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Glacier-bed characteristics that are poorly known and modeled are important in projected sea-level rise from ice-sheet changes under strong warming, especially in the Thwaites Glacier drainage of West Antarctica. Ocean warming may induce ice-shelf thinning or loss, or thinning of ice in estuarine zones, reducing backstress on grounded ice. Models indicate that, in response, more-nearly-plastic beds favor faster ice loss by causing larger flow acceleration, but more-nearly-viscous beds favor localized near-coastal thinning that could speed grounding-zone retreat into interior basins where marine-ice-sheet instability or cliff instability could develop and cause very rapid ice loss. Interpretation of available data indicates that the bed is spatially mosaicked, with both viscous and plastic regions. Flow against bedrock topography removes plastic lubricating tills, exposing bedrock that is eroded on up-glacier sides of obstacles to form moats with exposed bedrock tails extending downglacier adjacent to lee-side soft-till bedforms. Flow against topography also generates high-ice-pressure zones that prevent inflow of lubricating water over distances that scale with the obstacle size. Extending existing observations to sufficiently large regions, and developing models assimilating such data at the appropriate scale, present large, important research challenges that must be met to reliably project future forced sea-level rise. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Basal channels, which form where buoyant plumes of ocean water and meltwater carve troughs upwards into ice-shelf bases, are widespread on Antarctic ice shelves. The formation of these features modulates ice-shelf basal melt by influencing the flow of buoyant plumes, and influences structural stability through concentration of strain and interactions with fractures. Because of these effects, and because basal channels can change rapidly, on timescales similar to those of ice-shelf evolution, constraining the impacts of basal channels on ice shelves is necessary for predicting future ice-shelf destabilization and retreat. We suggest that future research priorities should include constraining patterns and rates of basal channel change, determining mechanisms and detailed patterns of basal melt, and quantifying the influence that channel-related fractures have on ice-shelf stability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The first records of Greenland Vikings date to 985 CE. Archaeological evidence yields insight into how Vikings lived, yet drivers of their disappearance in the 15th century remain enigmatic. Research suggests a combination of environmental and socioeconomic factors, and the climatic shift from the Medieval Warm Period (~900 to 1250 CE) to the Little Ice Age (~1250 to 1900 CE) may have forced them to abandon Greenland. Glacial geomorphology and paleoclimate research suggest that the Southern Greenland Ice Sheet readvanced during Viking occupation, peaking in the Little Ice Age. Counterintuitively, the readvance caused sea-level rise near the ice margin due to increased gravitational attraction toward the ice sheet and crustal subsidence. We estimate ice growth in Southwestern Greenland using geomorphological indicators and lake core data from previous literature. We calculate the effect of ice growth on regional sea level by applying our ice history to a geophysical model of sea level with a resolution of ~1 km across Southwestern Greenland and compare the results to archaeological evidence. The results indicate that sea level rose up to ~3.3moutside the glaciation zone during Viking settlement, producing shoreline retreat of hundreds of meters. Sea-level rise was progressive and encompassed the entire Eastern Settlement. Moreover, pervasive flooding would have forced abandonment of many coastal sites. These processes likely contributed to the suite of vulnerabilities that led to Viking abandonment of Greenland. Sea-level change thus represents an integral, missing element of the Viking story. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atmospheric inversions provide estimates of carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes between the surface and atmosphere based on atmospheric CO2 concentration observations. The number of CO2 observations is projected to increase severalfold in the next decades from expanding in situ networks and next‐generation CO2‐observing satellites, providing both an opportunity and a challenge for inversions. This study introduces the TRACE Regional Atmosphere–Carbon Ensemble (TRACE) system, which employ an ensemble‐based simultaneous state and parameter estimation (ESSPE) approach to enable the assimilation of large volumes of observations for constraining CO2 flux parameters. TRACE uses an online full‐physics mesoscale atmospheric model and assimilates observations serially in a coupled atmosphere–carbon ensemble Kalman filter. The data assimilation system was tested in a series of observing system simulation experiments using in situ observations for a regional domain over North America in summer. Under ideal conditions with known prior flux parameter error covariances, TRACE reduced the error in domain‐integrated monthly CO2 fluxes by about 97% relative to the prior flux errors. In a more realistic scenario with unknown prior flux error statistics, the corresponding relative error reductions ranged from 80.6% to 88.5% depending on the specification of prior flux parameter error correlations. For regionally integrated fluxes on a spatial scale of 106 km2, the sum of absolute errors was reduced by 34.5%–50.9% relative to the prior flux errors. Moreover, TRACE produced posterior uncertainty estimates that were consistent with the true errors. These initial experiments show that the ESSPE approach in TRACE provides a promising