Search

This study investigated the uncertainty involved in statistical downscaling of hydroclimatic time series obtained by artificial neural networks (ANNs). Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) general circulation model (GCM) Canadian Earth System Model, version 5 (CanESM5), was used as large-scale predictor data for downscaling temperature and precipitation parameters. Two ANNs, feed forward and long short-term memory (LSTM), were utilized for statistical downscaling. To quantify the uncertainty of downscaling, prediction intervals (PIs) were estimated via the lower upper bound estimation (LUBE) method. To assess performance of proposed models in different climate regimes, data from the Tabriz and Rasht stations in Iran were employed. The calibrated models via historical GCM data were used for future projections via the high-forcing and fossil fuel–driven development scenario shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) 5-8.5. Projections were compared with the Canadian Regional Climate Model 4 (Can-RCM4) projections via the same scenario. Results indicated that both LSTM-based point predictions and PIs are more accurate than the feedforward neural network (FFNN)-based predictions, with an average of 55% higher Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) for point predictions and 25% lower coverage width criterion (CWC) for PIs. Projections suggested that Tabriz is going to experience a warmer climate with an increase in average temperature of 2° and 5°C for near and far futures, respectively, and a drier climate with a 20% decrease in precipitation until 2100. Future projections for the Rasht station, however, suggested a more uniform climate with less seasonal variability. Average precipitation will increase by up to 25% and 70% until near and far future periods, respectively. Ultimately, point predictions show that the average temperature in Rasht will increase by 1°C until the near future and then be a constant average temperature until the far future. Significance Statement: The downscaling of hydroclimatic parameters is subject to uncertainty. The best way is to provide an area with the highest contingency of them as a prediction interval. The reduction width of such an interval leads to increased confidence in explaining and predicting these processes. We proposed and applied a deep learning–based machine learning method for both point prediction and prediction interval estimation of temperature and precipitation parameters for the future over two different climatic regions. The results show the superiority of such a machine learning–based prediction interval estimation for quantification of the downscaling uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Taxis pose a higher threat to global climate change and human health through air emissions. However, the evidence on this topic is scarce, especially, in developing countries. Therefore, this study conducted estimation of fuel consumption (FC) and emission inventories on Tabriz taxi fleet (TTF), Iran. A structured questionnaire to obtain operational data of TTF, municipality organizations, and literature review were used as data sources. Then modeling was used to estimate fuel consumption ratio (FCR), emission factors (EFs), annual FC, and emissions of TTF using uncertainty analysis. Also, the impact of COVID-19 pandemic period was considered on the studied parameters. The results showed that TTF have high FCRs of 18.68 L/100 km (95% CI=17.67–19.69 L/100 km), which are not affected by age or mileage of taxis, significantly. The estimated EFs for TTF are higher than Euro standards, but the differences are not significant. However, it is critical as can be an indication of inefficiency of periodic regulatory technical inspection tests for TTF. COVID-19 pandemic caused significant decrease in annual total FC and emissions (9.03–15.6%), but significant increase in EFs of per-passenger-kilometer traveled (47.9–57.3%). Annual vehicle-kilometer-traveled by TTF and the estimated EFs for gasoline-compressed natural gas bi-fueled TTF are the main influential parameters in the variability of annual FC and emission levels. More studies on sustainable FC and emissions mitigation strategies are needed for TTF. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Regulating ecosystem services provided by urban forests are of great importance for the quality of life among city dwellers. To reach a maximum contribution to well-being in cities, the urban regulating ecosystem services (URES) must match with the demands in terms of space and time. If we understand the matches or mismatches between the current urban dwellers’ desired quality conditions (demand) and the supply of URES by urban forests (UF) in the cities, this will facilitate integrating the concepts of ecosystem services in urban planning and management, but such an assessment has suffered from major knowledge limitations. Since it is complex and problematic to identify the direct demands for URES and the spatiotemporal