island economies are thus particularly vulnerable to the impacts of peak oil and also to climate change, impacts which are likely to not only hamper economic development but also adversely affect the quality of life of local inhabitants. In order to reduce the vulnerability of SIDS to peak oil, an urgent transition to renewable sources of energy is necessary. This paper propounds that the reform of power sector that took place in Caribbean and Pacific SIDS (particularly between 1970 and 2000) should have been viewed as an opportunity to re-orient power producers away from the proclivity to utilise conventional fossil fuel uses. Reasons why reform measures did not result in a substantive transition are put forward. Moreover, recommendations towards facilitating a transition to renewable energy in the power sector through future reforms are proposed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A case study is presented on impact of climatic changes on fishers and other marginalized groups in Caribbean region. Topics discussed include environmental psychology, climate change awareness and adaptation to climate change. Other topics which includes climate mitigation and Pedro Cays fishing community are also discussed.

Climate change adaptation planning has rapidly expanded to assist with reducing vulnerability to current and projected impacts of climate change. In Caribbean small island developing states (SIDS), planned adaptation is viewed as essential to address their high vulnerability to climate change, and planning has begun in earnest across the region. However, there has been limited analysis of adaptation planning documents in the region to assess their quality and content. This study assesses adaptation planning documents from Caribbean SIDS, focusing on inclusion of key stages of adaptation planning that were identified from international and regionally specific adaptation guidance instruments. Eighty-nine Caribbean adaptation planning documents—including policies, strategies, programs, and projects—were assessed, revealing that they differ considerably from guidance instruments. Key areas for improvement include the need for (i) more direct linkages between identification of adaptation options and assessments of climate hazards, impacts, vulnerability, and risk; (ii) identification and appraisal of a range of adaptation options; and (iii) increased inclusion and usage of quantitative information about hazards and impacts. Addressing these deficiencies may help to improve the status of adaptation planning in the region and ultimately aid in reducing the high vulnerability of these island nations to the impacts of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change has significantly altered species distributions in the wild and has the potential to affect the interactions between pests and diseases and their human, animal and plant hosts. While several studies have projected changes in disease distributions in the future, responses to historical climate change are poorly understood. Such analyses are required to dissect the relative contributions of climate change, host availability and dispersal to the emergence of pests and diseases. Here, we model the influence of climate change on the most damaging disease of a major tropical food plant, Black Sigatoka disease of banana. Black Sigatoka emerged from Asia in the late twentieth Century and has recently completed its invasion of Latin American and Caribbean banana-growing areas. We parametrize an infection model with published experimental data and drive the model with hourly microclimate data from a global climate reanalysis dataset. We define infection risk as the sum of the number of modelled hourly spore cohorts that infect a leaf over a time interval. The model shows that infection risk has increased by a median of 44.2% across banana-growing areas of Latin America and the Caribbean since the 1960s, due to increasing canopy wetness and improving temperature conditions for the pathogen. Thus, while increasing banana production and global trade have probably facilitated Black Sigatoka establishment and spread, climate change has made the region increasingly conducive for plant infection. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes'. This issue is linked with the subsequent theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Production efficiency is a key determinant of economic growth and demonstrates how a country uses its resources by relating the quantity of its inputs to its outputs. When a natural hazard-induced disaster strikes, it has a devastating impact on capital and labor, but at the same time provides an opportunity to upgrade capital and increase labor demand and training opportunities, thereby potentially boosting production efficiency. We studied the impact of natural hazard-induced disasters on countries' production efficiency, using the case study of hurricanes in the Caribbean. To this end we built a country-specific, time-varying data set of hurricane damage and national output and input indicators for 17 Caribbean countries for the period 1940–2014. Our results, using a stochastic frontier approach, show that there is a short-lived production efficiency boost, and that this can be large for very damaging storms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Gecarcinid land crabs are ecosystem engineers playing an important role in nutrient recycling and seedling propagation in coastal forests. Given a predicted future decline in precipitation for the Caribbean, the effects of dehydration on feeding preferences of the black land crab Gecarcinus ruricola were investigated. G. ruricola were offered novel food items of lettuce, apple, or herring to test for food choice based on water and nutritional (energetic) content in single and multiple choice experimental designs. The effect of dehydration was incorporated by depriving crabs of water for 0, 4, or 8 days, leading to an average body water loss of 0%, 9%, and 17%, respectively, (crabs survived a body water loss of 23% + 2% and 14–16 days without access to water). The results were consistent between the single and multiple choice experiments: crabs consumed relatively more apple and fish and only small amounts of lettuce. Overall, no selective preferences were observed as a function of dehydration, but crabs did consume less dry food when deprived of water and an overall lower food intake with increasing dehydration levels occurred. The decrease in feeding was likely due to loss of water from the gut resulting in the inability to produce ample digestive juices. Future climatic predictions suggest a 25–50% decline in rainfall in the Caribbean, which may lead to a lower food intake by the crabs, resulting in compromised growth. The subsequent reduction in nutrient recycling highlights possible long-term effects on coastal ecosystems and highlights the importance of future work on climate relative behavioral interactions that influence ecosystem function. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]