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This paper makes the case for a reconsideration of the human exemptionalist paradigm in sociological research. Reviewing recent research on the racialized and gendered dimensions of environmental use and abuse in North America, this paper argues that the persistent belief that humans dominate over all other biota is a direct result of the white supremacist, patriarchal gender system. Traditional Anglo‐European performances of and expectations for masculinity not only mandate the subjugation of women, but of all biota. Consequently, the burdens for repair and regeneration are disproportionately placed upon feminized subjects. This racialized gender system is strengthened as long as human exemptionalism persists. Ultimately, sociologists should contend with 'human supremacy' as a system of inequality that strengthens all other systems of inequality that plague human society. Moving forward, theories of liberation must go beyond the species boundary to account for an end to unjust domination of all life on Earth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Vegetation gross primary productivity (GPP) is the single largest carbon flux of the terrestrial biosphere which, in turn, is responsible for sequestering 25%–30% of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions. The ability to model GPP is therefore critical for calculating carbon budgets as well as understanding climate feedbacks. Earth system models (ESMs) have the capability to simulate GPP but vary greatly in their individual estimates, resulting in large uncertainties. We describe a machine learning (ML) approach to investigate two key factors responsible for differences in simulated GPP quantities from ESMs: the relative importance of different atmospheric drivers and differences in the representation of land surface processes. We describe the different steps in the development of our interpretable ML framework including the choice of algorithms, parameter tuning, training and evaluation. Our results show that ESMs largely agree on the physical climate drivers responsible for GPP as seen in the literature, for instance drought variables in the Mediterranean region or radiation and temperature in the Arctic region. However differences do exist since models don't necessarily agree on which individual variable is most relevant for GPP. We also explore a distance measure to attribute GPP differences to climate influences versus process differences and provide examples for where our methods work (South Asia, Mediterranean) and where they are inconclusive (Eastern North America). Plain Language Summary: Gross primary productivity (GPP) is the rate at which plants remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere during photosynthesis. Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas and excess in the atmosphere causes global warming and climate change. Changes in the amounts of atmospheric carbon dioxide will impact the entire Earth System. We therefore need the ability to accurately calculate GPP, especially for different possible carbon usage pathways in the future. Earth system models or ESMs allow us to simulate various processes happening in the earth's atmosphere and biosphere including photosynthesis and can help us estimate GPP changes for such different pathways. However, ESMs can vary significantly in their simulated GPP estimates making it difficult to have confidence in using these estimates. We describe a ML framework to better understand where ESMs differ in calculating GPP so that we can address knowledge gaps in models. This approach allows us to understand the processes involved without having to run computationally expensive simulations. With improved models, we can also improve our ability to predict climate change outcomes for the future. Key Points: A machine learning framework to advance our understanding of the terrestrial carbon cycle in earth system models or ESMs is proposedDifferences in the relative importance of atmospheric drivers of gross primary productivity highlights differences across modelsA method to attribute differences in productivity estimates from ESMs due to process representation versus atmospheric forcing is demonstrated [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change has facilitated the introduction, establishment, and movement of invasive species in northern regions, enabling the colonization of previously unsuitable areas. While the responses of insects to these changes have been increasingly studied, our understanding of how such alterations impact trophic interactions still requires further research to make reliable predictions about the spread of diseases in a warming world. Phytoplasmas, a group of obligate parasitic unculturable Mollicutes, primarily rely on leafhoppers (Hemiptera: Cicadellidae) for transmission, spread, and survival. Phytoplasmas are associated with over 600 diseases affecting more than 1,000 plant species, including berries, grapevines, and other small fruits. In North America, diseases such as grapevine yellows, blueberry stunt, and strawberry green petal diseases have been linked to phytoplasma strains transmitted by known leafhopper species. However, the number of phytoplasma diseases has significantly increased in North America over the past decade, suggesting the presence of unidentified vectors or an abundance of leafhopper vectors. This short review provides an overview of the current knowledge on leafhoppers as vectors of phytoplasmas to berries, focusing on the last decade's research in Canada. This paper also explores the potential implications of climate change on this pathosystem, including the anticipated range expansion of leafhopper species, changes in phytoplasma acquisition and transmission, and the risk of new leafhopper-transmitted plant-pathogen introductions through the arrival of new leafhopper species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water scarcity is exacerbating in many regions across North America because of climate change compounded by population growth, overexploitation of freshwater resources, and lack of proper management. Considering the regional urgency, there is an immense need to find more equitable solutions for water management. Therefore, this paper aims to examine the climatic factors impacting the hydrological regime in North America, including changes in surface runoff, groundwater storage, and the forested watershed, based on current trends and future projection scenarios. Moreover, this paper critically overviews need-based solutions for effective water management at a regional scale. The study shows that many areas of North America are exposed to extreme events such as prolonged droughts, devastating floods, wildfires, and altering precipitation patterns. Consequently, these changes are triggering wide-ranging impacts on water resources, leading to water supply deficiencies and influencing water flows and quality in the Southwestern United States, prairie provinces in Canada, and Mexico. The projection of warming around the region experiences spatial and seasonal variations because of the diversity in climatic conditions. Overall, in North America, winter is expected to warm more than other seasons causing earlier runoff and a decline in snowmelt. Given the physical and economic constraints that limit the development of new utilities, emphasis should be placed on strengthening nature-based solutions such as green infrastructure. Thus, the findings suggest an integrated water resource management approach is required, along with climate-induced innovative technologies, to secure the water resources while preparing for the forecasted challenges of tomorrow. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Featured Application: This work helps to realise improvements in the cultivation of corn and corn–nixtamalisation–dough–tortillas production, which could mean more environmentally friendly food production. The research on the environmental impacts of corn-derived products has been mainly on cultivation techniques and the production of biofuels, so there is limited information on the impacts produced by the transformation of corn for human consumption. The tortilla is a millennial product derived from corn of which consumption is increasing in North America. The aim of this study is to identify the environmental hotspots of the tortilla using a life cycle assessment (LCA) approach. The process studied included only the corn–nixtamalisation–dough–tortillas production. The functional unit is one kg of tortillas packed in kraft paper. The impacts of the tortilla production process were evaluated using SimaPro 8.5.0 software, considering ReCiPe Midpoint. The production has the greatest impact in 15 of the 18 impact categories. The normalisation reveals that the most significant impacts concentrate in the categories terrestrial acidification (TA), particulate matter formation (PMF), marine ecotoxicity (MET) and fossil fuel depletion (FD). Improvements in the cultivation could mean more environmentally friendly tortilla production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we obtained the first leading mode and principal component 1 (PC1) of North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST). The PC1‐related SST anomalies, located relatively north/south, are referred to as North/South PC1 events. Model outputs, observations, reanalysis datasets and sensitivity experiments show that during the North PC1 events, an enhanced Aleutian low occurs and is located relatively north, favoring anomalous southerlies over western North America. The anomalous southerlies induce a strong warming anomaly over North America via warm advection of the anomalous southerlies and temperature advection of the climatological westerlies over North America. However, the Aleutian low anomaly and corresponding southerly anomaly associated with South PC1 events shift southward, favoring weakened effects of South PC1 events on atmospheric circulations and surface temperatures over North America. The meridional position of PC1 events deserves to be considered in the studies of the PC1 and its related climate changes. Plain Language Summary: Understanding of surface temperature variations is important since it largely affects human and society. This paper categorizes the North Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly events, which are associated with the first leading mode of North Pacific sea surface temperature, into North and South events according to their meridional positions. Using model outputs, observations, reanalysis datasets and sensitivity experiments, we found that the surface temperature anomalies over North America during the North events are quite different from those during the South events. During the North events, an enhanced Aleutian low occurs over high‐latitude North Pacific. The enhanced Aleutian low tends to induce anomalous southerlies over western North America. The anomalous southerlies favor warming anomalies over North America via the warm advection of anomalous southerlies and temperature advection of climatological westerly. However, the Aleutian low anomaly and meridional wind anomaly during the South events shift southward, leading to weakened effects of the South events on atmospheric circulations and surface temperatures over North America. Key Points: North American warming anomaly occurs during North Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly events located northThe warming anomaly is related to an enhanced Aleutian low anomaly located north and climatological westerlyDuring the events located south, North American surface temperature responses are weak due to a southward‐shift Aleutian low anomaly [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) has caused significant climate changes over the past 90 000 years. Prior work has hypothesized that these millennial-scale climate variations effected past and contemporary biodiversity, but the effects are understudied. Moreover, few biogeographic models have accounted for uncertainties in palaeoclimatic simulations of millennial-scale variability. We examine whether refuges from millennial-scale climate oscillations have left detectable legacies in the patterns of contemporary species richness in eastern North America. We analyse 13 palaeoclimate estimates from climate simulations and proxy-based reconstructions as predictors for the contemporary richness of amphibians, passerine birds, mammals, reptiles and trees. Results suggest that past climate changes owing to AMOC variations have left weak but detectable imprints on the contemporary richness of mammals and trees. High temperature stability, precipitation increase, and an apparent climate fulcrum in the southeastern United States across millennial-scale climate oscillations aligns with high biodiversity in the region. These findings support the hypothesis that the southeastern United States may have acted as a biodiversity refuge. However, for some taxa, the strength and direction of palaeoclimate-richness relationships varies among different palaeoclimate estimates, pointing to the importance of palaeoclimatic ensembles and the need for caution when basing biogeographic interpretations on individual palaeoclimate simulations. