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Background: We used two models to simulate a proposed noninferiority trial of radiotherapy (RT) omission in low-risk invasive breast cancer to illustrate how modeling could be used to predict the trial's outcomes, inform trial design, and contribute to practice debates.Methods: The proposed trial was a prospective randomized trial of no-RT vs RT in women age 40 to 74 years undergoing lumpectomy and endocrine therapy for hormone receptor-positive, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-negative, stage I breast cancer with an Oncotype DX score of 18 or lower. The primary endpoint was recurrence-free interval (RFI), including locoregional recurrence, distant recurrence, and breast cancer death. Noninferiority required the two-sided 90% confidence interval of the RFI hazard ratio (HR) for no-RT vs RT to be entirely below 1.7. Model inputs included published data. The trial was simulated 1000 times, and results were summarized as percent concluding noninferiority and mean (standard deviation) of hazard ratios for Model GE and Model M, respectively.Results: Noninferiority was demonstrated in 18.0% and 3.7% for the two models. The respective means (SD) of the RFI hazard ratios were 1.8 (0.7) and 2.4 (0.9); most were locoregional recurrences. The mean five-year RFI rates for no-RT vs RT (SD) were 92.7% (2.9%) vs 95.5% (2.2%) and 88.4% (2.0%) vs 94.5% (1.6%). Both models showed little or no difference in breast cancer-specific or overall survival. Alternative definitions of low risk based on combinations of age and grade produced similar results.Conclusions: The proposed trial was unlikely to show noninferiority of omitting radiotherapy even using alternative definitions of low-risk, as the endpoint included local recurrence. Future trials regarding radiotherapy should address absolute reduction in recurrence and impact of type of recurrence on the patient. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Radiotherapy after breast conservation has become the standard of care. Prior meta-analyses on effects of radiotherapy predated availability of gene expression profiling (GEP) to assess recurrence risk and/or did not include all relevant outcomes. This analysis used GEP information with pooled individual-level data to evaluate the impact of omitting radiotherapy on recurrence and mortality.Methods: We considered trials that evaluated or administered radiotherapy after lumpectomy in women with low-risk breast cancer. Women included had undergone lumpectomy and were treated with hormonal therapy for stage I, ER+ and/or PR+, HER2- breast cancer with Oncotype scores no greater than 18. Recurrence-free interval (RFI), type of RFI (locoregional or distant), and breast cancer-specific and overall survival were compared between no radiotherapy and radiotherapy using adjusted Cox models. All statistical tests were two-sided.Results: The final sample included 1778 women from seven trials. Omission of radiotherapy was associated with an overall adjusted hazard ratio of 2.59 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.38 to 4.89, P = .003) for RFI. There was a statistically significant increase in any first locoregional recurrence (P = .001), but not distant recurrence events (P = .90), or breast cancer-specific (P = .85) or overall survival (P = .61). Five-year RFI rate was high (93.5% for no radiotherapy vs 97.9% for radiotherapy; absolute reduction = 4.4%, 95% CI = 0.7% to 8.1%, P = .03). The effects of radiotherapy varied across subgroups, with lower RFI rates for those with Oncotype scores of less than 11 (vs 11-18), older (vs younger), and ER+/PR+ status (vs other).Conclusions: Omission of radiotherapy in hormone-sensitive patients with low recurrence risk may lead to a modest increase in locoregional recurrence event rates, but does not appear to increase the rate of distant recurrence or death. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Radiotherapy (RT) with concurrent cisplatin (CRT) is standard treatment for locally advanced cervical cancer. However, not all patients benefit from the addition of cisplatin to RT alone. This study explored the value of pretreatment tumor interstitial fluid pressure (IFP) and hypoxia measurements as predictors of cisplatin response in 291 patients who were treated with RT (1994-1998) or RT plus concurrent cisplatin (1999-2009). Clinical characteristics were similar between the two groups, apart from a greater proportion of patients with pelvic lymph node metastases and hypoxic tumors in the CRT cohort. Patients were followed for a median duration of 5.6 years. Information about recurrence and survival was recorded prospectively. The addition of cisplatin to RT improved survival compared to treatment with RT alone (HR 0.61, p = 0.0097). This improvement was confined to patients with high-IFP tumors at diagnosis (HR 0.40, p = 0.00091). There was no benefit of adding cisplatin in those with low-IFP tumors (HR 1.05, p = 0.87). There was no difference in the effectiveness of cisplatin in patients with more or less hypoxic tumors. In conclusion, patients with locally advanced cervical cancer and high tumor IFP at diagnosis have greater benefit from the addition of cisplatin to RT than those with low IFP. This may reflect high tumor cell proliferation, which is known to influence IFP, local tumor control and patient survival. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BACKGROUND: Hedgehog (Hh) signaling was assessed in patients with primary cervical carcinoma who were receiving chemoradiation. Because the up-regulation of Hh has been reported in response to hypoxia, the authors examined associations between Hh gene expression and measurements of HP5 (the percentage of oxygen pressure readings in each tumor <5 mm Hg) and interstitial fluid pressure (IFP). METHODS: Sonic hedgehog (SHH), Indian hedgehog (IHH), patched 1 and 2 (PTCH1 and PTCH2), smoothened (SMO), and glioma-associated oncogene family zinc finger 1 (Gli1) expression levels were determined using quantitative reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction analysis on 85 frozen samples of primary cervical carcinoma and on 16 normal cervical samples. Clinicopathologic data were collected prospectively. Possible correlations between Hh expression and tumor hypoxia (HP5 and IFP) measured at the time of biopsy, the time to local recurrence, and disease-free survival (DFS) were examined. RESULTS: At least 1 member of the Hh pathway was elevated in all but 1 tumor compared with normal tissue ( P < .0001). Hh gene expression was heterogeneous with SHH, IHH, and GLI exhibiting bimodal distribution. Elevation of SHH expression ( P = .04) and low SMO expression ( P = .0007) were associated with HP5. The risk of local recurrence was associated with the up-regulation of SMO (hazard ratio [HR], 2.41; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.00-5.82; P = .044), the up-regulation of >3 Hh genes (HR, 2.56; 95% CI, 1.09-6.00; P = .026), tumor size (HR, 1.41; 95% CI, 1.14-1.74; P = .0015), and lymph node-positive disease (HR, 2.82; 95% CI, 1.16-6.86; P = .022). CONCLUSIONS: The proportion of tumors that expressed Hh genes in cervical cancer was very high. The current data support a role for the Hh pathway in repopulation after chemoradiation and suggest that SMO may be a valid therapeutic target. The authors concluded that further investigation into this pathway after radiation and Hh inhibition are warranted. Cancer 2012;118: 3105-15. © 2011 American Cancer Society. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]