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In recent years, there has been a growing interest in ensemble approaches for modelling the atmospheric transport of volcanic aerosol, ash, and lapilli (tephra). The development of such techniques enables the exploration of novel methods for incorporating real observations into tephra dispersal models. However, traditional data assimilation algorithms, including ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) methods, can yield suboptimal state estimates for positive-definite variables such as those related to volcanic aerosols and tephra deposits. This study proposes two new ensemble-based data assimilation techniques for semi-positive-definite variables with highly skewed uncertainty distributions, including aerosol concentrations and tephra deposit mass loading: the Gaussian with non-negative constraints (GNC) and gamma inverse-gamma (GIG) methods. The proposed methods are applied to reconstruct the tephra fallout deposit resulting from the 2015 Calbuco eruption using an ensemble of 256 runs performed with the FALL3D dispersal model. An assessment of the methodologies is conducted considering two independent datasets of deposit thickness measurements: an assimilation dataset and a validation dataset. Different evaluation metrics (e.g. RMSE, MBE, and SMAPE) are computed for the validation dataset, and the results are compared to two references: the ensemble prior mean and the EnKF analysis. Results show that the assimilation leads to a significant improvement over the first-guess results obtained from the simple ensemble forecast. The evidence from this study suggests that the GNC method was the most skilful approach and represents a promising alternative for assimilation of volcanic fallout data. The spatial distributions of the tephra fallout deposit thickness and volume according to the GNC analysis are in good agreement with estimations based on field measurements and isopach maps reported in previous studies. On the other hand, although it is an interesting approach, the GIG method failed to improve the EnKF analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, there has been a growing interest in ensemble approaches for modelling volcanic plumes. The development of such techniques enables the exploration of novel methods for incorporating real observations into tephra dispersal models. However, traditional data assimilation algorithms, including ensemble Kalman filter methods, can yield suboptimal state estimates for positive-definite variables such as volcanic aerosols and tephra deposits. This study proposes two new ensemble-based data assimilation techniques for semi-positive-definite variables with highly skewed uncertainty distributions, including aerosol concentrations and tephra deposit mass loading. The proposed methods are applied to reconstruct the tephra fallout deposit resulting from the 2015 Calbuco eruption using an ensemble of 256 runs performed with the FALL3D dispersal model. Two datasets of deposit thickness measurements are considered: an assimilation dataset including 161 observations, and a validation dataset for an independent assessment of the methods. Results show that the assimilation leads to a significant improvement over the first-guess results, obtained from the simple ensemble forecast. The spatial distribution of the tephra fallout deposit thickness and the ashfall volume according to the analyses are in good agreement with estimations based on field measurements and isopach maps reported in previous studies. Both assimilation methods show a similar performance in terms of evaluation metrics and spatial distribution of the deposit. Finally, the potential application of the methodologies for the improvement of ash-cloud forecasts produced for operational models is also discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Long‐lasting, hybrid eruptions can be of complex description and classification, especially when associated with multiple eruptive styles and multiple products. The 2021 Tajogaite eruption of La Palma, Canary Islands, was associated with a magma‐gas decoupled system that resulted in the simultaneous emission of lava flows and tephra plumes from various vents. Even though the tephra blanket (∼2 × 107 m3) represents only 7%–16% of the total erupted volume, it provides fundamental insights into the overall eruptive dynamics. Tephra was mostly dispersed NE‐SW due to a complex regional and local wind patterns and was subdivided into 3 units and 11 layers that well correlate at different distances from the vent and with both tremor data and lava emission rate. While plume height varied at the temporal scale of a few hours, the average mass eruption rate associated with the tephra blanket of the different units remained relatively constant (∼3–4 × 103 kg s−1). In contrast, the emission rate of lava largely increased after the first week and remained higher than the overall emission of tephra throughout the whole eruption (average value of ∼6 × 104 kg s−1). Based on a detailed characterization of the tephra blanket in combination with atmospheric wind, tremor, and lava emission trend, we demonstrate the need of (a) multidisciplinary strategies for the description of hybrid eruptions that account for both the duration of individual phases and the quantification of the mass of multiple products, and of (b) dedicated ash dispersal forecasting strategies that account for the frequent variations of eruptive and atmospheric conditions. Plain Language Summary: Volcanic eruptions are mostly subdivided into effusive and explosive when they are associated with the emission of lava flows or with the fragmentation of magma that results in the generation of widespread deposits (i.e., tephra). The September–December 2021 Tajogaite eruption of La Palma Island (Spain) represents a typical example of long‐lasting, hybrid eruption with alternation, or, more often, contemporaneous emission of lava flows and tephra. The lava field extended toward the western sector of the island, while the tephra blanket was mostly dispersed NE‐SW due to a complex regional and local wind pattern. Even though the tephra blanket represents only 7%–16% of the total erupted volume, it provides fundamental insights into the overall eruptive dynamics. Based on a detailed characterization of the tephra blanket, in combination with wind, seismic tremor, and lava emission trend, we demonstrate the need of dedicated strategies for the description of hybrid, long‐lasting eruptions that account for both eruption duration and for the quantification of multiple products (tephra blanket, tephra cone, lava flows). We also show the need of dedicated strategies of short‐range ash dispersal forecasting that account for the frequent variations of eruptive and atmospheric conditions. Key Points: Tephra blanket of the 2021 Tajogaite eruption is only 7%–16% of the total volume but is key to decipher the variable eruptive dynamicsTephra blanket shows distinct layers and units at different distances from vents that well correlate with tremor and lava emission rateHybrid eruptions are best described based on both event duration and mass associated with multiple products (tephra blanket, cone, lava) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To increase