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: West Nile virus (WNV), the most widely distributed flavivirus causing encephalitis globally, is a vector-borne pathogen of global importance. The changing climate is poised to reshape the landscape of various infectious diseases, particularly vector-borne ones like WNV. Understanding the anticipated geographical and range shifts in disease transmission due to climate change, alongside effective adaptation strategies, is critical for mitigating future public health impacts. This scoping review aims to consolidate evidence on the impact of climate change on WNV and to identify a spectrum of applicable adaptation strategies. Main body: We systematically analyzed research articles from PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus, and EBSCOhost. Our criteria included English-language research articles published between 2007 and 2023, focusing on the impacts of climate change on WNV and related adaptation strategies. We extracted data concerning study objectives, populations, geographical focus, and specific findings. Literature was categorized into two primary themes: 1) climate-WNV associations, and 2) climate change impacts on WNV transmission, providing a clear understanding. Out of 2168 articles reviewed, 120 met our criteria. Most evidence originated from North America (59.2%) and Europe (28.3%), with a primary focus on human cases (31.7%). Studies on climate-WNV correlations (n = 83) highlighted temperature (67.5%) as a pivotal climate factor. In the analysis of climate change impacts on WNV (n = 37), most evidence suggested that climate change may affect the transmission and distribution of WNV, with the extent of the impact depending on local and regional conditions. Although few studies directly addressed the implementation of adaptation strategies for climate-induced disease transmission, the proposed strategies (n = 49) fell into six categories: 1) surveillance and monitoring (38.8%), 2) predictive modeling (18.4%), 3) cross-disciplinary collaboration (16.3%), 4) environmental management (12.2%), 5) public education (8.2%), and 6) health system readiness (6.1%). Additionally, we developed an accessible online platform to summarize the evidence on climate change impacts on WNV transmission (https://2xzl2o-neaop.shinyapps.io/WNVScopingReview/). Conclusions: This review reveals that climate change may affect the transmission and distribution of WNV, but the literature reflects only a small share of the global WNV dynamics. There is an urgent need for adaptive responses to anticipate and respond to the climate-driven spread of WNV. Nevertheless, studies focusing on these adaptation responses are sparse compared to those examining the impacts of climate change. Further research on the impacts of climate change and adaptation strategies for vector-borne diseases, along with more comprehensive evidence synthesis, is needed to inform effective policy responses tailored to local contexts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Physical inactivity is a major public health concern, exacerbated in countries with a (sub)tropical climate. The built environment can facilitate physical activity; however, current evidence is mainly from North American and European countries with activity-friendly climate conditions. This study explored associations between built environment features and physical activity in global tropical or subtropical dry or desert climate regions. Methods: A systematic review of four major databases (Web of Science, Scopus, PubMed, and SportDISCUS) was performed. To be included, studies had to investigate associations between perceived or objective built environment characteristics and adult's physical activity and had to be conducted in a location with (sub)tropical climate. Each investigated association was reported as one case and results were synthesized based upon perceived and objectively assessed environment characteristics as well as Western and non-Western countries. Study quality was evaluated using a tool designed for assessing studies on built environment and physical activity. Results: Eighty-four articles from 50 studies in 13 countries with a total of 2546 built environment-physical activity associations were included. Design (connectivity, walking/cycling infrastructure), desirability (aesthetics, safety), and destination accessibility were the built environment characteristics most frequently associated with physical activity across the domains active transport, recreational physical activity, total walking and cycling, and moderate-to-vigorous physical activity, particularly if multiple attributes were present at the same time. Very few studies assessed built environment attributes specifically relevant to physical activity in (sub)tropical climates. Most studies were conducted in Western countries, with results being largely comparable with non-Western countries. Findings were largely generalizable across gender and age groups. Results from natural experiments indicated that relocating to an activity-friendly neighborhood impacted sub-groups differently. Conclusions: Built environment attributes, including destination accessibility, connectivity, walking and cycling infrastructure, safety, and aesthetics, are positively associated with physical activity in locations with (sub)tropical climate. However, few studies focus on built environment attributes specifically relevant in a hot climate, such as shade or indoor recreation options. Further, there is limited evidence from non-Western countries, where most of the urban population lives in (sub)tropical climates. Policy makers should focus on implementing activity-friendly environment attributes to create sustainable and climate-resilient cities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Anthropogenic climate change has already affected drought severity and risk across many regions, and climate models project additional increases in drought risk with future warming. Historically, droughts are typically caused by periods of below‐normal precipitation and terminated by average or above‐normal precipitation. In many regions, however, soil moisture is projected to decrease primarily through warming‐driven increases in evaporative demand, potentially affecting the ability of negative precipitation anomalies to cause drought and positive precipitation anomalies to terminate drought. Here, we use climate model simulations from Phase Six of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to investigate how different levels of warming (1, 2, and 3°C) affect the influence of precipitation on soil moisture drought in the Mediterranean and Western North America regions. We demonstrate that the same monthly precipitation deficits (25th percentile relative to a preindustrial baseline) at a global warming level of 2°C increase the probability of both surface and rootzone soil moisture drought by 29% in the Mediterranean and 32% and 6% in Western North America compared to the preindustrial baseline. Furthermore, the probability of a dry (25th percentile relative to a preindustrial baseline) surface soil moisture month given a high (75th percentile relative to a preindustrial baseline) precipitation month is 6 (Mediterranean) and 3 (Western North America) times more likely in a 2°C world compared to the preindustrial baseline. For these regions, warming will likely increase the risk of soil moisture drought during low precipitation periods while simultaneously reducing the efficacy of high precipitation periods to terminate droughts. Plain Language Summary: Regional warming associated with climate change is already making droughts worse in many places. This trend is expected to continue as global temperatures increase in response to continued emissions of greenhouse gases. With increasing temperatures, soils are projected to lose water to the atmosphere as it draws more and more moisture from the land surface, increasing drought risk. At the same time, climate change is also projected to shift precipitation patterns. This means it is important to understand how changes in rainfall will cause and end droughts in the future. Using state‐of‐the‐art climate models, we investigate how future warming will impact the influence of precipitation on soil moisture in the Mediterranean and Western North America. Our results suggest that current levels of monthly precipitation will be insufficient to alleviate drought conditions in a warmer world. Key Points: Warming causes declines in soil moisture in the Mediterranean and Western North AmericaThe probability of a moderate soil moisture drought increases during both low and high precipitation anomalies, even at 1°C of warmingThe ability of large positive precipitation anomalies to terminate soil moisture droughts will be substantially reduced in a warmer world [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Climate is an important driver of ungulate life-histories, population dynamics, and migratory behaviors. Climate conditions can directly impact ungulates via changes in the costs of thermoregulation and locomotion, or indirectly, via changes in habitat and forage availability, predation, and species interactions. Many studies have documented the effects of climate variability and climate change on North America's ungulates, recording impacts to population demographics, physiology, foraging behavior, migratory patterns, and more. However, ungulate responses are not uniform and vary by species and geography. Here, we present a systematic map describing the abundance and distribution of evidence on the effects of climate variability and climate change on native ungulates in North America. Methods: We searched for all evidence documenting or projecting how climate variability and climate change affect the 15 ungulate species native to the U.S., Canada, Mexico, and Greenland. We searched Web of Science, Scopus, and the websites of 62 wildlife management agencies to identify relevant academic and grey literature. We screened English-language documents for inclusion at both the title and abstract and full-text levels. Data from all articles that passed full-text review were extracted and coded in a database. We identified knowledge clusters and gaps related to the species, locations, climate variables, and outcome variables measured in the literature. Review findings: We identified a total of 674 relevant articles published from 1947 until September 2020. Caribou (Rangifer tarandus), elk (Cervus canadensis), and white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) were the most frequently studied species. Geographically, more research has been conducted in the western U.S. and western Canada, though a notable concentration of research is also located in the Great Lakes region. Nearly 75% more articles examined the effects of precipitation on ungulates compared to temperature, with variables related to snow being the most commonly measured climate variables. Most studies examined the effects of climate on ungulate population demographics, habitat and forage, and physiology and condition, with far fewer examining the effects on disturbances, migratory behavior, and seasonal range and corridor habitat. Conclusions: The effects of climate change, and its interactions with stressors such as land-use change, predation, and disease, is of increasing concern to wildlife managers. With its broad scope, this systematic map can help ungulate managers identify relevant climate impacts and prepare for future changes to the populations they manage. Decisions regarding population control measures, supplemental feeding, translocation, and the application of habitat treatments are just some of the management decisions that can be informed by an improved understanding of climate impacts. This systematic map also identified several gaps in the literature that would benefit from additional research, including climate effects on ungulate migratory patterns, on species that are relatively understudied yet known to be sensitive to changes in climate, such as pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) and mountain goats (Oreamnos americanus), and on ungulates in the eastern U.S. and Mexico. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Engaging students in research is increasingly recognized as a valuable pedagogical tool that can augment student learning outcomes. Here, we present an original activity that utilizes research as pedagogy to teach upper-division college students about phenological responses to climate change. By studying phenological responses in multiple species, this activity emphasizes interspecific variability in responses to a changing climate (i.e., that not all species respond in the same way), while demonstrating the relationship between environmental and phenotypic variability. In this activity, students collect data from herbarium specimens of spring ephemerals native to North America and are tasked with formulating and testing hypotheses about how the day of year that a species' flowering occurs (i.e., flowering phenology) has been affected by climate change. To accomplish this, students perform linear regressions using the R programming language—including data exploration and ensuring the dependent variable follows a normal distribution—and subsequently present their results via oral presentation. We taught this activity as a three-unit lab in an upper-division ecology course and observed quantifiable improvement in student learning outcomes. While designed as a three-unit, upper-division lab, this activity can be modified for other educational levels, blocks of time, and/or as a flipped classroom activity. Through this activity, students are provided with the opportunity to learn about the scientific method, biological collections, linear regressions, the R programming language, and scientific communication. Changes to flowering time are one of the most conspicuous effects of climate change, thus presenting an ideal topic for engaging students in biological inquiry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Description of the driving forces for genetic divergence is important for understanding spatial pattern of biodiversity and development of conservation plans. Paleo‐climate, geographical barriers and habitat heterogeneity are considered to be the main influential factors; however, an integrative study is still lacking to reveal their interactions. Location: Eastern North America. Methods: Here, we generated MIG‐seq SNPs of 403 Sanguinaria canadensis samples and seven plastome data. The methods of phylogeography and landscape genomics were applied to infer their genetic divergence, demography, species distribution modelling, ecological differentiation and local adaptation. Results: We identified three distinct genetic lineages corresponding to geographical distributions isolated by the Appalachian Mountains and the Mississippi River. Ecological niche modelling and population demographic inference demonstrated that the response of S. canadensis to Pleistocene climate changes was consistent with the pattern of southward contraction during the ice age and northward recolonization during the inter−/postglacial period. Isolation in multiple southern refugia was a key factor resulting in the genetic divergence, whereas secondary contact triggered by repeated range shifts allowed gene flow among different lineages. A greater effect of isolation‐by‐environment than isolation‐by‐distance was founded, which suggested heterogeneous environment was also a promotor of genetic differentiation. Candidate adaptive loci related to transposable elements were identified under the influence of divergent environmental selection. Ecological niche divergence also reflected adaptation to different environments. Main Conclusions: This study revealed that genetic divergence has occurred within S. canadensis populations under the combined effect of paleo‐climate, geographical barriers and habitat heterogeneity, and emphasized the necessity of establishing different conservation units in future biological conservation and management work. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Warming climate and precipitation changes induce notable shifts in climate zones. In this study, the latest generation of global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and the previous generation CMIP5 under high‐emission scenarios are used together with observations and applied to the Köppen‐Geiger climate classification. The aim is to shed light on how projected warming and changes in precipitation will influence future climate zones and their associated ecosystems while revealing differences between the two model generations. Compared to CMIP5 models, CMIP6 models exhibit slightly improved performance in replicating the observed Köppen‐Geiger map for the historical (1976–2005) period and similar inter‐model agreement for the future. The models show major changes in climate zones with a range of projections depending on which ensemble subset is used: 37.9%–48.1% of the global land area is projected to change climate zone by the end of the century, with the most pronounced changes expected over Europe (71.4%–88.6%) and North America (51.2%–65.8%). CMIP6 models project a higher rate of areal climate zone change (km2/year) throughout the 21st century, which is mainly driven by their greater global land warming rates. Using a likely equilibrium climate sensitivity subset of CMIP6 models that is consistent with the latest evidence constrains the climate zone shifts, and their projections better match the results of CMIP5 simulations. Although the high warming rates of some CMIP6 models are less credible, the risks associated with them are greater, and they heighten the need for urgent action to preserve terrestrial ecosystems. Plain Language Summary: Köppen‐Geiger climate classification is a tool to map regional climate zones based on a region's temperature and precipitation. In recent decades, increasing temperatures and changing precipitation trends have started to affect the distribution of those climate zones, and more extensive changes are expected throughout the 21st century. In this paper, we assess the observed and expected changes in the global distribution of Köppen‐Geiger climate zones using observations along with the latest and the previous generation of global climate model projections. We find that shifts in climate zones are more pronounced in the latest generation of models due to their questionable greater global warming rate projections. Depending on which subset of model projections is used, up to half of the Earth's land area faces the risk of shifting to a different climate zone by the end of the century, with the greatest changes expected in Europe and North America. The rate of change (affected area per year) is also projected to accelerate through the 21st century, suggesting that vulnerable species and agricultural practices might have less time to adapt to changes in climate zones than previously projected. Key Points: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) exhibits slightly improved performance in simulating the globally observed historical Köppen‐Geiger climate zones compared to CMIP5By the end of the century, 38%–48% of the global land area is projected to be in a different climate zone than todayThe rate of climate zone change is projected to accelerate, with more pronounced rates in CMIP6 due to considerably higher warming rates [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Future Arctic sea ice loss has a known impact on Arctic amplification (AA) and mean atmospheric circulation. Furthermore, several studies have shown it leads to a decreased variance in temperature over North America. In this study, we analyze results from two fully coupled Community Earth System Model (CESM) Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM4) simulations with sea ice nudged to either the ensemble mean of WACCM historical runs averaged over the 1980–99 period for the control (CTL) or projected RCP8.5 values over the 2080–99 period for the experiment (EXP). Dominant large-scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs) are then identified using self-organizing maps applied to winter daily 500-hPa geopotential height anomalies ( Z 500 ′ ) over North America. We investigate how sea ice loss (EXP − CTL) impacts the frequency of these LSMPs and, through composite analysis, the sensible weather associated with them. We find differences in LSMP frequency but no change in residency time, indicating there is no stagnation of the flow with sea ice loss. Sea ice loss also acts to de-amplify and/or shift the Z 500 ′ that characterize these LSMPs and their associated anomalies in potential temperature at 850 hPa. Impacts on precipitation anomalies are more localized and consistent with changes in anomalous sea level pressure. With this LSMP framework we provide new mechanistic insights, demonstrating a role for thermodynamic, dynamic, and diabatic processes in sea ice impacts on atmospheric variability. Understanding these processes from a synoptic perspective is critical as some LSMPs play an outsized role in producing the mean response to Arctic sea ice loss. Significance Statement: The goal of this study is to understand how future Arctic sea ice loss might impact daily weather patterns over North America. We use a global climate model to produce one set of simulations where sea ice is similar to present conditions and another that represents conditions at the end of the twenty-first century. Daily patterns in large-scale circulation at roughly 5.5 km in altitude are then identified using a machine learning method. We find that sea ice loss tends to de-amplify these patterns and their associated impacts on temperature nearer the surface. Our methodology allows us to probe more deeply into the mechanisms responsible for these changes, which provides a new way to understand how sea ice loss can impact the daily weather we experience. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The mid-Pliocene (approximately 3.3–3.0 Ma) was one of the past geological warm periods. Since this past warmer climate was in many respects comparable to near future warming projections, how the regional monsoonal rainfall changed during the mid-Pliocene is an important scientific and socioeconomic concern. Based on phase 2 of the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP2), this work examines the simulated changes of Sahel summer rainfall during the mid-Pliocene. The results show the considerable intermodel uncertainty of the simulated mid-Pliocene Sahel rainfall changes in the PlioMIP2 multimodel ensemble, which is due to the uncertainties of both the simulated dynamic and thermodynamic responses to this past warmer climate. In particular, we find that the intermodel spread in the simulated northern North American warming is a major source of the uncertainty of the mid-Pliocene Sahel summer rainfall changes through two processes. One is a direct dynamic process: a stronger warming over northern North America could enhance the meridional temperature gradient between the extratropical and tropical regions, inducing an interhemisphere energy imbalance of the atmosphere. This could lead to a northward shift of the intertropical convergence zone, strengthening the Western African summer monsoon (WASM) circulation and Sahel summer rainfall. Another is an indirect thermodynamic process: the strengthened WASM circulation could further induce anomalous moisture convergence over the Sahel region, increasing local atmospheric moisture at the low-level troposphere, in favor of a wetter Sahel. Our results suggest that an improved warming simulation over northern North America is essential for the hydrological cycle simulation around the Sahel in the mid-Pliocene warmer climate. Significance Statement: The Sahel summer rainfall change in a global warmer climate is a widespread scientific and socioeconomic issue because of its important impacts on regional agriculture, ecosystems, food security, water resources, and even cultural environment. However, the present study identifies a nonnegligible intermodel uncertainty of the simulated Sahel rainfall changes during the mid-Pliocene (one of the most recent geological warm periods in Earth's history) in the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project phase 2 (PlioMIP2) multimodel ensemble. In particular, such an intermodel uncertainty of the simulated Sahel rainfall changes during the mid-Pliocene is attributed to that of the simulated northern North America warming via both the direct dynamic process and the indirect thermodynamic process. This is quite different from the uncertainty source of near-future projections of Sahel summer rainfall changes. The present results improve our understanding of the underlying physics of the hydrological cycle change around the Sahel region in the mid-Pliocene warmer climate, with implications for the future projections of regional monsoonal rainfall. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Managing annual row crops on marginally productive croplands can be environmentally unsustainable and result in variable economic returns. Incorporating perennial bioenergy feedstocks into marginally productive cropland can engender ecosystem services and enhance climate resiliency while also diversifying farm incomes. We use one of the oldest bioenergy-specific field experiments in North America to evaluate economically and environmentally sustainable management practices for growing perennial grasses on marginal cropland. This long-term field trial called 9804 was established in 1998 in eastern Nebraska and compared the productivity and sustainability of corn (Zea mays L.) --both corn grain and corn stover--and switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) bioenergy systems under different harvest strategies and nitrogen (N) fertilizer rates. This experiment demonstrated that switchgrass, compared to corn, is a reliable and sustainable bioenergy feedstock. This experiment has been a catalyst for other bioenergy projects which have also expanded our understanding of growing and managing bioenergy feedstocks on marginal cropland. We (1) synthesize research from this long-term experiment and (2) provide perspective concerning both the knowledge gained from this experiment and knowledge gaps and how to fill them as well as the role switchgrass will play in the future of bioenergy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pan global Permian coal measures are unique in the evolution of the Earth, not matched in any period before or since. Middle and late Permian coal-bearing strata are widely distributed in Mongolia. In particular, a large concentration of transtensive coal-bearing sub-basins is located in southern Mongolia, some of which are well documented. However, the late Permian coal measures developed along the shores of the Mongol-Transbaikalian Seaway in central Mongolia, the focus of this contribution, has received very limited attention. This study focuses on the c. 420 m thick coal-bearing middle part of a c. 2,600 m thick Permo-Triassic succession in the Bayanjargalan district. The study draws on data from 38 drillholes, 3 km of trenches, mapping, petrological analysis of sandstone samples, analysis of macroflora, fauna and trace fossils, 82 coal quality samples as well as washability and ash XRD analysis from a 3t coal bulk sample. The unstable and wedge-shaped architecture of the coal seams strongly suggest a syntectonic influence on their development. Paleoclimatic indicators suggest the peat mire ecosystem developed during relatively cold - temperate climatic conditions. Peat-forming plants such as Cordaites, Rufloria and Koretrophyllites probably benefited from moist air currents along the seaway. Plant-arthropod interactions are reported from two sites, in particular DT228 and DT246 oviposition lesions, the latter being almost twice the size of a previous report from North America. Results from 82 proximate analyses returned consistent very high ash yields of 46.95% (db) and 43.45% (adb) from the 3t bulk sample, which are unusual for Permian coals in Mongolia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simple Summary: The iconic monarch butterfly has undergone a dramatic decline in western North America since the 1990s, but in recent years has shown a capacity for resilience. This review identifies and investigates the likely drivers of this decline and resilience, and discusses their relative importance from a holistic viewpoint. Pesticides (particularly neonicotinoid insecticides), climate change, and habitat loss are likely to be the prime drivers of contemporary decline and instability in monarch population dynamics. Natural enemies (predators, parasites, and pathogens) are less likely to be a major contributor to contemporary population fluctuations, except on a local scale. Adaptation to changing environmental conditions will be an important component of the ongoing ability of western monarchs to show resilience. Human involvement with monarchs is a good and necessary thing for sustainable conservation, helping to prevent the 'extinction of experience', and the loss of human-nature contact, which has major adverse implications for nature conservation generally. Monarch butterfly populations in western North America suffered a substantial decline, from millions of butterflies overwintering in California in the 1980s to less than 400,000 at the beginning of the 21st century. The introduction of neonicotinoid insecticides in the mid–1990s and their subsequent widespread use appears to be the most likely major factor behind this sudden decline. Habitat loss and unfavorable climates (high temperatures, aridity, and winter storms) have also played important and ongoing roles. These factors kept overwintering populations stable but below 300,000 during 2001–2017. Late winter storm mortality and consequent poor spring reproduction drove winter populations to less than 30,000 butterflies during 2018–2019. Record high temperatures in California during the fall of 2020 appeared to prematurely terminate monarch migration, resulting in the lowest overwintering population (1899) ever recorded. Many migrants formed winter-breeding populations in urban areas. Normal seasonal temperatures in the autumns of 2021 and 2022 enabled overwintering populations to return to around the 300,000 level, characteristic of the previous two decades. Natural enemies (predators, parasitoids, parasites, and pathogens) may be important regional or local drivers at times but they are a consistent and fundamental part of monarch ecology. Human interference (capture, rearing) likely has the least impact on monarch populations. The rearing of monarch caterpillars, particularly by children, is an important human link to nature that has positive ramifications for insect conservation beyond monarch butterflies and should be encouraged. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The North Atlantic Oscillation explains a large fraction of the climate variability across the North Atlantic from the eastern seaboard of North America across the whole of Europe. Many studies have linked the North Atlantic Oscillation to climate extremes in this region, especially in winter, which has motivated considerable study of this pattern of variability. However, one overlooked feature of how the North Atlantic Oscillation has changed over time is the explained variance of the pattern. Here we show that there has been a considerable increase in the percentage variance explained by the NAO over the 20th century from 32 % in 1930 to 53 % by the end of the 20th century. Whether this change is due to natural variability, a forced response to climate change, or some combination remains unclear. However, we found no evidence for a forced response from an ensemble of 50 CMIP6 models. These models did all show substantial internal variability in the strength of the North Atlantic Oscillation, but it was biased towards being too high compared to the reanalysis and with too little variation over time. Since there is a direct connection between the North Atlantic Oscillation and climate extremes over the region, this has direct consequences for both the long term projection and near term prediction of changes to climate extremes in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A 2020 metastudy by Knutson et al. gave distributions for possible changes in the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones under climate change. The results form a great resource for those who model the impacts of tropical cyclones. However, a number of steps of processing may be required to use the results in practice. These include interpolation in time, distribution fitting, and reverse engineering of correlations. In this paper we study another processing step that may be required, which is adjusting the frequency change results so that they apply to landfalling frequencies. An adjustment is required because the metastudy results give frequency adjustments as a function of storm lifetime maximum intensity rather than landfall intensity. Increases in the frequency of category-4 and category-5 storms, by lifetime maximum intensity, then contribute to increases in the frequencies of storms of all intensities at landfall. We consider North Atlantic Ocean storms and use historical storm information to quantify this effect as a function of landfall intensity and region. Whereas the original metastudy results suggest that the mean frequency of category-3 storms will decrease, our analysis suggests that the mean frequency of landfalling category-3 storms will increase. Our results are highly uncertain, particularly because we assume that tracks and genesis locations of storms will not change, even though some recent climate model results suggest otherwise. However, making the adjustments we describe is likely to be a better way to model future landfall risk than applying the original metastudy frequency changes directly at landfall. Significance Statement: A recent metastudy gave distributions for possible changes in the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones under climate change. For the North Atlantic Ocean, we show how to convert these results to changes at landfall. This conversion increases the changes in the frequencies of storms in intensity categories 0–3, and, in particular, the mean frequency change of storms in category 3 flips from decreasing to increasing in most regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Inland surface waters are abundant in the tundra and boreal forests of North America, essential to environments and human societies but vulnerable to climate changes. These high-latitude water bodies differ greatly in their morphological and topological characteristics related to the formation, type, and vulnerability. In this paper, we present a water body dataset for the North American high latitudes (WBD-NAHL). Nearly 6.5 million water bodies were identified, with approximately 6 million (∼90 %) of them smaller than 0.1 km2. The dataset provides area and morphological attributes for every water body. During this study, we developed an automated approach for detecting surface water extent and identifying water bodies in the 10 m resolution Sentinel-2 multispectral satellite data to enhance the capability of delineating small water bodies and their morphological attributes. The approach was applied to the Sentinel-2 data acquired in 2019 to produce the water body dataset for the entire tundra and boreal forests in North America. The dataset provided a more complete representation of the region than existing regional datasets for North America, e.g., Permafrost Region Pond and Lake (PeRL). The total accuracy of the detected water extent by the WBD-NAHL dataset was 96.36 % through comparison to interpreted data for locations randomly sampled across the region. Compared to the 30 m or coarser-resolution water datasets, e.g., JRC GSW yearly water history, HydroLakes, and Global Lakes and Wetlands Database (GLWD), the WBD-NAHL provided an improved ability on delineating water bodies and reported higher accuracies in the size, number, and perimeter attributes of water body by comparing to PeRL and interpreted regional dataset. This dataset is available from the National Tibetan Plateau/Third Pole Environment Data Center (TPDC; http://data.tpdc.ac.cn , last access: 6 June 2022): 10.11888/Hydro.tpdc.271021 (Feng and Sui, 2020). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The grasslands of North America are threatened by woody encroachment. Restoring historical fire regimes has been used to manage brush encroachment. However, fire management may be insufficient due to the nonlinear and hysteretic responses of vegetation recovery following encroachment and the social–political constraints affecting fire management. We synthesized the fire thresholds required to control woody encroachment by typical encroaching species in North America, especially the Great Plains region, and identified the social–political constraints facing fire management in selected grassland national parks. Our synthesis revealed the resistance, hysteresis, and irreversibility of encroached grasslands using fire and emphasized the need for a combination of brush management methods if the impacts of climate change are to be addressed. Frequent fires alone may maintain grassland states, reflecting resistance. However, high-intensity fires exceeding fire-mortality thresholds are required to exclude non-resprouting shrubs and trees, indicating hysteresis. Fire alone may be insufficient to reverse encroachment by resprouting species, exhibiting reversibility. In practice, appropriate fire management may restore resistant grassland states. However, social–political constraints have restricted the use of frequent and high-intensity fires, thereby reducing the effectiveness of management actions to control woody encroachment of grasslands in national parks. This research proposes a resilience-based framework to manage woody encroachment in grassland national parks and similar protected areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate model projections of atmospheric circulation patterns, their frequency, and associated temperature and precipitation anomalies under a high-end global warming scenario are assessed over the Pacific Northwest of North America for the final three decades of the twenty-first century. Model simulations are from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and circulation patterns are identified using the self-organizing maps (SOMs) approach, applied to 500-hPa geopotential height (Z500) anomalies. Overall, the range of projected circulation patterns is similar to that in the current climate, especially in winter, whereas in summer the models project a general reduction in the magnitude of Z500 anomalies. Significant changes in pattern frequencies are also projected in summer, with an overall decrease in the frequency of patterns with large Z500 anomalies. In winter, patterns historically associated with anomalously cold weather in northern latitudes are projected to warm the most, and in summer the largest temperature increases are projected over inland areas. Precipitation is found to increase across all seasons and most SOM patterns. However, some summer patterns that are associated with above-average precipitation in the current climate are projected to become significantly drier by the end of the century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding seed characteristics, germination, and seedling establishment patterns is essential for formulating effective management strategies to control invasive species. Glossy buckthorn (Frangula alnus) is a shrub or small tree from Eurasia that has become invasive in North America, and which has negative impacts on plant communities and ecosystems. In this study, we analyzed the germination response of glossy buckthorn seeds to different temperatures (12, 14, 16, 18, 20, 24, and 28 °C), various stratification lengths (4 to 20 weeks), and scarification conditions to measure the impact on breaking seed dormancy, and the effect of light in triggering germination. Analysis using distinct time-to-event approaches, including the Kaplan–Meier estimator and Cox proportional hazard model, was employed to interpret germination data. Glossy buckthorn seeds exhibited physiological dormancy and required cold stratification to germinate. At 12 °C, only 14% of the seeds could germinate. At warmer temperatures, germination rates increased, reaching a peak of 70% at 20 °C. At 24 °C and 28 °C, germination declined, and seeds were probably induced into secondary dormancy. Scarified seeds had a higher probability of germination than non-scarified ones, even at the lowest temperatures. Darkness had a negative impact on germination at all tested temperatures. This study significantly advances our understanding of how temperature, light, stratification, and scarification impact glossy buckthorn seeds, elucidating the species' seasonal germination patterns in North America. The results emphasize that glossy buckthorn utilizes seed banks as a primary strategy for invading and establishing in new habitats. The ungerminated seeds form persistent seed banks, ensuring F. alnus' survival and bolstering its chances of successful establishment and invasion. As climate change drives temperature increases, it may affect seeds in the soil, altering stratification periods and consequently shifting the timing of germination. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

SNOwpack TELemetry observations and model simulations both demonstrate that the fractional contribution of October through December (early season) snowfall to peak snow accumulation in North America increases with latitude due to both colder temperatures and Pacific storm tracks focusing further north earlier in the season. Early season snowfall also makes up greater than 60 percent of peak accumulation in interior low‐precipitation locations leeward of mountains, particularly those that are subject to strong, warm winds and midwinter snow loss. Early season snow observations show promise in predicting peak snow water equivalent in locations where large‐scale ocean‐atmosphere patterns similarly influence fall and winter conditions, and in northern maritime locations where winter temperatures are warm enough that rain on snow and midwinter melt occur. Because climate change is likely to increase the extent of midwinter melt, the latter relationship is expected to become important over more locations in the future. Plain Language Summary: Across North America, snow accumulates from October until the following spring. Early season snow, defined as the snow that accumulates by the end of December, is a greater fraction of total snow accumulation at higher latitudes and at colder locations. Early season snow accumulation can be used to predict peak snow accumulation. Predictions are more skillful at locations where fall precipitation is correlated with winter precipitation because more snow at the end of December indicates that weather patterns are favorable for greater than average snowfall to continue. Predictions also have skill at warmer northern locations where more snow on the ground early season increases the likelihood that mixed rain‐snow events add water to the snowpack rather than melting the snow. Predictions at warm southern locations do not have skill because winter and spring snowfall is highly variable, and frequently little to no snow has accumulated by the end of December. Key Points: Fall snow contributes more to peak snow at colder and more northerly locationsFall snow can be used to predict peak snow where large scale ocean and atmosphere patterns influence annual snowfall variationsFall snow regulates cold content, which in warm regions may tip a snowpack between lasting or ablating midwinter, influencing peak snow [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The predictability of temperatures in North America is of great importance for local agriculture and human health. In autumn (SON), the temperature in North America is correlated with ENSO, but its predictive skill is limited. Here, we show that spring (MAM) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the southwest Pacific (SWP) exhibit a higher correlation with autumn temperature in North America (r = 0.73) than ENSO. This cross-seasonal and cross-hemispheric relationship is established via the western tropical Pacific (WTP) region. The spring SWP SST anomalies show a cross-hemispheric propagation embedded in the southerly monsoonal flow through the wind–evaporation–SST feedback, which sustains the progression of SST anomalies toward the WTP in autumn. The AGCM simulations from multimodels show that active convection in the WTP caused by SST warming stimulate a Rossby wave train propagating downward to North America, where it is governed by an anomalous high with increased atmospheric thickness and tropospheric temperature. Consequently, the longwave radiative heating over North America is enhanced, raising the surface air temperature. These results indicate that the SWP SST is a useful predictor of North American temperature 6 months in advance through the cross-hemispheric influence. A model based on the spring SWP SST and preceding winter ENSO (Niño-3.4) shows a high predictive skill for the autumn temperature anomalies in North America. Significance Statement: Seasonal predictions of surface temperature are important for agricultural decision-making, disaster prevention, and mitigation. Over the western Pacific, associated with the seasonal evolution of ITCZ, there is a strong northward progression of SST anomaly signals generated in the southwest Pacific. This study finds that this cross-hemispheric SST propagation can significantly impact the autumn surface temperature over central North America through the atmospheric bridge. A statistical model incorporating southwest Pacific SST for spring is constructed to predict the North American autumn surface temperature and exhibits high consistency with observations. This improves our understanding of the interhemispheric interactions at seasonal time scales and the seasonal predictability of the North American climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Armillaria altimontana is a fungus (Basidiomycota, Agaricomycetes, Agaricales, and Physalacriaceae) that is generally considered as a weak/opportunistic pathogen or saprophyte on many tree hosts. It widely occurs across the northwestern USA to southern British Columbia, Canada, but relatively little is known about its ecological role in the diverse forest ecosystems where it occurs. This review summarizes the biology and ecology of A. altimontana, including its identification, life cycle, distribution, host associations, and bioclimatic models under climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forest landscapes across western North America (wNA) have experienced extensive changes