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Aim: Previous analyses of remotely sensed data detected the multimodality of the tree‐cover distribution of the boreal forest, and identified areas with potentially alternative tree‐cover states. This paper aims at investigating the causes of multimodality and multistability of the boreal forest, their influence on the asymmetric tree species distribution between Eurasia and North America, and whether multistability could be associated with recent greening trends in leaf area index (LAI) and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Location: Eurasian and North American boreal forests. Time period: 2000–2010. Major taxa studied: Boreal forest plant functional types. Methods: We employ a conceptual model based on tree species competition to simulate the sensitivity of tree cover to stochastic disturbances and to changes in environmental factors. We include different plant functional types based on survival adaptations, and force the model with remotely sensed environmental data. We analyse the model as a dynamical system. We use metrics from statistics and information theory to compare the detection of alternative tree‐cover states and greening trends in LAI and NDVI. Results: We find that multimodality and multistability can emerge through competition between different plant functional types. Additionally, our model is able to reproduce the asymmetry in tree species distribution between Eurasia and North America. Moreover, changes in permafrost distribution can be associated with phenomenological bifurcation points of the model. Finally, we find that the detection of multistable areas is not affected by recent vegetation trends, whereas shifts between alternative states could have affected the greening trends. Main conclusions: Tree‐cover multistability in the boreal region can emerge through competition between species subject to periodic disturbances. Changes in permafrost thaw and distribution could be responsible for the asymmetry in tree species distribution between North America and Eurasia. Climate change and permafrost degradation could cause shifts in tree‐cover states and dominant species. Recent vegetation greening trends in multistable areas could have been affected by shifts between alternative states. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous analysis of the vegetation cover from remote sensing revealed the existence of three alternative modes in the frequency distribution of boreal tree cover: a sparsely vegetated treeless state, an open woodland state, and a forest state. Identifying which are the regions subject to multimodality, and assessing which are the main factors underlying their existence, is important to project future change of natural vegetation cover and its effect on climate. We study the link between the tree-cover fraction distribution and eight globally observed environmental factors: mean annual rainfall, mean minimum temperature, growing degree days above 0 °C, permafrost distribution, mean spring soil moisture, wildfire occurrence frequency, soil texture, and mean thawing depth. Through the use of generalised additive models, conditional histograms, and phase-space analysis, we find that environmental conditions exert a strong control over the tree-cover distribution, uniquely determining its state among the three dominant modes in ~95% of the cases. Additionally, we find that the link between individual environmental variables and tree cover is different within the four boreal regions considered here, namely eastern North Eurasia, western North Eurasia, eastern North America, and western North America. Furthermore, using a classification based on rainfall, minimum temperatures, permafrost distribution, soil moisture, wildfire frequency, and soil texture, we show the location of areas with potentially alternative treecover states under the same environmental conditions in the boreal region. These areas, although encompassing a minor fraction of the boreal area (~5 %), correspond to possible transition zones with a reduced resilience to disturbances. Hence, they are of interest for a more detailed analysis of land-atmosphere interactions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous analysis of the vegetation cover from remote sensing revealed the existence of three alternative modes in the frequency distribution of boreal tree cover: a sparsely vegetated treeless state, an open woodland state, and a forest state. Identifying which are the regions subject to multimodality, and assessing which are the main factors underlying their existence, is important to project future change of natural vegetation cover and its effect on climate. We study the impact on the tree cover fraction distribution (TCF) of eight globally-observed environmental factors: mean annual rainfall (MAR), mean minimum temperature (MTmin), growing degree days above 0°C (GDD0), permafrost distribution (PZI), mean spring soil moisture (MSSM), wildfire occurrence frequency (FF), soil texture (ST), and mean thawing depth (MTD). Through the use of generalised additive models, conditional histograms, and phase-space analysis, we find that environmental conditions exert a strong control over the tree cover distribution, generally uniquely determining its state. Additionally, we find that the relationship between tree cover and environment is different within the four boreal regions here considered, namely Eastern North Eurasia, Western North Eurasia, Eastern North America, and Western North America. Furthermore, using a classification based on MAR, MTmin, MSSM, PZI, FF, and ST, we show the location of areas with potentially alternative tree cover states under the same environmental conditions in the boreal region. These areas, although encompassing a minor fraction of the boreal area (~5%), are of interest for a more detailed analysis of land-atmosphere interactions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]