the probability of detecting odour plumes, and so increase prey capture success, when winds are stable central place foraging seabirds should fly crosswind to maximize the round-trip distance covered. At present, however, there is no empirical evidence of this theoretical prediction. Here, using an extensive GPS tracking dataset, we investigate, for the first time, the foraging movements of Bulwer's petrels (Bulweria bulwerii) in the persistent North Atlantic trade winds. To test the hypotheses that, in stable winds, petrels use crosswind to maximize both the distance covered and the probability of detecting olfactory cues, we combine state-space models, generalized additive models and Gaussian plume models. Bulwer's petrels had the highest degree of selectivity for crosswinds documented to date, often leading to systematic zig-zag flights. Crosswinds maximized both the distance travelled and the probability of detecting odour plumes integrated across the round-trip (rather than at any given point along the route, which would result in energetically costly return flight). This evidence suggests that petrels plan round-trip flights at departure, integrating expected costs of homeward journeys. Our findings, which are probably true for other seabirds in similar settings, further highlight the critical role of wind in seabird foraging ecology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Modelling atmospheric dispersal of volcanic ash and aerosols is becoming increasingly valuable for assessing the potential impacts of explosive volcanic eruptions on buildings, air quality, and aviation. Management of volcanic risk and reduction of aviation impacts can strongly benefit from quantitative forecasting of volcanic ash. However, an accurate prediction of volcanic aerosol concentrations using numerical modelling relies on proper estimations of multiple model parameters which are prone to errors. Uncertainties in key parameters such as eruption column height and physical properties of particles or meteorological fields represent a major source of error affecting the forecast quality. The availability of near-real-time geostationary satellite observations with high spatial and temporal resolutions provides the opportunity to improve forecasts in an operational context by incorporating observations into numerical models. Specifically, ensemble-based filters aim at converting a prior ensemble of system states into an analysis ensemble by assimilating a set of noisy observations. Previous studies dealing with volcanic ash transport have demonstrated that a significant improvement of forecast skill can be achieved by this approach. In this work, we present a new implementation of an ensemble-based data assimilation (DA) method coupling the FALL3D dispersal model and the Parallel Data Assimilation Framework (PDAF). The FALL3D+PDAF system runs in parallel, supports online-coupled DA, and can be efficiently integrated into operational workflows by exploiting high-performance computing (HPC) resources. Two numerical experiments are considered: (i) a twin experiment using an incomplete dataset of synthetic observations of volcanic ash and (ii) an experiment based on the 2019 Raikoke eruption using real observations of SO2 mass loading. An ensemble-based Kalman filtering technique based on the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF) is used to assimilate satellite-retrieved data of column mass loading. We show that this procedure may lead to nonphysical solutions and, consequently, conclude that LETKF is not the best approach for the assimilation of volcanic aerosols. However, we find that a truncated state constructed from the LETKF solution approaches the real solution after a few assimilation cycles, yielding a dramatic improvement of forecast quality when compared to simulations without assimilation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Volcanic eruptions are among the most jeopardizing natural events due to their potential impacts on life, assets, and the environment. In particular, atmospheric dispersal of volcanic tephra and aerosols during explosive eruptions poses a serious threat to life and has significant consequences for infrastructures and global aviation safety. The volcanic island of Jan Mayen, located in the North Atlantic under trans-continental air traffic routes, is considered the northernmost active volcanic area in the world with at least five eruptive periods recorded during the last 200 years. However, quantitative hazard assessments on the possible consequences for the air traffic of a future ash-forming eruption at Jan Mayen are nonexistent. This study presents the first comprehensive long-term volcanic hazard assessment for the volcanic island of Jan Mayen in terms of ash dispersal and concentration at different flight levels. In order to delve into the characterization and modeling of that potential impact, a probabilistic approach based on merging a large number of numerical simulations is adopted, varying the volcano's eruption source parameters (ESPs) and meteorological scenario. Each ESP value is randomly sampled following a continuous probability density function (PDF) based on the Jan Mayen geological record. Over 20 years of meteorological data is considered in order to explore the natural variability associated with weather conditions and is used to run thousands of simulations of the ash dispersal model FALL3D on a 2 km resolution grid. The simulated scenarios are combined to produce probability maps of airborne ash concentration, arrival time, and persistence of unfavorable conditions at flight levels 50 and 250 (FL050 and FL250). The resulting maps can serve as an aid during the development of civil protection strategies, to decision-makers and aviation stakeholders, in assessing and preventing the potential impact of a future ash-rich eruption at Jan Mayen. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Modelling atmospheric dispersal of volcanic ash and aerosols is becoming increasingly valuable for assessing the potential impacts of explosive volcanic eruptions on infrastructures, air quality, and aviation. Management of volcanic risk and reduction of aviation impacts can strongly benefit from quantitative forecasting of volcanic ash. However, an accurate prediction of volcanic aerosol concentrations using numerical modelling relies on proper estimations of multiple model parameters which are prone to errors. Uncertainties in key parameters such as eruption column height, physical properties of particles or meteorological fields, represent a major source of error affecting the forecast quality. The availability of near-real-time geostationary satellite observations with high spatial and temporal resolutions provides the opportunity to improve forecasts in an operational context by incorporating observations into numerical models. Specifically, ensemble-based filters aim at converting a prior ensemble of system states into an analysis ensemble by assimilating a set of noisy observations. Previous studies dealing with volcanic ash transport have demonstrated that a significant improvement of forecast skill can be achieved by this approach. In this work, we present a new implementation of an ensemble-based Data Assimilation (DA) method coupling the FALL3D