over the last two centuries, while climatic warming has become a global reality over the last four decades. Resulting interactions between historical increases in forested area and density and recent rapid warming, increasing insect mortality, and wildfire burned areas, are now leading to substantial abrupt landscape alterations. These outcomes are forcing forest planners and managers to identify strategies that can modify future outcomes that are ecologically and/or socially undesirable. Past forest management, including widespread harvest of fire‐ and climate‐tolerant large old trees and old forests, fire exclusion (both Indigenous and lightning ignitions), and highly effective wildfire suppression have contributed to the current state of wNA forests. These practices were successful at meeting short‐term demands, but they match poorly to modern realities. Hagmann et al. review a century of observations and multi‐scale, multi‐proxy, research evidence that details widespread changes in forested landscapes and wildfire regimes since the influx of European colonists. Over the preceding 10 millennia, large areas of wNA were already settled and proactively managed with intentional burning by Indigenous tribes. Prichard et al. then review the research on management practices historically applied by Indigenous tribes and currently applied by some managers to intentionally manage forests for resilient conditions. They address 10 questions surrounding the application and relevance of these management practices. Here, we highlight the main findings of both papers and offer recommendations for management. We discuss progress paralysis that often occurs with strict adherence to the precautionary principle; offer insights for dealing with the common problem of irreducible uncertainty and suggestions for reframing management and policy direction; and identify key knowledge gaps and research needs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides an updated analysis of observed changes in extreme precipitation using high-quality station data up to 2018. We examine changes in extreme precipitation represented by annual maxima of 1-day (Rx1day) and 5-day (Rx5day) precipitation accumulations at different spatial scales and attempt to address whether the signal in extreme precipitation has strengthened with several years of additional observations. Extreme precipitation has increased at about two-thirds of stations and the percentage of stations with significantly increasing trends is significantly larger than that can be expected by chance for the globe, continents including Asia, Europe, and North America, and regions including central North America, eastern North America, northern Central America, northern Europe, the Russian Far East, eastern central Asia, and East Asia. The percentage of stations with significantly decreasing trends is not different from that expected by chance. Fitting extreme precipitation to generalized extreme value distributions with global mean surface temperature (GMST) as a covariate reaffirms the statistically significant connections between extreme precipitation and temperature. The global median sensitivity, percentage change in extreme precipitation per 1 K increase in GMST is 6.6% (5.1% to 8.2%; 5%–95% confidence interval) for Rx1day and is slightly smaller at 5.7% (5.0% to 8.0%) for Rx5day. The comparison of results based on observations ending in 2018 with those from data ending in 2000–09 shows a consistent median rate of increase, but a larger percentage of stations with statistically significant increasing trends, indicating an increase in the detectability of extreme precipitation intensification, likely due to the use of longer records. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A mismatch between model- and proxy-based Holocene climate change, known as the "Holocene conundrum", may partially originate from the poor spatial coverage of climate reconstructions in, for example, Asia, limiting the number of grid cells for model–data comparisons. Here we investigate hemispheric, latitudinal, and regional mean time series and time-slice anomaly maps of pollen-based reconstructions of mean annual temperature, mean July temperature, and annual precipitation from 1908 records in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics. Temperature trends show strong latitudinal patterns and differ between (sub-)continents. While the circum-Atlantic regions in Europe and eastern North America show a pronounced Middle Holocene temperature maximum, western North America shows only weak changes, and Asia mostly shows a continuous Holocene temperature increase. Likewise, precipitation trends show certain regional peculiarities such as the pronounced Middle Holocene precipitation maximum between 40 and 50 ∘ N in Asia and Holocene increasing trends in Europe and western North America, which can all be linked with Holocene changes in the regional circulation pattern responding to temperature change. Given a background of strong regional heterogeneity, we conclude that the calculation of global or hemispheric means, which initiated the Holocene conundrum debate, should focus more on understanding the spatiotemporal patterns and their regional drivers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the mid‐latitudes, the strongly meandering jet stream has contributed to worldwide weather patterns and climate variations. However, the shape variations of the jet and its climatic impacts remain unclear. In this study, we introduced an ellipse‐fitting technique to fit the high‐value wind speeds and identified the location, shape, and strength variations of the winter‐averaged North Pacific jet (NPJ). Particularly, this method has the advantage of objectively detecting the shape variations of the NPJ, including the area and orientation. Focused on the NPJ shape, the area and orientation variations are generally out‐of‐phase, leading to a large‐straight jet and a small‐tilted jet. The shape variation of the NPJ is highly linked to the variations in both mean and extreme temperatures in winter over East Asia and North America. Associated with the small‐tilted NPJ, northern East Asia and northern North America frequently suffer from warm and cold events in winter, respectively, while associated with the large‐straight NPJ, the patterns are almost opposite but with an asymmetric distribution to the small‐tilted NPJ. The distribution of the 300 hPa wind speed anomalies shows a spatial‐asymmetric feature at the exit and entrance of the NPJ. Large positive (negative) anomalies and the poleward (equatorward) shift at the NPJ exit and locations downstream (170°E−140°W) act in combination on the formation and maintenance of the large‐straight (small‐tilted) jet, which may be strongly connected with the sea surface temperature variations and synoptic‐scale transient eddy activities there. Our findings would be helpful in providing potential indicators of temperature variations. Plain Language Summary: The shape of the upper‐level jet stream is closely associated with weather and climate variations, which is not clearly understood yet. In this study, we introduced an ellipse‐fitting technique to fit high‐value wind speeds and identify the location, shape, and strength variations of the North Pacific jet (NPJ). This method has the advantage of objectively detecting characteristics of the jet stream, particularly for shape variations. The shape variations of the NPJ are closely linked to the variations both in winter mean and extreme temperature, particularly over East Asia and North America. Associated with the small‐tilted NPJ, warm events would more frequently occur in the northern part of East Asia, while cold events would easily affect northern North America. Sea surface temperature anomalies and the increased presence of surface high and low‐pressure systems around the jet exit region may have a strong connection with the different structures of the NPJ. Our findings would be helpful in providing a potential indicator of temperature variations. Key Points: An ellipse‐fitting technique has been introduced to detect the jet stream automatically and objectivelyPrimary combinations of the North Pacific jet's (NPJ's) shape include a large‐straight and small‐tilted jetVariations in the NPJ's shape are highly linked to out‐of‐phase variations in temperature extremes over East Asia and North America [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is expected to shift the boreal biome northward through expansion at the northern and contraction at the southern boundary respectively. However, biome-scale evidence of such a shift is rare. Here, we used remotely-sensed tree cover data to quantify temporal changes across the North American boreal biome from 2000 to 2019. We reveal a strong north-south asymmetry in tree cover change, coupled with a range shrinkage of tree cover distributions. We found no evidence for tree cover expansion in the northern biome, while tree cover increased markedly in the core of the biome range. By contrast, tree cover declined along the southern biome boundary, where losses were related largely to wildfires and timber logging. We show that these contrasting trends are structural indicators for a possible onset of a biome contraction which may lead to long-term carbon declines. Boreal forests are expanding at high latitudes yet declining at their southern boundaries. Here, the authors show that such trends are not symmetrical in North America, where poleward expansion of boreal forests did not offset southern declines often linked to wildfires and logging. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: We assess the role of contemporary oceanography and species traits in shaping observed patterns of biogeography over broad spatial scales. Location: Our study domain covers the east and west coasts of North America, from 30° to 73° N on the east coast and 33° to 73° N on the west coast. Time period: Hydrodynamic models use climatological fields from 1990 to 2015 on the east coast, and 1993 to 2018 on the west coast. Major taxa studied: Model simulations represent larval dispersal for generalized benthic invertebrate species distributed in the subtidal zone from 10 to 100 m depth, with planktonic larval durations ranging from 21–60 days. Methods: We conducted a literature review to identify major biogeographic barriers along the east and west coasts of North America, and then assessed the permeability of these barriers to larval dispersal using Lagrangian particle tracking. We ran a series of simulations in which we varied the suitable habitat distribution, planktonic larval duration, and spawning seasonality of simulated larvae (i.e., particles) to assess the effects of species traits on biogeography. Results: Our results showed a strong alignment of observed biogeographic barriers with larval dispersal patterns, with high variation in barrier permeability depending on the traits of the species considered. The location of suitable habitat and the season during which particle release occurred were the biological traits that drove much of the variation in barrier permeability among simulations on both coasts. Main conclusions Our results indicate an important role of contemporary oceanographic and geographic features in determining the biogeography of species whose primary dispersal is during larval stages, suggesting that climate change is likely to alter patterns of species biogeography. Our results also demonstrate that species traits play a strong role in determining the location and strength of biogeographic barriers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Freshwater mussels of the order Unionida are currently one of the most imperiled groups of organisms in the North American faunal region. Accurate risk assessments and development of effective management strategies for remaining populations require knowledge of thermal limits in the face of increasing surface water temperature due to climate change and various anthropogenic factors. We conducted a systematic literature review of unionid mussels (order