method for advancing CO2 inversion techniques. Plain Language Summary: To gain a better understanding of the main drivers behind atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) variations and trends, it is essential to accurately quantify CO2 exchanges—also known as fluxes—between the atmosphere and other components of the Earth system. It is generally not possible to directly measure surface CO2 fluxes at regional scales; however, fluxes can be inferred from a network of atmospheric CO2 concentration observations combined with atmospheric modeling and inversion methods, which seek to find the most likely fluxes given prior knowledge and observational evidence. This paper presents a new regional inversion framework called TRACE Regional Atmosphere–Carbon Ensemble (TRACE) for deriving CO2 fluxes at high resolution in space and time. One of the major innovations in TRACE is the ensemble‐based dual state and parameter estimation approach, which makes it computationally feasible to ingest large volumes of observations into the system. A series of experiments were carried out in a domain over North America to test the new framework in a controlled setting. In the experiments, we used synthetic tower observations of atmospheric CO2 concentrations to constrain parameters controlling terrestrial biogenic and oceanic CO2 fluxes. The results show that TRACE is capable of accurately estimating both the magnitude and spatial pattern of regional CO2 fluxes. Key Points: An ensemble‐based simultaneous state and parameter estimation approach is introduced for regional CO2 flux inversionsThe new dual‐state TRACE Regional Atmosphere–Carbon Ensemble (TRACE) framework provides a flexible platform for conducting coupled atmosphere–carbon data assimilationControlled experiments show that TRACE is effective at constraining regional CO2 fluxes using in situ CO2 concentration observations [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Glacier-bed characteristics that are poorly known and modeled are important in projected sea-level rise from ice-sheet changes under strong warming, especially in the Thwaites Glacier drainage of West Antarctica. Ocean warming may induce ice-shelf thinning or loss, or thinning of ice in estuarine zones, reducing backstress on grounded ice. Models indicate that, in response, more-nearly-plastic beds favor faster ice loss by causing larger flow acceleration, but more-nearly-viscous beds favor localized near-coastal thinning that could speed grounding-zone retreat into interior basins where marine-ice-sheet instability or cliff instability could develop and cause very rapid ice loss. Interpretation of available data indicates that the bed is spatially mosaicked, with both viscous and plastic regions. Flow against bedrock topography removes plastic lubricating tills, exposing bedrock that is eroded on up-glacier sides of obstacles to form moats with exposed bedrock tails extending downglacier adjacent to lee-side soft-till bedforms. Flow against topography also generates high-ice-pressure zones that prevent inflow of lubricating water over distances that scale with the obstacle size. Extending existing observations to sufficiently large regions, and developing models assimilating such data at the appropriate scale, present large, important research challenges that must be met to reliably project future forced sea-level rise. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rapid retreat of the Larsen A and B ice shelves has provided important clues about the ice shelf destabilization processes. The Larsen C Ice Shelf, the largest remaining ice shelf on the Antarctic Peninsula, may also be vulnerable to future collapse in a warming climate. Here, we utilize multisource satellite images collected over 1963–2020 to derive multidecadal time series of ice front, flow velocities, and critical rift features over Larsen C, with the aim of understanding the controls on its retreat. We complement these observations with modeling experiments using the Ice‐sheet and Sea‐level System Model to examine how front geometry conditions and mechanical weakening due to rifts affect ice shelf dynamics. Over the past six decades, Larsen C lost over 20% of its area, dominated by rift‐induced tabular iceberg calving. The Bawden Ice Rise and Gipps Ice Rise are critical areas for rift formation, through their impact on the longitudinal deviatoric stress field. Mechanical weakening around Gipps Ice Rise is found to be an important control on localized flow acceleration and the propagation of two rifts that caused a major calving event in 2017. Capturing the time‐varying effects of rifts on ice rigidity in ice shelf models is essential for making realistic predictions of ice shelf flow dynamics and instability. In the context of the Larsen A and Larsen B collapses, we infer a chronology of destabilization processes for embayment‐confined ice shelves, which provides a useful framework for understanding the historical and future destabilization of Antarctic ice shelves. Plain Language Summary: The Antarctic Ice Sheet is the largest source of uncertainty in projecting future sea‐level rise. This is due to our limited understanding of drivers and mechanisms triggering tipping points in ice‐sheet instability, and knowledge gaps regarding the retreat and disintegration of ice shelves. Understanding processes leading to ice shelf destabilization is critical to improving estimates of future Antarctic mass loss because of their important role in stabilizing ice flow. We studied Larsen C Ice Shelf changes using satellite data collected over 1963–2020, and conducted modeling experiments to elucidate the observed linkages between front retreat, flow acceleration, and rifts. We find the development of rifts near ice rises to be an important control on Larsen C front calving and flow acceleration in the past six decades. Rifts can affect each