dispersal model and the Parallel Data Assimilation Framework (PDAF). The FALL3D+PDAF system runs in parallel, supports online-coupled DA and can be efficiently integrated into operational workflows by exploiting high-performance computing (HPC) resources. Two numerical experiments are considered: (i) a twin experiment using an incomplete dataset of synthetic observations of volcanic ash and, (ii) an experiment based on the 2019 Raikoke eruption using real observations of SO2 mass loading. An ensemble-based Kalman filtering technique based on the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) is used to assimilate satellite-retrieved data of column mass loading. We show that this procedure may lead to nonphysical solutions and, consequently, conclude that LETKF is not the best approach for the assimilation of volcanic aerosols. However, we find that a truncated state constructed from the LETKF solution approaches the real solution after a few assimilation cycles, yielding a dramatic improvement of forecast quality when compared to simulations without assimilation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Volcanic eruptions are amongst the most jeopardizing natural events due to their potential impacts on life, assets, and environment. In particular, atmospheric dispersal of volcanic tephra and aerosols during the explosive eruptions poses a serious threat to life and has significant consequences for infrastructures and global aviation safety. The volcanic island of Jan Mayen, located in the North Atlantic under trans-continental air traffic routes, is considered the northernmost active volcanic area in the world, with at least five eruptive periods recorded during the last 200 years. However, quantitative hazard assessments on the possible consequences for air traffic of a future ash-forming eruption are nonexistent. This study presents the first comprehensive long-term volcanic hazard assessment for Jan Mayen volcanic island in terms of ash dispersal and airborne tephra concentration at different flight levels. In order to delve in the characterization and modelling of that potential impact, a probabilistic approach based on merging a large number of numerical simulations is adopted, varying the volcano's Eruptive Source Parameters (ESPs) and meteorological scenario. Each ESP value is randomly sampled following a continuous Probability Density Function (PDF) defined from the Jan Mayen geological record. Over 20 years of climatic data are considered in order to explore the natural variability associated with meteorological conditions and used to run thousands of simulations of the ash dispersal model FALL3D on a 2 km-resolution grid. The simulated scenarios are combined to produce probability maps of airborne ash concentration, arrival time and persistence at different flight levels in the atmosphere. The resulting maps represent an aid to civil protection, decision makers and aviation stakeholders in assessing and preventing the potential impact from a future eruption at Jan Mayen. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents model validation results for the latest version release of the FALL3D atmospheric transport model. The code has been redesigned from scratch to incorporate different categories of species and to overcome legacy issues that precluded its preparation towards extreme-scale computing. The model validation is based on the new FALL3D-8.0 test suite, which comprises a set of four real case studies that encapsulate the major features of the model; namely, the simulation of long-range fine volcanic ash dispersal, volcanic SO 2 dispersal, tephra fallout deposits and the dispersal and deposition of radionuclides. The first two test suite cases (i.e. the June 2011 Puyehue-Cordón Caulle ash cloud and the June 2019 Raikoke SO 2 cloud) are validated against geostationary satellite retrievals and demonstrate the new FALL3D data insertion scheme. The metrics used to validate the volcanic ash and SO 2 simulations are the structure, amplitude and location (SAL) metric and the figure of merit in space (FMS). The other two test suite cases (i.e. the February 2013 Mt. Etna ash cloud and associated tephra fallout deposit, and the dispersal of radionuclides resulting from the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear accident) are validated with scattered ground-based observations of deposit load and local particle grain size distributions and with measurements from the Radioactivity Environmental Monitoring database. For validation of tephra deposit loads and radionuclides, we use two variants of the normalised root-mean-square error metric. We find that FALL3D-8.0 simulations initialised with data insertion consistently improve agreement with satellite retrievals at all lead times up to 48 h for both volcanic ash and SO 2 simulations. In general, SAL scores lower than 1.5 and FMS scores greater than 0.40 indicate acceptable agreement with satellite retrievals of volcanic ash and SO 2. In addition, we show very good agreement, across several orders of magnitude, between the model and observations for the 2013 Mt. Etna and 1986 Chernobyl case studies. Our results, along with the validation datasets provided in the publicly available test suite, form the basis for future improvements to FALL3D (version 8 or later) and also allow for model intercomparison studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This manuscript presents different application cases and validation results of the latest version release of the FALL3D-8.0 model, an open-source atmospheric transport model. The code has been redesigned from scratch to incorporate different categories of species and to overcome legacy issues that precluded its preparation towards extreme-scale computing. Validation results are shown for long-range dispersal of fine volcanic ash and SO2 clouds, tephra fallout deposits and dispersal and ground deposition of radionuclides. The first two examples (i.e. the 2011 Puyehue-Cordón Caulle and 2019 Raikoke eruptions) make use of geostationary satellite retrievals for two purposes: first, to furnish an initial data insertion condition for the model; and second, to validate the time series of model outputs against the satellite retrievals. The metrics used to validate the model simulations of volcanic ash and SO2 are the Structure, Amplitude and Location (SAL) metric and the Figure of Merit in Space (FMS). The other two application cases are validated with scattered ground-based observations of deposit load and local particle grain size distributions from the 23 February 2013 Mt. Etna eruption and with measurements from the Radioactivity Environmental Monitoring (REM) database during the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear accident. Simulation results indicate that FALL3D-8.0 outperforms previous code versions both in terms of model accuracy and code performance. We also find that simulations initialised with the new data insertion scheme consistently improve agreement with satellite retrievals at all lead times out to 48 hours for both SO2 and long-range fine ash simulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents FALL3D-8.0, the last version release of an open-source code with 15+ years of track record and a growing number of users in the volcanological