Unionida, families Margaritiferidae and Unionidae) in the North American faunal region to (1) summarize lethal thermal tolerance data by life stage and taxonomy, (2) discuss ecological and climate change implications of existing lethal tolerance data, and (3) identify needs for future research. We identified lethal tolerance estimates for only 28 of 302 species in the families Unionidae and Margaritiferidae. The mean acute median lethal temperatures were 32.8 °C for glochidia (19 species), 35.0 °C for juveniles (13 species), and 36.3 °C for adults (4 species). Generally, glochidia were less tolerant than juveniles or adults of the same species—but there were several exceptions. Generally, Amblemini had the highest acute and chronic thermal tolerance of all tribes followed by Anodontini, Pleurobemini, Lampsilini, and Quadrilini. Acclimation temperature affected lethal tolerance endpoints in less than half (52 of 145) of comparisons within species. Lethal tolerance data for additional species, combined with a comprehensive database of in situ surface water temperatures, would be useful for modeling the frequency and duration of lethal limit exceedance in North America and identifying populations currently living at or near their upper lethal limits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Humans are able to thrive in a multitude of ecological and social environments, including varied environments over an individual lifetime. Migration—leaving one place of residence for another—is a central feature of many people's life histories, and environmental change goes hand‐in‐hand with migration, both in terms of cause and consequence. Climate change has amplified this connection between environment and migration, with the potential to profoundly impact millions of lives. Although climate‐induced migration has been at the forefront of other disciplines in the social sciences, evolutionary anthropologists (EAs) have given it little attention. In this paper we draw upon existing literature and contribute our EA perspective to present a framework for analyzing climate‐induced migration that utilizes theoretical approaches from a variety of social science disciplines. We focus on three overlapping dimensions—time, space, and severity—relevant to understanding the impact of climate change on human migration. We apply this framework to case studies from North America of people impacted by climate change and extreme weather events, including hurricanes, droughts, rising sea‐levels, and wildfires. We also consider how access to both economic and social resources influence decisions regarding migration. Research focused on climate‐induced human migration can benefit equally from the addition of EA perspectives and a more interdisciplinary theoretical approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is reshuffling Earth's biota as species shift their current ranges to track suitable conditions, often in response to increasing habitat temperatures. While redistribution may be necessary for species persistence, there can also be impacts on existing communities upon arrival of novel, range‐shifting species. Anticipating the beneficial versus deleterious impacts of range‐shifting species is essential for determining whether active management is needed, which could include implementation of strategies from facilitation (eg managed relocation) to suppression (eg prevention and control). We used an impact assessment protocol developed for invasive species to evaluate potential consequences of range shifts in coastal marine ecosystems of North America. Our review demonstrates how invasion impact assessment combined with species vulnerability assessment could support decisions about management of range shifts. We found that ~50% of these shifting coastal species have had negative impacts in their expanded ranges. The importance of proactive management is likely to increase as the number and extent of range shifts accelerates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Impacts of global climate change will primarily be felt through the water cycle. Adaptation to changing conditions in transboundary basins is an important precondition to ensure regional sustainable development and political stability. However, adaptation measures in one basin country can affect water resources and adaptation options elsewhere, therefore often requiring coordinated or joint responses by riparian countries. The paper examines the potential of climate policy instruments in strengthening adaptation to changes in transboundary river basins in North America's Colorado River Basin and Southern Africa's Orange-Senqu River Basin. It finds that climate policy instruments are yet rarely employed to jointly manage adaptation in shared rivers but nonetheless harbour great potential. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The snowshoe hare (Lepus americanus) possesses a broad suite of adaptations to winter, including a seasonal coat color molt. Recently, climate change has been implicated in the range contraction of snowshoe hares along the southern range boundary. With shortening snow season duration, snowshoe hares are experiencing increased camouflage mismatch with their environment reducing survival. Phenological variation of hare molt at regional scales could facilitate local adaptation in the face of climate change, but the level of variation, especially along the southern range boundary, is unknown. Using a network of trail cameras and historical museum specimens, we (1) developed contemporary and historical molt phenology curves in the Upper Great Lakes region, USA, (2) calculated molt rate and variability in and among populations, and (3) quantified the relationship of molt characteristics to environmental conditions for snowshoe hares across North America. We found that snowshoe hares across the region exhibited similar fall and spring molt phenologies, rates and variation. Yet, an insular island population of hares on Isle Royale National Park, MI, completed their molt a week earlier in the fall and initiated molt almost 2 weeks later in the spring as well as exhibited slower rates of molting in the fall season compared to the mainland. Over the last 100 years, snowshoe hares across the region have not shifted in fall molt timing; though contemporary spring molt appears to have advanced by 17 days (~ 4 days per decade) compared to historical molt phenology. Our research indicates that some variation in molt phenology exists for snowshoe hares in the Upper Great Lakes region, but whether this variation is enough to offset the consequences of climate change remains to be seen. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dirca palustris L. (eastern leatherwood) is an understory shrub found throughout much of eastern North America. Dirca palustris wood has a low concentration of lignin, which is a molecule that grants structural rigidity to cell walls. The branches of D. palustris are thus remarkably flexible, but their low lignin content could cause greater vulnerability to water stress. We examined the conductivity, vessel anatomy, and field water potential of D. palustris and conducted ecological surveys. The data showed that D. palustris was not experiencing substantial drought-induced dysfunction in the field, even during an exceptionally hot and dry summer. Its water potentials in the field were less negative than water potentials that caused substantial embolism in the lab, and it continued to photosynthesize and conduct water throughout the summer. We also found that D. palustris had small vessels, which may help it resist water stress. Ecological surveys showed that 15% of surveyed plants survived litterfall from canopy trees, almost all without damage, demonstrating a possible advantage of the low lignin content and flexible branches seen in D. palustris. These characteristics may allow D. palustris to continue to thrive in increasingly challenging environments brought on by climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The influence of genetic drift on population dynamics during Pleistocene glacial cycles is well understood, but the role of selection in shaping patterns of genomic variation during these events is less explored. We resequenced whole genomes to investigate how demography and natural selection interact to generate the genomic landscapes of Downy and Hairy Woodpecker, species codistributed in previously glaciated North America. First, we explored the spatial and temporal patterns of genomic diversity produced by neutral evolution. Next, we tested (i) whether levels of nucleotide diversity along the genome are correlated with intrinsic genomic properties, such as recombination rate and gene density, and (ii) whether different demographic trajectories impacted the efficacy of selection. Our results revealed cycles of bottleneck and expansion, and genetic structure associated with glacial refugia. Nucleotide diversity varied widely along the genome, but this variation was highly correlated between the species, suggesting the presence of conserved genomic features. In both taxa, nucleotide diversity was positively correlated with recombination rate and negatively correlated with gene density, suggesting that linked selection played a role in reducing diversity. Despite strong fluctuations in effective population size, the maintenance of relatively large populations during glaciations may have facilitated selection. Under these conditions, we found evidence that the individual demographic trajectory of populations modulated linked selection, with purifying selection being more efficient in removing deleterious alleles in large populations. These results highlight that while genome‐wide variation reflects the expected signature of demographic change during climatic perturbations, the interaction of multiple processes produces a predictable and highly heterogeneous genomic landscape. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bergmann's rule—which posits that larger animals live in colder areas—is thought to influence variation in body size within species across space and time, but evidence for this claim is mixed.We used Bayesian hierarchical models to test four competing hypotheses for spatiotemporal variation in body size within 20 bat species across North America: (1) the heat conservation hypothesis, which posits that increased body size facilitates body heat conservation (and which is the traditional explanation for the mechanism underlying Bergmann's rule); (2) the heat mortality hypothesis, which posits that increased body size increases susceptibility to acute heat stress; (3) the resource availability hypothesis, which posits that increased body size is enabled in areas with more abundant food; and (4) the starvation resistance hypothesis, which posits that increased body size reduces susceptibility to starvation during acute food shortages.Spatial variation in body mass was most consistently (and negatively) correlated with mean annual temperature, supporting the heat conservation hypothesis. Across time, variation in body mass was most consistently (and positively) correlated with net primary productivity, supporting the resource availability hypothesis.Climate change could influence body size in animals through both changes in mean annual temperature and resource availability. Rapid reductions in body size associated with increasing temperatures have occurred in short‐lived, fecund species, but such reductions will be obscured by changes in resource availability in longer‐lived, less fecund species. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The application of Accelerated Bridge Construction methods (ABC) to build, renovate and rehabilitate aging bridges is most likely to reduce the economic and social impacts of projects. This is especially relevant in countries with severe winter climates, where bridge construction is typically interrupted during the winter period. The objective of this study is to present the state of the art related to elements, systems, connections and materials used for bridge superstructures in ABC projects and to highlight their adaptability to cold or northern climate countries. The literature review and presentation of results are based on the gathering of Prefabricated/Precast Bridge Elements and Systems (PBES) used for ABC projects in North America and which are also used in many countries around the world. Following this inventory, and after grouping the PBES, connections and materials, the authors were able to identify the possibility of adapting the ABC method for countries with cold and northern climates. Products that can be used down to −6 °C for connections are presented, and future research orientations are proposed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Locust swarms had periodically raged in both North American Plains (NAP) and East Asian Plains (EAP) before 1880 AD. After this period, the locust outbreaks almost never recurred in NAP but have continued to occur in EAP. Since large quantities of pesticides were used in the major agriculture regions of NAP in the late 1870s; this has been suggested as a possible major cause of the disappearing of locust outbreaks. Extensive applications of more effective chemical pesticides were also used in the granary regions of EAP in the 1950s in an effort to kill the pests at a much higher intensity. However, locust swarms came back again in many areas of China in the 1960s. Therefore, NAP locust extinction still remains a puzzle. Frequent locust outbreaks in EAP over the past 130 yr may offer clues to probe key control elements in the disappearing of locust outbreaks in NAP. This paper analyzes the climate extremes and monthly temperature-precipitation combines of NAP and EAP, and found the differences in their frequencies of these climate combines caused different locust fates in the two regions: restrained the locust outbreak in NAP but induced such events in EAP. Validation shows that severer EAP locust outbreak years were coincided with the climate extreme combines years. Thus we suggest that climate changes in frequency, extremes and trends can explain why the fate of the locust plague in EAP was different from that in NAP. The study also points out that, under the present global warming, cautions should be taken to make sure the pest hazard being nipped in the-bud. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sea surface temperature (SST) observations in the North Atlantic since 1870 reveal a region of enhanced warming off the northeastern coast of North America, and a region of cooling to the south of Greenland. It has been hypothesized that these adjacent SST trends are a result of long‐term changes in the buoyancy‐driven ocean circulation—a slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. The impacts of these historical SST trends on the atmosphere are estimated using idealized atmospheric general circulation model experiments in which the global atmosphere is exposed to modern climatological forcing minus the aforementioned regional SST trends. The local response includes a negative North Atlantic Oscillation tendency and southward shift of the wind forcing for the subtropical gyre. Due to planetary wave propagation, the regional SST trends also induce a northward shift of the intertropical convergence zone over the Indian Ocean. Implications for climate feedbacks and projections are discussed. Plain Language Summary: The ocean surface is warming over most of the planet, with a couple of notable exceptions. One is over the North Atlantic Ocean, just south of Greenland, where the temperature of the ocean surface has actually been cooling by about 1°C since 1870. Nearby, extending off the northeastern coastline of North America is a region where the ocean surface has been warming much faster than the global ocean on average—by about 1.5°C since 1870. This side‐by‐side pair of accelerated warming and cooling trends is likely due to a slowdown of the ocean's overturning circulation, which carries large amounts of heat energy from the tropics toward the poles. This paper reveals the effects of those unusual ocean temperature trends in the North Atlantic on the atmospheric circulation using a computer model of the global atmosphere. The model simulations indicate that these ocean temperature trends are causing shifts in the jet stream, changing the way the winds propel the upper ocean currents, and even have impacts quite far away by moving the tropical rain belt northward in the Indian Ocean. Key Points: The impact of historical sea surface temperature trends in the North Atlantic since 1870 is simulated with a global atmospheric modelAdjacent warming and cooling trends in the North Atlantic Ocean induce a negative NAO‐like response and southward‐shifted gyre forcingPropagation of planetary waves away from the North Atlantic induces a northward‐shifted intertropical convergence zone in the Indian Ocean [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Climate change is a defining issue and grand challenge for the health sector in North America. Synthesizing evidence on climate change impacts, climate-health adaptation, and climate-health mitigation is crucial for health practitioners and decision-makers to effectively understand, prepare for, and respond to climate change impacts on human health. This protocol paper outlines our process to systematically conduct a literature review to investigate the climate-health evidence base in North America. Methods: A search string will be used to search CINAHL®, Web of Science™, Scopus®, Embase® via Ovid, and MEDLINE® via Ovid aggregator databases. Articles will be screened using inclusion/exclusion criteria by two independent reviewers. First, the inclusion/exclusion criteria will be applied to article titles and abstracts, and then to the full articles. Included articles will be analyzed using quantitative and qualitative methods. Discussion: This protocol describes review methods that will be used to systematically and transparently create a database of articles published in academic journals that examine climate-health in North America. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Inland surface waters are abundant in the tundra and boreal forests in North America, essential to environments and human societies but vulnerable to climate changes. These high-latitude water bodies differ greatly in their morphological and topological characteristics related to the formation, type, and vulnerability. In this paper we present an inland surface water body inventory (SWBI) dataset for the tundra and boreal forests of North America. Nearly 6.7 million water bodies were identified, with approximately 6 million (~90 %) of them smaller than 0.1 km². The dataset provides geometry coverage and morphological attributes for every water body. During this study we developed an automated approach for detecting surface water extent and identifying water bodies in the 10 m resolution Sentinel-2 multispectral satellite data to enhance the capability for delineating small water bodies and their morphological attributes. The approach was applied to the Sentinel-2 data acquired in 2019 to produce the water body dataset for the entire tundra and boreal forests in North America, providing a more complete representation of the region than existing regional datasets, e.g., Permafrost Region Pond and Lake (PeRL). Total accuracy of the detected water extent by SWBI dataset was 96.36 % by comparing to interpreted data for locations randomly sampled across the region. Compared to the 30 m or coarser resolution water datasets, e.g., JRC GSW yearly water history, HydroLakes, and Global Lakes and Wetlands Database (GLWD), the SWBI provided an improved ability on delineating water bodies, and reported higher accuracies in the size, number, and perimeter attributes of water body by comparing to PeRL and interpreted regional dataset. This dataset is available on the National Tibetan Plateau/Third Pole Environment Data Center (TPDC, http://data.tpdc.ac.cn): DOI: 10.11888/Hydro.tpdc.271021 (Feng et al., 2020). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Species distribution models (SDMs) have emerged as essential tools in the equipment of many ecologists, useful to explore species distributions in space and time and answering an assortment of questions related to biogeography, climate change biology and conservation biology. Historically, most SDM research concentrated on well‐known organisms, especially vertebrates. In recent years, these tools are becoming increasingly important for predicting the distribution of understudied invertebrate taxa. Here, we reviewed the literature published on main terrestrial arthropod predators (ants, ground beetles and spiders) to explore some of the challenges and opportunities of species distribution modelling in mega‐diverse arthropod groups. Location: Global. Methods: Systematic mapping of the literature and bibliometric analysis. Results: Most SDM studies of animals to date have focused either on broad samples of vertebrates or on arthropod species that are charismatic (e.g. butterflies) or economically important (e.g. vectors of disease, crop pests and pollinators). We show that the use of SDMs to map the geography of terrestrial arthropod predators is a nascent phenomenon, with a near‐exponential growth in the number of studies over the past ten years and still limited collaborative networks among researchers. There is a bias in studies towards charismatic species and geographical areas that hold lower levels of diversity but greater availability of data, such as Europe and North America. Conclusions: Arthropods pose particular modelling challenges that add to the ones already present for vertebrates, but they should also offer opportunities for future SDM research as data and new methods are made available. To overcome data limitations, we illustrate the potential of modern data sources and new modelling approaches. We discuss areas of research where SDMs may be combined with dispersal models and increasingly available phylogenetic and functional data to understand evolutionary changes in ranges and range‐limiting traits over past and contemporary time‐scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To investigate the relative contributions of current vs. historical factors in explaining broad-scale diversity gradients using a combination of contemporary factors and a quantitative estimate of the temporal accessibility of areas for recolonization created by glacial retreat following the most recent Ice Age. The part of the Nearctic region of North America that was covered by ice sheets during the glacial maximum 20 000 BP. We used range maps to estimate the species richness of mammals and terrestrial birds in 48 400 km2 cells. Current conditions in each cell were quantified using seven climatic and topographical variables. Historical conditions were estimated using the number of years before present when an area became exposed as the ice sheets retreated during the post-Pleistocene climate warming. We attempted to tease apart contemporary and historical effects using multiple regression, partial regression and spatial autocorrelation analysis. A measure of current energy inputs, potential evapotranspiration, explained 76–82% of the variance in species richness, but time since deglaciation explained an additional 8–13% of the variance, primarily due to effects operating at large spatial scales. Because of spatial covariation between the historical climates influencing the melting of the ice sheet and current climates, it was not possible to partition their effects fully, but of the independent effects that could be identified, current climate explained two to seven times more variance in richness patterns than age. Factors acting in the present appear to have the strongest influence on the diversity gradient, but an historical signal persisting at least 13 000 years is still detectable. This has implications for modelling changes in diversity patterns in response to future global warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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