other by causing mechanical weakening and modifying stress fields. To predict future dynamical changes, it is necessary to account for this feedback and capture how ice rigidity changes over time in response to rift growth. If Larsen C retreats to the extent that the compressive arch ceases to exist, it will resemble the precollapsed Larsen B ice shelf, producing widespread flow accelerations in response to the backstress loss from ice rises. Key Points: Multidecadal satellite images and ice shelf modeling experiments were used to examine dynamic changes of Larsen C during 1963–2020Rift development near ice rises is an important control on ice shelf retreat and flow acceleration before the compressive arch is reachedCapturing the time‐varying effects of rifts on ice rigidity is needed to make realistic simulations of future ice shelf change [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Paris Agreement aims to limit global mean warming in the twenty-first century to less than 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels, and to promote further efforts to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius1. The amount of greenhouse gas emissions in coming decades will be consequential for global mean sea level (GMSL) on century and longer timescales through a combination of ocean thermal expansion and loss of land ice2. The Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) is Earth’s largest land ice reservoir (equivalent to 57.9 metres of GMSL)3, and its ice loss is accelerating4. Extensive regions of the AIS are grounded below sea level and susceptible to dynamical instabilities5–8 that are capable of producing very rapid retreat8. Yet the potential for the implementation of the Paris Agreement temperature targets to slow or stop the onset of these instabilities has not been directly tested with physics-based models. Here we use an observationally calibrated ice sheet–shelf model to show that with global warming limited to 2 degrees Celsius or less, Antarctic ice loss will continue at a pace similar to today’s throughout the twenty-first century. However, scenarios more consistent with current policies (allowing 3 degrees Celsius of warming) give an abrupt jump in the pace of Antarctic ice loss after around 2060, contributing about 0.5 centimetres GMSL rise per year by 2100—an order of magnitude faster than today4. More fossil-fuel-intensive scenarios9 result in even greater acceleration. Ice-sheet retreat initiated by the thinning and loss of buttressing ice shelves continues for centuries, regardless of bedrock and sea-level feedback mechanisms10–12 or geoengineered carbon dioxide reduction. These results demonstrate the possibility that rapid and unstoppable sea-level rise from Antarctica will be triggered if Paris Agreement targets are exceeded.An observationally calibrated ice sheet–shelf model suggests that global warming of 3 °C will trigger rapid Antarctic ice loss, contributing about 0.5 cm per year of sea-level rise by 2100. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The grounding zone of Whillans Ice Stream, West Antarctica, exhibits an abrupt transition in basal properties from the grounded ice to the ocean cavity over distances of less than 0.5–1 km. Active-source seismic methods reveal the downglacier-most grounded portion of the ice stream is underlain by a relatively stiff substrate (relatively high shear wave velocities of 1100±430 ms-1) compared to the deformable till found elsewhere beneath the ice stream. Changes in basal reflectivity in our study area cannot be explained by the stage of the tide. Several kilometres upstream of the grounding zone, layers of subglacial water are detected, as are regions that appear to be water layers but are less than the thickness resolvable by our technique. The presence of stiff subglacial sediment and thin water layers upstream of the grounding zone supports previous studies that have proposed the dewatering of sediment within the grounding zone and the trapping of subglacial water upstream of the ocean cavity. The setting enables calibration of our methodology using returns from the floating ice shelf. This allows a comparison of different techniques used to estimate the sizes of the seismic sources, a constraint essential for the accurate recovery of subglacial properties. We find a strong correlation (coefficient of determination=0.46) between our calibrated method and a commonly used multiple-bounce method, but our results also highlight the incomplete knowledge of other factors affecting the amplitude of seismic sources and reflections in the cryosphere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We describe elongate, wet, subglacial bedforms in the shear margins of the NE Greenland Ice Stream and place some constraints on their formation. Lateral shear margin moraines have been observed across the previously glaciated landscape, but little is known about the ice-flow conditions necessary to form these bedforms. Here we describe in situ sediment bedforms under the NE Greenland Ice Stream shear margins that are observed in active-source seismic and ground-penetrating radar surveys. We find bedforms in the shear margins that are ~500 m wide, ~50 m tall, and elongated nearly parallel to ice-flow, including what we believe to be the first subglacial observation of a shear margin moraine. Acoustic impedance analysis of the bedforms shows that they are composed of unconsolidated, deformable, water-saturated till. We use these geophysical observations to place constraints on the possible formation mechanism of these subglacial features. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent seismic measurements from upper Thwaites Glacier indicate that the bed-type variability is closely related to the along-flow basal topography. In high-relief subglacial highlands, stoss sides of topographic highs have a relatively higher acoustic impedance ('hard' bed) with lower acoustic impedance ('soft' till) on lee sides. This pattern is similar to observations of many deglaciated terrains. Subglacial hydraulic-potential gradient and its divergence show a tendency for water to diverge over the stoss sides and converge into the lee sides. Convergence favors a thicker or more widespread water system, which can more efficiently decouple ice from the underlying till. Under such circumstances, till deformation does occur but, fluxes are relatively small. Till carried from the lee sides onto stoss sides of downstream bumps should couple to the ice more efficiently, increasing the ability for transport by till deformation. In turn, this suggests that steady-state till transport can be achieved if the stoss-side till layer is thin or discontinuous. In addition, the large basal shear stress generated in the highlands seems too high for a bed lubricated by a continuous although thin deforming till, suggesting till discontinuity, which would allow debris-laden ice to erode bedrock on stoss sides, supplying additional till for transport. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We describe elongate, wet, subglacial bedforms in the shear margins of the NE Greenland Ice Stream and place some constraints on their formation. Lateral shear margin moraines have been observed across the previously glaciated landscape, but little is known about the ice-flow conditions necessary to form these bedforms. Here we describe in situ sediment bedforms under the NE Greenland Ice Stream shear margins that are observed in active-source seismic and ground-penetrating radar surveys. We find bedforms in the shear margins that are ~500 m wide, ~50 m tall, and elongated nearly parallel to ice-flow, including what we believe to be the first subglacial observation of a shear margin moraine. Acoustic impedance analysis of the bedforms shows that they are composed of unconsolidated, deformable, water-saturated till. We use these geophysical observations to place constraints on the possible formation mechanism of these subglacial features. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent seismic measurements from upper Thwaites Glacier indicate that the bed-type variability is closely related to the along-flow basal topography. In high-relief subglacial highlands, stoss sides of topographic highs have a relatively higher acoustic impedance ('hard' bed) with lower acoustic impedance ('soft' till) on lee sides. This pattern is similar to observations of many deglaciated terrains. Subglacial hydraulic-potential gradient and its divergence show a tendency for water to diverge over the stoss sides and converge into the lee sides. Convergence favors a thicker or more widespread water system, which can more efficiently decouple ice from the underlying till. Under such circumstances, till deformation does occur but, fluxes are relatively small. Till carried from the lee sides onto stoss sides of downstream bumps should couple to the ice more efficiently, increasing the ability for transport by till deformation. In turn, this suggests that steady-state till transport can be achieved if the stoss-side till layer is thin or discontinuous. In addition, the large basal shear stress generated in the highlands seems too high for a bed lubricated by a continuous although thin deforming till, suggesting till discontinuity, which would allow debris-laden ice to erode bedrock on stoss sides, supplying additional till for transport. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Inference of CO2 surface fluxes using atmospheric CO2 observations in atmospheric inversions depends critically on accurate representation of atmospheric transport. Here we characterize regional‐scale CO2 transport uncertainties due to uncertainties in meteorological fields using a mesoscale atmospheric model and an ensemble of simulations with flow‐dependent transport errors. During a 1‐month summer period over North America, transport uncertainties yield an ensemble spread in instantaneous CO2 at 100 m above ground level comparable to the CO2 uncertainties resulting from 48% relative uncertainty in 3‐hourly natural CO2 fluxes. Temporal averaging reduces transport uncertainties but increases the influence of CO2 uncertainties from the lateral boundaries. The influence of CO2 background uncertainties is especially large for column‐averaged CO2. These results suggest that transport errors and CO2 background errors limit regional atmospheric inversions at two distinct timescales and that the error characteristics of transport and background errors should guide the design of regional inversion systems. Plain Language Summary: Accurate estimates of regional‐scale CO2 surface fluxes are essential to improve our understanding of the carbon cycle and to verify human CO2 emission inventories. CO2 surface fluxes can be inferred from atmospheric CO2 measurements through inversion methods, which use atmospheric transport models to relate CO2 concentration to fluxes. However, previous studies have shown that inversion results can be sensitive to errors in the simulated atmospheric transport. To better understand how to account for such transport errors, we characterize the uncertainties in simulated CO2 concentration due to uncertainties in atmospheric transport by running an ensemble of perturbed transport simulations in a regional atmospheric model. Our results show that CO2 uncertainties due to transport uncertainties are about half the magnitude as uncertainties due to erroneous CO2 surface fluxes while displaying similar spatial and temporal patterns. Transport uncertainties are reduced when CO2 is time averaged, but at the same time the influence of uncertainties in the CO2 background concentration is increased at longer timescales. Thus, the flux signals in regional inversions are degraded by transport errors and