patterns therein, improving the demand indicators can help to determine the actual requirements. In this paper, a methodological approach based on indicators is presented and demonstrated for two important URES: air quality improvement and global climate change mitigation provided by urban trees and shrubs. Four air quality standards and greenhouse gas reduction targets were used and compared to supplies of the URES in Tabriz, Iran. Our results show that the mean contribution of the URES supply to air quality standards and greenhouse gas reduction targets is modest. Hence, in Tabriz, there is a strong mismatch between demand and supply. Mismatches at the city scale will have to be reduced by both a reduction in pollutant emissions and an increased provisioning of URES supply through urban greenery. The presented assessment approach and the results for Tabriz make it explicit how different the demands and supplies of the two studied URES are, and we expect similar mismatches in many other cities. Therefore, our approach, relatively simple but still realistic and easy-to-apply, can raise awareness about, and the utility of, the ecosystem services concepts for urban planning and policymaking. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although the Urmia Lake has undergone remarkable drought conditions within the past decades mainly due to climate change, drought studies covering the entire Urmia Lake Basin and all drought aspects are lacking. The present study investigated the spatial and temporal drought conditions in the Urmia Lake Basin for the past (1988-2017) and future (2021-2050 and 2051-2080) periods using five general circulation models (GCMs) under the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) scenarios RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5. The standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration index (SPEI) were compared. The SPEI predicted more drought events than the SPI, and it seemed to be a more suitable drought index than the SPI for the basin. In general, the future periods would encounter less drought conditions in terms of significant drought trends and duration than the observed period under all scenarios, but the frequency of quarterly severe drought events in the future periods would be higher than in the observed period. Furthermore, the stations Urmia (western bank) and Tabriz and Maragheh (eastern banks) would face the highest frequency of different types of quarterly drought events in the future periods compared with the observed period. The predicted high frequencies of drought events for the future periods can intensify the current low water level situation of the Urmia Lake, which seriously threatens all types of ecosystems in the basin. Therefore, serious actions need to be taken into account for efficient ecosystem and water resources management in the basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Evapotranspiration can be considered as an indicator in evaluating the effects of climate change. It is the sole factor with the capability of concurrently balancing the ecosystem energy and water fluxes. Reference evapotranspiration (ETo) is the amount of water evaporated from reference crop that is affected by climatic parameters. The aim of this study was to assess ETo during the period of 2020–2049 in various climatic zones of Iran (including Tabriz, Bushehr, Isfahan, Sanandaj and Urmia). Climatic parameters including relative humidity, wind speed, Sunshine hours, atmospheric pressure, maximum and minimum temperatures were utilized for calculating ETo using FAO Penman–Monteith equation. The NCEP data and HADCM3 model data (under scenario A2 and B2) were used for prediction of future climatic parameters during 2020–2049. Statistical down scaling model was used as a hybrid regression model as well as a stochastic weather data generator. The course period was between 1986 and 2015 that was regarded for calibration and evaluation of the model. Subsequently, evapotranspiration was estimated using the model outputs in the FAO Penman–Monteith equation. Results indicated that the simulated data by the model has the same accuracy and validity under both scenarios A2 and B2. Results showed that in the studied areas, ETo tend to have an increasing trend in upcoming years. In scenario A2, ETo will increase about 16.81, 0.137, 17.52, 9.46 and 2.57 mm year−1 in Tabriz, Bushehr, Isfahan, Sanandaj and Urmia stations, respectively. Also our results represented that ETo will increase about 7.67, 6.52, 10.33, 7.73 and 1.99 mm year−1 in Tabriz, Bushehr, Isfahan, Sanandaj and Urmia stations, respectively based on the B2 scenario. Although no significant trend was observed in most of the climatic variables under A2 and B2 scenarios over the time period of 2020–2049, the ETo significantly increased during this period. Hence it could be concluded that ETo is a better indicator for describing the future climate change, compared to other climatic variables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]