1. A Markov regime-switching framework to forecast El Niño Southern Oscillation patterns.
- Author
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Cárdenas-Gallo, Iván, Akhavan-Tabatabaei, Raha, Sánchez-Silva, Mauricio, and Bastidas-Arteaga, Emilio
- Subjects
SOUTHERN oscillation ,WEATHER forecasting ,MARKOV processes ,OCEAN temperature ,DECISION making ,AUTOREGRESSIVE models - Abstract
The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an ocean-atmosphere phenomenon involving sustained sea surface temperature fluctuations in the Pacific Ocean, causing disruptions in the behavior of the ocean and atmosphere. We develop a Markov-switching autoregressive model to describe the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), a variable that explains ENSO, using two autoregressive processes to describe the time evolution of SOI, each of which associated with a specific phase of ENSO. The switching between these two models is governed by a discrete-time Markov chain, with time-varying transition probabilities. Then, we extend the model using sinusoidal functions to forecast future values of SOI. The results can be used as a decision-making tool in the process of risk mitigation against weather- and climate-related disasters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2016
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