CO2 background errors at different timescales, and it is imperative to properly account for these errors to obtain reliable regional‐scale CO2 flux estimates. Key Points: We quantify CO2 transport uncertainties due to uncertainties in meteorological fields at the regional scale and submonthly timescalesAtmospheric CO2 estimates that are strongly influenced by CO2 surface fluxes tend to also have large transport uncertaintiesThe signal‐to‐noise ratio in in situ CO2 is limited by transport errors at subweekly timescales and CO2 background errors at longer scales [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rapidly retreating thick ice fronts can generate large amounts of mélange (floating ice debris), which may affect episodes of rapid retreat of Antarctic marine ice. In modern Greenland fjords, mélange provides substantial back pressure on calving ice faces, which slows ice front calving rates. On the much larger scales of West Antarctica, it is unknown if mélange could clog seaways and provide enough back pressure to act as a negative feedback slowing retreat. Here we describe a new mélange model, using a continuum-mechanical formulation that is computationally feasible for long-term continental Antarctic applications. It is tested in an idealized rectangular channel and calibrated very basically using observed modern conditions in Jakobshavn fjord, West Greenland. The model is then applied to drastic retreat of Antarctic ice in response to warm mid-Pliocene climate. With mélange parameter values that yield reasonable modern Jakobshavn results, Antarctic marine ice still retreats drastically in the Pliocene simulations, with little slowdown despite the huge amounts of mélange generated. This holds both for the rapid early collapse of West Antarctica and for later retreat into major East Antarctic basins. If parameter values are changed to make the mélange much more resistive to flow, far outside the range for reasonable Jakobshavn results, West Antarctica still collapses and retreat is slowed or prevented only in a few East Antarctic basins. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present a high‐resolution shear wave velocity model of Greenland's lithosphere from regional and teleseismic Rayleigh waves recorded by the Greenland Ice Sheet Monitoring Network supplemented with observations from several temporary seismic deployments. To construct Rayleigh wave group velocity maps, we integrated signals from regional and teleseismic earthquakes with several years of ambient seismic noise and used the dispersion to constrain crustal and upper‐mantle seismic shear wave velocity structure. Specifically, we used a Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique to estimate 3‐D shear wave velocities beneath Greenland to a depth of 200 km. Our model reveals four prominent anomalies: a deep high‐velocity feature extending from southwestern to northwestern Greenland that may be the signature of a thick cratonic keel, a corridor of relatively low upper‐mantle velocity across central Greenland that could be associated with lithospheric modification from the passage of the Iceland plume beneath Greenland or interpreted as a tectonic boundary between cratonic blocks, an upper‐crustal southwest‐northeast trending boundary separating Greenland into two regions of contrasting tectonic and crustal properties, and a midcrustal low‐velocity anomaly beneath northeastern Greenland. The nature of this midcrustal anomaly is of particular interest given that it underlies the onset of the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream and raises interesting questions regarding how deeper processes may impact the ice stream dynamics and the evolution of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Key Points: We present a high‐resolution shear wave velocity model of Greenland's lithosphereOur model provides new constraints on the location of the Iceland plume track beneath GreenlandWe find evidence for a midcrustal low‐velocity anomaly beneath the onset of the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rapidly retreating thick ice fronts can generate large amounts of mélange (floating ice debris), which may affect episodes of rapid retreat of Antarctic marine ice. In modern Greenland fjords, mélange provides substantial back pressure on calving ice faces, which slows ice-front velocities and calving rates. On the much larger scales of West Antarctica, it is unknown if mélange could clog seaways and provide enough back pressure to act as a negative feedback slowing retreat. Here we describe a new mélange model, using a continuum mechanical formulation that is computationally feasible for long-term continental Antarctic applications. It is tested in an idealized rectangular channel, and calibrated very basically using observed modern conditions in Jakobshavn fjord, West Greenland. The model is then applied to drastic retreat of Antarctic ice in response to warm mid-Pliocene climate. With mélange parameter values that yield reasonable modern Jakobshavn results, Antarctic marine ice still retreats drastically in the Pliocene simulations, with little slowdown despite the huge amounts of mélange generated. This holds both for the rapid early collapse of West Antarctica, and later retreat into major East Antarctic basins. If parameter values are changed to make the mélange much more resistive to flow, far outside the range for reasonable Jakobshavn results, West Antarctica still collapses and retreat is slowed or prevented only in a few East Antarctic basins. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Observations at the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) Divide site show that near-surface snow is strongly altered by weather-related processes such as strong winds and temperature fluctuations, producing features that are recognizable in the deep ice core. Prominent "glazed" surface crusts develop frequently at the site during summer seasons. Surface, snow pit, and ice core observations made in this study during summer field seasons from 2008-2009 to 2012-2013, supplemented by automated weather station (AWS) data with short- and longwave radiation sensors, revealed that such crusts formed during relatively low-wind, low-humidity, clear-sky periods with intense daytime sunshine. After formation, such glazed surfaces typically developed cracks in a polygonal pattern likely from thermal contraction at night. Cracking was commonest when several clear days occurred in succession and was generally followed by surface hoar growth; vapor escaping through the cracks during sunny days may have contributed to the high humidity that favored nighttime formation of surface hoar. Temperature and radiation observations show that daytime solar heating often warmed the near-surface snow above the air temperature, contributing to upward mass transfer, favoring crust formation from below, and then surface hoar formation. A simple surface energy calculation supports this observation. Subsequent examination of the WDC06A deep ice core revealed that crusts are preserved through the bubbly ice, and some occur in snow accumulated during winters, although not as commonly as in summertime deposits. Although no one has been on site to observe crust formation during winter, it may be favored by greater wintertime wind packing from stronger peak winds, high temperatures and steep temperature gradients from rapid midwinter warmings reaching as high as -15 °C, and perhaps longer intervals of surface stability. Time variations in crust occurrence in the core may provide paleoclimatic information, although additional studies are required. Discontinuity and cracking of crusts likely explain why crusts do not produce significant anomalies in other paleoclimatic records. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The flood hazard in New York City depends on both storm surges and rising sea levels. We combine modeled storm surges with probabilistic sea-level rise projections to assess future coastal inundation in New York City from the preindustrial era through 2300 CE. The storm surges are derived from large sets of synthetic tropical cyclones, downscaled from RCP8.5 simulations from three CMIP5 models. The sea-level rise projections account for potential partial collapse of the Antarctic ice sheet in assessing future coastal inundation. CMIP5 models indicate that there will be minimal change in storm-surge heights from 2010 to 2100 or 2300, because the predicted strengthening of the strongest storms will be compensated by storm tracks moving offshore at the latitude of New York City. However, projected sea-level rise causes overall flood heights associated with tropical cyclones in New York City in coming centuries to increase greatly compared with preindustrial or modern flood heights. For the various sea-level rise scenarios we consider, the 1-in-500-y flood event increases from 3.4 m above mean tidal level during 1970-2005 to 4.0-5.1 m above mean tidal level by 2080-2100 and ranges from 5.0-15.4 m above mean tidal level by 2280-2300. Further, we find that the return period of a 2.25-m flood has decreased from ~500 y before 1800 to ~25 y during 1970-2005 and further decreases to ~5 y by 2030-2045 in 95% of our simulations. The 2.25-m flood height is permanently exceeded by 2280-2300 for scenarios that include Antarctica's potential partial collapse. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The most recent glacial to interglacial transition constitutes a remarkable natural experiment for learning how Earth’s climate responds to various forcings, including a rise in atmospheric CO2. This transition has left a direct thermal remnant in the polar ice sheets, where the exceptional purity and continual accumulation of ice permit analyses not possible in other settings. For Antarctica, the deglacial warming has previously been constrained only by the water isotopic composition in ice cores, without an absolute thermometric assessment of the isotopes’ sensitivity to temperature. To overcome this limitation, we measured temperatures in a deep borehole and analyzed them together with ice-core data to reconstruct the surface temperature history of West Antarctica. The deglacial warming was 11.3±1.8°C, approximately two to three times the global average, in agreement with theoretical expectations for Antarctic amplification of planetary temperature changes. Consistent with evidence from glacier retreat in Southern Hemisphere mountain ranges, the Antarctic warming was mostly completed by 15 kyBP, several millennia earlier than in the Northern Hemisphere. These results constrain the role of variable oceanic heat transport between hemispheres during deglaciation and quantitatively bound the direct influence of global climate forcings on Antarctic temperature. Although climate models perform well on average in this context, some recent syntheses of deglacial climate history have underestimated Antarctic warming and the models with lowest sensitivity can be discounted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) contains the equivalent of 7.4 metres of global sea-level rise. Its stability in our warming climate is therefore a pressing concern. However, the sparse proxy evidence of the palaeo-stability of the GIS means that its history is controversial (compare refs 2 and 3 to ref. 4). Here we show that Greenland was deglaciated for extended periods during the Pleistocene epoch (from 2.6 million years ago to 11,700 years ago), based on new measurements of cosmic-ray-produced beryllium and aluminium isotopes (10Be and 26Al) in a bedrock core from beneath an ice core near the GIS summit. Models indicate that when this bedrock site is ice-free, any remaining ice is concentrated in the eastern Greenland highlands and