and atmospheric communities. The code has been redesigned and rewritten from scratch in the framework of the EU Centre of Excellence for Exascale in Solid Earth (ChEESE) in order to overcome legacy issues and allow for successive optimisations in the preparation of the code towards extreme-scale computing. However, this baseline version already contains substantial improvements in terms of model physics, solving algorithms, and code accuracy and performance. The code, originally conceived for atmospheric dispersal and deposition of tephra particles, has been extended to model other types of particles, aerosols and radionuclides. The solving strategy has also been changed, replacing the former central-difference scheme for a high-resolution central-upwind scheme derived from finite volumes, which minimises numerical diffusion even in the presence of sharp concentration gradients and discontinuities. The parallelisation strategy, input/output (I/O), model pre-process workflows and memory management have also been reconsidered, leading to substantial improvements on code scalability, efficiency and overall capability to handle much larger problems. All these new features and improvements have implications on operational model performance and allow, among others, adding data assimilation and ensemble forecast in future releases. This paper details the FALL3D-8.0 model physics and the numerical implementation of the code. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This manuscript presents FALL3D-8.0, the last version release of an open-source code with 15+ years of track record and a growing number of users in the volcanological and atmospheric communities. The code has been redesigned and rewritten from scratch in the framework of the EU Center of Excellence for Exascale in Solid Earth (ChEESE) in order to overcome legacy issues and allow for successive optimisations that are already planned in the preparation of the code towards extreme-scale computing. However, this baseline version already contains substantial improvements in terms of model physics, solving algorithms, and code accuracy and performance. The code, originally conceived for atmospheric dispersal and deposition of tephra particles, has been extended to model other types of particles, aerosols and radionuclides. The solving strategy has also been changed, replacing the former central-differences scheme for a high-resolution central-upwind scheme derived from finite volumes, which minimises numerical diffusion even in presence of sharp concentration gradients and discontinuities. The parallelisation strategy, Input/Output (I/O), model pre-process workflows and memory management have also been reconsidered, leading to substantial improvements on code scalability, efficiency, and overall capability to handle much larger problems. This paper details the FALL3D-8.0 model physics and the numerical implementation of the code. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Quantitative volcanic ash cloud forecasts are prone to uncertainties coming from the source term quantification (e.g., the eruption strength or vertical distribution of the emitted particles), with consequent implications for an operational ash impact assessment. We present an ensemble-based data assimilation and forecast system for volcanic ash dispersal and deposition aimed at reducing uncertainties related to eruption source parameters. The FALL3D atmospheric dispersal model is coupled with the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) data assimilation technique by combining ash mass loading observations with ash dispersal simulations in order to obtain a better joint estimation of the 3-D ash concentration and source parameters. The ETKF–FALL3D data assimilation system is evaluated by performing observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) in which synthetic observations of fine ash mass loadings are assimilated. The evaluation of the ETKF–FALL3D system, considering reference states of steady and time-varying eruption source parameters, shows that the assimilation process gives both better estimations of ash concentration and time-dependent optimized values of eruption source parameters. The joint estimation of concentrations and source parameters leads to a better analysis and forecast of the 3-D ash concentrations. The results show the potential of the methodology to improve volcanic ash cloud forecasts in operational contexts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Quantitative volcanic ash cloud forecasts are prone to uncertainties coming from the source term quantification (e.g. eruption strength or vertical distribution of the emitted particles), with consequent implications on operational ash impact assessment. We present an ensemble-based data assimilation and forecast system for volcanic ash dispersal and deposition aimed at reducing uncertainties related to eruption source parameters. The FALL3D atmospheric dispersal model is coupled with the Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (ETKF) data assimilation technique by combining ash mass loading observations with ash dispersal simulations in order to obtain a better joint estimation of 3D ash concentration and source parameters. The ETKF-FALL3D data assimilation system is evaluated performing Observation System Simulation Experiments (OSSE) in which synthetic observations of fine ash mass loadings are assimilated. The evaluation of the ETKF-FALL3D system considering reference states of steady and time-varying eruption source parameters shows that the assimilation process gives both better estimations of ash concentration and time-dependent optimized values of eruption source parameters. The joint estimation of concentrations and source parameters leads to a better analysis and forecast of the 3D ash concentrations. Results show the potential of the methodology to improve volcanic ash cloud forecasts in operational contexts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Microscale computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models can be used for wind resource assessment on complex terrains. These models generally assume neutral atmospheric stratification, an assumption that can lead to inaccurate modeling results and to large uncertainties at certain sites. We propose a methodology for wind resource evaluation based on unsteady Reynolds averaged Navier‐Stokes (URANS) simulations of diurnal cycles including the effect of thermal stratification. Time‐dependent boundary conditions are generated by a 1D precursor to drive 3D diurnal cycle simulations for a given geostrophic wind direction sector. Time instants of the cycle representative of four thermal stability regimes are sampled within diurnal cycle simulations and combined with masts time series to obtain the wind power density (WPD). The methodology has been validated on a complex site instrumented with seven met masts. The WPD spatial distribution is in good agreement with observations with the mean absolute error improving 17.1% with respect to the neutral stratification assumption. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper presents a novel methodology for mesoscale‐to‐microscale downscaling of near‐surface wind fields. The model chain consists on the Weather Research and Forecast mesoscale model and the Alya‐CFDWind microscale model (assuming neutral stability). The downscaling methodology combines precomputed microscale simulations with a mesoscale forecast using a domain segmentation technique and transfer functions. As a result, the downscaled wind field preserves the mesoscale pattern but, at the same time, incorporates local mesoscale subgrid terrain effects, particularly at valleys and channelling zones. The methodology has been validated over a 9‐month period on a very complex terrain site instrumented with a dense observational network of meteorological masts. With respect to mesoscale results, the global skills of the downscaled wind at masts improve for wind direction and remain similar for wind velocity. However, a substantial improvement occurs under stable and neutral conditions and for high wind velocity regimes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Volcanic ash modeling systems are used to simulate the atmospheric dispersion of volcanic ash and to generate forecasts that quantify the impacts from volcanic eruptions on infrastructures, air quality, aviation, and climate. The efficiency of response and mitigation actions is directly associated with the accuracy of the volcanic ash cloud detection and modeling systems. Operational forecasts build on offline coupled modeling systems in which meteorological variables are updated at the specified coupling intervals. Despite the concerns from other communities regarding the accuracy of this strategy, the quantification of the systematic errors and shortcomings associated with the offline modeling systems has received no attention. This paper employs the NMMB-MONARCH-ASH model to quantify these errors by employing different quantitative and categorical evaluation scores. The skills of the offline coupling strategy are compared against those from an online forecast considered to be the best estimate of the true outcome. Case studies are considered for a synthetic eruption with constant eruption source parameters and for two historical events, which suitably illustrate the severe aviation disruptive effects of European (2010 Eyjafjallajökull) and South American (2011 Cordón Caulle) volcanic eruptions. Evaluation scores indicate that systematic errors due to the offline modeling are of the same order of magnitude as those associated with the source term uncertainties. In particular, traditional offline forecasts employed in operational model setups can result in significant uncertainties, failing to reproduce, in the worst cases, up to 45-70% of the ash cloud of an online forecast. These inconsistencies are anticipated to be even more relevant in scenarios in which the meteorological conditions change rapidly in time. The outcome of this paper encourages operational groups responsible for real-time advisories for aviation to consider employing computationally efficient online dispersal models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atmospheric dispersal of a gas denser than air can threat the environment and surrounding communities if the terrain and meteorological conditions favour its accumulation in topographic depressions, thereby reaching toxic concentration levels. Numerical modelling of atmospheric gas dispersion constitutes a useful tool for gas hazard assessment studies, essential for planning risk mitigation actions. In complex terrains, microscale winds and local orographic features can have a strong influence on the gas cloud behaviour, potentially leading to inaccurate results if not captured by coarser-scale modelling. We introduce a methodology for microscale wind field characterisation based on transfer functions that couple a mesoscale numerical weather prediction model with a microscale computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model for the atmospheric boundary layer. The resulting time-dependent high-resolution microscale wind field is used as input for a shallow-layer gas dispersal model (TWODEE-2.1) to simulate the time evolution of CO2 gas concentration at different heights above the terrain. The strategy is applied to review simulations of the 1986 Lake Nyos event in Cameroon, where a huge CO2 cloud released by a limnic eruption spread downslopes from the lake, suffocating thousands of people and animals across the Nyos and adjacent secondary valleys. Besides several new features introduced in the new version of the gas dispersal code (TWODEE-2.1), we have also implemented a novel impact criterion based on the percentage of human fatalities depending on CO2 concentration and exposure time. New model results are quantitatively validated using the reported percentage of fatalities at several locations. The comparison with previous simulations that assumed coarser-scale steady winds and topography illustrates the importance of highresolution modelling in complex terrains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

On 13 June 2015, the London Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre (VAAC) warned the Buenos Aires VAAC about a possible volcanic eruption from the Nevados Ojos del Salado volcano (6879 m), located in the Andes mountain range on the border between Chile and Argentina. A volcanic ash cloud was detected by the SEVIRI instrument on board the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellites from 14:00 UTC on 13 June. In this paper, we provide the first comprehensive description of this event through observations and numerical simulations. Our results support the hypothesis that the phenomenon was caused by wind remobilization of ancient pyroclastic deposits (ca. 4.5 ka Cerro Blanco eruption) from the Bolsón de Fiambalá (Fiambalá Basin) in northwestern Argentina. We have investigated the spatiotemporal distribution of aerosols and the emission process over complex terrain to gain insight into the key role played by the orography and the condition that triggered the long-range transport episode. Numerical simulations of windblown dust were performed using the ARW(Advanced Research WRF) core of the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) model (WRF-ARW) and FALL3D modeling system with meteorological fields downscaled to a spatial resolution of 2 km in order to resolve the complex orography of the area. Results indicate that favorable conditions to generate dust uplifting occurred in northern Fiambalá Basin, where orographic effects caused strong surface winds. According to short-range numerical simulations, dust particles were confined to near-ground layers around the emission areas. In contrast, dust aerosols were injected up to 5-6 km high in central and southern regions of the Fiambalá Basin, where intense ascending airflows are driven by horizontal convergence. Long-range transport numerical simulations were also performed to model the dust cloud spreading over northern Argentina. Results of simulated vertical particle column mass were compared with the MSG-SEVIRI retrieval product. We tested two numerical schemes: with the default configuration of the FALL3D model, we found difficulties to simulate transport through orographic barriers, whereas an alternative configuration, using a numerical scheme to more accurately compute the horizontal advection in abrupt terrains, substantially improved the model performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Volcanic ash modeling systems are used to simulate the atmospheric dispersion of volcanic ash and to generate forecasts that quantify the impacts from volcanic eruptions on infrastructures, air quality, aviation, and climate. The efficiency of response and mitigation actions is directly associated to the accuracy of the volcanic ash cloud detection and modeling systems. Operational forecasts build on off-line coupled modeling systems where meteorological variables are updated at the specified coupling intervals. Despite the concerns from other communities regarding the accuracy of this strategy, the quantification of the systematic errors and shortcomings associated to the off-line modeling systems has received no attention. This paper employs the NMMB-MONARCH-ASH model to quantify these errors by employing different quantitative and categorical evaluation scores. The skills of the off-line coupling strategy are compared against those from an on-line forecast considered to be the best estimate of the true outcome. Case studies are considered for a synthetic eruption with constant eruption source parameters and for two historical events, which suitably illustrate the severe aviation disruptive effects of European (2010 Eyjafjallajökull) and South-American (2011 Cordón Caulle) volcanic eruptions. Evaluation scores indicate that systematic errors credited to off-line modeling are of the same order of magnitude that those associated to the source term uncertainties. In particular, traditional off-line forecasts employed in operational model setups can result in significant uncertainties, failing to reproduce, in the worst cases, up to 45-70% of the ash cloud of an on-line forecast. These inconsistencies are anticipated to be even more relevant in scenarios where the meteorological conditions change rapidly in time. The outcome of this paper encourages operational groups responsible for realtime advisories for aviation to consider employing computationally efficient on-line dispersal models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Traditionally, tephra transport and dispersal models have evolved decoupled (offline) from numerical weather prediction models. There is a concern that inconsistencies and shortcomings associated with this coupling strategy might lead to errors in the ash cloud forecast. Despite this concern and the significant progress in improving the accuracy of tephra dispersal models in the aftermath of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull and 2011 Cordón Caulle eruptions, to date, no operational online dispersal model is available to forecast volcanic ash. Here, we describe and evaluate NMMB-MONARCH-ASH, a new online multi-scale meteorological and transport model that attempts to pioneer the forecast of volcanic aerosols at operational level. The model forecasts volcanic ash cloud trajectories, concentration of ash at relevant flight levels, and the expected deposit thickness for both regional and global configurations. Its online coupling approach improves the current state-of-the-art tephra dispersal models, especially in situations where meteorological conditions are changing rapidly in time, two-way feedbacks are significant, or distal ash cloud dispersal simulations are required. This work presents the model application for the first phases of the 2011 Cordón Caulle and 2001 Mount Etna eruptions. The computational efficiency of NMMB-MONARCH-ASH and its application results compare favorably with other long-range tephra dispersal models, supporting its operational implementation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

On the 13 June 2015, the London Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre (VAAC) warned the Buenos Aires VAAC about a possible volcanic eruption from the Nevados Ojos del Salado volcano (6879 m), located in the Andes mountain range on the border between Chile and Argentina. A volcanic ash cloud was detected by the SEVIRI instrument on board the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellites from 14:00 UTC on 13 June. Further studies concluded that the phenomenon was caused by remobilization of ancient pyroclastic deposits (circa 4.5 Ka Cerro Blanco eruption) from the Bolsón de Fiambalá (Fiambalá Basin) in northwestern Argentina. In this paper, we provide the first comprehensive description of the dust episode through observations and numerical simulations. We have investigated the spatio-temporal distribution of aerosols and the emission process over complex terrain to gain insight into the key role played by the orography and the condition that triggered the long-range transport episode. Numerical simulations of windblown dust were performed using the WRF-ARW/FALL3D modeling system with meteorological fields downscaled to a spatial resolution of 2 km in order to resolve the complex orography of the area. Results indicated that favourable conditions to generate dust uplifting occurred in northern Fiambalá Basin, where orographic effects caused strong surface winds. According to short-range numerical simulations, dust particles were confined to near-ground layers around the emission areas. On the other hand, dust aerosols were injected up to 5-6 km high in central and southern regions of the Fiambalá Basin, where intense ascending airflows are driven by horizontal convergence. Long-range transport numerical simulations were also performed to model dust cloud spreading over northern Argentina. Results of simulated vertical particle column mass were compared with the MSG-SEVIRI retrieval product. We tested two numerical schemes: with the default configuration of the FALL3D model, we found difficulties to simulate transport through orographic barriers, whereas an alternative configuration, using a numerical scheme to more accurately compute the horizontal advection in abrupt terrains, substantially improved the model performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atmospheric dispersal of a gas denser than air can threat the environment and surrounding communities if the terrain and meteorological conditions favor its accumulation in topographic depressions, thereby reaching toxic concentration levels. Numerical modeling of atmospheric gas dispersion constitutes a useful tool for gas hazard assessment studies, essential for planning risk mitigation actions. In complex terrains, microscale winds and local orographic features can have a strong influence on the gas cloud behavior, potentially leading to inaccurate results if not captured by coarser-scale modeling. We introduce a methodology for microscale wind field characterization based on transfer functions that couple a mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction Model with a microscale Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) model for the atmospheric boundary layer. The resulting time-dependent high-resolution microscale wind field is used as input for a shallow-layer gas dispersal model (TWODEE-2.1) to simulate the time evolution of CO2 gas concentration at different heights above the terrain. The strategy is applied to review simulations of the 1986 Lake Nyos event in Cameroon, where a huge CO2 cloud released by a limnic eruption spread downslopes from the lake suffocating