the GIS is reduced to less than ten per cent of its current volume. Our results narrow the spectrum of possible GIS histories: the longest period of stability of the present ice sheet that is consistent with the measurements is 1.1 million years, assuming that this was preceded by more than 280,000 years of ice-free conditions. Other scenarios, in which Greenland was ice-free during any or all Pleistocene interglacials, may be more realistic. Our observations are incompatible with most existing model simulations that present a continuously existing Pleistocene GIS. Future simulations of the GIS should take into account that Greenland was nearly ice-free for extended periods under Pleistocene climate forcing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The significance and robustness of the link between Arctic sea ice loss and changes in midlatitude weather patterns is investigated through a series of model simulations from the Community Atmosphere Model, version 5.3, with systematically perturbed sea ice cover in the Arctic. Using a large ensemble of 10 sea ice scenarios and 550 simulations, it is found that prescribed Arctic sea ice anomalies produce statistically significant changes for certain metrics of the midlatitude circulation but not for others. Furthermore, the significant midlatitude circulation changes do not scale linearly with the sea ice anomalies and are not present in all scenarios, indicating that the remote atmospheric response to reduced Arctic sea ice can be statistically significant under certain conditions but is generally nonrobust. Shifts in the Northern Hemisphere polar jet stream and changes in the meridional extent of upper-level large-scale waves due to the sea ice perturbations are generally small and not clearly distinguished from intrinsic variability. Reduced Arctic sea ice may favor a circulation pattern that resembles the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation and may increase the risk of cold outbreaks in eastern Asia by almost 50%, but this response is found in only half of the scenarios with negative sea ice anomalies. In eastern North America the frequency of extreme cold events decreases almost linearly with decreasing sea ice cover. This study's finding of frequent significant anomalies without a robust linear response suggests interactions between variability and persistence in the coupled system, which may contribute to the lack of convergence among studies of Arctic influences on midlatitude circulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ocean-ice interactions have exerted primary control on the Antarctic Ice Sheet and parts of the Greenland Ice Sheet, and will continue to do so in the near future, especially through melting of ice shelves and calving cliffs. Retreat in response to increasing marine melting typically exhibits threshold behavior, with little change for forcing below the threshold but a rapid, possibly delayed shift to a reduced state once the threshold is exceeded. For Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica, the threshold may already have been exceeded, although rapid change may be delayed by centuries, and the reduced state will likely involve loss of most of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, causing >3 m of sea-level rise. Because of shortcomings in physical understanding and available data, uncertainty persists about this threshold and the subsequent rate of change. Although sea-level histories and physical understanding allow the possibility that ice-sheet response could be quite fast, no strong constraints are yet available on the worst-case scenario. Recent work also suggests that the Greenland and East Antarctic Ice Sheets share some of the same vulnerabilities to shrinkage from marine influence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyze the internal stratigraphy in radio-echo sounding data of the northeast Greenland ice stream to infer past and present ice dynamics. In the upper reaches of the ice stream, we propose that shear-margin steady-state folds in internal reflecting horizons (IRHs) form due to the influence of ice flow over spatially varying basal lubrication. IRHs are generally lower in the ice stream than outside, likely because of greater basal melting in the ice stream from enhanced geothermal flux and heat of sliding. Strain-rate modeling of IRHs deposited during the Holocene indicates no recent major changes in ice-stream vigor or extent in this region. Downstream of our survey, IRHs are disrupted as the ice flows into a prominent overdeepening. When combined with additional data from other studies, these data suggest that upstream portions of the ice stream are controlled by variations in basal lubrication whereas downstream portions are confined by basal topography. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Thermodynamic flowline and plume models for the ice shelf-ocean system simplify the ice and ocean dynamics sufficiently to allow extensive exploration of parameters affecting ice-sheet stability while including key physical processes. Comparison between geophysically and laboratory-based treatments of ice-ocean interface thermodynamics shows reasonable agreement between calculated melt rates, except where steep basal slopes and relatively high ocean temperatures are present. Results are especially sensitive to the poorly known drag coefficient, highlighting the need for additional field experiments to constrain its value. These experiments also suggest that if the ice-ocean interface near the grounding line is steeper than some threshold, further steepening of the slope may drive higher entrainment that limits buoyancy, slowing the plume and reducing melting; if confirmed, this will provide a stabilizing feedback on ice sheets under some circumstances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The cause of warming in the Southern