thousands of people and animals across the Nyos and adjacent secondary valleys. Besides several new features introduced in the new version of the gas dispersal code (TWODEE-2.1), we have also implemented a novel impact criterion based on the percentage of human fatalities depending on CO2 concentration and exposure time. New model results are quantitatively validated using the reported percentage of fatalities at several locations. The comparison with previous simulations that assumed coarser-scale steady winds and topography illustrates the importance of high-resolution modeling in complex terrains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Traditionally, tephra transport and dispersal models have evolved decoupled (off-line) from numerical weather prediction models. There is a concern that inconsistencies and shortcomings associated to this coupling strategy might lead to errors in the ash cloud forecast. Despite this concern, and the significant progress to improve the accuracy of tephra dispersal models in the aftermath of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull and 2011 Cordón Caulle eruptions, to date, no operational on-line dispersal model is available to forecast volcanic ash. Here, we describe and evaluate NMMB/BSC-ASH, a new on-line multiscale meteorological and transport model that attempts to pioneer the forecast of volcanic aerosols at operational level. The model predicts volcanic ash cloud trajectories, concentration of ash at relevant flight levels, and the expected deposit thickness for both regional and global configurations. Its on-line coupling approach improves the current state-of-the-art of tephra dispersal models, especially in situations where meteorological conditions are changing rapidly in time, two-way feedbacks are significant, or distal ash cloud dispersal simulations are required. This work presents the model application for the first phases of the 2011 Cordón Caulle and 2001 Mt. Etna eruptions. The computational efficiency of NMMB/BSC-ASH and its application results compare favorably with other long-range tephra dispersal models, supporting its operational implementation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Popocatépetl is one of Mexico's most active volcanoes threatening a densely populated area that includes Mexico City with more than 20 million inhabitants. The destructive potential of this volcano is demonstrated by its Late Pleistocene-Holocene eruptive activity, which has been characterized by recurrent Plinian eruptions of large magnitude, the last two of which destroyed human settlements in pre-Hispanic times. Popocatépetl's reawakening in 1994 produced a crisis that culminated with the evacuation of two villages on the northeastern flank of the volcano. Shortly after, a monitoring system and a civil protection contingency plan based on a hazard zone map were implemented. The current volcanic hazards map considers the potential occurrence of different volcanic phenomena, including pyroclastic density currents and lahars. However, no quantitative assessment of the tephra hazard, especially related to atmospheric dispersal, has been performed. The presence of airborne volcanic ash at low and jet-cruise atmospheric levels compromises the safety of aircraft operations and forces re-routing of aircraft to prevent encounters with volcanic ash clouds. Given the high number of important airports in the surroundings of Popocatépetl volcano and considering the potential threat posed to civil aviation in Mexico and adjacent regions in case of a Plinian eruption, a hazard assessment for tephra dispersal is required. In this work, we present the first probabilistic tephra dispersal hazard assessment for Popocatépetl volcano. We compute probabilistic hazard maps for critical thresholds of airborne ash concentrations at different flight levels, corresponding to the situation defined in Europe during 2010, and still under discussion. Tephra dispersal mode is performed using the FALL3D numerical model. Probabilistic hazard maps are built for a Plinian eruptive scenario defined on the basis of geological field data for the 'Ochre Pumice' Plinian eruption (4965 C yr BP). FALL3D model input eruptive parameters are constrained through an inversion method carried out with the semi-analytical HAZMAP model and are varied by sampling them using probability density functions. We analyze the influence of seasonal variations on ash dispersal and estimate the average persistence of critical ash concentrations at relevant locations and airports. This study assesses the impact that a Plinian eruption similar to the Ochre Pumice eruption would have on the main airports of Mexico and adjacent areas. The hazard maps presented here can support long-term planning that would help minimize the impacts of such an eruption on civil aviation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We modelled the transport and deposition of ash from the June 2011 eruption from Cordón Caulle volcanic complex, Chile. The modelling strategy, currently under development at the Argentinean Naval Hydrographic Service and National Meteorological Service, couples the weather research and forecasting (WRF/ARW) meteorological model with the FALL3D ash dispersal model. The strategy uses volcanological inputs inferred from satellite imagery, eruption reports and preliminary grain-size data obtained during the first days of the eruption from an Argentinean ash sample collection network. In this sense, the results shown here can be regarded as a quasi-syn-eruptive forecast for the first 16 days of the eruption. Although this article describes the modelling process in the aftermath of the crisis, the strategy was implemented from the beginning of the eruption, and results were made available to the Buenos Aires Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers and other end users. The model predicts ash cloud trajectories, concentration of ash at relevant flight levels, expected deposit thickness and ash accumulation rates at relevant localities. Here, we validate the modelling strategy by comparing results with satellite retrievals and syn-eruptive ground deposit measurements. Results highlight the goodness of the combined WRF/ARW-FALL3D forecasting system and point out the usefulness of coupling both models for short-term forecast of volcanic ash clouds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Long-range dispersal of volcanic ash can disrupt civil aviation over large areas, as occurred during the 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland. Here we assess the hazard for civil aviation posed by volcanic ash from a potential violent Strombolian eruption of Somma-Vesuvius, the most likely scenario if eruptive activity resumed at this volcano. A Somma-Vesuvius eruption is of concern for two main reasons: (1) there is a high probability (38 %) that the eruption will be violent Strombolian, as this activity has been common in the most recent period of activity (between AD 1631 and 1944); and (2) violent Strombolian eruptions typically last longer than higher-magnitude events (from 3 to 7 days for the climactic phases) and, consequently, are likely to cause prolonged air traffic disruption (even at large distances if a substantial amount of fine ash is produced such as is typical during Vesuvius eruptions). We compute probabilistic hazard maps for airborne ash concentration at relevant flight levels using the FALL3D ash dispersal model and a statistically representative set of meteorological conditions. Probabilistic hazard maps are computed for two different ash concentration thresholds, 2 and 0.2 mg/m, which correspond, respectively, to the no-fly and enhanced procedure conditions defined in Europe during the Eyjafjallajökull eruption. The seasonal influence of ash dispersal is also analysed by computing seasonal maps. We define the persistence of ash in the atmosphere as the time that a concentration threshold is exceeded divided by the total duration of the eruption (here the eruption phase producing a sustained eruption column). The maps of averaged persistence give additional information on the expected duration of the conditions leading to flight disruption at a given location. We assess the impact that a violent Strombolian eruption would have on the main airports and aerial corridors of the Central Mediterranean area, and this assessment can help those who devise procedures to minimise the impact of these long-lasting low-intensity volcanic events on civil aviation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a result of the serious consequences of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption (Iceland) on civil aviation, 52 volcanologists, meteorologists, atmospheric dispersion modellers and space and ground-based monitoring specialists from 12 different countries (including representatives from 6 Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres and related institutions) gathered to discuss the needs of the ash dispersal modelling community, investigate new data-acquisition strategies (i.e. quantitative measurements and observations) and discuss how to improve communication between the research community and institutions with an operational mandate. Based on a dedicated benchmark exercise and on 3 days of in-depth discussion, recommendations have been made for future model improvements, new strategies of ash cloud forecasting, multidisciplinary data acquisition and more efficient communication between different communities. Issues addressed in the workshop include ash dispersal modelling, uncertainty, ensemble forecasting, combining dispersal models and observations, sensitivity analysis, model variability, data acquisition, pre-eruption forecasting, first simulation and data assimilation, research priorities and new communication strategies to improve information flow and operational routines. As a main conclusion, model developers, meteorologists, volcanologists and stakeholders need to work closely together to develop new and improved strategies for ash dispersal forecasting and, in particular, to: (1) improve the definition of the source term, (2) design models and forecasting strategies that can better characterize uncertainties, (3) explore and identify the best ensemble strategies that can be adapted to ash dispersal forecasting, (4) identify optimized strategies for the combination of models and observations and (5) implement new critical operational strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) is a multispectral satellite instrument operating from the visible to thermal infrared spectral range. FALL3D is a 3-D time-dependent Eulerian model for the transport and deposition of volcanic particles. In this letter, quantitative comparison between the volcanic cloud ash mass and optical depth retrieved by MODIS and modeled by FALL3D has been performed. Three MODIS images collected on October 28, 29, and 30 on Mt. Etna volcano during the 2002 eruption have been considered as test cases. The results show a general good agreement between the retrieved and the modeled volcanic clouds in the first 300 km from the vents. Even if the modeled volcanic cloud area is systematically wider than the retrieved area, the ash total mass is comparable and varies between 35 and 60 kt and between 20 and 42 kt for FALL3D and MODIS, respectively. The mean aerosol optical depth (AOD) values are in good agreement and approximately equal to 0.8. When the whole volcanic clouds are considered the ash areas, then the total ash masses, computed by FALL3D model, are significantly greater than the same parameters retrieved from the MODIS data, while the mean AOD values remain in very good agreement and equal to about 0.6. The volcanic cloud direction in its distal part is not coincident for the October 29 and 30, 2002 images due to the difference between the real and the modeled local wind fields. Finally, the MODIS maps show regions of high mass and AOD due to volcanic puffs not modeled by FALL3D. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Examines the ground deformation in a viscoelastic medium. Computation of numerical solutions for an axisymmetric extended source; Determination of analytical solutions for a point source using the dislocation theory and the propagator matrix technique; Assessment on the correspondence principle of linear viscoelasticity.

Resuspension of pyroclastic deposits occurs under specific atmospheric and environmental conditions and typically prolongs and exacerbates the impact associated with the primary emplacement of tephra fallout and pyroclastic density current deposits. An accurate forecasting of the phenomenon, to support Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers (VAACs) and civil aviation management, depends on adapting volcanic ash transport and dispersion models to include specific ash emission schemes. Few studies have attempted to model the mechanisms of emission and transport of windblown volcanic ash, and a systematic study of observed cases has not been carried out yet. This manuscript combines numerical simulations along with a variety of observational data to examine the general features of ash resuspension events in northern Patagonia following the 2011 Cordón Caulle eruption (Chile). The associated outcomes provide new insights into the spatial distribution of sources, frequency of events, transport patterns, seasonal and diurnal variability, and spatio-temporal distribution of airborne ash. A novel modelling approach based on the coupling between Advanced Research core of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) and FALL3D models is presented, with various model improvements that allow overcoming some limitations in previous ash resuspension studies. Outcomes show the importance of integrating source information based on field measurements (e.g., deposit grain size distribution and particle density). We provide evidence of a strong diurnal and seasonal variability associated with the ash resuspension activity in Patagonia. According to the modelled emission fluxes, ash resuspension activity was found to be significantly more intense during daytime hours. Satellite observations and numerical simulations strongly suggest that major emission sources of resuspended ash were distributed across distal areas (>100 km from the vent) of the Patagonian steppe, covered by a thin layer of fine ash. The importance of realistic soil moisture data to properly model the spatial distribution of emission sources is also highlighted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]