Hemisphere during the most recent deglaciation remains a matter of debate. Hypotheses for a Northern Hemisphere trigger, through oceanic redistributions of heat, are based in part on the abrupt onset of warming seen in East Antarctic ice cores and dated to 18,000 years ago, which is several thousand years after high-latitude Northern Hemisphere summer insolation intensity began increasing from its minimum, approximately 24,000 years ago. An alternative explanation is that local solar insolation changes cause the Southern Hemisphere to warm independently. Here we present results from a new, annually resolved ice-core record from West Antarctica that reconciles these two views. The records show that 18,000 years ago snow accumulation in West Antarctica began increasing, coincident with increasing carbon dioxide concentrations, warming in East Antarctica and cooling in the Northern Hemisphere associated with an abrupt decrease in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. However, significant warming in West Antarctica began at least 2,000 years earlier. Circum-Antarctic sea-ice decline, driven by increasing local insolation, is the likely cause of this warming. The marine-influenced West Antarctic records suggest a more active role for the Southern Ocean in the onset of deglaciation than is inferred from ice cores in the East Antarctic interior, which are largely isolated from sea-ice changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pine Island Glacier (PIG), West Antarctica, has been experiencing acceleration in its flow speed and mass loss for nearly two decades, driven in part by an increase in the delivery of relatively warm Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW). However, at present, the configuration of the sub-ice-shelf cavity and bed conditions beneath the PIG ice shelf that dictate such oceanic influences remain poorly understood. Here, we use aerogravity data and ocean bottom depths measured by an autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) to model the bathymetry and sediment layer thickness beneath the PIG ice shelf. Results reveal that the deep basins, previously found by AUVon both landward and seaward sides of a submarine ridge, extend substantially to the north and south. The water column thickness of the basins reaches 400-550m on the landward side of the ridge and 500-600m on the seaward side. The sediment layer covers the whole expanse of the seabed beneath the ice shelf, and the thickness is in the range ~200-1000 m. The thinnest sediments (<200 m) are found on the seaward slope of the submarine ridge, suggesting that erosion by advancing ice may have been concentrated in the lee of the topographic high. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The societal benefits of an educated citizenry may be lost if "customers" at tuition-driven universities demand less of what they pay for because they value a credential more than the education it represents. Insights from potential employers may help students see the value of education and demand their money's worth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The statistical distributions of cosmogenic nuclide measurements from moraine boulders contain previously unused information on moraine ages, and they help determine whether moraine degradation or inheritance is more important on individual moraines. Here, we present a method for extracting this information by fitting geomorphic process models to observed exposure ages from single moraines. We also apply this method to 94 10Be apparent exposure ages from 11 moraines reported in four published studies. Our models represent 10Be accumulation in boulders that are exhumed over time by slope processes (moraine degradation), and the delivery of boulders with preexisting 10Be inventories to moraines (inheritance). For now, we neglect boulder erosion and snow cover, which are likely second-order processes. Given a highly scattered data set, we establish which model yields the better fit to the data, and estimate the age of the moraine from the better model fit. The process represented by the better-fitting model is probably responsible for most of the scatter among the apparent ages. Our methods should help resolve controversies in exposure dating; we reexamine the conclusions from two published studies based on our model fits. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Gentoso, M. J., Evenson, E. B., Kodama, K. P., Iverson, N. R., Alley, R. B., Berti, C. & Kozlowski, A. 2012 (January): Exploring till bed kinematics using AMS magnetic fabrics and pebble fabrics: the Weedsport drumlin field, New York State, USA. Boreas, Vol. 41, pp. 31-41. 10.1111/j.1502-3885.2011.00221.x. ISSN 0300-9483. Thick, relatively homogeneous basal tills exposed in the drumlins and flutes of the Weedsport drumlin and flute field in New York State exhibit anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility (AMS) and pebble fabrics that are consistently oriented parallel to the streamlined bedforms. The pebble fabrics and AMS fabrics are concordant. In this study, six drumlins and five flutes were sampled. Thermally induced, incremental reduction of isothermal remanent magnetization indicates that AMS is caused by primarily elongate maghaemite grains. The orientations of principal axes of maximum susceptibility ( k1) are generally parallel to pebble long-axis orientations, and tend to plunge mildly up-glacier. Fabric directions are generally parallel to drumlin long-axis orientations, but deviate by 12°-23° from flute directions. Fabrics of the flutes are stronger and more unidirectional than those of the drumlins. These results support the use of AMS as a fast and objective method for characterizing fabrics in tills, and suggest hypotheses about basal processes linked to glacially streamlined landforms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]